Predator-Mediated Indirect Effects of Snowshoe Hares on Dall's Sheep in Alaska

ABSTRACT Indirect interactions among species can strongly influence population dynamics and community structure but are often overlooked in management of large mammals. We estimated survival of Dall's sheep (Ovis dalli) in the central Alaska Range, USA, during years of differing snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) abundance to test whether indirect interactions with a cyclic hare population affect Dall's sheep either negatively, by subsidizing predators (apparent competition), or positively, by diverting predation (apparent commensalism). Annual survival of adult female sheep was consistently high (0.85 for all yr and age classes combined). In contrast, annual estimates of lamb survival ranged from 0.15 to 0.63. The main predators of lambs were coyotes (Canis latrans) and golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos), which rely on hares as their primary food and prey on lambs secondarily. Coyotes and eagles killed 78% of 65 radiocollared lambs for which cause of death was known. Lamb survival was negatively related to hare abundance during the previous year, and lamb survival rates more than doubled when hare abundance declined, supporting the hypothesis of predator-mediated apparent competition between hares and sheep. However, stage-specific predation and delays in predator responses to changes in hare numbers led to a positive relationship between abundance of adult Dall's sheep and hares. Lacking reliable estimates of survival, a manager might erroneously conclude that hares benefit sheep. Thus, support for different indirect effects can be obtained from different types of data, which demonstrates the need to determine the mechanisms that create indirect interactions. Long-term survey data suggest that predation by coyotes is limiting this sheep population below levels typical when coyotes were rare or absent. Understanding the nature of indirect interactions is necessary to effectively manage complex predator–prey communities.     

Habitat Conditions Associated With Lynx Hunting Behavior During Winter in Northern Washington

Abstract Effectively managing habitat for threatened populations of Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) requires knowledge of habitat conditions that provide for the ecological needs of lynx. We snow-tracked lynx to identify habitat conditions associated with hunting behavior and predation during winters of 2002–2003 and 2003–2004 in the northern Cascade Range in Washington state, USA. We recorded number and success of predation attempts, prey species killed, and trail sinuosity on 149 km of lynx trails. Lynx killed snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus), and cricetids more than expected in Englemann spruce (Picea engelmannii) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) forests, where snowshoe hare densities were highest. Lynx killed prey less than expected in Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests and forest openings. We used the sinuosity of lynx trails as an index of quality of habitat hunted. Lynx trails that included predation attempts were more sinuous than trail segments without predation attempts. Lynx trails had greater sinuosity in forest stands with high hare densities dominated by Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir than in stands with low hare densities dominated by Douglas-fir and ponderosa pine or in forest openings. We encourage forest managers to maintain or create sufficient understory cover to support high densities of snowshoe hares as foraging habitat for lynx.     

Coyote Abundance,Sheep Predation,and Wild Prey Correlates Illuminate Mediterranean Trophic Dynamics

ABSTRACT Sheep predation by coyotes (Canis latrans) is a major problem for sheep producers in North America. Solutions are facilitated by a basic understanding of the trophic dynamic context of this problem, one that likely varies geographically in important qualitative ways. Little is known about vertebrate trophic dynamics in Mediterranean ecosystems, where prey are diverse and their biomass is strongly influenced multi-annually by variable rainfall. We used long-term data sets from north-coastal California, USA, to investigate whether wild prey fluctuations caused immediate negative effects on sheep predation via a reduction in the coyote functional response or delayed positive effects on sheep predation via a numerical response by coyote predators. Because we could not measure prey biomass directly, we used variables associated with lower trophic levels (e.g., annual plant productivity, vole abundance, rainfall) as proxies for wild prey biomass. Coyote population growth rate was positively correlated with lower-trophic-level variables of the previous year, suggesting a numerical response, and sheep (ad F + lambs) predation was positively correlated with coyote abundance in the current year. Sheep predation also was negatively correlated with lower-trophic-level variables of the current year, suggesting an immediate buffering effect of wild prey on sheep predation. Together, coyote abundance and lower-trophic-level variables explained 47% of the multi-annual variation in sheep kills. The negative pathway between lower-trophic-level variables and sheep predation was stronger than the positive pathway, possibly due to the erratic nature of multi-annual fluctuations in lower-trophic-level variables, which could prevent the numerical response from reaching its full potential. Monthly analyses revealed a type III functional response of coyotes to lambs, which is expected to enhance buffering effects of wild prey on sheep predation. Our findings suggest the dominant effect of wild prey biomass on sheep predation by coyotes in this Mediterranean-type community is as a buffer.     

Demographic differences in diet breadth of Canada lynx during a fluctuation in prey availability

Population dynamics of specialist carnivores are closely linked to prey availability, but the extent of variability in diet breadth of individual carnivores relative to natural variability in the abundance of their primary prey is not well understood. Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) specialize on snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) and exhibit cyclic fluctuations in abundance that lag 1–2 years behind those of snowshoe hares. Declining hare densities spur demographic changes in lynx, but it is unclear whether a corresponding increase in diet breadth occurs: (1) broadly across a lynx population; (2) only among individuals who are able to effectively switch to alternative prey; or (3) only among individuals who cannot capture sufficient primary prey. We measured stable isotope ratios of lynx muscle tissue spanning a cyclic increase and decline in hare density (1998–2001) in Fort Providence, NT, Canada. We found that lynx cohorts responded differently to hare population change, with yearling animals having broader diets at low hare densities, while adults and dependent juveniles maintained a constant diet through the initial decline in hare density. This result was consistent irrespective of lynx sex and indicates that yearling lynx likely are forced to adopt a broader diet when primary prey densities decline. Our results imply that select cohorts of specialist carnivores can exhibit high dietary plasticity in response to changes in primary prey abundance, prompting the need to determine whether increased diet breadth in young lynx is a successful strategy for surviving through periods of snowshoe hare scarcity. In this way, cohort‐specific niche expansion could strongly affect the dynamics of organisms exhibiting population cycles.     

Predator and Prey Models with Flexible Individual Behavior and Imperfect Information

To begin identifying what behavioral details might be needed to characterize community dynamics and stability, we examined the effect of prey behavioral responses to predation risk on community dynamics and stability. We considered the case of prey altering their foraging effort to trade off energy gain and predation risk. We used state-dependent dynamic optimization to calculate the optimal trade-off for four models of prey behaviorally responding to predation risk. We consider a fixed behavior model in which prey use constant levels of foraging effort and three flexible behavior models in which prey change their foraging effort according to their physiological state and their perceived level of predation risk. Flexible behavior was destabilizing at the community level as evidenced by higher predator-prey oscillations and lower community persistence times. The mechanisms by which prey estimated predation risk also affected community stability. We found that community dynamics resulting from prey with flexible behavior and fixed perception of risk approximated community dynamics resulting from prey with flexible behavior and perfect information about predation risk, however neither approximated the community dynamics resulting from prey with flexible behavior and flexible perception of risk. Thus, whether it might be possible to abstract complex behavior with simpler rules when modeling community dynamics depends on the prey's behavioral mechanisms, which are empirically poorly known.     

Prey-mediated avoidance of an intraguild predator by its intraguild prey

Intraguild (IG) predation is an important factor influencing community structure, yet factors allowing coexistence of IG predator and IG prey are not well understood. The existence of spatial refuges for IG prey has recently been noted for their importance in allowing coexistence. However, reduction in basal prey availability might lead IG prey to leave spatial refuges for greater access to prey, leading to increased IG predation and fewer opportunities for coexistence. We determined how the availability of prey affected space-use patterns of bobcats (Lynx rufus, IG prey) in relation to coyote space-use patterns (Canis latrans, IG predators). We located animals from fall 2007 to spring 2009 and estimated bobcat home ranges and core areas seasonally. For each bobcat relocation, we determined intensity of coyote use, distance to water, small mammal biomass, and mean small mammal biomass of the home range during the season the location was collected. We built generalized linear mixed models and used Akaike Information Criteria to determine which factors best predicted bobcat space use. Coyote intensity was a primary determinant of bobcat core area location. In bobcat home ranges with abundant prey, core areas occurred where coyote use was low, but shifted to areas intensively used by coyotes when prey declined. High spatial variability in basal prey abundance allowed some bobcats to avoid coyotes while at the same time others were forced into more risky areas. Our results suggest that multiple behavioral strategies associated with spatial variation in basal prey abundance likely allow IG prey and IG predators to coexist.     

Bottom‐up processes drive reproductive success in an apex predator

One of the central goals of the field of population ecology is to identify the drivers of population dynamics, particularly in the context of predator–prey relationships. Understanding the relative role of top‐down versus bottom‐up drivers is of particular interest in understanding ecosystem dynamics. Our goal was to explore predator–prey relationships in a boreal ecosystem in interior Alaska through the use of multispecies long‐term monitoring data. We used 29 years of field data and a dynamic multistate site occupancy modeling approach to explore the trophic relationships between an apex predator, the golden eagle, and cyclic populations of the two primary prey species available to eagles early in the breeding season, snowshoe hare and willow ptarmigan. We found that golden eagle reproductive success was reliant on prey numbers, but also responded prior to changes in the phase of the snowshoe hare population cycle and failed to respond to variation in hare cycle amplitude. There was no lagged response to ptarmigan populations, and ptarmigan populations recovered quickly from the low phase. Together, these results suggested that eagle reproduction is largely driven by bottom‐up processes, with little evidence of top‐down control of either ptarmigan or hare populations. Although the relationship between golden eagle reproductive success and prey abundance had been previously established, here we established prey populations are likely driving eagle dynamics through bottom‐up processes. The key to this insight was our focus on golden eagle reproductive parameters rather than overall abundance. Although our inference is limited to the golden eagle–hare–ptarmigan relationships we studied, our results suggest caution in interpreting predator–prey abundance patterns among other species as strong evidence for top‐down control.     

Dynamics of herbivores and resources on a landscape with interspersed resources and refuges

A tradeoff between energy gain from foraging and safety from predation in refuges is a common situation for many herbivores that are vulnerable to predation while foraging. This tradeoff affects the population dynamics of the plant–herbivore–predator interaction. A new functional response is derived based on the Holling type 2 functional response and the assumption that the herbivore can forage at a rate that maximizes its fitness. The predation rate on the herbivore is assumed to be proportional to the product of the time that the herbivore spends foraging and a risk factor that reflects the habitat complexity; where greater complexity means greater interspersion of high food quality habitat and refuge habitat, which increases the amount of the edge zone between refuge and foraging areas, making foraging safer. The snowshoe hare is chosen as an example to demonstrate the resulting dynamics of an herbivore that has been intensely studied and that undergoes well-known cycling. Two models are studied in which the optimal foraging by hares is assumed, a vegetation–hare–generalist predator model and a vegetation–hare–specialist predator model. In both cases, the results suggest that the cycling of the snowshoe hare population will be greatly moderated by optimal foraging in a habitat consisting of interspersed high quality foraging habitat and refuge habitat. However, there are also large differences in the dynamics produced by the two models as a function of predation pressure.     

Winter Prey Selection of Canada Lynx in Northwestern Montana

ABSTRACT The roles that diet and prey abundance play in habitat selection of Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) in the contiguous United States is poorly understood. From 1998–2002, we back-tracked radiocollared lynx (6 F, 9 M) for a distance of 582 km and we located 86 kills in northwestern Montana, USA. Lynx preyed on 7 species that included blue grouse (Dendragapus obscurus), spruce grouse (Canachites canadensis), northern flying squirrel (Glaucomys sabrinus), red squirrel (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus), snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus), least weasel (Mustela nivalis), and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). Snowshoe hares (69 kills) accounted for 96% (4-yr average, range = 94–99%) of prey biomass during the sample period. Red squirrels were the second-most-common prey (11 kills), but they only provided 2% biomass of the winter diet. Red squirrels contributed little to the lynx diet despite low hare densities. A logistic regression model of snowshoe hare, red squirrel, and grouse abundance, as indexed by the number of track crossings of use and available lynx back-tracks, was a significant (Wald statistic = 19.03, df = 3, P < 0.001) predictor of habitat use. As we expected, lynx (P < 0.001) selected use-areas with higher snowshoe hare abundance compared to random expectation. However, the red squirrel index had a weak (P = 0.087) negative relationship to lynx use, and grouse was nonsignificant (P = 0.432). Our results indicate that lynx in western Montana prey almost exclusively on snowshoe hares during the winter with little use of alternative prey. Thus, reductions in horizontal cover for hares would degrade lynx habitat.     

Relationship Between Fecal Pellet Counts and Snowshoe Hare Density in Western Wyoming

ABSTRACT Snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) are an important prey species for Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) and are considered critical for lynx population persistence. Determination of snowshoe hare distribution and abundance is needed by land management agencies for lynx conservation. An accepted approach for estimating snowshoe hare abundance is the use of fecal-pellet plot counts. Locally derived regression equations are preferred for accurate calibration of pellet counts to snowshoe hare density due to local differences in pellet deposition and decomposition. We used linear regression to examine correlations between snowshoe hare density, as determined by mark–recapture estimates, and pellet plot counts on both uncleared plots and annually cleared plots on the Bridger-Teton National Forest, western Wyoming, USA. We found significant correlations between snowshoe hare density estimates and fecal pellet counts for both uncleared and annually cleared pellet counts; however, the relationship was stronger (higher r) when using pellet counts from annually cleared plots. In addition, we found that adjusting the buffer size by omitting hard habitat edges (not used by hares) around trapping grids improved correlations between snowshoe hare density and fecal pellet counts for both uncleared plots and annually cleared plots. Though precision is sacrificed when using uncleared plots, they may be useful as a coarse index of habitat use by snowshoe hares. Our derived regression equations may be useful to identify important foraging habitat for Canada lynx in western Wyoming. Land managers responsible for conserving snowshoe hare habitat in western Wyoming may use these equations to monitor changes in hare populations among habitats and during prescribed management actions.     

Snowshoe hare demography during a cyclic population low

1. Snowshoe hare ( Lepus americanus Erxleben) populations were studied in south-west Yukon during the low phase of the 10-year population cycle. Food availability and predator abundance were manipulated in a factorial design to determine the importance of each factor in hare dynamics during this phase.
2. Food was abundant during the low phase, and snowshoe hares were not food limited.
3. Survival of hares was higher than at any other phase of the cycle, and predators were scarce, but >75% of hare deaths resulted from predation.
4. Food addition resulted in higher hare densities and better body condition than on control sites. There were no observable effects of food addition on population rate of increase, recruitment, survival or age structure.
5. Mammalian predator reduction resulted in higher hare densities, higher survival, better body condition and an older age structure. Relative to control populations, recruitment was lower and population rates of increase similar.
6. The joint manipulation of food addition + predator reduction had greater positive effects on hare density and body condition than either single factor manipulation. Survival was better than on control sites, and the age structure was older than on control sites. Population rates of increase were similar, but recruitment was higher on the control areas.
7. We conclude that snowshoe hare dynamics at the low of the cycle are dominated by the interaction of food and predation. Risk of predation also had indirect effects on snowshoe hare age structure and body condition.     

Coyote Habitat Selection and Management Implications for the Gaspésie Caribou

ABSTRACT Anthropogenic disturbances can promote establishment and growth of predator populations in areas where secondary prey can then become threatened. In this study, we investigated habitat selection of eastern coyotes (Canis latrans), a relatively new predator in the vicinity of an endangered population of caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou). We hypothesized that coyotes in the boreal forest depend mainly on disturbed habitat, particularly that of anthropogenic origin, because these habitats provide increased food accessibility. Coyotes would likely take advantage of moose (Alces alces) carcasses, berries, and snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) found in open habitats created by logging. To test these predictions, we described coyote diet and habitat selection at different spatial and temporal levels and then compared resource availability between habitats. To do so, we installed Global Positioning System radiocollars on 23 individual coyotes in the Gaspésie Peninsula, eastern Québec, Canada. Coyotes selected clear-cuts of 5–20 years and avoided mature coniferous forests both at the landscape and home-range levels. Clear-cuts of 5–20 years were found to contain a high availability of moose carcasses and berries, and vulnerability of snowshoe hares is known to increase in clear-cuts. The importance of these 3 food resources was confirmed by the characteristics of core areas used by coyotes and diet analysis. Moose remains were found at 45% of core areas and coyote diet comprised 51% moose on an annual basis. Anthropogenic disturbances in the boreal forest thus seem to benefit coyotes. Our results indicated that the relationship between coyotes and caribou likely involves spillover predation. This knowledge allows managers to consider spillover predation by coyotes as a possible threat for endangered caribou population when the predator depends mainly on habitat of anthropogenic origin and to suggest methods to alleviate it when developing management plans.     

Habitat-dependent foraging in a classic predator–prey system: a fable from snowshoe hares

Current research contrasting prey habitat use has documented, with virtual unanimity, habitat differences in predation risk. Relatively few studies have considered, either in theory or in practice, simultaneous patterns in prey density. Linear predator–prey models predict that prey habitat preferences should switch toward the safer habitat with increasing prey and predator densities. The density‐dependent preference can be revealed by regression of prey density in safe habitat versus that in the riskier one (the isodar). But at this scale, the predation risk can be revealed only with simultaneous estimates of the number of predators, or with their experimental removal. Theories of optimal foraging demonstrate that we can measure predation risk by giving‐up densities of resource in foraging patches. The foraging theory cannot yet predict the expected pattern as predator and prey populations covary. Both problems are solved by measuring isodars and giving‐up densities in the same predator–prey system. I applied the two approaches to the classic predator–prey dynamics of snowshoe hares in northwestern Ontario, Canada. Hares occupied regenerating cutovers and adjacent mature‐forest habitat equally, and in a manner consistent with density‐dependent habitat selection. Independent measures of predation risk based on experimental, as well as natural, giving‐up densities agreed generally with the equal preference between habitats revealed by the isodar. There was no apparent difference in predation risk between habitats despite obvious differences in physical structure. Complementary studies contrasting a pair of habitats with more extreme differences confirmed that hares do alter their giving‐up densities when one habitat is clearly superior to another. The results are thereby consistent with theories of adaptive behaviour. But the results also demonstrate, when evaluating differences in habitat, that it is crucial to let the organisms we study define their own habitat preference.     

From process to pattern: how fluctuating predation risk impacts the stress axis of snowshoe hares during the 10-year cycle

Predation is a central organizing process affecting populations and communities. Traditionally, ecologists have focused on the direct effects of predation—the killing of prey. However, predators also have significant sublethal effects on prey populations. We investigated how fluctuating predation risk affected the stress physiology of a cyclic population of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) in the Yukon, finding that they are extremely sensitive to the fluctuating risk of predation. In years of high predator numbers, hares had greater plasma cortisol levels at capture, greater fecal cortisol metabolite levels, a greater plasma cortisol response to a hormone challenge, a greater ability to mobilize energy and poorer body condition. These indices of stress had the same pattern within years, during the winter and over the breeding season when the hare:lynx ratio was lowest and the food availability the worst. Previously we have shown that predator-induced maternal stress lowers reproduction and compromises offspring’s stress axis. We propose that predator-induced changes in hare stress physiology affect their demography through negative impacts on reproduction and that the low phase of cyclic populations may be the result of predator-induced maternal stress reducing the fitness of progeny. The hare population cycle has far reaching ramifications on predators, alternate prey, and vegetation. Thus, predation is the predominant organizing process for much of the North American boreal forest community, with its indirect signature—stress in hares—producing a pattern of hormonal changes that provides a sensitive reflection of fluctuating predator pressure that may have long-term demographic consequences.     

Evolution mediates the effects of apex predation on aquatic food webs

Ecological and evolutionary mechanisms are increasingly thought to shape local community dynamics. Here, I evaluate if the local adaptation of a meso-predator to an apex predator alters local food webs. The marbled salamander (Ambystoma opacum) is an apex predator that consumes both the spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum) and shared zooplankton prey. Common garden experiments reveal that spotted salamander populations which co-occur with marbled salamanders forage more intensely than those that face other predator species. These foraging differences, in turn, alter the diversity, abundance and composition of zooplankton communities in common garden experiments and natural ponds. Locally adapted spotted salamanders exacerbate prey biomass declines associated with apex predation, but dampen the top-down effects of apex predation on prey diversity. Countergradient selection on foraging explains why locally adapted spotted salamanders exacerbate prey biomass declines. The two salamander species prefer different prey species, which explains why adapted spotted salamanders buffer changes in prey composition owing to apex predation. Results suggest that local adaptation can strongly mediate effects from apex predation on local food webs. Community ecologists might often need to consider the evolutionary history of populations to understand local diversity patterns, food web dynamics, resource gradients and their responses to disturbance.     

Prey choice by marten during a decline in prey abundance

Summary We examined variation in diet choice by marten (Martes americana) among seasons and between sexes and ages from 1980–1985. During this period prey populations crashed simultaneously, except for ruffed grouse (Bonasa umbellus) which was common at the beginning and end of the study, and masked shrews (Sorex cinereus) which were abundant in 1983. Marten were catholic in selection of prey and made use of most available mammalian prey, ruffed grouse, passerine birds, berries, and insects. Diet niche was widest during the latter three years when prey was scare, particularly in late winter. Diet niche breadth was negatively correlated with abundance of all common prey species. Proportion of small prey species in the diet was correlated with absolute abundance of those species, but proportion of some large prey was related to their relative abundance. Diet choice varied among years and among seasons. Berries and insects were common in summer diets while large prey, particularly varying hare (Lepus americanus), were more frequent in winter diet than in summer diet. We found little evidence that any small mammal species was a preferred prey. Sexual size dimorphism between the sexes did not affect prey choice, nor did age. Reduced foraging effort in winter resulted in a wider diet niche only when prey was scarce. The only prediction of optimal foraging models fully supported by our data was a wider diet niche with reduced prey abundance. However, among the three most profitable prey species choice was dependent on the absolute abundance of the most profitable type (varying hare). We suggest that marten primarily forage for large prey but employ a strategy which results in encounters with small prey as well. These small prey are eaten as they provide energy at minimal cost, between captures of large prey.     

The Effect of Snowmobile Trails on Coyote Movements Within Lynx Home Ranges

Abstract: Coyotes (Canis latrans) and Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) are sympatric throughout much of the lynx's southern range. Researchers and managers have suggested that the presence of compacted snowmobile trails may allow coyotes to access lynx habitat from which they were previously excluded by deep, unconsolidated snow. This could then allow coyotes to more effectively compete with lynx for snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), the lynx's primary prey. We investigated how coyotes interacted with compacted snowmobile trails by conducting carnivore track surveys and by snow tracking adult coyotes (4 M, 8 F) in areas of western Montana, USA, with both documented lynx presence and recreational snowmobile use. Coyotes remained in lynx habitat having deep snow throughout the winter months. They used compacted snowmobile trails for 7.69% of their travel distance and traveled on them for a median distance of 124 m. Coyotes used compacted forest roads (5.66% of total travel) and uncompacted forest roads (4.62% of total travel) similarly. Coyotes did not travel closer to compacted snowmobile trails than random expectation (coyote x̄ distance from compacted trails = 368 m, random expectation = 339 m) and the distance they traveled from these trails did not vary with daily, monthly, or yearly changes in snow supportiveness or depth. However, they strongly selected for naturally shallower and more supportive snow surfaces when traveling off compacted snowmobile trails. Coyotes were primarily scavengers in winter (snowshoe hare kills composed 3% of coyote feed sites) and did not forage closer to compacted snowmobile trails than random expectation. The overall influence of snowmobile trails on coyote movements and foraging success during winter appeared to be minimal on our study area. The results of this study will allow land managers to better assess the effects of snow-compacting activities on coyotes and lynx.     

Seasonal Effects of Habitat on Sources and Rates of Snowshoe Hare Predation in Alaskan Boreal Forests

Survival and predation of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) has been widely studied, yet there has been little quantification of the changes in vulnerability of hares to specific predators that may result from seasonal changes in vegetation and cover. We investigated survival and causes of mortalities of snowshoe hares during the late increase, peak, and decline of a population in interior Alaska. From June 2008 to May 2012, we radio-tagged 288 adult and older juvenile hares in early successional and black spruce (Picea mariana) forests and, using known-fate methods in program MARK, evaluated 85 survival models that included variables for sex, age, and body condition of hares, as well as trapping site, month, season, year, snowfall, snow depth, and air temperature. We compared the models using Akaike’s information criterion with correction for small sample size. Model results indicated that month, capture site, and body condition were the most important variables in explaining survival rates. Survival was highest in July, and more generally during summer, when alternative prey was available to predators of hares. Low survival rates coincided with molting periods, breeding activity in the spring, and the introduction of juveniles to the sample population in the fall. We identified predation as the cause of mortality in 86% of hare deaths. When the source of predation could be determined, hares were killed more often by goshawks (Accipiter gentilis) than other predators in early successional forest (30%), and more often by lynx (Lynx canadensis) than other predators in black spruce forest (31%). Great horned owls (Bubo virginianus) and coyotes (Canis latrans) represented smaller proportions of hare predation, and non-predatory causes were a minor source (3%) of mortality. Because hares rely on vegetative cover for concealment from predators, we measured cover in predation sites and habitats that the hares occupied and concluded that habitat type had a greater influence on the sources of predation than the amount of cover in any given location within a habitat. Our observations illustrate the vulnerability of hares to predators in even the densest coniferous habitat available in the boreal forest, and indicate strong seasonal changes in the rates and sources of predation.     

Role of predation in short-term population fluctuations of some birds and mammals in Fennoscandia

Summary We tested the hypothesis that synchronous fluctuations in small game species in boreal Fennoscandia are caused by varying predation pressure. The main prey of predators are the cyclically superabundant voles. Small game species (alternative prey) are rare compared to voles. The following 4 predictions were checked: (1) Predators should shift their diet from main prey to alternative prey as main prey decline. — This was confirmed using data on red fox (Vulpes vulpes L.) diet.; (2) The mortality rate of alternative prey should be inversely correlated to the abundance of main prey. — This was true for mountain hare (Lepus timidus L.) mortality rates and the rate of nest predation on black grouse (Tetrao tetrix L.).; (3) The total consumption of prey by all the predators should at least equal the critical losses in alternative prey during a decline year. — A tentative estimate of predator consumption amounted to 10 times the losses in grouse and hare.; and (4) The absence of synchrony between the species in the boreonemoral region should be associated with a more diverse diet of predators. — This was the case for red fox diets throughout Sweden. Although all 4 predictions were confirmed, we could not necessarily exclude other hypotheses involving changes in quality or quantity of plant food.