Development by design: mitigating wind development's impacts on wildlife in Kansas

Wind energy, if improperly sited, can impact wildlife through direct mortality and habitat loss and fragmentation, in contrast to its environmental benefits in the areas of greenhouse gas, air quality, and water quality. Fortunately, risks to wildlife from wind energy may be alleviated through proper siting and mitigation offsets. Here we identify areas in Kansas where wind development is incompatible with conservation, areas where wind development may proceed but with compensatory mitigation for impacts, and areas where development could proceed without the need for compensatory mitigation. We demonstrate that approximately 10.3 million ha in Kansas (48 percent of the state) has the potential to provide 478 GW of installed capacity while still meeting conservation goals. Of this total, approximately 2.7 million ha would require no compensatory mitigation and could produce up to 125 GW of installed capacity. This is 1,648 percent higher than the level of wind development needed in Kansas by 2030 if the United States is to get 20 percent of its electricity from wind. Projects that avoid and offset impacts consistent with this analysis could be awarded "Green Certification." Certification may help to expand and sustain the wind industry by facilitating the completion of individual projects sited to avoid sensitive areas and protecting the industry's reputation as an ecologically friendly source of electricity.     

Great Apes and Biodiversity Offset Projects in Africa: The Case for National Offset Strategies

The development and private sectors are increasingly considering “biodiversity offsets” as a strategy to compensate for their negative impacts on biodiversity, including impacts on great apes and their habitats in Africa. In the absence of national offset policies in sub-Saharan Africa, offset design and implementation are guided by company internal standards, lending bank standards or international best practice principles. We examine four projects in Africa that are seeking to compensate for their negative impacts on great ape populations. Our assessment of these projects reveals that not all apply or implement best practices, and that there is little standardization in the methods used to measure losses and gains in species numbers. Even if they were to follow currently accepted best-practice principles, we find that these actions may still fail to contribute to conservation objectives over the long term. We advocate for an alternative approach in which biodiversity offset and compensation projects are designed and implemented as part of a National Offset Strategy that (1) takes into account the cumulative impacts of development in individual countries, (2) identifies priority offset sites, (3) promotes aggregated offsets, and (4) integrates biodiversity offset and compensation projects with national biodiversity conservation objectives. We also propose supplementary principles necessary for biodiversity offsets to contribute to great ape conservation in Africa. Caution should still be exercised, however, with regard to offsets until further field-based evidence of their effectiveness is available.     

An approach to enhance the conservation-compatibility of solar energy development

The rapid pace of climate change poses a major threat to biodiversity. Utility-scale renewable energy development (>1 MW capacity) is a key strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but development of those facilities also can have adverse effects on biodiversity. Here, we examine the synergy between renewable energy generation goals and those for biodiversity conservation in the 13 M ha Mojave Desert of the southwestern USA. We integrated spatial data on biodiversity conservation value, solar energy potential, and land surface slope angle (a key determinant of development feasibility) and found there to be sufficient area to meet renewable energy goals without developing on lands of relatively high conservation value. Indeed, we found nearly 200,000 ha of lower conservation value land below the most restrictive slope angle (<1%); that area could meet the state of California's current 33% renewable energy goal 1.8 times over. We found over 740,000 ha below the highest slope angle (<5%)--an area that can meet California's renewable energy goal seven times over. Our analysis also suggests that the supply of high quality habitat on private land may be insufficient to mitigate impacts from future solar projects, so enhancing public land management may need to be considered among the options to offset such impacts. Using the approach presented here, planners could reduce development impacts on areas of higher conservation value, and so reduce trade-offs between converting to a green energy economy and conserving biodiversity.     

Development by Design in Colombia: Making Mitigation Decisions Consistent with Conservation Outcomes

Mitigation policy and regulatory frameworks are consistent in their strong support for the mitigation hierarchy of: (1) avoiding impacts, (2) minimizing impacts, and then (3) offsetting/compensating for residual impacts. While mitigation frameworks require developers to avoid, minimize and restore biodiversity on-site before considering an offset for residual impacts, there is a lack of quantitative guidance for this decision-making process. What are the criteria for requiring impacts be avoided altogether? Here we examine how conservation planning can guide the application of the mitigation hierarchy to address this issue. In support of the Colombian government''s aim to improve siting and mitigation practices for planned development, we examined five pilot projects in landscapes expected to experience significant increases in mining, petroleum and/or infrastructure development. By blending landscape-level conservation planning with application of the mitigation hierarchy, we can proactively identify where proposed development and conservation priorities would be in conflict and where impacts should be avoided. The approach we outline here has been adopted by the Colombian Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development to guide licensing decisions, avoid piecemeal licensing, and promote mitigation decisions that maintain landscape condition.     

A Currency for Offsetting Energy Development Impacts: Horse-Trading Sage-Grouse on the Open Market

Background

Biodiversity offsets provide a mechanism to compensate for unavoidable damages from new energy development as the U.S. increases its domestic production. Proponents argue that offsets provide a partial solution for funding conservation while opponents contend the practice is flawed because offsets are negotiated without the science necessary to backup resulting decisions. Missing in negotiations is a biologically-based currency for estimating sufficiency of offsets and a framework for applying proceeds to maximize conservation benefits.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Here we quantify a common currency for offsets for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) by estimating number of impacted birds at 4 levels of development commonly permitted. Impacts were indiscernible at 1–12 wells per 32.2 km². Above this threshold lek losses were 2–5 times greater inside than outside of development and bird abundance at remaining leks declined by −32 to −77%. Findings reiterated the importance of time-lags as evidenced by greater impacts 4 years after initial development. Clustering well locations enabled a few small leks to remain active inside of developments.

Conclusions/Significance

Documented impacts relative to development intensity can be used to forecast biological trade-offs of newly proposed or ongoing developments, and when drilling is approved, anticipated bird declines form the biological currency for negotiating offsets.Monetary costs for offsets will be determined by true conservation cost to mitigate risks such as sagebrush tillage to other populations of equal or greater number. If this information is blended with landscape level conservation planning, the mitigation hierarchy can be improved by steering planned developments away from conservation priorities, ensuring compensatory mitigation projects deliver a higher return for conservation that equate to an equal number of birds in the highest priority areas, provide on-site mitigation recommendations, and provide a biologically based cost for mitigating unavoidable impacts.     

Balance between climate change mitigation benefits and land use impacts of bioenergy: conservation implications for European birds

Both climate change and habitat modification exert serious pressure on biodiversity. Although climate change mitigation has been identified as an important strategy for biodiversity conservation, bioenergy remains a controversial mitigation action due to its potential negative ecological and socio-economic impacts which arise through habitat modification by land use change. While the debate continues, the separate or simultaneous impacts of both climate change and bioenergy on biodiversity have not yet been compared. We assess projected range shifts of 156 European bird species by 2050 under two alternative climate change trajectories: a baseline scenario, where the global mean temperature increases by 4 °C by the end of the century, and a 2 degrees scenario, where global concerted effort limits the temperature increase to below 2 °C. For the latter scenario, we also quantify the pressure exerted by increased cultivation of energy biomass as modelled by IMAGE2.4, an integrated land use model. The global bioenergy use in this scenario is in the lower end of the range of previously estimated sustainable potential. Under the assumptions of these scenarios, we find that the magnitude of range shifts due to climate change is far greater than the impact of land conversion to woody bioenergy plantations within the European Union, and that mitigation of climate change reduces the exposure experienced by species. However, we identified potential for local conservation conflict between priority areas for conservation and bioenergy production. These conflicts must be addressed by strict bioenergy sustainability criteria that acknowledge biodiversity conservation needs beyond existing protected areas and apply also to biomass imported from outside the European Union.     

Considerable qualitative variability in local-level biodiversity surveys in Finland: A challenge for biodiversity offsetting

High-quality biodiversity monitoring is crucial in the era of rapid global biodiversity loss and for the evaluation of conservation outcomes at different spatial scales. Biodiversity offsets are conservation actions that aim to an outcome of no net loss of biodiversity by compensating for the negative impacts from development projects. Successful use of offsets requires that the biodiversity gains and losses between offset and development areas are adequately and comparably measured. Numerous local-level biodiversity surveys are conducted to estimate the biodiversity values of potential development areas in Finland every year. These surveys are done for local planning purposes, and their results are almost never published. We studied Finnish biodiversity surveys to assess their adequacy with regards to biodiversity offsetting. Our data included all biodiversity surveys (n = 206) documented in the region of Southwest Finland during the time period of 1997–2014. We analysed the surveys based on Finnish nature legislation and biodiversity related criteria gathered from other offset and conservation programs. We found the surveys to be inadequate in their assessment of nature values and spatial considerations for offset purposes. We used cluster analysis to study the differences between surveys based on the inventoried nature values and found surveys were clustered into 3 different groups. The characteristics of surveys also varied between individual surveyors. Our results show that the current execution of biodiversity surveys is not compatible enough with the quality of surveys needed for biodiversity offsets. Surveys must be standardized to ensure their comparability and sufficient measurement of biodiversity with ecologically and geographically important features.     

Policy Development for Environmental Licensing and Biodiversity Offsets in Latin America

Attempts to meet biodiversity goals through application of the mitigation hierarchy have gained wide traction globally with increased development of public policy, lending standards, and corporate practices. With interest in biodiversity offsets increasing in Latin America, we seek to strengthen the basis for policy development through a review of major environmental licensing policy frameworks in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela. Here we focused our review on an examination of national level policies to evaluate to which degree current provisions promote positive environmental outcomes. All the surveyed countries have national-level Environmental Impact Assessment laws or regulations that cover the habitats present in their territories. Although most countries enable the use of offsets only Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Peru explicitly require their implementation. Our review has shown that while advancing quite detailed offset policies, most countries do not seem to have strong requirements regarding impact avoidance. Despite this deficiency most countries have a strong foundation from which to develop policy for biodiversity offsets, but several issues require further guidance, including how best to: (1) ensure conformance with the mitigation hierarchy; (2) identify the most environmentally preferable offsets within a landscape context; (3) determine appropriate mitigation replacement ratios; and (4) ensure appropriate time and effort is given to monitor offset performance.     

Win-win for wind and wildlife: a vision to facilitate sustainable development

Wind energy offers the potential to reduce carbon emissions while increasing energy independence and bolstering economic development. However, wind energy has a larger land footprint per Gigawatt (GW) than most other forms of energy production, making appropriate siting and mitigation particularly important. Species that require large unfragmented habitats and those known to avoid vertical structures are particularly at risk from wind development. Developing energy on disturbed lands rather than placing new developments within large and intact habitats would reduce cumulative impacts to wildlife. The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that it will take 241 GW of terrestrial based wind development on approximately 5 million hectares to reach 20% electricity production for the U.S. by 2030. We estimate there are ～7,700 GW of potential wind energy available across the U.S., with ～3,500 GW on disturbed lands. In addition, a disturbance-focused development strategy would avert the development of ～2.3 million hectares of undisturbed lands while generating the same amount of energy as development based solely on maximizing wind potential. Wind subsidies targeted at favoring low-impact developments and creating avoidance and mitigation requirements that raise the costs for projects impacting sensitive lands could improve public value for both wind energy and biodiversity conservation.     

Large‐scale impact of climate change vs. land‐use change on future biome shifts in Latin America

Climate change and land‐use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental‐scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio‐economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5–6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land‐use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land‐use expansion is halted by the mid‐century. We suggest that constraining land‐use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate‐change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio‐economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change.     

森林管理的生态效应研究进展

森林管理是实现森林生产效益最大化的主要措施，是增加碳吸收以减缓气候变暖的关键手段，是调节区域水文循环的有效途径，是保护地以外实现生物多样性保护目标的重要补充。然而，追求单一生产功能的传统森林管理弱化了其他生态功能，并对森林景观结构和生物多样性产生负面影响。全球80%以上森林由于人类活动呈现不同程度退化进而影响人类福祉，森林管理需要优化以追求多维生态功能的协同共赢。当前，对于森林管理的生态效应仍有较多争论或未形成明确认识，可持续森林管理能否取得额外的气候效益仍有待确认，森林管理如何影响不同区域的水文生态功能仍未形成明确认识，不同类型森林管理或多或少、或正面或负面影响栖息地及不同种类生物多样性的强度和方向不明确。因此，森林管理的生态效应是一个值得深入探索的问题，未来需要深入量化不同管理措施对气候变化缓解、水文循环调节、生物多样性保护乃至提供其他生态功能的作用，将维持或提升生态功能及生物多样性作为可持续森林管理的一个重要目标，通过优化森林管理策略开展森林提质增效以获得最大收益。     

Wind and wildlife in the northern great plains: identifying low-impact areas for wind development

Wind energy offers the potential to reduce carbon emissions while increasing energy independence and bolstering economic development. However, wind energy has a larger land footprint per Gigawatt (GW) than most other forms of energy production and has known and predicted adverse effects on wildlife. The Northern Great Plains (NGP) is home both to some of the world's best wind resources and to remaining temperate grasslands, the most converted and least protected ecological system on the planet. Thus, appropriate siting and mitigation of wind development is particularly important in this region. Steering energy development to disturbed lands with low wildlife value rather than placing new developments within large and intact habitats would reduce impacts to wildlife. Goals for wind energy development in the NGP are roughly 30 GW of nameplate capacity by 2030. Our analyses demonstrate that there are large areas where wind development would likely have few additional impacts on wildlife. We estimate there are ～1,056 GW of potential wind energy available across the NGP on areas likely to have low-impact for biodiversity, over 35 times development goals. New policies and approaches will be required to guide wind energy development to low-impact areas.     

基于土地利用变化情景的生态系统服务价值评估: 以钱江源国家公园体制试点区为例

土地利用变化是生物多样性与生态系统服务变化的主要原因之一。评估土地利用变化对生物多样与生态系统服务影响对于政府决策具有重要作用。钱江源国家公园体制试点区是钱塘江的源头, 也是国家的重点生态功能区。本研究以钱江源国家公园体制试点区为研究区, 首先设计自然发展情景、规划情景、生态保护情景和开发利用情景等4种2025年不同土地利用变化情景, 随后采用InVEST模型和CLUE-S模型分析不同情景下钱江源国家公园水资源供给、涵养水源、固碳释氧、土壤保持、环境净化和生境质量等生态系统服务及其价值变化。结果表明: (1)核心保护区和生态保育区的生态系统服务价值占钱江源国家公园总价值的88.30%。(2)生态保护情景下钱江源国家公园生态系统服务价值最高, 有129.17亿元; 规划情景下生态系统服务价值次之, 有126.92亿元。(3)规划情景下钱江源国家公园水资源供给服务优于生态保护情景, 其他生态系统服务则次于生态保护情景。考虑到钱江源国家公园为下游提供重要的水资源这一功能, 将规划情景作为试点区2025年最优的土地利用变化情景。     

The impact of biomass crop cultivation on temperate biodiversity

The urgency for mitigation actions in response to climate change has stimulated policy makers to encourage the rapid expansion of bioenergy, resulting in major land‐use changes over short timescales. Despite the potential impacts on biodiversity and the environment, scientific concerns about large‐scale bioenergy production have only recently been given adequate attention. Environmental standards or legislative provisions in the majority of countries are still lagging behind the rapid development of energy crops. Ranging from the field to the regional scale, this review (i) summarizes the current knowledge about the impact of biomass crops on biodiversity in temperate regions, (ii) identifies knowledge gaps and (iii) drafts guidelines for a sustainable biomass crop production with respect to biodiversity conservation. The majority of studies report positive effects on biodiversity at the field scale but impacts strongly depend on the management, age, size and heterogeneity of the biomass plantations. At the regional scale, significant uncertainties exist and there is a major concern that extensive commercial production could have negative effects on biodiversity, in particular in areas of high nature‐conservation value. However, integration of biomass crops into agricultural landscapes could stimulate rural economy, thus counteracting negative impacts of farm abandonment or supporting restoration of degraded land, resulting in improved biodiversity values. Given the extent of landconversion necessary to reach the bioenergy targets, the spatial layout and distribution of biomass plantations will determine impacts. To ensure sustainable biomass crop production, biodiversity would therefore have to become an essential part of risk assessment measures in all those countries which have not yet committed to making it an obligatory part of strategic landscape planning. Integrated environmental and economic research is necessary to formulate standards that help support long‐term economic and ecological sustainability of biomass production and avoid costly mistakes in our attempts to mitigate climate change.     

Synergies and trade‐offs between renewable energy expansion and biodiversity conservation – a cross‐national multifactor analysis

Increased deployment of renewable energy can contribute towards mitigating climate change and improving air quality, wealth and development. However, renewable energy technologies are not free of environmental impacts; thus, it is important to identify opportunities and potential threats from the expansion of renewable energy deployment. Currently, there is no cross‐national comprehensive analysis linking renewable energy potential simultaneously to socio‐economic and political factors and biodiversity priority locations. Here, we quantify the relationship between the fraction of land‐based renewable energy (including solar photovoltaic, wind and bioenergy) potential available outside the top biodiversity areas (i.e. outside the highest ranked 30% priority areas for biodiversity conservation) within each country, with selected socio‐economic and geopolitical factors as well as biodiversity assets. We do so for two scenarios that identify priority areas for biodiversity conservation alternatively in a globally coordinated manner vs. separately for individual countries. We show that very different opportunities and challenges emerge if the priority areas for biodiversity protection are identified globally or designated nationally. In the former scenario, potential for solar, wind and bioenergy outside the top biodiversity areas is highest in developing countries, in sparsely populated countries and in countries of low biodiversity potential but with high air pollution mortality. Conversely, when priority areas for biodiversity protection are designated nationally, renewable energy potential outside the top biodiversity areas is highest in countries with good governance but also in countries with high biodiversity potential and population density. Overall, these results identify both clear opportunities but also risks that should be considered carefully when making decisions about renewable energy policies.     

自然保护区减缓和适应气候变化的管理有效性评估: 以广西12个典型自然保护区为例

建立自然保护区是生物多样性保护的根本措施, 而且自然保护区对减缓和适应气候变化具有重要的作用。生物多样性保护的压力在气候变化的胁迫下不断加剧, 因此, 有效的自然保护区管理必须考虑气候变化的影响。发展应对气候变化威胁的适应性管理技术以提高自然保护区管理有效性是自然保护区管理的迫切需求。但目前全球范围内还没有针对减缓和适应气候变化的自然保护区管理有效性评估工具。近半个世纪来广西气温持续升高且极端气候事件频次增加, 对广西各类生物生境产生了重要的影响。本文基于世界自然保护联盟(IUCN)的自然保护区减缓和适应气候变化管理框架和管理有效性评估框架, 在管理有效性跟踪工具(mangement effectiveness tracking tool, METT)基础上提出了自然保护区减缓和适应气候变化管理有效性评估工具(management effectiveness assessment tool of mitigation and adaptation on climate change, MEATMACC), 并使用该工具和METT对广西12个典型自然保护区进行了调查分析。结果表明: 国家级自然保护区的METT得分、MEATMACC得分分别比非国家级自然保护区高28.98%和43.91%; 国家级与非国家级自然保护区的METT得分无显著差异, 但MEATMACC得分差异极显著; 两个管理有效性评估工具得分率呈线性相关但差异不显著; 两个评估工具中背景、规划与影响3个要素得分率存在极显著差异。研究结果表明, 对于自然保护区减缓和适应气候变化的政策和技术支持仍需加强。     

Life Cycle Assessment of End‐of‐Life Management Options for Construction and Demolition Debris

A life cycle assessment (LCA) of various end‐of‐life management options for construction and demolition (C&D) debris was conducted using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Municipal Solid Waste Decision Support Tool. A comparative LCA evaluated seven different management scenarios using the annual production of C&D debris in New Hampshire as the functional unit. Each scenario encompassed C&D debris transport, processing, separation, and recycling, as well as varying end‐of‐life management options for the C&D debris (e.g., combustion to generate electricity versus landfilling for the wood debris stream and recycling versus landfilling for the nonwood debris stream) and different bases for the electricity generation offsets (e.g., the northeastern U.S. power grid versus coal‐fired power generation). A sensitivity analysis was also conducted by varying the energy content of the C&D wood debris and by examining the impact of basing the energy offsets on electricity generated from various fossil fuels. The results include impacts for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, criteria air pollutants, ancillary solid waste production, and organic and inorganic constituents in water emissions. Scenarios with nonwood C&D debris recycling coupled with combustion of C&D wood debris to generate electricity had lower impacts than other scenarios. The nonwood C&D debris recycling scenarios where C&D wood debris was landfilled resulted in less overall impact than the scenarios where all C&D debris was landfilled. The lowest impact scenario included nonwood C&D debris recycling with local combustion of the C&D wood debris to generate electricity, providing a net gain in energy production of more than 7 trillion British thermal units (BTU) per year and a 130,000 tons per year reduction in GHG emissions. The sensitivity analysis revealed that for energy consumption, the model is sensitive to the energy content of the C&D wood debris but insensitive to the basis for the energy offset, and the opposite is true for GHG emissions.     

Generating carbon finance through avoided deforestation and its potential to create climatic, conservation and human development benefits

Recent proposals to compensate developing countries for reducing emissions from deforestation (RED) under forthcoming climate change mitigation regimes are receiving increasing attention. Here we demonstrate that if RED credits were traded on international carbon markets, even moderate decreases in deforestation rates could generate billions of Euros annually for tropical forest conservation. We also discuss the main challenges for a RED mechanism that delivers real climatic benefits. These include providing sufficient incentives while only rewarding deforestation reductions beyond business-as-usual scenarios, addressing risks arising from forest degradation and international leakage, and ensuring permanence of emission reductions. Governance may become a formidable challenge for RED because some countries with the highest RED potentials score poorly on governance indices. In addition to climate mitigation, RED funds could help achieve substantial co-benefits for biodiversity conservation and human development. However, this will probably require targeted additional support because the highest biodiversity threats and human development needs may exist in countries that have limited income potentials from RED. In conclusion, how successfully a market-based RED mechanism can contribute to climate change mitigation, conservation and development will strongly depend on accompanying measures and carefully designed incentive structures involving governments, business, as well as the conservation and development communities.     

Global mapping of cost‐effective microalgal biofuel production areas with minimal environmental impact

Sustainable alternatives to fossil fuels are urgently needed to avoid severe climate impacts and further environmental degradation. Microalgae are one of the most productive crops globally and do not need to compete for arable land or freshwater resources. Hence, they may become a promising, more sustainable cultivation alternative for the large‐scale production of biofuels provided that substantial reductions are achieved in their production costs. In this study, we identify the most suitable areas globally for siting microalgal farms for biodiesel production that maximize profitability and minimize direct competition with food production and direct impacts on biodiversity, based on a spatially explicit multiple‐criteria decision analysis. We further explore the relationships between microalgal production, agricultural value, and biodiversity, and propose several solutions for siting microalgal production farms, based on current and future targets in energy production using integer linear programming. If using seawater for microalgal cultivation, biodiesel production could reach 5.85 × 10¹¹ L/year based on top suitable lands (i.e., between 13% and 16% of total transport energy demands in 2030) without directly competing with food production and areas of high biodiversity value. These areas are particularly abundant in the dry coasts of North and East Africa, the Middle East, and western South America. This is the first global analysis that incorporates economic and environmental feasibility for microalgal production sites. Our results can guide the selection of best locations for biofuel production using microalgae while minimizing conflicts with food production and biodiversity conservation.     

The trade-off between housing density and sprawl area: Minimising impacts to forest breeding birds

Increasing housing density is generally assumed to confer negative effects on forest breeding birds. This implies we should build at low density over the landscape to conserve these species. However, for a given human population, low-density development must cover a large area, resulting in sprawl. A pertinent question is then: at what housing density are the impacts of a given human population on forest biodiversity minimised? For a given human population, it is unclear whether the impacts on forest biodiversity are less where housing density is high and sprawl area is small or where housing density is low and sprawl area is large. We addressed this question using the abundance, species richness and evenness of forest birds in Ottawa, Ontario and Gatineau, Quebec, Canada. First, we counted breeding birds at 22 sites representing a range of housing densities. We then used these empirical measurements to estimate forest bird abundance, species richness and evenness in four hypothetical development scenarios representing the trade-off between housing density and sprawl area. With the exception of the Undeveloped scenario (i.e., continuous forest), forest birds and forest interior birds were most abundant in the Compact scenario and most speciose in the Semi-compact scenario, whereas forest edge birds were most abundant and speciose in the Dispersed scenario. All three bird groups were most even in the Compact scenario. We conclude that compact housing development (building at high density over a small area) minimises the impacts of a given human population on forest breeding birds.