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1.

Background

An increase in the average age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases has been reported in Thailand. The cause of this increase is not known. Possible explanations include a reduction in transmission due to declining mosquito populations, declining contact between human and mosquito, and changes in reporting. We propose that a demographic shift toward lower birth and death rates has reduced dengue transmission and lengthened the interval between large epidemics.

Methods and Findings

Using data from each of the 72 provinces of Thailand, we looked for associations between force of infection (a measure of hazard, defined as the rate per capita at which susceptible individuals become infected) and demographic and climactic variables. We estimated the force of infection from the age distribution of cases from 1985 to 2005. We find that the force of infection has declined by 2% each year since a peak in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Contrary to recent findings suggesting that the incidence of DHF has increased in Thailand, we find a small but statistically significant decline in DHF incidence since 1985 in a majority of provinces. The strongest predictor of the change in force of infection and the mean force of infection is the median age of the population. Using mathematical simulations of dengue transmission we show that a reduced birth rate and a shift in the population''s age structure can explain the shift in the age distribution of cases, reduction of the force of infection, and increase in the periodicity of multiannual oscillations of DHF incidence in the absence of other changes.

Conclusions

Lower birth and death rates decrease the flow of susceptible individuals into the population and increase the longevity of immune individuals. The increase in the proportion of the population that is immune increases the likelihood that an infectious mosquito will feed on an immune individual, reducing the force of infection. Though the force of infection has decreased by half, we find that the critical vaccination fraction has not changed significantly, declining from an average of 85% to 80%. Clinical guidelines should consider the impact of continued increases in the age of dengue cases in Thailand. Countries in the region lagging behind Thailand in the demographic transition may experience the same increase as their population ages. The impact of demographic changes on the force of infection has been hypothesized for other diseases, but, to our knowledge, this is the first observation of this phenomenon. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary  相似文献   

2.
Abstract. The incidence of dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) in Thailand has increased cyclically since the first recognized outbreak in 1958. Without an effective vaccine against dengue, and considering the clinical difficulty of treating DHF cases, vector control is needed to prevent dengue transmission. Since the establishment of the WHO Aedes Research Unit in 1964, continued since 1973 as the WHO Collaborating Centre at the Department of Medical Research in Bangkok, much operational research has been carried out in Thailand on the bionomics and control of dengue vectors: Aedes aegypti and Ae.albopictus. This review shows that, as in most other countries, dengue vector control programmes in Thailand make little use of the procedures arising from research, nor have they reduced the upward trend of dengue or prevented DHF outbreaks. Implications of the reluctance to use results of operational research on vector control are considered and remedial suggestions made.  相似文献   

3.

Background

Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito-borne virus, and potentially fatal dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) occurs mainly in secondary infections. It recently was hypothesized that, due to the presence of cross-immunity, the relationship between the incidence of DHF and transmission intensity may be negative at areas of intense transmission. We tested this hypothesis empirically, using vector abundance as a surrogate of transmission intensity.

Methodology/Principal Findings

House Index (HI), which is defined as the percentage of households infested with vector larvae/pupae, was obtained from surveys conducted on one million houses in Thailand, between 2002 and 2004. First, the utility of HI as a surrogate of transmission intensity was confirmed because HI was correlated negatively with mean age of DHF in the population. Next, the relationship between DHF incidence and HI was investigated. DHF incidence increased only up to an HI of about 30, but declined thereafter. Reduction of HI from the currently maximal level to 30 would increase the incidence by more than 40%. Simulations, which implemented a recently proposed model for cross-immunity, generated results that resembled actual epidemiological data. It was predicted that cross-immunity generates a wide variation in incidence, thereby obscuring the relationship between incidence and transmission intensity. The relationship would become obvious only if data collected over a long duration (e.g., >10 years) was averaged.

Conclusion

The negative relationship between DHF incidence and dengue transmission intensity implies that in regions of intense transmission, insufficient reduction of vector abundance may increase long-term DHF incidence. Further studies of a duration much longer than the present study, are warranted.  相似文献   

4.
The nationwide COVID-19 epidemic ended in 2020, a few months after its outbreak in Wuhan, China at the end of 2019. Most COVID-19 cases occurred in Hubei Province, with a few local outbreaks in other provinces of China. A few studies have reported the early SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in several large cities or provinces of China. However, information regarding the early epidemics in small and medium-sized cities, where there are still traditionally large families and community culture is more strongly maintained and thus, transmission profiles may differ, is limited. In this study, we characterized 60 newly sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Anyang as a representative of small and medium-sized Chinese cities, compared them with more than 400 reference genomes from the early outbreak, and studied the SARS-CoV-2 transmission profiles. Genomic epidemiology revealed multiple SARS-CoV-2 introductions in Anyang and a large-scale expansion of the epidemic because of the large family size. Moreover, our study revealed two transmission patterns in a single outbreak, which were attributed to different social activities. We observed the complete dynamic process of single-nucleotide polymorphism development during community transmission and found that intrahost variant analysis was an effective approach to studying cluster infections. In summary, our study provided new SARS-CoV-2 transmission profiles representative of small and medium-sized Chinese cities as well as information on the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 strains during the early COVID-19 epidemic in China.  相似文献   

5.
Various simple mathematical models have been used to investigate dengue transmission. Some of these models explicitly model the mosquito population, while others model the mosquitoes implicitly in the transmission term. We study the impact of modeling assumptions on the dynamics of dengue in Thailand by fitting dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) data to simple vector–host and SIR models using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation. The parameter estimates obtained for both models were consistent with previous studies. Most importantly, model selection found that the SIR model was substantially better than the vector–host model for the DHF data from Thailand. Therefore, explicitly incorporating the mosquito population may not be necessary in modeling dengue transmission for some populations.  相似文献   

6.
Comparative nucleotide sequencing was carried out on dengue type 2 virus (DEN-2) strains isolated from patients in Northeast Thailand during the epidemic season in 1993. The patients exhibited different clinical manifestations ranging from dengue fever (DF) to dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF)/dengue shock syndrome (DSS). The results classified 19 DEN-2 strains into 3 subtypes according to nonsynonymous amino acid replacements. The strain isolated from a DSS patient eliciting secondary serological response belonged to subtype I, whereas 13 strains isolated from DHF patients with secondary response and 2 strains from DF patients with primary response belonged to subtype II. On the other hand, 3 strains isolated from DF cases evoking either primary or secondary response belonged to subtype III. These results suggest that subtype III virus infection could result in clinically milder manifestation irrespective of the serological response compared with subtype I or II viruses. The RNA secondary structure predicted for the 3' noncoding region showed 4 different structures (A, B, C, and D). The result also indicates that different subtypes of DEN-2 serotypes are circulating in a single epidemic in Thailand.  相似文献   

7.
Incidence of cholera outbreak is a serious issue in underdeveloped and developing countries. In Zimbabwe, after the massive outbreak in 2008–09, cholera cases and deaths are reported every year from some provinces. Substantial number of reported cholera cases in some provinces during and after the epidemic in 2008–09 indicates a plausible presence of seasonality in cholera incidence in those regions. We formulate a compartmental mathematical model with periodic slow-fast transmission rate to study such recurrent occurrences and fitted the model to cumulative cholera cases and deaths for different provinces of Zimbabwe from the beginning of cholera outbreak in 2008–09 to June 2011. Daily and weekly reported cholera incidence data were collected from Zimbabwe epidemiological bulletin, Zimbabwe Daily cholera updates and Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Zimbabwe (OCHA, Zimbabwe). For each province, the basic reproduction number () in periodic environment is estimated. To the best of our knowledge, this is probably a pioneering attempt to estimate in periodic environment using real-life data set of cholera epidemic for Zimbabwe. Our estimates of agree with the previous estimate for some provinces but differ significantly for Bulawayo, Mashonaland West, Manicaland, Matabeleland South and Matabeleland North. Seasonal trend in cholera incidence is observed in Harare, Mashonaland West, Mashonaland East, Manicaland and Matabeleland South. Our result suggests that, slow transmission is a dominating factor for cholera transmission in most of these provinces. Our model projects cholera cases and cholera deaths during the end of the epidemic in 2008–09 to January 1, 2012. We also determine an optimal cost-effective control strategy among the four government undertaken interventions namely promoting hand-hygiene & clean water distribution, vaccination, treatment and sanitation for each province.  相似文献   

8.
《Seminars in Virology》1994,5(2):133-145
The incidence of the mosquito-borne flavivirus diseases, yellow fever, dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever has increased dramatically in recent years. Both diseases are characterized by the emergence of explosive epidemics. Yellow fever outbreaks appear to have a periodicity dependent upon fluctuations in sylvatic (enzootic) transmission cycles and the ecological factors that influence these cycles. Spread of the virus from the sylvatic cycle to human settlements, ultimately with interhuman transmission by domestic Aedes aegypti is a repeating event in Africa, and presents a renewed threat in the Americas, where effective Ae. aegypti control collapsed in the 1970s. The incidence of dengue has also increased dramatically in recent years, with up to 80 million persons living in tropical regions of the world now affected annually—an attack rate of 4%. The severe form, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) has become a leading health problem throughout Asia in the last 20 years and is emerging as an epidemic disease in the Americas. Unlike yellow fever, sylvatic dengue transmission cycles are not responsible for disease emergence. The major factors underlying dengue epidemics are changes in human ecology, increasing contact with Ae. aegypti, the co-circulation of multiple dengue serotypes, and a rising prevalence of immunity and immunopathological events that underlie the pathogenesis of DHF. In this review, the complex interplay of virus, host, vector, environment and weather in the ecology of yellow fever and dengue are explored.  相似文献   

9.
Since the reinfestation of South American countries by Ae. aegypti, dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) have become a major public health concern. The aim of this paper was to review the information related with Aedes vectors and dengue in Argentina since the reintroduction of Ae. aegypti in 1986. The geographic distribution of Ae. albopictus is restricted to the Northeast, and that of Ae. aegypti has expanded towards the South and the West in comparison with the records during the eradication campaign in the 1960s. Since 1998, 4,718 DF cases have been reported concentrated in the provinces of Salta, Formosa, Misiones, Jujuy and Corrientes. Despite the circulation of three dengue virus serotypes (DENV-1, -2 and -3) in the North of the country, DHF has not occurred until the present. The information published over the last two decades regarding mosquito abundance, temporal variations, habitat characteristics, competition, and chemical and biological control, was reviewed. Considering the available information, issues pending in Argentina are discussed. The presence of three DENV, the potential spread of Ae. albopictus, and the predicted climate change suggest that dengue situation will get worse in the region. Research efforts should be increased in the Northern provinces, where DHF is currently an actual risk.  相似文献   

10.
During the 1981 dengue hemorrhagic fever/dengue shock syndrome (DHF/DSS) Cuban epidemic, bronchial asthma (BA) was frequently found as a personal or family antecedent in dengue hemorrhagic fever patients. Considering that antibody dependent enhancement (ADE) plays an important role in the etiopathogenic mechanism of DHF/DSS, we decide to study the Dengue 2 virus (D2V) capability of replication in peripheral blood leukocytes (PBL) from asthmatic patients and healthy persons. In 90% of asthmatic patients and 53.8% of control group it was obtained PBL with a significant D2V enhancing activity (X2 p < 0.01). Power enhancement was higher in asthmatic group. This is the first in vitro study relating BA and the dengue 2 virus immuno enhancement. The results obtained support the role of BA as a risk factor for DHF/DSS as already described on epidemiological data.  相似文献   

11.
BackgroundDengue is a major public health problem in Thailand, but data are often focused on certain dengue-endemic areas. Methods: To better understand dengue epidemiology and clinical characteristics in Thailand, a fever surveillance study was conducted among patients aged 1–55 years, who presented with non-localized febrile illness at Bang Phae Community Hospital in Ratchaburi province, Thailand from October 2011 to September 2016.ResultsAmong 951 febrile episodes, 130 were dengue-confirmed. Individuals aged 10–14 years were mostly affected, followed by those 15–19 years-of-age, with about 15% of dengue-confirmed cases from adults 25 years and older. There were annual peaks of dengue occurrence between June-November. Most prevalent serotype in circulation was DENV-2 in 2012, DENV-3 in 2014, and DENV-4 & -3 in 2015. Among dengue cases, 65% were accurately detected using the dengue NS1 RDT. Detection rate was similar between secondary and primary dengue cases where 66% of secondary vs. 60% of primary dengue cases had positive results on the NS1 RDT. Among dengue cases, 66% were clinically diagnosed with suspected dengue or DHF, prior to lab confirmation. Dengue was positively associated with rash, headache, hematemesis and alterations to consciousness, when compared to non-dengue. Dengue patients were 10.6 times more likely to be hospitalized, compared to non-dengue cases. Among dengue cases, 95 were secondary and 35 were primary infections. There were 8 suspected DHF cases and all were identified to be secondary dengue. Secondary dengue cases were 3.5 times more likely to be hospitalized compared to primary dengue cases. Although the majority of our dengue-positive patients were secondary dengue cases, with few patients showing manifestations of DHF, our dengue cases were mostly mild disease. Even among children < 10 years-of-age, 61% had secondary infection and the rate of secondary infection increased with age.ConclusionWhile the majority of dengue-confirmed cases were children, almost three-quarters of dengue-confirmed cases in this study were secondary dengue. Our study results consistent with previous data from the country confirm the hyperendemic transmission of DENV in Thailand, even in the non-epidemic years. With various interventions becoming available for dengue prevention and control, including dengue vaccines, decision-making on future implementation strategies should be based on such burden of disease data.  相似文献   

12.
SMV感染供试品种种子传毒率最高为29.60%,最低1.04%。SMV弱毒株系的传毒率高于其强毒株系。大豆品种营养生长的V_4时期以前感染SMV种子传毒率最高,花期感染种传率显著下降。供试品种中,有初花期感病种子即不传毒;有盛花期感病仍有很低的种传率;亦有结荚初期感病还有很低种传率的品种。SMV流行的收获种子传毒率高低主要取决于大豆营养生长和花期田间病株率的高低。根据品种间早期感染SMV的最高种传率不同、花期感染种传率显著下降的特性,建立了SMV田间流行的种子传毒率预测模型。  相似文献   

13.

Background

There is an urgent need to field test dengue vaccines to determine their role in the control of the disease. Our aims were to study dengue epidemiology and prepare the site for a dengue vaccine efficacy trial.

Methods and Findings

We performed a prospective cohort study of children in primary schools in central Thailand from 2006 through 2009. We assessed the epidemiology of dengue by active fever surveillance for acute febrile illness as detected by school absenteeism and telephone contact of parents, and dengue diagnostic testing. Dengue accounted for 394 (6.74%) of the 5,842 febrile cases identified in 2882, 3104, 2717 and 2312 student person-years over the four years, respectively. Dengue incidence was 1.77% in 2006, 3.58% in 2007, 5.74% in 2008 and 3.29% in 2009. Mean dengue incidence over the 4 years was 3.6%. Dengue virus (DENV) types were determined in 333 (84.5%) of positive specimens; DENV serotype 1 (DENV-1) was the most common (43%), followed by DENV-2 (29%), DENV-3 (20%) and DENV-4 (8%). Disease severity ranged from dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) in 42 (10.5%) cases, dengue fever (DF) in 142 (35.5%) cases and undifferentiated fever (UF) in 210 (52.5%) cases. All four DENV serotypes were involved in all disease severity. A majority of cases had secondary DENV infection, 95% in DHF, 88.7% in DF and 81.9% in UF. Two DHF (0.5%) cases had primary DENV-3 infection.

Conclusion

The results illustrate the high incidence of dengue with all four DENV serotypes in primary school children, with approximately 50% of disease manifesting as mild clinical symptoms of UF, not meeting the 1997 WHO criteria for dengue. Severe disease (DHF) occurred in one tenth of cases. Data of this type are required for clinical trials to evaluate the efficacy of dengue vaccines in large scale clinical trials.  相似文献   

14.
2019年12月,湖北省武汉市暴发了一种由新型冠状病毒引起的肺炎(COVID-19)随后蔓延到中国所有省区以及多个国家和地区,WHO宣布其为全球关注的突发公共卫生事件。及时了解和表征该病毒对抗击疫情至关重要。通过收集和梳理该疫情暴发之后2个月内全球多领域研究人员关于COVID-19的论文,发现这些研究主要集中在溯源分析、检测手段、病患治疗、临床表现、药物研发、致病机理、传播途径、流行特征等方面。该冠状病毒与蝙蝠冠状病毒以及穿山甲冠状病毒相关,其利用与SARS-CoV相同的人受体ACE2,感染途径证实为呼吸系统和消化系统。该病毒具有人际传播能力,并且出现无症状传播。COVID-19确诊病例多数与武汉有关,大多数为轻症,年老者病死率较高。快速灵敏核酸检测通常作为确诊依据,目前已经筛选出有价值的候选药物如瑞德西韦进行临床试验。中国采取的旅行禁令和隔离等干预措施有效减轻了疫情蔓延。  相似文献   

15.
BackgroundRabies in China remains a public health problem. In 2014, nearly one thousand rabies-related deaths were reported while rabies geographic distribution has expanded for the recent years. This report used surveillance data to describe the epidemiological characteristics of human rabies in China including determining high-risk areas and seasonality to support national rabies prevention and control activities.MethodsWe analyzed the incidence and distribution of human rabies cases in mainland China using notifiable surveillance data from 1960–2014, which includes a detailed analysis of the recent years from 2004 to 2014.ResultsFrom 1960 to 2014, 120,913 human rabies cases were reported in mainland China. The highest number was recorded in 1981(0.7/100,000; 7037 cases), and in 2007(0.3/100,000; 3300 cases). A clear seasonal pattern has been observed with a peak in August (11.0% of total cases), Human rabies cases were reported in all provinces with a yearly average of 2198 from 1960 to 2014 in China, while the east and south regions were more seriously affected compared with other regions. From2004 to 2014, although the number of cases decreased by 65.2% since 2004 from 2651 to 924 cases, reported areas has paradoxically expanded from 162 prefectures to 200 prefectures and from southern to the central and northern provinces of China. Farmers accounted most of the cases (65.0%); 50–59 age group accounted for the highest proportion (20.5%), and cases are predominantly males with a male-to-female ratio of 2.4:1 on average.ConclusionsDespite the overall steady decline of cases since the peak in 2007, the occurrence of cases in new areas and the spread trend were obvious in China in recent years. Further investigations and efforts are warranted in the areas have high rabies incidence to control rabies by interrupting transmission from dogs to humans and in the dog population. Furthermore, elimination of rabies should be eventually the ultimate goal for China.  相似文献   

16.
BackgroundTo facilitate the interpretation of meningococcal meningitis epidemiology in the “African meningitis belt”, we aimed at obtaining serogroup-specific pooled estimates of incidence, carriage and case-carrier ratios for meningococcal meningitis in the African meningitis belt and describe their variations across the endemic, hyperendemic and epidemic context.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies reporting serogroup-specific meningococcal meningitis monthly incidence and carriage in the same population and time period. Epidemiological contexts were defined as endemic (wet season, no epidemic), hyperendemic (dry season, no epidemic), and epidemic (dry season, epidemic).FindingsEight studies reporting a total of eighty pairs of serogroup-specific meningococcal meningitis incidence and carriage estimates were included in this review. For serogroup A, changes associated with the transition from endemic to hyperendemic incidence and from hyperendemic to epidemic incidence were 15-fold and 120-fold respectively. Changes in carriage prevalence associated with both transitions were 1-fold and 30-fold respectively.
For serogroup W and X, the transition from endemic to hyperendemic incidence involved a 4-fold and 1•1-fold increase respectively. Increases in carriage prevalence for the later transition were 7-fold and 1•7-fold respectively. No data were available for the hyperendemic-epidemic transition for these serogroups. Our findings suggested that the regular seasonal variation in serogroup A meningococcal meningitis incidence between the rainy and the dry season could be mainly driven by seasonal change in the ratio of clinical cases to subclinical infections. In contrast appearance of epidemic incidences is related to a substantial increase in transmission and colonisation and to lesser extent with changes in the case-carrier ratio.ConclusionSeasonal change in the rate of progression to disease given carriage together with variations in frequency of carriage transmission should be considered in models attempting to capture the epidemiology of meningococcal meningitis and mainly to predict meningitis epidemics in the African meningitis belt.  相似文献   

17.
BACKGROUND: Within the Philippines areas endemic for lymphatic filariasis are in regions with the highest incidence of poverty. Out of a total of 79 provinces, 39 have a higher poverty incidence than the national average and 30 of these 39 provinces are endemic for lymphatic filariasis. DISCUSSION: Recognizing that provinces endemic for lymphatic filariasis (LF) are also the poorest provinces, the elimination of lymphatic filariasis in these areas presents significant opportunities to reduce poverty and inequalities in health. The implementation of an effective national programme for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis will provide means for sustainable development at national, local and community levels. SUMMARY: The elimination of lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem is a 20-year strategic plan for the world community, with the vision of all endemic communities free of transmission of lymphatic filariasis by 2020 and with the commitment to ensure the delivery of quality technologies and human services to eliminate lymphatic filariasis worldwide through a multi-stakeholder global alliance of all endemic countries. This global goal of elimination of lymphatic filariasis is a significant opportunity for partnerships - a world with less poverty through sustainable development and free from the scourge of lymphatic filariasis.  相似文献   

18.

Background

The physiopathology of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), a severe form of Dengue Fever, is poorly understood. We are unable to identify patients likely to progress to DHF for closer monitoring and early intervention during epidemics, so most cases are sent home. This study explored whether patients with selected co-morbidities are at higher risk of developing DHF.

Methods

A matched case-control study was conducted in a dengue sero-positive population in two Brazilian cities. For each case of DHF, 7 sero-positive controls were selected. Cases and controls were interviewed and information collected on demographic and socio-economic status, reported co-morbidities (diabetes, hypertension, allergy) and use of medication. Conditional logistic regression was used to calculate the strength of the association between the co-morbidities and occurrence of DHF.

Results

170 cases of DHF and 1,175 controls were included. Significant associations were found between DHF and white ethnicity (OR = 4.70; 2.17–10.20), high income (OR = 6.84; 4.09–11.43), high education (OR = 4.67; 2.35–9.27), reported diabetes (OR = 2.75; 1.12–6.73) and reported allergy treated with steroids (OR = 2.94; 1.01–8.54). Black individuals who reported being treated for hypertension had 13 times higher risk of DHF then black individuals reporting no hypertension.

Conclusions

This is the first study to find an association between DHF and diabetes, allergy and hypertension. Given the high case fatality rate of DHF (1–5%), we believe that the evidence produced in this study, when confirmed in other studies, suggests that screening criteria might be used to identify adult patients at a greater risk of developing DHF with a recommendation that they remain under observation and monitoring in hospital.  相似文献   

19.
20.
摘要 目的:观察早期下床活动联合髋部周围肌肉抗阻训练对老年全髋关节置换术(THA)后患者髋关节功能和生活质量的影响。方法:选取我院2018年2月~2020年8月期间收治的老年THA患者83例。使用随机数字表法将患者分为对照组和联合组,例数分别为41例和42例,分别接受早期下床活动、早期下床活动联合髋部周围肌肉抗阻训练干预,对比两组睡眠质量、疼痛情况、生活自理能力、术后多个时点的髋关节功能评分、生活质量,并观察两组并发症发生情况。结果:两组干预后匹兹堡睡眠质量指数(PSQI)、视觉模拟评分法(VAS)评分较干预前下降,Barthel指数(BI)评分较干预前升高,且联合组的变化程度大于对照组(P<0.05)。两组术后1个月、3个月、6个月、12个月Harris人工髋关节功能评分逐渐升高,且联合组高于对照组(P<0.05)。两组干预后心理功能、物质生活状态、社会功能、躯体功能评分较干预前升高,且联合组的变化程度大于对照组(P<0.05)。两组并发症发生率组间对比无统计学差异(P>0.05)。结论:早期下床活动联合髋部周围肌肉抗阻训练可促进老年THA后患者髋关节功能恢复,减轻患者术后疼痛,改善睡眠质量,进而提高患者的生活质量,预防相关并发症的发生,改善预后。  相似文献   

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