Why breeding time has not responded to selection for earlier breeding in a songbird population

A crucial assumption underlying the breeders' equation is that selection acts directly on the trait of interest, and not on an unmeasured environmental factor which affects both fitness and the trait. Such an environmentally induced covariance between a trait and fitness has been repeatedly proposed as an explanation for the lack of response to selection on avian breeding time. We tested this hypothesis using a long-term dataset from a Dutch great tit (Parus major) population. Although there was strong selection for earlier breeding in this population, egg-laying dates have changed only marginally over the last decades. Using a so-called animal model, we quantified the additive genetic variance in breeding time and predicted breeding values for females. Subsequently, we compared selection at the phenotypic and genetic levels for two fitness components, fecundity and adult survival. We found no evidence for an environmentally caused covariance between breeding time and fitness or counteracting selection on the different fitness components. Consequently, breeding time should respond to selection but the expected response to selection was too small to be detected.     

An integrated analysis of phenotypic selection on insect body size and development time

Most studies of phenotypic selection do not estimate selection or fitness surfaces for multiple components of fitness within a unified statistical framework. This makes it difficult or impossible to assess how selection operates on traits through variation in multiple components of fitness. We describe a new generation of aster models that can evaluate phenotypic selection by accounting for timing of life‐history transitions and their effect on population growth rate, in addition to survival and reproductive output. We use this approach to estimate selection on body size and development time for a field population of the herbivorous insect, Manduca sexta (Lepidoptera: Sphingidae). Estimated fitness surfaces revealed strong and significant directional selection favoring both larger adult size (via effects on egg counts) and more rapid rates of early larval development (via effects on larval survival). Incorporating the timing of reproduction and its influence on population growth rate into the analysis resulted in larger values for size in early larval development at which fitness is maximized, and weaker selection on size in early larval development. These results illustrate how the interplay of different components of fitness can influence selection on size and development time. This integrated modeling framework can be readily applied to studies of phenotypic selection via multiple fitness components in other systems.     

Scaling up phenotypic plasticity with hierarchical population models

Individuals respond to different environments by developing different phenotypes, which is generally seen as a mechanism through which individuals can buffer adverse environmental conditions and increase their fitness. To understand the consequences of phenotypic plasticity it is necessary to study how changing a particular trait of an individual affects either its survival, growth, reproduction or a combination of these demographic vital rates (i.e. fitness components). Integrating vital rate changes due to phenotypic plasticity into models of population dynamics allows detailed study of how phenotypic changes scale up to higher levels of integration and forms an excellent tool to distinguish those plastic trait changes that really matter at the population level. A modeling approach also facilitates studying systems that are even more complex: traits and vital rates often co-vary or trade-off with other traits that may show plastic responses over environmental gradients. Here we review recent developments in the literature on population models that attempt to include phenotypic plasticity with a range of evolutionary assumptions and modeling techniques. We present in detail a model framework in which environmental impacts on population dynamics can be followed analytically through direct and indirect pathways that importantly incorporate phenotypic plasticity, trait-trait and trait-vital rate relationships. We illustrate this framework with two case studies: the population-level consequences of phenotypic responses to nutrient enrichment of plant species occurring in nutrient-poor habitats and of responses to changes in flooding regimes due to climate change. We conclude with exciting prospects for further development of this framework: selection analyses, modeling advances and the inclusion of spatial dynamics by considering dispersal traits as well.     

Quantification and decomposition of environment‐selection relationships

In nature, selection varies across time in most environments, but we lack an understanding of how specific ecological changes drive this variation. Ecological factors can alter phenotypic selection coefficients through changes in trait distributions or individual mean fitness, even when the trait‐absolute fitness relationship remains constant. We apply and extend a regression‐based approach in a population of Soay sheep (Ovis aries) and suggest metrics of environment‐selection relationships that can be compared across studies. We then introduce a novel method that constructs an environmentally structured fitness function. This allows calculation of full (as in existing approaches) and partial (acting separately through the absolute fitness function slope, mean fitness, and phenotype distribution) sensitivities of selection to an ecological variable. Both approaches show positive overall effects of density on viability selection of lamb mass. However, the second approach demonstrates that this relationship is largely driven by effects of density on mean fitness, rather than on the trait‐fitness relationship slope. If such mechanisms of environmental dependence of selection are common, this could have important implications regarding the frequency of fluctuating selection, and how previous selection inferences relate to longer term evolutionary dynamics.     

Evolutionary stasis of a heritable morphological trait in a wild fish population despite apparent directional selection

Comparing observed versus theoretically expected evolutionary responses is important for our understanding of the evolutionary process, and for assessing how species may cope with anthropogenic change. Here, we document directional selection for larger female size in Atlantic salmon, using pedigree‐derived estimates of lifetime reproductive success as a fitness measure. We show the trait is heritable and, thus, capable of responding to selection. The Breeder's Equation, which predicts microevolution as the product of phenotypic selection and heritability, predicted evolution of larger size. This was at odds, however, with the observed lack of either phenotypic or genetic temporal trends in body size, a so‐called “paradox of stasis.” To investigate this paradox, we estimated the additive genetic covariance between trait and fitness, which provides a prediction of evolutionary change according to Robertson's secondary theorem of selection (STS) that is unbiased by missing variables. The STS prediction was consistent with the observed stasis. Decomposition of phenotypic selection gradients into genetic and environmental components revealed a potential upward bias, implying unmeasured factors that covary with trait and fitness. These results showcase the power of pedigreed, wild population studies—which have largely been limited to birds and mammals—to study evolutionary processes on contemporary timescales.     

Differences in the temporal dynamics of phenotypic selection among fitness components in the wild

The balance of selection acting through different fitness components (e.g. fecundity, mating success, survival) determines the potential tempo and trajectory of adaptive evolution. Yet the extent to which the temporal dynamics of phenotypic selection may vary among fitness components is poorly understood. Here, we compiled a database of 3978 linear selection coefficients from temporally replicated studies of selection in wild populations to address this question. Across studies, we find that multi-year selection through mating success and fecundity is stronger than selection through survival, but varies less in direction. We also report that selection through mating success varies more in long-term average strength than selection through either survival or fecundity. The consistency in direction and stronger long-term average strength of selection through mating success and fecundity suggests that selection through these fitness components should cause more persistent directional evolution relative to selection through survival. Similar patterns were apparent for the subset of studies that evaluated the temporal dynamics of selection on traits simultaneously using several different fitness components, but few such studies exist. Taken together, these results reveal key differences in the temporal dynamics of selection acting through different fitness components, but they also reveal important limitations in our understanding of how selection drives adaptive evolution.     

ON THE EVOLUTION OF PHENOTYPIC PLASTICITY IN A SPATIALLY HETEROGENEOUS ENVIRONMENT

A genetic model for the dynamics of a quantitative trait is analyzed in terms of gene frequencies, linkage disequilibria, and environmental effects on the trait. In a randomly mating population, at each generation progeny move to niches where they are subject to weak Gaussian selection on the trait, with different fitness levels in the different niches. Initially, the variability of the trait is due to additive loci with heterozygous homeostasis. The evolution of plasticity is then described in terms of the invasion of the population by genetic modifiers that may epistatically affect the trait, its optimum in each niche, the strengths of selection, and other parameters characteristic of the niches. We show that the evolution of trait means within niches depends on the overall evolution in the whole system, and in general, optimum phenotypic values are not attained. The reaction norm and genotype-environment interaction may evolve even if the only effects of the modifier are on individual rates of dispersal, or on fitness effects resulting from the different environments in the different niches; this evolution does not require that the modifier affect parameters that influence the values of the trait. It is conjectured that in the least frequently reached niches with low fitness levels, the deviations from the trait optima should be larger than those in more commonly experienced and less stringent niches. Our analysis makes explicit the different contribution of between- and within-niche effects on the evolutionary dynamics of phenotypic plasticity in heterogeneous environments.     

Reducing environmental bias when measuring natural selection

Abstract.— Crucial to understanding the process of natural selection is characterizing phenotypic selection. Measures of phenotypic selection can be biased by environmental variation among individuals that causes a spurious correlation between a trait and fitness. One solution is analyzing genotypic data, rather than phenotypic data. Genotypic data, however, are difficult to gather, can be gathered from few species, and typically have low statistical power. Environmental correlations may act through traits other than through fitness itself. A path analytic framework, which includes measures of such traits, may reduce environmental bias in estimates of selection coefficients. We tested the efficacy of path analysis to reduce bias by re-analyzing three experiments where both phenotypic and genotypic data were available. All three consisted of plant species (Impatiens capensis, Arabidopsis thaliana , and Raphanus sativus) grown in experimental plots or the greenhouse. We found that selection coefficients estimated by path analysis using phenotypic data were highly correlated with those based on genotypic data with little systematic bias in estimating the strength of selection. Although not a panacea, using path analysis can substantially reduce environmental biases in estimates of selection coefficients. Such confidence in phenotypic selection estimates is critical for progress in the study of natural selection.     

The evolutionary history of Drosophila buzzatii. XX. Positive phenotypic covariance between field adult fitness components and body size

In the cactophilic species Drosphila buzzatii, it is feasible to infer the action of natural selection by simultaneously sampling different life history stages in the field. During four years of research, samples of mating and non-mating adults and pupae were taken from a natural population. The main adult fitness components, i.e., mating success, longevity, and fecundity, were recorded in relation to body size, as measured by thorax length. The age of flies was estimated by observing the developmental stage of the reproductive system. Our data showed that larger flies can outlive and outmate small flies, and that mating success is related to age. An estimate of the fitness function showed a linear increase of mating success with increasing thorax length. There was no assortative mating for this trait. We advance the hypothesis that mating success is related to the rate of encounter and courtship time through general activity, which in turn may be related to body size. A positive phenotypic correlation between thorax length and ovariole number, which is related to fecundity, was found in females emerged from wild pupae. Neither the phenotypic nor the genetic (additive) correlations between these two traits were statistically different from zero in laboratory reared females. The genetic consequences of the observed phenotypic selection on body size are discussed.     

When three traits make a line: evolution of phenotypic plasticity and genetic assimilation through linear reaction norms in stochastic environments

Genetic assimilation emerges from selection on phenotypic plasticity. Yet, commonly used quantitative genetics models of linear reaction norms considering intercept and slope as traits do not mimic the full process of genetic assimilation. We argue that intercept–slope reaction norm models are insufficient representations of genetic effects on linear reaction norms and that considering reaction norm intercept as a trait is unfortunate because the definition of this trait relates to a specific environmental value (zero) and confounds genetic effects on reaction norm elevation with genetic effects on environmental perception. Instead, we suggest a model with three traits representing genetic effects that, respectively, (i) are independent of the environment, (ii) alter the sensitivity of the phenotype to the environment and (iii) determine how the organism perceives the environment. The model predicts that, given sufficient additive genetic variation in environmental perception, the environmental value at which reaction norms tend to cross will respond rapidly to selection after an abrupt environmental change, and eventually becomes equal to the new mean environment. This readjustment of the zone of canalization becomes completed without changes in genetic correlations, genetic drift or imposing any fitness costs of maintaining plasticity. The asymptotic evolutionary outcome of this three‐trait linear reaction norm generally entails a lower degree of phenotypic plasticity than the two‐trait model, and maximum expected fitness does not occur at the mean trait values in the population.     

Predicting evolutionary responses to selection on polyandry in the wild: additive genetic covariances with female extra-pair reproduction

The evolutionary forces that underlie polyandry, including extra-pair reproduction (EPR) by socially monogamous females, remain unclear. Selection on EPR and resulting evolution have rarely been explicitly estimated or predicted in wild populations, and evolutionary predictions are vulnerable to bias due to environmental covariances and correlated selection through unmeasured traits. However, evolutionary responses to (correlated) selection on any trait can be directly predicted as additive genetic covariances (cov_A) with appropriate components of relative fitness. I used comprehensive life-history, paternity and pedigree data from song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) to estimate cov_A between a female''s liability to produce extra-pair offspring and two specific fitness components: relative annual reproductive success (ARS) and survival to recruitment. All three traits showed non-zero additive genetic variance. Estimates of cov_A were positive, predicting evolution towards increased EPR, but 95% credible intervals overlapped zero. There was therefore no conclusive prediction of evolutionary change in EPR due to (correlated) selection through female ARS or recruitment. Negative environmental covariance between EPR and ARS would have impeded evolutionary prediction from phenotypic selection differentials. These analyses demonstrate an explicit quantitative genetic approach to predicting evolutionary responses to components of (correlated) selection on EPR that should be unbiased by environmental covariances and unmeasured traits.     

The temporal distribution of directional gradients under selection for an optimum

Temporal variation in phenotypic selection is often attributed to environmental change causing movements of the adaptive surface relating traits to fitness, but this connection is rarely established empirically. Fluctuating phenotypic selection can be measured by the variance and autocorrelation of directional selection gradients through time. However, the dynamics of these gradients depend not only on environmental changes altering the fitness surface, but also on evolution of the phenotypic distribution. Therefore, it is unclear to what extent variability in selection gradients can inform us about the underlying drivers of their fluctuations. To investigate this question, we derive the temporal distribution of directional gradients under selection for a phenotypic optimum that is either constant or fluctuates randomly in various ways in a finite population. Our analytical results, combined with population‐ and individual‐based simulations, show that although some characteristic patterns can be distinguished, very different types of change in the optimum (including a constant optimum) can generate similar temporal distributions of selection gradients, making it difficult to infer the processes underlying apparent fluctuating selection. Analyzing changes in phenotype distributions together with changes in selection gradients should prove more useful for inferring the mechanisms underlying estimated fluctuating selection.     

How urbanization affects sexual communication

Urbanization is rapidly altering landscapes worldwide, changing environmental conditions, and creating novel selection pressures for many organisms. Local environmental conditions affect the expression and evolution of sexual signals and mating behaviors; changes in such traits have important evolutionary consequences because of their effect on reproduction. In this review, we synthesize research investigating how sexual communication is affected by the environmental changes associated with urbanization—including pollution from noise, light, and heavy metals, habitat fragmentation, impervious surfaces, urban heat islands, and changes in resources and predation. Urbanization often has negative effects on sexual communication through signal masking, altering condition‐dependent signal expression, and weakening female preferences. Though there are documented instances of seemingly adaptive shifts in trait expression, the ultimate impact on fitness is rarely tested. The field of urban evolution is still relatively young, and most work has tested whether differences occur in response to various aspects of urbanization. There is limited information available about whether these responses represent phenotypic plasticity or genetic changes, and the extent to which observed shifts in sexual communication affect reproductive fitness. Our understanding of how sexual selection operates in novel, urbanized environments would be bolstered by more studies that perform common garden studies and reciprocal transplants, and that simultaneously evaluate multiple environmental factors to tease out causal drivers of observed phenotypic shifts. Urbanization provides a unique testing ground for evolutionary biologists to study the interplay between ecology and sexual selection, and we suggest that more researchers take advantage of these natural experiments. Furthermore, understanding how sexual communication and mating systems differ between cities and rural areas can offer insights on how to mitigate negative, and accentuate positive, consequences of urban expansion on the biota, and provide new opportunities to underscore the relevance of evolutionary biology in the Anthropocene.     

Phenotypic selection and covariation in the life‐history traits of elephant seals: heavier offspring gain a double selective advantage

Early developmental conditions contribute to individual heterogeneity of both phenotypic traits and fitness components, ultimately affecting population dynamics. Although the demographic consequences of ontogenic growth are best quantified using an integrated measure of fitness, most analyses to date have instead studied individual fitness components in isolation. Here, we estimated phenotypic selection on weaning mass in female southern elephant seals Mirounga leonina by analyzing individual‐based data collected between 1986 and 2016 with capture–recapture and matrix projection models. In support of a hypothesis predicting a gradual decrease of weaning mass effects with time since weaning (the replacement hypothesis), we found that the estimated effects of weaning mass on future survival and recruitment probability was of intermediate duration (rather than transient or permanent). Heavier female offspring had improved odds of survival in early life and a higher probability to recruit at an early age. The positive link between weaning mass and recruitment age is noteworthy, considering that pre‐recruitment mortality already imposed a strong selective filter on the population, leaving only the most ‘robust’ individuals to reproduce. The selection gradient on asymptotic population growth rate, a measure of mean absolute fitness, was weaker than selection on first‐year survival and recruitment probabilities. Weaker selection on mean fitness occurs because weaning mass has little impact on adult survival, the fitness component to which the population growth of long‐lived species is most sensitive. These results highlight the need to interpret individual variation in phenotypic traits in a context that considers the demographic pathways between the trait and an inclusive proxy of individual fitness. Although variation in weaning mass do not translate to permanent survival differences among individuals in adulthood, it explains heterogeneity and positive covariation between survival and breeding in early life, which contribute to between‐individual variation in fitness.     

Genetic variation and the potential response to selection on leaf traits after habitat degradation in a long-lived cycad

Rapid evolution may be common in human-dominated landscapes where environmental changes are severe. We used phenotypic selection analyses and a marker-based method to estimate genetic variances and covariances to predict the potential response to selection in populations of a long-lived cycad recently exposed to drastic environmental changes. Patterns of selection in adult fecundity showed that different traits were under directional selection in subpopulations from native-undisturbed habitats and the novel degraded-forest habitat. Plants from a native-habitat subpopulation tend to maximize fitness through larger leaf area or smaller specific leaf area (SLA). In contrast, larger leaf production increased fitness in a degraded-habitat subpopulation, and canopy openness appears to be a major agent of selection for this trait. Leaf production and SLA showed significant additive genetic variance and no genetic trade-offs with examined traits, suggesting that these traits can respond to selection. Directional selection coefficients and heritability values were large, therefore significant phenotypic changes between subpopulations in few generations are possible. These results suggest that recent environmental change can result in strong directional selection in subpopulations of this cycad, and that these subpopulations have the potential to diverge at the genetic level in leaf traits after anthropogenic habitat degradation.     

Formal Darwinism

Two questions are raised for Grafen’s formal darwinism project of aligning evolutionary dynamics under natural selection with the optimization of phenotypes for individuals of a population. The first question concerns mean fitness maximization during frequency-dependent selection; in such selection regimes, not only is mean fitness typically not maximized but it is implausible that any parameter closely related to fitness is being maximized. The second question concerns whether natural selection on inclusive fitness differences can be regarded as individual selection or whether it leads to a departure from the central motivation that led to the formal darwinism project, viz., to show that “Darwinian” evolution through individual selection leads to “good design” or phenotypic adaptation through trait optimization.     

Analysis of trait–performance–fitness relationships reveals pollinator-mediated selection on orchid pollination traits

Premise

The role of pollinators in evolutionary floral divergence has spurred substantial effort into measuring pollinator-mediated phenotypic selection and its variation in space and time. For such estimates, the fitness consequences of pollination processes must be separated from other factors affecting fitness.

Methods

We built a fitness function linking phenotypic traits of food-deceptive orchids to female reproductive success by including pollinator visitation and pollen deposition as intermediate performance components and used the fitness function to estimate the strength of pollinator-mediated selection through female reproductive success. We also quantified male performance as pollinarium removal and assessed similarity in trait effects on male and female performance.

Results

The proportion of plants visited at least once by an effective pollinator was moderate to high, ranging from 53.7% to 85.1%. Tall, many-flowered plants were often more likely to be visited and pollinated. Given effective pollination, pollen deposition onto stigmas tended to be more likely for taller plants. Pollen deposition further depended on traits affecting the physical fit of pollinators to flowers (flower size, spur length), though the exact relationships varied in time and space. Using the fitness function to assess pollinator-mediated selection through female reproductive success acting on multiple traits, we found that selection varied detectably among taxa after accounting for sampling uncertainty. Across taxa, selection on most traits was stronger on average and more variable when pollination was less reliable.

Conclusions

These results support pollination-related trait–performance–fitness relationships and thus pollinator-mediated selection on traits functionally involved in the pollination process.     

Evolution of Adaptation and Mate Choice: Parental Relatedness Affects Expression of Phenotypic Variance in a Natural Population

Mating between relatives generally results in reduced offspring viability or quality, suggesting that selection should favor behaviors that minimize inbreeding. However, in natural populations where searching is costly or variation among potential mates is limited, inbreeding is often common and may have important consequences for both offspring fitness and phenotypic variation. In particular, offspring morphological variation often increases with greater parental relatedness, yet the source of this variation, and thus its evolutionary significance, are poorly understood. One proposed explanation is that inbreeding influences a developing organism’s sensitivity to its environment and therefore the increased phenotypic variation observed in inbred progeny is due to greater inputs from environmental and maternal sources. Alternatively, changes in phenotypic variation with inbreeding may be due to additive genetic effects alone when heterozygotes are phenotypically intermediate to homozygotes, or effects of inbreeding depression on condition, which can itself affect sensitivity to environmental variation. Here we examine the effect of parental relatedness (as inferred from neutral genetic markers) on heritable and nonheritable components of developmental variation in a wild bird population in which mate choice is often constrained, thereby leading to inbreeding. We found greater morphological variation and distinct contributions of variance components in offspring from highly related parents: inbred offspring tended to have greater environmental and lesser additive genetic variance compared to outbred progeny. The magnitude of this difference was greatest in late-maturing traits, implicating the accumulation of environmental variation as the underlying mechanism. Further, parental relatedness influenced the effect of an important maternal trait (egg size) on offspring development. These results support the hypothesis that inbreeding leads to greater sensitivity of development to environmental variation and maternal effects, suggesting that the evolutionary response to selection will depend strongly on mate choice patterns and population structure.     

Niche construction and the environmental term of the price equation: How natural selection changes when organisms alter their environments

Organisms construct their own environments and phenotypes through the adaptive processes of habitat choice, habitat construction, and phenotypic plasticity. We examine how these processes affect the dynamics of mean fitness change through the environmental change term of the Price Equation. This tends to be ignored in evolutionary theory, owing to the emphasis on the first term describing the effect of natural selection on mean fitness (the additive genetic variance for fitness of Fisher's Fundamental Theorem). Using population genetic models and the Price Equation, we show how adaptive niche constructing traits favorably alter the distribution of environments that organisms encounter and thereby increase population mean fitness. Because niche-constructing traits increase the frequency of higher-fitness environments, selection favors their evolution. Furthermore, their alteration of the actual or experienced environmental distribution creates selective feedback between niche constructing traits and other traits, especially those with genotype-by-environment interaction for fitness. By altering the distribution of experienced environments, niche constructing traits can increase the additive genetic variance for such traits. This effect accelerates the process of overall adaption to the niche-constructed environmental distribution and can contribute to the rapid refinement of alternative phenotypic adaptations to different environments. Our findings suggest that evolutionary biologists revisit and reevaluate the environmental term of the Price Equation: owing to adaptive niche construction, it contributes directly to positive change in mean fitness; its magnitude can be comparable to that of natural selection; and, when there is fitness G × E, it increases the additive genetic variance for fitness, the much-celebrated first term.     

QUANTIFYING EVOLUTIONARY POTENTIAL OF MARINE FISH LARVAE: HERITABILITY,SELECTION, AND EVOLUTIONARY CONSTRAINTS

For many marine fish, intense larval mortality may provide considerable opportunity for selection, yet much less is known about the evolutionary potential of larval traits. We combined field demographic studies and manipulative experiments to estimate quantitative genetic parameters for both larval size and swimming performance for a natural population of a common coral‐reef fish, the bicolor damselfish (Stegastes partitus). We also examined selection on larval size by synthesizing information from published estimates of selective mortality. We introduce a method that uses the Lande–Arnold framework for examining selection on quantitative traits to empirically reconstruct adaptive landscapes. This method allows the relationship between phenotypic value and fitness components to be described across a broad range of trait values. Our results suggested that despite strong viability selection for large larvae and moderate heritability (h²= 0.29), evolutionary responses of larvae would likely be balanced by reproductive selection favoring mothers that produce more, smaller offspring. Although long‐term evolutionary responses of larval traits may be constrained by size‐number trade‐offs, our results suggest that phenotypic variation in larval size may be an ecologically important source of variability in population dynamics through effects on larval survival and recruitment to benthic populations.