Impacts of thermal mismatches on chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis prevalence are moderated by life stage,body size,elevation and latitude

Global climate change is increasing the frequency of unpredictable weather conditions; however, it remains unclear how species‐level and geographic factors, including body size and latitude, moderate impacts of unusually warm or cool temperatures on disease. Because larger and lower‐latitude hosts generally have slower acclimation times than smaller and higher‐latitude hosts, we hypothesised that their disease susceptibility increases under ‘thermal mismatches’ or differences between baseline climate and the temperature during surveying for disease. Here, we examined how thermal mismatches interact with body size, life stage, habitat, latitude, elevation, phylogeny and International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) conservation status to predict infection prevalence of the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) in a global analysis of 32 291 amphibian hosts. As hypothesised, we found that the susceptibility of larger hosts and hosts from lower latitudes to Bd was influenced by thermal mismatches. Furthermore, hosts of conservation concern were more susceptible than others following thermal mismatches, suggesting that thermal mismatches might have contributed to recent amphibian declines.     

Seasonal dietary shifts enhance parasite transmission to lake salmonids during ice cover

Changes in abiotic and biotic factors between seasons in subarctic lake systems are often profound, potentially affecting the community structure and population dynamics of parasites over the annual cycle. However, few winter studies exist and interactions between fish hosts and their parasites are typically confined to snapshot studies restricted to the summer season whereas host‐parasite dynamics during the ice‐covered period rarely have been explored. The present study addresses seasonal patterns in the infections of intestinal parasites and their association with the diet of sympatric living Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus) and brown trout (Salmo trutta) in Lake Takvatn, a subarctic lake in northern Norway. In total, 354 Arctic charr and 203 brown trout were sampled from the littoral habitat between June 2017 and May 2018. Six trophically transmitted intestinal parasite taxa were identified and quantified, and their seasonal variations were contrasted with dietary information from both stomachs and intestines of the fish. The winter period proved to be an important transmission window for parasites, with increased prevalence and intensity of amphipod‐transmitted parasites in Arctic charr and parasites transmitted through fish prey in brown trout. In Arctic charr, seasonal patterns in parasite infections resulted mainly from temporal changes in diet toward amphipods, whereas host body size and the utilization of fish prey were the main drivers in brown trout. The overall dynamics in the community structure of parasites chiefly mirrored the seasonal dietary shifts of their fish hosts.     

Identifying refugia from climate change using coupled ecological and genetic data in a transitional Mediterranean‐temperate tree species

Populations occurring in areas of overlap between the current and future distribution of a species are particularly important because they can represent “refugia from climate change”. We coupled ecological and range‐wide genetic variation data to detect such areas and to evaluate the impacts of habitat suitability changes on the genetic diversity of the transitional Mediterranean‐temperate tree Fraxinus angustifolia. We sampled and genotyped 38 natural populations comprising 1006 individuals from across Europe. We found the highest genetic diversity in western and northern Mediterranean populations, as well as a significant west to east decline in genetic diversity. Areas of potential refugia that correspond to approximately 70% of the suitable habitat may support the persistence of more than 90% of the total number of alleles in the future. Moreover, based on correlations between Bayesian genetic assignment and climate, climate change may favour the westward spread of the Black Sea gene pool in the long term. Overall, our results suggest that the northerly core areas of the current distribution contain the most important part of the genetic variation for this species and may serve as in situ macrorefugia from ongoing climate change. However, rear‐edge populations of the southern Mediterranean may be exposed to a potential loss of unique genetic diversity owing to habitat suitability changes unless populations can persist in microrefugia that have facilitated such persistence in the past.     

Host species,and not environment,predicts variation in blood parasite prevalence,distribution, and diversity along a humidity gradient in northern South America

Environmental factors strongly influence the ecology and evolution of vector‐borne infectious diseases. However, our understanding of the influence of climatic variation on host–parasite interactions in tropical systems is rudimentary. We studied five species of birds and their haemosporidian parasites (Plasmodium and Haemoproteus) at 16 sampling sites to understand how environmental heterogeneity influences patterns of parasite prevalence, distribution, and diversity across a marked gradient in water availability in northern South America. We used molecular methods to screen for parasite infections and to identify parasite lineages. To characterize spatial heterogeneity in water availability, we used weather‐station and remotely sensed climate data. We estimated parasite prevalence while accounting for spatial autocorrelation, and used a model selection approach to determine the effect of variables related to water availability and host species on prevalence. The prevalence, distribution, and lineage diversity of haemosporidian parasites varied among localities and host species, but we found no support for the hypothesis that the prevalence and diversity of parasites increase with increasing water availability. Host species and host × climate interactions had stronger effects on infection prevalence, and parasite lineages were strongly associated with particular host species. Because climatic variables had little effect on the overall prevalence and lineage diversity of haemosporidian parasites across study sites, our results suggest that independent host–parasite dynamics may influence patterns in parasitism in environmentally heterogeneous landscapes.     

Global warming will reshuffle the areas of high prevalence and richness of three genera of avian blood parasites

The importance of parasitism for host populations depends on local parasite richness and prevalence: usually host individuals face higher infection risk in areas where parasites are most diverse, and host dispersal to or from these areas may have fitness consequences. Knowing how parasites are and will be distributed in space and time (in a context of global change) is thus crucial from both an ecological and a biological conservation perspective. Nevertheless, most research articles focus just on elaborating models of parasite distribution instead of parasite diversity. We produced distribution models of the areas where haemosporidian parasites are currently highly diverse (both at community and at within‐host levels) and prevalent among Iberian populations of a model passerine host: the blackcap Sylvia atricapilla; and how these areas are expected to vary according to three scenarios of climate change. On the basis of these models, we analysed whether variation among populations in parasite richness or prevalence are expected to remain the same or change in the future, thereby reshuffling the geographic mosaic of host‐parasite interactions as we observe it today. Our models predict a rearrangement of areas of high prevalence and richness of parasites in the future, with Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon parasites (today the most diverse genera in blackcaps) losing areas of high diversity and Plasmodium parasites (the most virulent ones) gaining them. Likewise, the prevalence of multiple infections and parasite infracommunity richness would be reduced. Importantly, differences among populations in the prevalence and richness of parasites are expected to decrease in the future, creating a more homogeneous parasitic landscape. This predicts an altered geographic mosaic of host‐parasite relationships, which will modify the interaction arena in which parasite virulence evolves.     

The impact of climate change measured at relevant spatial scales: new hope for tropical lizards

Much attention has been given to recent predictions that widespread extinctions of tropical ectotherms, and tropical forest lizards in particular, will result from anthropogenic climate change. Most of these predictions, however, are based on environmental temperature data measured at a maximum resolution of 1 km², whereas individuals of most species experience thermal variation on a much finer scale. To address this disconnect, we combined thermal performance curves for five populations of Anolis lizard from the Bay Islands of Honduras with high‐resolution temperature distributions generated from physical models. Previous research has suggested that open‐habitat species are likely to invade forest habitat and drive forest species to extinction. We test this hypothesis, and compare the vulnerabilities of closely related, but allopatric, forest species. Our data suggest that the open‐habitat populations we studied will not invade forest habitat and may actually benefit from predicted warming for many decades. Conversely, one of the forest species we studied should experience reduced activity time as a result of warming, while two others are unlikely to experience a significant decline in performance. Our results suggest that global‐scale predictions generated using low‐resolution temperature data may overestimate the vulnerability of many tropical ectotherms to climate change.     

Relationships between survival and habitat suitability of semi‐aquatic mammals

Spatial distribution and habitat selection are integral to the study of animal ecology. Habitat selection may optimize the fitness of individuals. Hutchinsonian niche theory posits the fundamental niche of species would support the persistence or growth of populations. Although niche‐based species distribution models (SDMs) and habitat suitability models (HSMs) such as maximum entropy (Maxent) have demonstrated fair to excellent predictive power, few studies have linked the prediction of HSMs to demographic rates. We aimed to test the prediction of Hutchinsonian niche theory that habitat suitability (i.e., likelihood of occurrence) would be positively related to survival of American beaver (Castor canadensis), a North American semi‐aquatic, herbivorous, habitat generalist. We also tested the prediction of ideal free distribution that animal fitness, or its surrogate, is independent of habitat suitability at the equilibrium. We estimated beaver monthly survival probability using the Barker model and radio telemetry data collected in northern Alabama, United States from January 2011 to April 2012. A habitat suitability map was generated with Maxent for the entire study site using landscape variables derived from the 2011 National Land Cover Database (30‐m resolution). We found an inverse relationship between habitat suitability index and beaver survival, contradicting the predictions of niche theory and ideal free distribution. Furthermore, four landscape variables selected by American beaver did not predict survival. The beaver population on our study site has been established for 20 or more years and, subsequently, may be approaching or have reached the carrying capacity. Maxent‐predicted increases in habitat use and subsequent intraspecific competition may have reduced beaver survival. Habitat suitability‐fitness relationships may be complex and, in part, contingent upon local animal abundance. Future studies of mechanistic SDMs incorporating local abundance and demographic rates are needed.     

Linking community assembly and structure across scales in a wild mouse parasite community

Understanding what processes drive community structure is fundamental to ecology. Many wild animals are simultaneously infected by multiple parasite species, so host–parasite communities can be valuable tools for investigating connections between community structures at multiple scales, as each host can be considered a replicate parasite community. Like free‐living communities, within‐host–parasite communities are hierarchical; ecological interactions between hosts and parasites can occur at multiple scales (e.g., host community, host population, parasite community within the host), therefore, both extrinsic and intrinsic processes can determine parasite community structure. We combine analyses of community structure and assembly at both the host population and individual scales using extensive datasets on wild wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus) and their parasite community. An analysis of parasite community nestedness at the host population scale provided predictions about the order of infection at the individual scale, which were then tested using parasite community assembly data from individual hosts from the same populations. Nestedness analyses revealed parasite communities were significantly more structured than random. However, observed nestedness did not differ from null models in which parasite species abundance was kept constant. We did not find consistency between observed community structure at the host population scale and within‐host order of infection. Multi‐state Markov models of parasite community assembly showed that a host's likelihood of infection with one parasite did not consistently follow previous infection by a different parasite species, suggesting there is not a deterministic order of infection among the species we investigated in wild wood mice. Our results demonstrate that patterns at one scale (i.e., host population) do not reliably predict processes at another scale (i.e., individual host), and that neutral or stochastic processes may be driving the patterns of nestedness observed in these communities. We suggest that experimental approaches that manipulate parasite communities are needed to better link processes at multiple ecological scales.     

Global warming promotes biological invasion of a honey bee pest

Climate change and biological invasions are two major global environmental challenges. Both may interact, e.g. via altered impact and distribution of invasive alien species. Even though invasive species play a key role for compromising the health of honey bees, the impact of climate change on the severity of such species is still unknown. The small hive beetle (SHB, Aethina tumida, Murray) is a parasite of honey bee colonies. It is endemic to sub‐Saharan Africa and has established populations on all continents except Antarctica. Since SHBs pupate in soil, pupation performance is governed foremost by two abiotic factors, soil temperature and moisture, which will be affected by climate change. Here, we investigated SHB invasion risk globally under current and future climate scenarios. We modelled survival and development time during pupation (=pupal performance) in response to soil temperature and soil moisture using published and novel experimental data. Presence data on SHB distribution were used for model validation. We then linked the model with global soil data in order to classify areas (resolution: 10 arcmin; i.e. 18.6 km at the equator) as unsuitable, marginal and suitable for SHB pupation performance. Under the current climate, the results show that many areas globally yet uninvaded are actually suitable, suggesting considerable SHB invasion risk. Future scenarios of global warming project a vehement increase in climatic suitability for SHB and corresponding potential for invasion, especially in the temperate regions of the Northern hemisphere, thereby creating demand for enhanced and adapted mitigation and management. Our analysis shows, for the first time, effects of global warming on a honey bee pest and will help areas at risk to prepare adequately. In conclusion, this is a clear case for global warming promoting biological invasion of a pest species with severe potential to harm important pollinator species globally.     

Potential impacts of a future persistent El Niño or La Niña on three subspecies of Australian butterflies

One of the major uncertainties of 21st century climate change is the potential for shifts to the intensity and frequency of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Although this phenomenon is known to have dramatic impacts on ecosystems regionally and globally, the biological consequences of climate change‐driven shifts in future ENSO events have been unexplored. Here, we investigate the potential impacts that a persistent El Niño, La Niña, or ‘Neutral' phase may have on species distributions. Using MaxEnt, we model the distribution of climatically suitable habitat for three northeast Australian butterfly subspecies (Doleschallia bisaltide australis, Hypolimnas alimena lamina, and Mycalesis terminus terminus) across the three ENSO phases. We find that the spatial extent and quality of habitat are lowest under conditions that would characterize a persistent El Niño (hot/dry). In contrast, suitable habitat is broadest under the warm/wet conditions associated with La Niña. Statistical analyses of the difference between pair‐wise combinations of suitability maps using Hellinger distance showed that projections for each subspecies and ENSO phase combination were significantly different from other combinations. The resilience of these, and other, butterfly (sub)species to changes in ENSO will be influenced by fluctuations in the strength of these events, availability of refugia, and life‐history characteristics. However, the population dynamics of wet‐ and dry‐season phenotypes of M. t. terminus and physiological limitations to high temperatures suggest that this subspecies, in particular, may have limited resilience should the strength and frequency of El Niño events increase.     

The future of cold‐adapted plants in changing climates: Micranthes (Saxifragaceae) as a case study

Research has shown species undergoing range contractions and/or northward and higher elevational movements as a result of changing climates. Here, we evaluate how the distribution of a group of cold‐adapted plant species with similar evolutionary histories changes in response to warming climates. We selected 29 species of Micranthes (Saxifragaceae) representing the mountain and Arctic biomes of the Northern Hemisphere. For this analysis, 24,755 data points were input into ecological niche models to assess both present fundamental niches and predicted future ranges under climate change scenarios. Comparisons were made across the Northern Hemisphere between all cold‐adapted Micranthes, including Arctic species, montane species, and species defined as narrow endemics. Under future climate change models, 72% of the species would occupy smaller geographical areas than at present. This loss of habitat is most pronounced in Arctic species in general, but is also prevalent in species restricted to higher elevations in mountains. Additionally, narrowly endemic species restricted to high elevations were more susceptible to habitat loss than those species found at lower elevations. Using a large dataset and modeling habitat suitability at a global scale, our results empirically model the threats to cold‐adapted species as a result of warming climates. Although Arctic and alpine biomes share many underlying climate similarities, such as cold and short growing seasons, our results confirm that species in these climates have varied responses to climate change and that key abiotic variables differ between these two habitats.     

Gimme shelter – the relative sensitivity of parasitic nematodes with direct and indirect life cycles to climate change

Climate change is expected to alter the dynamics of host–parasite systems globally. One key element in developing predictive models for these impacts is the life cycle of the parasite. It is, for example, commonly assumed that parasites with an indirect life cycle would be more sensitive to changing environmental conditions than parasites with a direct life cycle due to the greater chance that at least one of their obligate host species will go extinct. Here, we challenge this notion by contrasting parasitic nematodes with a direct life cycle against those with an indirect life cycle. Specifically, we suggest that behavioral thermoregulation by the intermediate host may buffer the larvae of indirectly transmitted parasites against temperature extremes, and hence climate warming. We term this the ‘shelter effect’. Formalizing each life cycle in a comprehensive model reveals a fitness advantage for the direct life cycle over the indirect life cycle at low temperatures, but the shelter effect reverses this advantage at high temperatures. When examined for seasonal environments, the models suggest that climate warming may in some regions create a temporal niche in mid‐summer that excludes parasites with a direct life cycle, but allows parasites with an indirect life cycle to persist. These patterns are amplified if parasite larvae are able to manipulate their intermediate host to increase ingestion probability by definite hosts. Furthermore, our results suggest that exploiting the benefits of host sheltering may have aided the evolution of indirect life cycles. Our modeling framework utilizes the Metabolic Theory of Ecology to synthesize the complexities of host behavioral thermoregulation and its impacts on various temperature‐dependent parasite life history components in a single measure of fitness, R₀. It allows quantitative predictions of climate change impacts, and is easily generalized to many host–parasite systems.     

Competing for blood: the ecology of parasite resource competition in human malaria–helminth co‐infections

Ecological theory suggests that co‐infecting parasite species can interact within hosts directly, via host immunity and/or via resource competition. In mice, competition for red blood cells (RBCs) between malaria and bloodsucking helminths can regulate malaria population dynamics, but the importance of RBC competition in human hosts was unknown. We analysed infection density (i.e. the concentration of parasites in infected hosts), from a 2‐year deworming study of over 4000 human subjects. After accounting for resource‐use differences among parasites, we find evidence of resource competition, priority effects and a competitive hierarchy within co‐infected individuals. For example reducing competition via deworming increased Plasmodium vivax densities 2.8‐fold, and this effect is limited to bloodsucking hookworms. Our ecological, resource‐based perspective sheds new light into decades of conflicting outcomes of malaria–helminth co‐infection studies with significant health and transmission consequences. Beyond blood, investigating within‐human resource competition may bring new insights for improving human health.     

Experimental warming drives a seasonal shift in the timing of host‐parasite dynamics with consequences for disease risk

Multi‐species experiments are critical for identifying the mechanisms through which climate change influences population dynamics and community interactions within ecological systems, including infectious diseases. Using a host–parasite system involving freshwater snails, amphibians and trematode parasites, we conducted a year‐long, outdoor experiment to evaluate how warming affected net parasite production, the timing of infection and the resultant pathology. Warming of 3 °C caused snail intermediate hosts to release parasites 9 months earlier and increased infected snail mortality by fourfold, leading to decreased overlap between amphibians and parasites. As a result, warming halved amphibian infection loads and reduced pathology by 67%, despite comparable total parasite production across temperature treatments. These results demonstrate that climate–disease theory should be expanded to account for predicted changes in host and parasite phenology, which may often be more important than changes in total parasite output for predicting climate‐driven changes in disease risk.     

Water temperature,not fish morph,determines parasite infections of sympatric Icelandic threespine sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus)

Parasite communities of fishes are known to respond directly to the abiotic environment of the host, for example, to water quality and water temperature. Biotic factors are also important as they affect the exposure profile through heterogeneities in parasite distribution in the environment. Parasites in a particular environment may pose a strong selection on fish. For example, ecological differences in selection by parasites have been hypothesized to facilitate evolutionary differentiation of freshwater fish morphs specializing on different food types. However, as parasites may also respond directly to abiotic environment the parasite risk does not depend only on biotic features of the host environment. It is possible that different morphs experience specific selection gradients by parasites but it is not clear how consistent the selection is when abiotic factors change. We examined parasite pressure in sympatric morphs of threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) across a temperature gradient in two large Icelandic lakes, Myvatn and Thingvallavatn. Habitat‐specific temperature gradients in these lakes are opposite. Myvatn lava rock morph lives in a warm environment, while the mud morph lives in the cold. In Thingvallavatn, the lava rock morph lives in a cold environment and the mud morph in a warm habitat. We found more parasites in fish living in higher temperature in both lakes, independent of the fish morph, and this pattern was similar for the two dominating parasite taxa, trematodes and cestodes. However, at the same time, we also found higher parasite abundance in a third morph living in deep cold–water habitat in Thingvallavatn compared to the cold‐water lava morph, indicating strong effect of habitat‐specific biotic factors. Our results suggest complex interactions between water temperature and biotic factors in determining the parasite community structure, a pattern that may have implications for differentiation of stickleback morphs.     

Bio‐energetics underpins the spatial response of North Sea plaice (Pleuronectes platessa L.) and sole (Solea solea L.) to climate change

Climate change is currently one of the main driving forces behind changes in species distributions, and understanding the mechanisms that underpin macroecological patterns is necessary for a more predictive science. Warming sea water temperatures are expected to drive changes in ectothermic marine species ranges due to their thermal tolerance levels. Here, we develop a mechanistic tool to predict size‐ and season‐specific distributions based on the physiology of the species and the temperature and food conditions in the sea. The effects of climate conditions on physiological‐based habitat utilization was then examined for different size‐classes of two commercially important fish species in the North Sea, plaice, Pleuronectes platessa, and sole, Solea solea. The two species provide an attractive comparison as they differ in their physiology (e.g. preferred temperature range). Combining dynamic energy budget (DEB) models with the temperature and food conditions estimated by an ecosystem model (ERSEM), allowed spatial differences in potential growth (as a proxy for habitat quality) to be estimated for 2 years with contrasting temperature and food conditions. The resulting habitat quality maps were in broad agreement with observed ontogenetic and seasonal changes in distribution as well as with the recent changes in distribution which could be attributed to an increase in coastal temperatures. Our physiological‐based model provides a powerful tool to explore the effect of climate change on the spatio‐temporal fish dynamics, predict effects of local or broad‐scale environmental changes and provide a physiological basis for observed changes in species distributions.     

Using a climatic niche model to predict the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on the distribution of Douglas‐fir in New Zealand

Climate change is likely to have major impacts on the distribution of planted and natural forests. Herein, we demonstrate how a process‐based niche model (CLIMEX) can be extended to globally project the potential habitat suitable for Douglas‐fir. Within this distribution, we use CLIMEX to predict abundance of the pathogen P haeocryptopus gaeumannii and severity of its associated foliage disease, Swiss needle cast. The distribution and severity of the disease, which can strongly reduce growth rate of Douglas‐fir, is closely correlated with seasonal temperatures and precipitation. This model is used to project how climate change during the 2080s may alter the area suitable for Douglas‐fir plantations within New Zealand. The climate change scenarios used indicate that the land area suitable for Douglas‐fir production in the North Island will be reduced markedly from near 100% under current climate to 36–64% of the total land area by 2080s. Within areas shown to be suitable for the host in the North Island, four of the six climate change scenarios predict substantial increases in disease severity that will make these regions at best marginal for Douglas‐fir by the 2080s. In contrast, most regions in the South Island are projected to sustain relatively low levels of disease, and remain suitable for Douglas‐fir under climate change over the course of this century.     

Mutualism influences species distribution predictions for a bromeliad‐breeding anuran under climate change

Ecological niche models, or species distribution models, have been widely used to identify potentially suitable areas for species in future climate change scenarios. However, there are inherent errors to these models due to their inability to evaluate species occurrence influenced by non‐climatic factors. With the intuit to improve the modelling predictions for a bromeliad‐breeding treefrog (Phyllodytes melanomystax, Hylidae), we investigate how the climatic suitability of bromeliads influences the distribution model for the treefrog in the context of baseline and 2050 climate change scenarios. We used point occurrence data on the frog and the bromeliad (Vriesea procera, Bromeliaceae) to generate their predicted distributions based on baseline and 2050 climates. Using a consensus of five algorithms, we compared the accuracy of the models and the geographic predictions for the frog generated from two modelling procedures: (i) a climate‐only model for P. melanomystax and V. procera; and (ii) a climate‐biotic model for P. melanomystax, in which the climatic suitability of the bromeliad was jointly considered with the climatic variables. Both modelling approaches generated strong and similar predictive power for P. melanomystax, yet climate‐biotic modelling generated more concise predictions, particularly for the year 2050. Specifically, because the predicted area of the bromeliad overlaps with the predictions for the treefrog in the baseline climate, both modelling approaches produce reasonable similar predicted areas for the anuran. Alternatively, due to the predicted loss of northern climatically suitable areas for the bromeliad by 2050, only the climate‐biotic models provide evidence that northern populations of P. melanomystax will likely be negatively affected by 2050.     

How climate,migration ability and habitat fragmentation affect the projected future distribution of European beech

Recent efforts to incorporate migration processes into species distribution models (SDMs) are allowing assessments of whether species are likely to be able to track their future climate optimum and the possible causes of failing to do so. Here, we projected the range shift of European beech over the 21st century using a process‐based SDM coupled to a phenomenological migration model accounting for population dynamics, according to two climate change scenarios and one land use change scenario. Our model predicts that the climatically suitable habitat for European beech will shift north‐eastward and upward mainly because (i) higher temperature and precipitation, at the northern range margins, will increase survival and fruit maturation success, while (ii) lower precipitations and higher winter temperature, at the southern range margins, will increase drought mortality and prevent bud dormancy breaking. Beech colonization rate of newly climatically suitable habitats in 2100 is projected to be very low (1–2% of the newly suitable habitats colonised). Unexpectedly, the projected realized contraction rate was higher than the projected potential contraction rate. As a result, the realized distribution of beech is projected to strongly contract by 2100 (by 36–61%) mainly due to a substantial increase in climate variability after 2050, which generates local extinctions, even at the core of the distribution, the frequency of which prevents beech recolonization during more favourable years. Although European beech will be able to persist in some parts of the trailing edge of its distribution, the combined effects of climate and land use changes, limited migration ability, and a slow life‐history are likely to increase its threat status in the near future.