Phenotypic selection and covariation in the life‐history traits of elephant seals: heavier offspring gain a double selective advantage

Early developmental conditions contribute to individual heterogeneity of both phenotypic traits and fitness components, ultimately affecting population dynamics. Although the demographic consequences of ontogenic growth are best quantified using an integrated measure of fitness, most analyses to date have instead studied individual fitness components in isolation. Here, we estimated phenotypic selection on weaning mass in female southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina by analyzing individual‐based data collected between 1986 and 2016 with capture–recapture and matrix projection models. In support of a hypothesis predicting a gradual decrease of weaning mass effects with time since weaning (the replacement hypothesis), we found that the estimated effects of weaning mass on future survival and recruitment probability was of intermediate duration (rather than transient or permanent). Heavier female offspring had improved odds of survival in early life and a higher probability to recruit at an early age. The positive link between weaning mass and recruitment age is noteworthy, considering that pre‐recruitment mortality already imposed a strong selective filter on the population, leaving only the most ‘robust’ individuals to reproduce. The selection gradient on asymptotic population growth rate, a measure of mean absolute fitness, was weaker than selection on first‐year survival and recruitment probabilities. Weaker selection on mean fitness occurs because weaning mass has little impact on adult survival, the fitness component to which the population growth of long‐lived species is most sensitive. These results highlight the need to interpret individual variation in phenotypic traits in a context that considers the demographic pathways between the trait and an inclusive proxy of individual fitness. Although variation in weaning mass do not translate to permanent survival differences among individuals in adulthood, it explains heterogeneity and positive covariation between survival and breeding in early life, which contribute to between‐individual variation in fitness.     

Life‐history evolution under fluctuating density‐dependent selection and the adaptive alignment of pace‐of‐life syndromes

We present a novel perspective on life‐history evolution that combines recent theoretical advances in fluctuating density‐dependent selection with the notion of pace‐of‐life syndromes (POLSs) in behavioural ecology. These ideas posit phenotypic co‐variation in life‐history, physiological, morphological and behavioural traits as a continuum from the highly fecund, short‐lived, bold, aggressive and highly dispersive ‘fast’ types at one end of the POLS to the less fecund, long‐lived, cautious, shy, plastic and socially responsive ‘slow’ types at the other. We propose that such variation in life histories and the associated individual differences in behaviour can be explained through their eco‐evolutionary dynamics with population density – a single and ubiquitous selective factor that is present in all biological systems. Contrasting regimes of environmental stochasticity are expected to affect population density in time and space and create differing patterns of fluctuating density‐dependent selection, which generates variation in fast versus slow life histories within and among populations. We therefore predict that a major axis of phenotypic co‐variation in life‐history, physiological, morphological and behavioural traits (i.e. the POLS) should align with these stochastic fluctuations in the multivariate fitness landscape created by variation in density‐dependent selection. Phenotypic plasticity and/or genetic (co‐)variation oriented along this major POLS axis are thus expected to facilitate rapid and adaptively integrated changes in various aspects of life histories within and among populations and/or species. The fluctuating density‐dependent selection POLS framework presented here therefore provides a series of clear testable predictions, the investigation of which should further our fundamental understanding of life‐history evolution and thus our ability to predict natural population dynamics.     

QUANTIFYING EVOLUTIONARY POTENTIAL OF MARINE FISH LARVAE: HERITABILITY,SELECTION, AND EVOLUTIONARY CONSTRAINTS

For many marine fish, intense larval mortality may provide considerable opportunity for selection, yet much less is known about the evolutionary potential of larval traits. We combined field demographic studies and manipulative experiments to estimate quantitative genetic parameters for both larval size and swimming performance for a natural population of a common coral‐reef fish, the bicolor damselfish (Stegastes partitus). We also examined selection on larval size by synthesizing information from published estimates of selective mortality. We introduce a method that uses the Lande–Arnold framework for examining selection on quantitative traits to empirically reconstruct adaptive landscapes. This method allows the relationship between phenotypic value and fitness components to be described across a broad range of trait values. Our results suggested that despite strong viability selection for large larvae and moderate heritability (h²= 0.29), evolutionary responses of larvae would likely be balanced by reproductive selection favoring mothers that produce more, smaller offspring. Although long‐term evolutionary responses of larval traits may be constrained by size‐number trade‐offs, our results suggest that phenotypic variation in larval size may be an ecologically important source of variability in population dynamics through effects on larval survival and recruitment to benthic populations.     

Evolutionary genetics of maternal effects

Maternal genetic effects (MGEs), where genes expressed by mothers affect the phenotype of their offspring, are important sources of phenotypic diversity in a myriad of organisms. We use a single‐locus model to examine how MGEs contribute patterns of heritable and nonheritable variation and influence evolutionary dynamics in randomly mating and inbreeding populations. We elucidate the influence of MGEs by examining the offspring genotype‐phenotype relationship, which determines how MGEs affect evolutionary dynamics in response to selection on offspring phenotypes. This approach reveals important results that are not apparent from classic quantitative genetic treatments of MGEs. We show that additive and dominance MGEs make different contributions to evolutionary dynamics and patterns of variation, which are differentially affected by inbreeding. Dominance MGEs make the offspring genotype‐phenotype relationship frequency dependent, resulting in the appearance of negative frequency‐dependent selection, while additive MGEs contribute a component of parent‐of‐origin dependent variation. Inbreeding amplifies the contribution of MGEs to the additive genetic variance and, therefore enhances their evolutionary response. Considering evolutionary dynamics of allele frequency change on an adaptive landscape, we show that this landscape differs from the mean fitness surface, and therefore, under some condition, fitness peaks can exist but not be “available” to the evolving population.     

ESTIMATING AND VISUALIZING FITNESS SURFACES USING MARK–RECAPTURE DATA

Understanding how selection operates on a set of phenotypic traits is central to evolutionary biology. Often, it requires estimating survival (or other fitness‐related life‐history traits) which can be difficult to obtain for natural populations because individuals cannot be exhaustively followed. To cope with this issue of imperfect detection, we advocate the use of mark‐recapture data and we provide a general framework for both the estimation of linear and nonlinear selection gradients and the visualization of fitness surfaces. To quantify the strength of selection, the standard second‐order polynomial regression method is integrated in mark‐recapture models. To visualize the form of selection, we use splines to display selection acting on multivariate phenotypes in the most flexible way. We employ Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in a Bayesian framework to estimate model parameters, assessing traits relevance and calculating the optimal amount of smoothing. We illustrate our approach using data from a wild population of Common blackbirds (Turdus merula) to investigate survival in relation to morphological traits, and provide evidence for correlational selection using the new methodology. Overall, the framework we propose will help in exploring the full potential of mark‐recapture data to study natural selection.     

Does the spatial variation in selective pressures explain among-site differences in seed mass? A test with Buxus balearica

Positive effects of seed size on germination and survival can be offset by a greater probability of predation or a poorer dispersal of larger seeds. We hypothesized that spatial variation in local selective pressures acting on seed mass may lead to differences in both optimal and observed seed mass among discrete populations. We first examined the variation in seed mass across a total of 14 populations of Buxus balearica; in six of such populations, we further examined the temporal variation by measuring seed mass during three consecutive years. Second, we evaluated seed mass effects on different recruitment phases (seed rain to seedling establishment) in three populations. Lastly, for these three populations, we estimated the resulting overall phenotypic selection on seed mass during recruitment and compared the observed and the predicted optimal seed masses. Most variation (c. 70%) in seed mass occurred among populations, and although we found inter-annual variation in seed mass, the differences in seed mass among populations were consistent over time. Conflicting selective pressures on seed mass appeared during recruitment, and their direction and strength varied among populations, depending on the relative local importance of seed predation vs. germination and establishment. Observed seed mass matched predicted optimal seed mass in two of the three examined populations, suggesting local adaptative responses to the spatial mosaic of selective pressures.     

Interplay between extreme drift and selection intensities favors the fixation of beneficial mutations in selfing maize populations

Population and quantitative genetic models provide useful approximations to predict long-term selection responses sustaining phenotypic shifts, and underlying multilocus adaptive dynamics. Valid across a broad range of parameters, their use for understanding the adaptive dynamics of small selfing populations undergoing strong selection intensity (thereafter High Drift-High selection regime, HDHS) remains to be explored. Saclay Divergent Selection Experiments (DSEs) on maize flowering time provide an interesting example of populations evolving under HDHS, with significant selection responses over 20 generations in two directions. We combined experimental data from Saclay DSEs, forward individual-based simulations, and theoretical predictions to dissect the evolutionary mechanisms at play in the observed selection responses. We asked two main questions: How do mutations arise, spread, and reach fixation in populations evolving under HDHS? How does the interplay between drift and selection influence observed phenotypic shifts? We showed that the long-lasting response to selection in small populations is due to the rapid fixation of mutations occurring during the generations of selection. Among fixed mutations, we also found a clear signal of enrichment for beneficial mutations revealing a limited cost of selection. Both environmental stochasticity and variation in selection coefficients likely contributed to exacerbate mutational effects, thereby facilitating selection grasp and fixation of small-effect mutations. Together our results highlight that despite a small number of polymorphic loci expected under HDHS, adaptive variation is continuously fueled by a vast mutational target. We discuss our results in the context of breeding and long-term survival of small selfing populations.     

Strong artificial selection in the wild results in predicted small evolutionary change

Estimates of genetic variation and selection allow for quantitative predictions of evolutionary change, at least in controlled laboratory experiments. Natural populations are, however, different in many ways, and natural selection on heritable traits does not always result in phenotypic change. To test whether we were able to predict the evolutionary dynamics of a complex trait measured in a natural, heterogeneous environment, we performed, over an 8-year period, a two-way selection experiment on clutch size in a subdivided island population of great tits (Parus major). Despite strong artificial selection, there was no clear evidence for evolutionary change at the phenotypic level. Environmentally induced differences in clutch size among years are, however, large and can mask evolutionary changes. Indeed, genetic changes in clutch size, inferred from a statistical model, did not deviate systematically from those predicted. Although this shows that estimates of genetic variation and selection can indeed provide quantitative predictions of evolutionary change, also in the wild, it also emphasizes that demonstrating evolution in wild populations is difficult, and that the interpretation of phenotypic trends requires great care.     

LOCAL ADAPTATION MAINTAINS CLINAL VARIATION IN MELANIN‐BASED COLORATION OF EUROPEAN BARN OWLS (TYTO ALBA)

Ecological parameters vary in space, and the resulting heterogeneity of selective forces can drive adaptive population divergence. Clinal variation represents a classical model to study the interplay of gene flow and selection in the dynamics of this local adaptation process. Although geographic variation in phenotypic traits in discrete populations could be remainders of past adaptation, maintenance of adaptive clinal variation requires recurrent selection. Clinal variation in genetically determined traits is generally attributed to adaptation of different genotypes to local conditions along an environmental gradient, although it can as well arise from neutral processes. Here, we investigated whether selection accounts for the strong clinal variation observed in a highly heritable pheomelanin‐based color trait in the European barn owl by comparing spatial differentiation of color and of neutral genes among populations. Barn owl's coloration varies continuously from white in southwestern Europe to reddish‐brown in northeastern Europe. A very low differentiation at neutral genetic markers suggests that substantial gene flow occurs among populations. The persistence of pronounced color differentiation despite this strong gene flow is consistent with the hypothesis that selection is the primary force maintaining color variation among European populations. Therefore, the color cline is most likely the result of local adaptation.     

Sex-biased survival predicts adult sex ratio variation in wild birds

Adult sex ratio (ASR) is a central concept in population demography and breeding system evolution, and has implications for population viability and biodiversity conservation. ASR exhibits immense interspecific variation in wild populations, although the causes of this variation have remained elusive. Using phylogenetic analyses of 187 avian species from 59 families, we show that neither hatching sex ratios nor fledging sex ratios correlate with ASR. However, sex-biased adult mortality is a significant predictor of ASR, and this relationship is robust to 100 alternative phylogenetic hypotheses, and potential ecological and life-history confounds. A significant component of adult mortality bias is sexual selection acting on males, whereas increased reproductive output predicts higher mortality in females. These results provide the most comprehensive insights into ASR variation to date, and suggest that ASR is an outcome of selective processes operating differentially on adult males and females. Therefore, revealing the causes of ASR variation in wild populations is essential for understanding breeding systems and population dynamics.     

Riding across the selection landscape: fitness consequences of annual variation in reproductive characteristics

Evolutionary models estimating phenotypic selection in character size usually assume that the character is invariant across reproductive bouts. We show that variation in the size of reproductive traits may be large over multiple events and can influence fitness in organisms where these traits are produced anew each season. With data from populations of two orchid species, Caladenia valida and Tolumnia variegata, we used Bayesian statistics to investigate the effect on the distribution in fitness of individuals when the fitness landscape is not flat and when characters vary across reproductive bouts. Inconsistency in character size across reproductive periods within an individual increases the uncertainty of mean fitness and, consequently, the uncertainty in individual fitness. The trajectory of selection is likely to be muddled as a consequence of variation in morphology of individuals across reproductive bouts. The frequency and amplitude of such changes will certainly affect the dynamics between selection and genetic drift.     

Ontogenetic and spatial variation in size‐selective mortality of a marine fish

Although body size can affect individual fitness, ontogenetic and spatial variation in the ecology of an organism may determine the relative advantages of size and growth. During an 8‐year field study in the Bahamas, we examined selective mortality on size and growth throughout the entire reef‐associated life phase of a common coral‐reef fish, Stegastes partitus (the bicolour damselfish). On average, faster‐growing juveniles experienced greater mortality, though as adults, larger individuals had higher survival. Comparing patterns of selection observed at four separate populations revealed that greater population density was associated with stronger selection for larger adult size. Large adults may be favoured because they are superior competitors and less susceptible to gape‐limited predators. Laboratory experiments suggested that selective mortality of fast‐growing juveniles was likely because of risk‐prone foraging behaviour. These patterns suggest that variation in ecological interactions may lead to complex patterns of lifetime selection on body size.     

Differences in the temporal dynamics of phenotypic selection among fitness components in the wild

The balance of selection acting through different fitness components (e.g. fecundity, mating success, survival) determines the potential tempo and trajectory of adaptive evolution. Yet the extent to which the temporal dynamics of phenotypic selection may vary among fitness components is poorly understood. Here, we compiled a database of 3978 linear selection coefficients from temporally replicated studies of selection in wild populations to address this question. Across studies, we find that multi-year selection through mating success and fecundity is stronger than selection through survival, but varies less in direction. We also report that selection through mating success varies more in long-term average strength than selection through either survival or fecundity. The consistency in direction and stronger long-term average strength of selection through mating success and fecundity suggests that selection through these fitness components should cause more persistent directional evolution relative to selection through survival. Similar patterns were apparent for the subset of studies that evaluated the temporal dynamics of selection on traits simultaneously using several different fitness components, but few such studies exist. Taken together, these results reveal key differences in the temporal dynamics of selection acting through different fitness components, but they also reveal important limitations in our understanding of how selection drives adaptive evolution.     

Sexual selection and the evolutionary dynamics of the major histocompatibility complex

The genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) are a key component of the adaptive immune system and among the most variable loci in the vertebrate genome. Pathogen-mediated natural selection and MHC-based disassortative mating are both thought to structure MHC polymorphism, but their effects have proven difficult to discriminate in natural systems. Using the first model of MHC dynamics incorporating both survival and reproduction, we demonstrate that natural and sexual selection produce distinctive signatures of MHC allelic diversity with critical implications for understanding host–pathogen dynamics. While natural selection produces the Red Queen dynamics characteristic of host–parasite interactions, disassortative mating stabilizes allele frequencies, damping major fluctuations in dominant alleles and protecting functional variants against drift. This subtle difference generates a complex interaction between MHC allelic diversity and population size. In small populations, the stabilizing effects of sexual selection moderate the effects of drift, whereas pathogen-mediated selection accelerates the loss of functionally important genetic diversity. Natural selection enhances MHC allelic variation in larger populations, with the highest levels of diversity generated by the combined action of pathogen-mediated selection and disassortative mating. MHC-based sexual selection may help to explain how functionally important genetic variation can be maintained in populations of conservation concern.     

Disruptive viability selection on adult exploratory behaviour in eastern chipmunks

Heterogeneous forces of selection associated with fluctuating environments are recognized as important factors involved in the maintenance of inter‐individual phenotypic variance within populations. Consistent behavioural differences over time and across situations (e.g. personality) are increasingly cited as examples of individual variation observed within populations. However, the suggestion that heterogeneous selective pressures target different animal personalities remains largely untested in the wild. In this 5‐year study, we investigated the dynamics of viability selection on a personality trait, exploration, in a population of eastern chipmunks (Tamias striatus) experiencing substantial seasonal variations in weather conditions and food availability associated with masting trees. Contrary to our expectations, we found no evidence of fluctuating selection on exploration. Instead, we found strong disruptive viability selection on adult exploration behaviour, independent of seasonal variations. Individuals with either low or high exploration scores were almost twice as likely to survive over a 6‐month period compared with individuals with intermediate scores. We found no evidence of viability selection on juvenile exploration. Our results highlight that disruptive selection might play an important role in the maintenance of phenotypic variance of wild populations through its effect on different personality types across temporally varying environmental conditions.     

Natural selection. II. Developmental variability and evolutionary rate

In classical evolutionary theory, genetic variation provides the source of heritable phenotypic variation on which natural selection acts. Against this classical view, several theories have emphasized that developmental variability and learning enhance nonheritable phenotypic variation, which in turn can accelerate evolutionary response. In this paper, I show how developmental variability alters evolutionary dynamics by smoothing the landscape that relates genotype to fitness. In a fitness landscape with multiple peaks and valleys, developmental variability can smooth the landscape to provide a directly increasing path of fitness to the highest peak. Developmental variability also allows initial survival of a genotype in response to novel or extreme environmental challenge, providing an opportunity for subsequent adaptation. This initial survival advantage arises from the way in which developmental variability smooths and broadens the fitness landscape. Ultimately, the synergism between developmental processes and genetic variation sets evolutionary rate.     

Sexual Antagonism,Temporally Fluctuating Selection,and Variable Dominance Affect a Regulatory Polymorphism in Drosophila melanogaster

Understanding how genetic variation is maintained within species is a major goal of evolutionary genetics that can shed light on the preservation of biodiversity. Here, we examined the maintenance of a regulatory single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) of the X-linked Drosophila melanogaster gene fezzik. The derived variant at this site is at intermediate frequency in many worldwide populations but absent in populations from the ancestral species range in sub-Saharan Africa. We collected and genotyped wild-caught individuals from a single European population biannually over a period of 5 years, which revealed an overall difference in allele frequency between the sexes and a consistent change in allele frequency across seasons in females but not in males. Modeling based on the observed allele and genotype frequencies suggested that both sexually antagonistic and temporally fluctuating selection may help maintain variation at this site. The derived variant is predicted to be female-beneficial and mostly recessive; however, there was uncertainty surrounding our dominance estimates and long-term modeling projections suggest that it is more likely to be dominant. By examining gene expression phenotypes, we found that phenotypic dominance was variable and dependent upon developmental stage and genetic background, suggesting that dominance may be variable at this locus. We further determined that fezzik expression and genotype are associated with starvation resistance in a sex-dependent manner, suggesting a potential phenotypic target of selection. By characterizing the mechanisms of selection acting on this SNP, our results improve our understanding of how selection maintains genetic and phenotypic variation in natural populations.     

An integrated analysis of phenotypic selection on insect body size and development time

Most studies of phenotypic selection do not estimate selection or fitness surfaces for multiple components of fitness within a unified statistical framework. This makes it difficult or impossible to assess how selection operates on traits through variation in multiple components of fitness. We describe a new generation of aster models that can evaluate phenotypic selection by accounting for timing of life‐history transitions and their effect on population growth rate, in addition to survival and reproductive output. We use this approach to estimate selection on body size and development time for a field population of the herbivorous insect, Manduca sexta (Lepidoptera: Sphingidae). Estimated fitness surfaces revealed strong and significant directional selection favoring both larger adult size (via effects on egg counts) and more rapid rates of early larval development (via effects on larval survival). Incorporating the timing of reproduction and its influence on population growth rate into the analysis resulted in larger values for size in early larval development at which fitness is maximized, and weaker selection on size in early larval development. These results illustrate how the interplay of different components of fitness can influence selection on size and development time. This integrated modeling framework can be readily applied to studies of phenotypic selection via multiple fitness components in other systems.     

Cascading life-history interactions: alternative density-dependent pathways drive recruitment dynamics in a freshwater fish

Although density-dependent mechanisms in early life-history are important regulators of recruitment in many taxa, consequences of such mechanisms on other life-history stages are poorly understood. To examine interacting and cascading effects of mechanisms acting on different life-history stages, we stocked experimental ponds with fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) at two different densities. We quantified growth and survival of the stocked fish, the eggs they produced, and the resulting offspring during their first season of life. Per-capita production and survival of eggs were inversely related to density of stocked fish; significant egg cannibalism by stocked minnows resulted in initial young-of-the-year (YOY) densities that were inversely related to adult densities. Subsequent growth and survival of YOY were then inversely related to these initial YOY densities, and survival of YOY was selective for larger fish. Because of these compensatory processes in the egg and YOY stages, treatments did not differ in YOY abundance and mean size at the end of the growing season. Because of differences in the intensity of size-selective mortality, however, variation in end-of season sizes of YOY was strongly (and inversely) related to densities of stocked fish. When mortality was severe in the egg stage (high densities of stocked fish), final YOY size distributions were more variable than when the dominant mortality was size-selective in the YOY stage (low stocked fish densities). These differences in size variation could have subsequent recruitment consequences, as overwinter survival is typically selective for YOY fish larger than a critical threshold size. Density-dependent effects on a given life stage are not independent, but will be influenced by earlier stages; alternative recruitment pathways can result when processes at earlier stages differ in magnitude or selectivity. Appreciation of these cascading effects should enhance our overall understanding of the dynamics of stage-structured populations.     

Testing the molecular and evolutionary causes of a 'leapfrog' pattern of geographical variation in coloration

Understanding the mechanisms accounting for the evolution of phenotypic diversity is central to evolutionary biology. We use molecular and phenotypic data to test hypotheses for 'leapfrog' patterns of geographical variation, in which phenotypically similar, disjunct populations are separated by distinct populations of the same species. Phylogenetic reconstructions revealed independent evolution of melanic plumage characters in different populations in the Neotropical avian genus Arremon. Thus, phenotypic similarities between distant populations cannot be explained by close phylogenetic affinity. Nor can they be attributed to recurring mutations in the MC1R gene, a locus involved in melanic pigmentation. A coalescent analysis indicates that plumage traits have become fixed at a faster rate than expected under genetic drift, suggesting that selection underlies their repeated evolution. In contrast to views that genetic drift drives phenotypic differentiation in Neotropical montane birds, our results imply that geographical variation preceding speciation may reflect the action of deterministic selective processes.