荒漠草原脉动性降水格局及其时空变化特征——以达尔罕茂明安联合旗为例

全球变化背景下,荒漠草原降水格局受到不同程度扰动,识别荒漠草原变化环境下脉动性降水格局及其时空变化特征具有重要生态学和水文学意义。利用达尔罕茂明安联合旗位于不同雨量带的3个气象站1960—2013年日降水数据,分析荒漠草原地区降水格局及其时空变化特征。研究表明,研究区0—5 mm、5—10 mm和大于10mm降水事件及降水量所占的比例分别为77%—80.9%、11.5%—12.2%、7.6%—10.9%和25.2%—32.2%、21.9%—25.4%、42.4%—52.9%。不同等级降水事件日均降水量分别为1.2—1.3 mm/d、7.0—7.1 mm/d、17.8—19.2 mm/d。研究区降水量较降水日数具有更强的时空变异性,全年和生长季降水日数和降水量主周期在2.84—4.5a左右。研究区不同雨量带不同降水等级降水日数和降水量普遍呈增加趋势,尤以0—5mm小降水事件的增加为主。     

1956-2009年内蒙古苏尼特左旗荒漠草原的降水格局

弄清全球变化背景下不同地区降水格局的变化对科学理解气候变化及其影响具有重要意义。苏尼特左旗荒漠草原是温带干旱半干旱地区的典型荒漠草原,对气候变化,特别是降水变化非常敏感。利用1956-2009年的日降水资料探讨了苏尼特左旗荒漠草原降水格局的变化规律,以为揭示气候变化的影响机制提供依据。结果表明,该地区年均降水量为191.9 mm,年际变化剧烈,变异系数达26.63%;年均降水日数为63.8 d,变异系数16.9%。生长季降水占全年的85%,但各月变异系数均>50%;降水日数占全年的63%。年和生长季的各月降水以中等降水量、弱降水日数为主,中等强度以上降水事件较少。近50 a来,年和生长季的降水量、降水日数与各等级降水事件均呈下降趋势,年降水减少的原因在于中等降水事件的减少、生长季降水减少的原因在于弱降水事件的减少。年降水减少将影响草地的土壤水分与植物返青;而生长季降水减少将直接影响草地固碳。气候变化背景下年与生长季降水的减少将进一步加剧该地区干旱程度并影响植物的生长发育,从而直接威胁到草地畜牧业的发展。     

内蒙古半干旱草原土壤水分对降水格局变化的响应

在全球气候变化背景下, 未来我国北方半干旱地区的降水格局将呈现出季节与年际间降水波动增强和极端降水事件增加的趋势。水分是半干旱草原的主要限制因子, 降水格局变化导致的土壤水分状况的改变必然对生态系统的结构和功能产生显著的影响。该研究选取内蒙古多伦和锡林浩特两个典型半干旱草原群落, 通过分析2006-2013年的降水和多层次土壤(0-10 cm, 10 cm, 20 cm, 30 cm和50 cm)含水量连续观测数据, 研究降水格局变化对土壤水分状况及其垂直分布的影响, 特别是土壤水分对降水事件的脉冲响应过程。结果表明: 两个站点的土壤含水量均呈现显著的季节及年际间波动, 其中土壤表层 0-10 cm水分波动更剧烈。锡林浩特50 cm处土壤含水量波动较大, 主要由于春季融雪的影响。年际间多伦和锡林浩特生长季土壤表层0-10 cm土壤含水量与降水量存在显著的正相关关系, 下层(10-50 cm)土壤含水量与降水量相关性不显著。研究发现小至2 mm的降水事件就能够引起两个站点表层0-10 cm土壤含水量的升高, 即该地区有效降水为日降水量> 2 mm。表层0-10 cm土壤含水量对独立降水事件的脉冲响应可通过指数方程很好地拟合。降水事件的大小决定了降水后表层0-10 cm土壤含水量的最大增量和持续时间, 同时这个脉冲响应过程还受到降水前土壤含水量的影响, 但该过程中并未发现植被因子(叶面积指数)的显著影响。降水后水分下渗深度及该深度的土壤含水量增量主要由降水事件的大小主导, 同时受到降水前土壤含水量的影响。在多伦和锡林浩特, 平均每增加1 mm降水, 下渗深度分别增加1.06和0.79 cm。由此作者认为, 在内蒙古半干旱草原, 降水事件大小和降水前土壤干湿状况是影响土壤水分对降水响应的主要因素, 而植被因子的影响较小。     

2000—2015年青藏高原草地归一化植被指数对降水变化的响应

降水变化是造成青藏高原草地植被生长年际变异的重要因素,降水量、分配方式及发生时间是降水变化的重要特征.利用2000—2015年青藏高原及附近区域145个气象站点的降水资料,以年降水量表征降水整体状况,以改进的降水集度(PCI)表征年内降水的分配状况,以定义的降水重心(PC)表征降水的集中时期,分析青藏高原降水变化的时空特征;并进一步以归一化植被指数最大值(NDVI_max)表征植被生长状况,探讨了青藏高原草地对降水年际变化的响应.结果表明: 青藏高原年降水量和PCI存在明显的梯度特征,PC在西藏南部形成中心.青藏高原灌丛草地NDVI_max年际变化对PCI变化响应敏感,降水越均匀越有利于NDVI_max的增加,但受到降水量的限制;高寒草甸对降水特征没有表现出显著的相关关系;草原植被NDVI_max的年际变化同时受PCI和PC的控制;高寒荒漠植被NDVI_max的年际变化主要受降水量的控制.在研究降水变化对青藏高原不同类型植被的影响时,除降水量之外,还需进一步考虑降水的分配格局等特征.     

苏南丘陵区毛竹林冠截留降雨分布格局

降雨穿过林冠层时,由于林冠的拦截作用,改变了降雨分布格局。林冠截留是一个复杂的水文过程,受降水特征及林分特性的影响较大。本文以北亚热带苏南丘陵地区人工毛竹林(Phyllostachys edulis)为研究对象,利用2007年度各场次降雨观测数据,分析了降雨量和降雨强度与林冠截留降雨的关系,研究了林冠截留过程的特点。结果表明：（1） 研究期间共观测到102次降水事件,降水总量为1110.8mm,单次最大降雨量为110.0㎜,最小为0.55㎜,事件平均降水量为10.89mm,且绝大部分降雨为低雨强、中雨量级的降雨事件。（2） 研究期间林冠截留总量为171.72mm,占同期降雨总量的15.46%。单次林冠截留量变幅为0.21—4.55mm,截留率变幅为1.3%—100%,且随林外降雨量的递增,林冠截留率呈现递减的变化趋势,二者的关系用幂函数（I0=117.34P-0.9106）拟合效果较好。（3）在林外次降雨量小于5㎜的条件下,事件降雨量占年降雨总量的5.0%,相应的降雨事件频率为9.8%,此时林冠截留量随降雨量的增大而增加,其变幅为0.55—1.9㎜,截留量与降雨量的关系用对数函数（I=0.4931Ln(P) 0.9493）进行拟合效果较好;在单场降雨量大于5㎜时,林冠截留量随各场次降雨量的增加,其变动幅度和频率均大大增强,变化范围在0.21—4.55㎜之间,二者相关性较差。（4）降雨在7—10mm雨量级范围内时,林外降雨量和林冠截留量分别为245.14mm和47.9㎜,占其全年总量的比例均为最大,分别为22.07%和27.9%;各雨量级林冠平均截留量与平均降雨量的关系表现为对数函数关系（R2=0.7287）,而截留率与平均降雨量的关系表现为极显著的幂函数关系（R2=0.9817）,且林冠对降雨的截留作用在雨量级较小时,表现十分显著。（5）全年单场降雨强度小于0.06mm/min时,降雨事件频数为73.53%,降雨量占其总量的57.93%,林冠截留量占其总量的89.34%,降雨事件平均截留率（23.84%）远高于雨强大于0.06mm/min时的降雨事件平均截留率（3.92%）。本研究结果为长江中下游丘陵山区水土保持林和水源涵养林体系建设提供了理论依据。     

降水格局对北方温带草原土壤微食物网结构的影响

全球气候变化背景下, 降水格局发生改变, 呈现降水总量不变, 但降水强度增加、降水频率降低的趋势, 影响了地下生态系统的结构和功能。土壤微食物网作为地下生态系统的重要组成部分, 在驱动生态系统多功能性方面起着重要作用。降水格局的变化能够通过土壤微食物网的改变对生态系统产生影响。然而, 以往研究多关注于降水量的变化对微食物网的影响, 降水格局变化对其影响的研究较少。因此, 本研究在内蒙古温带草原开展连续8年的降水添加控制试验(控制降水总量不变, 降水频率及强度改变), 包括5个降水强度处理(2 mm、5 mm、10 mm、20 mm和40 mm), 通过磷脂脂肪酸法(PLFA)确定微生物含量, 高通量测序法(16S和ITS)确定微生物多样性及群落结构, 线虫形态学鉴定确定线虫群落组成及结构。结果表明在降水总量不变降水强度改变的背景下, 高降水强度(20 mm)促进了北方温带草原真菌含量的增长, 适度降水强度(10 mm)促进了微生物的多样性。而线虫的多度随着降水强度的增加而增大, 中高降水强度下线虫多样性最高。土壤微食物网的变化进一步影响了生态系统多功能性, 主要通过提高真菌生物量、食真菌线虫多度和线虫多样性, 从而提高了生态系统多功能性。     

中国西北部草地植被降水利用效率的时空格局

植被降水利用效率(PUE)是评价干旱、半干旱地区植被生产力对降水量时空动态响应特征的重要指标。利用光能利用率CASA(Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach)模型估算了2001—2010年中国西北七省草地植被净初级生产力(NPP),结合降水量的空间插值数据,分析了近十年草地植被PUE的空间分布、主要植被类型的PUE,及其时空格局的驱动因素。结果表明:(1)2001—2010年西北七省草地植被的平均PUE为0.68 g C m~(-2)mm~(-1)。在温带草地各类型中,PUE的大小顺序为草甸草原灌丛典型草原荒漠草原荒漠,各类型草地PUE之间差异显著;对于高寒草地而言,高寒草原的PUE显著高于高寒草甸;(2)温带草地PUE的空间分布与年降水量的关系呈抛物线形状(R~2=0.65,P0.001),PUE峰值出现在年降水量P=472.9 mm的地区;荒漠地区植被PUE的空间分布与年降水量的关系同样呈抛物线形状(R~2=0.63,P0.001),PUE峰值出现在年降水量P=263.2mm的地区;对于高寒草地而言,年降水量100 mm以下地区植被PUE变异较大,年降水量大于100 mm的地区植被PUE的空间分布随降水量的变化呈抛物线形状(R~2=0.47,P0.001),PUE峰值出现在P=559.2 mm的地区;(3)不同降水量区域,植被PUE的年际波动与气候因子的关系也有较大差别。在年降水量为200—1000 mm的地区,草地PUE的年际波动与年降水量的变化呈正相关;在年降水量高于1050 mm的地区,草地PUE的年际波动与年均温的相关性较强,相关系数最高可达到0.4。     

1961-2010年中国东部林区降水的完整日值序列建立与变化特征

高精度地对各气象站缺测降水资料进行插补,从而获得完整序列的降水资料,对于提高气候变化影响分析的时空精度具有十分重要的意义.本文利用空间相关和逐步回归法,对东部林区月内有单日缺测或不多于7d缺测的降水资料进行插补,最终建立了853个站自1961-2010年完整序列的降水资料.在此基础上,应用趋势分析法,分析了1961-2010年降水量、降水日数和极端降水事件的变化特性.结果表明:1961-2010年,研究区年降水量略呈不显著增加趋势,倾向率为5.58 mm.(10a)-1,年代际变化明显;年降水日数呈显著减少趋势.极端降水日数和极端降水量呈显著上升趋势,倾向率分别为0.12 d·(10a)-1、10.22mm·(10a)-1.尤其是20世纪90年代以后,该区极端降水事件明显偏多偏强,极端降水量对总降水量的比率也呈显著增加趋势.极端降水日数和极端降水量均在1993年发生突变.     

降水变化对内蒙古典型草原地上生物量的影响

降水格局的变化是气候变化影响干旱和半干旱区草原植物群落结构和功能的关键过程。作为植物群落结构和功能的基本组成单位——植物功能群——对气候变化的响应差异明显。有关不同植物功能群如何响应降水格局的研究, 有助于揭示气候变化对干旱与半干旱区生态系统关键功能与过程稳定性的变异机制。该文利用1982-2015年的典型草原群落地上生物量长期动态监测数据及其所对应的气候数据, 系统揭示降水变化对干旱与半干旱区生态系统生产力的影响。主要研究结果如下: 1) 1982-2015年内蒙古典型草原区降水变化特征明显, 主要表现在降水集中度呈显著的降低趋势; 小降水事件(≤5 mm)明显增多。2)降水变化导致群落生物量呈下降趋势。其中, 多年生丛生禾草的生物量呈上升趋势; 一二年生植物、多年生杂类草、多年生根茎禾类草的生物量均呈下降趋势。3)群落生物量与生长季降水量、降水集中度呈显著的正相关关系。各功能群中, 多年生杂类草、半灌木和生长季降水量呈显著正相关关系, 灌木与降水集中度呈显著负相关关系。4)群落生物量与各等级降水的频率相关性均不显著, 但与I-II类(0.1-10 mm)降水贡献率显著负相关。各功能群中, 多年生杂类草与I类降水(0.1-5.0 mm)的发生频率和降水贡献率均呈显著的负相关关系, 与VI类降水(20-25 mm)的发生频率和贡献率均呈显著的正相关关系。多年生根茎禾类草和VIII类降水(>35 mm)的发生频率和贡献率均呈显著的正相关关系。说明小降水事件的增加将显著降低群落的地上生物量, 小降水事件对干旱、半干旱区植被生长具有重要的生态学意义。     

北部湾防城河流域水源涵养格局及其对降雨的响应特征

评估南亚热带季风气候影响下流域水源涵养量的时空格局及其对降雨的响应特征,可为揭示不同时间尺度流域降水变化下水源涵养演变规律提供科学依据。本研究以北部湾防城河流域为研究对象,基于水量平衡原理,应用SWAT模型探究水源涵养量的时空格局及其对降水的响应特征。结果表明：防城河流域水源涵养量为1637.4 mm·a^-1,占年均降水量的50.7%。不同子流域的水源涵养变化量的差异明显,其中,森林植被覆盖度高、坡度较陡的子流域水源涵养量大,而其他土地利用类型(如田地、草地)、坡度较缓、人类活动强度大的子流域水源涵养量较低。在月尺度上,水源涵养量和水源涵养变化量均与流域降水呈现相似的变化特征。水源涵养变化量对次降水量的响应呈现两种类型：短期降雨(降雨持续时长≤2 d)与水源涵养变化量呈线性变化,中长期降雨(2 d<降雨持续时长≤10 d)与水源涵养变化量呈非线性曲线变化,且主要受到蒸散发等过程的影响。高频次短持续时间的降水事件相对于长持续时间的降水事件更有利于增加生态系统水源涵养。     

长白山阔叶红松林降雨截留量的估算

林冠截留降雨过程是森林流域水分循环的重要组成部分,以往的研究多为1次或多次降雨量与截留量的关系,很少考虑雨强和树木特征.文中利用林冠截留降雨半经验半理论模型,以雨强和叶面积指数为模型输入,林冠湿润程度为参数,结合Penman-Monteith公式,有效地模拟了长白山阔叶红松林次降雨的截留过程和2004年5～9月的林冠截留总量.结果表明,研究期间的林冠截留总量为39.96 mm,占降雨总量的10.2%,与实测资料吻合.根据模拟结果,探讨了不同时间尺度上截留量与降雨量之间的关系,随着时间尺度的增大,截留量与降雨量的相关关系趋于明显.     

Forest-scale sap flux responses to rainfall in a dryland eucalyptus plantation

Dryland salinity is caused by rising saline water tables, the result of relatively recent landscape-scale clearance of deep-rooted vegetation. One obvious solution to this problem is the reintroduction of deep-rooted vegetation into these landscapes, most likely non-deciduous trees. Ideally, continually-transpiring deep-rooted trees would remove moisture from throughout the soil profile, increasing the capacity of the soil to store water, thus lowering water tables by effectively reducing the number of rainfall events that contribute to groundwater recharge. In this study, we examined how water use by a Eucalyptus sideroxylon A. Cunn. ex Woolls plantation, growing in a salinity-prone landscape, varied in response to rainfall events across four years of sap flux monitoring. Responses of the plantation were observed across multiple seasons, from above average to well below average rainfall. We observed that the plantation forest, while capable of continuous water use during drought, was also quite responsive to rainfall events. During the driest periods, during which shallow soil moisture was reduced to a stable minimum, the forest continued using water at around 1 mm/day. Generally we observed increases in forest water use following only 5 mm of rainfall, in contrast to 20 mm for neighbouring native vegetation. We compared a range of plausible empirical models for describing forest water use responses to rainfall. The best model demonstrated that rainfall size, post-rainfall PET and the interaction between rainfall size and antecedent soil moisture made significant contributions to variation in forest water use across rainfall events. Interestingly, the model showed that all else equal, higher antecedent soil moisture tended to reduce potential increases in forest water use in response to rainfall.     

Implications of biofuel policy‐driven land cover change for rainfall erosivity and soil erosion in the United States

Large‐scale conversion of traditional agricultural cropping systems to biofuel cropping systems is predicted to have significant impact on the hydrologic cycle. Changes in the hydrologic cycle lead to changes in rainfall and its erosive power, and consequently soil erosion that will have onsite impacts on soil quality and crop productivity, and offsite impacts on water quality and quantity. We examine regional change in rainfall erosivity and soil erosion resulting from biofuel policy‐induced land use/land cover (LULC) change. Regional climate is simulated under current and biofuel LULC scenarios for the period 1979–2004 using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model coupled to the NOAH land surface model. The magnitude of change in rainfall erosivity under the biofuel scenario is 1.5–3 times higher than the change in total annual rainfall. Over most of the conterminous United States (~56%), the magnitude of the change in erosivity is between ?2.5% and +2.5%. A decrease in erosivity of magnitude 2.5–10% is predicted over 23% of the area, whereas an increase of the same magnitude is predicted over 14% of the area. Corresponding to the changes in rainfall erosivity and crop cover, a decrease in soil loss is predicted over 60% of the area under the biofuel scenario. In Kansas and Oklahoma, the states in which a large fraction of land area is planted with switchgrass under the biofuel scenario, soil loss is estimated to decrease 12% relative to the baseline. This reduction in soil loss is due more to changes in the crop cover factor than changes in rainfall or rainfall erosivity. This indicates that the changes in LULC, due to future cellulosic biofuel feedstock production, can have significant implications for regional soil and water resources in the United States and we recommend detailed investigation of the trade‐offs between land use and management options.     

Litter yield in shrubs of larrea in the andean piedmont of Mendoza,Argentina

The production of litter was measured for the piedmont communities of Larrea divaricata ssp. dicaricata (1500 m asl) and L. cuneifolia (1130 m asl) near Mendoza, Argentina. Litter was collected in traps randomly distributed in each stand: herbaceous, shrubby and uncovered soil. The monthly average weight of litter was recorded in each stand during one year and discontineously during other two years more.The material was classified as: leaves and fruits of Larrea sp., fruits of Stipa sp. (by its relative abundance), gramineous and non gramineous material. The litter and the soil in each sample were bromatologically analyzed and the N, Ca and P levels also determined.The annual contribution of nutrients was calculated totally and layer by layer. The L. cuneifolia and the L. divaricata thickets produce 4,71 t.ha^-1 year^-2 and 2,02 t.ha^-1.year^-2 of litter respectively, that mean 78,66 kg/ha of N, 4,24 kg/ha of P and 94,2 kg/ha of Ca in the first thicket and 31,14 kg/ha of N, 1,82 kg/ha of P and 34,17 kg/ha of Ca in the second one; in one year of study.

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Zusammenfassung In den Larrea divaricata ssp. divaricata und L. cuneifolia Gebüschen des mendoziner Andenvorlandes (1500 m und 1130 m Meereshöhe) wurde die Streuproduktion untersucht. Die Streu wurde getrennt nach Strauchschit, Krauchschit und nacktem Boden in Fallen gesammelt, die stichprobenartig in den Beständen verteilt waren. Ein Jahr lang wurde in jedem Bestand der monatliche Streuanfall ermittelt, wobei die Bläter und Früchte von Larrea von den Stipa-Früchten zwecks Berechnung der relativen Mengen-, grasartige und nicht grasartige, getrennt wurden. Streu und Boden der Bestän wurden bromatologisch analysiert und die Stockstoff, Kalk und Phosphorgehalte bestimmt Derjärliche Nährstoffeintrag wurde schichtweise und als Gesamtmenge berechnet. Das Larrea cuneifolia Gebüsch erzeuchte järlich 4,71 T/ha und das L. divaricata 2,20 T/ha Streu. Diese enthielt 78,66 kg/ha N, 4,24 kg/ha P und 94,20 T/ha Ca im L. cuneifolia-und 31,14 kg/ha N, 1,82 kg/ha P, 34,17 kg/ha Ca im L. divaricata-Gebüsch.

     

Decomposition along a rainfall gradient in the Judean desert,Israel

Summary The effect of a rainfall gradient, from a semiarid to extremely arid, on decomposition, were studied in the Judean desert, Israel. During the study period, the rainfall gradient obtained ranged from 308 mm to 24.4 mm. There was a annual mass loss of approximately 20% and 16% in the semi-arid and extremely arid regions, respectively. No significant correlation was found between the total rainfall and total mass losses. The data suggest that in an area where the conditions are not suitable for biological activity, the decomposition processes result from abiotic conditions, like temperature and radiation.Dedicated in memory of Prof. M. Evenari     

Testing for density-dependent effects in sequential censuses

Summary In response to Gaston and Lawton (1987), we evaluated the ability of four statistical procedures to detect density dependence. We used data from the same 16 populations as Gaston and Lawton (1987). In each population, density dependence had been previously established with techniques that use more extensive data. The major axis test (Slade 1977) was rarely (3 populations of 16) capable of detecting density dependence. The autocorrelation test (Bulmer 1975) detected density dependence in 5 of 16 species (14 of 59 tests overall). The randomization procedure (Pollard et al. 1987) detected density dependence in 7 of the 16 data sets (10 of 59 tests overall). The simulation procedure (Vickery and Nudds 1984) detected density dependence in 5 of the 16 data sets (11 of 59 tests overall). We suggest that not all annual census data taken from populations subject to density-dependent effects will actually show evidence of such effects. We conclude that Pollard et al. 's (1987) randomization procedure is the best test for detecting density dependence in sequential census data but it is not as powerful as more elaborate techniques (k-factor analysis, experimentation, etc.), nor is it meant to replace more extensive analyses.     

The distribution of Raunkiaer life forms in Israel in relation to the environment

Abstract. The distribution of Raunkiaer life forms along rainfall and temperature gradients was determined for the floras of 27 geomorphological districts in Israel. Phane-rophytes and chamaephytes are relatively strongly represented in districts with very low rainfall, decrease up to 150 mm and 400 mm of mean annual rainfall respectively, and remain more or less constant at higher rainfall figures. Hemicryptophytes andgeophytes increase along the rainfall gradient. Therophytes show an optimum between 200 and 500 mm of rainfall. The distribution of life forms is less clearly correlated with mean annual temperature, though hemicryptophytes and geophytes show a negative correlation with mean annual temperature and with mean annual minimal temperature.     

Long-term variation in the effect of lizards on spider density is linked to rainfall

The objective of this study was to ascertain whether the impact of lizards on spiders varies temporally, and if so, whether this variability is related to rainfall. We compared annual censuses of orb-spider populations on 24 islands with diurnal lizards present, and on 20 islands with diurnal lizards absent, to rainfall over a 10-year period. A strong positive correlation (Pearson r=0.877) was found between mean spider density on nolizard islands and the number of days of rain that occurred 2 months prior to spider censuses; correlation coefficients declined with longer and shorter time periods prior to censuses. Correlation coefficients between mean spider density on lizard islands and rainfall showed a similar pattern but were generally lower than those for no-lizard islands. The strength of the impact of lizards on spiders, measured as the ratio of mean spider density on no-lizard islands to mean spider density on lizard islands, varied considerably and was positively correlated with rainfall; the correlation was highest with number of rain days 6 months prior to spider censuses (r=0.741). Repeated-measures analysis of variance on the time series of spider densities showed that the lizard factor (present versus absent) varied significantly among years. Split-plot ANOVA with rainfall as a covariate indicated that spider density and the impact of lizards on spider density were both significantly correlated with rainfall. We discuss several hypotheses on the causal mechanisms that integrate abiotic and biotic factors.     

Environmental drivers of unprecedented Alexandrium catenella dinoflagellate blooms off eastern Tasmania, 2012–2018

Blooms of the highly toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella (previously referred to as tamarense group 1) were first detected off eastern Tasmania in 2012 and have since been responsible for incidences of human paralytic shellfish poisoning and extended closures (up to 25 weeks) of mussel, oyster, scallop, abalone and rock lobster industries (up to 150 mg/kg PST in mussels). Investigation of meteorological and oceanographic influences indicate that the annually recurrent winter-spring blooms (June–Oct) occur within a narrow water temperature window (10–15 °C) under two distinct sets of conditions: (1) following high rainfall and land run-off, under relatively light winds; and (2) following periods of anomalously low air temperatures and associated cooling of shallow coastal waters, again under relatively light winds. The common driver of blooms appears to be the development of stratification in coastal waters, via salinity and/or temperature gradients. We propose a framework for evaluating the risk of Alexandrium with the aim of developing a forecasting capability, and compare these environmental conditions with historic data to understand the recent advent of these blooms.