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1.
The European Badger (Meles meles) has been implicated in the epidemiology of bovine tuberculosis in cattle populations in the Republic of Ireland. Badger populations have been subject to a culling regime in areas with chronic histories of bTB cattle herd breakdowns. Removal data from 2004 to 2010 were used to model the impact of culling on populations in areas under capture. Additionally, changes in field signs of badger activity were used as an index of abundance to support, or otherwise, the outcomes of the removal models. Significant reductions in standardised badger captures over time were found across three large study areas (total area, 1,355 km2). Assuming that all inactive setts were vacant, an overall linear trend model suggested that badger captures had decreased by 78 % for setts with 6 years of repeated capturing operations. Given the uncertainty associated with the relationship between sett activity and badger presence, we repeated the linear modelling using two ‘what if’ scenarios. Assuming that individual badgers were missed on 10 % or 20 % of occasions at inactive setts, the estimated decline over 6 years is lowered to 71 % or 64 %, respectively. The decline profile consisted of a steep initial decrease in captures within the first 2 years, followed by a more gradual decrease thereafter. The number of active openings at setts (burrows) declined significantly in all three areas; but the magnitude of this decline varied significantly amongst study areas (41–82 %). There was a significant increase in the probability of setts becoming dormant with time. The removal programme was more intense (mean, 0.45 badgers culled km?2 year?1) than previous experimental badger removals in Ireland but some captures may be attributed to immigrant badgers as no attempt was made to limit inward dispersal from areas not under management. Results from this study suggest that significant reductions in badger density occurred in the areas where management had taken place. Since other non-culled badger populations in Northern Ireland and Britain exhibited stable population trends, we attribute the reduction in relative abundance to the culling regime. Further studies of the dynamics of this reduction are required to quantify how it is counteracted by immigration from populations outside of culled areas.  相似文献   

2.
Variation in climatic and habitat conditions can affect populations through a variety of mechanisms, and these relationships can act at different temporal and spatial scales. Using post‐mortem badger body weight records from 15 878 individuals captured across the Republic of Ireland (7224 setts across ca. 15 000 km2; 2009–2012), we employed a hierarchical multilevel mixed model to evaluate the effects of climate (rainfall and temperature) and habitat quality (landscape suitability), while controlling for local abundance (unique badgers caught/sett/year). Body weight was affected strongly by temperature across a number of temporal scales (preceding month or season), with badgers being heavier if preceding temperatures (particularly during winter/spring) were warmer than the long‐term seasonal mean. There was less support for rainfall across different temporal scales, although badgers did exhibit heavier weights when greater rainfall occurred one or 2 months prior to capture. Badgers were also heavier in areas with higher landscape habitat quality, modulated by the number of individuals captured per sett, consistent with density‐dependent effects reducing weights. Overall, the mean badger body weight of culled individuals rose during the study period (2009–2012), more so for males than for females. With predicted increases in temperature, and rainfall, augmented by ongoing agricultural land conversion in this region, we project heavier individual badger body weights in the future. Increased body weight has been associated with higher fecundity, recruitment and survival rates in badgers, due to improved food availability and energetic budgets. We thus predict that climate change could increase the badger population across the Republic of Ireland. Nevertheless, we emphasize that, locally, populations could still be vulnerable to extreme weather variability coupled with detrimental agricultural practice, including population management.  相似文献   

3.
A long-term research programme has been underway in Ireland to evaluate the usefulness of badger vaccination as part of the national bTB (bovine tuberculosis) control strategy. This culminated in a field trial which commenced in county Kilkenny in 2009 to determine the effects of badger vaccination on Mycobacterium bovis transmission in badgers under field conditions. In the present study, we sought to optimise the characteristics of a multiplex chemiluminescent assay for detection of M. bovis infection in live badgers. Our goal was to maximise specificity, and therefore statistical power, during evaluation of the badger vaccine trial data. In addition, we also aimed to explore the effects of vaccination on test characteristics. For the test optimisation, we ran a stepwise logistic regression with analytical weights on the converted Relative Light Units (RLU) obtained from testing blood samples from 215 badgers captured as part of culling operations by the national Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine (DAFM). The optimised test was applied to two other datasets obtained from two captive badger studies (Study 1 and Study 2), and the sensitivity and specificity of the test was attained separately for vaccinated and non-vaccinated badgers. During optimisation, test sensitivity was maximised (30.77%), while retaining specificity at 99.99%. When the optimised test was then applied to the captive badger studies data, we observed that test characteristics did not vary greatly between vaccinated and non-vaccinated badgers. However, a different time lag between infection and a positive test result was observed in vaccinated and non-vaccinated badgers. We propose that the optimized multiplex immunoassay be used to analyse the vaccine trial data. In relation to the difference in the time lag observed for vaccinated and non-vaccinated badgers, we also present a strategy to enable the test to be used during trial evaluation.  相似文献   

4.
Estimates of population size and trappability inform vaccine efficacy modelling and are required for adaptive management during prolonged wildlife vaccination campaigns. We present an analysis of mark-recapture data from a badger vaccine (Bacille Calmette–Guérin) study in Ireland. This study is the largest scale (755 km2) mark-recapture study ever undertaken with this species. The study area was divided into three approximately equal–sized zones, each with similar survey and capture effort. A mean badger population size of 671 (SD: 76) was estimated using a closed-subpopulation model (CSpM) based on data from capturing sessions of the entire area and was consistent with a separate multiplicative model. Minimum number alive estimates calculated from the same data were on average 49–51% smaller than the CSpM estimates, but these are considered severely negatively biased when trappability is low. Population densities derived from the CSpM estimates were 0.82–1.06 badgers km−2, and broadly consistent with previous reports for an adjacent area. Mean trappability was estimated to be 34–35% per session across the population. By the fifth capture session, 79% of the adult badgers caught had been marked previously. Multivariable modelling suggested significant differences in badger trappability depending on zone, season and age-class. There were more putatively trap-wary badgers identified in the population than trap-happy badgers, but wariness was not related to individual’s sex, zone or season of capture. Live-trapping efficacy can vary significantly amongst sites, seasons, age, or personality, hence monitoring of trappability is recommended as part of an adaptive management regime during large–scale wildlife vaccination programs to counter biases and to improve efficiencies.  相似文献   

5.
The signal for climate change effects can be abstruse; consequently, interpretations of evidence must avoid verisimilitude, or else misattribution of causality could compromise policy decisions. Examining climatic effects on wild animal population dynamics requires ability to trap, observe or photograph and to recapture study individuals consistently. In this regard, we use 19 years of data (1994–2012), detailing the life histories on 1179 individual European badgers over 3288 (re‐) trapping events, to test whether trapping efficiency was associated with season, weather variables (both contemporaneous and time lagged), body‐condition index (BCI) and trapping efficiency (TE). PCA factor loadings demonstrated that TE was affected significantly by temperature and precipitation, as well as time lags in these variables. From multi‐model inference, BCI was the principal driver of TE, where badgers in good condition were less likely to be trapped. Our analyses exposed that this was enacted mechanistically via weather variables driving BCI, affecting TE. Notably, the very conditions that militated for poor trapping success have been associated with actual survival and population abundance benefits in badgers. Using these findings to parameterize simulations, projecting best‐/worst‐case scenario weather conditions and BCI resulted in 8.6% ± 4.9 SD difference in seasonal TE, leading to a potential 55.0% population abundance under‐estimation under the worst‐case scenario; 38.6% over‐estimation under the best case. Interestingly, simulations revealed that while any single trapping session might prove misrepresentative of the true population abundance, due to weather effects, prolonging capture–mark–recapture studies under sub‐optimal conditions decreased the accuracy of population estimates significantly. We also use these projection scenarios to explore how weather could impact government‐led trapping of badgers in the UK, in relation to TB management. We conclude that population monitoring must be calibrated against the likelihood that weather conditions could be altering trap success directly, and therefore biasing model design.  相似文献   

6.
Culling is often considered as a tool for controlling wildlife diseases that can also infect people or livestock. Culling European badgers Meles meles can cause both positive and negative effects on the incidence of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in cattle. One factor likely to influence the outcome of different badger-culling strategies for cattle TB is the reduction in badger population density achieved. However, this reduction is difficult to measure because badgers, being nocturnal and fossorial, are difficult to count. Here, we use indices of badger abundance to measure the population impacts of two culling strategies tested in Britain. The densities of badger setts and latrines recorded before culling were correlated with the densities of badgers captured on initial culls, suggesting that both were indices of actual badger abundance. Widespread 'proactive' culling was associated with a 73% reduction in the density of badger latrines, a 69% reduction in the density of active burrows and a 73% reduction in the density of road-killed badgers. This population reduction was achieved by a coordinated effort entailing widespread and repeated trapping over several years. However, this strategy caused only modest reductions in cattle TB incidence in culled areas and elevated incidence in neighbouring unculled areas. Localized 'reactive' culling caused a 26% reduction in latrine density, a 32% reduction in active burrow density and a 10% reduction in the density of road-killed badgers, but apparently increased the incidence of cattle TB. These results indicate that the relationship between badger population reduction and TB transmission to cattle is strongly non-linear, probably because culling prompts changes in badger behaviour that influence transmission rates. These findings raise serious questions about the capacity of badger culling to contribute to the control of cattle TB in Britain.  相似文献   

7.
Control of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in cattle has proven particularly challenging where reservoirs of infection exist in wildlife populations. In Britain and Ireland, control is hampered by a reservoir of infection in Eurasian badgers (Meles meles). Badger culling has positive and negative effects on bovine TB in cattle and is difficult, costly and controversial. Here we show that Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination of captive badgers reduced the progression, severity and excretion of Mycobacterium bovis infection after experimental challenge. In a clinical field study, BCG vaccination of free-living badgers reduced the incidence of positive serological test results by 73.8 per cent. In common with other species, BCG did not appear to prevent infection of badgers subjected to experimental challenge, but did significantly reduce the overall disease burden. BCG vaccination of badgers could comprise an important component of a comprehensive programme of measures to control bovine TB in cattle.  相似文献   

8.
Animal populations generally increase after release from hunting pressure and/or cessation of illegal persecution. Implementation of full legislative protection of the Eurasian badger Meles meles in Great Britain is thought to have led to increases in badger abundance due to reduced levels of persecution. Conversely, prevalence of badger persecution in Northern Ireland was historically much higher than in Great Britain, and badger abundance remained stable over time despite similar legislative protection. We examined temporal changes in the prevalence of badger sett disturbance in Northern Ireland from 1990/1993 to 2007/2008 in relation to population status. A total of 56 (12.6%) of 445 setts surveyed during 1990/1993 had been disturbed compared to 29 (4.4%) of 653 setts during 2007/2008. This was a significant decline (−65%) in the incidence of sett disturbance over the 14–18-year period. Most notably, the incidence of digging at badger setts, indicative of local badger baiting activity, declined from 50% to 3.5% of disturbed setts. Signs of recent disturbance were significantly more frequent at disused setts suggesting that once disturbed, badgers may vacate a sett. The number of badger social groups in Northern Ireland did not differ between the two study periods, suggesting that previously high levels of badger persecution did not limit the number of badger social groups. The stability of the badger population in Northern Ireland compared to the growing population in Great Britain cannot be attributed to changes in the prevalence of persecution. Differences in the trajectories of both populations could be due to a range of factors including climate, habitat composition and structure, farming practices or food availability. More work is needed to determine how such factors influence badger population dynamics.  相似文献   

9.
The Eurasian badger (Meles meles) has been implicated in the transmission of bovine tuberculosis (TB, caused by Mycobacterium bovis) to cattle. However, evidence suggests that attempts to reduce the spread of TB among cattle in Britain by culling badgers have mixed effects. A large-scale field experiment (the randomized badger culling trial, RBCT) showed that widespread proactive badger culling reduced the incidence of TB in cattle within culled areas but that TB incidence increased in adjoining areas. Additionally, localized reactive badger culling increased the incidence of TB in cattle. It has been suggested that culling-induced perturbation of badger social structure may increase individual movements and elevate the risk of disease transmission between badgers and cattle. Field studies support this hypothesis, by demonstrating increases in badger group ranges and the prevalence of TB infection in badgers following culling. However, more evidence on the effect of culling on badger movements is needed in order to predict the epidemiological consequences of this control strategy. Here, analysis of the genetic signatures of badger populations in the RBCT revealed increased dispersal following culling. While standard tests provided evidence for greater dispersal after culling, a novel method indicated that this was due to medium- and long-distance dispersal, in addition to previously reported increases in home-range size. Our results also indicated that, on average, badgers infected with M. bovis moved significantly farther than did uninfected badgers. A disease control strategy that included culling would need to take account of the potentially negative epidemiological consequences of increased badger dispersal.  相似文献   

10.
Bovine tuberculosis is a disease of historical importance to human health in the UK that remains a major animal health and economic issue. Control of the disease in cattle is complicated by the presence of a reservoir species, the Eurasian badger. In spite of uncertainty in the degree to which cattle disease results from transmission from badgers, and opposition from environmental groups, culling of badgers has been licenced in two large areas in England. Methods to limit culls to smaller areas that target badgers infected with TB whilst minimising the number of uninfected badgers culled is therefore of considerable interest. Here, we use historical data from a large-scale field trial of badger culling to assess two alternative hypothetical methods of targeting TB-infected badgers based on the distribution of cattle TB incidents: (i) a simple circular ‘ring cull’; and (ii) geographic profiling, a novel technique for spatial targeting of infectious disease control that predicts the locations of sources of infection based on the distribution of linked cases. Our results showed that both methods required coverage of very large areas to ensure a substantial proportion of infected badgers were removed, and would result in many uninfected badgers being culled. Geographic profiling, which accounts for clustering of infections in badger and cattle populations, produced a small but non-significant increase in the proportion of setts with TB-infected compared to uninfected badgers included in a cull. It also provided no overall improvement at targeting setts with infected badgers compared to the ring cull. Cattle TB incidents in this study were therefore insufficiently clustered around TB-infected badger setts to design an efficient spatially targeted cull; and this analysis provided no evidence to support a move towards spatially targeted badger culling policies for bovine TB control.  相似文献   

11.
李峰  蒋志刚 《生物多样性》2014,22(6):758-580
青海湖地区是目前已知的狗獾分布海拔最高点。为了解狗獾在青藏高原严酷生态环境下的生活史特点, 并验证是否人类干扰造成了狗獾夜行性的假说, 我们利用红外相机技术, 结合无线电遥测和野外调查研究了青海湖湖东地区亚洲狗獾(Meles leucurus)的种群密度、洞穴口的行为及活动节律。结果表明: (1)研究地区狗獾的平均种群密度为1.2 ± 0.6只/km2, 其分布受食物丰富度的影响; (2)狗獾基本在夜间活动, 出洞时间集中在20:00-23:00之间, 而回洞时间则集中在清晨4:00-7:00之间, 23:00-4:00之间是狗獾的活动高峰; (3)狗獾离洞前行为主要是警戒行为, 回洞穴时的行为主要是嬉戏行为, 其他行为较少见, 表达具有特定的时间性; (4)人类活动对于狗獾活动没有显著性影响(P < 0.05)。  相似文献   

12.
In the UK and Ireland, research on the control of bovine tuberculosis in badgers includes the development of a palatable bait for oral delivery of a vaccine and a means of its deployment in the field. In the present study, we carried out field deployment of bait according to the established method of bait marking in early spring and early summer to compare the effects of seasonality on bait uptake rates. All baits contained rhodamine B (RhB) which was subsequently detected in the hair and whiskers of captured badgers. During the 8 days of bait feeding at 14 badger setts, 99% of baits deployed in spring, and 100% of those deployed in summer were removed. The presence of RhB in captured badgers indicated high rates of uptake amongst adult badgers in spring (93%) and summer (98%). Only cubs captured in summer showed evidence of having taken bait (91%). Between 67% and 100% of each social group was estimated to have taken bait. The detection of RhB in 96% of badgers captured at outlier setts, where bait was not fed, suggested that deployment at main setts alone may be sufficient to target a relatively high proportion of the badger population. The number of baits deployed per marked badger suggested that a similar level of uptake might be achievable using fewer baits. The results clearly demonstrate the potential value of the bait-marking methodology for delivering vaccine baits to badgers during spring and summer, but that deployment in early summer is necessary to target cubs.  相似文献   

13.
The spatial distribution of wildlife hosts and the associated environmental distribution of their excretory products are important factors associated with the risk of disease transmission between wildlife and livestock. At a landscape scale, heterogeneous distribution of a wildlife host will create regional hot spots for disease risk, while at the farm level, distributional patterns of wildlife excretory products as well as habitat use are of primary importance to the assessment of disease risk to livestock. In the UK, badgers have been implicated in the transmission of bovine tuberculosis to cattle. In this study, we focus on the spatial and social organization and habitat use of badgers as well as the distributions of their excretions at latrine and sett sites to assess intra- and inter-species (badger–cattle) disease risk. Across the study site, badger latrines and setts were found in prominent clusters, at distances of up to 250 and 200 m respectively. This was partly due to small-scale clustering of latrines around sett sites, so that disease risk may be higher within the vicinity of setts. The clustered distribution suggests that sites of high risk for TB transmission may be localised within farms. Exclusion of cattle from the few sett and latrine sites within their grazing pasture is therefore likely to provide an effective way of reducing the risk of disease transmission. We also found evidence of social sub-division within badger social groups based on differences in the use of main and outlier setts. This may contribute to localised clusters of infection within the badger population, resulting in heterogeneous patterns of environmental disease risk to the wider host community. A greater understanding of variation in host behaviour and its implications for patterns of disease will allow the development of more targeted and effective management strategies for wildlife disease in group-living hosts.  相似文献   

14.
The Eurasian badger (Meles meles) is implicated in the transmission of bovine tuberculosis (TB) to cattle in the UK and Republic of Ireland. Badger culling has been employed for the control of TB in cattle in both countries, with varying results. Social perturbation of badger populations following culling has been proposed as an explanation for the failure of culling to consistently demonstrate significant reductions in cattle TB. Field studies indicate that culling badgers may result in increased immigration into culled areas, disruption of territoriality, increased ranging and mixing between social groups. Our analysis shows that some measures of sociality may remain significantly disrupted for up to 8 years after culling. This may have epidemiological consequences because previous research has shown that even in a relatively undisturbed badger population, movements between groups are associated with increases in the incidence of Mycobacterium bovis infection. This is consistent with the results from a large-scale field trial, which demonstrated decreased benefits of culling at the edges of culled areas, and an increase in herd breakdown rates in neighbouring cattle.  相似文献   

15.
Are setts significant determinants of badger socio‐spatial organisation, and do suitable sett sites represent a limited resource, potentially affecting badger distributions? The factors determining diurnal resting den, or sett, location and selection by Eurasian badgers Meles meles L. were investigated in Wytham Woods, Oxfordshire. 279 sett sites were located. The habitat parameters that were associated with the siting of these setts were analysed and associations were sought between sett location and character and the body condition and body weight of resident badgers Habitat characteristics in the vicinity of setts were significantly different from randomly selected points. Badgers preferentially selected sites with sandy, well‐drained soils, situated on NW‐facing, convex and moderately inclined slopes at moderate altitude. There was no evidence that sett morphology (number of entrances, sett area, number of hinterland latrines) was affected by the surrounding sett site habitat characteristics. Mean body weight was significantly higher for badgers occupying territories with setts in sandy soils, situated on NW‐facing slopes, than in territories with less optimal sett characteristics. Contrary to the hypothesis that the availability of sett sites was limiting, and therefore that sett dispersion dictates the spatial and social organisation of their populations, the badgers were clearly able to excavate new setts. On our measures, these new setts were not inferior to old established ones, despite occupying subsequently exploited sites; the badgers utilising these new setts had neither lighter body weights nor poorer body condition scores. During the period of our study badgers have manifestly been able to dig numerous new setts; as satisfactory sites still remain available, this indicates that suitable sett sites have not yet become a limiting resource. There was no relationship between sett age and the characteristics of the site in which it was dug, as suitable sites were not limiting. Significantly, population expansion during the decade 1987–1997 was not constrained by lack of setts, rather the main proliferation in setts occurred after the population size had peaked in 1996. Some implications for the management and conservation of the Eurasian badger are considered.  相似文献   

16.
Eurasian badgers, Meles meles, in Mediterranean cork‐oak woodlands live in small groups within territories that embrace a mosaic of habitats where several setts (dens) are scattered. Assuming that their population density was related to home range sizes and that this in turn was influenced by food and water availability and the existence of substrate suitable for sett construction, we explored the relationship between these parameters. Two biotopes were predominantly important in providing food security to badgers in the ‘Grândola’ mountain study area: olive groves and orchards or vegetable gardens. Analysis of the mean total area of these two habitats in the ranges of radio‐tracked badgers permitted us to extrapolate to an estimate that the 66 km2 encompassed eleven areas with the capacity to support badger groups each composed by 6–8 individuals. Since only three groups populated the area we concluded that food availability was not limiting badger density. Sites with surface water in summer (the dry season) seem sufficient to support more badger groups than existed, leading us to believe that this factor was also not limiting badger density. Simultaneously, using a logistic regression model and the biophysical characteristics of sett sites as explanatory variables, four predictor variables determined sett location: the existence of a geological fault/discontinuity, ridges, valleys and the distance to abandoned farm houses, of which the former had the higher odds ratio, being thus the best sett location predictor. Indeed, 56% of the areas predicted with >80% confidence to contain a badger sett were encompassed within a known home range. Therefore, our results suggest that, in Mediterranean cork oak woodlands in SW Portugal, the main factor limiting badger's density is the availability of suitable sites for setts. However, in areas where suitable sites for burrows existed, but food patches were absent, badgers were not found. This could indicate that the presence of both factors was necessary for badgers, although in this area sites suitable for digging setts appeared to be the primary limiting factor.  相似文献   

17.
In Ireland, the badger Meles meles L is a reservoir species for Mycobacterium bovis and, as such, contributes to the maintenance of bovine tuberculosis in cattle. A previous estimate of the badger population in the Republic was 200,000 badgers. In the current study, we obtained data on badger numbers from a large-scale badger removal project (the Four-Area project). The removal areas of the Four-Area Project were surrounded by barriers (either water or buffer areas where removals were also conducted) to prevent badger immigration. Within these areas, a grid of 0.25 km2 was created within which we knew the badger numbers and habitat types (based on Corine data). Associations between badger numbers and habitat type were investigated using negative binomial modeling. Extrapolations from the model yielded an estimated badger population in the Republic of approximately 84,000 badgers. The implications of these findings are discussed.  相似文献   

18.
European badgers (Meles meles) are considered central-place foragers, whose spatial ecology is predominantly determined by sett location. Many studies have assessed the factors determining sett site selection throughout this species’ range, but these have often been geographically limited and have primarily identified locally dependent factors. To infer key factors determining sett location, a broader scale approach is needed. Between June 2014 and January 2017, we surveyed mainland Portugal to detect badger setts in 10?×?10 km cells, corresponding to a total of 657.5 km walked line transects. We detected 54 main setts in 136 surveyed cells. Each sett and non-sett site (i.e. transects without setts) was characterised using bioenvironmental variables (e.g. land cover, presence of human infrastructure, soil). We used generalized linear mixed models to test five hypotheses potentially explaining sett location: land cover composition; anthropogenic disturbance; abiotic environmental drivers; trophic resource availability; and a combined effect of all these factors. Our findings show that the key factors for badger sett site selection in Portugal are: (1) disturbance avoidance (low beehive density; absence of livestock; far from hunting reserves), but with a tendency to be located close to highways and unpaved roads; and (2) ease of excavation (avoidance of sedimentary/metamorphic composite rocks). Although specific factors among these drivers may be more important locally or regionally, these major drivers have also been identified elsewhere in Europe. Our nationwide approach contributes to a broader understanding of general patterns of sett site selection by badgers in southern Europe. Furthermore, it provides the national authorities with novel and broad-scale data to facilitate sustainable species conservation of badgers in the southwestern limit of their range.  相似文献   

19.
张广才岭藏獾洞穴生境选择   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
李路云  杨会涛  滕丽微  刘振生 《生态学报》2015,35(14):4836-4842
2008年9月至2009年8月,在黑龙江省方正林业局新风林场,用不定宽样线法对藏獾洞穴生境选择进行研究,共记录了55组藏獾洞穴,藏獾洞口平均直径为(27.40±7.15)cm,洞深平均为(84.18±22.04)cm,倾角平均为(26.36±9.10)°,洞口总数=3.02个常用洞数+0.80个不常用洞数+0.56个废弃洞数。相对于对照样方而言,藏獾洞穴更偏爱选择位于郁闭度和植被盖度小,灌木密度大、距离近,乔木距离远,距水源和农田近、人为干扰距离远,坡度较缓的向阳中坡位的生境。资源选择函数模型为:logit(p)=246.980-1.059×植被盖度-0.703×距水源距离-1.403×坡度-45.005×坡向,模型的正确预测率为93.9%。  相似文献   

20.

Background

Badgers are involved in the transmission to cattle of bovine tuberculosis (TB), a serious problem for the UK farming industry. Cross-sectional studies have shown an association between bite wounds and TB infection in badgers which may have implications for M. bovis transmission and control, although the sequence of these two events is unclear. Transmission during aggressive encounters could potentially reduce the effectiveness of policies which increase the average range of a badger and thus its opportunities for interaction with other social groups.

Methods

Data were obtained on badgers captured during a long term study at Woodchester Park, UK (1998–2006). Many badgers had multiple observations. At each observation, the badger was assigned a “state” depending on presence of bite wounds and/or TB infection. Hence each badger had a “transition” from the previous state to the current state. We calculated the numbers of each type of transition and the time spent in each state. Transition rates were calculated for each transition category, dividing the number of such transitions by the total time at risk. We compared the rate of bite wound acquisition in infected badgers with that for uninfected badgers and the rate of positive M.bovis test results in bitten badgers with that in unbitten badgers.

Results

The rate of bite wound acquisition in infected badgers (0.291 per year) was 2.09 (95% CI: 1.41, 3.08) times that in uninfected badgers (0.139 per year). The rate of positive M.bovis test results in bitten badgers (0.097 per year) was 2.45 (95% CI: 1.29, 4.65) times that in unbitten badgers (0.040 per year).

Conclusions

We found strong evidence of both potential sequences of events consistent with transmission via bite wounds and distinctive behaviour in infected badgers. The complex relationship between behaviour and infection must be considered when planning TB control strategies.  相似文献   

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