Life-History and Spatial Determinants of Somatic Growth Dynamics in Komodo Dragon Populations

Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world’s largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species.     

Density‐dependent survival and recruitment in a long‐distance Palaearctic migrant,the Sand Martin Riparia riparia

Long‐term studies can provide powerful insights into the relative importance of different demographic and environmental factors determining avian population dynamics. Here we use 23 years of capture–mark–recapture data (1981–2003) to estimate recruitment and survival rates for a Sand Martin Riparia riparia population in Cheshire, NW England. Inter‐annual variation in recruitment and adult survival was positively related to rainfall in the sub‐Saharan wintering grounds, but unrelated to weather conditions on the breeding grounds. After allowing for the effects of African rainfall, both demographic rates were negatively density‐dependent: adult survival was related to the size of the western European Sand Martin population (probably reflecting competition for resources in the shared wintering grounds) while recruitment was related to the size of the local study population in Cheshire (potentially reflecting competition for nesting sites or food). Local population size was more sensitive to variation in adult survival than to variation in recruitment, and an increase in population size after 1995 was driven mainly by the impact of more favourable conditions in the African wintering grounds on survival rates of adults. Overwinter survival in this long‐distance Palaearctic migrant is determined partly by the amount of suitable wetland foraging habitat in the sub‐Saharan wintering grounds (which is limited by the extent of summer rainfall) and partly by the number of birds exploiting that habitat.     

Genetic structure and gene flow among Komodo dragon populations inferredby microsatellite loci analysis

A general concern for the conservation of endangered species is the maintenance of genetic variation within populations, particularly when they become isolated and reduced in size. Estimates of gene flow and effective population size are therefore important for any conservation initiative directed to the long-term persistence of a species in its natural habitat. In the present study, 10 microsatellite loci were used to assess the level of genetic variability among populations of the Komodo dragon Varanus komodoensis. Effective population size was calculated and gene flow estimates were compared with palaeogeographic data in order to assess the degree of vulnerability of four island populations. Rinca and Flores, currently separated by an isthmus of about 200 m, retained a high level of genetic diversity and showed a high degree of genetic similarity, with gene flow values close to one migrant per generation. The island of Komodo showed by far the highest levels of genetic divergence, and its allelic distinctiveness was considered of great importance in the maintenance of genetic variability within the species. A lack of distinct alleles and low levels of gene flow and genetic variability were found for the small population of Gili Motang island, which was identified as vulnerable to stochastic threats. Our results are potentially important for both the short- and long-term management of the Komodo dragon, and are critical in view of future re-introduction or augmentation in areas where the species is now extinct or depleted.     

Heterozygosity–fitness correlations in a wild mammal population: accounting for parental and environmental effects

HFCs (heterozygosity–fitness correlations) measure the direct relationship between an individual's genetic diversity and fitness. The effects of parental heterozygosity and the environment on HFCs are currently under‐researched. We investigated these in a high‐density U.K. population of European badgers (Meles meles), using a multimodel capture–mark–recapture framework and 35 microsatellite loci. We detected interannual variation in first‐year, but not adult, survival probability. Adult females had higher annual survival probabilities than adult males. Cubs with more heterozygous fathers had higher first‐year survival, but only in wetter summers; there was no relationship with individual or maternal heterozygosity. Moist soil conditions enhance badger food supply (earthworms), improving survival. In dryer years, higher indiscriminate mortality rates appear to mask differential heterozygosity‐related survival effects. This paternal interaction was significant in the most supported model; however, the model‐averaged estimate had a relative importance of 0.50 and overlapped zero slightly. First‐year survival probabilities were not correlated with the inbreeding coefficient (f); however, small sample sizes limited the power to detect inbreeding depression. Correlations between individual heterozygosity and inbreeding were weak, in line with published meta‐analyses showing that HFCs tend to be weak. We found support for general rather than local heterozygosity effects on first‐year survival probability, and g2 indicated that our markers had power to detect inbreeding. We emphasize the importance of assessing how environmental stressors can influence the magnitude and direction of HFCs and of considering how parental genetic diversity can affect fitness‐related traits, which could play an important role in the evolution of mate choice.     

Apparent survival and return rate of breeders in the southern temperate White‐rumped Swallow Tachycineta leucorrhoa

Life‐histories and demographic parameters of southern temperate bird species have been little studied. We estimated return rates between years and sexes, and adult apparent survival and recapture probabilities with mark–recapture data on White‐rumped Swallows and found a lower return rate of unsuccessful females. There was little support for influences of sex or year on survival rates. The estimates were equivalent to the lowest value reported for a northern congener, in contrast to the prediction of geographical variation under life‐history theory.     

Population Dynamics of the Andean Lizard Anolis heterodermus: Fast‐slow Demographic Strategies in Fragmented Scrubland Landscapes

Habitat fragmentation and loss affect population stability and demographic processes, increasing the extinction risk of species. We studied Anolis heterodermus populations inhabiting large and small Andean scrubland patches in three fragmented landscapes in the Sabana de Bogotá (Colombia) to determine the effect of habitat fragmentation and loss on population dynamics. We used the capture‐mark‐recapture method and multistate models to estimate vital rates for each population. We estimated growth population rate and the most important processes that affect λ by elasticity analysis of vital rates. We tested the effects of habitat fragmentation and loss on vital rates of lizard populations. All six isolated populations showed a positive or an equilibrium growth rate (λ = 1), and the most important demographic process affecting λ was the growth to first reproduction. Populations from landscapes with less scrubland natural cover showed higher stasis of young adults. Populations in highly fragmented landscapes showed highest juvenile survival and growth population rates. Independent of the landscape's habitat configuration and connectivity, populations from larger scrubland patches showed low adult survivorship, but high transition rates. Populations varied from a slow strategy with low growth and delayed maturation in smaller patches to a fast strategy with high growth and early maturation in large patches. This variation was congruent with the fast‐slow continuum hypothesis and has serious implications for Andean lizard conservation and management strategies. We suggest that more stable lizard populations will be maintained if different management strategies are adopted according to patch area and habitat structure.     

Geographic variation and environmental correlates of apparent survival rates in adult tree swallows Tachycineta bicolor

Determining demographic rates in wild animal populations and understanding why rates vary are important challenges in population ecology and conservation. Whereas reproductive success is reported frequently for many songbird species, there are relatively few corresponding estimates of annual survival for widespread populations of the same migratory species. We incorporated mark–recapture data into Cormack–Jolly–Seber models to estimate annual apparent survival and recapture rates of adult male and female tree swallows Tachycineta bicolor in eight local breeding populations across North America for periods of 7–33 yr. We found strong site‐specific and annual variation in apparent survival rates of adult swallows, and evidence of higher survival or site fidelity among males than females. There were no strong associations between putative overwintering region and survival. Strength and patterns of winter climate‐apparent survival relationships varied across four sites monitored for >15 yr; at one site, spring pond conditions, local spring precipitation and, to a lesser extent, winter North Atlantic Oscillation Index were credible predictors of annual apparent survival. Further work is needed to evaluate how survival is related to environmental conditions throughout the annual cycle and how these factors affect population dynamics of swallows and related species of conservation concern.     

Climate change and annual survival in a temperate passerine: partitioning seasonal effects and predicting future patterns

Predicting climate change impacts on population size requires detailed understanding of how climate influences key demographic rates, such as survival. This knowledge is frequently unavailable, even in well‐studied taxa such as birds. In temperate regions, most research into climatic effects on annual survival in resident passerines has focussed on winter temperature. Few studies have investigated potential precipitation effects and most assume little impact of breeding season weather. We use a 19‐year capture–mark–recapture study to provide a rare empirical analysis of how variation in temperature and precipitation throughout the entire year influences adult annual survival in a temperate passerine, the long‐tailed tit Aegithalos caudatus. We use model averaging to predict longer‐term historical survival rates, and future survival until the year 2100. Our model explains 73% of the interannual variation in survival rates. In contrast to current theory, we find a strong precipitation effect and no effect of variation in winter weather on adult annual survival, which is correlated most strongly to breeding season (spring) weather. Warm springs and autumns increase annual survival, but wet springs reduce survival and alter the form of the relationship between spring temperature and annual survival. There is little evidence for density dependence across the observed variation in population size. Using our model to estimate historical survival rates indicates that recent spring warming has led to an upward trend in survival rates, which has probably contributed to the observed long‐term increase in the UK long‐tailed tit population. Future climate change is predicted to further increase survival, under a broad range of carbon emissions scenarios and probabilistic climate change outcomes, even if precipitation increases substantially. We demonstrate the importance of considering weather over the entire annual cycle, and of considering precipitation and temperature in combination, in order to develop robust predictive models of demographic responses to climate change. Synthesis Prediction of climate change impacts demands understanding of how climate influences key demographic rates. In our 19‐year mark‐recapture study of long‐tailed tits Aegithalos caudatus, weather explained 73% of the inter‐annual variation in adult survival; warm springs and autumns increased survival, wet springs reduced survival, but winter weather had little effect. Robust predictions thus require consideration of the entire annual cycle and should not focus solely on temperature. Unexpectedly, survival appeared not to be strongly density‐dependent, so we use historical climate data to infer that recent climate change has enhanced survival over the four decades in which the UK long‐tailed tit population has more than doubled. Furthermore, survival rates in this species are predicted to further increase under a wide range of future climate scenarios.     

Maximum body size among insular Komodo dragon populations covaries with large prey density

This study documents variation in maximum body size of Komodo dragons ( Varanus komodoensis ) among the four extant island populations in Komodo National Park and compares an indirect measure of deer density, the major prey item for large dragons, to differences in maximum body size among islands. The largest 15% of dragons from the large islands of Komodo and Rinca were significantly longer and heavier than the largest 15% of dragons on the small islands of Gili Motang and Nusa Kode. There was a 33% difference in snout vent length (SVL) between dragons found on Komodo and those found on Gili Motang, with mass varying by more than four-fold. Density of deer pellet groups between islands ranged from 5.86±0.75 groups per transect on Gili Motang to 20.73±1.02 groups per transect on Komodo Island. Maximal dragon SVL and mass was highly positively correlated with this index of deer density. Low prey density on the two small islands could constrain body size via energetic constraints. At present we can not deduce if insular body size variation has arisen through genotypic or phenotypic mechanisms.     

Patterns and processes in shorebird survival rates: a global review

Changes in demographic rates underpin changes in population size, and understanding demographic rates can greatly aid the design and development of strategies to maintain populations in the face of environmental changes. However, acquiring estimates of demographic parameters at relevant spatial scales is difficult. Measures of annual survival rates can be particularly challenging to obtain because large‐scale, long‐term tracking of individuals is difficult and the resulting data contain many inherent biases. In recent years, advances in both tracking and analytical techniques have meant that, for some taxonomic groups, sufficient numbers of survival estimates are available to allow variation within and among species to be explored. Here we review published estimates of annual adult survival rates in shorebird species across the globe, and construct models to explore the phylogenetic, geographical, seasonal and sex‐based variation in survival rates. Models of 295 survival estimates from 56 species show that survival rates calculated from recoveries of dead individuals or from return rates of marked individuals are significantly lower than estimates from mark–recapture models. Survival rates also vary across flyways, largely as a consequence of differences in the genera that have been studied and the analytical methods used, with published estimates from the Americas and from smaller shorebirds (Actitis, Calidris and Charadrius spp.) tending to be underestimated. By incorporating the analytical method used to generate each estimate within a mixed model framework, we provide method‐corrected species‐specific and genus‐specific adult annual survival estimates for 52 species of 15 genera.     

Survival estimates of bird species across altered habitats in the tropical Andes

The probability of long‐term persistence of a population is strongly determined by adult survival rates, but estimates of survival are currently lacking for most species of birds in the tropical Andes, a global biodiversity hotspot. We calculated apparent survival rates of birds in the Ecuadorian tropical Andes using a moderately long‐term (11 yr) capture–recapture dataset from three habitats that varied in how much they had been modified by human activities (native forest, introduced forest, and shrubs). We fit mark–recapture models for 28 species with habitat as a covariable. For all species, recapture rates between sampling sessions were low and varied from 0.04 for Rainbow Starfrontlets (Coeligena iris) to 0.41 for Stripe‐headed Brushfinches (Arremon assimilis) when averaged across all occupied habitats. Annual survival rates varied from 0.07 for Black‐crested Warblers (Margarornis squamiger) to 0.75 for Violet‐throated Metaltails (Metallura baroni). We found no significant differences in survival rates either among habitats or species grouped by habitat specialization. Because we found similar survival rates in native forest and human‐modified habitats, our results support those of recent studies concerning the potential value of secondary habitats for the conservation of some species of birds in the tropics. However, our conclusions are tempered by the uncertainty around the estimates of survival rates. Despite the relatively long‐term nature of our study, obtaining survival estimates for bird species in this region was challenging, and either more years of study or modification of field protocols may be needed to obtain more precise survival estimates.     

Climate and density influence annual survival and movement in a migratory songbird

Assessing the drivers of survival across the annual cycle is important for understanding when and how population limitation occurs in migratory animals. Density‐dependent population regulation can occur during breeding and nonbreeding periods, and large‐scale climate cycles can also affect survival throughout the annual cycle via their effects on local weather and vegetation productivity. Most studies of survival use mark–recapture techniques to estimate apparent survival, but true survival rates remain obscured due to unknown rates of permanent emigration. This is especially problematic when assessing annual survival of migratory birds, whose movement between breeding attempts, or breeding dispersal, can be substantial. We used a multistate approach to examine drivers of annual survival and one component of breeding dispersal (habitat‐specific movements) in a population of American redstarts (Setophaga ruticilla) over 11 years in two adjacent habitat types. Annual survival displayed a curvilinear relation to the Southern Oscillation Index, with lower survival during La Niña and El Niño conditions. Although redstart density had no impact on survival, habitat‐specific density influenced local movements between habitat types, with redstarts being less likely to disperse from their previous year's breeding habitat as density within that habitat increased. This finding was strongest in males and may be explained by conspecific attraction influencing settlement decisions. Survival was lowest in young males, but movement was highest in this group, indicating that apparent survival rates were likely biased low due to permanent emigration. Our findings demonstrate the utility of examining breeding dispersal in mark–recapture studies and complement recent work using spatially explicit models of dispersal probability to obtain greater accuracy in survival estimates.     

Who are we sampling? Apparent survival differs between methods in a secretive species

Survival is a fundamental parameter in population dynamics with increasing importance in the management and conservation strategies of wildlife populations. Survival probability in vertebrates is usually estimated by live‐encounter data obtained by means of physical mark–capture–recapture protocols. Non‐invasive acoustic marking relying on individual‐specific features of signals has been alternatively applied as a marking technique, especially in secretive species. Nevertheless, to date no research has compared survival rate estimates obtained by acoustic and physical marking. We estimated half‐yearly and annual survival and recapture rates of a secretive and threatened passerine, the Dupont's lark Chersophilus duponti, using two separate live‐encounter data sets of males collected simultaneously by physical and acoustic marking in the same study area. The separate analysis of both methods led to different model structures, since transient individuals had to be accounted for in the acoustic marking but not in the physical marking data set. Furthermore, while reencounter probabilities did not differ between methods, survival estimates employing physical marking were lower than those obtained acoustically, especially between the postbreeding and the breeding period when the apparent survival of colour‐banded birds was twice as low as for acoustic marking. The combination of marking methods suggested the existence of different subsets of individuals differentially sampled within the population: whereas colour‐banded males seemed to represent the territorial fraction of the population, both resident and floater individuals were probably detected by acoustic marking. Using traditional mark–recapture methods exclusively could have misled our estimates of survival rates, potentially affecting prospective predictions of population dynamics. Acoustic marking has been poorly applied in mark–recapture studies, but might be a powerful complement to obtain accurate estimates of fundamental demographic parameters such as survival and dispersal.     

Decline in abundance and apparent survival rates of fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence

Estimates of abundance and survivorship provide quantifiable measures to monitor populations and to define and understand their conservation status. This study investigated changes in abundance and survival rates of fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence in the context of anthropogenic pressures and changing environmental conditions. A long‐term data set, consisting of 35 years of photo‐identification surveys and comprising more than 5,000 identifications of 507 individuals, formed the basis of this mark–recapture study. Based on model selection using corrected Akaike Information Criterion, the most parsimonious Cormack–Jolly–Seber model included a linear temporal trend in noncalf apparent survival rates with a sharp decline in the last 5 years of the study and a median survival rate of 0.946 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.910–0.967). To account for capture heterogeneity due to divergent patterns of site fidelity, agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis was employed to categorize individuals based on their annual and survey site fidelity indices. However, the negative trend in survivorship remained and was corroborated by a significant decline in the estimated super‐population size from 335 (95% CI 321–348) individuals in 2004–2010 to 291 (95% CI 270–312) individuals in 2010–2016. Concurrently, a negative trend was estimated in recruitment to the population, supported by a sharp decrease in the number of observed calves. Ship strikes and changes in prey availability are potential drivers of the observed decline in fin whale abundance. The combination of clustering methods with mark–recapture represents a flexible way to investigate the effects of site fidelity on demographic variables and is broadly applicable to other individual‐based studies.     

Effects of human activities on Komodo dragons in Komodo National Park

Understanding how threatened wildlife can coexist with humans over the long term is a central issue in conservation and wildlife management. Komodo National Park in Eastern Indonesia, harbors the largest extant populations of the endemic Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). Consistent with global trends, this species is expected to be increasingly exposed to human activities and in particular growing ecotourism activities. Here we comprehensively evaluated how human activities affected individual and population level attributes of Komodo dragons. We compared Komodo dragons phenotypic (behaviour, body size, and body condition) and demographic (age structure, sex ratio, survival, and density) responses to variation in human activities across national park. Komodo dragons were found to exhibit pronounced responses to high human activity level relative to sites with low and negligible human activities. Komodo dragons exposed to ecotourism exhibited significantly less wariness, larger body mass, better body condition, and higher survival. These results are entirely consistent with ecotourism activities that provided Komodo dragons with long-term and substantial nutritional subsidies as a consequence of feeding and human food refuse. However, we also noted the potential negative consequences of altered behaviour and adult-biased populations in ecotourism areas which may influence demographic processes through intraspecific competition or predation. To address this issue, we recommend that three management strategies to be implemented in future include: (1) removal of human-mediated nutritional subsidies, (2) alternative ecotourism, and (3) spatial regulation of ecotourism. Furthermore, we advocate the development of approaches to achieve a socio–ecological sustainability that benefits both people and wildlife conservation.     

Age‐related variation and temporal patterns in the survival of a long‐lived scavenger

Although senescence has been described for various fitness components in a wide range of animal species, few studies have studied senescence in long‐lived species, and little is known about its interactions with varying environmental conditions. Using a 32 year capture–mark–recapture dataset on the griffon vulture Gyps fulvus, we examined the demographic patterns of actuarial senescence and the patterns of year‐to‐year variation in survival rates. We found a significant, surprisingly late, decrease of annual survival probabilities from the age of 28 years onward and divided individual lifetimes into to three categories (juvenile, mid‐age and senescent birds). In agreement with the environmental canalization hypothesis, our analyses uncovered 1) higher temporal variation of annual survival probabilities in both the juvenile and senescent age classes compared to the mid‐age class and 2) low sensitivity of the population growth rate to the survival of both the juvenile and senescent age classes. Our results further suggested that the temporal variation in the survival of senescent birds might be related to intra‐annual changes in air temperature amplitudes. Finally, using population dynamics modeling, we revealed contrasting effects of the inclusion of the senescent age class on predicted population growth, depending on how survival rates were modeled. Altogether, our results demonstrate the existence of a class of senescent birds that exhibit distinct demographic properties compared to juvenile and mid‐age classes.     

The inbreeding strategy of a solitary primate,Microcebus murinus

Inbreeding depression may be common in nature, reflecting either the failure of inbreeding avoidance strategies or inbreeding tolerance when avoidance is costly. The combined assessment of inbreeding risk, avoidance and depression is therefore fundamental to evaluate the inbreeding strategy of a population, that is how individuals respond to the risk of inbreeding. Here, we use the demographic and genetic monitoring of 10 generations of wild grey mouse lemurs (Microcebus murinus), small primates from Madagascar with overlapping generations, to examine their inbreeding strategy. Grey mouse lemurs have retained ancestral mammalian traits, including solitary lifestyle, polygynandry and male‐biased dispersal, and may therefore offer a representative example of the inbreeding strategy of solitary mammals. The occurrence of close kin among candidate mates was frequent in young females (~37%, most often the father) and uncommon in young males (~6%) due to male‐biased dispersal. However, close kin consistently represented a tiny fraction of candidate mates (< 1%) across age and sex categories. Mating biases favouring partners with intermediate relatedness were detectable in yearling females and adult males, possibly partly caused by avoidance of daughter–father matings. Finally, inbreeding depression, assessed as the effect of heterozygosity on survival, was undetectable using a capture–mark–recapture study. Overall, these results indicate that sex‐biased dispersal is a primary inbreeding avoidance mechanism at the population level, and mating biases represent an additional strategy that may mitigate residual inbreeding costs at the individual level. Combined, these mechanisms explain the rarity of inbreeding and the lack of detectable inbreeding depression in this large, genetically diverse population.     

Rain,rats and pythons: Climate‐driven population dynamics of predators and prey in tropical Australia

Abstract: All natural populations fluctuate in abundance and age structure through time; understanding why they do so is a critical step towards their effective management and conservation. However, the long‐term data sets needed for such an understanding are rarely available, especially for tropical organisms. A 17‐year capture‐mark–recapture study yielded detailed information on the demography of water pythons (Liasis fuscus) and their main prey, the dusky rat (Rattus colletti), on the Adelaide River flood plain in tropical Australia. The link between annual rainfall patterns and rat demography was highly non‐linear. Rat numbers were low during years with low and high rainfall at the end of the wet season (April). Numbers of both predators and prey fluctuated considerably among years. Annual fluctuations in rat numbers generated a corresponding variation in rates of female python reproduction, python body condition and survival. Although variation in recruitment, survival and prey abundance all had a significant impact on annual fluctuations in python numbers, our analyses suggest that recruitment constituted the main determinant in driving the population dynamics of these large tropical predators. In combination with our other studies on this system, the data show that population dynamics of the water python population is ultimately driven by annual variation in rainfall, mediated via shifts in prey availability. The water pythons and the dusky rats of the Adelaide River flood plain thus demonstrate an unusually clear and direct link between an abiotic factor (rainfall) and predator–prey population dynamics.     

Estimating correlations among demographic parameters in population models

Estimating correlations among demographic parameters is critical to understanding population dynamics and life‐history evolution, where correlations among parameters can inform our understanding of life‐history trade‐offs, result in effective applied conservation actions, and shed light on evolutionary ecology. The most common approaches rely on the multivariate normal distribution, and its conjugate inverse Wishart prior distribution. However, the inverse Wishart prior for the covariance matrix of multivariate normal distributions has a strong influence on posterior distributions. As an alternative to the inverse Wishart distribution, we individually parameterize the covariance matrix of a multivariate normal distribution to accurately estimate variances (σ²) of, and process correlations (ρ) between, demographic parameters. We evaluate this approach using simulated capture–mark–recapture data. We then use this method to examine process correlations between adult and juvenile survival of black brent geese marked on the Yukon–Kuskokwim River Delta, Alaska (1988–2014). Our parameterization consistently outperformed the conjugate inverse Wishart prior for simulated data, where the means of posterior distributions estimated using an inverse Wishart prior were substantially different from the values used to simulate the data. Brent adult and juvenile annual apparent survival rates were strongly positively correlated (ρ = 0.563, 95% CRI 0.181–0.823), suggesting that habitat conditions have significant effects on both adult and juvenile survival. We provide robust simulation tools, and our methods can readily be expanded for use in other capture–recapture or capture‐recovery frameworks. Further, our work reveals limits on the utility of these approaches when study duration or sample sizes are small.     

Dispersal and gene flow in the rare, parasitic Large Blue butterfly Maculinea arion

Dispersal is crucial for gene flow and often determines the long‐term stability of meta‐populations, particularly in rare species with specialized life cycles. Such species are often foci of conservation efforts because they suffer disproportionally from degradation and fragmentation of their habitat. However, detailed knowledge of effective gene flow through dispersal is often missing, so that conservation strategies have to be based on mark–recapture observations that are suspected to be poor predictors of long‐distance dispersal. These constraints have been especially severe in the study of butterfly populations, where microsatellite markers have been difficult to develop. We used eight microsatellite markers to analyse genetic population structure of the Large Blue butterfly Maculinea arion in Sweden. During recent decades, this species has become an icon of insect conservation after massive decline throughout Europe and extinction in Britain followed by reintroduction of a seed population from the Swedish island of Öland. We find that populations are highly structured genetically, but that gene flow occurs over distances 15 times longer than the maximum distance recorded from mark–recapture studies, which can only be explained by maximum dispersal distances at least twice as large as previously accepted. However, we also find evidence that gaps between sites with suitable habitat exceeding ～20 km induce genetic erosion that can be detected from bottleneck analyses. Although further work is needed, our results suggest that M. arion can maintain fully functional metapopulations when they consist of optimal habitat patches that are no further apart than ～10 km.