Patterns of natural selection on size at metamorphosis in water frogs

Strategies for optimal metamorphosis are key adaptations in organisms with complex life cycles, and the components of the larval growth environment causing variation in this trait are well studied empirically and theoretically. However, when relating these findings to a broader evolutionary or ecological context, usually the following assumptions are made: (1) size at metamorphosis positively relates to future fitness, and (2) the larval growth environment affects fitness mainly through its effect on timing of and size at metamorphosis. These assumptions remain poorly tested, because data on postmetamorphic fitness components are still rare. We created variation in timing of and size at metamorphosis by manipulating larval competition, nonlethal presence of predators, pond drying, and onset of larval development, and measured the consequences for subsequent terrestrial survival and growth in 1564 individually marked water frogs (Rana lessonae and R. esculenta), raised in enclosures in their natural environment. Individuals metamorphosing at a large size had an increased chance of survival during the following terrestrial stage (mean linear selection gradient: 0.09), grew faster and were larger at maturity than individuals metamorphosing at smaller sizes. Late metamorphosing individuals had a lower survival rate (mean linear selection gradient: -0.03) and grew more slowly than early metamorphosing ones. We found these patterns to be consistent over the three years of the study and the two species, and the results did not depend on the nature of the larval growth manipulation. Furthermore, individuals did not compensate for a small size at metamorphosis by enhancing their postmetamorphic growth. Thus, we found simple relationships between larval growth and postmetamorphic fitness components, and support for this frequently made assumption. Our results suggest postmetamorphic selection for fast larval growth and provide a quantitative estimate for the water frog example.     

Natural selection on body size is mediated by multiple interacting factors: a comparison of beetle populations varying naturally and experimentally in body size

Body size varies considerably among species and among populations within species, exhibiting many repeatable patterns. However, which sources of selection generate geographic patterns, and which components of fitness mediate evolution of body size, are not well understood. For many animals, resource quality and intraspecific competition may mediate selection on body size producing large-scale geographic patterns. In two sequential experiments, we examine how variation in larval competition and resource quality (seed size) affects the fitness consequences of variation in body size in a scramble-competing seed-feeding beetle, Stator limbatus. Specifically, we compared fitness components among three natural populations of S. limbatus that vary in body size, and then among three lineages of beetles derived from a single base population artificially selected to vary in size, all reared on three sizes of seeds at variable larval density. The effects of larval competition and seed size on larval survival and development time were similar for larger versus smaller beetles. However, larger-bodied beetles suffered a greater reduction in adult body mass with decreasing seed size and increasing larval density; the relative advantage of being large decreased with decreasing seed size and increasing larval density. There were highly significant interactions between the effects of seed size and larval density on body size, and a significant three-way interaction (population-by-density-by-seed size), indicating that environmental effects on the fitness consequences of being large are nonadditive. Our study demonstrates how multiple ecological variables (resource availability and resource competition) interact to affect organismal fitness components, and that such interactions can mediate natural selection on body size. Studying individual factors influencing selection on body size may lead to misleading results given the potential for nonlinear interactions among selective agents.     

Phenotypic variation and selective mortality as major drivers of recruitment variability in fishes

An individual's phenotype will usually influence its probability of survival. However, when evaluating the dynamics of populations, the role of selective mortality is not always clear. Not all mortality is selective, patterns of selective mortality may vary, and it is often unknown how selective mortality compares or interacts with other sources of mortality. As a result, there is seldom a clear expectation for how changes in the phenotypic composition of populations will translate into differences in average survival. We address these issues by evaluating how selective mortality affects recruitment of fish populations. First, we provide a quantitative review of selective mortality. Our results show that most of the mortality during early life is selective, and that variation in phenotypes can have large effects on survival. Next, we describe an analytical framework that accounts for variation in selection, while also describing the amount of selective mortality experienced by different cohorts recruiting to a single population. This framework is based on reconstructing fitness surfaces from phenotypic selection measurements, and can be employed for either single or multiple traits. Finally, we show how this framework can be integrated with models of density‐dependent survival to improve our understanding of recruitment variability and population dynamics.     

QUANTIFYING EVOLUTIONARY POTENTIAL OF MARINE FISH LARVAE: HERITABILITY,SELECTION, AND EVOLUTIONARY CONSTRAINTS

For many marine fish, intense larval mortality may provide considerable opportunity for selection, yet much less is known about the evolutionary potential of larval traits. We combined field demographic studies and manipulative experiments to estimate quantitative genetic parameters for both larval size and swimming performance for a natural population of a common coral‐reef fish, the bicolor damselfish (Stegastes partitus). We also examined selection on larval size by synthesizing information from published estimates of selective mortality. We introduce a method that uses the Lande–Arnold framework for examining selection on quantitative traits to empirically reconstruct adaptive landscapes. This method allows the relationship between phenotypic value and fitness components to be described across a broad range of trait values. Our results suggested that despite strong viability selection for large larvae and moderate heritability (h²= 0.29), evolutionary responses of larvae would likely be balanced by reproductive selection favoring mothers that produce more, smaller offspring. Although long‐term evolutionary responses of larval traits may be constrained by size‐number trade‐offs, our results suggest that phenotypic variation in larval size may be an ecologically important source of variability in population dynamics through effects on larval survival and recruitment to benthic populations.     

Fitness consequences of larval traits persist across the metamorphic boundary

Metamorphosis is thought to provide an adaptive decoupling between traits specialized for each life-history stage in species with complex life cycles. However, an increasing number of studies are finding that larval traits can carry-over to influence postmetamorphic performance, suggesting that these life-history stages may not be free to evolve independently of each other. We used a phenotypic selection framework to compare the relative and interactive effects of larval size, time to hatching, and time to settlement on postmetamorphic survival and growth in a marine invertebrate, Styela plicata. Time to hatching was the only larval trait found to be under directional selection, individuals that took more time to hatch into larvae survived better after metamorphosis but grew more slowly. Nonlinear selection was found to act on multivariate trait combinations, once again acting in opposite directions for selection acting via survival and growth. Individuals with above average values of larval traits were most likely to survive, but surviving individuals with intermediate larval traits grew to the largest size. These results demonstrate that larval traits can have multiple, complex fitness consequences that persist across the metamorphic boundary; and thus postmetamorphic selection pressures may constrain the evolution of larval traits.     

Sequential predator effects across three life stages of the African tree frog, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Hyperolius spinigularis</Emphasis>

While theoretical studies of the timing of key switch points in complex life cycles such as hatching and metamorphosis have stressed the importance of considering multiple stages, most empirical work has focused on a single life stage. However, the relationship between the fitness components of different life stages may be complex. Ontogenetic switch points such as hatching and metamorphosis do not represent new beginnings—carryover effects across stages can arise when environmental effects on the density and/or traits of early ontogenetic stages subsequently alter mortality or growth in later stages. In this study, I examine the effects of egg- and larval-stage predators on larval performance, size at metamorphosis, and post-metamorphic predation in the African tree frog Hyperolius spinigularis. I monitored the density and survival of arboreal H. spinigularis clutches in the field to estimate how much egg-stage predation reduced the input of tadpoles into the pond. I then conducted experiments to determine: (1) how reductions in initial larval density due to egg predators affect larval survival and mass and age at metamorphosis in the presence and absence of aquatic larval predators, dragonfly larvae, and (2) how differences in mass or age at metamorphosis arising from predation in the embryonic and larval environments affect encounters with post-metamorphic predators, fishing spiders. Reduction in larval densities due to egg predation tended to increase per capita larval survival, decrease larval duration and increase mass at metamorphosis. Larval predators decreased larval survival and had density-dependent effects on larval duration and mass at metamorphosis. The combined effects of embryonic and larval-stage predators increased mass at metamorphosis of survivors by 91%. Larger mass at metamorphosis may have immediate fitness benefits, as larger metamorphs had higher survival in encounters with fishing spiders. Thus, the effects of predators early in ontogeny can alter predation risk even two life stages later.     

Estimating selection on neonatal traits in red deer using elasticity path analysis

Van Tienderen recently published a method that links selection gradients between a phenotypic trait and multiple fitness components with the effects of these fitness components on the population growth rate (mean absolute fitness). The method allows selection to be simultaneously estimated across multiple fitness components in a population dynamic framework. In this paper we apply the method to a population of red deer living in the North Block of the Isle of Rum, Scotland. We show that (1) selection on birth date and birth weight can operate through multiple fitness components simultaneously; (2) our estimates of the response to selection are consistent with the observed change in trait values that we cannot explain with environmental and phenotypic covariates; (3) selection on both traits has fluctuated over the course of the study; (4) selection operates through different fitness components in different years; and (5) no environmental covariates correlate with selection because different fitness components respond to density and climatic variation in contrasting ways.     

Bigger is not always better: conflicting selective pressures on seed size in Quercus ilex

Most theoretical treatments of the evolutionary ecology of offspring size assume a simple and direct effect of investment per offspring on offspring fitness. In this paper I experimentally determine the relationship between seed mass and several main fitness components of the oak Quercus ilex, to estimate phenotypic selection acting on seed mass during the early life cycle and to discover any potential selective conflicts occurring between different stages from dispersal to establishment. I found a positive effect of acorn size on most fitness components related to seedling establishment. Large size increased germination rate and seedling survival, accelerated germination timing, and enhanced seedling growth. Nevertheless, there was also a direct negative effect of acorn size on survival to predation, because large acorns were highly preferred by the main postdispersal seed predators at the study site, wild boars and wood mice. Because of the low probability of escape from predation, the fitness of large acorns estimated on this component was significantly lower than the fitness of smaller acorns. Therefore, seed size affected fitness in two different ways, yielding opposing and conflicting selective forces. These findings suggest that the general assumption that offspring fitness is a fixed positive function of seed size needs to be reconsidered for some systems. The existence of conflicting selection might explain the occurrence of an optimal seed size in some plant species without invoking a seed number-size trade-off.     

ESTIMATING AND VISUALIZING FITNESS SURFACES USING MARK–RECAPTURE DATA

Understanding how selection operates on a set of phenotypic traits is central to evolutionary biology. Often, it requires estimating survival (or other fitness‐related life‐history traits) which can be difficult to obtain for natural populations because individuals cannot be exhaustively followed. To cope with this issue of imperfect detection, we advocate the use of mark‐recapture data and we provide a general framework for both the estimation of linear and nonlinear selection gradients and the visualization of fitness surfaces. To quantify the strength of selection, the standard second‐order polynomial regression method is integrated in mark‐recapture models. To visualize the form of selection, we use splines to display selection acting on multivariate phenotypes in the most flexible way. We employ Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in a Bayesian framework to estimate model parameters, assessing traits relevance and calculating the optimal amount of smoothing. We illustrate our approach using data from a wild population of Common blackbirds (Turdus merula) to investigate survival in relation to morphological traits, and provide evidence for correlational selection using the new methodology. Overall, the framework we propose will help in exploring the full potential of mark‐recapture data to study natural selection.     

Scaling up phenotypic plasticity with hierarchical population models

Individuals respond to different environments by developing different phenotypes, which is generally seen as a mechanism through which individuals can buffer adverse environmental conditions and increase their fitness. To understand the consequences of phenotypic plasticity it is necessary to study how changing a particular trait of an individual affects either its survival, growth, reproduction or a combination of these demographic vital rates (i.e. fitness components). Integrating vital rate changes due to phenotypic plasticity into models of population dynamics allows detailed study of how phenotypic changes scale up to higher levels of integration and forms an excellent tool to distinguish those plastic trait changes that really matter at the population level. A modeling approach also facilitates studying systems that are even more complex: traits and vital rates often co-vary or trade-off with other traits that may show plastic responses over environmental gradients. Here we review recent developments in the literature on population models that attempt to include phenotypic plasticity with a range of evolutionary assumptions and modeling techniques. We present in detail a model framework in which environmental impacts on population dynamics can be followed analytically through direct and indirect pathways that importantly incorporate phenotypic plasticity, trait-trait and trait-vital rate relationships. We illustrate this framework with two case studies: the population-level consequences of phenotypic responses to nutrient enrichment of plant species occurring in nutrient-poor habitats and of responses to changes in flooding regimes due to climate change. We conclude with exciting prospects for further development of this framework: selection analyses, modeling advances and the inclusion of spatial dynamics by considering dispersal traits as well.     

SELECTION ON MOTHERS AND OFFSPRING: WHOSE PHENOTYPE IS IT AND DOES IT MATTER?

Reproductive and early life-history traits can be considered aspects of either offspring or maternal phenotype, and their evolution will therefore depend on selection operating through offspring and maternal components of fitness. Furthermore, selection at these levels may be antagonistic, with optimal offspring and maternal fitness occurring at different phenotypic values. We examined selection regimes on the correlated traits of birth weight, birth date, and litter size in Soay sheep (Ovis aries) using data from a long-term study of a free-living population on the archipelago of St. Kilda, Scotland. We tested the hypothesis that selective constraints on the evolution of the multivariate phenotype arise through antagonistic selection, either acting at offspring and maternal levels, or on correlated aspects of phenotype. All three traits were found to be under selection through variance in short-term and lifetime measures of fitness. Analysis of lifetime fitness revealed strong positive directional selection on birth weight and weaker selection for increased birth date at both levels. However, there was also evidence for stabilizing selection on these traits at the maternal level, with reduced fitness at high phenotypic values indicating lower phenotypic optima for mothers than for offspring. Additionally, antagonistic selection was found on litter size. From the offspring's point of view it is better to be born a singleton, whereas maternal fitness increases with average litter size. The decreased fitness of twins is caused by their reduced birth weight; therefore, this antagonistic selection likely results from trade-offs between litter size and birth weight that have different optimal resolutions with respect to offspring and maternal fitness. Our results highlight how selection regimes may vary depending on the assignment of reproductive and early life-history traits to either offspring or maternal phenotype.     

Temperature‐ and sex‐related effects of serine protease alleles on larval development in the Glanville fritillary butterfly

The body reserves of adult Lepidoptera are accumulated during larval development. In the Glanville fritillary butterfly, larger body size increases female fecundity, but in males fast larval development and early eclosion, rather than large body size, increase mating success and hence fitness. Larval growth rate is highly heritable, but genetic variation associated with larval development is largely unknown. By comparing the Glanville fritillary population living in the Åland Islands in northern Europe with a population in Nantaizi in China, within the source of the post‐glacial range expansion, we identified candidate genes with reduced variation in Åland, potentially affected by selection under cooler climatic conditions than in Nantaizi. We conducted an association study of larval growth traits by genotyping the extremes of phenotypic trait distributions for 23 SNPs in 10 genes. Three genes in clip‐domain serine protease family were associated with larval growth rate, development time and pupal weight. Additive effects of two SNPs in the prophenoloxidase‐activating proteinase‐3 (ProPO3) gene, related to melanization, showed elevated growth rate in high temperature but reduced growth rate in moderate temperature. The allelic effects of the vitellin‐degrading protease precursor gene on development time were opposite in the two sexes, one genotype being associated with long development time and heavy larvae in females but short development time in males. Sexually antagonistic selection is here evident in spite of sexual size dimorphism.     

SELECTION ON HERBIVORE LIFE-HISTORY TRAITS BY THE FIRST AND THIRD TROPHIC LEVELS: THE DEVIL AND THE DEEP BLUE SEA REVISITED

Abstract The timing of life‐history events in insects can have important consequences for both survival and reproduction. For insect herbivores with complex life histories, selection is predicted to favor those combinations of traits that increase the size at metamorphosis while minimizing the risk of mortality from natural enemies. Studies quantifying selection on life‐history traits in natural insect herbivore populations, however, have been rare. The purpose of this study was to measure phenotypic selection imposed by elements of the first and third trophic levels on variation in two life‐history traits, the timing of egg hatch and pupal mass, in a population of oak‐feeding caterpillars, Psilocorsis quercicella (Lepidoptera: Oecophoridae). Larvae were collected from the field throughout each of two generations per year for three years and reared to determine the effects of the date of egg hatch on both the risk of attack from parasitoids and the pupal mass of the survivors. The direction and strength of phenotypic selection attributed to aspects of the first and third trophic levels, as well as their combined effects, on the date of egg hatch was measured for each of the six generations. Heritabilities of and genetic correlations between pupal mass and the date of adult emergence from diapause (the life‐history trait expected to have the largest influence on the timing of egg hatch, and thus larval development) were estimated from laboratory matings. In four of the six generations examined, significant directional selection attributed to the first trophic level was detected, always favoring early‐hatching cohorts predicted to experience higher leaf quality than late‐hatching cohorts. Directional phenotypic selection by the third trophic level was detected in only one of three years, and in that year the direction of selection was in opposite directions during the two successive generations. The combined effect of selection by both trophic levels indicated that the third trophic level acted to either reduce or enhance the more predictable pattern of selection attributed to the first trophic level. In addition, I found evidence of truncation selection acting to increase the mean and decrease the variance of pupal mass during the pupa‐adult transition in the laboratory. Pupal mass and diapause duration were found to vary significantly among full‐sibling families; upper bounds for heritability estimates were 0.57 and 0.30, respectively. Furthermore, these two traits were found to be positively genetically correlated (families with larger pupae had longer diapause durations), resulting in a fitness trade‐off, because larger pupae enjoy higher survival through metamorphosis and female fecundity but emerge later, when average leaf quality for offspring is generally poorer.     

Phenotypic selection and covariation in the life‐history traits of elephant seals: heavier offspring gain a double selective advantage

Early developmental conditions contribute to individual heterogeneity of both phenotypic traits and fitness components, ultimately affecting population dynamics. Although the demographic consequences of ontogenic growth are best quantified using an integrated measure of fitness, most analyses to date have instead studied individual fitness components in isolation. Here, we estimated phenotypic selection on weaning mass in female southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina by analyzing individual‐based data collected between 1986 and 2016 with capture–recapture and matrix projection models. In support of a hypothesis predicting a gradual decrease of weaning mass effects with time since weaning (the replacement hypothesis), we found that the estimated effects of weaning mass on future survival and recruitment probability was of intermediate duration (rather than transient or permanent). Heavier female offspring had improved odds of survival in early life and a higher probability to recruit at an early age. The positive link between weaning mass and recruitment age is noteworthy, considering that pre‐recruitment mortality already imposed a strong selective filter on the population, leaving only the most ‘robust’ individuals to reproduce. The selection gradient on asymptotic population growth rate, a measure of mean absolute fitness, was weaker than selection on first‐year survival and recruitment probabilities. Weaker selection on mean fitness occurs because weaning mass has little impact on adult survival, the fitness component to which the population growth of long‐lived species is most sensitive. These results highlight the need to interpret individual variation in phenotypic traits in a context that considers the demographic pathways between the trait and an inclusive proxy of individual fitness. Although variation in weaning mass do not translate to permanent survival differences among individuals in adulthood, it explains heterogeneity and positive covariation between survival and breeding in early life, which contribute to between‐individual variation in fitness.     

Selection on body size and sexual size dimorphism differs between host species in a seed-feeding beetle

Sexual size dimorphism varies substantially among populations and species but we have little understanding of the sources of selection generating this variation. We used path analysis to study how oviposition host affects selection on body size in a seed-feeding beetle (Stator limbatus) in which males contribute large ejaculates (nuptial gifts) to females. Females use nutrients in these ejaculates for egg production. Male body size, which affects ejaculate size, affects female fecundity and is thus under fecundity selection similar in magnitude to the fecundity selection on female body size. We show that when eggs are laid on a host on which larval mortality is low (seeds of Acacia greggii) fecundity predicts fitness very well and fecundity selection is the major source of selection on both male and female adult size. In contrast, when eggs are laid on a host on which larval mortality is high (seeds of Parkinsonia florida) fecundity poorly predicts fitness such that fecundity selection is relaxed on both male and female size. However, because egg size affects larval mortality on this poor host (P. florida) there is selection on female size via the female size --> egg size --> fitness path; this selection via egg size offsets the reduction in fecundity selection on female, but not male, body size. Thus, differences in host suitability (due to differences in larval mortality) affect the relative importance of two sources of selection on adult body size; fecundity selection on both male and female body size is lower on the poor quality host (P. florida) relative to the high quality host (A. greggii) whereas selection on female body size via effects of egg size on offspring survival (body size --> egg size --> fitness) is greater on the poor quality host relative to the high quality host. Because selection via the egg size path affects only females the difference in larval survival between hosts shifts the relative magnitude of selection on female vs. male size. Researchers working on other study systems should be alerted to the possible importance of subtle, but consequential, indirect selection on their study organisms.     

Variability in water temperature affects trait-mediated survival of a newly settled coral reef fish

As animals with complex life cycles metamorphose from one stage to the next, carry-over effects from earlier stages can affect future mortality. To examine the relationship between early life history traits and survival, seven monthly cohorts of newly-settled bluehead wrasse Thalassoma bifasciatum were collected immediately after settlement and over sequential 3-day periods. Otolith analysis was used to quantify mean larval and juvenile growth rates, pelagic larval duration (PLD), and settlement size and condition of different age classes to identify the traits most important for survival. Overall, survivors tended to have shorter PLDs, to settle at smaller sizes and higher condition levels, and to exhibit faster early juvenile growth. Water temperature contributed to among-cohort variability in traits as warmer water led to faster larval and juvenile growth and shorter PLDs. Trait-specific fitness functions demonstrated that temperature can influence fitness by changing the nature of selection on each trait. Estimates of selection intensity revealed that settlement condition contributed the most to variation in fitness across cohorts, followed by juvenile growth. Frequent loss of low settlement condition individuals and occasional loss of the very highest condition fish suggest that particularly high settlement condition during the warmest temperatures may be detrimental. Not only does the quality of settlers vary over time, but selective loss of individuals with particular phenotypic traits is not pervasive and can vary with environmental conditions such as temperature.     

Temperature dependence of fitness components in geographical populations of Drosophila melanogaster: changing the association between size and fitness

Contrary to the conventional wisdom 'bigger is better', evolution at high temperature invariably leads to small individuals in Drosophila melanogaster . Natural selection is known to be responsible, meaning that genotypes that are small because of adaptation to high temperature must have some temperature dependent fitness advantage. In this study we consider both preadult and adult fitness components, and show that large adults from a cold adapted population significantly outperform small adults from a warm adapted population only when tested at low temperature and low larval density. In all other conditions 'bigger is not necessarily better', meaning that environmental influences are capable of altering the association between size and fitness. Yet, 'smaller wasn't better either' under any condition, when considering the overall measure of fitness. Examination of individual fitness components revealed population by temperature interaction in preadult survival; this interaction is potentially capable of explaining the temperature specific advantage of small adult body size. At high temperature, the warm adapted population exhibits superior preadult survival while producing small adults. Geographical variation in adult body size seems to be the result of selection on larval growth and competitive strategies, resulting in alterations in the association between fitness components.  © 2003 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2003, 80 , 717–725.     

Density dependence, lifespan and the evolutionary dynamics of longevity

Longevity is a life-history trait that is shaped by natural selection. Evolution will shape mortality trajectories and lifespans, but until now the evolutionary analysis of longevity is based principally on a density-independent (Euler-Lotka) framework. The effects of density dependence on the evolution of lifespan and mortality remain largely unexplored. We investigate the influence of different population demographies on the evolution of longevity, and show how these can be linked to adaptive radiations. We present a range of models to explore the intraspecific and interspecific density effects on longevity and, consequently, diversification. We show how the magnitude, type, and timing of mutation can also affect fitness, invasion and diversification. We argue that fitness of alternative strategies under a range of different demographic structures leads to flat, as opposed to rugged, landscapes and that these flat fitness surfaces are important in the evolution of lifespan and senescence.     

Age-specific fitness components and their temporal variation in the barn owl

Theory predicts that temporal variability plays an important role in the evolution of life histories, but empirical studies evaluating this prediction are rare. In constant environments, fitness can be measured by the population growth rate lambda, and the sensitivity of lambda to changes in fitness components estimates selection on these traits. In variable environments, fitness is measured by the stochastic growth rate lambda(S), and stochastic sensitivities estimate selection pressure. Here we examine age-specific schedules for reproduction and survival in a barn owl population (Tyto alba). We estimated how temporal variability affected fitness and selection, accounting for sampling variance. Despite large sample sizes of old individuals, we found no strong evidence for senescence. The most variable fitness components were associated with reproduction. Survival was less variable. Stochastic simulations showed that the observed variation decreased fitness by about 30%, but the sensitivities of lambda and lambda(S) to changes in all fitness components were almost equal, suggesting that temporal variation had negligible effects on selection. We obtained these results despite high observed variability in the fitness components and relatively short generation time of the study organism, a situation in which temporal variability should be particularly important for natural selection and early senescence is expected.     

Evolutionary stasis of a heritable morphological trait in a wild fish population despite apparent directional selection

Comparing observed versus theoretically expected evolutionary responses is important for our understanding of the evolutionary process, and for assessing how species may cope with anthropogenic change. Here, we document directional selection for larger female size in Atlantic salmon, using pedigree‐derived estimates of lifetime reproductive success as a fitness measure. We show the trait is heritable and, thus, capable of responding to selection. The Breeder's Equation, which predicts microevolution as the product of phenotypic selection and heritability, predicted evolution of larger size. This was at odds, however, with the observed lack of either phenotypic or genetic temporal trends in body size, a so‐called “paradox of stasis.” To investigate this paradox, we estimated the additive genetic covariance between trait and fitness, which provides a prediction of evolutionary change according to Robertson's secondary theorem of selection (STS) that is unbiased by missing variables. The STS prediction was consistent with the observed stasis. Decomposition of phenotypic selection gradients into genetic and environmental components revealed a potential upward bias, implying unmeasured factors that covary with trait and fitness. These results showcase the power of pedigreed, wild population studies—which have largely been limited to birds and mammals—to study evolutionary processes on contemporary timescales.