Ecological communities are vulnerable to realistic extinction sequences

Loss of species will directly change the structure and potentially the dynamics of ecological communities, which in turn may lead to additional species loss (secondary extinctions) due to direct and/or indirect effects (e.g. loss of resources or altered population dynamics). Furthermore, the vulnerability of food webs to repeated species loss is expected to be affected by food web topology, species interactions, as well as the order in which species go extinct. Species traits such as body size, abundance and connectivity might determine a species’ vulnerability to extinction and, thus, the order in which species go primarily extinct. Yet, the sequence of primary extinctions, and their effects on the vulnerability of food webs to secondary extinctions, when species abundances are allowed to respond dynamically, has only recently become the focus of attention. Here, we analyse and compare topological and dynamical robustness to secondary extinctions of model food webs, in the face of 34 extinction sequences based on species traits. Although secondary extinctions are frequent in the dynamical approach and rare in the topological approach, topological and dynamical robustness tends to be correlated for many bottom–up directed, but not for top–down directed deletion sequences. Furthermore, removing species based on traits that are strongly positively correlated to the trophic position of species (such as large body size, low abundance, high net effect) is, under the dynamical approach, found to be as destructive as removing primary producers. Such top–down oriented removal of species are often considered to correspond to realistic extinction scenarios, but earlier studies, based on topological approaches, have found such extinction sequences to have only moderate effects on the remaining community. Thus, our result suggests that the structure of ecological communities, and therefore the integrity of important ecosystem processes could be more vulnerable to realistic extinction sequences than previously believed.     

Response of ecosystems to realistic extinction sequences

Recent research suggests that effects of species loss on the structure and functioning of ecosystems will critically depend on the order with which species go extinct. However, there are few studies of the response of natural ecosystems to realistic extinction sequences. Using an extinction scenario based on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, de Visser et al. sequentially deleted species from a topological model of the Serengeti food web. Under this scenario, large-bodied species like top predators and mega-herbivores go extinct first. The resulting changes in the trophic structure of the food web might affect the robustness of the ecosystem to future disturbances.     

The reliability of R50 as a measure of vulnerability of food webs to sequential species deletions

Recent studies predict elevated and accelerating rates of species extinctions over the 21st century, due to climate change and habitat loss. Considering that such primary species loss may initiate cascades of secondary extinctions and push systems towards critical tipping points, we urgently need to increase our understanding of if certain sequences of species extinctions can be expected to be more devastating than others Most theoretical studies addressing this question have used a topological (non‐dynamical) approach to analyse the probability that food webs will collapse, below a fixed threshold value in species richness, when subjected to different sequences of species loss. Typically, these studies have neither considered the possibility of dynamical responses of species, nor that conclusions may depend on the value of the collapse threshold. Here we analyse how sensitive conclusions on the importance of different species are to the threshold value of food web collapse. Using dynamical simulations, where we expose model food webs to a range of extinction sequences, we evaluate the reliability of the most frequently used index, R₅₀, as a measure of food web robustness. In general, we find that R₅₀ is a reliable measure and that identification of destructive deletion sequences is fairly robust, within a moderate range of collapse thresholds. At the same time, however, focusing on R₅₀ only hides a lot of interesting information on the disassembly process and can, in some cases, lead to incorrect conclusions on the relative importance of species in food webs.     

The effect of forest canopy and flood disturbance on New Zealand stream food web structure and robustness

The effects of disturbance on communities have been a focus of both theoretical and empirical inquiries for many years. Food web stability is hypothesized to be affected by disturbance and the nature of the energy pathways (i.e. allochthonous or autochthonous) of a community. In this study, we investigated whether food webs at paired sites, one in forest and the other in grassland, in ten New Zealand streams along a disturbance gradient differ in their topological structure and robustness. Food web robustness (an indicator of web resistance) assesses the ease with which secondary extinctions permeate the food web following an initial random extinction (disturbance). We found that neither the nature of the energy source nor physical disturbance affected structural metrics or web robustness. As stream systems, particularly in New Zealand, are exposed to regular, unpredictable and dramatic physical disturbance from flooding, it may simply be that the floods result in generalist species dominating and increasing robustness irrespective of the energy source.     

Biodiversity loss decreases parasite diversity: theory and patterns

Past models have suggested host-parasite coextinction could lead to linear, or concave down relationships between free-living species richness and parasite richness. I explored several models for the relationship between parasite richness and biodiversity loss. Life cycle complexity, low generality of parasites and sensitivity of hosts reduced the robustness of parasite species to the loss of free-living species diversity. Food-web complexity and the ordering of extinctions altered these relationships in unpredictable ways. Each disassembly of a food web resulted in a unique relationship between parasite richness and the richness of free-living species, because the extinction trajectory of parasites was sensitive to the order of extinctions of free-living species. However, the average of many disassemblies tended to approximate an analytical model. Parasites of specialist hosts and hosts higher on food chains were more likely to go extinct in food-web models. Furthermore, correlated extinctions between hosts and parasites (e.g. if parasites share a host with a specialist predator) led to steeper declines in parasite richness with biodiversity loss. In empirical food webs with random removals of free-living species, the relationship between free-living species richness and parasite richness was, on average, quasi-linear, suggesting biodiversity loss reduces parasite diversity more than previously thought.     

The Serengeti food web: empirical quantification and analysis of topological changes under increasing human impact

1.?To address effects of land use and human overexploitation on wildlife populations, it is essential to better understand how human activities have changed species composition, diversity and functioning. Theoretical studies modelled how network properties change under human-induced, non-random species loss. However, we lack data on realistic species-loss sequences in threatened, real-world food webs to parameterize these models. 2.?Here, we present a first size-structured topological food web of one of the most pristine terrestrial ecosystems in the world, the Serengeti ecosystem (Tanzania). The food web consists of 95 grouped nodes and includes both invertebrates and vertebrates ranging from body masses between 10(-7) and 10(4) kg. 3.?We study the topological changes in this food web that result from the simulated IUCN-based species-loss sequence representing current species vulnerability to human disturbances in and around this savanna ecosystem. We then compare this realistic extinction scenario with other extinction sequences based on body size and connectance and perform an analysis of robustness of this savanna food web. 4.?We demonstrate that real-world species loss in this case starts with the biggest (mega) herbivores and top predators, causing higher predator-prey mass ratios. However, unlike theoretically modelled linear species deletion sequences, this causes poor-connected species to be lost first, while more highly connected species become lost as human impact progresses. This food web shows high robustness to decreasing body size and increasing connectance deletion sequences compared with a high sensitivity to the decreasing connectance deletion scenario. 5.?Furthermore, based on the current knowledge of the Serengeti ecosystem, we discuss how the focus on food web topology alone, disregarding nontrophic interactions, may lead to an underestimation of human impacts on wildlife communities, with the number of trophic links affected by a factor of two. 6.?This study underlines the importance of integrative efforts between the development of food web theory and basic field work approaches in the quantification of the structure of interaction networks to sustain natural ecosystems in a changing world.     

The reduction of food web robustness by parasitism: fact and artefact

A robust food web is one which suffers few secondary extinctions after primary species losses. While recent research has shown that a food web with parasitism is less robust than one without, it still remains unclear whether the reduction in robustness is due to changes in network complexity or unique characteristics associated with parasitism. Here, using several published food webs, simulation experiments with different food web models and extinction scenarios were conducted to elucidate how such reduction can be achieved. Our results show that, regardless of changes in network complexity and preferential parasitism, the reduction in food web robustness is mainly due to the life cycle constraint of parasites. Our findings further demonstrate that parasites are prone to secondary extinctions and that their extinctions occur earlier than those involving free-living species. These findings suggest that the vulnerable nature of parasites to species loss makes them highly sensitive indicators of food web integrity.     

Relative ascendency predicts food web robustness

Threats to ecosystems globally from anthropogenic disturbance and climate change requires us to urgently identify the most sensitive biological communities to ensure they are effectively preserved. It is for this reason that understanding and predicting food web stability has been topical within ecology. Food web stability is a multi-faceted concept that represents the ability of a food web to maintain its integrity following disturbance, it includes resistance, resilience and fragility. In this study, we examine the ability of four food web metrics to predict the fragility to random species extinctions in 120 qualitative food webs. We show that three information-based indices out performed food web connectance in predicting fragility, with relative ascendency having the strongest relationship. Relative ascendency was a much stronger predictor of fragility than MacArthur’s stability metric, Average Mutual Information and connectance as it accounted for both the distribution and number of links between species. We also find that most qualitative food webs persist around a central tendency of relative ascendency.     

Food webs robustness to biodiversity loss: the roles of connectance, expansibility and degree distribution

We analyse the robustness of food webs against species loss by considering the influence of several structural factors of the networks, such as connectance, degree distribution and expansibility. The last concept refers to the absence of structural bottlenecks in the food web, whose removal separate the network into large isolate clusters. In theory networks with identical connectance can display different expansibility characteristics. Using the spectral scaling method we studied 17 food networks and classified them as good expansion (GE) and not-GE networks. The combination of GE properties and degree distribution of species permitted the classification of food webs into six different classes. These classes characterize the differences in robustness of food webs to species loss. While the webs having uniform degree distributions and displaying GE properties are the most robust to species loss, the presence of bottlenecks and skewed distribution of the number of links per species make food webs very vulnerable to primary removal of species.     

Persistence increases with diversity and connectance in trophic metacommunities

Background

We are interested in understanding if metacommunity dynamics contribute to the persistence of complex spatial food webs subject to colonization-extinction dynamics. We study persistence as a measure of stability of communities within discrete patches, and ask how do species diversity, connectance, and topology influence it in spatially structured food webs.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We answer this question first by identifying two general mechanisms linking topology of simple food web modules and persistence at the regional scale. We then assess the robustness of these mechanisms to more complex food webs with simulations based on randomly created and empirical webs found in the literature. We find that linkage proximity to primary producers and food web diversity generate a positive relationship between complexity and persistence in spatial food webs. The comparison between empirical and randomly created food webs reveal that the most important element for food web persistence under spatial colonization-extinction dynamics is the degree distribution: the number of prey species per consumer is more important than their identity.

Conclusions/Significance

With a simple set of rules governing patch colonization and extinction, we have predicted that diversity and connectance promote persistence at the regional scale. The strength of our approach is that it reconciles the effect of complexity on stability at the local and the regional scale. Even if complex food webs are locally prone to extinction, we have shown their complexity could also promote their persistence through regional dynamics. The framework we presented here offers a novel and simple approach to understand the complexity of spatial food webs.     

Trophically unique species are vulnerable to cascading extinction

Understanding which species might become extinct and the consequences of such loss is critical. One consequence is a cascade of further, secondary extinctions. While a significant amount is known about the types of communities and species that suffer secondary extinctions, little is known about the consequences of secondary extinctions for biodiversity. Here we examine the effect of these secondary extinctions on trophic diversity, the range of trophic roles played by the species in a community. Our analyses of natural and model food webs show that secondary extinctions cause loss of trophic diversity greater than that expected from chance, a result that is robust to variation in food web structure, distribution of interactions strengths, functional response, and adaptive foraging. Greater than expected loss of trophic diversity occurs because more trophically unique species are more vulnerable to secondary extinction. This is not a straightforward consequence of these species having few links with others but is a complex function of how direct and indirect interactions affect species persistence. A positive correlation between a species' extinction probability and the importance of its loss defines high-risk species and should make their conservation a priority.     

Effects of extinction on food web structures on an evolutionary time scale

Extinction affected food web structure in paleoecosystems. Recent theoretical studies that examined the effects of extinction intensity on food web structure on ecological time scales have considered extinction to involve episodic events, with pre-extinction food webs becoming established without dynamics. However, in terms of the paleontological time scale, food web structures are generated from feedback with repeated extinctions, because extinction frequency is affected by food web structure, and food web structure itself is a product of previous extinctions. We constructed a simulation model of changes in tri-trophic-level food webs to examine how continual extinction events affect food webs on an evolutionary time scale. We showed that under high extinction intensity (1) species diversity, especially that of consumer species, decreased; (2) the total population density at each trophic level decreased, while the densities of individual species increased; and (3) the trophic link density of the food web increased. In contrast to previous models, our results were based on an assumption of long-term food web development and are able to explain overall trends posited by empirical investigations based on fossil records.     

Parasites in food webs: the ultimate missing links

Parasitism is the most common consumer strategy among organisms, yet only recently has there been a call for the inclusion of infectious disease agents in food webs. The value of this effort hinges on whether parasites affect food‐web properties. Increasing evidence suggests that parasites have the potential to uniquely alter food‐web topology in terms of chain length, connectance and robustness. In addition, parasites might affect food‐web stability, interaction strength and energy flow. Food‐web structure also affects infectious disease dynamics because parasites depend on the ecological networks in which they live. Empirically, incorporating parasites into food webs is straightforward. We may start with existing food webs and add parasites as nodes, or we may try to build food webs around systems for which we already have a good understanding of infectious processes. In the future, perhaps researchers will add parasites while they construct food webs. Less clear is how food‐web theory can accommodate parasites. This is a deep and central problem in theoretical biology and applied mathematics. For instance, is representing parasites with complex life cycles as a single node equivalent to representing other species with ontogenetic niche shifts as a single node? Can parasitism fit into fundamental frameworks such as the niche model? Can we integrate infectious disease models into the emerging field of dynamic food‐web modelling? Future progress will benefit from interdisciplinary collaborations between ecologists and infectious disease biologists.     

Food Web Assembly Rules for Generalized Lotka-Volterra Equations

In food webs, many interacting species coexist despite the restrictions imposed by the competitive exclusion principle and apparent competition. For the generalized Lotka-Volterra equations, sustainable coexistence necessitates nonzero determinant of the interaction matrix. Here we show that this requirement is equivalent to demanding that each species be part of a non-overlapping pairing, which substantially constrains the food web structure. We demonstrate that a stable food web can always be obtained if a non-overlapping pairing exists. If it does not, the matrix rank can be used to quantify the lack of niches, corresponding to unpaired species. For the species richness at each trophic level, we derive the food web assembly rules, which specify sustainable combinations. In neighboring levels, these rules allow the higher level to avert competitive exclusion at the lower, thereby incorporating apparent competition. In agreement with data, the assembly rules predict high species numbers at intermediate levels and thinning at the top and bottom. Using comprehensive food web data, we demonstrate how omnivores or parasites with hosts at multiple trophic levels can loosen the constraints and help obtain coexistence in food webs. Hence, omnivory may be the glue that keeps communities intact even under extinction or ecological release of species.     

The relationship between the duration of food web evolution and the vulnerability to biological invasion

I conducted computer simulations of food web evolution and investigated the relationship between the duration of food web evolution and the vulnerability to biological invasion. Model food webs without evolution consisted of animal species with a limited number of prey species and producer species with small intrinsic growth rates. Because these species were not resistant to predation pressure, model food webs without evolution were vulnerable to invasion of powerful omnivores, which had a wide range of feeding preference and a high ecological efficiency. In model food webs without evolution, the number of animal species depending on producer species was small. Therefore, if a producer species invaded and disturbed the base of such food webs, few animal species became extinct. However, model food webs with a long time evolution had a structure that a small number of producer species supported a large number of animal species. When a producer species invaded and disturbed the base of such food webs in this state, many species became extinct by an indirect effect. The mean number of prey species of animal species and the mean intrinsic growth rate of producer species increased rapidly in the early stage of evolution. Therefore, in the early stage of food web evolution, food webs were temporarily resistant to invasion of powerful omnivores. However, this resistibility was not maintained for a long time. The result of this study strongly suggests that food webs change with time, and consequently the vulnerability to invasion changes with time.     

Species loss and secondary extinctions in simple and complex model communities

1. The loss of a species from an ecological community can trigger a cascade of secondary extinctions. Here we investigate how the complexity (connectance) of model communities affects their response to species loss. Using dynamic analysis based on a global criterion of persistence (permanence) and topological analysis we investigate the extent of secondary extinctions following the loss of different kinds of species. 2. We show that complex communities are, on average, more resistant to species loss than simple communities: the number of secondary extinctions decreases with increasing connectance. However, complex communities are more vulnerable to loss of top predators than simple communities. 3. The loss of highly connected species (species with many links to other species) and species at low trophic levels triggers, on average, the largest number of secondary extinctions. The effect of the connectivity of a species is strongest in webs with low connectance. 4. Most secondary extinctions are due to direct bottom-up effects: consumers go extinct when their resources are lost. Secondary extinctions due to trophic cascades and disruption of predator-mediated coexistence also occur. Secondary extinctions due to disruption of predator-mediated coexistence are more common in complex communities than in simple communities, while bottom-up and top-down extinction cascades are more common in simple communities. 5. Topological analysis of the response of communities to species loss always predicts a lower number of secondary extinctions than dynamic analysis, especially in food webs with high connectance.     

Local stability properties of complex,species‐rich soil food webs with functional block structure

Ecologists have long debated the properties that confer stability to complex, species‐rich ecological networks. Species‐level soil food webs are large and structured networks of central importance to ecosystem functioning. Here, we conducted an analysis of the stability properties of an up‐to‐date set of theoretical soil food web models that account both for realistic levels of species richness and the most recent views on the topological structure (who is connected to whom) of these food webs. The stability of the network was best explained by two factors: strong correlations between interaction strengths and the blocked, nonrandom trophic structure of the web. These two factors could stabilize our model food webs even at the high levels of species richness that are typically found in soil, and that would make random systems very unstable. Also, the stability of our soil food webs is well‐approximated by the cascade model. This result suggests that stability could emerge from the hierarchical structure of the functional organization of the web. Our study shows that under the assumption of equilibrium and small perturbations, theoretical soil food webs possess a topological structure that allows them to be complex yet more locally stable than their random counterpart. In particular, results strongly support the general hypothesis that the stability of rich and complex soil food webs is mostly driven by correlations in interaction strength and the organization of the soil food web into functional groups. The implication is that in real‐world food web, any force disrupting the functional structure and distribution pattern of interaction strengths (i.e., energy fluxes) of the soil food webs will destabilize the dynamics of the system, leading to species extinction and major changes in the relative abundances of species.     

Functional diversity buffers the effects of a pulse perturbation on the dynamics of tritrophic food webs

Biodiversity decline causes a loss of functional diversity, which threatens ecosystems through a dangerous feedback loop: This loss may hamper ecosystems’ ability to buffer environmental changes, leading to further biodiversity losses. In this context, the increasing frequency of human‐induced excessive loading of nutrients causes major problems in aquatic systems. Previous studies investigating how functional diversity influences the response of food webs to disturbances have mainly considered systems with at most two functionally diverse trophic levels. We investigated the effects of functional diversity on the robustness, that is, resistance, resilience, and elasticity, using a tritrophic—and thus more realistic—plankton food web model. We compared a non‐adaptive food chain with no diversity within the individual trophic levels to a more diverse food web with three adaptive trophic levels. The species fitness differences were balanced through trade‐offs between defense/growth rate for prey and selectivity/half‐saturation constant for predators. We showed that the resistance, resilience, and elasticity of tritrophic food webs decreased with larger perturbation sizes and depended on the state of the system when the perturbation occurred. Importantly, we found that a more diverse food web was generally more resistant and resilient but its elasticity was context‐dependent. Particularly, functional diversity reduced the probability of a regime shift toward a non‐desirable alternative state. The basal‐intermediate interaction consistently determined the robustness against a nutrient pulse despite the complex influence of the shape and type of the dynamical attractors. This relationship was strongly influenced by the diversity present and the third trophic level. Overall, using a food web model of realistic complexity, this study confirms the destructive potential of the positive feedback loop between biodiversity loss and robustness, by uncovering mechanisms leading to a decrease in resistance, resilience, and potentially elasticity as functional diversity declines.     

Food web stability: the influence of trophic flows across habitats

In nature, fluxes across habitats often bring both nutrient and energetic resources into areas of low productivity from areas of higher productivity. These inputs can alter consumption rates of consumer and predator species in the recipient food webs, thereby influencing food web stability. Starting from a well-studied tritrophic food chain model, we investigated the impact of allochthonous inputs on the stability of a simple food web model. We considered the effects of allochthonous inputs on stability of the model using four sets of biologically plausible parameters that represent different dynamical outcomes. We found that low levels of allochthonous inputs stabilize food web dynamics when species preferentially feed on the autochthonous sources, while either increasing the input level or changing the feeding preference to favor allochthonous inputs, or both, led to a decoupling of the food chain that could result in the loss of one or all species. We argue that allochthonous inputs are important sources of productivity in many food webs and their influence needs to be studied further. This is especially important in the various systems, such as caves, headwater streams, and some small marine islands, in which more energy enters the food web from allochthonous inputs than from autochthonous inputs.     

Climate‐driven increases in storm frequency simplify kelp forest food webs

Climate models predict a dramatic increase in the annual frequency and severity of extreme weather events during the next century. Here we show that increases in the annual frequency of severe storms lead to a decrease in the diversity and complexity of food webs of giant kelp forests, one of the most productive habitats on Earth. We demonstrate this by linking natural variation in storms with measured changes in kelp forest food web structure in the Santa Barbara Channel using structural equation modeling (SEM). We then match predictions from statistical models to results from a multiyear kelp removal experiment designed to simulate frequent large storms. Both SEM models and experiments agree: if large storms remain at their current annual frequency (roughly one major kelp‐removing storm every 3.5 years), periodic storms help maintain the complexity of kelp forest food webs. However, if large storms increase in annual frequency and begin to occur year after year, kelp forest food webs become less diverse and complex as species go locally extinct. The loss of complexity occurs primarily due to decreases in the diversity and complexity of higher trophic levels. Our findings demonstrate that shifts in climate‐driven disturbances that affect foundation species are likely to have impacts that cascade through entire ecosystems.