QUANTIFYING VARIATION IN SPECIATION AND EXTINCTION RATES WITH CLADE DATA

High‐level phylogenies are very common in evolutionary analyses, although they are often treated as incomplete data. Here, we provide statistical tools to analyze what we name “clade data,” which are the ages of clades together with their numbers of species. We develop a general approach for the statistical modeling of variation in speciation and extinction rates, including temporal variation, unknown variation, and linear and nonlinear modeling. We show how this approach can be generalized to a wide range of situations, including testing the effects of life‐history traits and environmental variables on diversification rates. We report the results of an extensive simulation study to assess the performance of some statistical tests presented here as well as of the estimators of speciation and extinction rates. These latter results suggest the possibility to estimate correctly extinction rate in the absence of fossils. An example with data on fish is presented.     

Geographic range size, life history and rates of diversification in Australian mammals

Abstract What causes species richness to vary among different groups of organisms? Two hypotheses are that large geographical ranges and fast life history either reduce extinction rates or raise speciation rates, elevating a clade's rate of diversification. Here we present a comparative analysis of these hypotheses using data on the phylogenetic relationships, geographical ranges and life history of the terrestrial mammal fauna of Australia. By comparing species richness patterns to null models, we show that species are distributed nonrandomly among genera. Using sister‐clade comparisons to control for clade age, we then find that faster diversification is significantly associated with larger geographical ranges and larger litters, but there is no evidence for an effect of body size or age at first breeding on diversification rates. We believe the most likely explanation for these patterns is that larger litters and geographical ranges increase diversification rates because they buffer species from extinction. We also discuss the possibility that positive effects of litter size and range size on diversification rates result from elevated speciation rates.     

Ecological and Ecomorphological Specialization Are Not Associated with Diversification Rates in Muroid Rodents (Rodentia: Muroidea)

Multiple diversification rate shifts explain uneven clade richness in muroid rodents. Previous muroid studies have shown that extrinsic factors, notwithstanding ecological opportunity, are poor predictors of clade diversity. Here, we use a 297-muroid species chronogram that is sampled proportional to total clade diversity, along with various trait-dependent diversification approaches to investigate the association between diversification rates with intrinsic attributes—diet, habitat, body mass, and relative tail length. We found some association between both dietary specialization and body mass, as well as between habitat specialization with relative tail lengths using phylogenetic analyses of variance. However, there was no significant association between diversification rates with the evolution of these traits in muroid rodents. We also show that several of the state-dependent diversification approaches are highly susceptible to Type I error—a result that is in accordance with recent criticisms of these methods. Finally, we discuss several potential causes for the lack of association between the examined trait data with diversification rates, ranging from methodological biases (e.g. method conservativism) to biology (e.g. behavioral plasticity and ecological opportunism of muroid rodents).     

FiSSE: A simple nonparametric test for the effects of a binary character on lineage diversification rates

It is widely assumed that phenotypic traits can influence rates of speciation and extinction, and several statistical approaches have been used to test for correlations between character states and lineage diversification. Recent work suggests that model‐based tests of state‐dependent speciation and extinction are sensitive to model inadequacy and phylogenetic pseudoreplication. We describe a simple nonparametric statistical test (“FiSSE”) to assess the effects of a binary character on lineage diversification rates. The method involves computing a test statistic that compares the distributions of branch lengths for lineages with and without a character state of interest. The value of the test statistic is compared to a null distribution generated by simulating character histories on the observed phylogeny. Our tests show that FiSSE can reliably infer trait‐dependent speciation on phylogenies of several hundred tips. The method has low power to detect trait‐dependent extinction but can infer state‐dependent differences in speciation even when net diversification rates are constant. We assemble a range of macroevolutionary scenarios that are problematic for likelihood‐based methods, and we find that FiSSE does not show similarly elevated false positive rates. We suggest that nonparametric statistical approaches, such as FiSSE, provide an important complement to formal process‐based models for trait‐dependent diversification.     

Sexual dimorphism and adaptive speciation: two sides of the same ecological coin

Models of adaptive speciation are typically concerned with demonstrating that it is possible for ecologically driven disruptive selection to lead to the evolution of assortative mating and hence speciation. However, disruptive selection could also lead to other forms of evolutionary diversification, including ecological sexual dimorphisms. Using a model of frequency-dependent intraspecific competition, we show analytically that adaptive speciation and dimorphism require identical ecological conditions. Numerical simulations of individual-based models show that a single ecological model can produce either evolutionary outcome, depending on the genetic independence of male and female traits and the potential strength of assortative mating. Speciation is inhibited when the genetic basis of male and female ecological traits allows the sexes to diverge substantially. This is because sexual dimorphism, which can evolve quickly, can eliminate the frequency-dependent disruptive selection that would have provided the impetus for speciation. Conversely, populations with strong assortative mating based on ecological traits are less likely to evolve a sexual dimorphism because females cannot simultaneously prefer males more similar to themselves while still allowing the males to diverge. This conflict between speciation and dimorphism can be circumvented in two ways. First, we find a novel form of speciation via negative assortative mating, leading to two dimorphic daughter species. Second, if assortative mating is based on a neutral marker trait, trophic dimorphism and speciation by positive assortative mating can occur simultaneously. We conclude that while adaptive speciation and ecological sexual dimorphism may occur simultaneously, allowing for sexual dimorphism restricts the likelihood of adaptive speciation. Thus, it is important to recognize that disruptive selection due to frequency-dependent interactions can lead to more than one form of adaptive splitting.     

Primate extinction risk and historical patterns of speciation and extinction in relation to body mass

Body mass is thought to influence diversification rates, but previous studies have produced ambiguous results. We investigated patterns of diversification across 100 trees obtained from a new Bayesian inference of primate phylogeny that sampled trees in proportion to their posterior probabilities. First, we used simulations to assess the validity of previous studies that used linear models to investigate the links between IUCN Red List status and body mass. These analyses support the use of linear models for ordinal ranked data on threat status, and phylogenetic generalized linear models revealed a significant positive correlation between current extinction risk and body mass across our tree block. We then investigated historical patterns of speciation and extinction rates using a recently developed maximum-likelihood method. Specifically, we predicted that body mass correlates positively with extinction rate because larger bodied organisms reproduce more slowly, and body mass correlates negatively with speciation rate because smaller bodied organisms are better able to partition niche space. We failed to find evidence that extinction rates covary with body mass across primate phylogeny. Similarly, the speciation rate was generally unrelated to body mass, except in some tests that indicated an increase in the speciation rate with increasing body mass. Importantly, we discovered that our data violated a key assumption of sample randomness with respect to body mass. After correcting for this bias, we found no association between diversification rates and mass.     

Primary controls on species richness in higher taxa

The disparity in species richness across the tree of life is one of the most striking and pervasive features of biological diversity. Some groups are exceptionally diverse, whereas many other groups are species poor. Differences in diversity among groups are frequently assumed to result from primary control by differential rates of net diversification. However, a major alternative explanation is that ecological and other factors exert primary control on clade diversity, such that apparent variation in net diversification rates is a secondary consequence of ecological limits on clade growth. Here, I consider a likelihood framework for distinguishing between these competing hypotheses. I incorporate hierarchical modeling to explicitly relax assumptions about the constancy of diversification rates across clades, and I propose several statistics for a posteriori evaluation of model adequacy. I apply the framework to a recent dated phylogeny of ants. My results reject the hypothesis that net diversification rates exert primary control on species richness in this group and demonstrate that clade diversity is better explained by total time-integrated speciation. These results further suggest that it may not possible to estimate meaningful speciation and extinction rates from higher-level phylogenies of extant taxa only.     

A conceptual and statistical framework for adaptive radiations with a key role for diversity dependence

Abstract In this article we propose a new framework for studying adaptive radiations in the context of diversity-dependent diversification. Diversity dependence causes diversification to decelerate at the end of an adaptive radiation but also plays a key role in the initial pulse of diversification. In particular, key innovations (which in our definition include novel traits as well as new environments) may cause decoupling of the diversity-dependent dynamics of the innovative clade from the diversity-dependent dynamics of its ancestral clade. We present a likelihood-based inference method to test for decoupling of diversity dependence using molecular phylogenies. The method, which can handle incomplete phylogenies, identifies when the decoupling took place and which diversification parameters are affected. We illustrate our approach by applying it to the molecular phylogeny of the North American clade of the legume tribe Psoraleeae (47 extant species, of which 4 are missing). Two diversification rate shifts were previously identified for this clade; our analysis shows that the first, positive shift can be associated with decoupling of two Pediomelum subgenera from the other Psoraleeae lineages, while we argue that the second, negative shift can be attributed to speciation being protracted. The latter explanation yields nonzero extinction rates, in contrast to previous findings. Our framework offers a new perspective on macroevolution: new environments and novel traits (ecological opportunity) and diversity dependence (ecological limits) cannot be considered separately.     

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SPECIES CO-OCCURRENCE AND RATE OF MORPHOLOGICAL CHANGE IN PERCINA DARTERS (PERCIDAE: ETHEOSTOMATINAE)

When the morphological diversity of a clade of species is quantified as the among-species variance in morphology, that diversity is a joint consequence of the phylogenetic structure of the clade (i.e., temporal pattern of speciation events) and the rates of change in the morphological traits of interest. Extrinsic factors have previously been linked to variation in the rate of morphological change among clades. Here, we ask whether species co-occurrence is positively correlated with the rate of change in several ecologically relevant morphological characters using the North American freshwater fish clade Percina (Teleostei: Etheostomatinae). We constructed a time-calibrated phylogenetic tree of Percina from mtDNA sequence data, gathered data on eight morphological characters from 37 species, used a principal components analysis to identify the primary axes of morphological variation, and analyzed 16,094 collection records to estimate species co-occurrence. We then calculated standardized independent contrasts (SIC) of the morphological traits (rate of change) at each node, estimated ancestral species co-occurrence, and quantified the correlation between species co-occurrence and rate of morphological change. We find that morphology changes more quickly when co-occurrence is greater in Percina . Our results provide strong evidence that co-occurrence among close relatives is linked to the morphological diversification of this clade.     

How traits shape trees: new approaches for detecting character state‐dependent lineage diversification

Biologists have long sought to understand the processes underlying disparities in clade size across the tree of life and the extent to which such clade size differences can be attributed to the evolution of particular traits. The association of certain character states with species‐rich clades suggests that trait evolution can lead to increased diversification, but such a pattern could also arise due other processes, such as directional trait evolution. Recent advances in phylogenetic comparative methods have provided new statistical approaches for distinguishing between these intertwined and potentially confounded macroevolutionary processes. Here, we review the historical development of methods for detecting state‐dependent diversification and explore what new methods have revealed about classic examples of traits that affect diversification, including evolutionary dead ends, key innovations and geographic traits. Applications of these methods thus far collectively suggest that trait diversity commonly arises through the complex interplay between transition, speciation and extinction rates and that long hypothesized evolutionary dead ends and key innovations are instead often cases of directional trends in trait evolution.     

Divergent patterns of diversification in courtship and genitalic characters of Timema walking‐sticks

Understanding the patterns of diversification in sexual traits and the selection underlying such diversification represents a major unresolved question in evolutionary biology. We examined the phylogenetic diversification for courtship and external genitalic characters across ten species of Timema walking‐sticks, to infer the tempos and modes of character change in these sexual traits and to draw inferences regarding the selective pressures underlying speciation and diversification in this clade. Rates of inferred change in male courtship behaviours were proportional to speciation events, but male external genitalic structures showed a pattern of continuous change across evolutionary time, with divergence proportional to branch lengths. These findings suggest that diversification of courtship behaviour is mediated by processes that occur in association with speciation, whereas diversification of genitalia occurs more or less continuously, most likely driven by forces of sexual selection.     

Rapid cladogenesis in marine fishes revisited

Lineages that underwent rapid cladogenesis are attractive systems for the study of mechanisms underlying taxonomic, ecological, morphological, and behavioral diversification. Recently developed statistical methods provide insights into historical patterns of diversity and allow distinguishing bursts of cladogenesis from stochastic background rates in the presence of confounding factors such as extinction and incomplete taxon sampling. Here, we compare the dynamics of speciation in several marine fish lineages some of which were previously proposed to have undergone significant changes of cladogenesis through time. We tested for evidence of episodes of rapid cladogenesis using the constant rate and Monte Carlo constant rate tests that are robust to incomplete taxon sampling. These tests employ the statistic gamma to measure the relative position of internal node in a chronogram. For the first time, we conducted a comparative analysis to address the behavior of the statistic under different chronogram-constructing methods (Langley-Fitch, nonparametric rate smoothing, and penalized likelihood). Although estimates of gamma sometimes differ widely among methods, acceptance or rejection of the constant rate model within a particular clade appears to be robust to the choice of method. Bursts of cladogenesis were detected in 14 of 34 studied datasets. Some of these were previously proposed to represent marine fish "radiations," whereas others are identified anew. Our results indicate that the wider application of tree shape methods that are able to detect significantly elevated rates of speciation is useful to more precisely define clades that underwent episodes of rapid cladogenesis in marine fish clades. Contrasting the patterns of phylogenetic diversification in marine fish lineages may facilitate the identification of common evolutionary trajectories versus idiosyncrasies, and ultimately help towards a better understanding of the factors and processes underlying speciation in the marine realm.     

Linking the investigations of character evolution and species diversification

Variation in diversification rates is often studied by investigating traits related to species' ecology and life history. Often, however, it is unknown whether these traits evolve gradually or in punctuated bursts during speciation. Using phylogenetic data and species' present-day trait information, we present a novel approach to assessing the mode of character change while accounting for trait-dependent speciation and extinction. Our model, "Binary-State Speciation and Extinction-node enhanced state shift" (BiSSE-ness), estimates both the rate of change occurring along lineages and the probability of change occurring during speciation, as well as independent speciation and extinction rates for each character state. Using simulations, we found that BiSSE-ness is able to distinguish along-lineage and speciational change and accurately estimate the parameters associated with character change and diversification rates. We applied BiSSE-ness to an empirical primate data set and found evidence for along-lineage changes in primate mating systems and social behaviors, whereas shifts in habitat were associated with speciation. In cases where trait changes may be linked to the speciation process itself (e.g., niche-related traits), BiSSE-ness provides a suitable framework with which to simultaneously address questions regarding species diversification and character change.     

Interspecific geographic range size–body size relationship and the diversification dynamics of Neotropical furnariid birds

Among the earliest macroecological patterns documented, is the range and body size relationship, characterized by a minimum geographic range size imposed by the species’ body size. This boundary for the geographic range size increases linearly with body size and has been proposed to have implications in lineages evolution and conservation. Nevertheless, the macroevolutionary processes involved in the origin of this boundary and its consequences on lineage diversification have been poorly explored. We evaluate the macroevolutionary consequences of the difference (hereafter the distance) between the observed and the minimum range sizes required by the species’ body size, to untangle its role on the diversification of a Neotropical species‐rich bird clade using trait‐dependent diversification models. We show that speciation rate is a positive hump‐shaped function of the distance to the lower boundary. The species with highest and lowest distances to minimum range size had lower speciation rates, while species close to medium distances values had the highest speciation rates. Further, our results suggest that the distance to the minimum range size is a macroevolutionary constraint that affects the diversification process responsible for the origin of this macroecological pattern in a more complex way than previously envisioned.     

Biotic and abiotic factors driving the diversification dynamics of Crocodylia

Species diversity patterns are governed by complex interactions among biotic and abiotic factors over time and space, but are essentially the result of the diversification dynamics (differential speciation and extinction rates) over the long-term evolutionary history of a clade. Previous studies have suggested that temporal variation in global temperature drove long-term diversity changes in Crocodylia, a monophyletic group of large ectothermic organisms. We use a large database of crocodylian fossil occurrences (192 spp.) and body mass estimations, under a taxic approach, to characterize the global diversification dynamics of crocodylians since the Cretaceous, and their correlation with multiple biotic and abiotic factors in a Bayesian framework. The diversification dynamic of crocodylians, which appears to have originated in the Turonian (c. 92.5 Ma), is characterized by several phases with high extinction and speciation rates within a predominantly low long-term mean rate. Our results reveal long-term diversification dynamics of Crocodylia to be a highly complex process driven by a combination of biotic and abiotic factors which influenced the speciation and extinction rates in dissimilar ways. Higher crocodylian extinction rates are related to low body mass disparity, indicating selective extinctions of taxa at both ends of the body mass spectrum. Speciation rate slowdowns are noted when the diversity of the clade is high and the warm temperate climatic belt is reduced. Our finding supports the idea that temporal variations of body mass disparity, self-diversity, and the warm climate belt size provided more direct mechanistic explanations for crocodylian diversification than do proxies of global temperature.     

Diversification rates in a temperate legume clade: Are there “so many species” of Astragalus (Fabaceae)?

Astragalus, the largest genus of flowering plants, contains upwards of 2500 species. Explanations for this exceptional species diversity have pointed to unusual population structure or modes of speciation. Surprisingly, however, three different statistical analyses indicate that diversification rates in Astragalus are not exceptionally high compared to its closest relatives. Instead, rates are high throughout the “Astragalean clade,” a much broader radiation distributed throughout the temperate zone. The increase in diversification rate is associated with the origin and divergence of this clade from common ancestors of it and several much less diverse and more narrowly distributed Asian genera. This suggests that causal factors in the shift toward higher rates of diversification must be due not to factors unique to Astragalus, but to characteristics common to the entire Astragalean clade. However, this larger clade has never been circumscribed in classifications based on morphological data. This raises the possibility that the causes of increased diversification may not be due to morphological innovation, but may instead be related to ecological factors or cryptic physiological or biochemical features.     

Quantitative traits and diversification

Quantitative traits have long been hypothesized to affect speciation and extinction rates. For example, smaller body size or increased specialization may be associated with increased rates of diversification. Here, I present a phylogenetic likelihood-based method (quantitative state speciation and extinction [QuaSSE]) that can be used to test such hypotheses using extant character distributions. This approach assumes that diversification follows a birth-death process where speciation and extinction rates may vary with one or more traits that evolve under a diffusion model. Speciation and extinction rates may be arbitrary functions of the character state, allowing much flexibility in testing models of trait-dependent diversification. I test the approach using simulated phylogenies and show that a known relationship between speciation and a quantitative character could be recovered in up to 80% of the cases on large trees (500 species). Consistent with other approaches, detecting shifts in diversification due to differences in extinction rates was harder than when due to differences in speciation rates. Finally, I demonstrate the application of QuaSSE to investigate the correlation between body size and diversification in primates, concluding that clade-specific differences in diversification may be more important than size-dependent diversification in shaping the patterns of diversity within this group.     

Rapid allopatric speciation in logperch darters (Percidae: Percina)

Theory predicts that clades diversifying via sympatric speciation will exhibit high diversification rates. However, the expected rate of diversification in clades characterized by allopatric speciation is less clear. Previous studies have documented significantly higher speciation rates in freshwater fish clades diversifying via sympatric versus allopatric modes, leading to suggestions that the geographic pattern of speciation can be inferred solely from knowledge of the diversification rate. We tested this prediction using an example from darters, a clade of approximately 200 species of freshwater fishes endemic to eastern North America. A resolved phylogeny was generated using mitochondrial DNA gene sequences for logperches, a monophyletic group of darters composed of 10 recognized species. Divergence times among logperch species were estimated using a fossil calibrated molecular clock in centrarchid fishes, and diversification rates in logperches were estimated using several methods. Speciation events in logperches are recent, extending from 4.20 +/- 1.06 million years ago (mya) to 0.42 +/- 0.22 mya, with most speciation events occurring in the Pleistocene. Diversification rates are high in logperches, at some nodes exceeding rates reported for well-studied adaptive radiations such as Hawaiian silverswords. The geographic pattern of speciation in logperches was investigated by examining the relationship between degree of sympatry and the absolute age of the contrast, with the result that diversification in logperches appears allopatric. The very high diversification rate observed in the logperch phylogeny is more similar to freshwater fish clades thought to represent examples of sympatric speciation than to clades representing allopatric speciation. These results demonstrate that the geographic mode of speciation for a clade cannot be inferred from the diversification rate. The empirical observation of high diversification rates in logperches demonstrates that allopatric speciation can occur rapidly.     

Speciation dynamics during the global radiation of extant bats

Species richness varies widely across extant clades, but the causes of this variation remain poorly understood. We investigate the role of diversification rate heterogeneity in shaping patterns of diversity across families of extant bats. To provide a robust framework for macroevolutionary inference, we assemble a time‐calibrated, species‐level phylogeny using a supermatrix of mitochondrial and nuclear sequence data. We analyze the phylogeny using a Bayesian method for modeling complex evolutionary dynamics. Surprisingly, we find that variation in family richness can largely be explained without invoking heterogeneous diversification dynamics. We document only a single well‐supported shift in diversification dynamics across bats, occurring at the base of the subfamily Stenodermatinae. Bat diversity is phylogenetically imbalanced, but—contrary to previous hypotheses—this pattern is unexplained by any simple patterns of diversification rate heterogeneity. This discordance may indicate that diversification dynamics are more complex than can be captured using the statistical tools available for modeling data at this scale. We infer that bats as a whole are almost entirely united into one macroevolutionary cohort, with decelerating speciation through time. There is also a significant relationship between clade age and richness, suggesting that global bat diversity may still be expanding.