Climate Change Winners: Receding Ice Fields Facilitate Colony Expansion and Altered Dynamics in an Adélie Penguin Metapopulation

There will be winners and losers as climate change alters the habitats of polar organisms. For an Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) colony on Beaufort Island (Beaufort), part of a cluster of colonies in the southern Ross Sea, we report a recent population increase in response to increased nesting habitat as glaciers have receded. Emigration rates of birds banded as chicks on Beaufort to colonies on nearby Ross Island decreased after 2005 as available habitat on Beaufort increased, leading to altered dynamics of the metapopulation. Using aerial photography beginning in 1958 and modern satellite imagery, we measured change in area of available nesting habitat and population size of the Beaufort colony. Population size varied with available habitat, and both increased rapidly since the 1990s. In accord with glacial retreat, summer temperatures at nearby McMurdo Station increased by ∼0.50°C per decade since the mid-1980s. Although the Ross Sea is likely to be the last ocean with an intact ecosystem, the recent retreat of ice fields at Beaufort that resulted in increased breeding habitat exemplifies a process that has been underway in the Ross Sea during the entire Holocene. Furthermore, our results are in line with predictions that major ice shelves and glaciers will retreat rapidly elsewhere in the Antarctic, potentially leading to increased breeding habitat for Adélie penguins. Results further indicated that satellite imagery may be used to estimate large changes in Adélie penguin populations, facilitating our understanding of metapopulation dynamics and environmental factors that influence regional populations.     

Mummified and skeletal southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) from the Victoria Land Coast,Ross Sea,Antarctica

We report on an accumulation of mummified southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) from Inexpressible Island on the Victoria Land Coast (VLC), western Ross Sea, Antarctica. This accumulation is unusual, as elephant seals typically breed and molt on sub‐Antarctic islands further north and do not currently occupy the VLC. Prior ancient DNA analyses revealed that these seals were part of a large, Antarctic breeding population that crashed ~1,000 yr ago. Radiocarbon dates for Inexpressible Island mummies range from 380 to 3,270 yr before present, too old to have been created by Scott's Northern Party in 1912 and varying too widely in age to represent a catastrophic death assemblage. Skeletal measurements reveal that most Inexpressible Island mummies are adult or subadult males. The presence of male elephant seals on Inexpressible Island until several hundred years ago suggests that, at a minimum, it served as a haul‐out site for the large Antarctic population and may have hosted a breeding colony. The conditions that allowed this Antarctic population to use the Ross Sea, the factors spurring its decline, and the implications for the adaptability and sensitivity of the species to environmental change all merit further study.     

Nonlinear effects of winter sea ice on the survival probabilities of Adélie penguins

The population dynamics of Antarctic seabirds are influenced by variations in winter sea ice extent and persistence; however, the type of relationship differs according to the region and the demographic parameter considered. We used annual presence/absence data obtained from 1,138 individually marked birds to study the influence of environmental and individual characteristics on the survival of Adélie penguins Pygoscelis adeliae at Edmonson Point (Ross Sea, Antarctica) between 1994 and 2005. About 25% of 600 birds marked as chicks were reobserved at the natal colony. The capture and survival rates of Adélie penguins at this colony increased with the age of individuals, and five age classes were identified for both parameters. Mean adult survival was 0.85 (SE = 0.01), and no effect of sex on survival was evident. Breeding propensity, as measured by adult capture rates, was close to one, indicating a constant breeding effort through time. Temporal variations in survival were best explained by a quadratic relationship with winter sea ice extent anomalies in the Ross Sea, suggesting that for this region optimal conditions are intermediate between too much and too little winter sea ice. This is likely the result of a balance between suitable wintering habitat and food availability. Survival rates were not correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index. Low adult survival after a season characterized by severe environmental conditions at breeding but favorable conditions during winter suggested an additional mortality mediated by the reproductive effort. Adélie penguins are sensitive indicators of environmental changes in the Antarctic, and the results from this study provide insights into regional responses of this species to variability in winter sea ice habitat.     

Decadal changes in habitat characteristics influence population trajectories of southern elephant seals

Understanding divergent biological responses to climate change is important for predicting ecosystem level consequences. We use species habitat models to predict the winter foraging habitats of female southern elephant seals and investigate how changes in environmental variables within these habitats may be related to observed decreases in the Macquarie Island population. There were three main groups of seals that specialized in different ocean realms (the sub‐Antarctic, the Ross Sea and the Victoria Land Coast). The physical and climate attributes (e.g. wind strength, sea surface height, ocean current strength) varied amongst the realms and also displayed different temporal trends over the last two to four decades. Most notably, sea ice extent increased on average in the Victoria Land realm while it decreased overall in the Ross Sea realm. Using a species distribution model relating mean residence times (time spent in each 50 × 50 km grid cell) to 9 climate and physical co‐variates, we developed spatial predictions of residence time to identify the core regions used by the seals across the Southern Ocean from 120°E to 120°W. Population size at Macquarie Island was negatively correlated with ice concentration within the core habitat of seals using the Victoria Land Coast and the Ross Sea. Sea ice extent and concentration is predicted to continue to change in the Southern Ocean, having unknown consequences for the biota of the region. The proportion of Macquarie Island females (40%) utilizing the relatively stable sub‐Antarctic region, may buffer this population against longer‐term regional changes in habitat quality, but the Macquarie Island population has persistently decreased (?1.45% per annum) over seven decades indicating that environmental changes in the Antarctic are acting on the remaining 60% of the population to impose a long‐term population decline in a top Southern Ocean predator.     

The challenges of detecting subtle population structure and its importance for the conservation of emperor penguins

Understanding the boundaries of breeding populations is of great importance for conservation efforts and estimates of extinction risk for threatened species. However, determining these boundaries can be difficult when population structure is subtle. Emperor penguins are highly reliant on sea ice, and some populations may be in jeopardy as climate change alters sea‐ice extent and quality. An understanding of emperor penguin population structure is therefore urgently needed. Two previous studies have differed in their conclusions, particularly whether the Ross Sea, a major stronghold for the species, is isolated or not. We assessed emperor penguin population structure using 4,596 genome‐wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), characterized in 110 individuals (10–16 per colony) from eight colonies around Antarctica. In contrast to a previous conclusion that emperor penguins are panmictic around the entire continent, we find that emperor penguins comprise at least four metapopulations, and that the Ross Sea is clearly a distinct metapopulation. Using larger sample sizes and a thorough assessment of the limitations of different analytical methods, we have shown that population structure within emperor penguins does exist and argue that its recognition is vital for the effective conservation of the species. We discuss the many difficulties that molecular ecologists and managers face in the detection and interpretation of subtle population structure using large SNP data sets, and argue that subtle structure should be taken into account when determining management strategies for threatened species, until accurate estimates of demographic connectivity among populations can be made.     

Demographic responses to climate change in a threatened Arctic species

The Arctic is undergoing rapid and accelerating change in response to global warming, altering biodiversity patterns, and ecosystem function across the region. For Arctic endemic species, our understanding of the consequences of such change remains limited. Spectacled eiders (Somateria fischeri), a large Arctic sea duck, use remote regions in the Bering Sea, Arctic Russia, and Alaska throughout the annual cycle making it difficult to conduct comprehensive surveys or demographic studies. Listed as Threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, understanding the species response to climate change is critical for effective conservation policy and planning. Here, we developed an integrated population model to describe spectacled eider population dynamics using capture–mark–recapture, breeding population survey, nest survey, and environmental data collected between 1992 and 2014. Our intent was to estimate abundance, population growth, and demographic rates, and quantify how changes in the environment influenced population dynamics. Abundance of spectacled eiders breeding in western Alaska has increased since listing in 1993 and responded more strongly to annual variation in first‐year survival than adult survival or productivity. We found both adult survival and nest success were highest in years following intermediate sea ice conditions during the wintering period, and both demographic rates declined when sea ice conditions were above or below average. In recent years, sea ice extent has reached new record lows and has remained below average throughout the winter for multiple years in a row. Sea ice persistence is expected to further decline in the Bering Sea. Our results indicate spectacled eiders may be vulnerable to climate change and the increasingly variable sea ice conditions throughout their wintering range with potentially deleterious effects on population dynamics. Importantly, we identified that different demographic rates responded similarly to changes in sea ice conditions, emphasizing the need for integrated analyses to understand population dynamics.     

Too much of a good thing: sea ice extent may have forced emperor penguins into refugia during the last glacial maximum

The relationship between population structure and demographic history is critical to understanding microevolution and for predicting the resilience of species to environmental change. Using mitochondrial DNA from extant colonies and radiocarbon‐dated subfossils, we present the first microevolutionary analysis of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) and show their population trends throughout the last glacial maximum (LGM, 19.5–16 kya) and during the subsequent period of warming and sea ice retreat. We found evidence for three mitochondrial clades within emperor penguins, suggesting that they were isolated within three glacial refugia during the LGM. One of these clades has remained largely isolated within the Ross Sea, while the two other clades have intermixed around the coast of Antarctica from Adélie Land to the Weddell Sea. The differentiation of the Ross Sea population has been preserved despite rapid population growth and opportunities for migration. Low effective population sizes during the LGM, followed by a rapid expansion around the beginning of the Holocene, suggest that an optimum set of sea ice conditions exist for emperor penguins, corresponding to available foraging area.     

Limited use of sea ice by the Ross seal (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Ommatophoca rossii</Emphasis>), in Amundsen Sea,Antarctica, using telemetry and remote sensing data

To understand the use and importance of the Antarctic sea ice to the Ross seal (Ommatophoca rossii), four adult females were tagged with Argos satellite transmitters in the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica. The Ross seal is the least studied of the Antarctic seal species and nothing was previously known about their behaviour in the Amundsen Sea. During almost 1 year, their movements, haul out behaviour and time spent at different temperatures were logged. By comparing their movements with daily ice maps, distances to the ice edge were calculated, and seals dependence on sea ice for resting, breeding and moulting was analysed. The tagged seals spent on average 70.8 % (range 66.8–77.8 %) of their time in the water and hauled out mainly during the moult in December–January, and in late October–mid-November during breeding. During the pelagic period, they were on average 837.5 km (range 587–1,282 km) from the ice edge indicating a fully pelagic life during several months. Their pelagic behaviour suggests that Ross seals, although being an ice obligate species, may adapt comparatively easy to climate change involving ice melting and recession and thereby potentially being less sensitive to the reduction of sea ice than other Antarctic seal species. Although nothing is known about their mating behaviour, they appear to be relatively stationary during moulting and breeding, hence requiring a small ice surface. Although previous studies in other parts of Antarctica have found similar results, still many questions remain about this peculiar species.     

An Interpretation of the Growth of the Adelie Penguin Rookery at Cape Royds, 1955-1990

The population dynamics of the Cape Royds rookery were modelled by computer, in order to determine the probable causes of the dramatic increase since 1980 in the numbers of Adelie penguins, Pygoscelis adeliae, breeding in the Ross Sea region, Antarctica. Variations in the extent of sea-ice around the rookery during incubation and chick rearing cannot feasibly explain the population increase and another factor or event must be introduced, which increases chick production per breeding pair and decreases adult mortality. The timing of the event is critical and rules out the cessation of human impacts or the depletion of competing baleen whales as causal factors. The event is seen as most probably the result of a recent warming of the Ross Sea climate.     

An apparent population decrease,or change in distribution,of Weddell seals along the Victoria Land coast

Ground counts during 1959–1968 compared with counts using high resolution (0.6 m²) satellite imagery during 2008–2012 indicated many fewer Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) at two major molting areas in the western Ross Sea: Edisto Inlet‐Moubray Bay, northern Victoria Land, and McMurdo Sound, southern Victoria Land. Breeding seals have largely disappeared from Edisto‐Moubray, though the breeding population in McMurdo Sound appears to have recovered from harvest in the 1960s. The timing of decline, or perhaps spreading (lower numbers of seals in more places), is unknown but appears unrelated to changes in sea ice conditions. We analyzed both historic and satellite‐derived ice data confirming a large expansion of pack ice mostly offshore of the Ross Sea, and not over the continental shelf (main Weddell seal habitat), and a thinning of fast ice along Victoria Land (conceivably beneficial to seals). Timing of fast ice presence and extent in coves and bays along Victoria Land, remains the same. The reduction in numbers is consistent with an altered food web, the reasons for which are complex. In the context of a recent industrial fishery targeting a seal prey species, a large‐scale seal monitoring program is required to increase understanding of seal population changes.     

Integrated modeling predicts shifts in waterbird population dynamics under climate change

Climate change has been identified as one of the most important drivers of wildlife population dynamics. The in‐depth knowledge of the complex relationships between climate and population sizes through density dependent demographic processes is important for understanding and predicting population shifts under climate change, which requires integrated population models (IPMs) that unify the analyses of demography and abundance data. In this study we developed an IPM based on Gaussian approximation to dynamic N‐mixture models for large scale population data. We then analyzed four decades (1972–2013) of mallard Anas platyrhynchos breeding population survey, band‐recovery and climate data covering a large spatial extent from North American prairies through boreal habitat to Alaska. We aimed to test the hypothesis that climate change will cause shifts in population dynamics if climatic effects on demographic parameters that have substantial contribution to population growth vary spatially. More specifically, we examined the spatial variation of climatic effects on density dependent population demography, identified the key demographic parameters that are influential to population growth, and forecasted population responses to climate change. Our results revealed that recruitment, which explained more variance of population growth than survival, was sensitive to the temporal variation of precipitation in the southern portion of the study area but not in the north. Survival, by contrast, was insensitive to climatic variation. We then forecasted a decrease in mallard breeding population density in the south and an increase in the northwestern portion of the study area, indicating potential shifts in population dynamics under future climate change. Our results implied that different strategies need to be considered across regions to conserve waterfowl populations in the face of climate change. Our modelling approach can be adapted for other species and thus has wide application to understanding and predicting population dynamics in the presence of global change.     

Persistent genetic signatures of historic climatic events in an Antarctic octopus

Repeated cycles of glaciation have had major impacts on the distribution of genetic diversity of the Antarctic marine fauna. During glacial periods, ice cover limited the amount of benthic habitat on the continental shelf. Conversely, more habitat and possibly altered seaways were available during interglacials when the ice receded and the sea level was higher. We used microsatellites and partial sequences of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase 1 gene to examine genetic structure in the direct‐developing, endemic Southern Ocean octopod Pareledone turqueti sampled from a broad range of areas that circumvent Antarctica. We find that, unusually for a species with poor dispersal potential, P. turqueti has a circumpolar distribution and is also found off the islands of South Georgia and Shag Rocks. The overriding pattern of spatial genetic structure can be explained by hydrographic (with ocean currents both facilitating and hindering gene flow) and bathymetric features. The Antarctic Peninsula region displays a complex population structure, consistent with its varied topographic and oceanographic influences. Genetic similarities between the Ross and Weddell Seas, however, are interpreted as a persistent historic genetic signature of connectivity during the hypothesized Pleistocene West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapses. A calibrated molecular clock indicates two major lineages within P. turqueti, a continental lineage and a sub‐Antarctic lineage, that diverged in the mid‐Pliocene with no subsequent gene flow. Both lineages survived subsequent major glacial cycles. Our data are indicative of potential refugia at Shag Rocks and South Georgia and also around the Antarctic continent within the Ross Sea, Weddell Sea and off Adélie Land. The mean age of mtDNA diversity within these main continental lineages coincides with Pleistocene glacial cycles.     

The influence of historical climate changes on Southern Ocean marine predator populations: a comparative analysis

The Southern Ocean ecosystem is undergoing rapid physical and biological changes that are likely to have profound implications for higher‐order predators. Here, we compare the long‐term, historical responses of Southern Ocean predators to climate change. We examine palaeoecological evidence for changes in the abundance and distribution of seabirds and marine mammals, and place these into context with palaeoclimate records in order to identify key environmental drivers associated with population changes. Our synthesis revealed two key factors underlying Southern Ocean predator population changes; (i) the availability of ice‐free ground for breeding and (ii) access to productive foraging grounds. The processes of glaciation and sea ice fluctuation were key; the distributions and abundances of elephant seals, snow petrels, gentoo, chinstrap and Adélie penguins all responded strongly to the emergence of new breeding habitat coincident with deglaciation and reductions in sea ice. Access to productive foraging grounds was another limiting factor, with snow petrels, king and emperor penguins all affected by reduced prey availability in the past. Several species were isolated in glacial refugia and there is evidence that refuge populations were supported by polynyas. While the underlying drivers of population change were similar across most Southern Ocean predators, the individual responses of species to environmental change varied because of species specific factors such as dispersal ability and environmental sensitivity. Such interspecific differences are likely to affect the future climate change responses of Southern Ocean marine predators and should be considered in conservation plans. Comparative palaeoecological studies are a valuable source of long‐term data on species’ responses to environmental change that can provide important insights into future climate change responses. This synthesis highlights the importance of protecting productive foraging grounds proximate to breeding locations, as well as the potential role of polynyas as future Southern Ocean refugia.     

Predicting the effects of climate change on population connectivity and genetic diversity of an imperiled freshwater mussel,Cumberlandia monodonta (Bivalvia: Margaritiferidae), in riverine systems

In the face of global climate change, organisms may respond to temperature increases by shifting their ranges poleward or to higher altitudes. However, the direction of range shifts in riverine systems is less clear. Because rivers are dendritic networks, there is only one dispersal route from any given location to another. Thus, range shifts are only possible if branches are connected by suitable habitat, and stream‐dwelling organisms can disperse through these branches. We used Cumberlandia monodonta (Bivalvia: Unionoida: Margaritiferidae) as a model species to investigate the effects of climate change on population connectivity because a majority of contemporary populations are panmictic. We combined ecological niche models (ENMs) with population genetic simulations to investigate the effects of climate change on population connectivity and genetic diversity of C. monodonta. The ENMs were constructed using bioclimatic and landscape data to project shifts in suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. We then used forward‐time simulations to project potential changes in genetic diversity and population connectivity based on these range shifts. ENM results under current conditions indicated long stretches of highly suitable habitat in rivers where C. monodonta persists; populations in the upper Mississippi River remain connected by suitable habitat that does not impede gene flow. Future climate scenarios projected northward and headwater‐ward range contraction and drastic declines in habitat suitability for most extant populations throughout the Mississippi River Basin. Simulations indicated that climate change would greatly reduce genetic diversity and connectivity across populations. Results suggest that a single, large population of C. monodonta will become further fragmented into smaller populations, each of which will be isolated and begin to differentiate genetically. Because C. monodonta is a widely distributed species and purely aquatic, our results suggest that persistence and connectivity of stream‐dwelling organisms will be significantly altered in response to future climate change.     

Penguins from space: faecal stains reveal the location of emperor penguin colonies

Aim  To map and assess the breeding distribution of emperor penguins ( Aptenodytes forsteri ) using remote sensing.
Location  Pan-Antarctic.
Methods  Using Landsat ETM satellite images downloaded from the Landsat Image Mosaic of Antarctica (LIMA), we detect faecal staining of ice by emperor penguins associated with their colony locations. Emperor penguins breed on sea ice, and their colonies exist in situ between May and December each year. Faecal staining at these colony locations shows on Landsat imagery as brown patches, the only staining of this colour on sea ice. This staining can therefore be used as an analogue for colony locations. The whole continental coastline has been analysed, and each possible signal has been identified visually and checked by spectral analysis. In areas where LIMA data are unsuitable, freely available Landsat imagery has been supplemented.
Results  We have identified colony locations of emperor penguins at a total of 38 sites. Of these, 10 are new locations, and six previously known colony locations have been repositioned (by over 10 km) due to poor geographical information in old records. Six colony locations, all from old or unconfirmed records, were not found or have disappeared.
Main conclusions  We present a new pan-Antarctic species distribution of emperor penguins mapped from space. In one synoptic survey we locate extant emperor penguin colonies, a species previously poorly mapped due to its unique breeding habits, and provide a vital geographical resource for future studies of an iconic species believed to be vulnerable to future climate change.     

50,000 years of ice and seals: Impacts of the Last Glacial Maximum on Antarctic fur seals

Ice is one of the most important drivers of population dynamics in polar organisms, influencing the locations, sizes, and connectivity of populations. Antarctic fur seals, Arctocephalus gazella, are particularly interesting in this regard, as they are concomitantly reliant on both ice‐associated prey and ice‐free coastal breeding areas. We reconstructed the history of this species through the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using genomic sequence data from seals across their range. Population size trends and divergence events were investigated using continuous‐time size estimation analysis and divergence time estimation models. The combined results indicated that a panmictic population present prior to the LGM split into two small refugial populations during peak ice extent. Following ice decline, the western refugial population founded colonies at the South Shetlands, South Georgia, and Bouvetøya, while the eastern refugial population founded the colony on Iles Kerguelen. Postglacial population divergence times closely match geological estimates of when these coastal breeding areas became ice free. Given the predictions regarding continued future warming in polar oceans, these responses of Antarctic fur seals to past climate variation suggest it may be worthwhile giving conservation consideration to potential future breeding locations, such as areas further south along the Antarctic Peninsula, in addition to present colony areas.     

Did Late Pleistocene climate change result in parallel genetic structure and demographic bottlenecks in sympatric Central African crocodiles,Mecistops and Osteolaemus?

The mid‐Holocene has had profound demographic impacts on wildlife on the African continent, although there is little known about the impacts on species from Central Africa. Understanding the impacts of climate change on codistributed species can enhance our understanding of ecosystem dynamics and for formulating restoration objectives. We took a multigenome comparative approach to examine the phylogeographic structure of two poorly known Central African crocodile species—Mecistops sp. aff. cataphractus and Osteolaemus tetraspis. In addition, we conducted coalescent‐based demographic reconstructions to test the hypothesis that population decline was driven by climate change since the Last Glacial Maximum, vs. more recent anthropogenic pressures. Using a hierarchical Bayesian model to reconstruct demographic history, we show that both species had dramatic declines (>97%) in effective population size in the 'period following the Last Glacial Maximum 1,500–18,000 YBP. Identification of genetic structuring showed both species have similar regional structure corresponding to major geological features (i.e., hydrologic basin) and that small observed differences between them are best explained by the differences in their ecology and the likely impact that climate change had on their habitat needs. Our results support our hypothesis that climatic effects, presumably on forest and wetland habitat, had a congruent negative impact on both species.     

Sea ice loss increases genetic isolation in a high Arctic ungulate metapopulation

Sea ice loss may have dramatic consequences for population connectivity, extinction–colonization dynamics, and even the persistence of Arctic species subject to climate change. This is of particular concern in face of additional anthropogenic stressors, such as overexploitation. In this study, we assess the population‐genetic implications of diminishing sea ice cover in the endemic, high Arctic Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) by analyzing the interactive effects of landscape barriers and reintroductions (following harvest‐induced extirpations) on their metapopulation genetic structure. We genotyped 411 wild reindeer from 25 sampling sites throughout the entire subspecies' range at 19 microsatellite loci. Bayesian clustering analysis showed a genetic structure composed of eight populations, of which two were admixed. Overall population genetic differentiation was high (mean F_ST = 0.21). Genetic diversity was low (allelic richness [AR] = 2.07–2.58; observed heterozygosity = 0.23–0.43) and declined toward the outer distribution range, where populations showed significant levels of inbreeding. Coalescent estimates of effective population sizes and migration rates revealed strong evolutionary source–sink dynamics with the central population as the main source. The population genetic structure was best explained by a landscape genetics model combining strong isolation by glaciers and open water, and high connectivity by dispersal across winter sea ice. However, the observed patterns of natural isolation were strongly modified by the signature of past harvest‐induced extirpations, subsequent reintroductions, and recent lack of sea ice. These results suggest that past and current anthropogenic drivers of metapopulation dynamics may have interactive effects on large‐scale ecological and evolutionary processes. Continued loss of sea ice as a dispersal corridor within and between island systems is expected to increase the genetic isolation of populations, and thus threaten the evolutionary potential and persistence of Arctic wildlife.     

Sea ice predicts long‐term trends in Adélie penguin population growth,but not annual fluctuations: Results from a range‐wide multiscale analysis

Understanding the scales at which environmental variability affects populations is critical for projecting population dynamics and species distributions in rapidly changing environments. Here we used a multilevel Bayesian analysis of range‐wide survey data for Adélie penguins to characterize multidecadal and annual effects of sea ice on population growth. We found that mean sea ice concentration at breeding colonies (i.e., “prevailing” environmental conditions) had robust nonlinear effects on multidecadal population trends and explained over 85% of the variance in mean population growth rates among sites. In contrast, despite considerable year‐to‐year fluctuations in abundance at most breeding colonies, annual sea ice fluctuations often explained less than 10% of the temporal variance in population growth rates. Our study provides an understanding of the spatially and temporally dynamic environmental factors that define the range limits of Adélie penguins, further establishing this iconic marine predator as a true sea ice obligate and providing a firm basis for projection under scenarios of future climate change. Yet, given the weak effects of annual sea ice relative to the large unexplained variance in year‐to‐year growth rates, the ability to generate useful short‐term forecasts of Adélie penguin breeding abundance will be extremely limited. Our approach provides a powerful framework for linking short‐ and longer term population processes to environmental conditions that can be applied to any species, facilitating a richer understanding of ecological predictability and sensitivity to global change.