Masting behaviour in a Mediterranean pine tree alters seed predator selection on reproductive output

• Context‐dependency in species interactions is widespread and can produce concomitant patterns of context‐dependent selection. Masting (synchronous production of large seed crops at irregular intervals by a plant population) has been shown to reduce seed predation through satiation (reduction in rates of seed predation with increasing seed cone output) and thus represents an important source of context‐dependency in plant‐animal interactions. However, the evolutionary consequences of such dynamics are not well understood.
• Here we describe masting behaviour in a Mediterranean model pine species (Pinus pinaster) and present a test of the effects of masting on selection by seed predators on reproductive output. We predicted that masting, by enhancing seed predator satiation, could in turn strengthen positive selection by seed predators for larger cone output. For this we collected six‐year data (spanning one mast year and five non‐mast years) on seed cone production and seed cone predation rates in a forest genetic trial composed by 116 P. pinaster genotypes.
• Following our prediction, we found stronger seed predator satiation during the masting year, which in turn led to stronger seed predator selection for increased cone production relative to non‐masting years.
• These findings provide evidence that masting can alter the evolutionary outcome of plant‐seed predator interactions. More broadly, our findings highlight that changes in consumer responses to resource abundance represent a widespread mechanism for predicting and understanding context dependency in plant‐consumer evolutionary dynamics.

     

Direct and indirect effects of masting on rodent populations and tree seed survival

Many plant species are thought to benefit from mast seeding as a result of increased seed survival through predator satiation. However, in communities with many different masting species, lack of synchrony in seed production among species may decrease seed survival by maintaining seed predator populations through the intermast cycle. Similarly, masting by different plant species may have different effects on the seed predator community. We conducted a three-year study in a northeastern USA temperate deciduous forest to determine if production of large seed crops by several tree species was synchronous, and if they had similar effects on all small mammal species. We found that red oak mast crops resulted in increased densities of Peromyscus leucopus and P. maniculatus , but had no effect on Clethrionomys gapperi abundance. Conversely, C. gapperi populations, but not Peromyscus populations, appeared to increase in response to a large red maple seed crop. Differences in small mammal abundance resulted in changes in species-specific seed survival: in the year of abundant C. gapperi , experimentally placed red oak acorns had significantly higher survival than in the year of high Peromyscus abundance. Red oak acorn removal was positively correlated with Peromyscus abundance, while red maple seed removal was significantly higher with increased C. gapperi abundance. Thus, species-specific seed production had differential effects on subsequent small mammal abundance, which in turn affected seed survival. We suggest that at the level of the community, even short-term lack of synchrony in production of large seed crops can cause variation in postdispersal seed survival, through differential effects on the community of small mammal seed predators.     

Spatial dynamics of specialist seed predators on synchronized and intermittent seed production of host plants

Masting, the synchronized and intermittent seed production by plant populations, provides highly variable food resources for specialist seed predators. Such a reproductive mode helps minimize seed losses through predator satiation and extinction of seed predator populations. The seed predators can buffer the resource variation through dispersal or extended diapause. We developed a spatially explicit resource-consumer model to understand the effect of masting on specialist seed predators. The masting dynamics were assumed to follow a resource-based model for plant reproduction, and the population dynamics of the predator were represented by a spatially extended Nicholson-Bailey model. The resultant model demonstrated that when host plants reproduce intermittently, seed predator populations go locally extinct, but global persistence of the predator is facilitated by dispersal or extended diapause. Global extinction of the predator resulted when the intermittent reproduction is highly synchronized among plants. An approximate invasion criterion for the predators showed that negative lag-1 autocorrelation in seeding reduces invasibility, and positive lag-1 cross-correlation enhances invasibility. Spatial synchronization in seeding at local scale caused by pollen coupling (or climate forcing) further prevented invasion of the predators. If the predators employed extended diapause, extremely high temporal variability in reproduction was required for plants to evade the predators.     

Impacts of predation on dynamics of age-structured prey: Allee effects and multi-stability

With a series of mathematical models, we explore impacts of predation on a prey population structured into two age classes, juveniles and adults, assuming generalist, age-specific predators. Predation on any age class is either absent, or represented by types II or III functional responses, in various combinations. We look for Allee effects or more generally for multiple stable steady states in the prey population. One of our key findings is the occurrence of a predator pit (low-density ??refuge?? state of prey induced by predation; the chance of escaping predation thus increases both below and above an intermediate prey density) when only one age class is consumed and predators use a type II functional response ??this scenario is known to occur for an unstructured prey consumed via a type III functional response and can never occur for an unstructured prey consumed via a type II one. In the case where both age classes are consumed by type II generalist predators, an Allee effect occurs frequently, but some parameters give also rise to a predator pit and even three stable equilibria (one extinction equilibrium and two positive ones??Allee effect and predator pit combined). Multiple positive stable equilibria are common if one age class is consumed via a type II functional response and the other via a type III functional response??here, in addition to the behaviours mentioned above one may even observe three stable positive equilibria????double?? predator pit. Some of these results are discussed from the perspective of population management.     

Numerical and dietary responses of a predator community in a temperate zone of Europe

The generalist predation hypothesis predicts that the functional responses of generalist predator species should be quicker than those of specialist predators and have a regulating effect on vole populations. New interpretations of their role in temperate ecosystems have, however, reactivated a debate suggesting generalist predators may have a destabilizing effect under certain conditions (e.g. landscape homogeneity, low prey diversity, temporary dominance of 1 prey species associated with a high degree of dietary specialization). We studied a rich predator community dominated by generalist carnivores ( Martes spp., Vulpes vulpes, Felis catus ) over a 6 yr period in farmland and woodland in France. The most frequent prey were small rodents (mostly Microtus arvalis , a grassland species, and Apodemus spp., a woodland species). Alternative prey were diverse and dominated by lagomorphs ( Oryctolagus cuniculus, Lepus europeus ). We detected a numerical response among specialist carnivores but not among generalist predators. The dietary responses of generalist predators were fairly complex and most often dependent on variation in density of at least 1 prey species. These results support the generalist predation hypothesis. We document a switch to alternative prey, an increase of diet diversity, and a decrease of diet overlap between small and medium-sized generalists during the low density phase of M. arvalis . In this ecosystem, the high density phases of small mammal species are synchronous and cause a temporary specializing of several generalist predator species. This rapid functional response may indicate the predominant role of generalists in low amplitude population cycles of voles observed in some temperate areas.     

The evolutionary ecology of mast seeding

The past seven years have seen a revolution in understanding the causes of mast seeding In perennial plants. Before 1987, the two main theories were resource matching (i.e. plants vary their reproductive output to match variable resources) and predator satiation (i.e. losses to predators are reduced by varying the seed crop). Today, resource matching is restricted to a proximate role, and predator satiation is only one of many theories for the ultimate advantage of masting. Wind pollination, prediction of favourable years for seedling establishment, animal pollination, animal dispersal of fruits, high accessory costs of reproduction and large seed size have all been advanced as possible causes of masting. Of these, wind pollination, predator satiation and environmental prediction are important in a number of species, but the other theories have less support. In future, Important advances seem likely from quantifying synchrony within a population, and examining species with very constant reproduction between years.     

Seed survival on experimental dishes in a central European old‐growth mixed‐species forest – effects of predator guilds,tree masting and small mammal population dynamics

Predation of tree seeds can be a major factor structuring plant communities. We present a three year study on tree seed survival on experimental dishes in an old‐growth forest in central Europe in Austria. We addressed species specific, spatial and temporal aspects of post‐dispersal seed predation. Seeds of Norway spruce Picea abies, European beech Fagus sylvatica, and silver fir Abies alba were exposed on dishes in different types of exclosures which allowed access only to specific guilds of seed predators. Removal experiments were carried out in two old‐growth forests and a managed forest (macro‐sites), including micro‐sites with and without cover of ground vegetation. We conducted the experiment in three consecutive years with a mast year of beech and spruce before the first year of the study. The seed removal experiments were combined with live trapping of small mammals being potential seed predators. Our experiments showed a distinctly different impact of different predator guilds on seed survival on the dishes with highest removal rates of seeds from dishes accessible for small mammals. We observed differing preferences of small mammals for the different tree species. Seed survival in different macro‐ and micro‐habitats were highly variable with lower seed survival in old growth forests. In contrast to our assumption, and in contrast to the satiation hypothesis which assumes higher seed survival in and directly after mast years, seed survival was lower in the year following the mast year of beech when a population peak of small mammals occurred and higher in intermast periods when subsequently small mammal population crashed. This suggests a higher importance of sporadic masting shortly after mast years in intermast periods for establishment of forest trees provided that pollination efficiency is high enough in such years. Combined with the high seed mortality observed after the mast year, this corroborates the important role of seed predation for forest dynamics. An altered synchrony or asynchrony of masting of different tree species and changed masting frequencies through climate change may thus lead to strong and non‐linear effects on forest dynamics.     

Bistability and limit cycles in generalist predator–prey dynamics

Since generalist predators feed on a variety of prey species they tend to persist in an ecosystem even if one particular prey species is absent. Predation by generalist predators is typically characterized by a sigmoidal functional response, so that predation pressure for a given prey species is small when the density of that prey is low. Many mathematical models have included a sigmoidal functional response into predator–prey equations and found the dynamics to be more stable than for a Holling type II functional response. However, almost none of these models considers alternative food sources for the generalist predator. In particular, in these models, the generalist predator goes extinct in the absence of the one focal prey. We model the dynamics of a generalist predator with a sigmoidal functional response on one dynamic prey and fixed alternative food source. We find that the system can exhibit up to six steady states, bistability, limit cycles and several global bifurcations.     

Responses of pre‐dispersal seed predators to sequential flowering of Dipterocarps in Malaysia

Many species of Dipterocarpaceae and other plant families reproduce synchronously at irregular, multi‐year intervals in Southeast Asian forests. These community‐wide general flowering events are thought to facilitate seed survival through satiation of generalist seed predators. During a general flowering event, closely related Shorea species (Dipterocarpaceae) stagger their flowering times by several weeks, which may minimize cross pollination and interspecific competition for pollinators. Generalist, pre‐dispersal seed predators might also track flowering hosts and influence predator satiation. We addressed the question of whether pre‐dispersal seed predation differed between early and late flowering Shorea species by monitoring flowering, fruiting and seed predation intensity over two general flowering events at the Pasoh Research Forest, Malaysia. Pre‐dispersal insect seed predators killed up to 63 percent of developing seeds, with Nanophyes shoreae, a weevil that feeds on immature seeds being the most important predator for all Shorea species. This weevil caused significantly greater pre‐dispersal seed predation in earlier flowering species. Long larval development time precluded oviposition by adults that emerged from the earliest flowering Shorea on the final flowering Shorea. In contrast, larvae of weevils that feed on mature seeds before seed dispersal (Alcidodes spp.), appeared in seeds of all Shorea species almost simultaneously. We conclude that general flowering events have the potential to satiate post‐dispersal seed predators and pre‐dispersal seed predators of mature fruit, but are less effective at satiating pre‐dispersal predators of immature fruit attacking early flowering species.     

Increased seed predation in the second fruiting event during an exceptionally long period of community-level masting in Borneo

In Southeast Asian tropical rainforests, community-level masting (CM) occurs at irregular intervals of 2–10 years. During CM periods, many plant species from various families synchronously flower and subsequently undergo community-level fruiting. Seed predation is a key factor in understanding the ecological and evolutionary factors affecting CM. Masting is proposed to decrease seed mortality due to predation in two ways: by depressing predator abundance through extended and unpredictable absences of seeds; and by satiating predators via mass seed production (predator satiation hypothesis). If the hypothesis is valid in these rainforests, the incidence of seed predation will be higher in a fruiting event that occurs soon after a previous fruiting event, because the intervening period of seed absence would be inadequate to starve the predators. In this study, we examined seed predation by insects, focusing on five dipterocarp species that exceptionally reproduced twice during an extended CM period. All of the five species suffered more intense seed predation in the second fruiting event, consistent with the prediction expected from the predator satiation hypothesis. Weevils, bark beetles and mammals were the main cause of increased seed predation in three, one and one plant species, respectively. However, seed predation intensity did not increase during the second fruiting event in a few combinations of predator and plant species. We discuss the possibility that competition for seeds among predators and/or the interspecific differences in life history traits among predators might affect the varying intensities of seed predation among dipterocarp species by different seed predators.     

Testing the Threat‐Sensitive Hypothesis with Predator Familiarity and Dietary Specificity

In a system with multiple predators, the threat‐sensitive predator avoidance hypothesis predicts that prey respond differently to predators relative to the risks each poses (e.g., degree of dietary specialization). Aquatic animals often rely heavily on detecting predators via chemical cues (kairomones) and respond with a suite of behaviors including detection and avoidance. However, little is known about how animals respond to kairomones of specialist versus generalist predators. In laboratory experiments, we compared behavioral responses of a poorly studied aquatic salamander, the greater siren (Siren lacertina), to cues from specialist and generalist predator snakes to evaluate threat‐sensitive responses. Sirens exhibited a novel behavior (gill‐flushing) most often in the presence of specialist predator cues. Avoidance behavior (reversing direction following cue detection) was higher in response to specialist predator and novel animal control cues and lowest in response to generalist predator cues. An intermediate response to the animal control, an unfamiliar amphibian predator, indicated that sirens respond cautiously to a novel cue. The gradient of observed responses to different snake cues indicates that sirens may be evaluating predation potential of animals based on their foraging specificity and familiarity.     

Reproductive success of individuals with different fruit production patterns. What does it mean for the predator satiation hypothesis?

The predator satiation hypothesis states that synchronous periodic production of seeds is an adaptive strategy evolved to reduce the pressure of seed predators. The seed production pattern is crucial to the predator satiation hypothesis, but there are few studies documenting the success of individuals that are in synchrony and out of synchrony with the whole population. This study is based on long-term data on seed production of Sorbus aucuparia and specialised pre-dispersal seed predation by Argyresthia conjugella, in a subalpine spruce forest in the Western Carpathians (Poland). At the population level, we tested whether functional and numerical responses of predators to the variation of fruit production operate. At the individual level, we tested whether individuals with higher interannual variability in their own seed crops and higher synchrony with the population have higher percentages of uninfested fruits. The intensity of pre-dispersal seed predation was high (average 70 %; range 19–100 %). There were both functional and numerical responses of predators to the variation of fruit production at the population level. We found that individuals that were expected to be preferred under seed predator pressure had higher reproductive success. With increasing synchrony of fruit production between individual trees and the population, the percentage of infested fruits decreased. There was also a negative relationship between the interannual variation in individual fruit production and the percentage of infested fruits. These results confirm selection for individuals with a masting strategy. However, the population does not seem well adapted to strong seed predation pressure and we suggest that this may be a result of prolonged diapause of A. conjugella.     

Masting of rowan <Emphasis Type="Italic">Sorbus aucuparia</Emphasis> L. and consequences for the apple fruit moth <Emphasis Type="Italic">Argyresthia conjugella</Emphasis> Zeller

 Masting of rowan Sorbus aucuparia L. has been studied in 45 sites in southern Norway for 22 years. We present data on the year-to-year variation in fruit setting of rowan, and show that masting is spatially synchronous in Norway and probably all over Fennoscandia. The apple fruit moth Argyresthia conjugella Zeller is an important seed predator on rowan. We present data on the abundance of apple fruit moth in rowanberries during these years and discuss the consequences of masting and intermasting of rowan for apple fruit moth as a pest of apple. We conclude that growth and climate have little impact on flowering intensity and suggest that masting of rowan is an adaptive defense against seed predation and a new example of predator satiation: intermast years inhibit predators and prepare the rowan for the subsequent mast. Received: September 3, 2001 / Accepted: February 24, 2003     

Effect of climate change on mast-seeding species: frequency of mass flowering and escape from specialist insect seed predators

Global surface temperatures are expected to increase by several degrees in the next century, with potentially large but poorly understood impacts on ecological interactions. Here we propose potential effects of increased temperatures on ecologically dominant New Zealand grasses (Chionochloa spp.) that mass flower and mast seed. Twenty-two years’ data from five masting Chionochloa species in New Zealand showed that the cue for heavy flowering was unusually high temperature in the summer of the year before flowering. Attack by predispersal insect seed predators was much reduced in mast years, apparently because predator populations were satiated. Increased temperatures would greatly decrease interannual variation in Chionochloa flowering, allowing seed predator populations to increase and potentially to devastate the seed crop annually. Similar responses are likely in masting species worldwide. This previously unrecognized effect of global warming could have widespread impacts on temperate ecosystems.     

Functional feeding responses of piscivorous fishes from the northeast US continental shelf

The functional feeding response forms of piscivorous fishes used in multispecies and ecosystem modeling have been questioned because they were mostly conjectural or solely based on laboratory studies. Here, we investigate the functional feeding response of seven species of piscivorous fishes on four species of their prey from the northeast US continental shelf using field data that spans 30 years. Our study confirmed that Holling’s types II and III functional responses are the most common functional responses for piscivorous fishes in this region. However, our analyses also revealed that differences exist between piscivorous fishes’ functional responses, and, therefore, combining functional responses of piscivores is probably not appropriate in multispecies and ecosystem modeling. In the absence of specific predator–prey functional responses, we suggest that, for cruising, actively attacking predators, a type II functional response is slightly preferable; for a sedentary, ambush predator, a type III functional response is slightly preferable; at low prey densities for a generic fish predator, a type III functional response should be used; and at moderate to high prey densities, either should work sufficiently. Because we have shown that the functional response of a particular predator to individual prey species varies, these relationships must be further evaluated as we continue to develop and employ multispecies and ecosystem modeling.     

Evolutionary ecology of mast-seeding in temperate and tropical oaks (Quercus spp.)

Mast-seeding is the synchronous production of large seed crops within a population or community of species every two or more years. This paper addresses three non-mutually exclusive hypotheses explaining the evolution of mast-seeding in temperate tree species, especially the genus Quercus: (1) mast-seeding is a consequence of mast-flowering which evolves to increased pollination efficiency in mast-flowering years; (2) mast-seeding has evolved as an anti-predator adaptation by which large seed crops during mast years satiate the seed predators and allow survival of some of the seeds; (3) selection on seed size by habitat can indirectly affect the evolution of masting if trees with large seeds require more time to accumulate reserves to mature those seeds. I find support for the pollination hypothesis in several wind-pollinated temperate tree species but not oaks. However, oaks show evidence favoring the predation and seed size hypotheses. I then develop a model to illustrate the relationships among the three hypotheses in their effects on the evolution of masting. Finally, using data from herbaria and Floras, the influence of selection via flowering, fruiting, and seed size in the evolution of masting in tropical oaks is discussed. I conclude that the need for a supra-annual cue to synchronize flowering and fruiting as well as the larger seed size found in many tropical oak species should contribute to the evolution of masting to a greater extent than seen among temperate oaks.     

Elevational gradient in the cyclicity of a forest-defoliating insect

Observed changes in the cyclicity of herbivore populations along latitudinal gradients and the hypothesis that shifts in the importance of generalist versus specialist predators explain such gradients has long been a matter of intense interest. In contrast, elevational gradients in population cyclicity are largely unexplored. We quantified the cyclicity of gypsy moth populations along an elevational gradient by applying wavelet analysis to spatially referenced 31-year records (1975–2005) of defoliation. Based on geographically weighted regression and nonlinear regression, we found either a hump-shaped or plateauing relationship between elevation and the cyclicity of gypsy moth populations and a positive relationship between cyclicity and the density of the gypsy moth’s preferred host-tree species. The potential effects of elevational gradients in the density of generalist predators and preferred host-tree species on the cyclicity of gypsy moth populations were evaluated with mechanistic simulation models. The models suggested that an elevational gradient in the densities of preferred host tree species could partially explain elevational patterns of gypsy moth cyclicity. Results from a model assuming a type-III functional response of generalist predators to changes in gypsy moth density were inconsistent with the observed elevational gradient in gypsy moth cyclicity. However, a model with a more realistic type-II functional response gave results roughly consistent with the empirical findings. In contrast to classical studies on the effects of generalist predators on prey population cycles, our model with a type-II functional response predicts a unimodal relationship between generalist-predator density and the cyclicity of gypsy moth populations.     

Host selection and responses to forest fragmentation in acorn weevils: inferences from dynamic occupancy models

Prior studies on species‐specific responses to habitat alteration have demonstrated that niche breadth is positively associated with patch occupancy rates in landscapes fragmented by agriculture. However, these studies generally have focused on vertebrates and relied upon data collected at a single point in time, neglecting dynamic processes that could alter inferences. We studied the effects of host selection and forest fragmentation on population dynamics of acorn weevils Curculio, the primary insect seed predators of oaks in North America. Detection/non‐detection data were collected from 174 red and white oaks in 19 forested fragments from 2005–2008. We used dynamic multi‐season site‐occupancy models within a Bayesian framework to explore variation in patch (tree‐level) occupancy dynamics of three species of weevils that vary in their specialization, i.e. their relative selection of red and white oak as hosts: C. pardalis (white oak specialist), C. sulcatulus (generalist) and C. proboscideus (generalist). Contrary to expectations, the specialist exhibited greater estimated rates of occupancy than generalists. However, red oak trees occupied by the white oak specialist appeared to function as sink populations maintained by frequent colonization following local extinction. Specialists also exhibited greater relative variation in occupancy and relative abundance on their host trees among years. Generalists exhibited lower local extinction and colonization rates than the specialist. Occupancy and vital rates of weevils on a host tree increased with acorn production and were significantly influenced by neighborhood forest density. Our results suggest that across much of their range in the eastern United States acorn weevils exist in fragmented, temporally dynamic landscapes, with generalists occurring on a lower proportion of usable trees but buffered by access to more suitable patches and greater patch‐specific survival. More generally, our results demonstrate that estimates of specialization derived from occupancy data may be misleading in the absence of patch‐specific information on vital rates.     

Body masses,functional responses and predator–prey stability

The stability of ecological communities depends strongly on quantitative characteristics of population interactions (type‐II vs. type‐III functional responses) and the distribution of body masses across species. Until now, these two aspects have almost exclusively been treated separately leaving a substantial gap in our general understanding of food webs. We analysed a large data set of arthropod feeding rates and found that all functional‐response parameters depend on the body masses of predator and prey. Thus, we propose generalised functional responses which predict gradual shifts from type‐II predation of small predators on equally sized prey to type‐III functional‐responses of large predators on small prey. Models including these generalised functional responses predict population dynamics and persistence only depending on predator and prey body masses, and we show that these predictions are strongly supported by empirical data on forest soil food webs. These results help unravelling systematic relationships between quantitative population interactions and large‐scale community patterns.     

Modeling changes in predator functional response to prey across spatial scales

Extrapolation of predator functional responses from laboratory observations to the field is often necessary to predict predation rates and predator-prey dynamics at spatial and temporal scales that are difficult to observe directly. We use a spatially explicit individual-based model to explore mechanisms behind changes in functional responses when the scale of observation is increased. Model parameters were estimated from a predator-prey system consisting of the predator Delphastus catalinae (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) and Bemisia tabaci biotype B (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae) on tomato plants. The model explicitly incorporates prey and predator distributions within single plants, the search behavior of predators within plants, and the functional response to prey at the smallest scale of interaction (within leaflets) observed in the laboratory. Validation revealed that the model is useful in scaling up from laboratory observations to predation in whole tomato plants of varying sizes. Comparing predicted predation at the leaflet scale, as observed in laboratory experiments, with predicted predation on whole plants revealed that the predator functional response switches from type II within leaflets to type III within whole plants. We found that the magnitude of predation rates and the type of functional response at the whole plant scale are modulated by (1) the degree of alignment between predator and prey distributions and (2) predator foraging behavior, particularly the effect of area-concentrated search within plants when prey population density is relatively low. The experimental and modeling techniques we present could be applied to other systems in which active predators prey upon sessile or slow-moving species.