Low oxygen levels can help to prevent the detrimental effect of acute warming on mitochondrial efficiency in fish

Aerobic metabolism of aquatic ectotherms is highly sensitive to fluctuating climates. Many mitochondrial traits exhibit phenotypic plasticity in response to acute variations in temperature and oxygen availability. These responses are critical for understanding the effects of environmental variations on aquatic ectotherms'' performance. Using the European seabass, Dicentrarchus labrax, we determined the effects of acute warming and deoxygenation in vitro on mitochondrial respiratory capacities and mitochondrial efficiency to produce ATP (ATP/O ratio). We show that acute warming reduced ATP/O ratio but deoxygenation marginally raised ATP/O ratio, leading to a compensatory effect of low oxygen availability on mitochondrial ATP/O ratio at high temperature. The acute effect of warming and deoxygenation on mitochondrial efficiency might be related to the leak of protons across the mitochondrial inner membrane, as the mitochondrial respiration required to counteract the proton leak increased with warming and decreased with deoxygenation. Our study underlines the importance of integrating the combined effects of temperature and oxygen availability on mitochondrial metabolism. Predictions on decline in performance of aquatic ectotherms owing to climate change may not be accurate, since these predictions typically look at respiratory capacity and ignore efficiency of ATP production.     

Mesocosms Reveal Ecological Surprises from Climate Change

Understanding, predicting, and mitigating the impacts of climate change on biodiversity poses one of the most crucial challenges this century. Currently, we know more about how future climates are likely to shift across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes. Two recent studies show how mesocosm experiments can hasten understanding of the ecological consequences of climate change on species’ extinction risk, community structure, and ecosystem functions. Using a large-scale terrestrial warming experiment, Bestion et al. provide the first direct evidence that future global warming can increase extinction risk for temperate ectotherms. Using aquatic mesocosms, Yvon-Durocher et al. show that human-induced climate change could, in some cases, actually enhance the diversity of local communities, increasing productivity. Blending these theoretical and empirical results with computational models will improve forecasts of biodiversity loss and altered ecosystem processes due to climate change.     

Climate warming and agricultural stressors interact to determine stream periphyton community composition

Lack of knowledge about how the various drivers of global climate change will interact with multiple stressors already affecting ecosystems is the basis for great uncertainty in projections of future biological change. Despite concerns about the impacts of changes in land use, eutrophication and climate warming in running waters, the interactive effects of these stressors on stream periphyton are largely unknown. We manipulated nutrients (simulating agricultural runoff), deposited fine sediment (simulating agricultural erosion) (two levels each) and water temperature (eight levels, 0–6 °C above ambient) simultaneously in 128 streamside mesocosms. Our aim was to determine the individual and combined effects of the three stressors on the algal and bacterial constituents of the periphyton. All three stressors had pervasive individual effects, but in combination frequently produced synergisms at the population level and antagonisms at the community level. Depending on sediment and nutrient conditions, the effect of raised temperature frequently produced contrasting response patterns, with stronger or opposing effects when one or both stressors were augmented. Thus, warming tended to interact negatively with nutrients or sediment by weakening or reversing positive temperature effects or strengthening negative ones. Five classes of algal growth morphology were all affected in complex ways by raised temperature, suggesting that these measures may prove unreliable in biomonitoring programs in a warming climate. The evenness and diversity of the most abundant bacterial taxa increased with temperature at ambient but not with enriched nutrient levels, indicating that warming coupled with nutrient limitation may lead to a more evenly distributed bacterial community as temperatures rise. Freshwater management decisions that seek to avoid or mitigate the negative effects of agricultural land use on stream periphyton should be informed by knowledge of the interactive effects of multiple stressors in a warming climate.     

Non-climatic thermal adaptation: implications for species' responses to climate warming

There is considerable interest in understanding how ectothermic animals may physiologically and behaviourally buffer the effects of climate warming. Much less consideration is being given to how organisms might adapt to non-climatic heat sources in ways that could confound predictions for responses of species and communities to climate warming. Although adaptation to non-climatic heat sources (solar and geothermal) seems likely in some marine species, climate warming predictions for marine ectotherms are largely based on adaptation to climatically relevant heat sources (air or surface sea water temperature). Here, we show that non-climatic solar heating underlies thermal resistance adaptation in a rocky–eulittoral-fringe snail. Comparisons of the maximum temperatures of the air, the snail''s body and the rock substratum with solar irradiance and physiological performance show that the highest body temperature is primarily controlled by solar heating and re-radiation, and that the snail''s upper lethal temperature exceeds the highest climatically relevant regional air temperature by approximately 22°C. Non-climatic thermal adaptation probably features widely among marine and terrestrial ectotherms and because it could enable species to tolerate climatic rises in air temperature, it deserves more consideration in general and for inclusion into climate warming models.     

淡水湖泊浮游藻类对富营养化和气候变暖的响应

水体富营养化和气候变暖是淡水生态系统面临的两大威胁。文章分别阐述了富营养化和气候变暖对淡水湖泊浮游藻类直接和间接效应, 并总结气候变暖可能通过影响水体理化性质、水生植物组成、食物链结构从而直接或间接改变浮游藻类生物量或群落结构。作者重点分析了气候变暖下湖泊生态系统蓝藻水华暴发机制, 比较了不同湖泊蓝藻对气候变暖和富营养化响应的异同点, 发现气候变暖和富营养化对湖泊生态系统影响存在相似性, 表现在均促进湖泊由清水-浊水稳态转变、增加蓝藻水华发生频率和强度。然而二者对湖泊浮游藻类影响的相对重要性取决于分层型湖泊和混合型湖泊的差异性、不同营养型湖泊和不同类群蓝藻组成差异性。作者认为, 开展气候变暖和富营养化下, 湖泊浮游藻类功能群响应研究亟待进行。     

Field and laboratory studies reveal interacting effects of stream oxygenation and warming on aquatic ectotherms

Aquatic ecological responses to climatic warming are complicated by interactions between thermal effects and other environmental stressors such as organic pollution and hypoxia. Laboratory experiments have demonstrated how oxygen limitation can set heat tolerance for some aquatic ectotherms, but only at unrealistic lethal temperatures and without field data to assess whether oxygen shortages might also underlie sublethal warming effects. Here, we test whether oxygen availability affects both lethal and nonlethal impacts of warming on two widespread Eurasian mayflies, Ephemera danica, Müller 1764 and Serratella ignita (Poda 1761). Mayfly nymphs are often a dominant component of the invertebrate assemblage in streams, and play a vital role in aquatic and riparian food webs. In the laboratory, lethal impacts of warming were assessed under three oxygen conditions. In the field, effects of oxygen availability on nonlethal impacts of warming were assessed from mayfly occurrence in 42 293 UK stream samples where water temperature and biochemical oxygen demand were measured. Oxygen limitation affected both lethal and sublethal impacts of warming in each species. Hypoxia lowered lethal limits by 5.5 °C (±2.13) and 8.2 °C (±0.62) for E. danica and S. ignita respectively. Field data confirmed the importance of oxygen limitation in warmer waters; poor oxygenation drastically reduced site occupancy, and reductions were especially pronounced under warm water conditions. Consequently, poor oxygenation lowered optimal stream temperatures for both species. The broad concordance shown here between laboratory results and extensive field data suggests that oxygen limitation not only impairs survival at thermal extremes but also restricts species abundance in the field at temperatures well below upper lethal limits. Stream oxygenation could thus control the vulnerability of aquatic ectotherms to global warming. Improving water oxygenation and reducing pollution can provide key facets of climate change adaptation for running waters.     

Degrees of disruption: projected temperature increase has catastrophic consequences for reproduction in a tropical ectotherm

Although climate change models predict relatively modest increases in temperature in the tropics by the end of the century, recent analyses identify tropical ectotherms as the organisms most at risk from climate warming. Because metabolic rate in ectotherms increases exponentially with temperature, even a small rise in temperature poses a physiological threat to tropical ectotherms inhabiting an already hot environment. If correct, the metabolic theory of climate warming has profound implications for global biodiversity, since tropical insects and arachnids constitute the vast majority of animal species. Predicting how climate change will translate into fitness consequences for tropical arthropods requires an understanding of the effects of temperature increase on the entire life history of the species. Here, in a comprehensive case study of the fitness consequences of the projected temperature increase for the tropics, we conducted a split‐brood experiment on the neotropical pseudoscorpion, Cordylochernes scorpioides, in which 792 offspring from 33 females were randomly assigned at birth to control‐ and high‐temperature treatments for rearing through the adult stage. The diurnally varying, control treatment temperature was determined from long‐term, average daily temperature minima and maxima in the pseudoscorpion's native habitat. In the high temperature treatment, increasing temperature by the 3.5 °C predicted for the tropics significantly reduced survival and accelerated development at the cost of reduced adult size and a dramatic decrease in level of sexual dimorphism. The most striking effects, however, involved reproductive traits. Reared at high temperature, males produced 45% as many sperm as control males, and females failed to reproduce. Sequencing of the mitochondrial ND2 gene revealed two highly divergent haplogroups that differed substantially in developmental rate and survivorship but not in reproductive response to high temperature. Our findings suggest that reproduction may be the Achilles’ heel of tropical ectotherms, as climate warming subjects them to an increasingly adverse thermal environment.     

Synergistic effects of water temperature and dissolved nutrients on litter decomposition and associated fungi

In woodland streams, the decomposition of allochthonous organic matter constitutes a fundamental ecosystem process, where aquatic hyphomycetes play a pivotal role. It is therefore greatly affected by water temperature and nutrient concentrations. The individual effects of these factors on the decomposition of litter have been studied previously. However, in the climate warming scenario predicted for this century, water temperature and nutrient concentrations are expected to increase simultaneously, and their combined effects on litter decomposition and associated biological activity remains unevaluated. In this study, we addressed the individual and combined effects of water temperature (three levels) and nutrient concentrations (two levels) on the decomposition of alder leaves and associated aquatic hyphomycetes in microcosms. Decomposition rates across treatments varied between 0.0041 day^?1 at 5 °C and low nutrient level and 0.0100 day^?1 at 15 °C and high nutrient level. The stimulation of biological variables at high nutrients and temperatures indicates that nutrient enrichment of streams might have a higher stimulatory effect on fungal performance and decomposition rates under a warming scenario than at present. The stimulation of fungal biomass and sporulation with increasing temperature at both nutrient levels shows that increases in water temperature might enhance fungal growth and reproduction in both oligotrophic and eutrophic streams. The stimulation of fungal respiration and litter decomposition with increasing temperature at high nutrients indicates that stimulation of carbon mineralization will probably occur at eutrophied streams, while oligotrophic conditions seem to be ‘protected’ from warming. All biological variables were stimulated when both factors increased, as a result of synergistic interactions between factors. Increased water temperature and nutrient level also affected the structure of aquatic hyphomycete assemblages. It is plausible that if water quality of presently eutrophied streams is improved, the potential stimulatory effects of future increases in water temperature on aquatic biota and processes might be mitigated.     

Paleolimnologic Evidence for Recent Eutrophication in the Valley of the Great Lakes (Mongolia)

Climate warming and major land-use changes have profoundly affected the Mongolian landscape in the past several decades. Previous studies have recognized the impacts of a warmer, more arid climate and Mongolia’s 1991 transition from a command to a market economy on terrestrial ecosystems, including impaired sustainability of subsistence herding and threats to wild animals. In this study, we examined the combined effects of changing climate and herding practices on lake eutrophication in Western Mongolia. We sampled 65 lakes for modern nutrients and found the majority of lakes were eutrophic to hyper-eutrophic. Sediment cores were taken from five of the lakes to compare current lake status to paleolimnologial measures of lake eutrophication over the past 100–2000 years, including changes in diatom assemblages, diatom-inferred total phosphorus, biogenic silica, organic matter, and sediment accumulation rates. Variance partitioning analysis showed that recent shifts in diatom assemblages were related to changes in both climate and herding practices. The results presented here demonstrate a need for further study and long-term monitoring of water quality in Mongolia to understand the complicated interactions of climate and land use on aquatic resources and to preserve water quality in this remote and ecologically important region.     

Drought-induced changes in nutrient concentrations and retention in two shallow Mediterranean lakes subjected to different degrees of management

While extensive knowledge exists on the relationship between nutrient loading and nutrient concentrations in lakes in the cold temperate region, few studies have been conducted in warm lakes, not least in warm arid lakes. This is unfortunate as a larger proportion of the world’s lakes will be situated in arid climates in the future due to climate change and a larger proportion will suffer from a higher frequency of intensive drought. We conducted a comprehensive 11–13 year mass balance study in two interconnected shallow Mediterranean lakes in Turkey, covering a period with substantial changes in climate conditions. The upstream lake was only affected by natural changes in nutrient loading, while the downstream lake was additionally influenced by sewage diversion and restoration by fish removal. Contrasting to experience from north temperate lakes we found an increase in in-lake concentrations of total phosphorus and inorganic nitrogen (ammonia as well as nitrate) in dry years despite lower external nutrient loading, and submerged macrophytes did not increase the nitrogen retention capacity of the lakes. In contrast, fish removal modulated the nitrogen concentration as in north temperate lakes, but the effect was not long-lasting. Our results suggest that climate warming reduces the nutrient retention capacity of shallow lakes in the Mediterranean and exacerbates eutrophication. Lower thresholds of nutrient loading for shifting turbid shallow lakes to a clear water state are therefore to be expected in arid zones in a future warmer climate, with important management implications.     

Animal behaviour shapes the ecological effects of ocean acidification and warming: moving from individual to community‐level responses

Biological communities are shaped by complex interactions between organisms and their environment as well as interactions with other species. Humans are rapidly changing the marine environment through increasing greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in ocean warming and acidification. The first response by animals to environmental change is predominantly through modification of their behaviour, which in turn affects species interactions and ecological processes. Yet, many climate change studies ignore animal behaviour. Furthermore, our current knowledge of how global change alters animal behaviour is mostly restricted to single species, life phases and stressors, leading to an incomplete view of how coinciding climate stressors can affect the ecological interactions that structure biological communities. Here, we first review studies on the effects of warming and acidification on the behaviour of marine animals. We demonstrate how pervasive the effects of global change are on a wide range of critical behaviours that determine the persistence of species and their success in ecological communities. We then evaluate several approaches to studying the ecological effects of warming and acidification, and identify knowledge gaps that need to be filled, to better understand how global change will affect marine populations and communities through altered animal behaviours. Our review provides a synthesis of the far‐reaching consequences that behavioural changes could have for marine ecosystems in a rapidly changing environment. Without considering the pervasive effects of climate change on animal behaviour we will limit our ability to forecast the impacts of ocean change and provide insights that can aid management strategies.     

Impacts of climate warming on lake fish community structure and potential effects on ecosystem function

Fish play a key role in the trophic dynamics of lakes, not least in shallow systems. With climate warming, complex changes in fish community structure may be expected owing to the direct and indirect effects of temperature, and indirect effects of eutrophication, water-level changes and salinisation on fish metabolism, biotic interactions and geographical distribution. We review published and new data supporting the hypotheses that, with a warming climate, there will be changes in: fish community structure (e.g. higher or lower richness depending on local conditions); life history traits (e.g. smaller body size, shorter life span, earlier and less synchronised reproduction); feeding mode (i.e. increased omnivory and herbivory); behaviour (i.e. stronger association with littoral areas and a greater proportion of benthivores); and winter survival. All these changes imply higher predation on zooplankton and macroinvertebrates with increasing temperatures, suggesting that the changes in the fish communities partly resemble, and may intensify, the effects triggered by eutrophication. Modulating factors identified in cold and temperate systems, such as the presence of submerged plants and winter ice cover, seem to be weaker or non-existent in warm(ing) lakes. Consequently, in the future lower nutrient thresholds may be needed to obtain clear-water conditions and good ecological status in the future in currently cold or temperate lakes. Although examples are still scarce and more research is needed, we foresee biomanipulation to be a less successful restoration tool in warm(ing) lakes without a strong reduction of the nutrient load.     

Cool shade and not-so-cool shade: How habitat loss may accelerate thermal stress under current and future climate

Worldwide habitat loss, land-use changes, and climate change threaten biodiversity, and we urgently need models that predict the combined impacts of these threats on organisms. Current models, however, overlook microhabitat diversity within landscapes and so do not accurately inform conservation efforts, particularly for ectotherms. Here, we built and field-parameterized a model to examine the effects of habitat loss and climate change on activity and microhabitat selection by a diurnal desert lizard. Our model predicted that lizards in rock-free areas would reduce summer activity levels (e.g. foraging, basking) and that future warming will gradually decrease summer activity in rocky areas, as even large rocks become thermally stressful. Warmer winters will enable more activity but will require bushes and small rocks as shade retreats. Hence, microhabitats that may seem unimportant today will become important under climate change. Modelling frameworks should consider the microhabitat requirements of organisms to improve conservation outcomes.     

Predicting cyanobacterial dynamics in the face of global change: the importance of scale and environmental context

There is growing concern that harmful cyanobacterial blooms are increasing in frequency and occurrence around the world. Although nutrient enrichment is commonly identified as a key predictor of cyanobacterial abundance and dominance in freshwaters, several studies have shown that variables related to climate change can also play an important role. Based on our analysis of the literature, we hypothesized that temperature or water‐column stability will be the primary drivers of cyanobacterial abundance in stratified lakes whereas nutrients will be the stronger predictors in frequently mixing water bodies. To test this hypothesis, as well as quantify the drivers of cyanobacteria over different scales and identify interactions between nutrients and climate‐related variables, we applied linear and nonlinear mixed‐effect modeling techniques to seasonal time‐series data from multiple lakes. We first compared time series of cyanobacterial dominance to a published lake survey and found that the models were similar. Using time‐series data of cyanobacterial biomass, we identified important interactions among nutrients and climate‐related variables; dimictic basin experienced a heightened susceptibility to cyanobacterial blooms under stratified eutrophic conditions, whereas polymictic basins were less sensitive to changes in temperature or stratification. Overall, our results show that due to predictable interactions among nutrients and temperature, polymictic and dimictic lakes are expected to respond differently to future climate warming and eutrophication.     

Can warm climate‐related structure of littoral predator assemblies weaken the clear water state in shallow lakes?

Shallow lakes, the most abundant lake type in the world, are very sensitive to climatic changes. The structure and functioning of shallow lakes are greatly impacted by submerged plants, and these may be affected by climate warming in various, contrasting, ways. Following a space‐for‐time substitution approach, we aimed to analyse the role of aquatic (submerged and free‐floating) plants in shallow lakes under warm climates. We introduced artificial submerged and free‐floating plant beds in five comparable lakes located in the temperate zone (Denmark, 55–57 °N) and in the subtropical zone (Uruguay, 30–35 °S), with the aim to study the structure and dynamics of the main associated communities. Regardless of differences in environmental variables, such as area, water transparency and nutrient status, we found consistent patterns in littoral community dynamics and structure (i.e. densities and composition of fish, zooplankton, macroinvertebrates, and periphyton) within, but substantial differences between, the two regions. Subtropical fish communities within the macrophyte beds exhibited higher diversity, higher density, smaller size, lower relative abundance of potentially piscivores, and a preference for submerged plants, compared with otherwise similar temperate lakes. By contrast, macroinvertebrates and cladocerans had higher taxon richness and densities, and periphyton higher biomass, in the temperate lakes. Several indicators suggest that the fish predation pressure was much stronger among the plants in the subtropical lakes. The antipredator behaviour of cladocerans also differed significantly between climate zones. Submerged and free‐floating plants exerted different effects on the spatial distribution of the main communities, the effects differing between the climate zones. In the temperate lakes, submerged plants promoted trophic interactions with potentially positive cascading effects on water transparency, in contrast to the free‐floating plants, and in strong contrast to the findings in the subtropical lakes. The higher impact of fish may result in higher sensitivity of warm lakes to external changes (e.g. increase in nutrient loading or water level changes). The current process of warming, particularly in temperate lakes, may entail an increased sensitivity to eutrophication, and a threat to the high diversity, clear water state.     

Why tropical forest lizards are vulnerable to climate warming

Biological impacts of climate warming are predicted to increase with latitude, paralleling increases in warming. However, the magnitude of impacts depends not only on the degree of warming but also on the number of species at risk, their physiological sensitivity to warming and their options for behavioural and physiological compensation. Lizards are useful for evaluating risks of warming because their thermal biology is well studied. We conducted macrophysiological analyses of diurnal lizards from diverse latitudes plus focal species analyses of Puerto Rican Anolis and Sphaerodactyus. Although tropical lowland lizards live in environments that are warm all year, macrophysiological analyses indicate that some tropical lineages (thermoconformers that live in forests) are active at low body temperature and are intolerant of warm temperatures. Focal species analyses show that some tropical forest lizards were already experiencing stressful body temperatures in summer when studied several decades ago. Simulations suggest that warming will not only further depress their physiological performance in summer, but will also enable warm-adapted, open-habitat competitors and predators to invade forests. Forest lizards are key components of tropical ecosystems, but appear vulnerable to the cascading physiological and ecological effects of climate warming, even though rates of tropical warming may be relatively low.     

Histological evidence that diploid hybrids of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cobitis taenia</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">C. elongatoides</Emphasis> (Teleostei,Cobitidae) develop into fertile females and sterile males

Rising temperatures likely affect the trophic interactions in temperate regions as global warming progresses. An open question is how a temperature rise may affect consumer pressure and plant abundance in shallow aquatic ecosystems, where most consumers are omnivorous. Interestingly, herbivory (plant-eating) is more prevalent toward low latitudes in ectotherms such as fish and aquatic invertebrates, and this may be temperature driven. We used pond snails (Lymnaea stagnalis L.) as a model aquatic ectotherm species and tested their consumption of both animal prey (Gammarus pulex L.) and plant material (Potamogeton lucens L.) at three different temperatures (15, 20, and 25°C). Higher temperatures led to higher consumption rates by the omnivore on both plant food and animal prey when fed separately. When the food was offered simultaneously, the pond snails consistently preferred animal prey over plant material at all tested temperatures. However, the omnivore did consume plant material even though they had enough animal prey available to them. Based on our experiments, we conclude that with increasing temperatures, L. stagnalis will only increase their consumption rates but not change food preference. Further studies are needed to test the generality of our findings across aquatic species to predict the effect of warming on aquatic plant consumption.     

气候变暖与富营养化交互作用对浅水湖泊水-气界面N2O通量的影响

研究通过构建中尺度控温围隔模拟系统, 模拟21世纪末气候变化与富营养化趋势, 探讨未来气候变暖与富营养化趋势下浅水湖泊水-气界面N₂O交换过程的响应特征及机制。结果表明: (1)恒定与波动升温引起的代谢过程及生物间相互作用的改变显著促进了水-气界面间N₂O的排放及年累积释放量, 而磷的添加可能因为影响了水体中反硝化代谢的效率而削弱了水-气界面N₂O排放及年累积释放量; (2)实验期间随季节转换, 控制系统内优势的初级生产者由水生植物转变为浮游植物, 水体中有机质含量亦不断积累, 研究结果表明季节变化及初级生产者转换均对水-气界面N₂O排放量的增加起到了显著促进作用。在气候变化与富营养化趋势下浅水湖泊水-气界面的N₂O交换过程主要受到水体中氮磷含量及其比例的变化、水生植物与浮游植物的转换及有机质的积累过程的影响。因此, 气候变暖(恒定和波动升温)能够促进湖泊N₂O排放量的上升, 而变暖和营养盐的交互作用会使水-气界面N₂O交换更加复杂。     

Ontogenetic Variation in the Thermal Biology of Yarrow's Spiny Lizard,Sceloporus jarrovii

Climate change is rapidly altering the way current species interact with their environment to satisfy life-history demands. In areas anticipated to experience extreme warming, rising temperatures are expected to diminish population growth, due either to environmental degradation, or the inability to tolerate novel temperature regimes. Determining how at risk ectotherms, and lizards in particular, are to changes in climate traditionally emphasizes the thermal ecology and thermal sensitivity of physiology of adult members of a population. In this study, we reveal ontogenetic differences in thermal physiological and ecological traits that have been used to anticipate how ectotherms will respond to climate change. We show that the thermal biological traits of juvenile Yarrow’s Spiny Lizards (Sceloporus jarrovii) differ from the published estimates of the same traits for adult lizards. Juvenile S. jarrovii differ in their optimal performance temperature, field field-active body temperature, and critical thermal temperatures compared to adult S. jarrovii. Within juvenile S. jarrovii, males and females exhibit differences in field-active body temperature and desiccation tolerance. Given the observed age- and sex-related variation in thermal physiology, we argue that not including physiological differences in thermal biology throughout ontogeny may lead to misinterpretation of patterns of ecological or evolutionary change due to climate warming. Further characterizing the potential for ontogenetic changes in thermal biology would be useful for a more precise and accurate estimation of the role of thermal physiology in mediating population persistence in warmer environments.     

Effects of experimental watering but not warming on herbivory vary across a gradient of precipitation

Climate change can affect biotic interactions, and the impacts of climate on biotic interactions may vary across climate gradients. Climate affects biotic interactions through multiple drivers, although few studies have investigated multiple climate drivers in experiments. We examined the effects of experimental watering, warming, and predator access on leaf water content and herbivory rates of woolly bear caterpillars (Arctia virginalis) on a native perennial plant, pacific silverweed (Argentina anserina ssp. pacifica), at two sites across a gradient of precipitation in coastal California. Based on theory, we predicted that watering should increase herbivory at the drier end of the gradient, predation should decrease herbivory, and watering and warming should have positive interacting effects on herbivory. Consistent with our predictions, we found that watering only increased herbivory under drier conditions. However, watering increased leaf water content at both wetter and drier sites. Warming increased herbivory irrespective of local climate and did not interact with watering. Predation did not affect herbivory rates. Given predictions that the study locales will become warmer and drier with climate change, our results suggest that the effects of future warming and drying on herbivory may counteract each other in drier regions of the range of Argentina anserina. Our findings suggest a useful role for range‐limit theory and the stress‐gradient hypothesis in predicting climate change effects on herbivory across stress gradients. Specifically, if climate change decreases stress, herbivory may increase, and vice versa for increasing stress. In addition, our work supports previous suggestions that multiple climate drivers are likely to have dampening effects on biotic interactions due to effects in different directions, though this is context‐dependent.