Colonization and extinction dynamics of an annual plant metapopulation in an urban environment

The metapopulation framework considers that the spatiotemporal distribution of organisms results from a balance between the colonization and extinction of populations in a suitable and discrete habitat network. Recent spatially realistic metapopulation models have allowed patch dynamics to be investigated in natural populations but such models have rarely been applied to plants. Using a simple urban fragmented population system in which favourable habitat can be easily mapped, we studied patch dynamics in the annual plant Crepis sancta (Asteraceae). Using stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) and multi‐year occupancy data we dissected extinction and colonization patterns in our system. Overall, our data were consistent with two distinct metapopulation scenarios. A metapopulation (sensu stricto) dynamic in which colonization occurs over a short distance and extinction is lowered by nearby occupied patches (rescue effect) was found in a set of patches close to the city centre, while a propagule rain model in which colonization occurs from a large external population was most consistent with data from other networks. Overall, the study highlights the importance of external seed sources in urban patch dynamics. Our analysis emphasizes the fact that plant distributions are governed not only by habitat properties but also by the intrinsic properties of colonization and dispersal of species. The metapopulation approach provides a valuable tool for understanding how colonization and extinction shape occupancy patterns in highly fragmented plant populations. Finally, this study points to the potential utility of more complex plant metapopulation models than traditionally used for analysing ecological and evolutionary processes in natural metapopulations.     

Three ways of assessing metapopulation structure in the butterfly Plebejus argus

1. Three independent methods were used to investigate population structure in the butterfly Plebejus argus . First, migration and dispersal ability were measured by mark–release–recapture in seven adjacent habitat patches, and by release of butterflies in unoccupied habitat. Secondly, colonization of newly created habitat was observed over 7 years. Finally, genetic differentiation of local populations within a metapopulation was investigated. Sampled local populations included parts of the mark–release–recapture study area.
2. Plebejus argus is relatively sedentary: the maximum movement detected was 395 m, and only 2% of individuals moved further than 100 m between recaptures on different days. None the less, adjacent local populations in the mark–release–recapture study area were linked by occasional migration, with ≈ 1.4% of individuals moving between patches separated by 13–200 m.
3. Despite low mobility, observed colonizations occurred rapidly over distances of 1 km. Because P. argus occurs at high population densities, 1.4% migration can generate enough migrants to colonize newly suitable habitat quickly at this spatial scale.
4. Mark–release–recapture data were used to predict that there would be limited genetic differentiation through drift between local populations at this spatial scale. The prediction was supported by allele frequency data for the same local populations.
5. Genetic differentiation often indicates higher levels of migration than are revealed by the movements of marked individuals. This study shows that when experimental releases and extensive marking are undertaken in areas that are large relative to most movements, indirect measures of gene flow and direct measures of dispersal can concur.
6. Evidence from the three different approaches was complementary, indicating that P. argus occurs as metapopulations within the study area.     

Do invasive species undergo metapopulation dynamics? A case study of the invasive Caspian gull,Larus cachinnans,in Poland

Aim The mechanisms of initial dispersal and habitat occupancy by invasive alien species are fundamental ecological problems. Most tests of metapopulation theory are performed on local population systems that are stable or in decline. In the current study we were interested in the usefulness of metapopulation theory to study patch occupancy, local colonization, extinction and the abundance of the invasive Caspian gull (Larus cachinnans) in its initial invasion stages. Location Waterbodies in Poland. Methods Characteristics of the habitat patches (waterbodies, 35 in total) occupied by breeding pairs of Caspian gulls and an equal sample of randomly selected unoccupied patches were compared with t‐tests. Based on presence–absence data from 1989 to 2006 we analysed factors affecting the probability of local colonization, extinction and the size of local populations using generalized linear models. Results Occupied habitat patches were significantly larger and less isolated (from other habitat patches and other local populations) and were located closer to rivers than empty patches. The proximity of local food resources (fish ponds, refuse dumps) positively affected the occurrence of breeding pairs. The probability of colonization was positively affected by patch area, and negatively by distances to fish ponds, nearest habitat patch, nearest breeding colony and to a river, and by higher forest cover around the patch boundaries. The probability of extinction was lower in patches with a higher number of breeding pairs and with a greater area of islets. The extinction probability increased with distances to other local populations, other habitat patches, fish ponds and to refuse dumps and with a higher cover of forest around the patch boundaries. The size of the local population decreased with distances to the nearest habitat patch, local population, river, fish pond and refuse dump. Local abundance was also positively affected by the area of islets in the patch. Main conclusions During the initial stages of the invasion of Caspian gulls in Poland the species underwent metapopulation‐like dynamics with frequent extinctions from colonized habitat patches. The results prove that metapopulation theory may be a useful conceptual framework for predicting which habitats are more vulnerable to invasion.     

Human‐facilitated metapopulation dynamics in an emerging pest species,Cimex lectularius

The number and demographic history of colonists can have dramatic consequences for the way in which genetic diversity is distributed and maintained in a metapopulation. The bed bug (Cimex lectularius) is a re‐emerging pest species whose close association with humans has led to frequent local extinction and colonization, that is, to metapopulation dynamics. Pest control limits the lifespan of subpopulations, causing frequent local extinctions, and human‐facilitated dispersal allows the colonization of empty patches. Founder events often result in drastic reductions in diversity and an increased influence of genetic drift. Coupled with restricted migration, this can lead to rapid population differentiation. We therefore predicted strong population structuring. Here, using 21 newly characterized microsatellite markers and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), we investigate simplified versions of two classical models of metapopulation dynamics, in a coalescent framework, to estimate the number and genetic composition of founders in the common bed bug. We found very limited diversity within infestations but high degrees of structuring across the city of London, with extreme levels of genetic differentiation between infestations (F_ST = 0.59). ABC results suggest a common origin of all founders of a given subpopulation and that the numbers of colonists were low, implying that even a single mated female is enough to found a new infestation successfully. These patterns of colonization are close to the predictions of the propagule pool model, where all founders originate from the same parental infestation. These results show that aspects of metapopulation dynamics can be captured in simple models and provide insights that are valuable for the future targeted control of bed bug infestations.     

Generalizing Levins metapopulation model in explicit space: models of intermediate complexity

A recent study [Harding and McNamara, 2002. A unifying framework for metapopulation dynamics. Am. Nat. 160, 173-185] presented a unifying framework for the classic Levins metapopulation model by incorporating several realistic biological processes, such as the Allee effect, the Rescue effect and the Anti-rescue effect, via appropriate modifications of the two basic functions of colonization and extinction rates. Here we embed these model extensions on a spatially explicit framework. We consider population dynamics on a regular grid, each site of which represents a patch that is either occupied or empty, and with spatial coupling by neighborhood dispersal. While broad qualitative similarities exist between the spatially explicit models and their spatially implicit (mean-field) counterparts, there are also important differences that result from the details of local processes. Because of localized dispersal, spatial correlation develops among the dynamics of neighboring populations that decays with distance between patches. The extent of this correlation at equilibrium differs among the metapopulation types, depending on which processes prevail in the colonization and extinction dynamics. These differences among dynamical processes become manifest in the spatial pattern and distribution of “clusters” of occupied patches. Moreover, metapopulation dynamics along a smooth gradient of habitat availability show significant differences in the spatial pattern at the range limit. The relevance of these results to the dynamics of disease spread in metapopulations is discussed.     

Both population size and patch quality affect local extinctions and colonizations

Currently, the habitat of many species is fragmented, resulting in small local populations with individuals occasionally dispersing between the remaining habitat patches. In a solitary bee metapopulation, extinction probability was related to both local bee population sizes and pollen resources measured as host plant population size. Patch size, on the other hand, had no additional predictive power. The turnover rate of local bee populations in 63 habitat patches over 4 years was high, with 72 extinction events and 31 colonization events, but the pollen plant population was stable with no extinctions or colonizations. Both pollen resources and bee populations had strong and independent effects on extinction probability, but connectivity was not of importance. Colonizations occurred more frequently within larger host plant populations. For metapopulation survival of the bee, large pollen plant populations are essential, independent of current bee population size.     

Measuring the dispersal of saproxylic insects: a key characteristic for their conservation

In the discipline of nature conservation it is important to understand under which circumstances populations can survive by compensating local extinctions with colonizations. Many saproxylic (= wood-dwelling) insect species have declining populations and are regarded as threatened due to low habitat availability in managed forests. Several methods have been used to better understand the dispersal biology and colonization ability of saproxylic insects with declining populations. The present article summarizes and compares the results of such studies. When the same species have been studied using several methods, the results are consistent, but different aspects of dispersal biology are revealed with different methods. Capture-recapture and telemetry are direct methods that can be used to quantify dispersal rate and range in the field. Studies of genetic structure and occupancy patterns are complementary, as they reveal the consequences of dispersals that have taken place over a larger spatial and temporal scale than is possible to study with direct methods. Because colonization, rather than dispersal, is important for population persistence, colonization experiments provide useful information. To obtain information relevant for conservation work, dispersal studies should be conducted on model species that are representative of threatened species. Colonization ability probability differs between common and rare species, and therefore it is important to also study the dispersal of rare species, even if it is more difficult.     

Potential metapopulation structure and the effects of habitat quality on population size of the endangered False Ringlet butterfly

The False Ringlet (Coenonympha oedippus) is a European butterfly species, endangered due to the severe loss and fragmentation of its habitat. In Hungary, two remaining populations of the butterfly occur in lowland Purple Moorgrass meadows. We studied a metapopulation occupying twelve habitat patches in Central Hungary. Our aim was to reveal what measures of habitat quality affect population size and density of this metapopulation, estimate dispersal parameters and describe phenology of subpopulations. Local population sizes and dispersal parameters were estimated from an extensive mark–release–recapture dataset, while habitat quality was characterized by groundwater level, cover of grass tussocks, bush cover, height of vegetation and grass litter at each habitat patch. The estimated size of the metapopulation was more than 3,000 individuals. We estimated a low dispersal capacity, especially for females, indicating a very low probability of (re)colonization. Butterfly abundance and density in local populations increased with higher grass litter, lower groundwater level and larger area covered by tussocks. We suppose that these environmental factors affect butterfly abundance by determining the microclimatic conditions for both larvae and adult butterflies. Our results suggest that the long-term preservation of the studied metapopulation needs the maintenance of high quality habitat patches by appropriate mowing regime and water regulation. Management also should facilitate dispersal to strengthen metapopulation structure with creating stepping-stones or gradually increase habitat quality in present matrix.     

Does colonization asymmetry matter in metapopulations?

Despite the considerable evidence showing that dispersal between habitat patches is often asymmetric, most of the metapopulation models assume symmetric dispersal. In this paper, we develop a Monte Carlo simulation model to quantify the effect of asymmetric dispersal on metapopulation persistence. Our results suggest that metapopulation extinctions are more likely when dispersal is asymmetric. Metapopulation viability in systems with symmetric dispersal mirrors results from a mean field approximation, where the system persists if the expected per patch colonization probability exceeds the expected per patch local extinction rate. For asymmetric cases, the mean field approximation underestimates the number of patches necessary for maintaining population persistence. If we use a model assuming symmetric dispersal when dispersal is actually asymmetric, the estimation of metapopulation persistence is wrong in more than 50% of the cases. Metapopulation viability depends on patch connectivity in symmetric systems, whereas in the asymmetric case the number of patches is more important. These results have important implications for managing spatially structured populations, when asymmetric dispersal may occur. Future metapopulation models should account for asymmetric dispersal, while empirical work is needed to quantify the patterns and the consequences of asymmetric dispersal in natural metapopulations.     

Long-term dynamics in rock pool Daphnia metapopulations

Metapopulations of Daphnia longispina , D. magna and D. pulex on 16 islands containing 507 rock pools were studied over 17 yr (autumns 1982–1998). Two yearly samples were taken representing early and late summer conditions. A local extinction was assumed when a species was absent from a pool for more than one year. Average yearly extinction rates, calculated from probability of survival in age grouped data, were close to 20%, and number of extinctions was on average balanced by the number of colonizations. Extinction rates during the first year following colonization were 45–50% in all species, but later decreased to low values. In first-year data, single species populations of D. magna had lower extinction rates than in multi-species pools. In later years all species combinations had similar extinction rates. The average proportion of rock pools occupied by D. longispina in any given year was 0.178, by D. magna 0.169 and by D. pulex 0.056. In 22% of cases, coexistence was observed. 71% of the pools were colonized at least once. The distribution of shortest colonization distances was left-skewed, and median distances (7–8 m) were same in all species. The distribution of colonizations mostly corresponded to the expected frequencies calculated as the product of frequencies of source and target pools. Both D. longispina and D. magna colonized pools already occupied with a somewhat higher probability than empty pools. Probably owing to variation of habitat quality, Daphnia populations in some rock pools appear to be less prone to extinction, providing sources of dispersal to patches with higher extinction risk. The system appears to be at an approximate equilibrium, with several characteristics close to classical metapopulation system.     

Founder events as determinants of within-island and among-island genetic structure of Daphnia metapopulations

The genetic structure of metapopulations offers insights into the genetic consequences of local extinction and recolonization. We studied allozyme variation in rock pool metapopulations of two species of waterfleas (Daphnia) with the aim to understand how these dynamics influence genetic differentiation. We screened 138 populations of D. magna and 65 populations of D. longispina from an area in the archipelago of southern Finland. The pools from which they were sampled are separated by distances between 1.5 and 4710 m and located on a total of 38 islands. The genetic population structure of the two species was strikingly similar, consistent with their similar metapopulation ecology. The mean F(PT) value (differentiation among pools with respect to the total metapopulation) was 0.55 and a hierarchical analysis showed that genetic differentiation was strong (>0.25) among pools within islands as well as among whole islands. Within islands, pairwise genetic differentiation increased with geographic distance, indicating isolation by distance due to spatially limited dispersal. Previous studies have shown strong founder events occurring during colonization in our metapopulation. We suggest that the genetic population structure in the studied metapopulations is largely explained by three consequences of these founder events: (i) strong drift during colonization, (ii) local inbreeding, which results in hybrid vigour and increased effective migration rates after subsequent immigration, and (iii) effects of selection through hitchhiking of neutral genes with linked loci under selection.     

Effects of cognitive abilities on metapopulation connectivity

Connectivity among demes in a metapopulation depends on both the landscape's and the focal organism's properties (including its mobility and cognitive abilities). Using individual‐based simulations, we contrast the consequences of three different cognitive strategies on several measures of metapopulation connectivity. Model animals search suitable habitat patches while dispersing through a model landscape made of cells varying in size, shape, attractiveness and friction. In the blind strategy, the next cell is chosen randomly among the adjacent ones. In the near‐sighted strategy, the choice depends on the relative attractiveness of these adjacent cells. In the far‐ sighted strategy, animals may additionally target suitable patches that appear within their perceptual range. Simulations show that the blind strategy provides the best overall connectivity, and results in balanced dispersal. The near‐sighted strategy traps animals into corridors that reduce the number of potential targets, thereby fragmenting metapopulations in several local clusters of demes, and inducing sink–source dynamics. This sort of local trapping is somewhat prevented in the far‐sighted strategy. The colonization success of strategies depends highly on initial energy reserves: blind does best when energy is high, near‐sighted wins at intermediate levels, and far‐sighted outcompetes its rivals at low energy reserves. We also expect strong effects in terms of metapopulation genetics: the blind strategy generates a migrant‐pool mode of dispersal that should erase local structures. By contrast, near‐ and far‐sighted strategies generate a propagule‐pool mode of dispersal and source–sink behavior that should boost structures (high genetic variance among‐ and low variance within local clusters of demes), particularly if metapopulation dynamics is also affected by extinction–colonization processes. Our results thus point to important effects of the cognitive ability of dispersers on the connectivity, dynamics and genetics of metapopulations.     

Metapopulation models for extinction threshold in spatially correlated landscapes

Simple analytical models assuming homogeneous space have been used to examine the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on metapopulation size. The models predict an extinction threshold, a critical amount of suitable habitat below which the metapopulation goes deterministically extinct. The consequences of non-random loss of habitat for species with localized dispersal have been studied mainly numerically. In this paper, we present two analytical approaches to the study of habitat loss and its metapopulation dynamic consequences incorporating spatial correlation in both metapopulation dynamics as well as in the pattern of habitat destruction. One approach is based on a measure called metapopulation capacity, given by the dominant eigenvalue of a "landscape" matrix, which encapsulates the effects of landscape structure on population extinctions and colonizations. The other approach is based on pair approximation. These models allow us to examine analytically the effects of spatial structure in habitat loss on the equilibrium metapopulation size and the threshold condition for persistence. In contrast to the pair approximation based approaches, the metapopulation capacity based approach allows us to consider species with long as well as short dispersal range and landscapes with spatial correlation at different scales. The two methods make dissimilar assumptions, but the broad conclusions concerning the consequences of spatial correlation in the landscape structure are the same. Our results show that increasing correlation in the spatial arrangement of the remaining habitat increases patch occupancy, that this increase is more evident for species with short-range than long-range dispersal, and that to be most beneficial for metapopulation size, the range of spatial correlation in landscape structure should be at least a few times greater than the dispersal range of the species.     

The recovery of coral genetic diversity in the Sunda Strait following the 1883 eruption of Krakatau

Surveys of microsatellite variation show that genetic diversity has largely recovered in two reef-building corals, Pocillopora damicornis and Seriatopora hystrix (Scleractinia: Pocilloporidae), on reefs which were decimated by the eruption of the volcano Krakatau in 1883. Assignment methods and gene flow estimates indicate that the recolonization of Krakatau occurred mainly from the closest upstream reef system, Pulau Seribu, but that larval input from other regions has also occurred. This pattern is clearer in S. hystrix, which is traditionally the more dispersal-limited species. Despite these observed patterns of larval dispersal, self-recruitment appears to now be the most important factor in supplying larvae to coral populations in Krakatau. This suggests that the colonization of devastated reefs can occur quickly through larval dispersal; however, their survival requires local sources of larvae for self-recruitment. This research supports the observation that the recovery of genetic diversity in coral reef animals can occur on the order of decades and centuries rather than millennia. Conservation measures aimed at sustaining coral reef populations in Krakatau and elsewhere should include both the protection of upstream source populations for larval replenishment should disaster occur as well as the protection of large adult colonies to serve as local larval sources.     

Inferring demographic processes from the genetic structure of a metapopulation of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Boltonia decurrens</Emphasis>(Asteraceae)

Boltonia decurrens(Asteraceae), a federally listed, threatened floodplain species, requires regular flooding for suitable habitat and seed dispersal. Flood suppression and habitat destruction have resulted in fewer than 25 populations remaining throughout its 400 km range. Because individual populations are widely interspaced (>10 km) and subject to frequent extinction and colonization, seed dispersal along the river, not pollen flow, is likely the primary determinant of population genetic structure. We used neutral genetic markers (isozymes) assayed for fourteen populations to determine which demographic processes contribute to the genetic structure of B. decurrens. Significant genetic differentiation was detected among populations (F _ST=0.098, P< 0.05) but not among regions (F _RT=0.013, P> 0.05), suggesting that long-distance dispersal events occur and involve seed from a small number of populations. Correspondingly, we found no evidence of isolation by distance, and admixture analyses indicate that colonization events involve seed from 3 to 5 source populations. Individual populations exhibited high levels of fixation (mean F _IS=0.192, P< 0.05), yet mean population outcrossing rates were high (t _m=0.87–0.95) and spatial autocorrelation analyses revealed no fine-scale within population structure, indicating that inbreeding alone cannot explain the observed fixation. Rather, genetic bottlenecks, detected for 12 of 14 populations, and admixture at population founding may be important sources of fixation. These observations are consistent with a metapopulation model and confirm the importance of regular flooding events, capable of producing suitable habitat and dispersing seed long distances, to the long-term persistence of B. decurrens.     

Spatial genetic structure in a metapopulation of the land snail Cepaea nemoralis (Gastropoda: Helicidae)

Habitat fragmentation is a major force affecting demography and genetic structure of wild populations, especially in agricultural landscapes. The land snail Cepaea nemoralis (L.) was selected to investigate the impact of habitat fragmentation on the spatial genetic structure of an organism with limited dispersal ability. Genetic and morphological patterns were investigated at a local scale of a 500 m transect and a mesoscale of 4 x 4 km in a fragmented agricultural landscape while accounting for variation in the landscape using least-cost models. Analysis of microsatellite loci using expected heterozygosity (HE), pairwise genetic distance (FST/1-FST) and spatial autocorrelograms (Moran's I) as well as shell characteristics revealed spatial structuring at both scales and provided evidence for a metapopulation structure. Genetic diversity was related to morphological diversity regardless of landscape properties. This pointed to bottlenecks caused by founder effects after (re)colonization. Our study suggests that metapopulation structure depended on both landscape features and the shape of the dispersal function. A range of genetic spatial autocorrelation up to 80 m at the local scale and up to 800 m at the mesoscale indicated leptokurtic dispersal patterns. The metapopulation dynamics of C. nemoralis resulted in a patchwork of interconnected, spatially structured subpopulations. They were shaped by gene flow which was affected by landscape features, the dispersal function and an increasing role of genetic drift with distance.     

Genetic Population Structure of Local Populations of the Endangered Saltmarsh Sesarmid Crab Clistocoeloma sinense in Japan

During recent decades, over 40% of Japanese estuarine tidal flats have been lost due to coastal developments. Local populations of the saltmarsh sesarmid crab Clistocoeloma sinense, designated as an endangered species due to the limited suitable saltmarsh habitat available, have decreased accordingly, being now represented as small remnant populations. Several such populations in Tokyo Bay, have been recognised as representing distributional limits of the species. To clarify the genetic diversity and connectivity among local coastal populations of Japanese Clistocoeloma sinense, including those in Tokyo Bay, mitochondrial DNA analyses were conducted in the hope of providing fundamental information for future conservation studies and an understanding of metapopulation dynamics through larval dispersal among local populations. All of the populations sampled indicated low levels of genetic diversity, which may have resulted from recent population bottlenecks or founder events. However, the results also revealed clear genetic differentiation between two enclosed-water populations in Tokyo Bay and Ise-Mikawa Bay, suggesting the existence of a barrier to larval transport between these two water bodies. Since the maintenance of genetic connectivity is a requirement of local population stability, the preservation of extant habitats and restoration of saltmarshes along the coast of Japan may be the most effective measures for conservation of this endangered species.     

Landscape dynamics and evolution of colonizer syndromes: interactions between reproductive effortand dispersal in a metapopulation

The evolutionary consequences of changes in landscape dynamics for the evolution of life history syndromes are studied using a metapopulation model. We consider in turn the long-term effects of a change in the local disturbance rate, in the maximal local population persistence, in habitat productivity, and in habitat fragmentation. We examine the consequences of selective interactions between dispersal and reproductive effort by comparing the outcome of joint evolution to a situation where the species has lost the potential to evolve either its reproductive effort or its dispersal rate. We relax the classical assumption that any occupied site in the metapopulation reaches its carrying capacity immediately after recolonization. Our main conclusions are the following: (1) genetic diversity modifies the range of landscape parameters for which the metapopulation is viable, but it alters very little the qualitative evolutionary trends observed for each trait within this range. Although they are both part of a competition/colonization axis, reproductive effort and dispersal are not substitutable traits: their evolution reflects more directly the change in the landscape dynamics, than a selective interaction among them. (2) no general syndrome of covariation between reproductive effort and dispersal can be predicted: the pattern of association between the two traits depends on the type of change in landscape dynamics and on the saturation level. We review empirical evidence on colonizer syndromes and suggest lines for further empirical work. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Effects of colonization asymmetries on metapopulation persistence

Ocean currents, prevailing winds, and the hierarchical structures of river networks are known to create asymmetries in re-colonization between habitat patches. The impacts of such asymmetries on metapopulation persistence are seldom considered, especially rarely in theoretical studies. Considering three classical models (the island, the stepping stone and the distance-dependent model), we explore how metapopulation persistence is affected by (i) asymmetry in dispersal strength, in which the colonization rate between two patches differs in direction, and (ii) asymmetry in connectivity, in which the overall colonization pattern displays asymmetry (circulating or dendritic networks). Viability can be drastically reduced when directional bias in dispersal strength is higher than 25%. Re-colonization patterns that allow for strong local connectivity provide the highest persistence compared to systems that allow circulation. Finally, asymmetry has relatively weak effects when metapopulations maintain strong general connectivity.