Birth size and breast cancer risk: re-analysis of individual participant data from 32 studies

Background

Birth size, perhaps a proxy for prenatal environment, might be a correlate of subsequent breast cancer risk, but findings from epidemiological studies have been inconsistent. We re-analysed individual participant data from published and unpublished studies to obtain more precise estimates of the magnitude and shape of the birth size–breast cancer association.

Methods and Findings

Studies were identified through computer-assisted and manual searches, and personal communication with investigators. Individual participant data from 32 studies, comprising 22,058 breast cancer cases, were obtained. Random effect models were used, if appropriate, to combine study-specific estimates of effect. Birth weight was positively associated with breast cancer risk in studies based on birth records (pooled relative risk [RR] per one standard deviation [SD] [= 0.5 kg] increment in birth weight: 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02–1.09) and parental recall when the participants were children (1.02; 95% CI 0.99–1.05), but not in those based on adult self-reports, or maternal recall during the woman''s adulthood (0.98; 95% CI 0.95–1.01) (p for heterogeneity between data sources = 0.003). Relative to women who weighed 3.000–3.499 kg, the risk was 0.96 (CI 0.80–1.16) in those who weighed < 2.500 kg, and 1.12 (95% CI 1.00–1.25) in those who weighed ≥ 4.000 kg (p for linear trend = 0.001) in birth record data. Birth length and head circumference from birth records were also positively associated with breast cancer risk (pooled RR per one SD increment: 1.06 [95% CI 1.03–1.10] and 1.09 [95% CI 1.03–1.15], respectively). Simultaneous adjustment for these three birth size variables showed that length was the strongest independent predictor of risk. The birth size effects did not appear to be confounded or mediated by established breast cancer risk factors and were not modified by age or menopausal status. The cumulative incidence of breast cancer per 100 women by age 80 y in the study populations was estimated to be 10.0, 10.0, 10.4, and 11.5 in those who were, respectively, in the bottom, second, third, and top fourths of the birth length distribution.

Conclusions

This pooled analysis of individual participant data is consistent with birth size, and in particular birth length, being an independent correlate of breast cancer risk in adulthood.     

Lifetime prevalence of mental disorders in Lebanon: first onset, treatment, and exposure to war

Background

There are no published data on national lifetime prevalence and treatment of mental disorders in the Arab region. Furthermore, the effect of war on first onset of disorders has not been addressed previously on a national level, especially in the Arab region. Thus, the current study aims at investigating the lifetime prevalence, treatment, age of onset of mental disorders, and their relationship to war in Lebanon.

Methods and Findings

The Lebanese Evaluation of the Burden of Ailments and Needs Of the Nation study was carried out on a nationally representative sample of the Lebanese population (n = 2,857 adults). Respondents were interviewed using the fully structured WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0. Lifetime prevalence of any Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fourth edition (DSM-IV) disorder was 25.8%. Anxiety (16.7%) and mood (12.6%) were more common than impulse control (4.4%) and substance (2.2%) disorders. Only a minority of people with any mental disorder ever received professional treatment, with substantial delays (6 to 28 y) between the onset of disorders and onset of treatment. War exposure increased the risk of first onset of anxiety (odds ratio [OR] 5.92, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.5–14.1), mood (OR 3.32, 95% CI 2.0–5.6), and impulse control disorders (OR 12.72, 95% CI 4.5–35.7).

Conclusions

About one-fourth of the sample (25.8%) met criteria for at least one of the DSM-IV disorders at some point in their lives. There is a substantial unmet need for early identification and treatment. Exposure to war events increases the odds of first onset of mental disorders.     

Risk of subsequent coronary heart disease in patients hospitalized for immune-mediated diseases: a nationwide follow-up study from Sweden

Background

Certain immune-mediated diseases (IMDs), such as rheumatoid arthritis and systemic lupus erythematosus, have been linked to cardiovascular disorders. We examined whether there is an association between 32 different IMDs and risk of subsequent hospitalization for coronary heart disease (CHD) related to coronary atherosclerosis in a nationwide follow up study in Sweden.

Methods and Findings

All individuals in Sweden hospitalized with a main diagnosis of an IMD (n = 336,479) without previous or coexisting CHD, between January 1, 1964 and December 31 2008, were followed for first hospitalization for CHD. The reference population was the total population of Sweden. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for CHD were calculated. Overall risk of CHD during the first year after hospitalization for an IMD was 2.92 (95% CI 2.84–2.99). Twenty-seven of the 32 IMDs studied were associated with an increased risk of CHD during the first year after hospitalization. The overall risk of CHD decreased over time, from 1.75 after 1–5 years (95% CI 1.73–1.78), to 1.43 after 5–10 years (95% CI 1.41–1.46) and 1.28 after 10+ years (95% CI 1.26–1.30). Females generally had higher SIRs than males. The IMDs for which the SIRs of CDH were highest during the first year after hospitalization included chorea minor 6.98 (95% CI 1.32–20.65), systemic lupus erythematosus 4.94 (95% CI 4.15–5.83), rheumatic fever 4.65 (95% CI 3.53–6.01), Hashimoto''s thyroiditis 4.30 (95% CI 3.87–4.75), polymyositis/dermatomyositis 3.81 (95% CI 2.62–5.35), polyarteritis nodosa 3.81 (95% CI 2.72–5.19), rheumatoid arthritis 3.72 (95% CI 3.56–3.88), systemic sclerosis 3.44 (95% CI 2.86–4.09), primary biliary cirrhosis 3.32 (95% CI 2.34–4.58), and autoimmune hemolytic anemia 3.17 (95% CI 2.16–4.47).

Conclusions

Most IMDs are associated with increased risk of CHD in the first year after hospital admission. Our findings suggest that many hospitalized IMDs are tightly linked to coronary atherosclerosis.     

Cortisol responses to mental stress and the progression of coronary artery calcification in healthy men and women

Background

Psychosocial stress is a risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD). The mechanisms are incompletely understood, although dysfunction of the hypothalamic pituitary adrenal (HPA) axis might be involved. We examined the association between cortisol responses to laboratory-induced mental stress and the progression of coronary artery calcification (CAC).

Methods and Results

Participants were 466 healthy men and women (mean age = 62.7±5.6 yrs), without history or objective signs of CHD, drawn from the Whitehall II epidemiological cohort. At the baseline assessment salivary cortisol was measured in response to mental stressors, consisting of a 5-min Stroop task and a 5-min mirror tracing task. CAC was measured at baseline and at 3 years follow up using electron beam computed tomography. CAC progression was defined as an increase >10 Agatston units between baseline and follow up. 38.2% of the sample demonstrated CAC progression over the 3 years follow up. There was considerable variation in the cortisol stress response, with approximately 40% of the sample responding to the stress tasks with an increase in cortisol of at least 1 mmol/l. There was an association between cortisol stress reactivity (per SD) and CAC progression (odds ratio = 1.27, 95% CI, 1.02–1.60) after adjustments for age, sex, pre-stress cortisol, employment grade, smoking, resting systolic BP, fibrinogen, body mass index, and use of statins. There was no association between systolic blood pressure reactivity and CAC progression (odds ratio per SD increase = 1.03, 95% CI, 0.85–1.24). Other independent predictors of CAC progression included age, male sex, smoking, resting systolic blood pressure, and fibrinogen.

Conclusion

Results demonstrate an association between heightened cortisol reactivity to stress and CAC progression. These data support the notion that cortisol reactivity, an index of HPA function, is one of the possible mechanisms through which psychosocial stress may influence the risk of CHD.     

Association between serum interleukin-6 concentrations and mortality in older adults: the Rancho Bernardo study

Background

Interleukin-6 (IL-6) may have a protective role in acute liver disease but a detrimental effect in chronic liver disease. It is unknown whether IL-6 is associated with risk of liver-related mortality in humans.

Aims

To determine if IL-6 is associated with an increased risk of all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, and liver-related mortality.

Methods

A prospective cohort study included 1843 participants who attended a research visit in 1984–87. Multiple covariates were ascertained including serum IL-6. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to examine the association between serum IL-6 as a continuous (log transformed) variable with all-cause, CVD, cancer, and liver-related mortality. Patients with prevalent CVD, cancer and liver disease were excluded for cause-specific mortality.

Results

The mean (± standard deviation) age and body-mass-index (BMI) of participants was 68 (±10.6) years and 25 (±3.7) Kg/m², respectively. During the 25,802 person-years of follow-up, the cumulative all-cause, CVD, cancer, and liver-related mortality were 53.1% (N = 978), 25.5%, 11.3%, and 1.3%, respectively. The median (±IQR) length of follow-up was 15.3±10.6 years. In multivariable analyses, adjusted for age, sex, alcohol, BMI, diabetes, hypertension, total cholesterol, HDL, and smoking, one-SD increment in log-transformed serum IL-6 was associated with increased risk of all-cause, CVD, cancer, and liver-related mortality, with hazard ratios of 1.48 (95% CI, 1.33–1.64), 1.38 (95% CI, 1.16–1.65), 1.35 (95% CI, 1.02–1.79), and 1.88 (95% CI, 0.97–3.67), respectively. CRP adjustment attenuated the effects but the association between IL-6 and all-cause and CVD mortality remained statistically significant, independent of CRP levels.

Conclusions

In community-dwelling older adults, serum IL-6 is associated with all-cause, CVD, cancer, and liver-related mortality.     

Raw and processed fruit and vegetable consumption and 10-year coronary heart disease incidence in a population-based cohort study in the Netherlands

Background

Prospective cohort studies have shown that high fruit and vegetable consumption is inversely associated with coronary heart disease (CHD). Whether food processing affects this association is unknown. Therefore, we quantified the association of fruit and vegetable consumption with 10-year CHD incidence in a population-based study in the Netherlands and the effect of processing on these associations.

Methods

Prospective population-based cohort study, including 20,069 men and women aged 20 to 65 years, enrolled between 1993 and 1997 and free of cardiovascular disease at baseline. Diet was assessed using a validated 178-item food frequency questionnaire. Hazard ratios (HR) were calculated for CHD incidence using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models.

Results

During a mean follow-up time of 10.5y, 245 incident cases of CHD were documented, which comprised 211 non-fatal acute myocardial infarctions and 34 fatal CHD events. The risk of CHD incidence was 34% lower for participants with a high intake of total fruit and vegetables (>475 g/d; HR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.45–0.99) compared to participants with a low total fruit and vegetable consumption (≤241 g/d). Intake of raw fruit and vegetables (>262 g/d vs ≤92 g/d; HR: 0.70; 95% CI: 0.47–1.04) as well as processed fruit and vegetables (>234 g/d vs ≤113 g/d; HR: 0.79; 95% CI: 0.54–1.16) were inversely related with CHD incidence.

Conclusion

Higher consumption of fruit and vegetables, whether consumed raw or processed, may protect against CHD incidence.     

Carotid artery intima-media thickness, carotid plaque and coronary heart disease and stroke in Chinese

Background

Our aim was to prospectively investigate the association between carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT) as well as carotid plaque and incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke in Chinese, among whom data are limited.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a community-based cohort study composed of 2190 participants free of cardiovascular disease at baseline in one community. During a median 10.5-year follow up, we documented 68 new cases of coronary heart disease and 94 cases of stroke. The multivariate relative risks (RRs) associated with a change of 1 standard deviation of maximal common carotid IMT were 1.38 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12–1.70) for CHD and 1.47 (95% CI, 1.28–1.69) for stroke. The corresponding RRs with internal carotid IMT were 1.47 (95% CI, 1.21–1.79) for CHD and 1.52 (95% CI, 1.31–1.76) for stroke. Carotid plaque measured by the degree of diameter stenosis was also significantly associated with increased risk of CHD (p for trend<0.0001) and stroke (p for trend<0.0001). However, these associations were largely attenuated when adjusting for IMT measurements.

Conclusions

This prospective study indicates a significant association between carotid IMT and incidence of CHD and stroke in Chinese adults. These measurements may be useful for cardiovascular risk assessment and stratification in Chinese.     

Cross-sectional analysis of late HAART initiation in Latin America and the Caribbean: late testers and late presenters

Background

Starting HAART in a very advanced stage of disease is assumed to be the most prevalent form of initiation in HIV-infected subjects in developing countries. Data from Latin America and the Caribbean is still lacking. Our main objective was to determine the frequency, risk factors and trends in time for being late HAART initiator (LHI) in this region.

Methodology

Cross-sectional analysis from 9817 HIV-infected treatment-naïve patients initiating HAART at 6 sites (Argentina, Chile, Haiti, Honduras, Peru and Mexico) from October 1999 to July 2010. LHI had CD4⁺ count ≤200cells/mm³ prior to HAART. Late testers (LT) were those LHI who initiated HAART within 6 months of HIV diagnosis. Late presenters (LP) initiated after 6 months of diagnosis. Prevalence, risk factors and trends over time were analyzed.

Principal Findings

Among subjects starting HAART (n = 9817) who had baseline CD4⁺ available (n = 8515), 76% were LHI: Argentina (56%[95%CI:52–59]), Chile (80%[95%CI:77–82]), Haiti (76%[95%CI:74–77]), Honduras (91%[95%CI:87–94]), Mexico (79%[95%CI:75–83]), Peru (86%[95%CI:84–88]). The proportion of LHI statistically changed over time (except in Honduras) (p≤0.02; Honduras p = 0.7), with a tendency towards lower rates in recent years. Males had increased risk of LHI in Chile, Haiti, Peru, and in the combined site analyses (CSA). Older patients were more likely LHI in Argentina and Peru (OR 1.21 per +10-year of age, 95%CI:1.02–1.45; OR 1.20, 95%CI:1.02–1.43; respectively), but not in CSA (OR 1.07, 95%CI:0.94–1.21). Higher education was associated with decreased risk for LHI in Chile (OR 0.92 per +1-year of education, 95%CI:0.87–0.98) (similar trends in Mexico, Peru, and CSA). LHI with date of HIV-diagnosis available, 55% were LT and 45% LP.

Conclusion

LHI was highly prevalent in CCASAnet sites, mostly due to LT; the main risk factors associated were being male and older age. Earlier HIV-diagnosis and earlier treatment initiation are needed to maximize benefits from HAART in the region.     

Five-year prognosis in an incident cohort of people presenting with acute myocardial infarction

Background

Following an AMI, it is important for patients and their physicians to appreciate the subsequent risk of death, and the potential benefits of invasive cardiac procedures and secondary preventive therapy. Studies, to-date, have focused largely on high-risk populations. We wished to determine the risk of death in a population-derived cohort of 2,887 patients after a first acute myocardial infarction (AMI).

Methods

Logistic regression and survival analysis were conducted to investigate the effect of different baseline characteristics, pharmacological therapies and revascularization procedures on coronary heart disease (CHD) and all-cause mortality outcomes.

Results

Within five years 44.4% of patients died (27.1% short-term [<30 days] and 23.7% longer-term [≥30 days]). Percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (Adjusted Hazards Ratio (AHR) = 0.49, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.26–0.93), β-blockers (AHR = 0.58, 95%CI 0.46–0.74) and statins (AHR = 0.60, 95%CI 0.47–0.77) were all associated with significant reductions in longer-term CHD-related mortality. However, not all patients received secondary preventive therapy (8.7%). Diabetes (AHR = 1.83, 95%CI 1.43–2.34), stroke (AHR = 1.73, 95%CI 1.35–2.22), heart failure (AHR = 1.69, 95%CI 1.28–2.22), smoking (AHR = 1.72, 95%CI 1.18–2.51) and obesity (>30 kg/m2; AHR = 1.39, 95%CI 1.01–1.90) increased the risk of longer-term mortality independent of other risk factors.

Conclusions

It is encouraging that the coronary procedure PTCA and pharmacological secondary prevention therapies were found to be strongly associated with an important reduced risk of subsequent death, although not all patients received these interventions. Smoking, being obese and having cardiovascular related disease at baseline were also associated with an increased likelihood of longer-term mortality, independent of other baseline characteristics. Thus, the provision of smoking cessation, advice on diet (for obese patients) and optimal treatment is likely to be crucial for reducing mortality in all patients after AMI.     

Publication of clinical trials supporting successful new drug applications: a literature analysis

Background

The United States (US) Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approves new drugs based on sponsor-submitted clinical trials. The publication status of these trials in the medical literature and factors associated with publication have not been evaluated. We sought to determine the proportion of trials submitted to the FDA in support of newly approved drugs that are published in biomedical journals that a typical clinician, consumer, or policy maker living in the US would reasonably search.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a cohort study of trials supporting new drugs approved between 1998 and 2000, as described in FDA medical and statistical review documents and the FDA approved drug label. We determined publication status and time from approval to full publication in the medical literature at 2 and 5 y by searching PubMed and other databases through 01 August 2006. We then evaluated trial characteristics associated with publication. We identified 909 trials supporting 90 approved drugs in the FDA reviews, of which 43% (394/909) were published. Among the subset of trials described in the FDA-approved drug label and classified as “pivotal trials” for our analysis, 76% (257/340) were published. In multivariable logistic regression for all trials 5 y postapproval, likelihood of publication correlated with statistically significant results (odds ratio [OR] 3.03, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.78–5.17); larger sample sizes (OR 1.33 per 2-fold increase in sample size, 95% CI 1.17–1.52); and pivotal status (OR 5.31, 95% CI 3.30–8.55). In multivariable logistic regression for only the pivotal trials 5 y postapproval, likelihood of publication correlated with statistically significant results (OR 2.96, 95% CI 1.24–7.06) and larger sample sizes (OR 1.47 per 2-fold increase in sample size, 95% CI 1.15–1.88). Statistically significant results and larger sample sizes were also predictive of publication at 2 y postapproval and in multivariable Cox proportional models for all trials and the subset of pivotal trials.

Conclusions

Over half of all supporting trials for FDA-approved drugs remained unpublished ≥ 5 y after approval. Pivotal trials and trials with statistically significant results and larger sample sizes are more likely to be published. Selective reporting of trial results exists for commonly marketed drugs. Our data provide a baseline for evaluating publication bias as the new FDA Amendments Act comes into force mandating basic results reporting of clinical trials.     

Population-attributable risks for ischemic stroke in a community in South Brazil: a case-control study

Background

Risk factors for ischemic stroke are mostly known, but it is still unclear in most countries, what are their combined population-attributable risk percent (PAR%). In a case-control study the individual odds ratios (ORs) and the individual and combined PAR%, including risk factors not addressed in previous studies were estimated.

Methods

Cases and controls were selected from patients attending to an emergency department. Cases were patients aged with 45 years or more with the first episode of ischemic stroke, characterized by a focal neurological deficit or change in the mental status occurring during the previous 24 hours. Controls, matched to cases by age and gender, were selected from patients without neurological complaints.

Results

133 cases and 272 controls were studied. Odds ratios for ischemic stroke were: atrial fibrillation (27.3; CI 95% 7.5–99.9), left ventricular hypertrophy (20.3; CI 95% 8.8–46.4), history of hypertension (11.2; CI 95% 5.4–23.3), physical inactivity (6.6; CI 95% 3.3–13.1), low levels of HDL-cholesterol (5.0; CI 95%2.8–8.9), heavy smoking (2.8; CI 95% 1.5–5.0), carotid bruit (2.5; CI 95% 1.3–4.6), diabetes (2.4; CI 95% 1.4–4.0) and alcohol abuse (2.1; CI 95% 1.1–4.0), The combination of these risk factors accounted for 98.9% (95% CI; 96.4%–99.7%) of the PAR% for all stroke.

Conclusions

Nine risk factors, easily identified, explain almost 100% of the population attributable risk for ischemic stroke.     

Gene-environment interaction in the onset of eczema in infancy: filaggrin loss-of-function mutations enhanced by neonatal cat exposure

Background

Loss-of-function variants in the gene encoding filaggrin (FLG) are major determinants of eczema. We hypothesized that weakening of the physical barrier in FLG-deficient individuals may potentiate the effect of environmental exposures. Therefore, we investigated whether there is an interaction between FLG loss-of-function mutations with environmental exposures (pets and dust mites) in relation to the development of eczema.

Methods and Findings

We used data obtained in early life in a high-risk birth cohort in Denmark and replicated the findings in an unselected birth cohort in the United Kingdom. Primary outcome was age of onset of eczema; environmental exposures included pet ownership and mite and pet allergen levels. In Copenhagen (n = 379), FLG mutation increased the risk of eczema during the first year of life (hazard ratio [HR] 2.26, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.27–4.00, p = 0.005), with a further increase in risk related to cat exposure at birth amongst children with FLG mutation (HR 11.11, 95% CI 3.79–32.60, p < 0.0001); dog exposure was moderately protective (HR 0.49, 95% CI 0.24–1.01, p = 0.05), but not related to FLG genotype. In Manchester (n = 503) an independent and significant association of the development of eczema by age 12 mo with FLG genotype was confirmed (HR 1.95, 95% CI 1.13–3.36, p = 0.02). In addition, the risk increased because of the interaction of cat ownership at birth and FLG genotype (HR 3.82, 95% CI 1.35–10.81, p = 0.01), with no significant effect of the interaction with dog ownership (HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.16–2.20, p = 0.43). Mite-allergen had no effects in either cohort. The observed effects were independent of sensitisation.

Conclusions

We have demonstrated a significant interaction between FLG loss-of-function main mutations (501x and 2282del4) and cat ownership at birth on the development of early-life eczema in two independent birth cohorts. Our data suggest that cat but not dog ownership substantially increases the risk of eczema within the first year of life in children with FLG loss-of-function variants, but not amongst those without. FLG-deficient individuals may need to avoid cats but not dogs in early life.     

Associated factors for falls among the community-dwelling older people assessed by annual geriatric health examinations

Background

Falls are very common among the older people. Nearly one-third older people living in a community fall each year. However, few studies have examined factors associated with falls in a community-dwelling population of older Taiwanese adults.

Objectives

To identify the associated factors for falls during the previous 12 months among the community-dwelling Taiwanese older people receiving annual geriatric health examinations.

Participants

People aged sixty-five years or older, living in the community, assessed by annual geriatric health examinations

Methods

1377 community-dwellers aged ≥65 years who received annual geriatric health examinations at one hospital in northern Taiwan between March and November of 2008. They were asked about their history of falls during the year prior to their most recent health examination.

Results

The average age of the 1377 participants was 74.9±6.8 years, 48.9% of which were women. Three-hundred and thirteen of the participants (22.7%) had at least one fall during the previous year. Multivariate analysis showed that odds ratio for the risk of falling was 1.94 (95% CI 1.36-2.76) when the female gender group is compared with the male gender group. The adjusted odds ratios of age and waist circumference were 1.03 (95% CI 1.00–1.06) and 1.03 (95% CI 1.01–1.05) respectively. The adjusted odds ratios of visual acuity, Karnofsky scale, and serum albumin level were 0.34 (95% CI 0.15–0.76), 0.94 (95% CI 0.89–0.98), and 0.37 (95% CI 0.18–0.76) respectively. Larger waist circumference, older age, female gender, poorer visual acuity, lower score on the Karnofsky Performance Scale, and lower serum albumin level were the independent associated factors for falls.

Conclusion

In addition to other associated factors, waist circumference should be included as a novel risk factor for falls.     

Alcohol sales and risk of serious assault

Background

Alcohol is a contributing cause of unintentional injuries, such as motor vehicle crashes. Prior research on the association between alcohol use and violent injury was limited to survey-based data, and the inclusion of cases from a single trauma centre, without adequate controls. Beyond these limitations was the inability of prior researchers to comprehensively capture most alcohol sales. In Ontario, most alcohol is sold through retail outlets run by the provincial government, and hospitals are financed under a provincial health care system. We assessed the risk of being hospitalized due to assault in association with retail alcohol sales across Ontario.

Methods and Findings

We performed a population-based case-crossover analysis of all persons aged 13 years and older hospitalized for assault in Ontario from 1 April 2002 to 1 December 2004. On the day prior to each assault case''s hospitalization, the volume of alcohol sold at the store in closest proximity to the victim''s home was compared to the volume of alcohol sold at the same store 7 d earlier. Conditional logistic regression analysis was used to determine the associated relative risk (RR) of assault per 1,000 l higher daily sales of alcohol. Of the 3,212 persons admitted to hospital for assault, nearly 25% were between the ages of 13 and 20 y, and 83% were male. A total of 1,150 assaults (36%) involved the use of a sharp or blunt weapon, and 1,532 (48%) arose during an unarmed brawl or fight. For every 1,000 l more of alcohol sold per store per day, the relative risk of being hospitalized for assault was 1.13 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02–1.26). The risk was accentuated for males (1.18, 95% CI 1.05–1.33), youth aged 13 to 20 y (1.21, 95% CI 0.99–1.46), and those in urban areas (1.19, 95% CI 1.06–1.35).

Conclusions

The risk of being a victim of serious assault increases with alcohol sales, especially among young urban men. Akin to reducing the risk of driving while impaired, consideration should be given to novel methods of preventing alcohol-related violence.     

Association of prenatal and childhood blood lead concentrations with criminal arrests in early adulthood

Background

Childhood lead exposure is a purported risk factor for antisocial behavior, but prior studies either relied on indirect measures of exposure or did not follow participants into adulthood to examine the relationship between lead exposure and criminal activity in young adults. The objective of this study was to determine if prenatal and childhood blood lead concentrations are associated with arrests for criminal offenses.

Methods and Findings

Pregnant women were recruited from four prenatal clinics in Cincinnati, Ohio if they resided in areas of the city with a high concentration of older, lead-contaminated housing. We studied 250 individuals, 19 to 24 y of age, out of 376 children who were recruited at birth between 1979 and 1984. Prenatal maternal blood lead concentrations were measured during the first or early second trimester of pregnancy. Childhood blood lead concentrations were measured on a quarterly and biannual basis through 6.5 y. Study participants were examined at an inner-city pediatric clinic and the Cincinnati Children''s Hospital Medical Center in Cincinnati, Ohio. Total arrests and arrests for offenses involving violence were collected from official Hamilton County, Ohio criminal justice records. Main outcomes were the covariate-adjusted rate ratios (RR) for total arrests and arrests for violent crimes associated with each 5 μg/dl (0.24 μmol/l) increase in blood lead concentration. Adjusted total arrest rates were greater for each 5 μg/dl (0.24 μmol/l) increase in blood lead concentration: RR = 1.40 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07–1.85) for prenatal blood lead, 1.07 (95% CI 0.88–1.29) for average childhood blood lead, and 1.27 (95% CI 1.03–1.57) for 6-year blood lead. Adjusted arrest rates for violent crimes were also greater for each 5 μg/dl increase in blood lead: RR = 1.34 (95% CI 0.88–2.03) for prenatal blood lead, 1.30 (95% CI 1.03–1.64) for average childhood blood lead, and 1.48 (95% CI 1.15–1.89) for 6-year blood lead.

Conclusions

Prenatal and postnatal blood lead concentrations are associated with higher rates of total arrests and/or arrests for offenses involving violence. This is the first prospective study to demonstrate an association between developmental exposure to lead and adult criminal behavior.     

Pedestrian road traffic injuries in urban Peruvian children and adolescents: case control analyses of personal and environmental risk factors

Background

Child pedestrian road traffic injuries (RTIs) are an important cause of death and disability in poorer nations, however RTI prevention strategies in those countries largely draw upon studies conducted in wealthier countries. This research investigated personal and environmental risk factors for child pedestrian RTIs relevant to an urban, developing world setting.

Methods

This is a case control study of personal and environmental risk factors for child pedestrian RTIs in San Juan de Miraflores, Lima, Perú. The analysis of personal risk factors included 100 cases of serious pedestrian RTIs and 200 age and gender matched controls. Demographic, socioeconomic, and injury data were collected. The environmental risk factor study evaluated vehicle and pedestrian movement and infrastructure at the sites in which 40 of the above case RTIs occurred and 80 control sites.

Findings

After adjustment, factors associated with increased risk of child pedestrian RTIs included high vehicle volume (OR 7·88, 95%CI 1·97–31·52), absent lane demarcations (OR 6·59, 95% CI 1·65–26·26), high vehicle speed (OR 5·35, 95%CI 1·55–18·54), high street vendor density (OR 1·25, 95%CI 1·01–1·55), and more children living in the home (OR 1·25, 95%CI 1·00–1·56). Protective factors included more hours/day spent in school (OR 0·52, 95%CI 0·33–0·82) and years of family residence in the same home (OR 0·97, 95%CI 0·95–0·99).

Conclusion

Reducing traffic volumes and speeds, limiting the number of street vendors on a given stretch of road, and improving lane demarcation should be evaluated as components of child pedestrian RTI interventions in poorer countries.     

The effect of delaying childbirth on primary cesarean section rates

Background

The relationship between population trends in delaying childbirth and rising rates of primary cesarean delivery is unclear. The aims of the present study were (1) to characterize the association between maternal age and the outcome of labor, (2) to determine the proportion of the increase in primary cesarean rates that could be attributed to changes in maternal age distribution, and (3) to determine whether the contractility of uterine smooth muscle (myometrium) varied with maternal age.

Methods and Findings

We utilized nationally collected data from Scotland, from 1980 to 2005, and modeled the risk of emergency cesarean section among women delivering a liveborn infant in a cephalic presentation at term. We also studied isolated myometrial strips obtained from 62 women attending for planned cesarean delivery in Cambridge, England, from 2005 to 2007. Among 583,843 eligible nulliparous women, there was a linear increase in the log odds of cesarean delivery with advancing maternal age from 16 y upwards, and this increase was unaffected by adjustment for a range of maternal characteristics (adjusted odds ratio for a 5-y increase 1.49, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.48–1.51). Increasing maternal age was also associated with a longer duration of labor (0.49 h longer for a 5-y increase in age, 95% CI 0.46–0.51) and an increased risk of operative vaginal birth (adjusted odds ratio for a 5-y increase 1.49, 95% CI 1.48–1.50). Over the period from 1980 to 2005, the cesarean delivery rate among nulliparous women more than doubled and the proportion of women aged 30–34 y increased 3-fold, the proportion aged 35–39 y increased 7-fold, and the proportion aged ≥40 y increased 10-fold. Modeling indicated that if the age distribution had stayed the same over the period of study, 38% of the additional cesarean deliveries would have been avoided. Similar associations were observed in multiparous women. When studied in vitro, increasing maternal age was associated with reduced spontaneous activity and increased likelihood of multiphasic spontaneous myometrial contractions.

Conclusions

Delaying childbirth has significantly contributed to rising rates of intrapartum primary cesarean delivery. The association between increasing maternal age and the risk of intrapartum cesarean delivery is likely to have a biological basis.     

HIV incidence and risk factors for acquisition in HIV discordant couples in Masaka, Uganda: an HIV vaccine preparedness study

Objectives

To determine the incidence of and risk factors for HIV acquisition in a cohort of HIV-uninfected partners from HIV discordant couples in Masaka, Uganda, and to establish its suitability for HIV vaccine trials.

Methods

HIV-uninfected adults living in HIV discordant couple relationships were enrolled and followed for 2 years. Interviews, medical investigations, HIV counseling and testing, syphilis and urine pregnancy (women) tests were performed at quarterly visits. Sexual risk behaviour data were collected every 6 months.

Results

495 participants were enrolled, of whom 34 seroconverted during 786.6 person-years of observation (PYO). The overall HIV incidence rate [95% confidence interval (CI)] was 4.3 [3.1–6]; and 4.3 [2.8–6.4] and 4.4 [2.5–8] per 100 PYO in men and women respectively. Independent baseline predictors for HIV acquisition were young age [18–24 (aRR = 4.1, 95% CI 1.6–10.8) and 25–34 (aRR = 2.7, 95% CI 1.2–5.8) years]; alcohol use (aRR = 2.6, 95% CI 1.1–6); and reported genital discharge (aRR = 3.4, 95% CI 1.6–7.2) in the past year. Condom use frequency in the year preceding enrolment was predictive of a reduced risk of HIV acquisition [sometimes (aRR = 0.4, 95% CI 0.2–0.8); always (aRR = 0.1, 95% CI 0.02–0.9)]. In the follow-up risk analysis, young age [18–24 (aRR = 6.2, 95% CI 2.2–17.3) and 25-34 (aRR = 2.3, 95% CI 1.1–5.0) years], reported genital discharge (aRR = 2.5, 95% CI 1.1–5.5), serological syphilis (aRR 3.2, 95% CI 1.3–7.7) and the partner being ART naïve (aRR = 4.8, 95% CI 1.4–16.0) were independently associated with HIV acquisition. There were no seroconversions among participants who reported consistent condom use during the study.

Conclusions

The study has identified important risk factors for HIV acquisition among HIV discordant couples. HIV-uninfected partners in discordant couples may be a suitable population for HIV vaccine efficacy trials. However, recent confirmation that ART reduces heterosexual HIV transmission may make it unfeasible to conduct HIV prevention trials in this population.     

The association of C-reactive protein and CRP genotype with coronary heart disease: findings from five studies with 4,610 cases amongst 18,637 participants

Background

It is unclear whether C-reactive protein (CRP) is causally related to coronary heart disease (CHD). Genetic variants that are known to be associated with CRP levels can be used to provide causal inference of the effect of CRP on CHD. Our objective was to examine the association between CRP genetic variant +1444C>T (rs1130864) and CHD risk in the largest study to date of this association.

Methods and Results

We estimated the association of CRP genetic variant +1444C>T (rs1130864) with CRP levels and with CHD in five studies and then pooled these analyses (N = 18,637 participants amongst whom there were 4,610 cases). CRP was associated with potential confounding factors (socioeconomic position, physical activity, smoking and body mass) whereas genotype (rs1130864) was not associated with these confounders. The pooled odds ratio of CHD per doubling of circulating CRP level after adjustment for age and sex was 1.13 (95%CI: 1.06, 1.21), and after further adjustment for confounding factors it was 1.07 (95%CI: 1.02, 1.13). Genotype (rs1130864) was associated with circulating CRP; the pooled ratio of geometric means of CRP level among individuals with the TT genotype compared to those with the CT/CC genotype was 1.21 (95%CI: 1.15, 1.28) and the pooled ratio of geometric means of CRP level per additional T allele was 1.14 (95%CI: 1.11, 1.18), with no strong evidence in either analyses of between study heterogeneity (I² = 0%, p>0.9 for both analyses). There was no association of genotype (rs1130864) with CHD: pooled odds ratio 1.01 (95%CI: 0.88, 1.16) comparing individuals with TT genotype to those with CT/CC genotype and 0.96 (95%CI: 0.90, 1.03) per additional T allele (I²<7.5%, p>0.6 for both meta-analyses). An instrumental variables analysis (in which the proportion of CRP levels explained by rs1130864 was related to CHD) suggested that circulating CRP was not associated with CHD: the odds ratio for a doubling of CRP level was 1.04 (95%CI: 0.61, 1.80).

Conclusions

We found no association of a genetic variant, which is known to be related to CRP levels, (rs1130864) and having CHD. These findings do not support a causal association between circulating CRP and CHD risk, but very large, extended, genetic association studies would be required to rule this out.     

Pre-ART levels of inflammation and coagulation markers are strong predictors of death in a South African cohort with advanced HIV disease

Background

Levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and D-dimer predict mortality in HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) with relatively preserved CD4+ T cell counts. We hypothesized that elevated pre-ART levels of these markers among patients with advanced HIV would be associated with an increased risk of death following the initiation of ART.

Methods

Pre-ART plasma from patients with advanced HIV in South Africa was used to measure hsCRP, IL-6 and D-dimer. Using a nested case-control study design, the biomarkers were measured for 187 deaths and two controls matched on age, sex, clinical site, follow-up time and CD4+ cell counts. Odds ratios were estimated using conditional logistic regression. In addition, for a random sample of 100 patients, biomarkers were measured at baseline and 6 months following randomization to determine whether ART altered their levels.

Results

Median baseline biomarkers levels for cases and controls, respectively, were 11.25 vs. 3.6 mg/L for hsCRP, 1.41 vs. 0.98 mg/L for D-dimer, and 9.02 vs. 4.20 pg/mL for IL-6 (all p<0.0001). Adjusted odds ratios for the highest versus lowest quartile of baseline biomarker levels were 3.5 (95% CI: 1.9–6.7) for hsCRP, 2.6 (95%CI 1.4–4.9) for D-dimer, and 3.8 (95% CI: 1.8–7.8) for IL-6. These associations were stronger for deaths that occurred more proximal to the biomarker measurements. Levels of D-dimer and IL-6, but not hsCRP, were significantly lower at month 6 after commencing ART compared to baseline (p<0.0001).

Conclusions

Among patients with advanced HIV disease, elevated pre-ART levels of hsCRP, IL-6 and D-dimer are strongly associated with early mortality after commencing ART. Elevated levels of inflammatory and coagulation biomarkers may identify patients who may benefit from aggressive clinical monitoring after commencing ART. Further investigation of strategies to reduce biomarkers of inflammation and coagulation in patients with advanced HIV disease is warranted.

Trial Registration

Parent Study: ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00342355","term_id":"NCT00342355"}}NCT00342355