The reinfection threshold

Thresholds in transmission are responsible for critical changes in infectious disease epidemiology. The epidemic threshold indicates whether infection invades a totally susceptible population. The reinfection threshold indicates whether self-sustained transmission occurs in a population that has developed a degree of partial immunity to the pathogen (by previous infection or vaccination). In models that combine susceptible and partially immune individuals, the reinfection threshold is technically not a bifurcation of equilibria as correctly pointed out by Breban and Blower. However, we show that a branch of equilibria to a reinfection submodel bifurcates from the disease-free equilibrium as transmission crosses this threshold. Consequently, the full model indicates that levels of infection increase by two orders of magnitude and the effect of mass vaccination becomes negligible as transmission increases across the reinfection threshold.     

Evidence for frequent reinfection with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 of a different subtype

A major premise underlying current human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) vaccine approaches is that preexisting HIV-1-specific immunity will block or reduce infection. However, the recent identification of several cases of HIV-1 reinfection suggests that the specific immune response generated for chronic HIV-1 infection may not be adequate to protect against infection by a second HIV-1 strain. It has been unclear, though, whether these individuals are representative of the global epidemic or are rare cases. Here we show that in a population of high-risk women, HIV-1 reinfection occurs almost as commonly as first infections. The study was designed to detect cases of reinfection by HIV-1 of a different subtype and thus captured cases where there was considerable diversity between the first and second strain. In each case, the second virus emerged approximately 1 year after the first infection, and in two cases, it emerged when viral levels were high, suggesting that a well-established HIV-1 infection may provide little benefit in terms of immunizing against reinfection, at least by more-divergent HIV-1 variants. Our findings indicate an urgent need for studies of larger cohorts to determine the incidence and timing of both intersubtype and intrasubtype reinfection.     

Toxoplasma gondii: Serological recognition of reinfection

Using murine chronic toxoplasmosis as an experimental model, we examined the utility of immunoenzymatic methods in recognizing reinfection in chronically infected individuals. Primary infection with avirulent Toxoplasma gondii DX strain (genotype II) induced strong immunity protecting the mice from mortality after inoculation with LD(100) of virulent BK strain (genotype I) and triggered highly expressed antibody production, within one new isotype detected by comparative immunoblots. The parasites multiplying at the site of reinfection were of BK origin as found by RAPD-PCR. The results revealed that the immunoblot assay seems to be a useful and reliable method for the monitoring of specific antibody profile in chronically infected individuals. In our opinion ELISA combined with immunoblot could enable the recognition of reinfection cases in humans, but earlier our experimental data should be verified in clinical laboratory.     

A spatially stochastic epidemic model with partial immunization shows in mean field approximation the reinfection threshold

Recently, the notion of a reinfection threshold in epidemiological models of only partial immunity has been debated in the literature. We present a rigorous analysis of a model of reinfection which shows a clear threshold behaviour at the parameter point where the reinfection threshold was originally described. Furthermore, we demonstrate that this threshold is the mean field version of a transition in corresponding spatial models of immunization. The reinfection threshold corresponds to the transition between annular growth of an epidemics spreading into a susceptible area leaving recovered behind and compact growth of a susceptible-infected-susceptible region growing into a susceptible area. This transition between annular growth and compact growth was described in the physics literature long before the reinfection threshold debate broke out in the theoretical biology literature.     

A spatially stochastic epidemic model with partial immunization shows in mean field approximation the reinfection threshold

Recently, the notion of a reinfection threshold in epidemiological models of only partial immunity has been debated in the literature. We present a rigorous analysis of a model of reinfection which shows a clear threshold behaviour at the parameter point where the reinfection threshold was originally described. Furthermore, we demonstrate that this threshold is the mean field version of a transition in corresponding spatial models of immunization. The reinfection threshold corresponds to the transition between annular growth of an epidemics spreading into a susceptible area leaving recovered behind and compact growth of a susceptible-infected-susceptible region growing into a susceptible area. This transition between annular growth and compact growth was described in the physics literature long before the reinfection threshold debate broke out in the theoretical biology literature.     

A model for tuberculosis with exogenous reinfection

Following primary tuberculosis (TB) infection, only approximately 10% of individuals develop active T.B. Most people are assumed to mount an effective immune response to the initial infection that limits proliferation of the bacilli and leads to long-lasting partial immunity both to further infection and to reactivation of latent bacilli remaining from the original infection. Infected individuals may develop active TB as a consequence of exogenous reinfection, i.e., acquiring a new infection from another infectious individual. Our results in this paper suggest that exogenous reinfection has a drastic effect on the qualitative dynamics of TB. The incorporation of exogenous reinfection into our TB model allows the possibility of a subcritical bifurcation at the critical value of the basic reproductive number R(0)=1, and hence the existence of multiple endemic equilibria for R(0)<1 and the exogenous reinfection rate larger than a threshold. Our results suggest that reducing R(0) to be smaller than one may not be sufficient to eradicate the disease. An additional reduction in reinfection rate may be required. These results may also partially explain the recently observed resurgence of TB.     

Drug resistance in tuberculosis--a reinfection model

There is increasing recognition that reinfection is an important component of TB transmission. Moreover, it has been shown that partial immunity has significant epidemiological consequences, particularly in what concerns disease prevalence and effectiveness of control measures. We address the problem of drug resistance as a competition between two types of strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis: those that are sensitive to anti-tuberculosis drugs and those that are resistant. Our objective is to characterise the role of reinfection in the transmission of drug-resistant tuberculosis. The long-term behaviour of our model reflects how reinfection modifies the conditions for coexistence of sensitive and resistant strains. This sets the scene for discussing how strain prevalence is affected by different control strategies. It is shown that intervention effectiveness is highly sensitive to the baseline epidemiological setting.     

Reinfection after rubella and congenital polymalformation syndrome

A case is reported of a term newborn with intra uterine growth retardation and numerous malformations such as complex heart disease, abnormalities of distal limbs, cleft palate. Death occurred after two days. The diagnosis of rubella embryopathy was confirmed by the following criteria: a high level of rubella antibodies in mother and newborn (1/1000) an isolation of rubella virus from the infant's urine. Diagnosis of rubella after reinfection was documented by a high level of antibodies in the mother three years before this pregnancy. Other observations reported in literature confirm the extreme rarity of congenital rubella after reinfection.     

Heterogeneity in susceptibility to infection can explain high reinfection rates

Heterogeneity in susceptibility and infectivity is inherent to infectious disease transmission in nature. Here we are concerned with the formulation of mathematical models that capture the essence of heterogeneity while keeping a simple structure suitable of analytical treatment. We explore the consequences of host heterogeneity in the susceptibility to infection for epidemiological models for which immunity conferred by infection is partially protective, known as susceptible-infected-recovered-infected (SIRI) models. We analyze the impact of heterogeneity on disease prevalence and contrast the susceptibility profiles of the subpopulations at risk for primary infection and reinfection. We present a systematic study in the case of two frailty groups.We predict that the average rate of reinfection may be higher than the average rate of primary infection, which may seem paradoxical given that primary infection induces life-long partial protection. Infection generates a selection mechanism whereby fit individuals remain in S and frail individuals are transferred to R. If this effect is strong enough we have a scenario where, on average, the rate of reinfection is higher than the rate of primary infection even though each individual has a risk reduction following primary infection. This mechanism may explain high rates of tuberculosis reinfection recently reported.Finally, the enhanced benefits of vaccination strategies that target the high-risk groups are quantified.     

Susceptibility of experimental animals to reinfection with Clonorchis sinensis

The present study observed the resistance to reinfection with Clonorchis sinensis in various experimental animals including mice, guinea pigs, rabbits, and dogs, as well as rats and hamsters. The resistance rates to reinfection in rats, mice, hamsters, guinea pigs, rabbits, and dogs were 79.7%, 58.0%, -12.6%, 54.8%, 62.6%, and 6.0%, respectively. Worms recovered from reinfected rats and mice were immature, and significantly smaller than those from the primarily infected (P < 0.01), whereas those from other animals were fully matured to adults. These findings indicate that the protective response against reinfection with C. sinensis is prominent in rats and mice, and that they may be a good animal model to investigate the mechanism of resistance to reinfection with C. sinensis.     

Association between Malignant Disease in Children and Maternal Virus Infections

The possibility of an association between virus infections during pregnancy and subsequent malignant disease in the child has been investigated using retrospective data from the Oxford Survey of Childhood Cancers. Such an association appears to exist for influenza, chickenpox, and possibly rubella. For influenza and rubella the estimated risk is small; the data do not permit an estimate to be made directly in the case of chickenpox. It is suggested that there may be a specific association between maternal chickenpox and tumours of the nervous system.It is important to emphasize that, even if the relative risk associated with these viruses is fairly large, the number of cases of childhood cancer and leukaemia actually attributable to them is probably very small.     

The significance of specific IgM antibody in the diagnosis of rubella employing the immunofluorescence technique

The applicability of the immunofluorescence (IF) test to the diagnosis of primary rubella infection was investigated. The test is based on the detection of rubella-specific antibodies in the IgM fraction of immunoglobulins. The results indicate the usefulness of the IF test for the diagnosis of primary rubella infection on a single serum specimen collected at a proper time. The test is also of value in the differentiation of primary infection from reinfection, since in reinfection no rubella-specific antibodies are found in the IgM fraction. The test is also valuable for the detection of fetal infection in utero since the persistence of IgM antibodies in pregnant women is indicative of fetal infection.     

The reinfection threshold promotes variability in tuberculosis epidemiology and vaccine efficacy

Population patterns of infection are determined largely by susceptibility to infection. Infection and vaccination induce an immune response that, typically, reduces susceptibility to subsequent infections. With a general epidemic model, we detect a 'reinfection threshold', above which reinfection is the principal type of transmission and, consequently, infection levels are much higher and vaccination fails. The model is further developed to address human tuberculosis (TB) and the impact of vaccination. The bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) is the only vaccine in current use against TB, and there is no consensus about its usefulness. Estimates of protection range from 0 to 80%, and this variability is aggravated by an association between low vaccine efficacy and high prevalence of the disease. We propose an explanation based on three postulates: (i) the potential for transmission varies between populations, owing to differences in socio-economic and environmental factors; (ii) exposure to mycobacteria induces an immune response that is partially protective against reinfection; and (iii) this protection is not significantly improved by BCG vaccination. These postulates combine to reproduce the observed trends, and this is attributed to a reinfection threshold intrinsic to the transmission dynamics. Finally, we demonstrate how reinfection thresholds can be manipulated by vaccination programmes, suggesting that they have a potentially powerful role in global control.     

On the role of reinfection in the transmission of infectious diseases

We introduce a spatial stochastic model for the spread of tuberculosis. After a primary infection, an individual may become sick (and infectious) through an endogenous reinfection or through an exogenous reinfection. We show that even in the absence of endogenous reinfection an epidemic is possible if the exogenous reinfection parameter is high enough. This is in sharp contrast with what happens for a mean field model corresponding to our spatial stochastic model.     

Development of resistance to reinfection by Clonorchis sinensis in rats

We investigated the induction of resistance to Clonorchis sinensis infection by prior infection in rat and hamster models. Animals were challenged with C. sinensis metacercariae, then treated with praziquantel and reinfected. Worm recovery rate in reinfected animals was used to estimate resistance to reinfection. The determined resistance rates to reinfection in rats and hamsters were 97.7% and 10.3%, respectively. In rats, cure from the primary infection of C. sinensis increased resistant to reinfection, and the greater the worm burden and the longer the duration of primary infection, the higher was the resistance rate. For primary infection doses of 10, 40 and 100 metacercariae per rat, the resistance rates were 87.4%, 93.8% and 98.4%, respectively. The resistance rates in rats after 2 or 8-week primary infection were 78.7% and 95.3%, respectively. All worms recovered from reinfected rats were immature. When cured rats were administered with methylprednisolone, resistance to reinfection became impaired. These findings indicate that rats develop a high degree of resistance to reinfection by C. sinensis after cure. The growths and maturations of reinfected worms were also impaired.     

Epidemics with partial immunity to reinfection

We obtain analytical results about epidemics generated by the partial immunity model of Gomes et al. [3], in which infection confers partial immunity to reinfection. When the demographic process is excluded, the behavior switches from epidemic to endemic as the basic reproduction number R₀ crosses the reinfection threshold . We derive formulas for two quantities characterizing the size of the epidemic below the reinfection threshold: the attack rate A, which is the fraction of the population infected at least once, and the final size Z, which is the average number of infections per individual. We also derive a system of differential equations which can be used to obtain more detailed information, such as the fraction of the population infected n times throughout the epidemic, for every n.     

Relapse or reinfection: Classification of malaria infection using transition likelihoods

In patients with Plasmodium vivax malaria treated with effective blood-stage therapy, the recurrent illness may occur due to relapse from latent liver-stage infection or reinfection from a new mosquito bite. Classification of the recurrent infection as either relapse or reinfection is critical when evaluating the efficacy of an anti-relapse treatment. Although one can use whether a shared genetic variant exists between baseline and recurrence genotypes to classify the outcome, little has been suggested to use both sharing and nonsharing variants to improve the classification accuracy. In this paper, we develop a novel classification criterion that utilizes transition likelihoods to distinguish relapse from reinfection. When tested in extensive simulation experiments with known outcomes, our classifier has superior operating characteristics. A real data set from 78 Cambodian P. vivax malaria patients was analyzed to demonstrate the practical use of our proposed method.     

Long-term follow up of Helicobacter pylori IgG serology after eradication and reinfection rate of H. pylori in South Korea

Background: Serology is widely used for epidemiologic research of Helicobacter pylori . However, there is limited information on the long-term follow up of H. pylori titers after eradication. In addition, it is presumed that the reinfection rate decreases as the H. pylori infection rate decreases. The aim of this study was to investigate the long-term follow up of H. pylori IgG, and to evaluate the reinfection rate of H. pylori in Korea.
Methods: Among 247 patients, who were enrolled during 2003–07, 185 patients with invasive H. pylori test positive received proton pump inhibitor-based triple therapy, and follow-up H. pylori testing, including histology, CLOtest, culture, and serology, were evaluated 2, 10, and 18 months after H. pylori eradication.
Results: The initial H. pylori IgG optical density (OD_450nm), 2.06, gradually decreased to 0.63 (67% reduction) at 18 months after H. pylori eradication. The seroreversion rate was 5, 10, and 45% at 2, 10, and 18 months after H. pylori eradication, respectively. The recrudescence of H. pylori was 3.49%, and the annual reinfection rate was 2.94% per year. H. pylori IgG titers abruptly increased in cases with recrudescence and reinfection, and correlated with the results of the invasive H. pylori tests.
Conclusion: The results of this study showed that H. pylori IgG serology could be used for the determination of reinfection of H. pylori, but not for the diagnosis of H. pylori eradication. The reinfection rate of H. pylori , in Korea, was found to be very low, 2.94% per year.     

Successful reinfection of chronically infected mice by a different Toxoplasma gondii genotype

It is generally assumed that primary infection by Toxoplasma gondii protects from reinfection. A recent study using a murine model has questioned this dogma using indirect procedures to detect the reinfecting strain. We have reinvestigated this issue using a transfected strain of T. gondii (Prugniaud beta galactosidase: Pru beta gal) which expresses Escherichia coli beta-galactosidase. Detection of enzyme activity on fixed parasites allows a direct distinction between transfected and untransfected strains. We have found that in OF1 mice primary infection with the 76 K strain of T. gondii fully protects mice against tissue cyst production upon reinfection with the Pru beta gal T. gondii strain whereas primary infection with the Pru beta gal T. gondii strain does not impair tissue cyst formation upon reinfection with the Ned strain of T. gondii, which belongs to another T. gondii genotype. These results suggest that the immune protection conferred by one strain of T. gondii can be breached by reinfection with a strain belonging to another genotype; which can have significant consequences in human or veterinary medicine.     

Infection, reinfection, and vaccination under suboptimal immune protection: epidemiological perspectives

The SIR (susceptible-infectious-resistant) and SIS (susceptible-infectious-susceptible) frameworks for infectious disease have been extensively studied and successfully applied. They implicitly assume the upper and lower limits of the range of possibilities for host immune response. However, the majority of infections do not fall into either of these extreme categories. We combine two general avenues that straddle this range: temporary immune protection (immunity wanes over time since infection), and partial immune protection (immunity is not fully protective but reduces the risk of reinfection). We present a systematic analysis of the dynamics and equilibrium properties of these models in comparison to SIR and SIS, and analyse the outcome of vaccination programmes. We describe how the waning of immunity shortens inter-epidemic periods, and poses major difficulties to disease eradication. We identify a "reinfection threshold" in transmission when partial immunity is included. Below the reinfection threshold primary infection dominates, levels of infection are low, and vaccination is highly effective (approximately an SIR model). Above the reinfection threshold reinfection dominates, levels of infection are high, and vaccination fails to protect (approximately an SIS situation). This association between high prevalence of infection and vaccine failure emphasizes the problems of controlling recurrent infections in high-burden regions. However, vaccines that induce a better protection than natural infection have the potential to increase the reinfection threshold, and therefore constitute interventions with a surprisingly high capacity to reduce infection where reduction is most needed.