Model-guided fieldwork: practical guidelines for multidisciplinary research on wildlife ecological and epidemiological dynamics

Infectious disease ecology has recently raised its public profile beyond the scientific community due to the major threats that wildlife infections pose to biological conservation, animal welfare, human health and food security. As we start unravelling the full extent of emerging infectious diseases, there is an urgent need to facilitate multidisciplinary research in this area. Even though research in ecology has always had a strong theoretical component, cultural and technical hurdles often hamper direct collaboration between theoreticians and empiricists. Building upon our collective experience of multidisciplinary research and teaching in this area, we propose practical guidelines to help with effective integration among mathematical modelling, fieldwork and laboratory work. Modelling tools can be used at all steps of a field-based research programme, from the formulation of working hypotheses to field study design and data analysis. We illustrate our model-guided fieldwork framework with two case studies we have been conducting on wildlife infectious diseases: plague transmission in prairie dogs and lyssavirus dynamics in American and African bats. These demonstrate that mechanistic models, if properly integrated in research programmes, can provide a framework for holistic approaches to complex biological systems.     

Linking anthropogenic resources to wildlife–pathogen dynamics: a review and meta‐analysis

Urbanisation and agriculture cause declines for many wildlife, but some species benefit from novel resources, especially food, provided in human‐dominated habitats. Resulting shifts in wildlife ecology can alter infectious disease dynamics and create opportunities for cross‐species transmission, yet predicting host–pathogen responses to resource provisioning is challenging. Factors enhancing transmission, such as increased aggregation, could be offset by better host immunity due to improved nutrition. Here, we conduct a review and meta‐analysis to show that food provisioning results in highly heterogeneous infection outcomes that depend on pathogen type and anthropogenic food source. We also find empirical support for behavioural and immune mechanisms through which human‐provided resources alter host exposure and tolerance to pathogens. A review of recent theoretical models of resource provisioning and infection dynamics shows that changes in host contact rates and immunity produce strong non‐linear responses in pathogen invasion and prevalence. By integrating results of our meta‐analysis back into a theoretical framework, we find provisioning amplifies pathogen invasion under increased host aggregation and tolerance, but reduces transmission if provisioned food decreases dietary exposure to parasites. These results carry implications for wildlife disease management and highlight areas for future work, such as how resource shifts might affect virulence evolution.     

Landscape-level toxicant exposure mediates infection impacts on wildlife populations

Anthropogenic landscape modification such as urbanization can expose wildlife to toxicants, with profound behavioural and health effects. Toxicant exposure can alter the local transmission of wildlife diseases by reducing survival or altering immune defence. However, predicting the impacts of pathogens on wildlife across their ranges is complicated by heterogeneity in toxicant exposure across the landscape, especially if toxicants alter wildlife movement from toxicant-contaminated to uncontaminated habitats. We developed a mechanistic model to explore how toxicant effects on host health and movement propensity influence range-wide pathogen transmission, and zoonotic exposure risk, as an increasing fraction of the landscape is toxicant-contaminated. When toxicant-contaminated habitat is scarce on the landscape, costs to movement and survival from toxicant exposure can trap infected animals in contaminated habitat and reduce landscape-level transmission. Increasing the proportion of contaminated habitat causes host population declines from combined effects of toxicants and infection. The onset of host declines precedes an increase in the density of infected hosts in contaminated habitat and thus may serve as an early warning of increasing potential for zoonotic spillover in urbanizing landscapes. These results highlight how sublethal effects of toxicants can determine pathogen impacts on wildlife populations that may not manifest until landscape contamination is widespread.     

Integrating Survey and Molecular Approaches to Better Understand Wildlife Disease Ecology

Infectious wildlife diseases have enormous global impacts, leading to human pandemics, global biodiversity declines and socio-economic hardship. Understanding how infection persists and is transmitted in wildlife is critical for managing diseases, but our understanding is limited. Our study aim was to better understand how infectious disease persists in wildlife populations by integrating genetics, ecology and epidemiology approaches. Specifically, we aimed to determine whether environmental or host factors were stronger drivers of Salmonella persistence or transmission within a remote and isolated wild pig (Sus scrofa) population. We determined the Salmonella infection status of wild pigs. Salmonella isolates were genotyped and a range of data was collected on putative risk factors for Salmonella transmission. We a priori identified several plausible biological hypotheses for Salmonella prevalence (cross sectional study design) versus transmission (molecular case series study design) and fit the data to these models. There were 543 wild pig Salmonella observations, sampled at 93 unique locations. Salmonella prevalence was 41% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 37–45%). The median Salmonella DICE coefficient (or Salmonella genetic similarity) was 52% (interquartile range [IQR]: 42–62%). Using the traditional cross sectional prevalence study design, the only supported model was based on the hypothesis that abundance of available ecological resources determines Salmonella prevalence in wild pigs. In the molecular study design, spatial proximity and herd membership as well as some individual risk factors (sex, condition score and relative density) determined transmission between pigs. Traditional cross sectional surveys and molecular epidemiological approaches are complementary and together can enhance understanding of disease ecology: abundance of ecological resources critical for wildlife influences Salmonella prevalence, whereas Salmonella transmission is driven by local spatial, social, density and individual factors, rather than resources. This enhanced understanding has implications for the control of diseases in wildlife populations. Attempts to manage wildlife disease using simplistic density approaches do not acknowledge the complexity of disease ecology.     

TB-infected deer are more closely related than non-infected deer

Identifying mechanisms of pathogen transmission is critical to controlling disease. Social organization should influence contacts among individuals and thus the distribution and spread of disease within a population. Molecular genetic markers can be used to elucidate mechanisms of disease transmission in wildlife populations without undertaking detailed observational studies to determine probable contact rates. Estimates of genealogical relationships within a bovine tuberculosis-infected white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) population indicated that infected deer were significantly more closely related than non-infected deer suggesting that contact within family groups was a significant mechanism of disease transmission. Results demonstrate that epidemiological models should incorporate aspects of host ecology likely to affect the probability of disease transmission.     

Genetic assessment of environmental features that influence deer dispersal: implications for prion-infected populations

The landscape can influence host dispersal and density, which in turn, affect infectious disease transmission, spread, and persistence. Understanding how the landscape influences wildlife dispersal and pathogen epidemiology can enhance the efficacy of disease management in natural populations. We applied landscape genetics to examine relationships among landscape variables, dispersal of white-tailed deer hosts and transmission/spread of chronic wasting disease (CWD), a fatal prion encephalopathy. Our focus was on quantifying movements and population structure of host deer in infected areas as a means of predicting the spread of this pathology and promoting its adaptive management. We analyzed microsatellite genotypes of CWD-infected and uninfected deer from two disease foci (Southern Wisconsin, Northern Illinois). We quantified gene flow and population structure using F _ST, assignment tests, and spatial autocorrelation analyses. Gene flow estimates were then contrasted against a suite of landscape variables that potentially mediate deer dispersal. Forest fragmentation and grassland connectivity promoted deer movements while rivers, agricultural fields and large urbanized areas impeded movement. Landscape variables, deer dispersal, and disease transmission covaried significantly and positively in our analyses. Habitats with elevated host gene flow supported the concept of dispersal-mediated CWD transmission by reflecting a concomitant, rapid CWD expansion. Large, interrelated social groups isolated by movement barriers overlapped disease foci, suggesting that philopatry exacerbated CWD transmission. Our results promote adaptive management of CWD by predicting patterns of its spread and identifying habitats at risk for invasion. Further, our landscape genetics approach underscores the significance of topography and host behavior in wildlife disease transmission.     

Wildlife disease prevalence in human‐modified landscapes

Human‐induced landscape change associated with habitat loss and fragmentation places wildlife populations at risk. One issue in these landscapes is a change in the prevalence of disease which may result in increased mortality and reduced fecundity. Our understanding of the influence of habitat loss and fragmentation on the prevalence of wildlife diseases is still in its infancy. What is evident is that changes in disease prevalence as a result of human‐induced landscape modification are highly variable. The importance of infectious diseases for the conservation of wildlife will increase as the amount and quality of suitable habitat decreases due to human land‐use pressures. We review the experimental and observational literature of the influence of human‐induced landscape change on wildlife disease prevalence, and discuss disease transmission types and host responses as mechanisms that are likely to determine the extent of change in disease prevalence. It is likely that transmission dynamics will be the key process in determining a pathogen's impact on a host population, while the host response may ultimately determine the extent of disease prevalence. Finally, we conceptualize mechanisms and identify future research directions to increase our understanding of the relationship between human‐modified landscapes and wildlife disease prevalence. This review highlights that there are rarely consistent relationships between wildlife diseases and human‐modified landscapes. In addition, variation is evident between transmission types and landscape types, with the greatest positive influence on disease prevalence being in urban landscapes and directly transmitted disease systems. While we have a limited understanding of the potential influence of habitat loss and fragmentation on wildlife disease, there are a number of important areas to address in future research, particularly to account for the variability in increased and decreased disease prevalence. Previous studies have been based on a one‐dimensional comparison between unmodified and modified sites. What is lacking are spatially and temporally explicit quantitative approaches which are required to enable an understanding of the range of key causal mechanisms and the reasons for variability. This is particularly important for replicated studies across different host‐pathogen systems. Furthermore, there are few studies that have attempted to separate the independent effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on wildlife disease, which are the major determinants of wildlife population dynamics in human‐modified landscapes. There is an urgent need to understand better the potential causal links between the processes of human‐induced landscape change and the associated influences of habitat fragmentation, matrix hostility and loss of connectivity on an animal's physiological stress, immune response and disease susceptibility. This review identified no study that had assessed the influence of human‐induced landscape change on the prevalence of a wildlife sexually transmitted disease. A better understanding of the various mechanisms linking human‐induced landscape change and the prevalence of wildlife disease will lead to more successful conservation management outcomes.     

Host behaviour–parasite feedback: an essential link between animal behaviour and disease ecology

Animal behaviour and the ecology and evolution of parasites are inextricably linked. For this reason, animal behaviourists and disease ecologists have been interested in the intersection of their respective fields for decades. Despite this interest, most research at the behaviour–disease interface focuses either on how host behaviour affects parasites or how parasites affect behaviour, with little overlap between the two. Yet, the majority of interactions between hosts and parasites are probably reciprocal, such that host behaviour feeds back on parasites and vice versa. Explicitly considering these feedbacks is essential for understanding the complex connections between animal behaviour and parasite ecology and evolution. To illustrate this point, we discuss how host behaviour–parasite feedbacks might operate and explore the consequences of feedback for studies of animal behaviour and parasites. For example, ignoring the feedback of host social structure on parasite dynamics can limit the accuracy of predictions about parasite spread. Likewise, considering feedback in studies of parasites and animal personalities may provide unique insight about the maintenance of variation in personality types. Finally, applying the feedback concept to links between host behaviour and beneficial, rather than pathogenic, microbes may shed new light on transitions between mutualism and parasitism. More generally, accounting for host behaviour–parasite feedbacks can help identify critical gaps in our understanding of how key host behaviours and parasite traits evolve and are maintained.     

Open questions and recent advances in the control of a multi‐host infectious disease: animal tuberculosis

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Ruminating on complexity: macroparasites of wildlife and livestock

Recent advances in ecology have improved our understanding of the role of parasites in the dynamics of wildlife populations. However, conditions that prevail in many wildlife systems, such as host movement, contact with livestock, and heterogeneity in the environment of the parasite outside of the host, have largely been ignored in existing models of macroparasite transmission. We need to refine these models if we are to stand a chance of developing effective parasite control strategies. New quantitative approaches enable us to address key complexities and make better use of scarce data, and these should enhance our efforts to understand and control emerging problems of interspecific parasite transmission.     

Transmission dynamics of an emerging infectious disease in wildlife through host reproductive cycles

Emerging infectious diseases are major threats to wildlife populations. To enhance our understanding of the dynamics of these diseases, we investigated how host reproductive behavior and seasonal temperature variation drive transmission of infections among wild hosts, using the model system of cyprinid herpesvirus 3 (CyHV-3) disease in common carp. Our main findings were as follows: (1) a seroprevalence survey showed that CyHV-3 infection occurred mostly in adult hosts, (2) a quantitative assay for CyHV-3 in a host population demonstrated that CyHV-3 was most abundant in the spring when host reproduction occurred and water temperature increased simultaneously and (3) an analysis of the dynamics of CyHV-3 in water revealed that CyHV-3 concentration increased markedly in breeding habitats during host group mating. These results indicate that breeding habitats can become hot spots for transmission of infectious diseases if hosts aggregate for mating and the activation of pathogens occurs during the host breeding season.     

Understanding risk perceptions to enhance communication about human-wildlife interactions and the impacts of zoonotic disease

Inclusion of wildlife in the concept of One Health is important for two primary reasons: (1) the physical health of humans, domesticated animals, and wildlife is linked inextricably through shared diseases, and (2) humans' emotional well-being can be affected by their perceptions of animal health. Although an explicit premise of the One Health Initiative is that healthy wildlife contribute to human health, and vice versa, the initiative also suggests implicitly that wildlife may pose threats to human health through zoonotic disease transmission. As people learn more about One Health, an important question surfaces: How will they react to communications carrying the message that human health and wildlife health are linked? In the absence of adequate relevant research data, we recommend caution in the production and dissemination of One Health messages because of possible unintended or collateral effects. Understanding how and why individuals perceive risks related to wildlife diseases is essential for determining message content that promotes public support for healthy wildlife populations, on the one hand, and, on the other, for identifying messages that might inadvertently increase concern about human health effects of diseased wildlife. To that end, we review risk perception research and summarize the few empirical studies that exist on perceived risk associated with zoonoses. We conclude with some research questions that need answering to help One Health practitioners better understand how the public will interpret their messages and thus how to communicate positively and without negative collateral consequences for wildlife conservation.     

Covariation between the physiological and behavioral components of pathogen transmission: host heterogeneity determines epidemic outcomes

Although heterogeneity in contact rate, physiology, and behavioral response to infection have all been empirically demonstrated in host–pathogen systems, little is known about how interactions between individual variation in behavior and physiology scale‐up to affect pathogen transmission at a population level. The objective of this study is to evaluate how covariation between the behavioral and physiological components of transmission might affect epidemic outcomes in host populations. We tested the consequences of contact rate covarying with susceptibility, infectiousness, and infection status using an individual‐based, dynamic network model where individuals initiate and terminate contacts with conspecifics based on their behavioral predispositions and their infection status. Our results suggest that both heterogeneity in physiology and subsequent covariation of physiology with contact rate could powerfully influence epidemic dynamics. Overall, we found that 1) individual variability in susceptibility and infectiousness can reduce the expected maximum prevalence and increase epidemic variability; 2) when contact rate and susceptibility or infectiousness negatively covary, it takes substantially longer for epidemics to spread throughout the population, and rates of epidemic spread remained suppressed even for highly transmissible pathogens; and 3) reductions in contact rate resulting from infection‐induced behavioral changes can prevent the pathogen from reaching most of the population. These effects were strongest for theoretical pathogens with lower transmissibility and for populations where the observed variation in contact rate was higher, suggesting that such heterogeneity may be most important for less infectious, more chronic diseases in wildlife. Understanding when and how variability in pathogen transmission should be modelled is a crucial next step for disease ecology.     

Disease‐structured N‐mixture models: A practical guide to model disease dynamics using count data

Obtaining inferences on disease dynamics (e.g., host population size, pathogen prevalence, transmission rate, host survival probability) typically requires marking and tracking individuals over time. While multistate mark–recapture models can produce high‐quality inference, these techniques are difficult to employ at large spatial and long temporal scales or in small remnant host populations decimated by virulent pathogens, where low recapture rates may preclude the use of mark–recapture techniques. Recently developed N‐mixture models offer a statistical framework for estimating wildlife disease dynamics from count data. N‐mixture models are a type of state‐space model in which observation error is attributed to failing to detect some individuals when they are present (i.e., false negatives). The analysis approach uses repeated surveys of sites over a period of population closure to estimate detection probability. We review the challenges of modeling disease dynamics and describe how N‐mixture models can be used to estimate common metrics, including pathogen prevalence, transmission, and recovery rates while accounting for imperfect host and pathogen detection. We also offer a perspective on future research directions at the intersection of quantitative and disease ecology, including the estimation of false positives in pathogen presence, spatially explicit disease‐structured N‐mixture models, and the integration of other data types with count data to inform disease dynamics. Managers rely on accurate and precise estimates of disease dynamics to develop strategies to mitigate pathogen impacts on host populations. At a time when pathogens pose one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, statistical methods that lead to robust inferences on host populations are critically needed for rapid, rather than incremental, assessments of the impacts of emerging infectious diseases.     

Elucidating cryptic dynamics of Theileria communities in African buffalo using a high‐throughput sequencing informatics approach

1. Increasing access to next‐generation sequencing (NGS) technologies is revolutionizing the life sciences. In disease ecology, NGS‐based methods have the potential to provide higher‐resolution data on communities of parasites found in individual hosts as well as host populations.
2. Here, we demonstrate how a novel analytical method, utilizing high‐throughput sequencing of PCR amplicons, can be used to explore variation in blood‐borne parasite (Theileria—Apicomplexa: Piroplasmida) communities of African buffalo at higher resolutions than has been obtained with conventional molecular tools.
3. Results reveal temporal patterns of synchronized and opposite fluctuations of prevalence and relative abundance of Theileria spp. within the host population, suggesting heterogeneous transmission across taxa. Furthermore, we show that the community composition of Theileria spp. and their subtypes varies considerably between buffalo, with differences in composition reflected in mean and variance of overall parasitemia, thereby showing potential to elucidate previously unexplained contrasts in infection outcomes for host individuals.
4. Importantly, our methods are generalizable as they can be utilized to describe blood‐borne parasite communities in any host species. Furthermore, our methodological framework can be adapted to any parasite system given the appropriate genetic marker.
5. The findings of this study demonstrate how a novel NGS‐based analytical approach can provide fine‐scale, quantitative data, unlocking opportunities for discovery in disease ecology.

     

Context-dependent symbioses and their potential roles in wildlife diseases

It is well known in ecology, evolution and medicine that both the nature (commensal, parasitic and mutualistic) and outcome (symbiont fitness, survival) of symbiotic interactions are often context-dependent. Less is known about the importance of context-dependence in symbioses involved in wildlife disease. We review variable symbioses, and use the amphibian disease chytridiomycosis to demonstrate how understanding context-dependence can improve the understanding and management of wildlife diseases. In chytridiomycosis, the host-pathogen interaction is context-dependent; it is strongly affected by environmental temperature. Skin bacteria can also modify the interaction; some bacteria reduce amphibians' susceptibility to chytridiomycosis. Augmentation of protective microbes is being considered as a possible management tool, but informed application of bioaugmentation requires understanding of how the interactions between host, beneficial bacteria and pathogen depend upon environmental context. The community-level response of the amphibian skin microbiota to environmental conditions may explain the relatively narrow range of environmental conditions in which past declines have occurred. Environmental context affects virulence and the protection provided by mutualists in other host-pathogen systems, including threatened bats and corals. Increased focus on context-dependence in interactions between wildlife and their symbionts is likely to be crucial to the future investigation and management of emerging diseases of wildlife.     

Adult blood-feeding tsetse flies,trypanosomes, microbiota and the fluctuating environment in sub-Saharan Africa

The tsetse fly vector transmits the protozoan Trypanosoma brucei, responsible for Human African Trypanosomiasis, one of the most neglected tropical diseases. Despite a recent decline in new cases, it is still crucial to develop alternative strategies to combat this disease. Here, we review the literature on the factors that influence trypanosome transmission from the fly vector to its vertebrate host (particularly humans). These factors include climate change effects to pathogen and vector development (in particular climate warming), as well as the distribution of host reservoirs. Finally, we present reports on the relationships between insect vector nutrition, immune function, microbiota and infection, to demonstrate how continuing research on the evolving ecology of these complex systems will help improve control strategies. In the future, such studies will be of increasing importance to understand how vector-borne diseases are spread in a changing world.     

Infectious disease and amphibian population declines

Abstract. A series of recent papers have implicated pathogens and parasites in amphibian population declines. Here, we review evidence on the link between infectious disease and amphibian population declines. We conclude that available data provide the clearest link for the fungal disease amphibian chytridiomycosis, although other pathogens are also implicated. We suggest additional experimental and observational data that need to be collected to provide further support that these other pathogens are associated with declines. We suggest that, in common with many emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) of humans, domestic animals and other wildlife species, emergence of chytridiomycosis may be driven by anthropogenic introduction (pathogen pollution). Finally, we review a number of recent advances in the host–parasite ecology of chytridiomycosis that help explain its emergence and impact.     

Demography,education, and research trends in the interdisciplinary field of disease ecology

Micro‐ and macroparasites are a leading cause of mortality for humans, animals, and plants, and there is great need to understand their origins, transmission dynamics, and impacts. Disease ecology formed as an interdisciplinary field in the 1970s to fill this need and has recently rapidly grown in size and influence. Because interdisciplinary fields integrate diverse scientific expertise and training experiences, understanding their composition and research priorities is often difficult. Here, for the first time, we quantify the composition and educational experiences of a subset of disease ecology practitioners and identify topical trends in published research. We combined a large survey of self‐declared disease ecologists with a literature synthesis involving machine‐learning topic detection of over 18,500 disease ecology research articles. The number of graduate degrees earned by disease ecology practitioners has grown dramatically since the early 2000s. Similar to other science fields, we show that practitioners in disease ecology have diversified in the last decade in terms of gender identity and institution, with weaker diversification in race and ethnicity. Topic detection analysis revealed how the frequency of publications on certain topics has declined (e.g., HIV, serology), increased (e.g., the dilution effect, infectious disease in bats), remained relatively common (e.g., malaria ecology, influenza, vaccine research and development), or have consistently remained relatively infrequent (e.g., theoretical models, field experiments). Other topics, such as climate change, superspreading, emerging infectious diseases, and network analyses, have recently come to prominence. This study helps identify the major themes of disease ecology and demonstrates how publication frequency corresponds to emergent health and environmental threats. More broadly, our approach provides a framework to examine the composition and publication trends of other major research fields that cross traditional disciplinary boundaries.     

Contrasting landscape epidemiology of two sympatric rabies virus strains

Viral strain evolution and disease emergence are influenced by anthropogenic change to the environment. We investigated viral characteristics, host ecology, and landscape features in the rabies‐striped skunk disease system of the central Great Plains to determine how these factors interact to influence disease emergence. We amplified portions of the N and G genes of rabies viral RNA from 269 samples extracted from striped skunk brains throughout the distribution of two different rabies strains for which striped skunks were the reservoir. Because the distribution of these two strains overlapped on the landscape and were present in the same host population, we could evaluate how viral properties influenced epidemiological patterns in the area of sympatry. We found that South Central Skunk rabies (SCSK) exhibited intense purifying selection and high infectivity, which are both characteristics of an epizootic virus. Conversely, North Central Skunk rabies (NCSK) exhibited relaxed purifying selection and comparatively lower infectivity, suggesting the presence of an enzootic virus. The host population in the area of sympatry was highly admixed, and skunks among allopatric and sympatric areas had similar effective population sizes. Spatial analysis indicated that landscape features had minimal influence on NCSK movement across the landscape, but those same features were partial barriers to the spread of SCSK. We conclude that NCSK and SCSK have different epidemiological properties that interact differently with both host and landscape features to influence rabies spread in the central Great Plains. We suggest a holistic approach for future studies of emerging infectious diseases that includes studies of viral properties, host characteristics, and spatial features.