Sustainable limits to crop residue harvest for bioenergy: maintaining soil carbon in Australia's agricultural lands

The use of crop residues for bioenergy production needs to be carefully assessed because of the potential negative impact on the level of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. The impact varies with environmental conditions and crop management practices and needs to be considered when harvesting the residue for bioenergy productions. Here, we defined the sustainable harvest limits as the maximum rates that do not diminish SOC and quantified sustainable harvest limits for wheat residue across Australia's agricultural lands. We divided the study area into 9432 climate‐soil (CS) units and simulated the dynamics of SOC in a continuous wheat cropping system over 122 years (1889 – 2010) using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM). We simulated management practices including six fertilization rates (0, 25, 50, 75, 100, and 200 kg N ha^?1) and five residue harvest rates (0, 25, 50, 75, and 100%). We mapped the sustainable limits for each fertilization rate and assessed the effects of fertilization and three key environmental variables – initial SOC, temperature, and precipitation – on sustainable residue harvest rates. We found that, with up to 75 kg N ha^?1 fertilization, up to 75% and 50% of crop residue could be sustainably harvested in south‐western and south‐eastern Australia, respectively. Higher fertilization rates achieved little further increase in sustainable residue harvest rates. Sustainable residue harvest rates were principally determined by climate and soil conditions, especially the initial SOC content and temperature. We conclude that environmental conditions and management practices should be considered to guide the harvest of crop residue for bioenergy production and thereby reduce greenhouse gas emissions during the life cycle of bioenergy production.     

Long‐term no‐till and stover retention each decrease the global warming potential of irrigated continuous corn

Over the last 50 years, the most increase in cultivated land area globally has been due to a doubling of irrigated land. Long‐term agronomic management impacts on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks, soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and global warming potential (GWP) in irrigated systems, however, remain relatively unknown. Here, residue and tillage management effects were quantified by measuring soil nitrous oxide (N₂O) and methane (CH₄) fluxes and SOC changes (ΔSOC) at a long‐term, irrigated continuous corn (Zea mays L.) system in eastern Nebraska, United States. Management treatments began in 2002, and measured treatments included no or high stover removal (0 or 6.8 Mg DM ha^?1 yr^?1, respectively) under no‐till (NT) or conventional disk tillage (CT) with full irrigation (n = 4). Soil N₂O and CH₄ fluxes were measured for five crop‐years (2011–2015), and ΔSOC was determined on an equivalent mass basis to ~30 cm soil depth. Both area‐ and yield‐scaled soil N₂O emissions were greater with stover retention compared to removal and for CT compared to NT, with no interaction between stover and tillage practices. Methane comprised <1% of total emissions, with NT being CH₄ neutral and CT a CH₄ source. Surface SOC decreased with stover removal and with CT after 14 years of management. When ΔSOC, soil GHG emissions, and agronomic energy usage were used to calculate system GWP, all management systems were net GHG sources. Conservation practices (NT, stover retention) each decreased system GWP compared to conventional practices (CT, stover removal), but pairing conservation practices conferred no additional mitigation benefit. Although cropping system, management equipment/timing/history, soil type, location, weather, and the depth to which ΔSOC is measured affect the GWP outcomes of irrigated systems at large, this long‐term irrigated study provides valuable empirical evidence of how management decisions can impact soil GHG emissions and surface SOC stocks.     

Integrated management for sustainable cropping systems: Looking beyond the greenhouse balance at the field scale

Cover crops (CC) promote the accumulation of soil organic carbon (SOC), which provides multiple benefits to agro‐ecosystems. However, additional nitrogen (N) inputs into the soil could offset the CO₂ mitigation potential due to increasing N₂O emissions. Integrated management approaches use organic and synthetic fertilizers to maximize yields while minimizing impacts by crop sequencing adapted to local conditions. The goal of this work was to test whether integrated management, centered on CC adoption, has the potential to maximize SOC stocks without increasing the soil greenhouse gas (GHG) net flux and other agro‐environmental impacts such as nitrate leaching. To this purpose, we ran the DayCent bio‐geochemistry model on 8,554 soil sampling locations across the European Union. We found that soil N₂O emissions could be limited with simple crop sequencing rules, such as switching from leguminous to grass CC when the GHG flux was positive (source). Additional reductions of synthetic fertilizers applications are possible through better accounting for N available in green manures and from mineralization of soil reservoirs while maintaining cash crop yields. Therefore, our results suggest that a CC integrated management approach can maximize the agro‐environmental performance of cropping systems while reducing environmental trade‐offs.     

Life‐cycle assessment of local feedstock supply scenarios to compare candidate biomass sources

The use of life cycle assessment (LCA) as a comprehensive tool to assess environmental impacts of bioenergies is recommended. Nevertheless, several methodological points remain under debate, particularly regarding the feedstock production step, which is a key stage of bioenergy chains. The present work focuses on field emissions during feedstock production, improving assessment methods by the use of process‐based models. To do so, a real bioenergy chain, the local feedstock supply for a boiler located in northern France, was studied. The LCA compares flax shives, (the reference) with four other biomass sources: Miscanthus, cereal straw, linseed straw, and triticale as a whole plant. Six feedstock supply scenarios were also compared. The study aimed to test a new LCA methodology for agricultural chains by integrating local characteristics (such as climate, soil, and crop management data) and using models to estimate field dynamics of pesticide emissions and soil organic carbon (SOC). Results showed that flax shives and linseed straw had the lowest impacts, except for global warming: as a consequence, supply scenarios with the largest share of flax shives had the lowest impacts. For all selected impact categories, transportation and fertilization were the main contributors. SOC dynamics led to high C sequestration level (e.g. with Miscanthus) or to high CO ₂ emissions level (e.g. with flax shives), thus significantly influencing the global warming impact. Sensitivity analysis showed a large influence of allocation method (economic or mass‐based). This study demonstrated the relevance of integrating simulation models using local data in agricultural LCAs, especially for dynamics of SOC and pesticide from fields. Moreover, this work brought scientific elements to support the choice of flax shives as the main biomass feedstock, and the ranking of the other sources as alternative biomass supplies for the boiler.     

Simulation of Biomass Yield and Soil Organic Carbon under Bioenergy Sorghum Production

Developing sustainable management practices including appropriate residue removal and nitrogen (N) fertilization for bioenergy sorghum is critical. However, the effects of residue removal and N fertilization associated with bioenergy sorghum production on soil organic carbon (SOC) are less studied compared to other crops. The objective of our research was to assess the impacts of residue removal and N fertilization on biomass yield and SOC under biomass sorghum production. Field measurements were used to calibrate the DNDC model, then verified the model by comparing simulated results with measured results using the field management practices as agronomic inputs. Both residue removal and N fertilization affected bioenergy sorghum yields in some years. The average measured SOC at 0–50 cm across the treatments and the time-frame ranged from 47.5 to 78.7 Mg C ha⁻¹, while the simulated SOC was from 56.3 to 67.3 Mg C ha⁻¹. The high correlation coefficients (0.65 to 0.99) and low root mean square error (3 to 18) between measured and simulated values indicate the DNDC model accurately simulated the effects of residue removal with N fertilization on bioenergy sorghum production and SOC. The model predictions revealed that there is, in the long term, a trend for higher SOC under bioenergy sorghum production regardless of residue management.     

Nitrogen and harvest effects on soil properties under rainfed switchgrass and no‐till corn over 9 years: implications for soil quality

Nitrogen fertilizer and harvest management will alter soils under bioenergy crop production and the long‐term effects of harvest timing and residue removal remain relatively unknown. Compared to no‐tilled corn (NT‐C, Zea mays L.), switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) is predicted to improve soil properties [i.e. soil organic C (SOC), soil microbial biomass (SMB‐C), and soil aggregation] due to its perennial nature and deep‐rooted growth form, but few explicit field comparisons exist. We assessed soil properties over 9 years for a rainfed study of N fertilizer rate (0, 60, 120, and 180 kg N ha^?1) and harvest management on switchgrass (harvested in August and postfrost) and NT‐C (with and without 50% stover removal) in eastern NE. We measured SOC, aggregate stability, SMB‐C, bulk density (BD), pH, P and K in the top 0–30 cm. Both NT‐C and switchgrass increased SMB‐C, SOC content, and aggregate stability over the 9 years, reflecting improvement from previous conventional management. However, the soils under switchgrass had double the percent aggregate stability, 1.3 times more microbial biomass, and a 5–8% decrease in bulk density in the 0–5 and 5–10 cm depths compared to NT‐C. After 9 years, cumulative decrease in available P was significantly greater beneath NT‐C (?24.0 kg P ha^?1) compared to switchgrass (?5.4 kg P ha^?1). When all measured soil parameters were included in the Soil Management Assessment Framework (SMAF), switchgrass improved soil quality index over time (ΔSQI) in all depths. NT‐C without residue removal did not affect ΔSQI, but 50% residue removal decreased ΔSQI (0–30 cm) due to reduced aggregate stability and SMB‐C. Even with best‐management practices such as NT, corn stover removal will have to be carefully managed to prevent soil degradation. Long‐term N and harvest management studies that include biological, chemical, and physical soil measurements are necessary to accurately assess bioenergy impacts on soils.     

Plant roots and GHG mitigation in native perennial bioenergy cropping systems

Native perennial bioenergy crops can mitigate greenhouse gases (GHG) by displacing fossil fuels with renewable energy and sequestering atmospheric carbon (C) in soil and roots. The relative contribution of root C to net GHG mitigation potential has not been compared in perennial bioenergy crops ranging in species diversity and N fertility. We measured root biomass, C, nitrogen (N), and soil organic carbon (SOC) in the upper 90 cm of soil for five native perennial bioenergy crops managed with and without N fertilizer. Bioenergy crops ranged in species composition and were annually harvested for 6 (one location) and 7 years (three locations) following the seeding year. Total root biomass was 84% greater in switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) and a four‐species grass polyculture compared to high‐diversity polycultures; the difference was driven by more biomass at shallow soil depth (0–30 cm). Total root C (0–90 cm) ranged from 3.7 Mg C ha^?1 for a 12‐species mixture to 7.6 Mg C ha^?1 for switchgrass. On average, standing root C accounted for 41% of net GHG mitigation potential. After accounting for farm and ethanol production emissions, net GHG mitigation potential from fossil fuel offsets and root C was greatest for switchgrass (?8.4 Mg CO2e ha^?1 yr^?1) and lowest for high‐diversity mixtures (?4.5 Mg CO2e ha^?1 yr^?1). Nitrogen fertilizer did not affect net GHG mitigation potential or the contribution of roots to GHG mitigation for any bioenergy crop. SOC did not change and therefore did not contribute to GHG mitigation potential. However, associations among SOC, root biomass, and root C : N ratio suggest greater long‐term C storage in diverse polycultures vs. switchgrass. Carbon pools in roots have a greater effect on net GHG mitigation than SOC in the short‐term, yet variation in root characteristics may alter patterns in long‐term C storage among bioenergy crops.     

Consensus,uncertainties and challenges for perennial bioenergy crops and land use

Perennial bioenergy crops have significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and contribute to climate change mitigation by substituting for fossil fuels; yet delivering significant GHG savings will require substantial land‐use change, globally. Over the last decade, research has delivered improved understanding of the environmental benefits and risks of this transition to perennial bioenergy crops, addressing concerns that the impacts of land conversion to perennial bioenergy crops could result in increased rather than decreased GHG emissions. For policymakers to assess the most cost‐effective and sustainable options for deployment and climate change mitigation, synthesis of these studies is needed to support evidence‐based decision making. In 2015, a workshop was convened with researchers, policymakers and industry/business representatives from the UK, EU and internationally. Outcomes from global research on bioenergy land‐use change were compared to identify areas of consensus, key uncertainties, and research priorities. Here, we discuss the strength of evidence for and against six consensus statements summarising the effects of land‐use change to perennial bioenergy crops on the cycling of carbon, nitrogen and water, in the context of the whole life‐cycle of bioenergy production. Our analysis suggests that the direct impacts of dedicated perennial bioenergy crops on soil carbon and nitrous oxide are increasingly well understood and are often consistent with significant life cycle GHG mitigation from bioenergy relative to conventional energy sources. We conclude that the GHG balance of perennial bioenergy crop cultivation will often be favourable, with maximum GHG savings achieved where crops are grown on soils with low carbon stocks and conservative nutrient application, accruing additional environmental benefits such as improved water quality. The analysis reported here demonstrates there is a mature and increasingly comprehensive evidence base on the environmental benefits and risks of bioenergy cultivation which can support the development of a sustainable bioenergy industry.     

Impact of agricultural management practices on soil organic carbon: simulation of Australian wheat systems

Quantifying soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics at a high spatial and temporal resolution in response to different agricultural management practices and environmental conditions can help identify practices that both sequester carbon in the soil and sustain agricultural productivity. Using an agricultural systems model (the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator), we conducted a high spatial resolution and long‐term (122 years) simulation study to identify the key management practices and environmental variables influencing SOC dynamics in a continuous wheat cropping system in Australia's 96 million ha cereal‐growing regions. Agricultural practices included five nitrogen application rates (0–200 kg N ha^?1 in 50 kg N ha^?1 increments), five residue removal rates (0–100% in 25% increments), and five residue incorporation rates (0–100% in 25% increments). We found that the change in SOC during the 122‐year simulation was influenced by the management practices of residue removal (linearly negative) and fertilization (nonlinearly positive) – and the environmental variables of initial SOC content (linearly negative) and temperature (nonlinearly negative). The effects of fertilization were strongest at rates up to 50 kg N ha^?1, and the effects of temperature were strongest where mean annual temperatures exceeded 19 °C. Reducing residue removal and increasing fertilization increased SOC in most areas except Queensland where high rates of SOC decomposition caused by high temperature and soil moisture negated these benefits. Management practices were particularly effective in increasing SOC in south‐west Western Australia – an area with low initial SOC. The results can help target agricultural management practices for increasing SOC in the context of local environmental conditions, enabling farmers to contribute to climate change mitigation and sustaining agricultural production.     

Crop Residue Removal for Bioenergy Reduces Soil Carbon Pools: How Can We Offset Carbon Losses?

Crop residue removal for bioenergy can deplete soil organic carbon (SOC) pools. Management strategies to counteract the adverse effects of residue removal on SOC pools have not been, however, widely discussed. This paper reviews potential practices that can be used to offset the SOC lost with residue removal. Literature indicates that practices including no-till cover crops, manure and compost application, and return of biofuel co-products increase SOC pools and may thus be used to offset some SOC loss. No-till rotations that include semi-perennial grasses or legumes also offer a promise to promote soil-profile C sequestration and improve soil resilience after residue removal. No-till cover crops can sequester between 0.10 and 1 Mg ha^?1 per year of SOC relative to no-till without cover crops, depending on cover crop species, soil type, and precipitation input. Animal manure and compost contain about 15 % of C and thus their addition to soil can enhance SOC pools and boost soil biological activity. Similarly, application of biofuel co-products such as biochar, which contain between 45 % and 85 % of C depending on the feedstock source and processing method, can enhance long-term C sequestration. These mitigation strategies may maintain SOC pools under partial residue removal in no-till soils but are unlikely to replace all the SOC lost if residue is removed at excessive rates. More field research and modeling efforts are needed to assess the magnitude at which the different mitigation strategies can overcome SOC loss with crop residue removal.     

Contribution of above‐ and belowground bioenergy crop residues to soil carbon

GHG mitigation by bioenergy crops depends on crop type, management practices, and the input of residue carbon (C) to the soil. Perennial grasses may increase soil C compared to annual crops because of more extensive root systems, but it is less clear how much soil C is derived from above‐ vs. belowground inputs. The objective of this study was to synthesize the existing knowledge regarding soil C inputs from above‐ and belowground crop residues in regions cultivated with sugarcane, corn, and miscanthus, and to predict the impact of residue removal and tillage on soil C stocks. The literature review showed that aboveground inputs to soil C (to 1‐m depth) ranged from 70% to 81% for sugarcane and corn vs. 40% for miscanthus. Modeled aboveground C inputs (to 30 cm depth) ranged from 54% to 82% for sugarcane, but were 67% for miscanthus. Because 50% of observed miscanthus belowground biomass is below 30 cm depth, it may be necessary to increase the depth of modeled soil C dynamics to reconcile modeled belowground C inputs with measured. Modeled removal of aboveground corn residue (25–100%) resulted in C stock reduction in areas of corn–corn–soybean rotation under conventional tillage, while no‐till management lessoned this impact. In sugarcane, soil C stocks were reduced when total aboveground residue was removed at one site, while partial removal of sugarcane residue did not reduce soil C stocks in either area. This study suggests that aboveground crop residues were the main C‐residue source to the soil in the current bioethanol sector (corn and sugarcane) and the indiscriminate removal of crop residues to produce cellulosic biofuels can reduce soil C stocks and reduce the environmental benefits of bioenergy. Moreover, a switch to feedstocks such as miscanthus with more allocation to belowground C could increase soil C stocks at a much faster rate.     

Simulating greenhouse gas mitigation potentials for Chinese Croplands using the DAYCENT ecosystem model

Understanding the potential for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in agricultural lands is a critical challenge for climate change policy. This study uses the DAYCENT ecosystem model to predict GHG mitigation potentials associated with soil management in Chinese cropland systems. Application of ecosystem models, such as DAYCENT, requires the evaluation of model performance with data sets from experiments relevant to the climate and management of the study region. DAYCENT was evaluated with data from 350 cropland experiments in China, including measurements of nitrous oxide emissions (N₂O), methane emissions (CH₄), and soil organic carbon (SOC) stock changes. In general, the model was reasonably accurate with R² values for model predictions vs. measurements ranging from 0.71 to 0.85. Modeling efficiency varied from 0.65 for SOC stock changes to 0.83 for crop yields. Mitigation potentials were estimated on a yield basis (Mg CO₂‐equivalent Mg^?1Yield). The results demonstrate that the largest decrease in GHG emissions in rainfed systems are associated with combined effect of reducing mineral N fertilization, organic matter amendments and reduced‐till coupled with straw return, estimated at 0.31 to 0.83 Mg CO₂‐equivalent Mg^?1Yield. A mitigation potential of 0.08 to 0.36 Mg CO₂‐equivalent Mg^?1Yield is possible by reducing N chemical fertilizer rates, along with intermittent flooding in paddy rice cropping systems.     

GHG emissions and other environmental impacts of indirect land use change mitigation

The implementation of measures to increase productivity and resource efficiency in food and bioenergy chains as well as to more sustainably manage land use can significantly increase the biofuel production potential while limiting the risk of causing indirect land use change (ILUC). However, the application of these measures may influence the greenhouse gas (GHG) balance and other environmental impacts of agricultural and biofuel production. This study applies a novel, integrated approach to assess the environmental impacts of agricultural and biofuel production for three ILUC mitigation scenarios, representing a low, medium and high miscanthus‐based ethanol production potential, and for three agricultural intensification pathways in terms of sustainability in Lublin province in 2020. Generally, the ILUC mitigation scenarios attain lower net annual emissions compared to a baseline scenario that excludes ILUC mitigation and bioethanol production. However, the reduction potential significantly depends on the intensification pathway considered. For example, in the moderate ILUC mitigation scenario, the net annual GHG emissions in the case study are 2.3 MtCO₂‐eq yr^?1 (1.8 tCO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1) for conventional intensification and ?0.8 MtCO₂‐eq yr^?1 (?0.6 tCO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1) for sustainable intensification, compared to 3.0 MtCO₂‐eq yr^?1 (2.3 tCO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1) in the baseline scenario. In addition, the intensification pathway is found to be more influential for the GHG balance than the ILUC mitigation scenario, indicating the importance of how agricultural intensification is implemented in practice. Furthermore, when the net emissions are included in the assessment of GHG emissions from bioenergy, the ILUC mitigation scenarios often abate GHG emissions compared to gasoline. But sustainable intensification is required to attain GHG abatement potentials of 90% or higher. A qualitative assessment of the impacts on biodiversity, water quantity and quality, soil quality and air quality also emphasizes the importance of sustainable intensification.     

Soil greenhouse gas fluxes and global warming potential in four high-yielding maize systems

Crop intensification is often thought to increase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but studies in which crop management is optimized to exploit crop yield potential are rare. We conducted a field study in eastern Nebraska, USA to quantify GHG emissions, changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) and the net global warming potential (GWP) in four irrigated systems: continuous maize with recommended best management practices (CC‐rec) or intensive management (CC‐int) and maize–soybean rotation with recommended (CS‐rec) or intensive management (CS‐int). Grain yields of maize and soybean were generally within 80–100% of the estimated site yield potential. Large soil surface carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes were mostly associated with rapid crop growth, high temperature and high soil water content. Within each crop rotation, soil CO₂ efflux under intensive management was not consistently higher than with recommended management. Owing to differences in residue inputs, SOC increased in the two continuous maize systems, but decreased in CS‐rec or remained unchanged in CS‐int. N₂O emission peaks were mainly associated with high temperature and high soil water content resulting from rainfall or irrigation events, but less clearly related to soil NO₃‐N levels. N₂O fluxes in intensively managed systems were only occasionally greater than those measured in the CC‐rec and CS‐rec systems. Fertilizer‐induced N₂O emissions ranged from 1.9% to 3.5% in 2003, from 0.8% to 1.5% in 2004 and from 0.4% to 0.5% in 2005, with no consistent differences among the four systems. All four cropping systems where net sources of GHG. However, due to increased soil C sequestration continuous maize systems had lower GWP than maize–soybean systems and intensive management did not cause a significant increase in GWP. Converting maize grain to ethanol in the two continuous maize systems resulted in a net reduction in life cycle GHG emissions of maize ethanol relative to petrol‐based gasoline by 33–38%. Our study provided evidence that net GHG emissions from agricultural systems can be kept low when management is optimized toward better exploitation of the yield potential. Major components for this included (i) choosing the right combination of adopted varieties, planting date and plant population to maximize crop biomass productivity, (ii) tactical water and nitrogen (N) management decisions that contributed to high N use efficiency and avoided extreme N₂O emissions, and (iii) a deep tillage and residue management approach that favored the build‐up of soil organic matter from large amounts of crop residues returned.     

A long‐term nitrogen fertilizer gradient has little effect on soil organic matter in a high‐intensity maize production system

Global maize production alters an enormous soil organic C (SOC) stock, ultimately affecting greenhouse gas concentrations and the capacity of agroecosystems to buffer climate variability. Inorganic N fertilizer is perhaps the most important factor affecting SOC within maize‐based systems due to its effects on crop residue production and SOC mineralization. Using a continuous maize cropping system with a 13 year N fertilizer gradient (0–269 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1) that created a large range in crop residue inputs (3.60–9.94 Mg dry matter ha^?1 yr^?1), we provide the first agronomic assessment of long‐term N fertilizer effects on SOC with direct reference to N rates that are empirically determined to be insufficient, optimum, and excessive. Across the N fertilizer gradient, SOC in physico‐chemically protected pools was not affected by N fertilizer rate or residue inputs. However, unprotected particulate organic matter (POM) fractions increased with residue inputs. Although N fertilizer was negatively linearly correlated with POM C/N ratios, the slope of this relationship decreased from the least decomposed POM pools (coarse POM) to the most decomposed POM pools (fine intra‐aggregate POM). Moreover, C/N ratios of protected pools did not vary across N rates, suggesting little effect of N fertilizer on soil organic matter (SOM) after decomposition of POM. Comparing a N rate within 4% of agronomic optimum (208 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1) and an excessive N rate (269 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1), there were no differences between SOC amount, SOM C/N ratios, or microbial biomass and composition. These data suggest that excessive N fertilizer had little effect on SOM and they complement agronomic assessments of environmental N losses, that demonstrate N₂O and NO₃ emissions exponentially increase when agronomic optimum N is surpassed.     

A multi‐criteria based review of models that predict environmental impacts of land use‐change for perennial energy crops on water,carbon and nitrogen cycling

Reduction in energy sector greenhouse gas GHG emissions is a key aim of European Commission plans to expand cultivation of bioenergy crops. Since agriculture makes up 10–12% of anthropogenic GHG emissions, impacts of land‐use change must be considered, which requires detailed understanding of specific changes to agroecosystems. The greenhouse gas (GHG) balance of perennials may differ significantly from the previous ecosystem. Net change in GHG emissions with land‐use change for bioenergy may exceed avoided fossil fuel emissions, meaning that actual GHG mitigation benefits are variable. Carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling are complex interlinked systems, and a change in land management may affect both differently at different sites, depending on other variables. Change in evapotranspiration with land‐use change may also have significant environmental or water resource impacts at some locations. This article derives a multi‐criteria based decision analysis approach to objectively identify the most appropriate assessment method of the environmental impacts of land‐use change for perennial energy crops. Based on a literature review and conceptual model in support of this approach, the potential impacts of land‐use change for perennial energy crops on GHG emissions and evapotranspiration were identified, as well as likely controlling variables. These findings were used to structure the decision problem and to outline model requirements. A process‐based model representing the complete agroecosystem was identified as the best predictive tool, where adequate data are available. Nineteen models were assessed according to suitability criteria, to identify current model capability, based on the conceptual model, and explicit representation of processes at appropriate resolution. FASSET, ECOSSE, ANIMO, DNDC, DayCent, Expert‐N, Ecosys, WNMM and CERES‐NOE were identified as appropriate models, with factors such as crop, location and data availability dictating the final decision for a given project. A database to inform such decisions is included.     

21st‐century biogeochemical modeling: Challenges for Century‐based models and where do we go from here?

21st‐century modeling of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from bioenergy crops is necessary to quantify the extent to which bioenergy production can mitigate climate change. For over 30 years, the Century‐based biogeochemical models have provided the preeminent framework for belowground carbon and nitrogen cycling in ecosystem and earth system models. While monthly Century and the daily time‐step version of Century (DayCent) have advanced our ability to predict the sustainability of bioenergy crop production, new advances in feedstock generation, and our empirical understanding of sources and sinks of GHGs in soils call for a re‐visitation of DayCent's core model structures. Here, we evaluate current challenges with modeling soil carbon dynamics, trace gas fluxes, and drought and age‐related impacts on bioenergy crop productivity. We propose coupling a microbial process‐based soil organic carbon and nitrogen model with DayCent to improve soil carbon dynamics. We describe recent improvements to DayCent for simulating unique plant structural and physiological attributes of perennial bioenergy grasses. Finally, we propose a method for using machine learning to identify key parameters for simulating N₂O emissions. Our efforts are focused on meeting the needs for modeling bioenergy crops; however, many updates reviewed and suggested to DayCent will be broadly applicable to other systems.     

Global simulation of bioenergy crop productivity: analytical framework and case study for switchgrass

A global energy crop productivity model that provides geospatially explicit quantitative details on biomass potential and factors affecting sustainability would be useful, but does not exist now. This study describes a modeling platform capable of meeting many challenges associated with global‐scale agro‐ecosystem modeling. We designed an analytical framework for bioenergy crops consisting of six major components: (i) standardized natural resources datasets, (ii) global field‐trial data and crop management practices, (iii) simulation units and management scenarios, (iv) model calibration and validation, (v) high‐performance computing (HPC) simulation, and (vi) simulation output processing and analysis. The HPC‐Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (HPC‐EPIC) model simulated a perennial bioenergy crop, switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), estimating feedstock production potentials and effects across the globe. This modeling platform can assess soil C sequestration, net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, nonpoint source pollution (e.g., nutrient and pesticide loss), and energy exchange with the atmosphere. It can be expanded to include additional bioenergy crops (e.g., miscanthus, energy cane, and agave) and food crops under different management scenarios. The platform and switchgrass field‐trial dataset are available to support global analysis of biomass feedstock production potential and corresponding metrics of sustainability.     

The impact of interventions in the global land and agri‐food sectors on Nature’s Contributions to People and the UN Sustainable Development Goals

Interlocked challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss, and land degradation require transformative interventions in the land management and food production sectors to reduce carbon emissions, strengthen adaptive capacity, and increase food security. However, deciding which interventions to pursue and understanding their relative co‐benefits with and trade‐offs against different social and environmental goals have been difficult without comparisons across a range of possible actions. This study examined 40 different options, implemented through land management, value chains, or risk management, for their relative impacts across 18 Nature's Contributions to People (NCPs) and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We find that a relatively small number of interventions show positive synergies with both SDGs and NCPs with no significant adverse trade‐offs; these include improved cropland management, improved grazing land management, improved livestock management, agroforestry, integrated water management, increased soil organic carbon content, reduced soil erosion, salinization, and compaction, fire management, reduced landslides and hazards, reduced pollution, reduced post‐harvest losses, improved energy use in food systems, and disaster risk management. Several interventions show potentially significant negative impacts on both SDGs and NCPs; these include bioenergy and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, afforestation, and some risk sharing measures, like commercial crop insurance. Our results demonstrate that a better understanding of co‐benefits and trade‐offs of different policy approaches can help decision‐makers choose the more effective, or at the very minimum, more benign interventions for implementation.     

Large-scale deployment of grass in crop rotations as a multifunctional climate mitigation strategy

The agriculture sector can contribute to climate change mitigation by reducing its own greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, sequestering carbon in vegetation and soils, and providing biomass to substitute for fossil fuels and other GHG-intensive products. The sector also needs to address water, soil, and biodiversity impacts caused by historic and current practices. Emerging EU policies create incentives for cultivation of perennial plants that provide biomass along with environmental benefits. One such option, common in northern Europe, is to include grass in rotations with annual crops to provide biomass while remediating soil organic carbon (SOC) losses and other environmental impacts. Here, we apply a spatially explicit model on >81,000 sub-watersheds in EU27 + UK (Europe) to explore the effects of widespread deployment of such systems. Based on current accumulated SOC losses in individual sub-watersheds, the model identifies and quantifies suitable areas for increased grass cultivation and corresponding biomass- and protein supply, SOC sequestration, and reductions in nitrogen emissions to water as well as wind and water erosion. The model also provides information about possible flood mitigation. The results indicate a substantial climate mitigation potential, with combined annual GHG savings from soil-carbon sequestration and displacement of natural gas with biogas from grass-based biorefineries, equivalent to 13%–48% of current GHG emissions from agriculture in Europe. The environmental co-benefits are also notable, in some cases exceeding the estimated mitigation needs. Yield increases for annual crops in modified rotations mitigate the displacement effect of increasing grass cultivation. If the grass is used as feedstock in lieu of annual crops, the displacement effect can even be negative, that is, a reduced need for annual crop production elsewhere. Incentivizing widespread deployment will require supportive policy measures as well as new uses of grass biomass, for example, as feedstock for green biorefineries producing protein concentrate, biofuels, and other bio-based products.