Population collapses in introduced non-indigenous crayfish

Invasive species often have instable population dynamics and are known to collapse or oscillate heavily after passing through the initial lag/growth phases. Long-term data-series documenting these fluctuations are however rare. We use long-term (starting in the early 1960s), semi-quantitative data on the invasive signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus), capturing its population development after introduction in 44 Swedish lakes. In total 18 (41 %) of these populations had experienced a collapse. A stepwise discriminant function analysis including 20 different ecological or physicochemical characteristics identified three variables explaining collapses in the following order: stocking year, population age and mean air temperature. Populations stocked in the 1980s were more likely to collapse than populations stocked in the 1970s. Lakes with collapses were located in areas with 0.4 °C higher yearly mean air temperatures than the still viable populations. Collapses also depended on the time phase of the population and started to occur 12 years after stocking and were most frequent in the interval 16–20 years after stocking and after 11–15 years duration of the established phase with harvestable densities. An analysis of prevalence and pathogen load of Aphanomyces astaci was conducted in eight of the studied populations. A. astaci was present in all populations but neither the level of prevalence nor the pathogen load in infested specimens differed significantly between lakes with collapses and lakes without. Our results highlight the potential sensitivity and instability of introduced crayfish. The importance of density-dependence and temperature suggest that both climate variability and/or fisheries can influence these processes.     

Long-term decline of a winter-resident bird community in Puerto Rico

Despite concern expressed two decades ago, there has been little recent discussion about continuing declines of migrant bird populations. Monitoring efforts have been focused almost exclusively on the breeding grounds. We describe the long-term decline of a winter-resident bird population in Guánica Commonwealth Forest, Puerto Rico, one of the last remaining tracts of high-quality tropical dry forests in the Caribbean. The winter bird community has exhibited dramatic declines, with constant-effort mist netting now capturing about one-third as many birds as it did 20 years ago. Population estimates for the three most common species have declined dramatically, even though survival rates have remained constant, and other species are now virtually absent from a site where they once were fairly common. Although explanations for these declines are speculative, particularly because they involve multiple species, we argue that the strength and duration of these declines in well-preserved dry forest within a biosphere reserve should stimulate renewed discussion of migrant population trends and comparison with other recent monitoring activities.     

Analyses of nine years of citizen-based biological control monitoring of Dalmatian toadflax, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Linaria dalmatica</Emphasis> (Plantaginaceae) in Idaho,USA

Dalmatian toadflax has been a target for biological control in North America since the 1960s. The stem-mining weevil Mecinus janthiniformis was first released in Canada and the western United States in the mid-1990s. Since 2007, a citizen-based monitoring program in Idaho, USA has supplemented data collection to help evaluate the impact of M. janthiniformis on Dalmatian toadflax abundance and assess changes in the surrounding plant community. We monitored and analysed trends in toadflax, weevil, and the plant community abundance following weevil releases at the regional and site level (34 sites) across the state of Idaho, USA. Significant declines in toadflax cover and stem density were recorded across the majority of sites. Weevil populations have established at all release sites. The mechanistic model indicated that the population dynamics of toadflax at our sites are negatively affected by M. janthiniformis abundance. When averaged across the region, 15 years after weevil release, Dalmatian toadflax stem density and cover declined by 93 and 84%, respectively. We observed significant declines in toadflax abundance in over 75% of the sites. Changes to the surrounding plant community following weevil releases were less consistent among sites. At the regional scale we found evidence for an overall increase in average cover of native perennial grasses and other exotic weeds (primarily annual grasses and exotic forbs) but a decline in native forbs.     

Fishing,fast growth and climate variability increase the risk of collapse

Species around the world have suffered collapses, and a key question is why some populations are more vulnerable than others. Traditional conservation biology and evidence from terrestrial species suggest that slow-growing populations are most at risk, but interactions between climate variability and harvest dynamics may alter or even reverse this pattern. Here, we test this hypothesis globally. We use boosted regression trees to analyse the influences of harvesting, species traits and climate variability on the risk of collapse (decline below a fixed threshold) across 154 marine fish populations around the world. The most important factor explaining collapses was the magnitude of overfishing, while the duration of overfishing best explained long-term depletion. However, fast growth was the next most important risk factor. Fast-growing populations and those in variable environments were especially sensitive to overfishing, and the risk of collapse was more than tripled for fast-growing when compared with slow-growing species that experienced overfishing. We found little evidence that, in the absence of overfishing, climate variability or fast growth rates alone drove population collapse over the last six decades. Expanding efforts to rapidly adjust harvest pressure to account for climate-driven lows in productivity could help to avoid future collapses, particularly among fast-growing species.     

Assessment of wildlife populations trends in three protected areas in Tanzania from 1991 to 2012

Wildlife populations have been experiencing declines across western, central and eastern Africa. In Tanzania, a national wildlife policy was instituted in 1998 to increase protection of wildlife. We assessed (i) the extent to which large herbivore populations have continued to decline in density and distribution within three representative protected areas (PAs) since the implementation of the wildlife policy; (ii) how consistent rates of decline were among the PAs, and between inside the PAs or land bordering these PAs; and (iii) how similar changes in abundance have been among herbivore species or groupings of species. We used aerial census data from 1991 to 2012 for the Tarangire, Ruaha‐Rungwa and Katavi‐Rukwa PAs for our assessment. Population densities of three of six species or groupings of species dropped by 7.3 ± 3.4% to 11.7 ± 5.8% per year across the three PAs, both inside and outside. Similarly, the extent of the range occupied by these species or groupings in these PAs decreased by 92.3 ± 103.0% to 95.7 ± 102.6% per year. These patterns suggest that the wildlife policy has yet to achieve its aim of reversing the habitat changes and illegal harvests affecting these species.     

Demography of greater prairie-chickens: Regional variation in vital rates,sensitivity values,and population dynamics

Intensification of rangeland management has coincided with population declines among obligate grassland species in the largest remaining tallgrass prairie in North America, although causes of declines remain unknown. We modeled population dynamics and conducted sensitivity analyses from demographic data collected for an obligate grassland bird that is an indicator species for tallgrass prairie, the greater prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus cupido), during a 4-year study in east-central Kansas, USA. We examined components of reproductive effort and success, juvenile survival, and annual adult female survival for 3 populations of prairie-chickens across an ecological gradient of human landscape alteration and land use. We observed regional differences in reproductive performance, survivorship, and population dynamics. All 3 populations of prairie-chickens were projected to decline steeply given observed vital rates, but rates of decline differed across a gradient of landscape alteration, with the greatest declines in fragmented landscapes. Elasticity values, variance-scaled sensitivities, and contribution values from a random-effects life-table response experiment all showed that the finite rate of population change was more sensitive to changes in adult survival than other demographic parameters in our declining populations. The rate of population change was also sensitive to nest survival at the most fragmented and least intensively grazed study site; suggesting that patterns of landscape fragmentation and land use may be affecting the relative influences of underlying vital rates on rates of population growth. Our model results indicate that 1) populations of prairie-chickens in eastern Kansas are unlikely to be viable without gains from immigration, 2) rates of population decline vary among areas under different land management practices, 3) human land-use patterns may affect the relative influences of vital rates on population trajectories, and 4) anthropogenic effects on population demography may influence the regional life-history strategies of a short-lived game bird. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

A plague of waterfleas (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Bythotrephes</Emphasis>): impacts on microcrustacean community structure,seasonal biomass,and secondary production in a large inland-lake complex

The spiny cladoceran (Bythotrephes longimanus) is an invasive, predaceous zooplankter that is expanding from Great Lakes coastal waters into inland lakes within a northern latitudinal band. In a large, Boundary Water lake complex (largely within Voyageurs National Park), we use two comparisons, a 2-year spatial and a 12-year temporal, to quantify seasonal impacts on food webs and biomass, plus a preliminary calculation of secondary production decline. Bythotrephes alters the seasonal biomass pattern by severely depressing microcrustaceans during summer and early fall, when the predator is most abundant. Cladoceran and cyclopoid copepods suffer the most serious population declines, although the resistant cladoceran Holopedium is favored in spatial comparisons. Microcrustacean biomass is reduced 40–60 % and secondary production declines by about 67 %. The microcrustacean community shifts towards calanoid copepods. The decline in secondary production is due both to summer biomass loss and to the longer generation times of calanoid copepods (slower turnover). The Bythotrephes “top-down” perturbation appears to hold across small, intermediate, and large-sized lakes (i.e. appears scale-independent), and is pronounced when Bythotrephes densities reach 20–40 individuals L^?1. Induction tests with small cladocerans (Bosmina) suggest that certain native prey populations do not sense the exotic predator and are “blind-sided”. Failure of prey to deploy defenses could explain the disproportionate community impacts in New World versus Old World lakes.     

Aging exo-enzymes can create temporally shifting,temperature-dependent resource landscapes for microbes

The rate at which catalytic capacity of microbial exo-enzymes degrades post-exudation will influence the time during which return on microbes’ investment in exo-enzyme production can be realized. Further, if exo-enzyme degradation rates vary across exo-enzymes, microbial investment returns may vary by element across time. We quantify how aging of two soil organic matter (SOM)-decaying enzymes (β-D-cellobioside, BGase; and N-acetyl-β-D-glucosaminide, NAGase) influences enzyme-substrate V _max at multiple temperatures (5, 15, 25 °C), and compute how enzyme age influences relative availabilities of C and N. Both BGase and NAGase exhibited similar, exponential declines in catalytic rate with age at 25 °C (0.22 ± 0.02 and 0.36 ± 0.14 d^?1, respectively). At 15 °C, NAGase exhibited exponential declines in catalytic rates with age (0.79 ± 0.31 d^?1), but BGase exhibited no decline. Neither enzyme exhibited a decline in catalytic rate over 72 h at 5 °C. At 15 °C, the amount of C liberated from cellulose and chitin analogues relative to N increased, on average, by more than one order of magnitude. The ratio of C:N liberated from the two substrates remained constant across enzyme age at 25 and 5 °C, but for different reasons: no differences in decay rate across enzymes at 25 °C, and no observed decay at 5 °C. Thus, temperature-dependent decreases of catalytic activity over time may influence microbial resource allocation strategies and rates of SOM decomposition. Because the enzyme decay rates we observed differ considerably from values assumed in most models, such assumptions should be revisited when parameterizing microbial process models.     

Long-term records of coral calcification across the central Great Barrier Reef: assessing the impacts of river runoff and climate change

Calcification rates are reported for 41 long-lived Porites corals from 7 reefs, in an inshore to offshore transect across the central Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Over multi-decadal timescales, corals in the mid-shelf (1947–2008) and outer reef (1952–2004) regions of the GBR exhibit a significant increase in calcification of 10.9 ± 1.1 % (1.4 ± 0.2 % per decade; ±1 SE) and 11.1 ± 3.9 % (2.1 ± 0.8 % per decade), respectively, while inner-shelf (1930–2008), reefs show a decline of 4.6 ± 1.3 % (0.6 ± 0.2 % per decade). This long-term decline in calcification for the inner GBR is attributed to the persistent ongoing effects of high sediment/nutrients loads from wet season river discharges, compounded by the effects of thermal stress, especially during the 1998 bleaching event. For the recent period (1990–2008), our data show recovery from the 1998 bleaching event, with no significant trend in the rates of calcification (1.1 ± 2.0 %) for the inner reefs, while corals from the mid-shelf central GBR show a decline of 3.3 ± 0.9 %. These results are in marked contrast to the extreme reef-wide declines of 14.2 % reported by De’ath et al. (2009) for the period of 1990–2005. The De’ath et al. (2009) results are, however, found to be compromised by the inclusion of incomplete final years, duplicated records, together with a bias toward inshore reefs strongly affected by the 1998 bleaching. Our new findings nevertheless continue to raise concerns, with the inner-shelf reefs continuing to show long-term declines in calcification consistent with increased disturbance from land-based effects. In contrast, the more ‘pristine’ mid- and outer-shelf reefs appear to be undergoing a transition from increasing to decreasing rates of calcification, possibly reflecting the effects of CO₂-driven climate change. Our study highlights the importance of properly undertaken, regular assessments of coral calcification that are representative of the distinctive cross-shelf environments and discriminate between local disturbances and the global impacts of climate change and ocean acidification.     

Influence of population decline, fishing, and spawner variability on the recovery of marine fishes

Based on an analysis of 90 marine fish populations, collapses (the greatest proportional reduction in spawner biomass over 15 years) are predicated typically by dramatic increases in fishing mortality and recoveries are more likely to occur when exploitation is reduced. However, among populations for which fishing mortality declined after collapse, recovery was independent of exploitation rate, even when fishing mortality (F) post-collapse was expressed as a function of each population's maximum growth rate (r). After a period of 15 years, many populations that experienced 15 year declines >60% exhibited little or no recovery, despite considerable reductions in fishing mortality. This suggests that factors other than fishing may be considerably more important to recovery, and fishing less important, than previously thought. Furthermore, among populations for which fishing mortality decreased post-collapse, rate of population decline was a reliable predictor of recovery. With the possible exception of clupeids, variation in marine fish breeding population size was found to differ little from that of other vertebrates, and such variability appears to have no effect on rate of recovery. In addition to providing an empirical framework for the study of population collapse and recovery, the analyses presented here provide a means of assessing the precautionary nature of various population-decline thresholds used to assign extinction risks to marine fish.     

The demography of an increasing insular Eurasian Scops Owl (Otus scops) population in western France

Rapid population declines of many long-distance Afro-Palaearctic migratory bird species are ongoing across Europe but the demographic drivers are often poorly understood, thereby limiting the development of appropriate conservation actions. Using long-term population monitoring (39 years), capture–mark–recapture data and a matrix model, we estimated demographic parameters and the effect of climate variables on adult survival, and modelled the dynamics of an increasing population of Eurasian Scops Owls Otus scops in a landscape with agricultural abandonment in western France. The observed mean annual population growth rate was 1.055 (from 68 to 523 territorial males between 1981 and 2019). Over the study period, clutch size and hatching success were stable, but fledging success and breeding success showed slight negative trends, probably due to density-dependence. Survival varied with age, with an increase during early life and evidence for rapid senescence from 4 years old. Adult survival remained stable and was positively linked to the amount of autumn rainfall in the Sahel and to the winter North Atlantic Oscillation. Survival of younger age-classes made the largest contribution to the variance of the population growth rate, followed by clutch size, fledging success and survival of older birds. Such a long-term population increase in a landscape where intensive agriculture has decreased by 64.6% sheds some new light on the causes of the decline of European Scops Owl and other Afro-Palaearctic bird populations. We infer some of the possible causes of this large-scale decline, in particular food shortage, and discuss conservation measures that could be applicable to reverse this trend.     

Decline in seminal quality in Indian men over the last 37 years

Background

Since the first report of a decline in semen quality in 1974, there have been several reports of similar declines across populations. Despite some scattered reports of declining semen quality in the Indian sub-continent, comprehensive studies analyzing semen quality over the last few decades have not been undertaken. We undertook the present study to investigate the temporal trend in semen parameters in Indian populations over a period of 37 years (1979–2016).

Methods

Publications providing semen analysis details for fertile and infertile men from the Indian sub-continent were collected by a thorough literature search. Semen quality data for 6466 normal fertile or presumptive normal men (from 119 studies/data sets) and 7020 infertile men (from 63 studies/data sets) published between 1979 and 2016 were retrieved. We undertook systematic review and quantitative analysis of mean sperm count, motility, normal morphology and other available parameters. Data were analyzed to estimate semen parameters reference values for Indian men and to assess temporal trends in infertile, fertile and all subjects.

Results

Seminal quality shows a decreasing temporal trend and the decrease is higher in infertile than fertile males. In pooled analysis for all individuals, significant (p?<?0.05 or?<?0.001) declines in sperm concentration and normal morphology are observed; however, isolated analysis for each group shows declines without statistical significance. The mean (± SD) semen volume, sperm concentration, total motility, rapid linear progressive motility, normal sperm morphology and sperm viability for Indian fertile men are 2.88?±?0.77 ml, 81.08?±?29.21 million/ml, 66.37?±?10.95%, 52.64?±?15.78%, 56.68?±?20.23% and 72.63?±?8.31%, respectively, whereas in infertile these are 3.07?±?1.27 ml, 37.94?±?26.41 million/ml, 40.22?±?13.76%, 26.79?±?15.47%, 36.41?±?21.66% and 55.25?±?11.99%, respectively. The mean seminal parameter values were significantly lower (p?<?0.001) in infertile as compared to fertile men, except semen volume.

Conclusions

Semen parameters in Indian men have declined with time and the deterioration is quantitatively higher in the infertile group. The study also provides reference values for semen parameters in Indian men.

     

Contemporary morphological diversification of passerine birds introduced to the Hawaiian archipelago

Species that have been introduced to islands experience novel and strong selection pressures after establishment. There is evidence that exotic species diverge from their native source populations; further, a few studies have demonstrated adaptive divergence across multiple exotic populations of a single species. Exotic birds provide a good study system, as they have been introduced to many locations worldwide, and we often know details concerning the propagule origin, time of introduction, and dynamics of establishment and dispersal within the introduced range. These data make them especially conducive to the examination of contemporary evolution. Island faunas have received intense scrutiny, therefore we have expectations concerning the patterns of diversification for exotic species. We examine six passerine bird species that were introduced to the Hawaiian archipelago less than 150 years ago. We find that five of these show morphological divergence among islands from the time since they were established. We demonstrate that some of this divergence cannot be accounted for by genetic drift, and therefore we must consider adaptive evolution to explain it. We also evaluate evolutionary divergence rates and find that these species are diverging at similar rates to those found in published studies of contemporary evolution in native species.     

How closely do measures of mitochondrial DNA control region diversity reflect recent trajectories of population decline in birds?

Monitoring levels of genetic diversity in wildlife species is important for understanding population status and trajectory. Knowledge of the distribution and level of genetic diversity in a population is essential to inform conservation management, and help alleviate detrimental genetic impacts associated with recent population bottlenecking. Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) markers such as the control region have become a common means of surveying for within-population genetic diversity and detecting signatures of recent population decline. Nevertheless, little attention has been given to examining the mtDNA control region’s sensitivity and performance at detecting instances of population decline. We review genetic studies of bird populations published since 1993 that have used the mtDNA control region and reported haplotype diversity, number of haplotypes and nucleotide diversity as measures of within-population variability. We examined the extent to which these measures reflect differences in known demographic parameters such as current population size, severity of any recent bottleneck and IUCN Red List status. Overall, significant relationships were observed between two measures of genetic diversity (haplotype diversity and the number of haplotypes), and population size across a number of comparisons. Both measures gave a more accurate reflection of recent population history in comparison to nucleotide diversity, for which no significant associations were found. Importantly, levels of diversity only correlated with demographic declines where population sizes were known to have fallen below 500 individuals. This finding suggests that measures of mtDNA control region diversity should be used with a degree of caution when inferring demographic history, particularly bottleneck events at population sizes above N = 500.     

Agricultural intensification and farmland birds: new insights from a central European country

The relationship between agricultural intensification and a decline in farmland bird populations is well documented in Europe, but the results are mostly based on data from the western part of the continent. In the former socialist eastern and central European countries, political changes around 1990 resulted in a steep decline in the intensity of agriculture. Therefore, one would expect populations of farmland birds to have recovered under these conditions of lower agricultural intensity. We explored population trends of 19 farmland bird species in the Czech Republic between 1982 and 2003 using data from a large‐scale monitoring scheme, and, additionally, we looked for relationships between such population changes and a number of variables describing the temporal development of Czech agriculture. Most farmland species declined during the focal period, and this decline was steepest in farmland specialists (Northern Lapwing Vanellus vanellus, Skylark Alauda arvensis, Linnet Carduelis cannabina and Yellowhammer Emberiza citrinella). Although the intensity of agriculture was lower after than before 1990, the overall decline continued in most farmland bird species, albeit at a slower rate. The correlations between agricultural intensity and farmland bird decline showed opposite patterns to that found in other European studies, because bird populations were highest in years with the most intensive agriculture. We speculate that this pattern could have resulted from the impact of different driving forces causing farmland bird decline in different periods. The high intensity of agriculture could have caused the decline of the originally abundant populations before 1990. After 1990, the decreasing area of arable land could be the most important factor resulting in the continued decline of farmland bird populations. Our results demonstrate that the drivers of farmland bird population changes could differ across Europe, and thus investigations into the effect of farmland management in different parts of the continent are urgently required.     

Causes of exotic bird establishment across oceanic islands

The probability that exotic species will successfully establish viable populations varies between regions, for reasons that are currently unknown. Here, we use data for exotic bird introductions to 41 oceanic islands and archipelagos around the globe to test five hypotheses for this variation: the effects of introduction effort, competition, predation, human disturbance and habitat diversity (island biogeography). Our analyses demonstrate the primary importance of introduction effort for avian establishment success across regions, in concordance with previous analyses within regions. However, they also reveal a strong negative interaction across regions between establishment success and predation; exotic birds are more likely to fail on islands with species-rich mammalian predator assemblages.     

Rapid evolution of great kiskadees on Bermuda: an assessment of the ability of the island rule to predict the direction of contemporary evolution in exotic vertebrates

Aim To determine whether an exotic bird species, the great kiskadee (Pitangus sulphuratus), has diverged in morphology from its native source population, and, if so, has done so in a manner predicted by the island rule. The island rule predicts that insular vertebrates will tend towards dwarfism or gigantism when isolated on islands, depending on their body size. For birds, the island rule predicts that species with body sizes below 70–120 g should increase in size. The great kiskadee has a mean mass of c. 60 g in its native range, therefore we predicted that it would increase in size within the exotic, and more insular, Bermudan range. Location The islands of Bermuda (exotic population) and Trinidad (native source population). Methods We took eight morphological measurements on 84 individuals captured in the exotic (Bermudan) population and 62 individuals captured in the native source (Trinidadian) population. We compared morphological metrics between populations using univariate and principal components analyses. We assessed whether the effects of genetic drift could explain observed differences in morphology. We calculated divergence rates in haldanes and darwins for comparison with published examples of contemporary evolution. Finally, we used mark–recapture analysis to determine the effects of the measured morphological characters on survivorship within the exotic Bermudan population. Results Individuals in the exotic Bermudan population have larger morphological dimensions than individuals in the native source population on Trinidad. The degree of divergence in body mass (g) and bill width (mm) is probably not due to genetic drift. This rate of divergence is nearly equal to that observed amongst well‐documented examples of contemporary bird evolution, and is within the mid‐range of rates reported across taxa. There is no clear effect of body size on survivorship as only one character (bill width) was found to have an influence on individual survivorship. Main conclusions Exotic species provide useful systems for examining evolutionary predictions over contemporary time‐scales. We found that divergence between the exotic and native populations of this bird species occurred over c. 17 generations, and was in the direction predicted by the island rule, a principle based on the study of native species.     

Population declines of tuna and relatives depend on their speed of life

Larger-bodied species in a wide range of taxonomic groups including mammals, fishes and birds tend to decline more steeply and are at greater risk of extinction. Yet, the diversity in life histories is governed not only by body size, but also by time-related traits. A key question is whether this size-dependency of vulnerability also holds, not just locally, but globally across a wider range of environments. We test the relative importance of size- and time-related life-history traits and fishing mortality in determining population declines and current exploitation status in tunas and their relatives. We use high-quality datasets of half a century of population trajectories combined with population-level fishing mortalities and life-history traits. Time-related traits (e.g. growth rate), rather than size-related traits (e.g. maximum size), better explain the extent and rate of declines and current exploitation status across tuna assemblages, after controlling for fishing mortality. Consequently, there is strong geographical patterning in population declines, such that populations with slower life histories (found at higher cooler latitudes) have declined most and more steeply and have a higher probability of being overfished than populations with faster life histories (found at tropical latitudes). Hence, the strong, temperature-driven, latitudinal gradients in life-history traits may underlie the global patterning of population declines, fisheries collapses and local extinctions.     

Diversity Waves in Collapse-Driven Population Dynamics

Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe reduction in size of the population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g. by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is characterized by cyclic ‘‘diversity waves’’ triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances have bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak - species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies.     

Winter rainfall predicts phenology in widely separated populations of a migrant songbird

Climate change is affecting behaviour and phenology in many animals. In migratory birds, weather patterns both at breeding and at non-breeding sites can influence the timing of spring migration and breeding. However, variation in responses to weather across a species range has rarely been studied, particularly among populations that may winter in different locations. We used prior knowledge of migratory connectivity to test the influence of weather from predicted non-breeding sites on bird phenology in two breeding populations of a long-distance migratory bird species separated by 3,000 km. We found that winter rainfall showed similar associations with arrival and egg-laying dates in separate breeding populations on an east–west axis: greater rainfall in Jamaica and eastern Mexico was generally associated with advanced American redstart (Setophaga ruticilla) phenology in Ontario and Alberta, respectively. In Ontario, these patterns of response could largely be explained by changes in the behaviour of individual birds, i.e., phenotypic plasticity. By explicitly incorporating migratory connectivity into responses to climate, our data suggest that widely separated breeding populations can show independent and geographically specific associations with changing weather conditions. The tendency of individuals to delay migration and breeding following dry winters could result in population declines due to predicted drying trends in tropical areas and the tight linkage between early arrival/breeding and reproductive success in long-distance migrants.