Effects of Extreme Weather Events on Plant Productivity and Tissue Die-Back are Modified by Community Composition

Extreme weather events are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude due to climate change. Their effects on vegetation are widely unknown. Here, experimental grassland and heath communities in Central Europe were exposed either to a simulated single drought or to a prolonged heavy rainfall event. The magnitude of manipulations imitated the local 100-year weather extreme according to extreme value statistics. Overall productivity of both plant communities remained stable in the face of drought and heavy rainfall, despite significant effects on tissue die-back. Grassland communities were more resistant against the extreme weather events than heath communities. Furthermore, effects of extreme weather events on community tissue die-back were modified by functional diversity, even though conclusiveness in this part is limited by the fact that only one species composition was available per diversity level within this case study. More diverse grassland communities exhibited less tissue die-back than less complex grassland communities. On the other side, more diverse heath communities were more vulnerable to extreme weather events compared to less complex heath communities. Furthermore, legumes did not effectively contribute to the buffering against extreme weather events in both vegetation types. Tissue die-back proved a strong stress response in plant communities exposed to 100-year extreme weather events, even though one important ecosystem function, namely productivity, remained surprisingly stable in this experiment. Theories and concepts on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (insurance hypothesis, redundancy hypothesis) may have to be revisited when extreme weather conditions are considered.     

Different ways to die in a changing world: Consequences of climate change for tree species performance and survival through an ecophysiological perspective

Anthropogenic activities such as uncontrolled deforestation and increasing greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for triggering a series of environmental imbalances that affect the Earth's complex climate dynamics. As a consequence of these changes, several climate models forecast an intensification of extreme weather events over the upcoming decades, including heat waves and increasingly severe drought and flood episodes. The occurrence of such extreme weather will prompt profound changes in several plant communities, resulting in massive forest dieback events that can trigger a massive loss of biodiversity in several biomes worldwide. Despite the gravity of the situation, our knowledge regarding how extreme weather events can undermine the performance, survival, and distribution of forest species remains very fragmented. Therefore, the present review aimed to provide a broad and integrated perspective of the main biochemical, physiological, and morpho‐anatomical disorders that may compromise the performance and survival of forest species exposed to climate change factors, particularly drought, flooding, and global warming. In addition, we also discuss the controversial effects of high CO₂ concentrations in enhancing plant growth and reducing the deleterious effects of some extreme climatic events. We conclude with a discussion about the possible effects that the factors associated with the climate change might have on species distribution and forest composition.     

Soil biotic processes remain remarkably stable after 100-year extreme weather events in experimental grassland and heath

Climate change will increase the recurrence of extreme weather events such as drought and heavy rainfall. Evidence suggests that extreme weather events pose threats to ecosystem functioning, particularly to nutrient cycling and biomass production. These ecosystem functions depend strongly on below-ground biotic processes, including the activity and interactions among plants, soil fauna, and micro-organisms. Here, experimental grassland and heath communities of three phytodiversity levels were exposed either to a simulated single drought or to a heavy rainfall event. Both weather manipulations were repeated for two consecutive years. The magnitude of manipulations imitated the local 100-year extreme weather event. Heavy rainfall events increased below-ground plant biomass and stimulated soil enzyme activities as well as decomposition rates for both plant communities. In contrast, extreme drought did not reduce below-ground plant biomass and root length, soil enzyme activities, and cellulose decomposition rate. The low responsiveness of the measured ecosystem properties in face of the applied weather manipulations rendered the detection of significant interactions between weather events and phytodiversity impossible. Our data indicate on the one hand the close interaction between below ground plant parameters and microbial turnover processes in soil; on the other hand it shows that the plant–soil system can buffer against extreme drought events, at last for the period of investigation.     

Invasibility of grassland and heath communities exposed to extreme weather events – additive effects of diversity resistance and fluctuating physical environment

Understanding the resistance of plant communities to invasion is urgent in times of changes in the physical environment due to climate change and changes in the resident communities due to biodiversity loss. Here, we test the interaction between repeated drought or heavy rainfall events and functional diversity of grassland and heath communities on invasibility, measured as the number of plant individuals invading from the matrix vegetation. Invasibility of experimental plant communities was influenced by extreme weather events, although no change in above‐ground productivity of the resident communities was observed. Drought decreased invasibility while heavy rainfall increased invasibility, a pattern that is consistent with the fluctuating resource hypothesis. Higher community diversity generally decreased invasibility, which can be explained by a combination of the fluctuating resource hypothesis and niche theory. The effects of the physical environment (extreme weather events) and diversity resistance (community composition) were additive, as they were independent from each other. Differences in the composition of invading species sets were found, and Indicator Species Analysis revealed several invading species with significant affinity to one particular extreme weather event or community composition. This finding supports niche theory and contradicts neutral species assembly. Our data supports theories which predict decreased resistance of plant communities due to both increased climate variability and biodiversity loss. The effects of these two factors, however, appear to be independent from each other.     

Lasting effects of climate disturbance on perennial grassland above‐ground biomass production under two cutting frequencies

Climate extremes can ultimately reshape grassland services such as forage production and change plant functional type composition. This 3‐year field research studied resistance to dehydration and recovery after rehydration of plant community and plant functional types in an upland perennial grassland subjected to climate and cutting frequency (Cut+, Cut?) disturbances by measuring green tissue percentage and above‐ground biomass production (ANPP). In year 1, a climate disturbance gradient was applied by co‐manipulating temperature and precipitation. Four treatments were considered: control and warming‐drought climatic treatment, with or without extreme summer event. In year 2, control and warming‐drought treatments were maintained without extreme. In year 3, all treatments received ambient climatic conditions. We found that the grassland community was very sensitive to dehydration during the summer extreme: aerial senescence reached 80% when cumulated climatic water balance fell to ?156 mm and biomass declined by 78% at the end of summer. In autumn, canopy greenness and biomass totally recovered in control but not in the warming‐drought treatment. However ANPP decreased under both climatic treatments, but the effect was stronger on Cut+ (?24%) than Cut? (?15%). This decline was not compensated by the presence of three functional types because they were negatively affected by the climatic treatments, suggesting an absence of buffering effect on grassland production. In the following 2 years, lasting effects of climate disturbance on ANPP were observable. The unexpected stressful conditions of year 3 induced a decline in grassland production in the Cut+ control treatment. The fact that this treatment cumulated higher (45%) N export over the 3 years suggests that N plays a key role in ANPP stability. As ANPP in this mesic perennial grassland did not show engineering resilience, long‐term experimental manipulation is needed. Infrequent mowing appears more appropriate for sustaining grassland ANPP under future climate extremes.     

The invasion of plant communities following extreme weather events under ambient and elevated temperature

Although the problem of plant invasions is expected to increase with climate change, there is as yet little experimental evidence, in particular, for the effects of extreme weather events. We established communities of European meadow species, which were subjected to warming and extreme event (drought and deluge) treatments in a factorial design at an experimental garden in Zurich, Switzerland. Phylogenetically matched pairs of native and alien species (Bromus erectus, B. inermis, Trifolium pratense, T. hybridum, Lactuca serriola, and Conyza canadensis) were introduced into the communities to test if invader performance is favored by warming and extreme events, and if alien invaders perform better than native colonizers. With a warming of on average 0.3?°C, a higher cover of native plant communities was observed, while drought decreased cover in the short-term and lowered biomass. Germination, survival, and growth of the introduced species were lower under elevated temperature. Survival of all pairs and growth of Trifolium was greater in drought pots, while deluge had no effect. While the alien species showed a faster rate of increase in the number of leaves, mortality of alien species was greater than of native species. Overall, the performance of the focal species varied much more among taxonomic groups than native/alien provenances. The results suggest that with climate change, different types of extreme events will differ in the severity of their effects on native plant communities. Meanwhile, the effects of climate change on plant invasions are more likely to operate indirectly through the impacts on native vegetation.     

Effects of extreme weather events and legume presence on mycorrhization of Plantago lanceolata and Holcus lanatus in the field

Little is known about direct and indirect effects of extreme weather events on arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) under field conditions. In a field experiment, we investigated the response of mycorrhization to drought and heavy rain in grassland communities. We quantified AMF biomass in soil, mycorrhization of roots of the grass Holcus lanatus and the forb Plantago lanceolata, as well as plant performance. Plants were grown in four‐species communities with or without a legume. We hypothesised that drought increases and heavy rain decreases mycorrhization, and that higher mycorrhization will be linked to improved stress resistance and higher biomass production. Soil AMF biomass increased under both weather extremes. Heavy rain generally benefitted plants and increased arbuscules in P. lanceolata. Drought neither reduced plant performance nor root mycorrhization. Arbuscules increased in H. lanatus several weeks after drought, and in P. lanceolata several weeks after heavy rain spells. These long‐lasting effects of weather events on mycorrhization highlight the indirect influence of climate on AMF via their host plant. Legume presence increased plant community biomass, but had only minor effects on mycorrhization. Arbuscule colonisation was negatively correlated with senescence during the dry summer. Mycorrhization and biomass production in P. lanceolata were positively related. However, increased mycorrhization was related to less biomass in the grass. AMF mycelium in soil might generally increase under extreme events, root colonisation, however, is host species specific. This might amplify community shifts in grassland under climate change by further increasing stress resistance of species that already benefit from changed precipitation.     

Extreme weather events and plant–plant interactions: shifts between competition and facilitation among grassland species in the face of drought and heavy rainfall

Biotic interactions play an important role in ecosystem function and structure in the face of global climate change. We tested how plant–plant interactions, namely competition and facilitation among grassland species, respond to extreme drought and heavy rainfall events. We also examined how the functional composition (grasses, forbs, legumes) of grassland communities influenced the competition intensity for grass species when facing extreme events. We exposed experimental grassland communities of different functional compositions to either an extreme single drought event or to a prolonged heavy rainfall event. Relative neighbour effect, relative crowding and interaction strength were calculated for five widespread European grassland species to quantify competition. Single climatic extremes caused species specific shifts in plant–plant interactions from facilitation to competition or vice versa but the nature of the shifts varied depending on the community composition. Facilitation by neighbouring plants was observed for Arrhenatherum elatius when subjected to drought. Contrarily, the facilitative effect of neighbours on Lotus corniculatus was transformed into competition. Heavy rainfall increased the competitive effect of neighbours on Holcus lanatus and Lotus corniculatus in communities composed of three functional groups. Competitive pressure on Geranium pratense and Plantago lanceolata was not affected by extreme weather events. Neither heavy rainfall nor extreme drought altered the overall productivity of the grassland communities. The complementary responses in competition intensity experienced by grassland species under drought suggest biotic interactions as one stabilizing mechanism for overall community performance. Understanding competitive dynamics under fluctuating resources is important for assessing plant community shifts and degree of stability of ecosystem functions.     

Invasion windows for a global legume invader are revealed after joint examination of abiotic and biotic filters

• Successful alien plant invasion is influenced by both climate change and plant–plant interactions. We estimate the single and interactive effects of competition and extreme weather events on the performance of the global legume invader Lupinus polyphyllus (Lindl.).
• In three experimental studies we assessed (i) the stress tolerance of seedling and adult L. polyphyllus plants against extreme weather events (drought, fluctuating precipitation, late frost), (ii) the competitive effects of L. polyphyllus on native grassland species and vice versa, and (iii) the interactive effects of extreme weather events and competition on the performance of L. polyphyllus.
• Drought reduced growth and led to early senescence of L. polyphyllus but did not reduce adult survival. Fluctuating precipitation events and late frost reduced the length of inflorescences. Under control conditions, interspecific competition reduced photosynthetic activity and growth of L. polyphyllus. When subjected to competition during drought, L. polyphyllus conserved water while simultaneously maintaining high assimilation rates, demonstrating increased water use efficiency. Meanwhile, native species had reduced performance under drought.
• In summary, the invader gained an advantage under drought conditions through a smaller reduction in performance relative to its native competitors but was competitively inferior under control conditions. This provides evidence for a possible invasion window for this species. While regions of high elevation or latitude with regular severe late frost events might remain inaccessible for L. polyphyllus, further spread across Europe seems probable as the predicted increase in drought events may favour this non‐native legume over native species.

     

Beyond gradual warming: extreme weather events alter flower phenology of European grassland and heath species

Shifts in the phenology of plant and animal species or in the migratory arrival of birds are seen as ‘fingerprints’ of global warming. However, even if such responses have been documented in large continent‐wide datasets of the northern hemisphere, all studies to date correlate the phenological pattern of various taxa with gradual climatic trends. Here, we report a previously unobserved phenomenon: severe drought and heavy rain events caused phenological shifts in plants of the same magnitude as one decade of gradual warming. We present data from two vegetation periods in an experimental setting containing the first evidence of shifted phenological response of 10 grassland and heath species to simulated 100‐year extreme weather events in Central Europe. Averaged over all species, 32 days of drought significantly advanced the mid‐flowering date by 4 days. The flowering length was significantly extended by 4 days. Heavy rainfall (170 mm over 14 days) had no significant effect on the mid‐flowering date. However, heavy rainfall reduced the flowering length by several days. Observed shifts were species‐specific, (e.g. drought advanced the mid‐flowering date for Holcus lanatus by 1.5 days and delayed the mid‐flowering date for Calluna vulgaris by 5.7 days, heavy rain advanced mid‐flowering date of Lotus corniculatus by 26.6 days and shortened the flowering length of the same species by 36.9 days). Interestingly, the phenological response of individual species was modified by community composition. For example, the mid‐flowering date of C. vulgaris was delayed after drought by 9.3 days in communities composed of grasses and dwarf shrubs compared with communities composed of dwarf shrubs only. This indicates that responses to extreme events are context specific. Additionally, the phenological response of experimental communities to extreme weather events can be modified by the functional diversity of a stand. Future studies on phenological response patterns related to climate change would profit from explicitly addressing the role of extreme weather events.     

Spatial co‐localisation of extreme weather events: a clear and present danger

Extreme weather events have become a dominant feature of the narrative surrounding changes in global climate with large impacts on ecosystem stability, functioning and resilience; however, understanding of their risk of co‐occurrence at the regional scale is lacking. Based on the UK Met Office’s long‐term temperature and rainfall records, we present the first evidence demonstrating significant increases in the magnitude, direction of change and spatial co‐localisation of extreme weather events since 1961. Combining this new understanding with land‐use data sets allowed us to assess the likely consequences on future agricultural production and conservation priority areas. All land‐uses are impacted by the increasing risk of at least one extreme event and conservation areas were identified as the hotspots of risk for the co‐occurrence of multiple event types. Our findings provide a basis to regionally guide land‐use optimisation, land management practices and regulatory actions preserving ecosystem services against multiple climate threats.     

Forest understory plant and soil microbial response to an experimentally induced drought and heat‐pulse event: the importance of maintaining the continuum

Drought duration and intensity are expected to increase with global climate change. How changes in water availability and temperature affect the combined plant–soil–microorganism response remains uncertain. We excavated soil monoliths from a beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forest, thus keeping the understory plant–microbe communities intact, imposed an extreme climate event, consisting of drought and/or a single heat‐pulse event, and followed microbial community dynamics over a time period of 28 days. During the treatment, we labeled the canopy with ¹³CO₂ with the goal of (i) determining the strength of plant–microbe carbon linkages under control, drought, heat and heat–drought treatments and (ii) characterizing microbial groups that are tightly linked to the plant–soil carbon continuum based on ¹³C‐labeled PLFAs. Additionally, we used 16S rRNA sequencing of bacteria from the Ah horizon to determine the short‐term changes in the active microbial community. The treatments did not sever within‐plant transport over the experiment, and carbon sinks belowground were still active. Based on the relative distribution of labeled carbon to roots and microbial PLFAs, we determined that soil microbes appear to have a stronger carbon sink strength during environmental stress. High‐throughput sequencing of the 16S rRNA revealed multiple trajectories in microbial community shifts within the different treatments. Heat in combination with drought had a clear negative effect on microbial diversity and resulted in a distinct shift in the microbial community structure that also corresponded to the lowest level of label found in the PLFAs. Hence, the strongest changes in microbial abundances occurred in the heat–drought treatment where plants were most severely affected. Our study suggests that many of the shifts in the microbial communities that we might expect from extreme environmental stress will result from the plant–soil–microbial dynamics rather than from direct effects of drought and heat on soil microbes alone.     

Does an extreme drought event alter the response of grassland communities to a changing climate?

Global temperatures and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are expected to both increase, but their combined effect on plant communities has been far less investigated than the single factors of global change. Moreover, drought events are expected to become more frequent and intense in the near future what might alter plant responses to the changing climate.In this study synthesised grassland communities in a current or future climate were subjected to several drought levels (0, 15, 22 and 35 days of drought). The grassland communities were grown in six sunlit, climate-controlled chambers. Three of the chambers were exposed to ambient temperature and CO₂ (current climate), while the other three were continuously warmed 3 °C above ambient temperature at 620 ppm of CO₂ (future climate).The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of drought on the response of grassland communities to a future climate. Therefore, the response to future climate was observed (1) in the absence of drought and (2) in the occurrence of an extreme drought event, both early and late in the growing season.

• (1)In the absence of drought, plant productivity was positively affected by future climate early in the growing season. Later in the growing season this effect tended to turn negative, resulting in a disappearance of the overall effect of climate at the end of the growing season.
• (2)During drought there was a stronger decrease in net CO₂ assimilation rate (A_sat) in future than in current climate due to stronger stomatal closure. Consistently, the beneficial biomass response to future climate stagnated during drought. At the end of the season, after a period of recovery, there was no effect of climate on plant productivity. As in the absence of drought, plant productivity was not affected by climate at the end of the growing season. Hence, the occurrence of an extreme drought event during the growing season did not alter the overall response of plant productivity to a future climate.

     

基于NDVI的云南省2009-2010年干旱遗产效应研究

气候变化正导致干旱事件发生的强度、频度显著改变,极端气候事件发生的不确定性直接影响陆地生态系统关键生态过程。我国西南地区在2009-2010年发生百年一遇的极端干旱,目前关于植被生长在长时间尺度对此次干旱事件的响应尚不明确。以云南省为研究区,基于多年Normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)影像数据以及长时间序列气象资料对此次极端事件的干旱遗产效应开展研究,分析了干旱遗产效应的持续时间以及不同植被类型的响应差异。结果表明:1)云南省植被生长在极端干旱事件发生后受到的抑制时间大约持续1-2年,受影响区域主要集中在遭遇降水严重减少的地区;2)海拔2000 m附近为植被对干旱响应最为敏感的区域,海拔高于4000 m的植被生长几乎未受到干旱影响;3)较之草地和农田,森林植被受到的抑制作用更为强烈。研究揭示了极端干旱对云南省植被生长造成的影响,为该地区未来应对极端干旱并有效开展植被恢复提供理论依据。     

澜沧江流域暴雨干旱灾害与海温异常波动规律的相关性

基于中国气象局国家气象信息中心提供的澜沧江区域1961—2011年50年气象资料,采用EMD(Empirical Mode Decomposition)分解、均生函数逐步回归模型、相关分析等方法,探讨了澜沧江流域极端天气灾害的变化特征,及其区域极端灾害变化和全球海温异常ENSO(El Nio/La Nia-Southern Oscillation)之间的联系。结果表明:(1)该区域降水和暴雨频次存在多尺度特征,降水量存在2a、7a、15a的变化周期,且主周期为准2 a。(2)降水量和暴雨频度序列的IMF1和IMF2周期在2—7 a之间,与ENSO在年际变化上的信号相吻合,NINO(El Nio)指数无论春夏秋冬或年际都与暴雨和干旱灾害频次呈现负相关,而SOI(Southern Oscillation Index)指数则呈现正相关,其中,NINO指数与干旱相关性指数在秋冬和年际接近-0.3。(3)澜沧江流域暴雨和干旱灾害与ENSO有重要联系,且随着气温升高干旱灾害频次明显增加。研究结果显示区域极端气温灾害的变化与全球气候变暖有某种关联,是全球气候变化的区域响应表现形式之一。     

Historical and event‐based bioclimatic suitability predicts regional forest vulnerability to compound effects of severe drought and bark beetle infestation

Vulnerability to climate change, and particularly to climate extreme events, is expected to vary across species ranges. Thus, we need tools to standardize the variability in regional climatic legacy and extreme climate across populations and species. Extreme climate events (e.g., droughts) can erode populations close to the limits of species' climatic tolerance. Populations in climatic‐core locations may also become vulnerable because they have developed a greater demand for resources (i.e., water) that cannot be enough satisfied during the periods of scarcity. These mechanisms can become exacerbated in tree populations when combined with antagonistic biotic interactions, such as insect infestation. We used climatic suitability indices derived from Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to standardize the climatic conditions experienced across Pinus edulis populations in southwestern North America, during a historical period (1972–2000) and during an extreme event (2001–2007), when the compound effect of hot drought and bark beetle infestation caused widespread die‐off and mortality. Pinus edulis climatic suitability diminished dramatically during the die‐off period, with remarkable variation between years. P. edulis die‐off occurred mainly not just in sites that experienced lower climatic suitability during the drought but also where climatic suitability was higher during the historical period. The combined effect of historically high climatic suitability and a marked decrease in the climatic suitability during the drought best explained the range‐wide mortality. Lagged effects of climatic suitability loss in previous years and co‐occurrence of Juniperus monosperma also explained P. edulis die‐off in particular years. Overall, the study shows that past climatic legacy, likely determining acclimation, together with competitive interactions plays a major role in responses to extreme drought. It also provides a new approach to standardize the magnitude of climatic variability across populations using SDMs, improving our capacity to predict population's or species' vulnerability to climatic change.     

Experimental icing affects growth,mortality, and flowering in a high Arctic dwarf shrub

Effects of climate change are predicted to be greatest at high latitudes, with more pronounced warming in winter than summer. Extreme mid‐winter warm spells and heavy rain‐on‐snow events are already increasing in frequency in the Arctic, with implications for snow‐pack and ground‐ice formation. These may in turn affect key components of Arctic ecosystems. However, the fitness consequences of extreme winter weather events for tundra plants are not well understood, especially in the high Arctic. We simulated an extreme mid‐winter rain‐on‐snow event at a field site in high Arctic Svalbard (78°N) by experimentally encasing tundra vegetation in ice. After the subsequent growing season, we measured the effects of icing on growth and fitness indices in the common tundra plant, Arctic bell‐heather (Cassiope tetragona). The suitability of this species for retrospective growth analysis enabled us to compare shoot growth in pre and postmanipulation years in icing treatment and control plants, as well as shoot survival and flowering. Plants from icing treatment plots had higher shoot mortality and lower flowering success than controls. At the individual sample level, heavily flowering plants invested less in shoot growth than nonflowering plants, while shoot growth was positively related to the degree of shoot mortality. Therefore, contrary to expectation, undamaged shoots showed enhanced growth in ice treatment plants. This suggests that following damage, aboveground resources were allocated to the few remaining undamaged meristems. The enhanced shoot growth measured in our icing treatment plants has implications for climate studies based on retrospective analyses of Cassiope. As shoot growth in this species responds positively to summer warming, it also highlights a potentially complex interaction between summer and winter conditions. By documenting strong effects of icing on growth and reproduction of a widespread tundra plant, our study contributes to an understanding of Arctic plant responses to projected changes in winter climatic conditions.     

Differentiating drought legacy effects on vegetation growth over the temperate Northern Hemisphere

In view of future changes in climate, it is important to better understand how different plant functional groups (PFGs) respond to warmer and drier conditions, particularly in temperate regions where an increase in both the frequency and severity of drought is expected. The patterns and mechanisms of immediate and delayed impacts of extreme drought on vegetation growth remain poorly quantified. Using satellite measurements of vegetation greenness, in‐situ tree‐ring records, eddy‐covariance CO₂ and water flux measurements, and meta‐analyses of source water of plant use among PFGs, we show that drought legacy effects on vegetation growth differ markedly between forests, shrubs and grass across diverse bioclimatic conditions over the temperate Northern Hemisphere. Deep?rooted forests exhibit a drought legacy response with reduced growth during up to 4 years after an extreme drought, whereas shrubs and grass have drought legacy effects of approximately 2 years and 1 year, respectively. Statistical analyses partly attribute the differences in drought legacy effects among PFGs to plant eco‐hydrological properties (related to traits), including plant water use and hydraulic responses. These results can be used to improve the representation of drought response of different PFGs in land surface models, and assess their biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks in response to a warmer and drier climate.     

Characterizing drought stress and trait influence on maize yield under current and future conditions

Global climate change is predicted to increase temperatures, alter geographical patterns of rainfall and increase the frequency of extreme climatic events. Such changes are likely to alter the timing and magnitude of drought stresses experienced by crops. This study used new developments in the classification of crop water stress to first characterize the typology and frequency of drought‐stress patterns experienced by European maize crops and their associated distributions of grain yield, and second determine the influence of the breeding traits anthesis‐silking synchrony, maturity and kernel number on yield in different drought‐stress scenarios, under current and future climates. Under historical conditions, a low‐stress scenario occurred most frequently (ca. 40%), and three other stress types exposing crops to late‐season stresses each occurred in ca. 20% of cases. A key revelation shown was that the four patterns will also be the most dominant stress patterns under 2050 conditions. Future frequencies of low drought stress were reduced by ca. 15%, and those of severe water deficit during grain filling increased from 18% to 25%. Despite this, effects of elevated CO₂ on crop growth moderated detrimental effects of climate change on yield. Increasing anthesis‐silking synchrony had the greatest effect on yield in low drought‐stress seasonal patterns, whereas earlier maturity had the greatest effect in crops exposed to severe early‐terminal drought stress. Segregating drought‐stress patterns into key groups allowed greater insight into the effects of trait perturbation on crop yield under different weather conditions. We demonstrate that for crops exposed to the same drought‐stress pattern, trait perturbation under current climates will have a similar impact on yield as that expected in future, even though the frequencies of severe drought stress will increase in future. These results have important ramifications for breeding of maize and have implications for studies examining genetic and physiological crop responses to environmental stresses.     

Seed provenance for changing climates: early growth traits of nonlocal seed are better adapted to future climatic scenarios,but not to current field conditions

The urgency to repair degraded ecosystems is challenged by the need to future‐proof populations to deal with changing climates. Therefore, it is necessary to know if source gene‐pools are resilient to both current and future climatic conditions. We tested this question with the pioneer shrub Hardenbergia violacea (Fabaceae), an important species for restoration in eastern Australia. We evaluated in situ and ex situ performance of seed from eight provenances, two local and six from regions receiving hotter and wetter spring to autumn conditions and/or drier winters and we included wild and commercial collections. We compared survivorship of seedlings in climate‐houses that emulated current and predicted temperature and rainfall. In the field, we measured germination and seedling survivorship. We used neutral codominant markers to provide inbreeding and heterozygosity estimates to evaluate against health and survivorship. All provenances survived the current conditions, but local provenances were the poorest performers in the predicted hotter and wetter scenario compared with nonlocal provenances. No provenance survived more than a fortnight of a climate‐house simulated, but predicted, extreme weather event of a drought (35/22°C 12 hours day/night, 50 mL/week = 220 mm rainfall). Heterozygosity was positively associated with plant health in surviving plants, and plants in poor condition had high inbreeding estimates. In the field, nonlocal provenances performed poorly and most survivors were from local provenances. The contribution of individual genetic variation to stress tolerance will be an important consideration when selecting provenances for future climates.