Potential Distribution and Risk Assessment of an Invasive Plant Species: A Case Study of Hymenachne amplexicaulis in Australia

Given the limited resources available for weed management, a strategic approach is required to give the “best bang for your buck.” The current study incorporates: (1) a model ensemble approach to identify areas of uncertainty and commonality regarding a species invasive potential, (2) current distribution of the invaded species, and (3) connectivity of systems to identify target regions and focus efforts for more effective management. Uncertainty in the prediction of suitable habitat for H. amplexicaulis (study species) in Australia was addressed in an ensemble-forecasting approach to compare distributional scenarios from four models (CLIMATCH; CLIMEX; boosted regression trees [BRT]; maximum entropy [Maxent]). Models were built using subsets of occurrence and environmental data. Catchment risk was determined through incorporating habitat suitability, the current abundance and distribution of H. amplexicaulis, and catchment connectivity. Our results indicate geographic differences between predictions of different approaches. Despite these differences a number of catchments in northern, central, and southern Australia were identified as high risk of invasion or further spread by all models suggesting they should be given priority for the management of H. amplexicaulis. The study also highlighted the utility of ensemble approaches in indentifying areas of uncertainty and commonality regarding the species’ invasive potential.     

Peculiarities of the biology of two Diaphanosoma species (Crustacea,Cladocera) in Rybinsk Reservoir

The spatial distribution, long-term dynamics of occurrence and abundance, and the peculiarities of the seasonal cycle of two cladocerans, an alien species Diaphanosoma orghidani Negrea and a native species D. brachyurum (Liévin), were studied in Rybinsk Reservoir in 2005–2011. The successful coexistence of the species for over a 7-year period was favored by the differences in their seasonal cycles, the distributional pattern in the reservoir, the predator press, and the preference of the alien species to inhabit areas of running water where the native species was not numerous. Competitive advantages of the invader under conditions of global warming are discussed.     

Forecasting Helicoverpa populations in Australia： A comparison of regression based models and a bioclimatic based modelling approach

Abstract Long-term forecasts of pest pressure are central to the effective management of many agricultural insect pests. In the eastern cropping regions of Australia, serious infestations of Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hübner)(Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) are experienced annually. Regression analyses of a long series of light-trap catches of adult moths were used to describe the seasonal dynamics of both species. The size of the spring generation in eastern cropping zones could be related to rainfall in putative source areas in inland Australia. Subsequent generations could be related to the abundance of various crops in agricultural areas, rainfall and the magnitude of the spring population peak. As rainfall figured prominently as a predictor variable, and can itself be predicted using the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trap catches were also related to this variable. The geographic distribution of each species was modelled in relation to climate and CLIMEX was used to predict temporal variation in abundance at given putative source sites in inland Australia using historical meteorological data. These predictions were then correlated with subsequent pest abundance data in a major cropping region. The regression-based and bioclimatic-based approaches to predicting pest abundance are compared and their utility in predicting and interpreting pest dynamics are discussed.     

Climatic requirements of the eastern paralysis tick,Ixodes holocyclus,with a consideration of its possible geographic range up to 2090

The eastern paralysis tick, Ixodes holocyclus, is an ectoparasite of medical and veterinary importance in Australia. The feeding of I. holocyclus is associated with an ascending flaccid paralysis which kills many dogs and cats each year, with the development of mammalian meat allergy in some humans, and with the transmission of Rickettsia australis (Australian scrub typhus) to humans. Although I. holocyclus has been well studied, it is still not known exactly why this tick cannot establish outside of its present geographic distribution. Here, we aim to account for the presence as well as the absence of I. holocyclus in regions of Australia. We modelled the climatic requirements of I. holocyclus with two methods, CLIMEX, and a new envelope-model approach which we name the ‘climatic-range method’. These methods allowed us to account for 93% and 96% of the geographic distribution of I. holocyclus, respectively. Our analyses indicated that the geographic range of I. holocyclus may not only shift south towards Melbourne, but may also expand in the future, depending on which climate-change scenario comes to pass.     

Predicting the spread of Aedes albopictus in Australia under current and future climates: Multiple approaches and datasets to incorporate potential evolutionary divergence

When predicting the potential and future invasive range of a species, there is a growing appreciation that insights about factors limiting distributions can be provided by using multiple modelling approaches and by incorporating information from different parts of a species range. Here we apply this strategy to build on previous CLIMEX models to predict the invasion potential of Aedes albopictus, the Asian tiger mosquito, in mainland Australia. A combination of CLIMEX and MAXENT modelling indicated that the mosquito was expected to become widespread along the eastern seaboard and extend into northern Tasmania, but to remain restricted to the coastal fringe, a pattern which is not expected to shift much under climate change. However, a recent expansion of A. albopictus in North America points to evolutionary changes affecting the distribution of this species; when the North American range is included in models, A. albopictus is predicted to become much more widespread and extend inland and into Western Australia. These patterns highlight the potential impact of evolution on species distributions arising from multiple introductions or in situ evolution. By considering future climate scenarios, we demonstrate that there is likely to be a persistent public health threat associated with invasion by this species.     

Geographic variation in seasonality and its influence on the dynamics of an infectious disease

Seasonal changes in environmental drivers – such as temperature, rainfall, and resource availability – have the potential to shape infection dynamics through their reverberating effects on biological processes including host abundance and susceptibility to infection. However, seasonality varies geographically. We therefore expect marked differences in infection dynamics between regions with different seasonal patterns. By pairing extensive Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) surveillance data – 65 358 individual bird samples from 12 species of dabbling ducks sampled at 174 locations across North America – with quantification of seasonality using remote sensed data indicative for primary productivity (normalised differenced vegetation index, NDVI), we provide evidence that seasonal dynamics influence infection dynamics across a continent. More pronounced epidemics were seen to occur in regions experiencing a higher degree of seasonality, and epidemics of lower amplitude and longer duration occurred in regions with a more protracted and lower seasonal amplitude. These results demonstrate the potential importance of geographic variation in seasonality for explaining geographic variation in the dynamics of infectious diseases in wildlife.     

Predicting the potential invasive range of light brown apple moth (Epiphyas postvittana) using biologically informed and correlative species distribution models

The light brown apple moth (Epiphyas postvittana) is a highly polyphagous species that has invaded several geographic regions across the globe and has stimulated substantial concern over possible impacts for agriculture in the US. We aimed to predict the potential geographic range of E. postvittana to better understand the threat of this species in the US and globally. We used the mechanistic simulation modelling method CLIMEX and the correlative niche modelling method Maxent to predict the geographic distribution of E. postvittana in its native range and globally and tested model projections using known invasion data. Different predictor variable data sets and threshold dependent and independent measures of environmental suitability were considered in model evaluation. Models accurately predicted known invasive localities of E. postvittana across the globe. Overall predictions of environmental suitability were largely congruent across models, although there were some notable differences. Ephiphyas postvittana clearly has the potential to establish in many regions of the globe, although some previous analyses of the potential distribution of this species appear overly pessimistic. Additional studies of the biology of this species in invaded areas, including interactions with natural enemies and the capacity to adapt to novel climatic conditions, are ultimately needed to more fully understand its potential economic and environmental impacts.     

Tingidae for biological control ofLantana camara [Verbenaceae]

The host range, distribution and aspects of the biology ofTingidae recorded from plants in the genusLantana are reviewed. Tingids possess attributes predisposing them for use as biological control agents. Possible benefits from importation of a larger gene pool ofTeleonemia scrupulosa are discussed. The host ranges ofT. elata andLeptobyrsa decora were studied under simulated field conditions. Results indicated that both species are restricted almost entirely toL. camara. SubsequentlyT. scrupolosa, collected from diverse habitats throughout its range,T. elata andL. decora have been liberated in Australia.     

Seasonal detection of three types of “pygmy” blue whale calls in the Indian Ocean

The Indian Ocean is an area in which a rich suite of cetacean fauna, including at least two subspecies of blue whale, is found; yet little information beyond stranding data and short‐term surveys for this species is available. Pygmy blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus spp.) call data are presented that provide novel information on the seasonal and geographic distribution of these animals. Acoustic data were recorded from January 2002 to December 2003 by hydrophones at three stations of the International Monitoring System, including two near the subequatorial Diego Garcia Atoll and a third southwest of Cape Leeuwin, Australia. Automated spectrogram correlation methods were used to scan for call types attributed to pygmy blue whales. Sri Lanka calls were the most common and were detected year‐round off Diego Garcia. Madagascar calls were only recorded on the northern Diego Garcia hydrophone during May and July, whereas Australia calls were only recorded at Cape Leeuwin, between December and June. Differences in geographic and seasonal patterns of these three distinct call types suggest that they may represent separate acoustic populations of pygmy blue whales and that these “acoustic populations” should be considered when assessing conservation needs of blue whales in the Indian Ocean.     

Modeled global invasive potential of Asian gypsy moths, Lymantria dispar

Asian populations of gypsy moths, Lymantria dispar (L.) (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae), remain poorly characterized – indeed, they are not presently accorded any formal taxonomic status within the broader species. Their ecology is similarly largely uncharacterized in the literature, except by assumption that it will resemble that of European populations. We developed ecological niche models specific to Asian populations of the species, which can in turn be used to identify a potential geographic distributional area for the species. We demonstrated statistically significant predictivity of distributional patterns within the East Asian range of these populations; projecting the Asian ecological niche model to Europe, correspondence with European distributions was generally good, although some differences may exist; projecting the ecological niche model globally, we characterized a likely potential invasive distribution of this set of populations across the temperate zone of both Northern and Southern Hemisphere.     

New Genetic and Linguistic Analyses Show Ancient Human Influence on Baobab Evolution and Distribution in Australia

This study investigates the role of human agency in the gene flow and geographical distribution of the Australian baobab, Adansonia gregorii. The genus Adansonia is a charismatic tree endemic to Africa, Madagascar, and northwest Australia that has long been valued by humans for its multiple uses. The distribution of genetic variation in baobabs in Africa has been partially attributed to human-mediated dispersal over millennia, but this relationship has never been investigated for the Australian species. We combined genetic and linguistic data to analyse geographic patterns of gene flow and movement of word-forms for A. gregorii in the Aboriginal languages of northwest Australia. Comprehensive assessment of genetic diversity showed weak geographic structure and high gene flow. Of potential dispersal vectors, humans were identified as most likely to have enabled gene flow across biogeographic barriers in northwest Australia. Genetic-linguistic analysis demonstrated congruence of gene flow patterns and directional movement of Aboriginal loanwords for A. gregorii. These findings, along with previous archaeobotanical evidence from the Late Pleistocene and Holocene, suggest that ancient humans significantly influenced the geographic distribution of Adansonia in northwest Australia.     

Potential impact of climate change on the distribution and conservation status of Pterocarpus marsupium,a Near Threatened South Asian medicinal tree species

Climate change is considered as an important environmental issue globally, affecting geographic distributions of endangered species, and reducing the extent of their natural habitats. We characterized the potential geographic distribution of a Near Threatened tree species, Pterocarpus marsupium, in South Asia. We evaluated the potential geographic distribution of the species under present and future conditions using ecological niche modeling approaches. The future potential distribution of the species was examined under two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), using outputs from 8 general circulation models for 2050. The present-day distribution of the species covers much of India and Sri Lanka, and parts of Nepal and Bhutan. Model transfers for future-climate conditions indicated a potentially dramatic geographic shift of high-suitability areas for parts of the species' distribution, particularly in central India. In distributional areas that are adjacent to high-mountain areas, under climate change, suitable areas for the species are anticipated to shift towards higher elevations. The results of this study may be useful in identifying currently undocumented populations of P. marsupium, as well as in identifying sites likely to be suitable both at present and in the future for conservation management planning.     

Potential Distribution of the Australian Native Chloris truncata Based on Modelling Both the Successful and Failed Global Introductions

Our aim was to model the current and future potential global distribution of Chloris truncata (windmill grass) based on the plant's biology, soil requirements and colonisation success. The growth response of C. truncata to constant temperatures and soil moisture levels were measured and estimated respectively, to develop parameters for a CLIMEX bioclimatic model of potential distribution. The native distribution in eastern Australia and naturalised distribution in Western Australia was also used to inform the model. Associations with soil types were assessed within the suitable bioclimatic region in Australia. The global projection of the model was tested against the distribution of soil types and the known successful and failed global introductions. The verified model was then projected to future conditions due to climate change. Optimal temperature for plant development was 28°C and the plant required 970 degree-days above a threshold of 10°C. Early collection records indicate that the species is native to Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. The plant has been introduced elsewhere in Australia and throughout the world as a wool contaminant and as a potential pasture species, but some of the recorded establishments have failed to persist. The CLIMEX model projected to the world reflected effectively both the successful and failed distributions. The inclusion of soil associations improved the explanation of the observed distribution in Australia, but did not improve the ability to determine the potential distribution elsewhere, due to lack of similarity of soil types between continents. The addition of a climate change projection showed decreased suitability for this species in Australia, but increased suitability for other parts of the world, including regions where the plant previously failed to establish.     

Ecological differentiation among key plant mutualists from a cryptic ant guild

As key dispersers of herbaceous seeds, Aphaenogaster ants strongly influence the distribution of woodland plants in eastern North America. Ants within this genus are difficult to distinguish and often are identified by subgroup, but emerging research suggests they occupy species-specific ecological niches. As such, distinct climatic requirements among Aphaenogaster spp. might result in transient plant interactions with climate change. We examine whether there are ecological and distributional differences among Aphaenogaster species that coincide with current taxonomic differentiations. We use occurrence records for six Aphaenogaster spp. that occur in deciduous forests in eastern North America. We associate the geographic patterning of species occurrence with temperature and precipitation data, and we examine whether unique climatic niches characterize each species. We then predict habitat suitability throughout eastern North America using species distribution models. For verification, we test how well the predicted ranges fit observed occurrences using novel data sets for each species. We find that Aphaenogaster species within this cryptic genus demonstrate unique ecological and geographic signatures. Each species within the subgroup generally responds differently to temperature, and somewhat differently to precipitation and seasonal variance, suggesting unique ecological niches for each species. Our results indicate that each ant species may respond uniquely to changes in climate. Such shifts could disrupt current community associations and biotic interactions with ant-dispersed plants.     

Quantification of climatic niches in birds: adding the temporal dimension

Quantification of the climatic niche from geographic occurrences is an increasingly important tool for studying species’ relationships to their environment, for example to predict responses to climate change. However, as the geographic distributions of birds are seasonally dynamic, they pose a challenge to carrying out comparable and appropriate quantification of climatic niches. In this review, we first assess how relevant seasonal dynamics are across birds as a whole by compiling a database of migratory behaviour for 10 443 bird species. Second, we examine how studies have quantified climatic niches of birds. Finally, using Australia as a case study, we investigate how well existing distribution datasets represent temporal dynamics by comparing seasonal patterns of species richness obtained from point‐occurrence data with those from range maps and assess the consequences for niche quantification. We provide a consistent classification of migratory behaviour across all birds, and find that a huge variety exists between and within species that should be considered when quantifying climatic niches. Despite this, our review of the literature revealed that seasonal dynamics have often not been accounted for. For future studies, we provide a framework for selecting appropriate occurrence data depending on migratory behaviour and data availability. Our comparison of seasonal species richness patterns obtained from extent‐of‐occurrence range maps and point‐occurrence data suggests that range maps are less able to detect temporal dynamics of bird distributions than point‐occurrence data. We conclude that seasonally explicit range maps combined with climatic data for the corresponding time period can be used to adequately quantify climatic niches for resident birds, but are not adequate to quantify the climatic niches of migratory and nomadic species. Therefore, consistent quantification of climatic niches across all birds requires temporally explicit occurrence points. As such, increasing the availability of occurrence data and methods correcting biases should be a priority.     

Effect of herbivory by Teleonemia scrupulosa on the performance of Longitarsus bethae on their shared host,Lantana camara

Herbivory by insects may change the characteristics of nutrients and secondary plant chemicals of the foliage, thereby altering the acceptability and suitability of the plant for oviposition, feeding and development for subsequent herbivores. In the current study, the effect of herbivory by the sap-sucking lace bug, Teleonemia scrupulosa Stäl (Heteroptera: Tingidae), on the suitability of Lantana camara L. (Verbenaceae) for the root-feeding flea beetle, Longitarsus bethae Savini & Escalona (Chrysomelidae: Alticinae), was investigated under laboratory conditions. Preference of adult L. bethae was not influenced by the intensity of feeding damage caused by T. scrupulosa adults. However, high densities of T. scrupulosa nymphs and their feeding damage caused L. bethae adults to emigrate and colonize less infested or uninfested plants. Oviposition by L. bethae was significantly reduced at high densities of T. scrupulosa nymphs. While low infestation of T. scrupulosa had no effect the survival of L. bethae, moderate and high infestations caused significant reduction in percentage survival of L. bethae. The number of T. scrupulosa nymphs was negatively correlated with the percentage survival of L. bethae. Neither the duration of development nor the body size of L. bethae was influenced by the intensity of T. scrupulosa infestation. Overall, undamaged or slightly damaged plants that allowed better survival of L. bethae were often chosen as oviposition sites in preference to those that were highly infested, and on which survival was poor. Although the present study indicates the likelihood of inter-specific competition between L. bethae larvae and T. scrupulosa, this is likely to be mitigated by female flea beetles choosing to oviposit on less infested or uninfested plants in the field.     

The pest status and distribution of three cryptic blue oat mite species (Penthaleus spp.) and redlegged earth mite (Halotydeus destructor) in southeastern Australia

Earth mites are pests of crops and pastures in southeastern Australia.Recent studies show differences between earth mite species in their mode ofreproduction, preferred hosts and pesticide tolerance. This paper examines thedistribution and pest status of each species. The southeastern Australiandistribution for each species is mapped, incorporating new data from easternNewSouth Wales, South Australia and Tasmania. A new population of an undescribedspecies previously identified from northwestern Victoria was found in northernNew South Wales. CLIMEX was used to identify climatic factors limiting thedistribution of P. major and P.falcatus, the most broadly distributed species. This analysissuggests tolerance to heat and desiccation limits the inland distribution ofthese two species. A three-year survey of agricultural outbreaks indicates thatall Penthaleus species are major agricultural pestsalthough their pest status on crop types appears to differ. All speciescontributed to chemical control failures. However P.falcatus, previously identified in laboratory tests as havingincreased tolerance to pesticides, was the most common species associated withcontrol failures. A laboratory experiment indicated that mites are sometimespests on crops on which they cannot persist for a generation. Results arediscussed with respect to management of these agricultural pests.     

Improving Transferability of Introduced Species’ Distribution Models: New Tools to Forecast the Spread of a Highly Invasive Seaweed

The utility of species distribution models for applications in invasion and global change biology is critically dependent on their transferability between regions or points in time, respectively. We introduce two methods that aim to improve the transferability of presence-only models: density-based occurrence thinning and performance-based predictor selection. We evaluate the effect of these methods along with the impact of the choice of model complexity and geographic background on the transferability of a species distribution model between geographic regions. Our multifactorial experiment focuses on the notorious invasive seaweed Caulerpacylindracea (previously Caulerpa racemosa var. cylindracea ) and uses Maxent, a commonly used presence-only modeling technique. We show that model transferability is markedly improved by appropriate predictor selection, with occurrence thinning, model complexity and background choice having relatively minor effects. The data shows that, if available, occurrence records from the native and invaded regions should be combined as this leads to models with high predictive power while reducing the sensitivity to choices made in the modeling process. The inferred distribution model of Caulerpacylindracea shows the potential for this species to further spread along the coasts of Western Europe, western Africa and the south coast of Australia.     

Predicting population dynamics of weed biological control agents: science or gazing into crystal balls?

Abstract  Various factors can influence the population dynamics of phytophages post introduction, of which climate is fundamental. Here we present an approach, using a mechanistic modelling package (CLIMEX), that at least enables one to make predictions of likely dynamics based on climate alone. As biological control programs will have minimal funding for basic work (particularly on population dynamics), we show how predictions can be made using a species geographical distribution, relative abundance across its range, seasonal phenology and laboratory rearing data. Many of these data sets are more likely to be available than long-term population data, and some can be incorporated into the exploratory phase of a biocontrol program. Although models are likely to be more robust the more information is available, useful models can be developed using information on species distribution alone. The fitted model estimates a species average response to climate, and can be used to predict likely geographical distribution if introduced, where the agent is likely to be more abundant (i.e. good locations) and more importantly for interpretation of release success, the likely variation in abundance over time due to intra- and inter-year climate variability. The latter will be useful in predicting both the seasonal and long-term impacts of the potential biocontrol agent on the target weed. We believe this tool may not only aid in the agent selection process, but also in the design of release strategies, and for interpretation of post-introduction dynamics and impacts. More importantly we are making testable predictions. If biological control is to become more of a science making and testing such hypothesis will be a key component.     

Evaluating the invasion risk of longhorn crazy ants (Paratrechina longicornis) in South Korea using spatial distribution model

The longhorn crazy ant (Paratrechina longicornis) is a globally distributed ant species with a high invasion risk, suggesting the need to use species distribution modeling to evaluate its potential distribution. Therefore, this study aimed to predict the potential distribution of longhorn crazy ants in response to climate change by using CLIMEX and Maxent and identifying the climatic factors that influence their habitat. Then, the model outcomes were used to construct an ensemble map to evaluate invasion risk in South Korea. The results indicated that temperature-related variables mainly affect the distribution of the longhorn crazy ant, and the two models showed consensus regions in South America, Africa, Australia, and Southeast Asia. Due to climate change, it was expected that the northern limit would somewhat rise. In South Korea, high-risk areas were predicted to be located along the coasts, but they would expand as a consequence of climate change. Since the invasion of longhorn crazy ants has occurred via commercial trades, a relatively high risk in coastal areas demands a high level of attention. We expect that this study will provide initial insight into selecting areas for longhorn crazy ant quarantine with ensemble species distribution modeling.