Is vegetation in equilibrium with climate? How to interpret late-Quaternary pollen data

Current methods for estimating past climatic patterns from pollen data require that the vegetation be in dynamic equilibrium with the climate. Because climate varies continuously on all time scales, judgement about equilibrium conditions must be made separately for each frequency band (i.e. time scale) of climatic change. For equilibrium conditions to exist between vegetation and climatic changes at a particular time scale, the climatic response time of the vegetation must be small compared to the time scale of climatic variation to which it is responding. The time required for vegetation to respond completely to climatic forcing at a time scale of 10⁴ yr is still unknown, but records of the vegetational response to climatic events of 500-to 1000-yr duration provide evidence for relatively short response times. Independent estimates for the possible patterns and timing of late-Quaternary climate changes suggest that much of the vegetational evidence previously interpreted as resulting from disequilibrium conditions can instead be interpreted as resulting from the individualistic response of plant taxa to the different regional patterns of temperature and precipitation change. The differences among taxa in their response to climate can lead a) to rates and direction of plant-population movements that differ among taxa and b) to fossil assemblages that differ from any modern assemblage. An example of late-Holocene vegetational change in southern Quebec illustrates how separate changes in summer and winter climates may explain the simultaneous expansion of spruce (Picea) populations southward and beech (Fagus) populations northward.     

Vegetation and climate reconstructions on different time scales in China: a review of Chinese palynological research

This paper reviews vegetation and climate reconstructions for different time scales based on palynological studies in China. It discusses examples of significant developments in palynological research topics within China: (1) Modern pollen—a modern pollen database (East Asia Surface Pollen Database) has been established through the collaboration of Chinese palynologists. Based on these data, modern pollen distributions and their quantitative relationship with vegetation and climate have been thoroughly studied. (2) Pre-Quaternary vegetation and climate dynamics—scientists have mapped pollen and palaeobotanical data from the Palaeogene. The vegetation distributions confirm a north–south zonal pattern during the Palaeogene that changed to an east–west monsoonal pattern during the Miocene and Pliocene. These results provide key evidence for understanding monsoon evolution. (3) Late-Quaternary vegetation—biome reconstructions based on fossil pollen data show spatial and temporal changes in vegetation since the Last Glacial Maximum, permitting a better understanding of climate change across China. (4) Quantitative climate reconstructions—some reconstructions have successfully detected Holocene climate variability thereby providing insights into monsoon history. At present, there are no comprehensive spatial reconstructions. Major possible future developments should focus on: (1) long-term vegetation reconstructions from lakes to study Asian monsoon dynamics at orbital scales; (2) quantitative reconstructions of vegetation and climate change to help stronger integration with palaeoclimate models and dynamic vegetation models; (3) land-cover and land-use change across China over the last 6,000 years to understand human impacts and provide empirical data for climate modellers; and (4) integration of pollen data with vegetation and climate modelling to understand the CO₂-vegetation relationship and climate dynamics.     

Palaeoecological evidence for Holocene vegetation, climate and land-use change in the low Don basin and Kalmuk area, southern Russia

Two¹⁴C-dated pollen profiles from mires in the steppe belt of southern Russia are presented. On the basis of these and data from earlier investigations, the Holocene forest history of the southern part of Russia and Ukraine is reconstructed. The steppe belt is very sensitive to climatic oscillations and, in particular, to changes in evapotranspiration. The most favourable climate occurred between 6000 and 4500 B.P. (6800–5200 cal. B.P.), when forest attained its maximum extent in the steppe belt. The period 4500–3500 B.P. (5200–3800 cal. B.P.) was characterised by drier climate with the most arid phase occurring between 4200–3700 B.P. (4700–4000 cal. B.P.). During arid phases, the area under forest and also peat accumulation rates declined. Subsequently, a number of less pronounced climatic oscillations occurred such as in the period 3400/3300–2800 B.P. (3600/3500–2900 cal. B.P.) when there was a return to more humid conditions. During the last 2500 years, the vegetation cover of the steppe belt in southern Russia and Ukraine took on its present-day aspect. On the one hand, there is close correlation between the Holocene vegetation history of southern Russia and Ukraine and, on the other hand, the steppe belt of Kazakhstan and transgressions in the Caspian sea. Human impact on the natural vegetation became important from the Bronze Age onwards (after 4500 B.P.; 5200 cal. B.P.). Particular attention is given to the history of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), which had a much wider distribution in the southern part of eastern Europe in the early Holocene. The reduction in range during recent millennia has come about as a result of the combined effects of both climatic deterioration and increased human impact.     

Last millennium palaeoenvironmental changes from a Baltic bog (Poland) inferred from stable isotopes, pollen, plant macrofossils and testate amoebae

The Baltic coast of Northern Poland is an interesting region for palaeoclimatic studies because of the mixed oceanic and continental climatic influences and the fact that the dominance of one or the other of these two influences might have changed over time. Also, unlike many more intensively studied regions of Europe, human impact in the region was rather limited until the 19th century. We present a 1200-year high-resolution record from Stążki mire, an ombrotrophic bog located 35 km from the Baltic Sea coast. Using testate amoebae, stable isotopes (δ¹³C) of Sphagnum stems, pollen, plant macrofossils and dendroecological analyses, our aims were to: 1) reconstruct the last millennium palaeoenvironment in the study site and its surroundings, 2) identify the major wet–dry shifts, 3) determine if those events correlate with climate change and human impact, 4) assess the resilience of the Baltic bog ecosystem following human impact, and 5) compare the palaeo-moisture signal from the Baltic coast with records from more oceanic regions. Two dry periods are inferred at AD 1100–1500 and 1650–1900 (–2005). The first dry shift is probably climate-driven as pollen record shows little evidence of human indicators. The second dry shift can be related to local peat exploitation of the mire. In the 20th century additional limited drainage took place and since ca. AD 1950 the mire has been recovering. From 1500 AD onwards all proxies indicate wetter condition. The beginning of this wet shift occurred during the Little Ice Age and may therefore be a climatic signal. The macrofossil data show that Sphagnum fuscum dominated the pristine mire vegetation but then declined and finally disappeared at ca. AD 1900. This pattern is comparable with the timing of extinction of Sphagnum austinii (= Sphagnum imbricatum) in the UK. This study illustrates the value of high-resolution multi-proxy studies of peat archives to assess the magnitude of anthropogenic land-use changes. This study presents the first direct comparison of testate amoebae and stable isotope data from the same core. The two proxies correlate significantly throughout the record and most strongly for the latter part of the record when most of the variability was recorded.     

Colombian dry moist forest transitions in the Llanos Orientales—A comparison of model and pollen-based biome reconstructions

Colombian vegetation, at the ecological level of the biome, is reconstructed at six sites using pollen data assigned a priori to plant functional types and biomes. The chosen sites incorporate four savanna sites (Laguna Sardinas, Laguna Angel, El Piñal and Laguna Carimagua), a site on the transition between savanna and Amazon rainforest (Loma Linda) and a site within the Amazon rainforest (Pantano de Monica). The areal extent of tropical moist forest, tropical dry forest and steppe have been subject to significant change: differential responses of the vegetation to climatic shifts are related to changes in plant available moisture, duration of dry season and edaphic controls on the vegetation. The record from El Piñal shows that the present-day savanna vegetation, dominated by steppe (Poaceae) with little occurrence of woody savanna taxa (e.g. Curatella, Byrsonima), was present since the last glacial period of the northern hemisphere. Unfortunately, El Piñal is located on an edaphic savanna and is not particularly responsive to registering change. Most records cover the early Holocene; one site records the El Abra stadial (Younger Dryas equivalent), when forest expansion reflects more humid climatic conditions and higher plant available moisture. During the early and middle Holocene, the maximum expansion of steppe and tropical dry forest occurred, indicating that dry climatic conditions continued to around 4000 ¹⁴C BP. The following period, from shortly before 4000 ¹⁴C BP, is characterised by an increase in forest and gallery forests, reflecting a wetter period probably with a shorter annual dry season. Anthropogenic influence on the vegetation is recorded by all the records over the last millennial, particularly characterised by a reduction in forest cover and high amplitude changes in vegetation.Biome transitions from one type to another, and the environmental controls on this shift, are investigated by applying a vegetation model (BIOME-3). The model uses climatic data from six meteorological stations that, encompass a range of environments within lowland Colombia, which are similar to the pollen data. The signals of vegetation change can be translated to the main environmental controls of temperature and moisture to indicate the degree of change needed in these parameters to record the vegetation change depicted by the pollen data. Moisture balance is the dominant control on driving vegetation change whether under seasonal or annual control. The combined reconstruction from pollen data and model output of biome-scale vegetation dynamics for lowland Colombia allows an understanding of the environmental controls to be developed.     

History of Late Holocene vegetation at Quintana Roo,Caribbean coast of Mexico

A pollen record of a Late Holocene sediment core from the Mexican Caribbean coast (Quintana Roo) shows the development and changes of a mangrove system. Humid conditions seem to have persisted for the period approximately 2500–1500 ¹⁴C yr BP (pollen zone I), and mangrove Rhizophora mangle dominated with a good representation of elements from the nearby semi-evergreen tropical forest. During the period approximately 1500–1200 ¹⁴C yr BP (pollen zone II) the mangrove Conocarpus erecta dominated. R. mangle almost disappeared and other taxa appeared, suggesting drier climatic conditions and generally more open vegetation. This dry period coincided with the period of the Maya cultural decline. The following period (pollen zone III, approximately 1200–1000 ¹⁴C yr BP) was characterized by the recovery of R. mangle, indicating more humid conditions than in the preceding pollen zone. Pollen zone IV (approximately 1000 ¹⁴C yr BP till present) suggests a drier period reoccuring with C. erecta; this marks the transition to present day conditions.     

Climatic and local effects on stalagmite δC values at Lianhua Cave, China

Carbon isotopes in speleothems may serve as indicators of vegetative change, climatic conditions, and karst processes. In many recent studies of Chinese stalagmites, however, carbon isotopes have often been neglected or underutilized in interpreting paleoenvironments. Here, we present a continuous decadal-scale δ¹³C record (819 measurements) of the mid- to late-Holocene from a precisely-dated (10 ²³⁰Th dates) aragonite stalagmite from Lianhua Cave, Hunan Province, China. Compared to coeval stalagmites from other Chinese caves, the average δ¹³C value (− 3.6‰) of stalagmite A1 is higher by ~ 2–7‰. Variations in the δ¹³C values (0.1‰ to − 6.0‰) reflect changes in both vegetative productivity and inorganic processes, which respond to climatic processes. The δ¹³C record of stalagmite A1 can be subdivided into three intervals: 1) warm–humid stage (6.6 to 3.8 ka); 2) transitional stage (3.8 to 1.6 ka); and 3) cool–arid stage (1.6 ka to present). Comparisons with other stalagmite and paleoclimatic records demonstrate that these intervals are generally consistent with changes in regional vegetation and climatic conditions.     

Arctic shrub colonization lagged peak postglacial warmth: Molecular evidence in lake sediment from Arctic Canada

Arctic shrubification is an observable consequence of climate change, already resulting in ecological shifts and global‐scale climate feedbacks including changes in land surface albedo and enhanced evapotranspiration. However, the rate at which shrubs can colonize previously glaciated terrain in a warming world is largely unknown. Reconstructions of past vegetation dynamics in conjunction with climate records can provide critical insights into shrubification rates and controls on plant migration, but paleoenvironmental reconstructions based on pollen may be biased by the influx of exotic pollen to tundra settings. Here, we reconstruct past plant communities using sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA), which has a more local source area than pollen. We additionally reconstruct past temperature variability using bacterial cell membrane lipids (branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers) and an aquatic productivity indicator (biogenic silica) to evaluate the relative timing of postglacial ecological and climate changes at a lake on southern Baffin Island, Arctic Canada. The sedaDNA record tightly constrains the colonization of dwarf birch (Betula, a thermophilous shrub) to 5.9 ± 0.1 ka, ~3 ka after local deglaciation as determined by cosmogenic ¹⁰Be moraine dating and >2 ka later than Betula pollen is recorded in nearby lake sediment. We then assess the paleovegetation history within the context of summer temperature and find that paleotemperatures were highest prior to 6.3 ka, followed by cooling in the centuries preceding Betula establishment. Together, these molecular proxies reveal that Betula colonization lagged peak summer temperatures, suggesting that inefficient dispersal, rather than climate, may have limited Arctic shrub migration in this region. In addition, these data suggest that pollen‐based climate reconstructions from high latitudes, which rely heavily on the presence and abundance of pollen from thermophilous taxa like Betula, can be compromised by both exotic pollen fluxes and vegetation migration lags.     

Seasonal and geographic climate variabilities during the Last Glacial Maximum in North America: Applying isotopic analysis and macrophysical climate models

Climate models provide estimates of climatic change over periods of time in the ancient past. Macrophysical climate models (MCM) differ from the more widely used general circulation models (GCM), in that MCMs provide temporally high-resolution (~ 100 years) and site-specific estimations of monthly values of climate variables such as temperature and precipitation. In this paper, seasonal changes in climate variables are modeled for six ¹⁴C-dated fossil localities in North America. Five of these localities represent the time of maximum extent of ice during the most recent glacial episode, the Full Glacial (25 + –15 ka), including one at the peak of the Last Glacial Maximum (17–15 ka). The other locality represents the time as the ice began to recede, the Late Glacial (15–11 ka). Seasonal variations in temperature and precipitation modeled by MCM are herein compared with interpretations of seasonal variation based upon oxygen isotopes from serially sampled hypsodont teeth (mostly Equus and Bison) collected from each of these localities. Additionally, the MCM-modeled seasonal variations are used to predict the expected abundances of different plant functional groups (PFG) during those times, especially C3 and C4 functional groups, using modern relationships. These predictions are compared with carbon isotopic values from the same teeth. The importance of atmospheric pCO² for the relative abundance of plants utilizing the C4 metabolic pathway is discussed, given that glacial episodes are known to have been times of lower atmospheric pCO². Interpretations of seasonal variability and the relative abundance of C3 versus C4 vegetation based upon isotopes from tooth enamel are in broad agreement with predictions using the MCM and the modern distribution of PFGs with climate variables. The influence of pCO² on the distribution of C4 vegetation during glacial times appears to be negligible.     

Aerobiology and palaeoecology

Summary Aerobiology involves the study of particles present in the air. Of these, palaeoecologists are most interested in pollen and spores, specially those which come to rest on the surface of the ground. Pollen sampling in palaeoecological studies, therefore, uses a pollen trap which is placed at ground level and the sampling period is a whole season or year.Using examples from northern Finland, for each vegetation type sampled, a pollen analogue is obtained which comprises percentage presence and deposition values cm^–2 year^–1 for the pollen types recorded. This analogue is used to interpret pollen assemblages from the past. In general, the tree pollen provides information of the regional situation and the herbaceous pollen of specific local conditions. Both natural and man-made environments are considered. The absolute deposition values are often crucial in distinguishing between two plant communities with otherwise similar percentage pollen values. They can also be used to follow the location of the boundaries between different vegetation types through time. Seasonal records of pollen deposition are sometimes useful in distinguishing the different source of the pollen reaching a specific site. In certain instances, annual pollen deposition values can be employed to estimate the rate of accumulation of a peat deposit. In addition, long series of annual pollen deposition values can be compared with meteorological data for the same period to test for trends and correlations. This, potentially, allows both a more detailed interpretation of past climatic changes and provides a basis for models predicting futures ones.     

Modeling vegetation greenness and its climate sensitivity with deep‐learning technology

Climate sensitivity of vegetation has long been explored using statistical or process‐based models. However, great uncertainties still remain due to the methodologies’ deficiency in capturing the complex interactions between climate and vegetation. Here, we developed global gridded climate–vegetation models based on long short‐term memory (LSTM) network, which is a powerful deep‐learning algorithm for long‐time series modeling, to achieve accurate vegetation monitoring and investigate the complex relationship between climate and vegetation. We selected the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) that represents vegetation greenness as model outputs. The climate data (monthly temperature and precipitation) were used as inputs. We trained the networks with data from 1982 to 2003, and the data from 2004 to 2015 were used to validate the models. Error analysis and sensitivity analysis were performed to assess the model errors and investigate the sensitivity of global vegetation to climate change. Results show that models based on deep learning are very effective in simulating and predicting the vegetation greenness dynamics. For models training, the root mean square error (RMSE) is <0.01. Model validation also assure the accuracy of our models. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis of models revealed a spatial pattern of global vegetation to climate, which provides us a new way to investigate the climate sensitivity of vegetation. Our study suggests that it is a good way to integrate deep‐learning method to monitor the vegetation change under global change. In the future, we can explore more complex climatic and ecological systems with deep learning and coupling with certain physical process to better understand the nature.     

Effect of global atmospheric carbon dioxide on glacial–interglacial vegetation change

Global vegetation changes at the time‐scale of the Earth's orbital variations (10⁴–10⁵ years) have been interpreted as a direct effect of consequential climatic changes, especially temperature. At mid‐ and high latitudes, the evidence from fossil data and general circulation models (GCMs) supporting this hypothesis is strong, but at low latitudes there is a major discrepancy. GCMs predict temperature changes that are less than those inferred from palaeoclimatic data, including the plant fossil record. However, changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations can account for a high proportion of the low‐latitude vegetation change hitherto attributed to temperature change, and may thus explain the discrepancy. The implications of this finding are considerable for understanding patterns of macroevolution and ecosystem development throughout the geological record.     

Small Changes in Climate Can Profoundly Alter the Dynamics and Ecosystem Services of Tropical Crater Lakes

African tropical lakes provide vital ecosystem services including food and water to some of the fastest growing human populations, yet they are among the most understudied ecosystems in the world. The consequences of climate change and other stressors on the tropical lakes of Africa have been informed by long-term analyses, but these studies have largely focused on the massive Great Rift Valley lakes. Our objective was to evaluate how recent climate change has altered the functioning and services of smaller tropical lakes, which are far more abundant on the landscape. Based on a paired analysis of 20 years of high-resolution water column data and a paleolimnological record from a small crater lake in western Uganda, we present evidence that even a modest warming of the air (∼0.9°C increase over 20 years) and changes in the timing and intensity of rainfall can have significant consequences on the dynamics of this common tropical lake type. For example, we observed a significant nonlinear increase (R²_adj = 0.23, e.d.f. = 7, p<0.0001) in thermal stability over the past 20 years. This resulted in the expansion of anoxic waters and consequent deterioration of fish habitat and appears to have abated primary production; processes that may impair ecosystem services for a vulnerable human population. This study on a system representative of small tropical crater lakes highlights the far-reaching effects of global climatic change on tropical waters. Increased research efforts into tropical aquatic ecosystem health and the development of sound management practices are necessary in order to strengthen adaptive capabilities in tropical regions.     

Detecting human impact in the pollen record using data-model comparison

Palaeoecological data are compared with output from climate-driven forest simulation models to separate human influence as a driver of vegetation dynamics from other drivers such as climatic change. The transition from Tilia cordata to Fagus sylvatica dominance in a small forest hollow in Denmark was not predicted by a climate-driven forest simulation model and could be ascribed to anthropogenic impact. This transition can be upscaled to a large region of north-west Europe and contributes to a data-model mismatch for the European distribution of Fagus 6,000 years ago. A data-model mismatch for Picea abies during the last few centuries in southern Scandinavia can also be attributed to anthropogenic impact. Combining pollen data and vegetation models can help with the important task of upscaling from the scale of the forest stand, where anthropogenic impact is readily detectable, to regions and continents, where it is more challenging to distinguish anthropogenic impact from the impacts of climatic change.     

Present,Future, and Novel Bioclimates of the San Francisco,California Region

Bioclimates are syntheses of climatic variables into biologically relevant categories that facilitate comparative studies of biotic responses to climate conditions. Isobioclimates, unique combinations of bioclimatic indices (continentality, ombrotype, and thermotype), were constructed for northern California coastal ranges based on the Rivas-Martinez worldwide bioclimatic classification system for the end of the 20^th century climatology (1971–2000) and end of the 21^st century climatology (2070–2099) using two models, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model and the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), under the medium-high A2 emission scenario. The digitally mapped results were used to 1) assess the relative redistribution of isobioclimates and their magnitude of change, 2) quantify the loss of isobioclimates into the future, 3) identify and locate novel isobioclimates projected to appear, and 4) explore compositional change in vegetation types among analog isobioclimate patches. This study used downscaled climate variables to map the isobioclimates at a fine spatial resolution −270 m grid cells. Common to both models of future climate was a large change in thermotype. Changes in ombrotype differed among the two models. The end of 20^th century climatology has 83 isobioclimates covering the 63,000 km² study area. In both future projections 51 of those isobioclimates disappear over 40,000 km². The ordination of vegetation-bioclimate relationships shows very strong correlation of Rivas-Martinez indices with vegetation distribution and composition. Comparisons of vegetation composition among analog patches suggest that vegetation change will be a local rearrangement of species already in place rather than one requiring long distance dispersal. The digitally mapped results facilitate comparison with other Mediterranean regions. Major remaining challenges include predicting vegetation composition of novel isobioclimates and developing metrics to compare differences in climate space.     

Integrated modeling predicts shifts in waterbird population dynamics under climate change

Climate change has been identified as one of the most important drivers of wildlife population dynamics. The in‐depth knowledge of the complex relationships between climate and population sizes through density dependent demographic processes is important for understanding and predicting population shifts under climate change, which requires integrated population models (IPMs) that unify the analyses of demography and abundance data. In this study we developed an IPM based on Gaussian approximation to dynamic N‐mixture models for large scale population data. We then analyzed four decades (1972–2013) of mallard Anas platyrhynchos breeding population survey, band‐recovery and climate data covering a large spatial extent from North American prairies through boreal habitat to Alaska. We aimed to test the hypothesis that climate change will cause shifts in population dynamics if climatic effects on demographic parameters that have substantial contribution to population growth vary spatially. More specifically, we examined the spatial variation of climatic effects on density dependent population demography, identified the key demographic parameters that are influential to population growth, and forecasted population responses to climate change. Our results revealed that recruitment, which explained more variance of population growth than survival, was sensitive to the temporal variation of precipitation in the southern portion of the study area but not in the north. Survival, by contrast, was insensitive to climatic variation. We then forecasted a decrease in mallard breeding population density in the south and an increase in the northwestern portion of the study area, indicating potential shifts in population dynamics under future climate change. Our results implied that different strategies need to be considered across regions to conserve waterfowl populations in the face of climate change. Our modelling approach can be adapted for other species and thus has wide application to understanding and predicting population dynamics in the presence of global change.     

Climate-related changes during the Late Glacial and early Holocene in northern Poland, as derived from the sediments of Lake Sierzywk

Reconstruction of past climate change and ecosystem response is important to correctly assess the impacts of global warming. In this study, we provide a paleoenvironmental record of in-lake and catchment changes in northern Poland during the Late Glacial and early Holocene using various biotic proxies (pollen, macrofossils and Cladocera) preserved in the lake sedimentary record. Chronology was derived from palynological correlation with a well-dated pollen sequence from nearby-lying Lake Ostrowite and some well-dated events of vegetation history in Central Europe. Pollen analysis provided information on regional climate change affecting vegetation dynamics, whereas macrofossils supplied substantial information on the response of local flora and fauna to climatic, geomorphological and limnological changes. Data were supplemented by analysis of Cladocera remains, which are of special importance because of their quick response to changes in trophic conditions and climate (especially temperature). The bottom of the sediment core reflects an initial stage of the lake formed during the late Aller?d. The Younger Dryas cooling apparently resulted in forest recession and presence of cold tolerant Cladocera species. Due to amelioration of climate at the end of the Younger Dryas and melting of ice, the lake deepened. The beginning of the Holocene was characterised by forest shrinkage and induced clear changes in local flora and fauna communities. The regional vegetation development deduced from the lake’s core is generally consistent with the vegetation history of central Europe. Due to the location of the site near the seashore (oceanic climate and western wind), signals of warming came earlier than inland and in eastern Poland.     

Masting by Betula-species; applying the resource budget model to north European data sets

Masting, the intermittent production of large crops of flowers by a plant population, is a common feature among trees in boreal and temperate forests. The pollen of many broadleaved trees causes allergic diseases, which are major causes of increasing health-care costs in industrialised countries. As the prevalence and severity of allergic diseases are connected with the concentrations of airborne pollen, an universal model predicting the intensity of the coming flowering would be a valuable tool for pollen information services, and ultimately for allergic people and allergologists. We investigated whether a resource budget model created in Japan explains the fluctuations in the annual pollen sums of Betula-species in north European data sets (10–12 years at 4 sites, 20 years at 10 sites). Using the shorter data sets, the model explained 76–92% of the annual fluctuations at five study sites. Using the 20-year data set, the percentage for southern Finland was much lower, only 48%, compared with the 85% of the 12-year data set. The annual pollen sums have been higher during the 1990s than in the 1980s, which may explain the ineffectiveness of the model, while applied to the 20-year data set. Our results support the resource budget model: the masting of birch species is regulated by weather factors together with the system of resource allocation among years. The model can serve pollen information service. However, only the 10 most recent years should be used to avoid interference from trends in changing vegetation and/or climate.     

A 7000-year pollen record from the Amazon lowlands,Ecuador

The longest continuous Amazonian palynological record (ca 7010 yrs B.P. to present) from Lake Ayauchⁱ, Ecuador, reveals species-by-species abundance changes during a period of climatic change. Pollen influx from a wet tropical rain forest was found to be high, 1×10⁴–10⁵ grains cm^-2 yr^-1, although mature forest taxa were poorly represented. Horizons of laminated sediments and weathered gyttja, dated to ca 4200–3150 B.P., evidence a period of reduced net water availability. During this period Ficus, Alchornea and Palmae pollen representation appears to decline, although there is no evidence of a major forest compositional change. The lake was reduced to a shallow, possibly seasonal, pool. Zea cultivation was recorded between ca 2850 B.P., (the earliest paleoecological record to date in the Amazon basin) and ca 800 B.P. It is suggested that Zea was cultivated on exposed lake sediment within the crater at times of low water levels. The abandonment of Zea cultivation may have been due to rising water levels or social unrest.     

Climate-tree-growth relationships of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in the French Permanent Plot Network (RENECOFOR)

The influence of climate on the radial growth of Fagus sylvatica was investigated using 15 chronologies developed from mature stands of the French Permanent Plot Network (RENECOFOR) growing under different climatic and soil conditions. The relationships between climate and ring widths were analyzed using extreme growth years, simple correlations and response functions analysis. Monthly climatic regressors were derived by a physiological water balance model that used daily climatic data and stand parameters to estimate soil water deficits. The three most frequent negative pointer years (1959, 1989, 1976) result from a particularly intense and durable drought, whereas positive years (1977, 1958) coincide with wet conditions. The total ring chronology variance attributable to climate averages 34.1% (15.8% –57%). Current early-summer soil water deficit enters in 10 models and the deficit in June explains alone a large part of the radial growth variability (mean value: 26.6%). Temperature or soil water deficit for the other months and weather conditions during the previous season were of little consistency across stands. The response pattern of earlywood is very similar and the percentage of variance explained is higher (16.2% –57.8%). Latewood widths present a different response pattern. High minimum temperature in August and/or September often favour wide latewood widths and monthly water deficits play a secondary role. The percentage of variance explained ranges from 8.8% to 67.4%. Soil water capacity strongly modulates ring characteristics and climate-growth relationships. Mean sensitivity, expressed population signal, signal-to-noise ratio and the strength of growth-climate correlations increase with decreasing soil water capacity.