Preliminary results on phosphorus reduction in Lough Neagh - Assessing the effect against a background of change

Lough Neagh is a large (387 km²), shallow (mean depth 8.9 m) eutrophic lake. The phosphorus budget is described in order to illustrate that 75% of the particulate phosphorus input sediments to the bottom and that there is little retention of SRP in the lake. 54% of the SRP loading comes from sewage works and this is being reduced by phosphorus reduction at the major sewage works. There has been a downturn in the maximum algal crops, particularly of blue-green algae. However, there is an underlying upward trend in SRP loading and the paper stresses the importance of analysing trends in nutrient budgets to get an accurate evaluation of reduction strategies.     

Nitrogen Cycles: Past, Present, and Future

This paper contrasts the natural and anthropogenic controls on the conversion of unreactive N₂ to more reactive forms of nitrogen (Nr). A variety of data sets are used to construct global N budgets for 1860 and the early 1990s and to make projections for the global N budget in 2050. Regional N budgets for Asia, North America, and other major regions for the early 1990s, as well as the marine N budget, are presented to Highlight the dominant fluxes of nitrogen in each region. Important findings are that human activities increasingly dominate the N budget at the global and at most regional scales, the terrestrial and open ocean N budgets are essentially disconnected, and the fixed forms of N are accumulating in most environmental reservoirs. The largest uncertainties in our understanding of the N budget at most scales are the rates of natural biological nitrogen fixation, the amount of Nr storage in most environmental reservoirs, and the production rates of N₂ by denitrification.     

A Probabilistic Dynamic Material Flow Analysis Model for Chinese Urban Housing Stock

The stock‐driven dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) model is one of the prevalent tools to investigate the evolution and related material metabolism of the building stock. There exists substantial uncertainty inherent to input parameters of the stock‐driven dynamic building stock MFA model, which has not been comprehensively evaluated yet. In this study, a probabilistic, stock‐driven dynamic MFA model is established and China's urban housing stock is selected as the empirical case. This probabilistic dynamic MFA model has the ability to depict the future evolution pathway of China's housing stock and capture uncertainties in its material stock, inflow, and outflow. By means of probabilistic methods, a detailed and transparent estimation of China's housing stock and its material metabolism behavior is presented. Under a scenario with a saturation level of the population, urbanization, and living space, the median value of the urban housing stock area, newly completed area, and demolished area would peak at around 49, 2.2, and 2.2 billion square meters, respectively. The corresponding material stock and flows are 79, 3.5, and 3.3 billion tonnes, respectively. Uncertainties regarding housing stock and its material stock and flows are non‐negligible. Relative uncertainties of the material stock and flows are above 50%. The uncertainty importance analysis demonstrates that the material intensity and the total population are major contributions to the uncertainty. Policy makers in the housing sector should consider the material efficiency as an essential policy to mitigate material flows of the urban building stock and to lower the risk of policy failures.     

A Novel Approach to Characterize Data Uncertainty in Material Flow Analysis and its Application to Plastics Flows in Austria

Material flow analysis (MFA) is widely used to investigate flows and stocks of resources or pollutants in a defined system. Data availability to quantify material flows on a national or global level is often limited owing to data scarcity or lacking data. MFA input data are therefore considered inherently uncertain. In this work, an approach to characterize the uncertainty of MFA input data is presented and applied to a case study on plastics flows in major Austrian consumption sectors in the year 2010. The developed approach consists of data quality assessment as a basis for estimating the uncertainty of input data. Four different implementations of the approach with respect to the translation of indicator scores to uncertainty ranges (linear‐ vs. exponential‐type functions) and underlying probability distributions (normal vs. log‐normal) are examined. The case study results indicate that the way of deriving uncertainty estimates for material flows has a stronger effect on the uncertainty ranges of the resulting plastics flows than the assumptions about the underlying probability distributions. Because these uncertainty estimates originate from data quality evaluation as well as uncertainty characterization, it is crucial to use a well‐defined approach, building on several steps to ensure the consistent translation of the data quality underlying material flow calculations into their associated uncertainties. Although subjectivity is inherent in uncertainty assessment in MFA, the proposed approach is consistent and provides a comprehensive documentation of the choices underlying the uncertainty analysis, which is essential to interpret the results and use MFA as a decision support tool.     

Global Patterns and Trends for Non‐Metallic Minerals used for Construction

Despite accounting for almost 50% of global material use, nonmetallic minerals—mostly used for construction of buildings and infrastructure—are the material flow analysis (MFA) category with the highest uncertainty. The main reason for this is incomplete reporting in official national statistics because of ease of availability and the low per‐unit cost of these materials. However, the environmental burden associated with nonmetallic minerals, which include energy use for extraction and transport, land‐use change, and disposal of large amounts of construction demolition waste, call for a thorough understanding of the magnitude of nonmetallic mineral flows. Previous estimates for nonmetallic minerals have used simplistic assumptions. This study aims to increase the precision of nonmetallic mineral accounts at national and global level using consumption of bitumen, bricks, cement, and railways in combination with technical coefficients from the engineering literature to infer the actual yearly consumption of nonmetallic minerals. We estimate the extraction of nonmetallic minerals and provide uncertainty estimates for the new accounts as well as information about consumption by different sectors. Analyzing the evolution of consumption for seven world regions, we find that, in North America and Europe, the consumption of nonmetallic minerals over the past 40 years has followed the growth patterns of population, whereas for all other regions consumption has been closely related to gross domestic product (GDP). A more accurate account of global and country‐by‐country extraction of nonmetallic minerals may provide insights into supply shortages and inform waste management strategies for construction and demolition waste.     

Progress toward Global Reduction in Under-Five Mortality: A Bootstrap Analysis of Uncertainty in Millennium Development Goal 4 Estimates

Background

Millennium Development Goal 4 calls for an annual rate of reduction (ARR) of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) of 4.4% between 1990 and 2015. Progress is measured through the point estimates of the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME). To facilitate evidence-based conclusions about progress toward the goal, we assessed the uncertainty in the estimates arising from sampling errors and biases in data series and the inferior quality of specific data series.

Methods and Findings

We implemented a bootstrap procedure to construct 90% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for the U5MR and ARR to complement the UN IGME estimates. We constructed the bounds for all countries without a generalized HIV epidemic, where a standard estimation approach is carried out (174 countries). In the bootstrap procedure, potential biases in levels and trends of data series of different source types were accounted for. There is considerable uncertainty about the U5MR, particularly for high mortality countries and in recent years. Among 86 countries with a U5MR of at least 40 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1990, the median width of the UI, relative to the U5MR level, was 19% for 1990 and 48% for 2011, with the increase in uncertainty due to more limited data availability. The median absolute width of the 90% UI for the ARR from 1990 to 2011 was 2.2%. Although the ARR point estimate for all high mortality countries was greater than zero, for eight of them uncertainty included the possibility of no improvement between 1990 and 2011. For 13 countries, it is deemed likely that the ARR from 1990 to 2011 exceeded 4.4%.

Conclusions

In light of the upcoming evaluation of Millennium Development Goal 4 in 2015, uncertainty assessments need to be taken into account to avoid unwarranted conclusions about countries'' progress based on limited data. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

The energy budget of Tetrahymena and the material fluxes into and out of the adenylate pool

The material budget of the adenylate pool deals with all processes which physically establish and maintain this pool, while the energy budget is concerned with the intracompartmental ATP recycling. Both budgets were analysed in Tetrahymena thermophila exposed to various energy and material demands. Some of the general conclusions are: at a maximum growth rate the overall ATP consumption during one cell cycle is 10(-10) mol ATP; the contribution of osmoregulation and ciliary motion to the budget is about 1% each; at zero net growth, energy is consumed because of a continuous recycling of matter between the monomer and the polymer compartment. The rate of ATP production is about 1000-fold greater than the rate of adenylate monomer influx. The residence time of adenylate monomers within the pool is about 30 min, but for ATP molecules it is only 2 sec.     

Global Phosphorus Flows in the Industrial Economy From a Production Perspective

Human activity has quadrupled the mobilization of phosphorus (P), a nonrenewable resource that is not fully recycled biologically or industrially. P is accumulated in both water and solid waste due to fertilizer application and industrial, agricultural, and animal P consumption. This paper characterizes the industrial flows, which, although smaller than the agricultural and animal flows, are an important phosphorus source contributing to the pollution of surface waters. We present the quantification of the network of flows as constrained by mass balances of the global annual metabolism of phosphorus, based on global consumption for 2004, all of which eventually ends up as waste and in the soil and water systems. We find that on a yearly basis, 18.9 million metric tons (MMT) of P is produced, of which close to 75% goes to fertilizer and the rest to industrial and others uses. Phosphoric acid is the precursor for many of the intermediate and end uses of phosphate compounds described in this study and accounts for almost 80% of all P consumed. Eventually, all of the P goes to waste: 18.5 MMT ends up in the soil as solid waste, and 1.32 MMT is emissions to air and water. Besides quantifying P flows through our economy, we also consider some possible measures that could be taken to increase the degree of recovery and optimization of this resource and others that are closely related, such as the recovery of sulfur from gypsum and wastewater (sludge), and fluorine from wet phosphoric acid production.     

Estimating Uncertainty in Ecosystem Budget Calculations

Ecosystem nutrient budgets often report values for pools and fluxes without any indication of uncertainty, which makes it difficult to evaluate the significance of findings or make comparisons across systems. We present an example, implemented in Excel, of a Monte Carlo approach to estimating error in calculating the N content of vegetation at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire. The total N content of trees was estimated at 847 kg ha⁻¹ with an uncertainty of 8%, expressed as the standard deviation divided by the mean (the coefficient of variation). The individual sources of uncertainty were as follows: uncertainty in allometric equations (5%), uncertainty in tissue N concentrations (3%), uncertainty due to plot variability (6%, based on a sample of 15 plots of 0.05 ha), and uncertainty due to tree diameter measurement error (0.02%). In addition to allowing estimation of uncertainty in budget estimates, this approach can be used to assess which measurements should be improved to reduce uncertainty in the calculated values. This exercise was possible because the uncertainty in the parameters and equations that we used was made available by previous researchers. It is important to provide the error statistics with regression results if they are to be used in later calculations; archiving the data makes resampling analyses possible for future researchers. When conducted using a Monte Carlo framework, the analysis of uncertainty in complex calculations does not have to be difficult and should be standard practice when constructing ecosystem budgets.     

Towards a Dynamic Approach to Urban Metabolism: Tracing the Temporal Evolution of Brussels’ Urban Metabolism from 1970 to 2010

Urban metabolism (UM) is a way of characterizing the flows of materials and energy through and within cities. It is based on a comparison of cities to living organisms, which, like cities, require energy and matter flows to function and which generate waste during the mobilization of matter. Over the last 40 years, this approach has been applied in numerous case studies. Because of the data‐intensive nature of a UM study, however, this methodology still faces some challenges. One such challenge is that most UM studies only present macroscopic results on either energy, water, or material flows at a particular point in time. This snapshot of a particular flow does not allow the tracing back of the flow's evolution caused by a city's temporal dynamics. To better understand the temporal dynamics of a UM, this article first presents the UM for Brussels Capital Region for 2010, including energy, water, material, and pollution flows. A temporal evaluation of these metabolic flows, as well as some urban characteristics starting from the seminal study of Duvigneaud and Denayer‐De Smet in the early 1970s to 2010, is then carried out. This evolution shows that Brussels electricity, natural gas, and water use increased by 160%, 400%, and 15%, respectively, over a period of 40 years, whereas population only increased by 1%. The effect of some urban characteristics on the UM is then briefly explored. Finally, this article succinctly compares the evolution of Brussels’ UM with those of Paris, Vienna, Barcelona, and Hong Kong and concludes by describing further research pathways that enable a better understanding of the complex functioniong of UM over time.     

内蒙古达赉湖地区蒙原羚繁殖期及其前后昼间行为时间分配及能量平衡策略

2007年11月、12月和2008年3月,在内蒙古达赉湖地区,采用扫描取样法对雌雄蒙原羚繁殖期及其前后昼间行为时间分配进行了研究。 研究表明：（1）繁殖期前、繁殖期和繁殖期后,雌性蒙原羚采食时间,占昼间活动时间的比例分别为（44.9±3.8）%、（43.5±4.0）% 和 (46.2±3.1)%;卧息时间,占昼间活动时间的比例分别 为（32.3±4.8）%、（29.2±2.9）% 和 (28.0±4.8)%;雌性蒙原羚在繁殖期及其前后采食、移动和卧息的行为时间分配差异不显著（P>0.05）,站立、繁殖、“其他”行为时间分配差异性显著（P<0.05）。（2）繁殖期前、繁殖期和繁殖期后, 雄性蒙原羚采食时间,占昼间活动时间的比例分别为 (52.6±3.8)%、(17.5±2.8)% 和 (29.8±4.8)%;卧息时间,占昼间活动时间的比例分别为 (13.4±6.4)%、(24.2±4.1)% 和 (44.2±4.7)%。雄性蒙原羚在繁殖期及其前后采食、卧息、站立、移动、繁殖、“其他”时间分配均有显著差异（P<0.05）。动物采食卧息的行为时间分配反映动物的能量平衡策略。雌性蒙原羚的时间分配表明,雌性蒙原羚的能量平衡策略在繁殖期前、繁殖期和繁殖期后没有发生显著变化,均为能量摄入最优化策略,尽可能多的时间分配在采食上;雄性蒙原羚的时间分配表明,在繁殖期前,其能量平衡策略为能量摄入最优化策略,尽可能多的时间分配在采食上;雄性蒙原羚繁殖期及繁殖期后其能量平衡策略转变为能量支出优化策略,尽可能少的支出能量,尽可能多的时间分配在卧息上。     

On the phosphorus budget of a perennial herbSolidago altissima population

The same methods were used to study the phosphorus budget of aSolidago altissima population on the flood plain of the Tone River as were used for the nitrogen budget studies. The standing crop of phosphorus and the phosphorus flow through the population were determined seasonally and annually. The annual absorption of phosphorus was 2.25 g/m²/year, which is the same as the annual return to the environment. Turnover rates of phosphorus were calculated. Whether expressed seasonally or annually, turnover rates of phosphorus were larger than those of nitrogen. Phosphorus utility, net dry matter productivity of a unit amount of phosphorus absorbed, in this population was 1,060. This was in the range reported on other perennial herb communities. Phosphorus cycling in the population was quantified. Total phosphorus input to organs and the amount of phosphorus recycled in the living plants were 3.67 g/m²/year and 1.42 g/m²/year, respectively. The proportion of recycling to the total movement of phosphorus in the plant was 39%, which was lower than that of nitrogen. Comparing the phosphorus and nitrogen budgets in the population, it was concluded that larger recycling of an element results in a smaller turnover rate of the element in the population.     

基于MFA和DEA的区域经济环境效率评价-以辽宁省为例

对经济与环境效率的科学评价是实现区域可持续发展的前提。运用物质流分析将辽宁省经济系统中数据进行物质化处理,再利用改进的数据包络分析模型对环境和经济效率进行综合评价。结果表明:辽宁省物资消费不主要依赖于进口,向其它地区物质输出量大;环境效率评价的综合效率主要受规模因素影响而显著低于纯技术效率,而整体经济的综合效率却主要受纯技术效率影响而下降。第二产业比重依然偏大的产业结构特征是导致上述结果的主因。进一步改造提升传统产业,发展战略性新兴产业,提高第三产业发展水平,扩大环保规模,促进居民生活质量水平全面提升,将是辽宁省以及与之相似的资源依赖型区域可持续发展的方向。     

社会经济系统磷物质流分析--以安徽省含山县为例

氮、磷等营养物质过量输入是造成我国湖泊富营养化问题日益严重的根源,磷作为水体富营养化过程关键限制元素,主要来自流域社会经济系统中的人类活动排放,因此,定量刻画社会经济系统内的磷流动路径是追踪水体外源磷来源和进行有效控制磷排放量的前提。以巢湖流域的安徽省含山县为例,构建社会经济系统磷流分析框架,建立磷流核算模型,并在实地调查和数据统计分析的基础上定量刻画了含山县2008年度社会经济系统磷流路径。结果表明,2008年含山县社会经济系统向水体排放的磷总量为1592t,其中农业种植子系统的排放所占比例最大(77%),该子系统的磷利用效率也较低(45%)。因此,含山县富营养化治理的重点是优化农业种植系统的磷流路径,主要措施包括合理施肥、科学排灌等。     

The phosphorus budget of the Marsdiep tidal basin (Dutch Wadden Sea) in the period 1950–1985: importance of the exchange with the North Sea

Nutrient and carbon budgets of the western part of the Dutch Wadden Sea are based on the concept formulated by Postma (1954): import of organic compounds from the North Sea, mineralization in the estuary ans subsequently an export of dissolved inorganic nutrients to the North Sea. In this paper the phosphorus budget of the westernmost part of the Wadden Sea (Marsdiep basin) during the period 1950–1985 is considered to evaluate this concept and to investigate whether eutrophication processes have changed these P-budgets during the last decades. Most attention is paid to the importance of the exchange of P-components between the tidal basin and the open sea. The budgets are based on a general mass balance equation in which the main entries are the loadings via the freshwater sources, the net sediment-water exchange, the exchange with the North Sea, the input from the adjacent Vlie basin, and a transformation term representing the interchange between dissolved and particulate phosphorus. Averaged over the entire period 55% of the phosphate input (SRP) to the basin is delivered by the fresh water sources, and 45% by the Vlie basin. For non-SRP components these numbers are 50% and 40% respectively, while only 10% comes from the North Sea. The import from the North Sea, as calculated by our model thus seems less important than previously documented. There is a clear effect of the eutrophication during the last decades. In the first 20 years of the period investigated there was a moderate increase in the TP input to the basin, partly caused by an increasing input of non-SRP (TP minus soluble reactive phosphorus) from the North Sea. In 1970/71 almost 30% of the non-SRP loading originated from the North Sea. From approximately 1975 onwards this import of non-SRP turns into an export, while the TP-loading from the other sources inclined, until a maximum was reached in 1981. Recently a decrease in the TP-inputs has been observed. It is concluded that the recent output of phosphorus from the Marsdiep basin may have a considerable impact on the adjacent area of the North Sea.Publication no. 2 of the project Applied Scientific Research Neth Inst. for Sea Res. (BEWON).     

Effects of phosphorus availability and vesicular–arbuscular mycorrhizas on the carbon budget of common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris)

Low phosphorus availability is often a primary constraint to plant productivity in native soils. Here we test the hypothesis that root carbon costs are a primary limitation to plant growth in low P soils by assessing the effect of P availability and mycorrhizal infection on whole plant C budgets in common bean ( Phaseolus vulgaris L.). Plants were grown in solid-phase-buffered silica sand providing a constant supply of low (1 μ m ) or moderate (10 μ m ) P. Carbon budgets were determined weekly during the vegetative growth phase. Mycorrhizal infection in low-P plants increased the root specific P absorption rate, but a concurrent increase in root respiration consumed the increased net C gain resulting from greater P uptake. The energy content of mycorrhizal and non-mycorrhizal roots was similar. We propose that the increase in root respiration in mycorrhizal roots was mainly due to increased maintenance and growth respiration of the fungal tissue. Plants grown with low P availability expended a significantly larger fraction of their total daily C budget on below-ground respiration at days 21, 28 and 35 after planting (29–40%) compared with plants grown with moderate P supply (18–25%). Relatively greater below-ground respiration in low P plants was mainly a result of their increased root:shoot ratio, although specific assimilation rate was reduced significantly at days 21 and 28 after planting. Specific root respiration was reduced over time by low P availability, by up to 40%. This reduction in specific root respiration was due to a reduction in ion uptake respiration and growth respiration, whereas maintenance respiration was increased in low-P plants. Our results support the hypothesis that root C costs are a primary limitation to plant growth in low-P soils.     

Time‐Continuous Phosphorus Flows in the Indian Agri‐Food Sector: Long‐Term Drivers and Management Options

Phosphorus (P) is a major agricultural nutrient and, in its mineable form, a potentially scarce resource. Countries with limited physical access to P should hence develop an effective national P governance. This requires analyses of trends and variations in P flows and stocks over time. Here, we present a long‐term P flow analysis for the Indian agri‐food sector from 1988 to 2011. Major P flows are imports of mineral P, fertilizer application, and uptake of animal fodder. The mineral P import dependency ratio is constant at around 93%. On average, 20% of P inputs to soils are lost through erosion. Key drivers of changes in P flows include population growth, dietary change, and agricultural intensification. To reduce its P fertilizer import dependence, India could, for example, substitute up to 19% of the presently applied mineral P if manure used as a household fuel were recycled, and up to 21% if P was fully recovered from wastewater and household waste. Comparing selected indicators for P use in agriculture with China and the European Union (EU) reveals that there are structural similarities, such as increasing fertilizer application rates and P accumulation in soils, with the first but large differences compared to the latter. The analyses highlight that in contrast to static indicators, the time‐continuous tracking of P flows provides substantial advantages, such as the identification of long‐term trends, drivers, and intervention options for sustainable P management, given that it allows for the interpretation of present indicators in the context of past trends and legacies.     

Towards an Integrated Regional Materials Flow Accounting Model

A key challenge in attaining regional sustainability is to reduce both the direct and the indirect environmental impacts associated with economic and household activity in the region. Knowing what these flows are and how they change over time is a prerequisite for this task.
This article describes the early development of an integrated regional materials flow accounting framework. The framework is based on a hybrid (material and economic) multiregional input-output model. Using readily available economic and materials data sets together with transport and logistics data, the framework attempts to provide estimates of household resource flows for any U.K. region at quite detailed levels of product and material disaggregation. It is also capable of disaggregating these flows according to specific socioeconomic criteria such as income level or occupation of the head of household. Allied to appropriate energy and life-cycle assessment data sets, the model could, in addition, be used to map both direct and indirect environmental impacts associated with these flows.
The benefits of such an approach are likely to be a considerable reduction of uncertainties in (1) our knowledge of the household metabolism, and hence our predictions of regional household waste generation; (2) our assessment of the impacts of contemplated changes in industrial process siting, and thereby on other aspects of local and regional planning; and (3) our understanding of the impacts of changes in the pattern of demand for different materials and products. It is concluded that the use of such an integrated assessment tool has much to contribute to the debate on regional sustainability.     

Energy Budgets of Ectothennic Vertebrates

Ecological energetics provides a unifying focus for ecologicalstudies. Heat energy budget analysis is used to predict thebody temperatures of animals and their microclimatic requirements.Climate space diagrams, transient energybalance models and operativeenvironmental temperature models predict daily and seasonalactivity patterns, predator—prey interactions and energyrequirements of vertebrate ectotherms. Food energy budget (resourceallocation) models are used toinvestigate the life history processesof fish, amphibians and reptiles. Heat energy budgets and foodenergy budgets interact through their effects on body temperatureand metabolism. Coupled heat, food and mass balance equationscan serve as aunified energy budget model and are useful indetermining limits on the energy available to an animal forgrowth and reproduction. Bioenergetic models have been successfullyapplied to some reptiles and fish. Complete energy budgets arenow needed for other ectothermic vertebrates.     

Global Phosphorus Flows and Environmental Impacts from a Consumption Perspective

Human activities have significantly intensified natural phosphorus cycles, which has resulted in some serious environmental problems that modern societies face today. This article attempts to quantify the global phosphorus flows associated with present day mining, farming, animal feeding, and household consumption. Various physical characteristics of the related phosphorus fluxes as well as their environmental impacts in different economies, including the United States, European countries, and China, are examined. Particular attention is given to the global phosphorus budget in cropland and the movement and transformation of phosphorus in soil, because these phosphorus flows, in association with the farming sector, constitute major fluxes that dominate the anthropogenic phosphorus cycle. The results show that the global input of phosphorus to cropland, in both inorganic and organic forms from various sources, cannot compensate for the removal in harvests and in the losses by erosion and runoff. A net loss of phosphorus from the world's cropland is estimated at about 10.5 million metric tons (MMT) phosphorus each year, nearly one half of the phosphorus extracted yearly.