Playing smart vs. playing safe: the joint expression of phenotypic plasticity and potential bet hedging across and within thermal environments

Adaptive phenotypic plasticity evolves when cues reliably predict fitness consequences of life‐history decisions, whereas bet hedging evolves when environments are unpredictable. These modes of response should be jointly expressed, because environmental variance is composed of both predictable and unpredictable components. However, little attention has been paid to the joint expression of plasticity and bet hedging. Here, I examine the simultaneous expression of plasticity in germination rate and two potential bet‐hedging traits – germination fraction and within‐season diversification in timing of germination – in seeds from multiple seed families of five geographically distant populations of Lobelia inflata (L.) subjected to a thermal gradient. Populations differ in germination plasticity to temperature, in total germination fraction and in the expression of potential diversification in the timing of germination. The observation of a negative partial correlation between the expression of plasticity and germination variance (potential diversification), and a positive correlation between plasticity and germination fraction is suggestive of a trade‐off between modes of response to environmental variance. If the observed correlations are indicative of those between adaptive plasticity and bet hedging, we expect an optimal balance to exist and differ among populations. I discuss the challenges involved in testing whether the balance between plasticity and bet hedging depends on the relative predictability of environmental variance.     

Variation in developmental rates is not linked to environmental unpredictability in annual killifishes

Comparative evidence suggests that adaptive plasticity may evolve as a response to predictable environmental variation. However, less attention has been placed on unpredictable environmental variation, which is considered to affect evolutionary trajectories by increasing phenotypic variation (or bet hedging). Here, we examine the occurrence of bet hedging in egg developmental rates in seven species of annual killifish that originate from a gradient of variation in precipitation rates, under three treatment incubation temperatures (21, 23, and 25°C). In the wild, these species survive regular and seasonal habitat desiccation, as dormant eggs buried in the soil. At the onset of the rainy season, embryos must be sufficiently developed in order to hatch and complete their life cycle. We found substantial differences among species in both the mean and variation of egg development rates, as well as species‐specific plastic responses to incubation temperature. Yet, there was no clear relationship between variation in egg development time and variation in precipitation rate (environmental predictability). The exact cause of these differences therefore remains enigmatic, possibly depending on differences in other natural environmental conditions in addition to precipitation predictability. Hence, if species‐specific variances are adaptive, the relationship between development and variation in precipitation is complex and does not diverge in accordance with simple linear relationships.     

Early and late developmental arrest as complementary embryonic bet‐hedging strategies in African killifish

The production of dormant eggs is a crucial adaptation for African killifish of the genus Nothobranchius to survive in temporary waters. These habitats are often characterized by unpredictable variation in the suitability of growing seasons as a result of variable lengths of inundations and temporary colonization by piscivorous fish. Incomplete hatching could enable killifish to buffer against reproductive failure during unsuitable inundations. Although this phenomenon has been tentatively linked to variation in dormancy states, it has never been investigated under controlled conditions and its viability as a bet hedging strategy to distribute offspring over several inundations remains unclear. In the present study, we used common garden experiments to assess the contribution of environmental modulation and bet hedging to delayed hatching in Nothobranchius killifish by testing the feasibility of arrested development in the presence and absence of environmental cues. Overall, the results confirmed that the presence of cues signalling a threat (predator kairomones) inhibited hatching. However, delayed development also occurred independent of cues and was regulated at two stages. Developmental arrest in energy‐efficient dormancy stages could present a means for long‐term bet hedging over years, whereas arrest in the energy‐consuming final stage may serve a similar purpose over shorter time scales. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2015, 114 , 941–948.     

Convergent evolution of alternative developmental trajectories associated with diapause in African and South American killifish

Annual killifish adapted to life in seasonally ephemeral water-bodies exhibit desiccation resistant eggs that can undergo diapause, a period of developmental arrest, enabling them to traverse the otherwise inhospitable dry season. Environmental cues that potentially indicate the season can govern whether eggs enter a stage of diapause mid-way through development or skip this diapause and instead undergo direct development. We report, based on construction of a supermatrix phylogenetic tree of the order Cyprinodontiformes and a battery of comparative analyses, that the ability to produce diapause eggs evolved independently at least six times within African and South American killifish. We then show in species representative of these lineages that embryos entering diapause display significant reduction in development of the cranial region and circulatory system relative to direct-developing embryos. This divergence along alternative developmental pathways begins mid-way through development, well before diapause is entered, during a period of purported maximum developmental constraint (the phylotypic period). Finally, we show that entering diapause is accompanied by a dramatic reduction in metabolic rate and concomitant increase in long-term embryo survival. Morphological divergence during the phylotypic period thus allows embryos undergoing diapause to conserve energy by shunting resources away from energetically costly organs thereby increasing survival chances in an environment that necessitates remaining dormant, buried in the soil and surrounded by an eggshell for much of the year. Our results indicate that adaptation to seasonal aquatic environments in annual killifish imposes strong selection during the embryo stage leading to marked diversification during this otherwise conserved period of vertebrate development.     

Short‐term insurance versus long‐term bet‐hedging strategies as adaptations to variable environments

Understanding how organisms adapt to environmental variation is a key challenge of biology. Central to this are bet‐hedging strategies that maximize geometric mean fitness across generations, either by being conservative or diversifying phenotypes. Theoretical models have identified environmental variation across generations with multiplicative fitness effects as driving the evolution of bet‐hedging. However, behavioral ecology has revealed adaptive responses to additive fitness effects of environmental variation within lifetimes, either through insurance or risk‐sensitive strategies. Here, we explore whether the effects of adaptive insurance interact with the evolution of bet‐hedging by varying the position and skew of both arithmetic and geometric mean fitness functions. We find that insurance causes the optimal phenotype to shift from the peak to down the less steeply decreasing side of the fitness function, and that conservative bet‐hedging produces an additional shift on top of this, which decreases as adaptive phenotypic variation from diversifying bet‐hedging increases. When diversifying bet‐hedging is not an option, environmental canalization to reduce phenotypic variation is almost always favored, except where the tails of the fitness function are steeply convex and produce a novel risk‐sensitive increase in phenotypic variance akin to diversifying bet‐hedging. Importantly, using skewed fitness functions, we provide the first model that explicitly addresses how conservative and diversifying bet‐hedging strategies might coexist.     

Maternal source of variability in the embryo development of an annual killifish

Organisms inhabiting unpredictable environments often evolve diversified reproductive bet‐hedging strategies, expressed as production of multiple offspring phenotypes, thereby avoiding complete reproductive failure. To cope with unpredictable rainfall, African annual killifish from temporary savannah pools lay drought‐resistant eggs that vary widely in the duration of embryo development. We examined the sources of variability in the duration of individual embryo development, egg production and fertilization rate in Nothobranchius furzeri. Using a quantitative genetics approach (North Carolina type II design), we found support for maternal effects rather than polyandrous mating as the primary source of the variability in the duration of embryo development. The number of previously laid eggs appeared to serve as an internal physiological cue initiating a shift from rapid‐to‐slow embryo developmental mode. In annual killifish, extensive phenotypic variability in progeny traits is adaptive, as the conditions experienced by parents have limited relevance to the offspring generation. In contrast to genetic control, with high phenotypic expression and heritability, maternal control of traits under natural selection prevents standing genetic diversity from potentially detrimental effects of selection in fluctuating environments.     

Multitasking and the evolution of optimal clutch size in fluctuating environments

Adaptive studies of avian clutch size variation across environmental gradients have resulted in what has become known as the fecundity gradient paradox, the observation that clutch size typically decreases with increasing breeding season length along latitudinal gradients, but increases with increasing breeding season length along elevational gradients. These puzzling findings challenge the common belief that organisms should reduce their clutch size in favor of additional nesting attempts as the length of the breeding season increases, an approach typically described as a bet‐hedging strategy. Here, we propose an alternative hypothesis—the multitasking hypothesis—and show that laying smaller clutches represents a multitasking strategy of switching between breeding and recovery from breeding. Both our individual‐based and analytical models demonstrate that a small clutch size strategy is favored during shorter breeding seasons because less time and energy are wasted under the severe time constraints associated with breeding multiply within a season. Our model also shows that a within‐generation bet‐hedging strategy is not favored by natural selection, even under a high risk of predation and in long breeding seasons. Thus, saving time—wasting less time as a result of an inability to complete a breeding cycle at the end of breeding season—is likely to be the primary benefit favoring the evolution of small avian clutch sizes during short breeding seasons. We also synthesize the seasonality hypothesis (pronounced seasonality leads to larger clutch size) and clutch size‐dependent predation hypothesis (larger clutch size causes higher predation risks) within our multitasking hypothesis to develop an integrative model to help resolve the paradox of contrasting patterns of clutch size along elevational and latitudinal gradients. Ultimately, our models provide a new perspective for understanding life‐history evolution under fluctuating environments.     

Experimental evolution of bet hedging in rotifer diapause traits as a response to environmental unpredictability

The adaptive response of organisms to unpredictable environments is increasingly recognized as a central topic in fundamental and applied evolutionary ecology. Selection due to environmental unpredictability can act on multiple traits of an organism's life cycle to reduce the impact of high environmental variance. The aim of this research was to study how unpredictability selects for diapause traits: 1) the timing of sex (a proxy of the timing of diapausing egg production), and 2) the diapausing egg hatching fraction (a proxy of diapause duration). We used an experimental evolution approach with the facultative sexual rotifer Brachionus plicatilis. Laboratory populations experiencing two contrasting regimes of environmental fluctuation (predictable versus unpredictable) evolved divergently over a short time span (< 77 days). The populations under the unpredictable regime showed an earlier initiation of sexual reproduction and a lower hatching fraction of diapausing eggs than populations under the predictable regime. These findings demonstrate empirically the existence of bet‐hedging strategies in B. plicatilis regarding both traits, consistent with theoretical predictions of bet‐hedging evolution under conditions of unpredictable environmental variance. Given that scenarios of increased environmental variability are expected to occur in the near future, a comprehensive understanding of the role of bet‐hedging strategies is necessary for predicting population responses to environmental change.     

The evolution of an annual life cycle in killifish: adaptation to ephemeral aquatic environments through embryonic diapause

An annual life cycle is characterized by growth, maturity, and reproduction condensed into a single, short season favourable to development, with production of embryos (seeds, cysts, or eggs) capable of surviving harsh conditions which juveniles or adults cannot tolerate. More typically associated with plants in desert environments, or temperate‐zone insects exposed to freezing winters, the evolution of an annual life cycle in vertebrates is fairly novel. Killifish, small sexually dimorphic fishes in the Order Cyprinodontiformes, have adapted to seasonally ephemeral water bodies across much of Africa and South America through the independent evolution of an annual life history. These annual killifish produce hardy desiccation‐resistant eggs that undergo diapause (developmental arrest) and remain buried in the soil for long periods when fish have perished due to the drying of their habitat. Killifish are found in aquatic habitats that span a continuum from permanent and stable to seasonal and variable, thus providing a useful system in which to piece together the evolutionary history of this life cycle using natural comparative variation. I first review adaptations for life in ephemeral aquatic environments in killifish, with particular emphasis on the evolution of embryonic diapause. I then bring together available evidence from a variety of approaches and provide a scenario for how this annual life cycle evolved. There are a number of features within Aplocheiloidei killifish including their inhabitation of marginal or edge aquatic habitat, their small size and rapid attainment of maturity, and egg properties that make them particularly well suited to the colonization of ephemeral waters.     

When sensing is gambling: An experimental system reveals how plasticity can generate tunable bet‐hedging strategies

Genotypes can persist in unpredictable environments by “hedging their bets” and producing diverse phenotypes. Theoretical studies have shown that the phenotypic variability needed for a bet‐hedging strategy can be generated by factors either inside or outside an organism. However, sensing the environment and bet hedging are frequently treated as distinct evolutionary strategies. Furthermore, nearly all empirical studies of the molecular underpinnings of bet‐hedging strategies to date have focused on internal sources of variability. We took a synthetic approach and constructed an experimental system where a phenotypic trade‐off is mediated by actively sensing a cue present in the environment. We show that active sensing can generate a diversified bet‐hedging strategy. Mutations affecting the norm of reaction to the cue alter the diversification strategy, indicating that bet hedging by active sensing is evolvable. Our results indicate that a broader class of biological systems should be considered as potential examples of bet‐hedging strategies, and that research into the structure of environmental variability is needed to distinguish bet‐hedging strategies from adaptive plasticity.     

Facing environmental predictability with different sources of epigenetic variation

Different sources of epigenetic changes can increase the range of phenotypic options. Environmentally induced epigenetic changes and stochastic epimutations are, respectively, associated with phenotypic plasticity and diversifying bet‐hedging. Their relative contribution is thus expected to reflect the capacity of a genotype to face distinct changes since these strategies are differentially selected according to environmental uncertainty. To test this hypothesis, we assessed the sources of epigenetic changes on clonal fish from predictable (lakes) or unpredictable (intermittent streams) environments. DNA methylation of clones from natural conditions revealed contrasting contribution of environmentally induced versus stochastic changes according to their origins. These differences were validated in common garden experiments. Consistent with theoretical models, distinct sources of epigenetic variation prevail according to the environmental uncertainty. However, both sources act conjointly, suggesting that plasticity and random processes are complementary strategies. This represents a rigorous approach for further exploring the capacity of organisms to respond to environmental conditions.     

Obligate annual and successive facultative diapause establish a bet‐hedging strategy of Rhagoletis cerasi (Diptera: Tephritidae) in seasonally unpredictable environments

To cope with temporal and spatial heterogeneity of habitats, herbivorous insects in the temperate zone usually enter diapause that facilitates synchronization of their life cycle with specific stages of host plants, such as fruit ripening. In the present study, we address those factors regulating dormancy responses as part of a ‘longer strategy’ to persist and thrive in temperate environments, focusing on Rhagoletis cerasi, a univoltine, oligophagous species, which overwinters as pupae and emerges when host fruits are available for oviposition at local scale. To ensure population survival and reproduction at habitats with ecological heterogeneity, R. cerasi has evolved a sophisticated diapause strategy based on a combination of local adaptation and diversified bet‐hedging strategies. Diapause duration is determined both by (i) the adaptive response to local host fruit phenology patterns (annual diapause) and (ii) the plastic responses to unpredictable inter‐annual (temporal) climatic variability that drives a proportion of the populations to extend dormancy by entering a second, successive, facultative cycle of prolonged diapause as part of a bet‐hedging strategy. Besides the dormant periods, post‐diapause development (which varies among populations) exerts ‘fine tune’ adjustments that assure synchronization and may correct possible errors. Adults emerging from pupae with prolonged diapause are larger in body size compared with counterparts emerging during the first year of diapause. However, female fecundity rates are reduced, followed by an extended post‐oviposition period, whereas adult longevity remains unaffected. Overall, it appears that R. cerasi populations are adapted to ecological conditions of local habitats and respond plastically to unpredictable environmental (climatic) conditions.     

Within‐and among‐year germination in Sonoran Desert winter annuals: bet hedging and predictive germination in a variable environment

In variable environments, organisms must have strategies to ensure fitness as conditions change. For plants, germination can time emergence with favourable conditions for later growth and reproduction (predictive germination), spread the risk of unfavourable conditions (bet hedging) or both (integrated strategies). Here we explored the adaptive value of within‐ and among‐year germination timing for 12 species of Sonoran Desert winter annual plants. We parameterised models with long‐term demographic data to predict optimal germination fractions and compared them to observed germination. At both temporal scales we found that bet hedging is beneficial and that predicted optimal strategies corresponded well with observed germination. We also found substantial fitness benefits to varying germination timing, suggesting some degree of predictive germination in nature. However, predictive germination was imperfect, calling for some degree of bet hedging. Together, our results suggest that desert winter annuals have integrated strategies combining both predictive plasticity and bet hedging.     

Seed Germination in Desert Annuals: An Empirical Test of Adaptive Bet Hedging

Temporal variability in survivorship and reproduction is predicted to affect the evolution of life-history characters. Desert annual plants experience temporal variation in reproductive success that is largely caused by precipitation variability. We studied several populations of the desert annual Plantago insularis along a precipitation gradient. Whereas models of bet hedging in unpredictable environments generally predict one optimal germination fraction for a population, empirical studies have shown that environmental conditions during germination can cause a range of germination fractions to be expressed. In a 4-yr field study, we found that populations in historically more xeric environments had lower mean germination fractions, as is predicted by bet-hedging models. However, populations exhibited significant variation in germination among years. Two experimental studies measuring germination under several environment conditions were conducted to elucidate the source of this in situ variation. Germination fractions exhibited phenotypic plasticity in response to water availability and date within the season. Populations differed in their norms of reaction such that seeds from more xeric populations germinated under less restrictive conditions. A pattern of delayed germination consistent with among-year bet-hedging predictions arose in the field through the interaction of seed germinability and the distribution of environmental conditions during germination.     

Variability in thermal and phototactic preferences in Drosophila may reflect an adaptive bet‐hedging strategy

Organisms use various strategies to cope with fluctuating environmental conditions. In diversified bet‐hedging, a single genotype exhibits phenotypic heterogeneity with the expectation that some individuals will survive transient selective pressures. To date, empirical evidence for bet‐hedging is scarce. Here, we observe that individual Drosophila melanogaster flies exhibit striking variation in light‐ and temperature‐preference behaviors. With a modeling approach that combines real world weather and climate data to simulate temperature preference‐dependent survival and reproduction, we find that a bet‐hedging strategy may underlie the observed interindividual behavioral diversity. Specifically, bet‐hedging outcompetes strategies in which individual thermal preferences are heritable. Animals employing bet‐hedging refrain from adapting to the coolness of spring with increased warm‐seeking that inevitably becomes counterproductive in the hot summer. This strategy is particularly valuable when mean seasonal temperatures are typical, or when there is considerable fluctuation in temperature within the season. The model predicts, and we experimentally verify, that the behaviors of individual flies are not heritable. Finally, we model the effects of historical weather data, climate change, and geographic seasonal variation on the optimal strategies underlying behavioral variation between individuals, characterizing the regimes in which bet‐hedging is advantageous.     

Patterns of phenotypic and genetic variation for the plasticity of diapause incidence

Phenotypic plasticity describes an organism's ability to produce multiple phenotypes in direct response to its environmental conditions. Over the past 15 years empiricists have found that this plasticity frequently exhibits geographic variation and often possesses a significant heritable genetic basis. However, few studies have examined both of these aspects of plasticity simultaneously. Here, we examined both the geographic and genetic variations of the plasticity for diapause incidence (the proportion of eggs that enter an arrested state of development capable of surviving over the winter) relative to temperatures and photoperiods associated with long and short season environments across six populations of the striped ground cricket, Allonemobius socius, using a half-sibling split brood quantitative genetic design. We found that plasticity, as measured by the slope of the reaction norm, was greater in the southern-low altitude region (where populations are bivoltine) relative to the southern-high and northern-low altitude regions (where populations are univoltine). However, the heritability of plasticity was only significantly different from zero in univoltine populations that experienced "intermediate" natal season lengths. These patterns suggest that selection may favor the plasticity of diapause incidence in bivoltine regions, but act against plasticity in regions in which populations are univoltine. Furthermore, our data suggest that under "intermediate" natal season length conditions, the interplay between local adaptation and gene flow may keep the plasticity of diapause incidence low (but still significant) while maintaining its genetic variation. As such, this study not only provides a novel observation into the geographic variation of phenotypic plasticity, but also provides much needed groundwork for tests of its adaptive significance.     

Variable maternal control of facultative egg diapause in the bushcricket Ephippiger ephippiger

1. Diapause is a term used to describe an arrest in the development of insects as adults, eggs, or embryos, and allows survival during adverse environmental conditions. 2. The influence of maternal age on the proportion of eggs that entered an initial facultative diapause and on fecundity and egg mortality was investigated in the bushcricket Ephippiger ephippiger. 3. In the absence of variable abiotic cues such as temperature and photoperiod, most E. ephippiger females increase the proportion of their eggs that enter diapause as they age, however there are large differences among females, with a minority showing different trends. Fecundity and egg survival decline with female age and also differ among females. 4. The influence of age on the incidence of diapause is likely to be an adaptive reproductive strategy, as those eggs laid later in the season are unlikely to complete egg development before the onset of winter. Females are probably hedging their bets by diversifying the rate of development among their offspring and effectively spreading development over several seasons. The low predictability of future environmental conditions might explain the heterogeneity of female reproductive strategies.     

Differences in developmental strategies between long‐settled and invasion‐front populations of the cane toad in Australia

Phenotypic plasticity can enhance a species’ ability to persist in a new and stressful environment, so that reaction norms are expected to evolve as organisms encounter novel environments. Biological invasions provide a robust system to investigate such changes. We measured the rates of early growth and development in tadpoles of invasive cane toads (Rhinella marina) in Australia, from a range of locations and at different larval densities. Populations in long‐colonized areas have had the opportunity to adapt to local conditions, whereas at the expanding range edge, the invader is likely to encounter challenges that are both novel and unpredictable. We thus expected invasion‐vanguard populations to exhibit less phenotypic plasticity than range‐core populations. Compared to clutches from long‐colonized areas, clutches from the invasion front were indeed less plastic (i.e. rates of larval growth and development were less sensitive to density). In contrast, those rates were highly variable in clutches from the invasion front, even among siblings from the same clutch under standard conditions. Clutches with highly variable rates of growth and development under constant conditions had lower phenotypic plasticity, suggesting a trade‐off between these two strategies. Although these results reveal a strong pattern, further investigation is needed to determine whether these different developmental strategies are adaptive (i.e. adaptive phenotypic plasticity vs. bet‐hedging) or instead are driven by geographic variation in genetic quality or parental effects.     

Bet hedging in a warming ocean: predictability of maternal environment shapes offspring size variation in marine sticklebacks

Bet hedging at reproduction is expected to evolve when mothers are exposed to unpredictable cues for future environmental conditions, whereas transgenerational plasticity (TGP) should be favoured when cues reliably predict the environment offspring will experience. Since climate predictions forecast an increase in both temperature and climate variability, both TGP and bet hedging are likely to become important strategies to mediate climate change effects. Here, the potential to produce variably sized offspring in both warming and unpredictable environments was tested by investigating whether stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) mothers adjusted mean offspring size and within‐clutch variation in offspring size in response to experimental manipulation of maternal thermal environment and predictability (alternating between ambient and elevated water temperatures). Reproductive output traits of F1 females were influenced by both temperature and environmental predictability. Mothers that developed at ambient temperature (17 °C) produced larger, but fewer eggs than mothers that developed at elevated temperature (21 °C), implying selection for different‐sized offspring in different environments. Mothers in unpredictable environments had smaller mean egg sizes and tended to have greater within‐female egg size variability, especially at 21 °C, suggesting that mothers may have dynamically modified the variance in offspring size to spread the risk of incorrectly predicting future environmental conditions. Both TGP and diversification influenced F2 offspring body size. F2 offspring reared at 21 °C had larger mean body sizes if their mother developed at 21 °C, but this TGP benefit was not present for offspring of 17 °C mothers reared at 17 °C, indicating that maternal TGP will be highly relevant for ocean warming scenarios in this system. Offspring of variable environment mothers were smaller but more variable in size than offspring from constant environment mothers, particularly at 21 °C. In summary, stickleback mothers may have used both TGP and diversified bet‐hedging strategies to cope with the dual stress of ocean warming and environmental uncertainty.     

Bet hedging in desert winter annual plants: optimal germination strategies in a variable environment

In bet hedging, organisms sacrifice short‐term success to reduce the long‐term variance in success. Delayed germination is the classic example of bet hedging, in which a fraction of seeds remain dormant as a hedge against the risk of complete reproductive failure. Here, we investigate the adaptive nature of delayed germination as a bet hedging strategy using long‐term demographic data on Sonoran Desert winter annual plants. Using stochastic population models, we estimate fitness as a function of delayed germination and identify evolutionarily stable strategies for 12 abundant species in the community. Results indicate that delayed germination meets the criteria as a bet hedging strategy for all species. Density‐dependent models, but not density‐independent ones, predicted optimal germination strategies that correspond remarkably well with observed patterns. By incorporating naturally occurring variation in seed and seedling dynamics, our results present a rigorous test of bet hedging theory within the relevant environmental context.