Temperature‐driven shifts in a host‐parasite interaction drive nonlinear changes in disease risk

Climate change may shift the timing and consequences of interspecific interactions, including those important to disease spread. Because hosts and pathogens may respond differentially to climate shifts, however, predicting the net effects on disease patterns remains challenging. Here, we used field data to guide a series of laboratory experiments that systematically evaluated the effects of temperature on the full infection process, including survival, penetration, establishment, persistence, and virulence of a highly pathogenic trematode (Ribeiroia ondatrae), and the development and survival of its amphibian host. Our results revealed nonlinearities in pathology as a function of temperature, which likely resulted from changes in both host and parasite processes. Both hosts and parasites responded strongly to temperature; hosts accelerated development while parasites showed enhanced host penetration but reduced establishment (encystment) and survival outside the host. While there were no differences in host survival among treatments, we observed a mid‐temperature peak in parasite‐induced deformities (63% at 20 °C), with the lowest frequency of deformities (12%) occurring at the highest temperature (26 °C). This nonlinear effect could result from temperature‐driven changes in parasite burden owing to shifts in host penetration and/or clearance, reductions in host vulnerability owing to faster development, or both. Furthermore, despite strong temperature‐driven changes in parasite penetration, survival, and establishment, the opposing nature of these effects lead to no difference in tadpole parasite burdens shortly after infection. These findings suggest that temperature‐driven changes to the disease process may not be easily observable from comparison of parasite burdens alone, but multi‐tiered experiments quantifying the responses of hosts, parasites and their interactions can enhance our ability to predict temperature‐driven changes to disease risk. Climate‐driven changes to disease patterns will therefore depend on underlying shifts in host and parasite development rates and the timing of their interactions.     

Gimme shelter – the relative sensitivity of parasitic nematodes with direct and indirect life cycles to climate change

Climate change is expected to alter the dynamics of host–parasite systems globally. One key element in developing predictive models for these impacts is the life cycle of the parasite. It is, for example, commonly assumed that parasites with an indirect life cycle would be more sensitive to changing environmental conditions than parasites with a direct life cycle due to the greater chance that at least one of their obligate host species will go extinct. Here, we challenge this notion by contrasting parasitic nematodes with a direct life cycle against those with an indirect life cycle. Specifically, we suggest that behavioral thermoregulation by the intermediate host may buffer the larvae of indirectly transmitted parasites against temperature extremes, and hence climate warming. We term this the ‘shelter effect’. Formalizing each life cycle in a comprehensive model reveals a fitness advantage for the direct life cycle over the indirect life cycle at low temperatures, but the shelter effect reverses this advantage at high temperatures. When examined for seasonal environments, the models suggest that climate warming may in some regions create a temporal niche in mid‐summer that excludes parasites with a direct life cycle, but allows parasites with an indirect life cycle to persist. These patterns are amplified if parasite larvae are able to manipulate their intermediate host to increase ingestion probability by definite hosts. Furthermore, our results suggest that exploiting the benefits of host sheltering may have aided the evolution of indirect life cycles. Our modeling framework utilizes the Metabolic Theory of Ecology to synthesize the complexities of host behavioral thermoregulation and its impacts on various temperature‐dependent parasite life history components in a single measure of fitness, R₀. It allows quantitative predictions of climate change impacts, and is easily generalized to many host–parasite systems.     

Predation and disease: understanding the effects of predators at several trophic levels on pathogen transmission

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Robust geographical determinants of infection prevalence and a contrasting latitudinal diversity gradient for haemosporidian parasites in Western Palearctic birds

Identifying robust environmental predictors of infection probability is central to forecasting and mitigating the ongoing impacts of climate change on vector‐borne disease threats. We applied phylogenetic hierarchical models to a data set of 2,171 Western Palearctic individual birds from 47 species to determine how climate and landscape variation influence infection probability for three genera of haemosporidian blood parasites (Haemoproteus, Leucocytozoon, and Plasmodium). Our comparative models found compelling evidence that birds in areas with higher vegetation density (captured by the normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI]) had higher likelihoods of carrying parasite infection. Magnitudes of this relationship were remarkably similar across parasite genera considering that these parasites use different arthropod vectors and are widely presumed to be epidemiologically distinct. However, we also uncovered key differences among genera that highlighted complexities in their climate responses. In particular, prevalences of Haemoproteus and Plasmodium showed strong but contrasting relationships with winter temperatures, supporting mounting evidence that winter warming is a key environmental filter impacting the dynamics of host‐parasite interactions. Parasite phylogenetic community diversities demonstrated a clear but contrasting latitudinal gradient, with Haemoproteus diversity increasing towards the equator and Leucocytozoon diversity increasing towards the poles. Haemoproteus diversity also increased in regions with higher vegetation density, supporting our evidence that summer vegetation density is important for structuring the distributions of these parasites. Ongoing variation in winter temperatures and vegetation characteristics will probably have far‐reaching consequences for the transmission and spread of vector‐borne diseases.     

Host species,and not environment,predicts variation in blood parasite prevalence,distribution, and diversity along a humidity gradient in northern South America

Environmental factors strongly influence the ecology and evolution of vector‐borne infectious diseases. However, our understanding of the influence of climatic variation on host–parasite interactions in tropical systems is rudimentary. We studied five species of birds and their haemosporidian parasites (Plasmodium and Haemoproteus) at 16 sampling sites to understand how environmental heterogeneity influences patterns of parasite prevalence, distribution, and diversity across a marked gradient in water availability in northern South America. We used molecular methods to screen for parasite infections and to identify parasite lineages. To characterize spatial heterogeneity in water availability, we used weather‐station and remotely sensed climate data. We estimated parasite prevalence while accounting for spatial autocorrelation, and used a model selection approach to determine the effect of variables related to water availability and host species on prevalence. The prevalence, distribution, and lineage diversity of haemosporidian parasites varied among localities and host species, but we found no support for the hypothesis that the prevalence and diversity of parasites increase with increasing water availability. Host species and host × climate interactions had stronger effects on infection prevalence, and parasite lineages were strongly associated with particular host species. Because climatic variables had little effect on the overall prevalence and lineage diversity of haemosporidian parasites across study sites, our results suggest that independent host–parasite dynamics may influence patterns in parasitism in environmentally heterogeneous landscapes.     

Multiple zoosporic parasites pose a significant threat to amphibian populations

There is substantial evidence for the dominant role of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in amphibian population dynamics. However, a wide range of other pathogens could also be important in precipitating amphibian population declines, particularly in the face of climate change or other stressors. Here we discuss some examples of zoosporic parasites in the Chytridiomycota, Mesomycetozoa, Perkinsozoa and Oomycota, all of which infect amphibians in freshwater habitats. The pathosystem model provides an excellent basis for understanding host–parasite interactions. Chemotactic zoopores and several families of proteases facilitate infection. Introduction of non-native host may accelerate the dispersal of these parasites. Unlike B. dendrobatidis some of the other zoosporic parasites grow well at or slightly above 25 °C, and their growth rates are likely to increase with global warming. The interactions of parasites with each other and the combined effect of simultaneous infection with multiple species in amphibian populations remain to be carefully studied.     

Clonal diversity driven by parasitism in a freshwater snail

One explanation for the widespread abundance of sexual reproduction is the advantage that genetically diverse sexual lineages have under strong pressure from virulent coevolving parasites. Such parasites are believed to track common asexual host genotypes, resulting in negative frequency‐dependent selection that counterbalances the population growth‐rate advantage of asexuals in comparison with sexuals. In the face of genetically diverse asexual lineages, this advantage of sexual reproduction might be eroded, and instead sexual populations would be replaced by diverse assemblages of clonal lineages. We investigated whether parasite‐mediated selection promotes clonal diversity in 22 natural populations of the freshwater snail Melanoides tuberculata. We found that infection prevalence explains the observed variation in the clonal diversity of M. tuberculata populations, whereas no such relationship was found between infection prevalence and male frequency. Clonal diversity and male frequency were independent of snail population density. Incorporating ecological factors such as presence/absence of fish, habitat geography and habitat type did not improve the predictive power of regression models. Approximately 11% of the clonal snail genotypes were shared among 2–4 populations, creating a web of 17 interconnected populations. Taken together, our study suggests that parasite‐mediated selection coupled with host dispersal ecology promotes clonal diversity. This, in return, may erode the advantage of sexual reproduction in M. tuberculata populations.     

Save your host,save yourself? Caste‐ratio adjustment in a parasite with division of labor and snail host survival following shell damage

Shell damage and parasitic infections are frequent in gastropods, influencing key snail host life‐history traits such as survival, growth, and reproduction. However, their interactions and potential effects on hosts and parasites have never been tested. Host–parasite interactions are particularly interesting in the context of the recently discovered division of labor in trematodes infecting marine snails. Some species have colonies consisting of two different castes present at varying ratios; reproductive members and nonreproductive soldiers specialized in defending the colony. We assessed snail host survival, growth, and shell regeneration in interaction with infections by two trematode species, Philophthalmus sp. and Maritrema novaezealandense, following damage to the shell in the New Zealand mud snail Zeacumantus subcarinatus. We concomitantly assessed caste‐ratio adjustment between nonreproductive soldiers and reproductive members in colonies of the trematode Philophthalmus sp. in response to interspecific competition and shell damage to its snail host. Shell damage, but not parasitic infection, significantly increased snail mortality, likely due to secondary infections by pathogens. However, trematode infection and shell damage did not negatively affect shell regeneration or growth in Z. subcarinatus; infected snails actually produced more new shell than their uninfected counterparts. Both interspecific competition and shell damage to the snail host induced caste‐ratio adjustment in Philophthalmus sp. colonies. The proportion of nonreproductive soldiers increased in response to interspecific competition and host shell damage, likely to defend the parasite colony and potentially the snail host against increasing threats. These results indicate that secondary infections by pathogens following shell damage to snails both significantly increased snail mortality and induced caste‐ratio adjustments in parasites. This is the first evidence that parasites with a division of labor may be able to produce nonreproductive soldiers according to environmental factors other than interspecific competition with other parasites.     

One stimulus—Two responses: Host and parasite life‐history variation in response to environmental stress

Climate change stressors will place different selective pressures on both parasites and their hosts, forcing individuals to modify their life‐history strategies and altering the distribution and prevalence of disease. Few studies have investigated whether parasites are able to respond to host stress and respond by varying their reproductive schedules. Additionally, multiple environmental stressors can limit the ability of a host to respond adaptively to parasite infection. This study compared both host and parasite life‐history parameters in unstressed and drought‐stressed environments using the human parasite, Schistosoma mansoni, in its freshwater snail intermediate host. Snail hosts infected with the parasite demonstrated a significant reproductive burst during the prepatent period (fecundity compensation), but that response was absent in a drought‐stressed environment. This is the first report of the elimination of host fecundity compensation to parasitism when exposed to additional environmental stress. More surprisingly, we found that infections in drought‐stressed snails had significantly higher parasite reproductive outputs than infections in unstressed snails. The finding suggests that climate change may alter the infection dynamics of this human parasite.     

Global warming will reshuffle the areas of high prevalence and richness of three genera of avian blood parasites

The importance of parasitism for host populations depends on local parasite richness and prevalence: usually host individuals face higher infection risk in areas where parasites are most diverse, and host dispersal to or from these areas may have fitness consequences. Knowing how parasites are and will be distributed in space and time (in a context of global change) is thus crucial from both an ecological and a biological conservation perspective. Nevertheless, most research articles focus just on elaborating models of parasite distribution instead of parasite diversity. We produced distribution models of the areas where haemosporidian parasites are currently highly diverse (both at community and at within‐host levels) and prevalent among Iberian populations of a model passerine host: the blackcap Sylvia atricapilla; and how these areas are expected to vary according to three scenarios of climate change. On the basis of these models, we analysed whether variation among populations in parasite richness or prevalence are expected to remain the same or change in the future, thereby reshuffling the geographic mosaic of host‐parasite interactions as we observe it today. Our models predict a rearrangement of areas of high prevalence and richness of parasites in the future, with Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon parasites (today the most diverse genera in blackcaps) losing areas of high diversity and Plasmodium parasites (the most virulent ones) gaining them. Likewise, the prevalence of multiple infections and parasite infracommunity richness would be reduced. Importantly, differences among populations in the prevalence and richness of parasites are expected to decrease in the future, creating a more homogeneous parasitic landscape. This predicts an altered geographic mosaic of host‐parasite relationships, which will modify the interaction arena in which parasite virulence evolves.     

Bioenergetic theory predicts infection dynamics of human schistosomes in intermediate host snails across ecological gradients

Epidemiological dynamics depend on the traits of hosts and parasites, but hosts and parasites are heterogeneous entities that exist in dynamic environments. Resource availability is a particularly dynamic and potent environmental driver of within‐host infection dynamics (temporal patterns of growth, reproduction, parasite production and survival). We developed, parameterised and validated a model for resource‐explicit infection dynamics by incorporating a parasitism module into dynamic energy budget theory. The model mechanistically explained the dynamic multivariate responses of the human parasite Schistosoma mansoni and its intermediate host snail to variation in resources and host density. At the population level, feedbacks mediated by resource competition could create a unimodal relationship between snail density and human risk of exposure to schistosomes. Consequently, weak snail control could backfire if reductions in snail density release remaining hosts from resource competition. If resource competition is strong and relevant to schistosome production in nature, it could inform control strategies.     

Climate changes influence free‐living stages of soil‐transmitted parasites of European rabbits

Climate warming has been suggested to augment the risk of infectious disease outbreaks by extending the seasonal window for parasite growth and by increasing the rate of transmission. Understanding how this occurs in parasite‐host systems is important for appreciating long‐term and seasonal changes in host exposure to infection and to reduce species extinction caused by diseases. We investigated how free‐living stages of two soil‐transmitted helminths of the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) responded to experimental changes in temperature by performing laboratory experiments with environmental chambers and field manipulations using open‐top‐chambers. This study was motivated by our previous observations that air temperature has increased over the last 30 years in our field site and that during this period intensity of infection of Graphidium strigosum but not Trichostrongylus retortaeformis was positively associated with this temperature increase. Laboratory and field experiments showed that both parasites accelerated egg development and increased hatching rate and larval survival in response to accumulating thermal energy. Both parasites behaved similarly when exposed to diverse temperature regimes, decadal trends, and monthly fluctuations, however, T. retortaeformis was more successful than G. strigosum by showing higher rates of egg hatching and larval survival. Across the months, the first day of hatching occurred earlier in warmer conditions suggesting that climate warming can lengthen the period of parasite growth and host exposure to infective stages. Also, T. retortaeformis hatched earlier than G. strigosum. These findings showed that seasonal changes in intensity, frequency, and duration of daily temperature are important causes of variability in egg hatching and larva survival. Overall, this study emphasizes the important role of climate warming and seasonality on the dynamics of free‐living stages in soil‐transmitted helminths and their contribution to enhance host exposure to parasitic infections. Yet, the ability to infect might ultimately depend on how hosts interact with parasites.     

Parasite predators exhibit a rapid numerical response to increased parasite abundance and reduce transmission to hosts

Predators of parasites have recently gained attention as important parts of food webs and ecosystems. In aquatic systems, many taxa consume free‐living stages of parasites, and can thus reduce parasite transmission to hosts. However, the importance of the functional and numerical responses of parasite predators to disease dynamics is not well understood. We collected host–parasite–predator cooccurrence data from the field, and then experimentally manipulated predator abundance, parasite abundance, and the presence of alternative prey to determine the consequences for parasite transmission. The parasite predator of interest was a ubiquitous symbiotic oligochaete of mollusks, Chaetogaster limnaei limnaei, which inhabits host shells and consumes larval trematode parasites. Predators exhibited a rapid numerical response, where predator populations increased or decreased by as much as 60% in just 5 days, depending on the parasite:predator ratio. Furthermore, snail infection decreased substantially with increasing parasite predator densities, where the highest predator densities reduced infection by up to 89%. Predators of parasites can play an important role in regulating parasite transmission, even when infection risk is high, and especially when predators can rapidly respond numerically to resource pulses. We suggest that these types of interactions might have cascading effects on entire disease systems, and emphasize the importance of considering disease dynamics at the community level.     

Diversity and disease: community structure drives parasite transmission and host fitness

Changes in host diversity and community structure have been linked to disease, but the mechanisms underlying such relationships and their applicability to non-vector-borne disease systems remain conjectural. Here we experimentally investigated how changes in host community structure affected the transmission and pathology of the multi-host parasite Ribeiroia ondatrae, which is a widespread cause of amphibian limb deformities. We exposed larval amphibians to parasites in monospecific or heterospecific communities, and varied host number to differentiate between density- and diversity-mediated effects on transmission. In monospecific communities, exposure to Ribeiroia significantly increased mortality (15%), malformations (40%) and time-to-metamorphosis in toads. However, the presence of tree frogs significantly reduced infection in toads, leading to fewer malformations and higher survival than observed in monospecific communities, providing evidence of parasite-mediated facilitation. Our results suggest that interspecific variation in parasite resistance can inhibit parasite transmission in multi-species communities, reducing infection and pathology in sensitive hosts.     

Finding the appropriate variables to model the distribution of vector‐borne parasites with different environmental preferences: climate is not enough

Understanding how environmental variation influences the distribution of parasite diversity is critical if we are to anticipate disease emergence risks associated with global change. However, choosing the relevant variables for modelling current and future parasite distributions may be difficult: candidate predictors are many, and they seldom are statistically independent. This problem often leads to simplistic models of current and projected future parasite distributions, with climatic variables prioritized over potentially important landscape features or host population attributes. We studied avian blood parasites of the genera Plasmodium, Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon (which are viewed as potential emergent pathogens) in 37 Iberian blackcap Sylvia atricapilla populations. We used Partial Least Squares regression to assess the relative importance of a wide array of putative determinants of variation in the diversity of these parasites, including climate, landscape features and host population migration. Both prevalence and richness of parasites were predominantly related to climate (an effect which was primarily, but not exclusively driven by variation in temperature), but landscape features and host migration also explained variation in parasite diversity. Remarkably, different models emerged for each parasite genus, although all parasites were studied in the same host species. Our results show that parasite distribution models, which are usually based on climatic variables alone, improve by including other types of predictors. Moreover, closely related parasites may show different relationships to the same environmental influences (both in magnitude and direction). Thus, a model used to develop one parasite distribution can probably not be applied identically even to the most similar host–parasite systems.     

Chance or choice? Understanding parasite selection and infection in multi-host communities

Ongoing debate over the relationship between biodiversity and disease risk underscores the need to develop a more mechanistic understanding of how changes in host community composition influence parasite transmission, particularly in complex communities with multiple hosts. A key challenge involves determining how motile parasites select among potential hosts and the degree to which this process shifts with community composition. Focusing on interactions between larval amphibians and the pathogenic trematode Ribeiroia ondatrae, we designed a novel, large-volume set of choice chambers to assess how the selectivity of free-swimming infectious parasites varied among five host species and in response to changes in assemblage composition (four different permutations). In a second set of trials, cercariae were allowed to contact and infect hosts, allowing comparison of host-parasite encounter rates (parasite choice) with infection outcomes (successful infections). Cercariae exhibited consistent preferences for specific host species that were independent of the community context; large-bodied amphibians, such as larval bullfrogs (Rana catesbeiana), exhibited the highest level of parasite attraction. However, because host attractiveness was decoupled from susceptibility to infection, assemblage composition sharply affected both per-host infection as well as total infection (summed among co-occurring hosts). Species such as the non-native R. catesbeiana functioned as epidemiological ‘sinks’ or dilution hosts, attracting a disproportionate fraction of parasites relative to the number that established successfully, whereas Taricha granulosa and especially Pseudacris regilla supported comparatively more metacercariae relative to cercariae selection. These findings provide a framework for integrating information on parasite preference in combination with more traditional factors such as host competence and density to forecast how changes within complex communities will affect parasite transmission.     

Climate,host phylogeny and the connectivity of host communities govern regional parasite assembly

Aim

Identifying barriers that govern parasite community assembly and parasite invasion risk is critical to understand how shifting host ranges impact disease emergence. We studied regional variation in the phylogenetic compositions of bird species and their blood parasites (Plasmodium and Haemoproteus spp.) to identify barriers that shape parasite community assembly.

Location

Australasia and Oceania.

Methods

We used a data set of parasite infections from >10,000 host individuals sampled across 29 bioregions. Hierarchical models and matrix regressions were used to assess the relative influences of interspecies (host community connectivity and local phylogenetic distinctiveness), climate and geographic barriers on parasite local distinctiveness and composition.

Results

Parasites were more locally distinct (co‐occurred with distantly related parasites) when infecting locally distinct hosts, but less distinct (co‐occurred with closely related parasites) in areas with increased host diversity and community connectivity (a proxy for parasite dispersal potential). Turnover and the phylogenetic symmetry of parasite communities were jointly driven by host turnover, climate similarity and geographic distance.

Main conclusions

Interspecies barriers linked to host phylogeny and dispersal shape parasite assembly, perhaps by limiting parasite establishment or local diversification. Infecting hosts that co‐occur with few related species decreases a parasite's likelihood of encountering related competitors, perhaps increasing invasion potential but decreasing diversification opportunity. While climate partially constrains parasite distributions, future host range expansions that spread distinct parasites and diminish barriers to host shifting will likely be key drivers of parasite invasions.     

Half the story: Thermal effects on within‐host infectious disease progression in a warming climate

Immune defense is temperature dependent in cold‐blooded vertebrates (CBVs) and thus directly impacted by global warming. We examined whether immunity and within‐host infectious disease progression are altered in CBVs under realistic climate warming in a seasonal mid‐latitude setting. Going further, we also examined how large thermal effects are in relation to the effects of other environmental variation in such a setting (critical to our ability to project infectious disease dynamics from thermal relationships alone). We employed the three‐spined stickleback and three ecologically relevant parasite infections as a “wild” model. To generate a realistic climatic warming scenario we used naturalistic outdoors mesocosms with precise temperature control. We also conducted laboratory experiments to estimate thermal effects on immunity and within‐host infectious disease progression under controlled conditions. As experimental readouts we measured disease progression for the parasites and expression in 14 immune‐associated genes (providing insight into immunophenotypic responses). Our mesocosm experiment demonstrated significant perturbation due to modest warming (+2°C), altering the magnitude and phenology of disease. Our laboratory experiments demonstrated substantial thermal effects. Prevailing thermal effects were more important than lagged thermal effects and disease progression increased or decreased in severity with increasing temperature in an infection‐specific way. Combining laboratory‐determined thermal effects with our mesocosm data, we used inverse modeling to partition seasonal variation in Saprolegnia disease progression into a thermal effect and a latent immunocompetence effect (driven by nonthermal environmental variation and correlating with immune gene expression). The immunocompetence effect was large, accounting for at least as much variation in Saprolegnia disease as the thermal effect. This suggests that managers of CBV populations in variable environments may not be able to reliably project infectious disease risk from thermal data alone. Nevertheless, such projections would be improved by primarily considering prevailing thermal effects in the case of within‐host disease and by incorporating validated measures of immunocompetence.     

Whether larval amphibians school does not affect the parasite aggregation rule: testing the effects of host spatial heterogeneity in field and experimental studies

Almost all macroparasites show over‐dispersed infections within natural host populations such that most parasites are distributed among a few heavily‐infected individuals. Despite the importance of parasite aggregation for understanding system stability, the potential for population regulation, and super‐spreading events, many questions persist about its underlying drivers. Theoretically, aggregation results from heterogeneity in host exposure, resistance, and tolerance. However, few studies have examined how host spatial arrangement – which likely affects both parasite encounter and density‐dependent interactions – influences infection and dispersion, representing a critical gap in our current knowledge regarding the possible drivers of parasite aggregation. Using field data from over 165 ponds and 8000 hosts, we evaluated how the spatial clustering of amphibian larvae within ponds 1) varied among different amphibian species, and 2), affected the distribution of parasites within the host population using Taylor's power law. A complementary mesocosm experiment used field‐guided manipulations of the spatial arrangement of larval amphibians to create a gradient in host clustering while controlling host density, thereby testing for spatial effects on both infection success and aggregation by three different trematode species. Our field data indicated that larval amphibians exhibited significant spatial clustering that was well captured by Taylor's power law (R² 0.92 to 0.97 for different host species), but the residual variation only weakly correlated with observed patterns of trematode parasite over‐dispersion. Correspondingly, experimental manipulation of host clustering had no effects on parasite infection success or the degree of parasite aggregation among cages or mesocosms. Given the importance of parasite over‐dispersion for host populations and disease dynamics, we advocate for further investigations of host and parasite spatial aggregation, particularly studies that incorporate and/or control for heterogeneity in exposure and susceptibility.