Too much of a good thing: resource provisioning alters infectious disease dynamics in wildlife

Provisioning of abundant food resources in human-altered landscapes can have profound effects on wildlife ecology, with important implications for pathogen transmission. While empirical studies have quantified the effects of provisioning on host behaviour and immunology, the net interactive effect of these components on host–pathogen dynamics is unknown. We use simple compartmental models to investigate how provisioning-induced changes to host demography, contact behaviour and immune defence influence pathogen invasion and persistence. We show that pathogen invasion success and equilibrium prevalence depend critically on how provisioning affects host immune defence and that moderate levels of provisioning can lead to drastically different outcomes of pathogen extinction or maximizing prevalence. These results highlight the need for further empirical studies to fully understand how provisioning affects pathogen transmission in urbanized environments.     

Heterogeneity in patch quality buffers metapopulations from pathogen impacts

Many wildlife species persist on a network of ephemerally occupied habitat patches connected by dispersal. Provisioning of food and other resources for conservation management or recreation is frequently used to improve local habitat quality and attract wildlife. Resource improvement can also facilitate local pathogen transmission, but the landscape-level consequences of provisioning for pathogen spread and habitat occupancy are poorly understood. Here, we develop a simple metapopulation model to investigate how heterogeneity in patch quality resulting from resource improvement influences long-term metapopulation occupancy in the presence of a virulent pathogen. We derive expressions for equilibrium host–pathogen outcomes in terms of provisioning effects on individual patches (through decreased patch extinction rates) and at the landscape level (the fraction of high-quality, provisioned patches), and highlight two cases of practical concern. First, if occupancy in the unprovisioned metapopulation is sufficiently low, a local maximum in occupancy occurs for mixtures of high- and low-quality patches, such that further increasing the number of high-quality patches both lowers occupancy and allows pathogen invasion. Second, if the pathogen persists in the unprovisioned metapopulation, further provisioning can result in all patches becoming infected and in a global minimum in occupancy. This work highlights the need for more empirical research on landscape-level impacts of local resource provisioning on pathogen dynamics.     

Habitat fragmentation is associated with dietary shifts and microbiota variability in common vampire bats

Host ecological factors and external environmental factors are known to influence the structure of gut microbial communities, but few studies have examined the impacts of environmental changes on microbiotas in free‐ranging animals. Rapid land‐use change has the potential to shift gut microbial communities in wildlife through exposure to novel bacteria and/or by changing the availability or quality of local food resources. The consequences of such changes to host health and fitness remain unknown and may have important implications for pathogen spillover between humans and wildlife. To better understand the consequences of land‐use change on wildlife microbiotas, we analyzed long‐term dietary trends, gut microbiota composition, and innate immune function in common vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus) in two nearby sites in Belize that vary in landscape structure. We found that vampire bats living in a small forest fragment had more homogenous diets indicative of feeding on livestock and shifts in microbiota heterogeneity, but not overall composition, compared to those living in an intact forest reserve. We also found that irrespective of sampling site, vampire bats which consumed relatively more livestock showed shifts in some core bacteria compared with vampire bats which consumed relatively less livestock. The relative abundance of some core microbiota members was associated with innate immune function, suggesting that future research should consider the role of the host microbiota in immune defense and its relationship to zoonotic infection dynamics. We suggest that subsequent homogenization of diet and habitat loss through livestock rearing in the Neotropics may lead to disruption to the microbiota that could have downstream impacts on host immunity and cross‐species pathogen transmission.     

Effects of resource availability and social aggregation on the species richness of raccoon endoparasite infracommunities

Within populations the contact rate of hosts and infectious parasites is mediated by the interactions of resource availability, host density, and host behavior. Fluctuations in host density can result in the loss or extinction of a parasite population as contact rates between parasites and susceptible individuals drop below thresholds of parasite population persistence. Less understood is how changes in resources and the behavioral ecology of host populations affect parasites. We used food provisioning to experimentally assess the effects of resource availability and of inducing host aggregation on the endoparasite community of free‐ranging raccoons. Twelve independent raccoon populations were subjected to differential resource provisioning for two years: a clumped food distribution to aggregate hosts (n = 5 populations), a dispersed food distribution to add food without aggregating hosts (n = 3), and a no food treatment (n = 4). Remote cameras indicated that aggregation sizes were three to four times greater in aggregated versus non‐aggregated populations. We considered endoparasites with direct and indirect life cycles separately and determined the best‐fit models of parasite species richness in relation to host aggregation, food supplements, and host age and sex. Social aggregation had a negligible impact on the species richness of directly or indirectly transmitted parasites. However, food additions decreased the number of indirectly transmitted parasite species by 35% in the oldest age classes. These results suggest that while resource availability can influence the transmission of indirectly transmitted parasites, an examination of additional factors will be necessary to understand the role of host contact and factors that shape the community structure of endoparasites in natural environments.     

Seasonality and wildlife disease: how seasonal birth, aggregation and variation in immunity affect the dynamics of Mycoplasma gallisepticum in house finches

We examine the role of host seasonal breeding, host seasonal social aggregation and partial immunity in affecting wildlife disease dynamics, focusing on the dynamics of house finch conjunctivitis (Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG) in Carpodacus mexicanus). This case study of an unmanaged emerging infectious disease provides useful insight into the important role of seasonal factors in driving ongoing disease dynamics. Seasonal breeding can force recurrent epidemics through the input of fresh susceptibles, which will clearly affect a wide variety of wildlife disease dynamics. Seasonal patterns of social aggregation and foraging behaviour could change transmission dynamics. We use latitudinal variation in the timing of breeding, and social systems to model seasonal dynamics of house finch conjunctivitis across eastern North America. We quantify the patterns of seasonal breeding, and social aggregation across a latitudinal gradient in the eastern range of the house finch, supplemented with known field and laboratory information on immunity to MG in finches. We then examine the interactions of these factors in a theoretical model of disease dynamics. We find that both forms of seasonality could explain the dynamics of the house finch-MG system, and that these factors could have important effects on the dynamics of wildlife diseases generally. In particular, while either alone is sufficient to create recurrent cycles of prevalence in a population with an endemic disease, both are required to produce the specific semi-annual pattern of disease prevalence seen in the house finch conjunctivitis system.     

Resistance,tolerance and environmental transmission dynamics determine host extinction risk in a load‐dependent amphibian disease

While disease‐induced extinction is generally considered rare, a number of recently emerging infectious diseases with load‐dependent pathology have led to extinction in wildlife populations. Transmission is a critical factor affecting disease‐induced extinction, but the relative importance of transmission compared to load‐dependent host resistance and tolerance is currently unknown. Using a combination of models and experiments on an amphibian species suffering extirpations from the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), we show that while transmission from an environmental Bd reservoir increased the ability of Bd to invade an amphibian population and the extinction risk of that population, Bd‐induced extinction dynamics were far more sensitive to host resistance and tolerance than to Bd transmission. We demonstrate that this is a general result for load‐dependent pathogens, where non‐linear resistance and tolerance functions can interact such that small changes in these functions lead to drastic changes in extinction dynamics.     

Effects of pesticides on exposure and susceptibility to parasites can be generalised to pesticide class and type in aquatic communities

Pesticide pollution can alter parasite transmission, but scientists are unaware if effects of pesticides on parasite exposure and host susceptibility (i.e. infection risk given exposure) can be generalised within a community context. Using replicated temperate pond communities, we evaluate effects of 12 pesticides, nested in four pesticide classes (chloroacetanilides, triazines, carbamates organophosphates) and two pesticide types (herbicides, insecticides) applied at standardised environmental concentrations on larval amphibian exposure and susceptibility to trematode parasites. Most of the variation in exposure and susceptibility occurred at the level of pesticide class and type, not individual compounds. The organophosphate class of insecticides increased snail abundance (first intermediate host) and thus trematode exposure by increasing mortality of snail predators (top–down mechanism). While a similar pattern in snail abundance and trematode exposure was observed with triazine herbicides, this effect was driven by increases in snail resources (periphytic algae, bottom–up mechanism). Additionally, herbicides indirectly increased host susceptibility and trematode infections by (1) increasing time spent in susceptible early developmental stages and (2) suppressing tadpole immunity. Understanding generalisable effects associated with contaminant class and type on transmission is critical in reducing complexities in predicting disease dynamics in at‐risk host populations.     

Going through the motions: incorporating movement analyses into disease research

Though epidemiology dates back to the 1700s, most mathematical representations of epidemics still use transmission rates averaged at the population scale, especially for wildlife diseases. In simplifying the contact process, we ignore the heterogeneities in host movements that complicate the real world, and overlook their impact on spatiotemporal patterns of disease burden. Movement ecology offers a set of tools that help unpack the transmission process, letting researchers more accurately model how animals within a population interact and spread pathogens. Analytical techniques from this growing field can also help expose the reverse process: how infection impacts movement behaviours, and therefore other ecological processes like feeding, reproduction, and dispersal. Here, we synthesise the contributions of movement ecology in disease research, with a particular focus on studies that have successfully used movement‐based methods to quantify individual heterogeneity in exposure and transmission risk. Throughout, we highlight the rapid growth of both disease and movement ecology and comment on promising but unexplored avenues for research at their overlap. Ultimately, we suggest, including movement empowers ecologists to pose new questions, expanding our understanding of host–pathogen dynamics and improving our predictive capacity for wildlife and even human diseases.     

Landscape-level toxicant exposure mediates infection impacts on wildlife populations

Anthropogenic landscape modification such as urbanization can expose wildlife to toxicants, with profound behavioural and health effects. Toxicant exposure can alter the local transmission of wildlife diseases by reducing survival or altering immune defence. However, predicting the impacts of pathogens on wildlife across their ranges is complicated by heterogeneity in toxicant exposure across the landscape, especially if toxicants alter wildlife movement from toxicant-contaminated to uncontaminated habitats. We developed a mechanistic model to explore how toxicant effects on host health and movement propensity influence range-wide pathogen transmission, and zoonotic exposure risk, as an increasing fraction of the landscape is toxicant-contaminated. When toxicant-contaminated habitat is scarce on the landscape, costs to movement and survival from toxicant exposure can trap infected animals in contaminated habitat and reduce landscape-level transmission. Increasing the proportion of contaminated habitat causes host population declines from combined effects of toxicants and infection. The onset of host declines precedes an increase in the density of infected hosts in contaminated habitat and thus may serve as an early warning of increasing potential for zoonotic spillover in urbanizing landscapes. These results highlight how sublethal effects of toxicants can determine pathogen impacts on wildlife populations that may not manifest until landscape contamination is widespread.     

Host resistance and tolerance of parasitic gut worms depend on resource availability

Resource availability can significantly alter host–parasite dynamics. Abundant food can provide more resources for hosts to resist infections, but also increase host tolerance of infections by reducing competition between hosts and parasites for food. Whether abundant food favors host resistance or tolerance (or both) might depend on the type of resource that the parasite exploits (e.g., host tissue vs. food), which can vary based on the stage of infection. In our study, we evaluated how low and high resource diets affect Cuban tree frog (Osteopilus septentrionalis) resistance and tolerance of a skin-penetrating, gut nematode Aplectana sp. at each stage of the infection. Compared to a low resource diet, a high resource diet enhanced frog resistance to worm penetration and tolerance while worms traveled to the gut. In contrast, a low resource diet increased resistance to establishment of the infection. After the infection established and worms could access food resources in the gut, a high resource diet enhanced host tolerance of parasites. On a high resource diet, parasitized frogs consumed significantly more food than non-parasitized frogs; when food was then restricted, mass of non-parasitized frogs did not change, whereas mass of parasitized frogs decreased significantly. Thus, a high resource diet increased frog tolerance of established worms because frogs could fully compensate for energy lost to the parasites. Our study shows that host–parasite dynamics are influenced by the effect of resource availability on host resistance and tolerance, which depends on when parasites have access to food and the stage of infection.     

Bottom‐up regulation of malaria population dynamics in mice co‐infected with lung‐migratory nematodes

When and how populations are regulated by bottom up vs. top down processes, and how those processes are affected by co‐occurring species, are poorly characterised across much of ecology. We are especially interested in the community ecology of parasites that must share a host. Here, we quantify how resources and immunity affect parasite propagation in experiments in near‐replicate ‘mesocosms’’ – i.e. mice infected with malaria (Plasmodium chabaudi) and nematodes (Nippostrongylus brasiliensis). Nematodes suppressed immune responses against malaria, and yet malaria populations were smaller in co‐infected hosts. Further analyses of within‐host epidemiology revealed that nematode co‐infection altered malaria propagation by suppressing target cell availability. This is the first demonstration that bottom‐up resource regulation may have earlier and stronger effects than top‐down immune mechanisms on within‐host community dynamics. Our findings demonstrate the potential power of experimental ecology to disentangle mechanisms of population regulation in complex communities.     

Deposition of pathogenic Mycoplasma gallisepticum onto bird feeders: host pathology is more important than temperature-driven increases in food intake

Although ambient temperature has diverse effects on disease dynamics, few studies have examined how temperature alters pathogen transmission by changing host physiology or behaviour. Here, we test whether reducing ambient temperature alters host foraging, pathology and the potential for fomite transmission of the bacterial pathogen Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG), which causes seasonal outbreaks of severe conjunctivitis in house finches (Haemorhous mexicanus). We housed finches at temperatures within or below the thermoneutral zone to manipulate food intake by altering energetic requirements of thermoregulation. We predicted that pathogen deposition on bird feeders would increase with temperature-driven increases in food intake and with conjunctival pathology. As expected, housing birds below the thermoneutral zone increased food consumption. Despite this difference, pathogen deposition on feeders did not vary across temperature treatments. However, pathogen deposition increased with conjunctival pathology, independently of temperature and pathogen load, suggesting that MG could enhance its transmission by increasing virulence. Our results suggest that in this system, host physiological responses are more important for transmission potential than temperature-dependent alterations in feeding. Understanding such behavioural and physiological contributions to disease transmission is critical to linking individual responses to climate with population-level disease dynamics.     

Mechanisms underlying host persistence following amphibian disease emergence determine appropriate management strategies

Emerging infectious diseases have caused many species declines, changes in communities and even extinctions. There are also many species that persist following devastating declines due to disease. The broad mechanisms that enable host persistence following declines include evolution of resistance or tolerance, changes in immunity and behaviour, compensatory recruitment, pathogen attenuation, environmental refugia, density‐dependent transmission and changes in community composition. Here we examine the case of chytridiomycosis, the most important wildlife disease of the past century. We review the full breadth of mechanisms allowing host persistence, and synthesise research on host, pathogen, environmental and community factors driving persistence following chytridiomycosis‐related declines and overview the current evidence and the information required to support each mechanism. We found that for most species the mechanisms facilitating persistence have not been identified. We illustrate how the mechanisms that drive long‐term host population dynamics determine the most effective conservation management strategies. Therefore, understanding mechanisms of host persistence is important because many species continue to be threatened by disease, some of which will require intervention. The conceptual framework we describe is broadly applicable to other novel disease systems.     

Disease‐structured N‐mixture models: A practical guide to model disease dynamics using count data

Obtaining inferences on disease dynamics (e.g., host population size, pathogen prevalence, transmission rate, host survival probability) typically requires marking and tracking individuals over time. While multistate mark–recapture models can produce high‐quality inference, these techniques are difficult to employ at large spatial and long temporal scales or in small remnant host populations decimated by virulent pathogens, where low recapture rates may preclude the use of mark–recapture techniques. Recently developed N‐mixture models offer a statistical framework for estimating wildlife disease dynamics from count data. N‐mixture models are a type of state‐space model in which observation error is attributed to failing to detect some individuals when they are present (i.e., false negatives). The analysis approach uses repeated surveys of sites over a period of population closure to estimate detection probability. We review the challenges of modeling disease dynamics and describe how N‐mixture models can be used to estimate common metrics, including pathogen prevalence, transmission, and recovery rates while accounting for imperfect host and pathogen detection. We also offer a perspective on future research directions at the intersection of quantitative and disease ecology, including the estimation of false positives in pathogen presence, spatially explicit disease‐structured N‐mixture models, and the integration of other data types with count data to inform disease dynamics. Managers rely on accurate and precise estimates of disease dynamics to develop strategies to mitigate pathogen impacts on host populations. At a time when pathogens pose one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, statistical methods that lead to robust inferences on host populations are critically needed for rapid, rather than incremental, assessments of the impacts of emerging infectious diseases.     

Food provisioning alters infection dynamics in populations of a wild rodent

While pathogens are often assumed to limit the growth of wildlife populations, experimental evidence for their effects is rare. A lack of food resources has been suggested to enhance the negative effects of pathogen infection on host populations, but this theory has received little investigation. We conducted a replicated two-factor enclosure experiment, with introduction of the bacterium Bordetella bronchiseptica and food supplementation, to evaluate the individual and interactive effects of pathogen infection and food availability on vole populations during a boreal winter. We show that prior to bacteria introduction, vole populations were limited by food availability. Bordetella bronchiseptica introduction then reduced population growth and abundance, but contrary to predictions, primarily in food supplemented populations. Infection prevalence and pathological changes in vole lungs were most common in food supplemented populations, and are likely to have resulted from increased congregation and bacteria transmission around feeding stations. Bordetella bronchiseptica-infected lungs often showed protozoan co-infection (consistent with Hepatozoon erhardovae), together with more severe inflammatory changes. Using a multidisciplinary approach, this study demonstrates a complex picture of interactions and underlying mechanisms, leading to population-level effects. Our results highlight the potential for food provisioning to markedly influence disease processes in wildlife mammal populations.     

Interactions between host sex and age of exposure modify the virulence–transmission trade‐off

The patterns of immunity conferred by host sex or age represent two sources of host heterogeneity that can potentially shape the evolutionary trajectory of disease. With each host sex or age encountered, a pathogen's optimal exploitative strategy may change, leading to considerable variation in expression of pathogen transmission and virulence. To date, these host characteristics have been studied in the context of host fitness alone, overlooking the effects of host sex and age on the fundamental virulence–transmission trade‐off faced by pathogens. Here, we explicitly address the interaction of these characteristics and find that host sex and age at exposure to a pathogen affect age‐specific patterns of mortality and the balance between pathogen transmission and virulence. When infecting age‐structured male and female Daphnia magna with different genotypes of Pasteuria ramosa, we found that infection increased mortality rates across all age classes for females, whereas mortality only increased in the earliest age class for males. Female hosts allowed a variety of trade‐offs between transmission and virulence to arise with each age and pathogen genotype. In contrast, this variation was dampened in males, with pathogens exhibiting declines in both virulence and transmission with increasing host age. Our results suggest that differences in exploitation potential of males and females to a pathogen can interact with host age to allow different virulence strategies to coexist, and illustrate the potential for these widespread sources of host heterogeneity to direct the evolution of disease in natural populations.     

Competing for blood: the ecology of parasite resource competition in human malaria–helminth co‐infections

Ecological theory suggests that co‐infecting parasite species can interact within hosts directly, via host immunity and/or via resource competition. In mice, competition for red blood cells (RBCs) between malaria and bloodsucking helminths can regulate malaria population dynamics, but the importance of RBC competition in human hosts was unknown. We analysed infection density (i.e. the concentration of parasites in infected hosts), from a 2‐year deworming study of over 4000 human subjects. After accounting for resource‐use differences among parasites, we find evidence of resource competition, priority effects and a competitive hierarchy within co‐infected individuals. For example reducing competition via deworming increased Plasmodium vivax densities 2.8‐fold, and this effect is limited to bloodsucking hookworms. Our ecological, resource‐based perspective sheds new light into decades of conflicting outcomes of malaria–helminth co‐infection studies with significant health and transmission consequences. Beyond blood, investigating within‐human resource competition may bring new insights for improving human health.     

Niche‐based host extinction increases prevalence of an environmentally acquired pathogen

Understanding the ecology of environmentally acquired and multi‐host pathogens affecting humans and wildlife has been elusive in part because fluctuations in the abundance of host and pathogen species may feed back onto pathogen transmission. Complexity of pathogen‐host dynamics emerges from processes driving local extinction of the pathogen, its hosts and non‐hosts. While the extinction of species may entail losses in pathogen–host interactions and decrease the proportion of hosts infected by a pathogen (prevalence), some studies suggest the opposite pattern. Niche‐based extinction, based on the species tolerance to environmental conditions, may increase prevalence of infection because the pathogen and its hosts persist, while other species go extinct. Hence, understanding prevalence of infection requires disentangling random‐ and niche‐based extinction processes occurring simultaneously. To contribute to this exercise, we analysed the prevalence of an environmentally acquired, multi‐host pathogen, Mycobacterium ulcerans (MU), in a unique dataset of 16 communities of freshwater animals, surveyed during 12 months in Akonolinga, Cameroon in equatorial Africa. Two different ecosystems were identified: rivers (lotic) and swamps and flooded areas (lentic). Increased prevalence of MU infection was correlated with niche‐based extinction of aquatic host invertebrates and vertebrates in the lentic ecosystems, whereas decreased prevalence was associated with random disassembly of the lotic ecosystems. This finding suggests that random and niche‐based extinction of host taxa are key to assessing the effect of local extinction of species on the ecology of environmentally acquired and multi‐host pathogens.     

Wildlife disease prevalence in human‐modified landscapes

Human‐induced landscape change associated with habitat loss and fragmentation places wildlife populations at risk. One issue in these landscapes is a change in the prevalence of disease which may result in increased mortality and reduced fecundity. Our understanding of the influence of habitat loss and fragmentation on the prevalence of wildlife diseases is still in its infancy. What is evident is that changes in disease prevalence as a result of human‐induced landscape modification are highly variable. The importance of infectious diseases for the conservation of wildlife will increase as the amount and quality of suitable habitat decreases due to human land‐use pressures. We review the experimental and observational literature of the influence of human‐induced landscape change on wildlife disease prevalence, and discuss disease transmission types and host responses as mechanisms that are likely to determine the extent of change in disease prevalence. It is likely that transmission dynamics will be the key process in determining a pathogen's impact on a host population, while the host response may ultimately determine the extent of disease prevalence. Finally, we conceptualize mechanisms and identify future research directions to increase our understanding of the relationship between human‐modified landscapes and wildlife disease prevalence. This review highlights that there are rarely consistent relationships between wildlife diseases and human‐modified landscapes. In addition, variation is evident between transmission types and landscape types, with the greatest positive influence on disease prevalence being in urban landscapes and directly transmitted disease systems. While we have a limited understanding of the potential influence of habitat loss and fragmentation on wildlife disease, there are a number of important areas to address in future research, particularly to account for the variability in increased and decreased disease prevalence. Previous studies have been based on a one‐dimensional comparison between unmodified and modified sites. What is lacking are spatially and temporally explicit quantitative approaches which are required to enable an understanding of the range of key causal mechanisms and the reasons for variability. This is particularly important for replicated studies across different host‐pathogen systems. Furthermore, there are few studies that have attempted to separate the independent effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on wildlife disease, which are the major determinants of wildlife population dynamics in human‐modified landscapes. There is an urgent need to understand better the potential causal links between the processes of human‐induced landscape change and the associated influences of habitat fragmentation, matrix hostility and loss of connectivity on an animal's physiological stress, immune response and disease susceptibility. This review identified no study that had assessed the influence of human‐induced landscape change on the prevalence of a wildlife sexually transmitted disease. A better understanding of the various mechanisms linking human‐induced landscape change and the prevalence of wildlife disease will lead to more successful conservation management outcomes.     

The role of breeding phenology and aggregation of waterfowl on avian influenza dynamics in southern Africa

Recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (AIV) in birds, humans and other mammalian species calls for a better understanding of virus dynamics in wild bird species and populations that act as maintenance hosts. Host ecology influences the transmission of pathogens and can be used to explore and infer pathogen dynamics. Most of the ecological processes proposed to explain AIV transmission in wild birds have been derived from studies conducted in the temperate and boreal regions of the northern hemisphere. We evaluate the role of two key drivers of AIV dynamics in a waterfowl community in Zimbabwe (southern Africa): (1) the recruitment of young birds and (2) the seasonal aggregation of birds. We analyse the seasonal variation of AIV prevalence in waterfowl and overlay these data with the phenology of reproduction and the seasonal variation in the local abundance of these species. We find that the breeding period of southern Afrotropical waterfowl species is more extended and somewhat less synchronized among species in the community than is the case in temperate and boreal waterfowl communities. Young birds are recorded at most times of the year, and these immunologically naïve individuals can therefore act as new hosts for AIV throughout the year within the wild bird population. Although host aggregation peaks in the cold‐dry to hot‐dry season, birds still aggregate throughout the year and this potentially spreads the opportunities for first infection of juveniles and other naïve birds temporally. We did not find a relationship between season, AIV prevalence in waterfowl, the influx of juveniles or the gradual aggregation of birds during the dry season. Therefore, the main drivers of AIV dynamics (juvenile influx and host abundance/aggregation), although present in Afrotropical regions, could not explain the AIV seasonal patterns in our study in contrast to results reported from temperate and boreal regions. These differences imply variation in the risk of AIV circulation in waterfowl and in the risk of spread to poultry, other animals or humans.