Site-contingent responses to drought of core and relict Tetraclinis articulata populations from Morocco and Spain

The growth responses to climate variability are still unknown in locally threatened conifers from dry regions, but this information is necessary for improving the conservation of relict populations under increasing aridification. We characterized the radial growth patterns and responses to climate of Tetraclinis articulata, a Cupressaceae tree endemic to the western Mediterranean Basin, in a relict population located in southwestern Spain (Doñana) and two populations from the northern Morocco where the species core habitat is found (Tétouan, Ifarten). We assessed climate-growth relationships by using tree-ring width, climate data, drought and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices. Climate-growth analyses were refined using the climwin R package to select the most informative statistical models. The main climatic constraints of growth were inferred by using the process-based Vaganov-Shashkin (VS) model explicitly considering non-linear climate-growth relationships. Tetraclinis articulata growth was favored by wet conditions from the prior autumn to the spring of the growth year. In Doñana, warmer May conditions led to growth decline but this negative effect could be reversed by wet-warm conditions in the prior late autumn. Growth in the two Moroccan sites was constrained by 6- to 18-month long droughts peaking in summer, which account for cumulative water deficit since the previous autumn. Winter and early spring precipitation were the main climate drivers of growth in the Moroccan T. articulata populations, and their year-to-year variability was linked to the NAO. The VS model simulations showed that T. articulata growth is enhanced by wet soil conditions in late winter and early spring, probably recharging shallow soil water pools. The VS model also confirmed that warmer spring-summer conditions could amplify drought stress and threaten the long-term persistence of the relict Doñana population.     

Influences of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation on avian productivity in forests of the Pacific Northwest of North America

To model the effects of global climate phenomena on avian population dynamics, we must identify and quantify the spatial and temporal relationships between climate, weather and bird populations. Previous studies show that in Europe, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences winter and spring weather that in turn affects resident and migratory landbird species. Similarly, in North America, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) of the Pacific Ocean reportedly drives weather patterns that affect prey availability and population dynamics of landbird species which winter in the Caribbean. Here we show that ENSO‐ and NAO‐induced seasonal weather conditions differentially affect neotropical‐ and temperate‐wintering landbird species that breed in Pacific North‐west forests of North America. For neotropical species wintering in western Mexico, El Niño conditions correlate with cooler, wetter conditions prior to spring migration, and with high reproductive success the following summer. For temperate wintering species, springtime NAO indices correlate strongly with levels of forest defoliation by the larvae of two moth species and also with annual reproductive success, especially among species known to prey upon those larvae. Generalized linear models incorporating NAO indices and ENSO precipitation indices explain 50–90% of the annual variation in productivity reported for 10 landbird species. These results represent an important step towards spatially explicit modelling of avian population dynamics at regional scales.     

North Atlantic Oscillation influences on radial growth of Pinus pinea on the Italian mid-Tyrrhenian coast

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the most important source of winter atmospheric variability in the northern hemisphere. NAO inversely reflects the precipitation regime, which plays a fundamental role in Mediterranean regions, e.g., by recharging the water table. As no attempt has been made thus far to analyze the relationship between NAO variability and tree radial growth in coastal Mediterranean conifers, this paper identifies the monthly, winter, annual, and decadal influence of NAO on tree-ring chronologies of six planted Pinus pinea L. populations distributed along the Tyrrhenian coasts of central Italy. Through multidimensional analyses, we identified tree-ring chronology associations in two main groups. The influence of NAO on the regional chronologies was identified with correlation functions for the comparison period between 1949 and 2003 at both annual and decadal timescales. Results indicate that winter NAO influence on radial tree growth at annual and decadal timescales may depend on geographical location, site characteristics, and the age structure of tree-ring chronologies. These results contribute to a better understanding of the P. pinea coastal forest ecology and provide evidence of large-scale climatic forcings that influence forest Mediterranean ecosystems.     

The decline of Algerian Cedrus atlantica forests is driven by a climate shift towards drier conditions

Some north-African Atlas cedar (Cedrus atlantica) forests are in decline, following decades of anthropogenic pressure and repeated drought events. We investigated if the recent decline episodes of these forests are linked to precipitation and temperature shifts, leading to a reduction in tree radial growth and climate-growth uncouplings. Tree-ring width chronologies of Atlas cedar in north-western Algeria allow the identification of climate and growth shifts in these vulnerable Mediterranean forests. Such chronologies, built for six sites, showed common patterns of year-to-year variability during the period 1910-2006. The growth at north-facing sites declined from the 1980s until 2006, whereas the growth at mid-elevation sites declined from the early 20th century until the 1940s, remained stable until the 1980s and then declined until 2006. Cool and wet spring conditions enhanced cedar growth. Sites with fast-growing trees, where growth was strongly reduced by dry summer conditions, showed the most-pronounced negative trends. However, a clear climate-growth uncoupling was observed after the 1970s, when the climate rapidly warmed. We also detected a negative growth shift in the 1980s, when mortality increased. This coincided with changes in early-warning signals of the growth series, such as an increase in the first-order autocorrelation of tree-ring width. All these lines of evidence indicate that the 1980s climate shift towards warmer and drier conditions triggered a shift in cedar growth. The use of radial-growth series as early-warning signals should be further investigated in this species and in other drought-sensitive conifers, given the aridification trends expected for the Mediterranean Basin.     

Climate patterns and the stochastic dynamics of migratory birds

We analyse time series data of 17 bird species trapped at Ottenby Bird Observatory, Sweden, during spring migration 1972–1999. The species have similar demography but respond differently to variation in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) – a strong determinant of winter climate in the northern Hemisphere. Species wintering in northern Europe, compared to species having winter quarters in the Mediterranean area, tend to respond positively to variation in NAO. The variation within each group is high due to wide-ranging winter-distribution in many species, probably smoothing out the effect of spatial variation in NAO. Whereas mild winters (high NAO) is benign for many – but not all – birds wintering in northern Europe, the effect of drier-than-normal conditions in the Mediterranean area during high NAO index winters are uncertain. The work presented here goes beyond simple correlative studies and help identifying which species that are most affected by variation in winter climate. This is a first important step that calls for a more mechanistic approach when analysing possible changes to climate change.     

Seasonal precipitation and continentality drive bimodal growth in Mediterranean forests

Tree phenology is sensitive to climate warming and changes in seasonal precipitation. Long xylogenesis records are scarce, thus limiting our ability to analyse how radial growth responds to climate variability. Alternatively, process-based growth models can be used to simulate intra-annual growth dynamics and to better understand why growth bimodality varies along temperature and precipitation gradients. We used the Vaganov-Shashkin (VS) growth model to analyse the main climatic drivers of growth bimodality in eight trees and shrubs conifers (four pines and four junipers) across Spain. We selected eleven sites with different continentality degree and spring/autumn precipitation ratios since we expected to find pronounced bimodal growth in less continental sites with spring and autumn precipitation peaks. The VS model successfully simulated annual growth rates at all sites as a function of daily temperature and soil moisture data. Bimodal growth patterns clustered into less continental sites showing low spring/autumn precipitation ratios. This finding agrees with observed climate-growth associations showing that growth was enhanced by wet-cool winter-to-spring conditions, but also by wet autumn conditions in the most bimodal sites. We observed a stronger growth bimodality in pines compared to junipers. We discuss the spatial variability of climate drivers in bimodality growth pattern and how increasing continentality and shifts in seasonal precipitation could affect growth patterns. Bimodality could be an advantageous response to overcome summer drought in Mediterranean forests. The ability of some species to reactivate growth during autumn might determine their capacity to withstand increasing summer aridity.     

Wood density of silver fir reflects drought and cold stress across climatic and biogeographic gradients

Climate influences wood density and this relationship affects the ability of conifer forests to uptake and store carbon. Some conifer species can show mixed responses to long-term climate variability in their within-ring width and density patterns. Here we analyze if tree-ring width and density differently respond to seasonal climate variability in silver fir (Abies alba) forests from the Spanish Pyrenees subjected to cold and Mediterranean influences. In these forests, early growing-season dry conditions increase minimum wood density, possibly by reducing lumen diameter and lowering growth rates. Cold conditions during the late growing season are associated to a decrease in maximum wood density, probably through a reduction in the lignification and thickening rates of latewood tracheids. We test if these associations follow climatic and biogeographic patterns since the Mediterranean influence, characterized by late-summer storms which alleviate drought stress, is prevalent eastwards in this region. Silver-fir intra-annual width and wood density data showed mixed responses to climate. Minimum wood density negatively responded to spring precipitation, particularly in dry sites forming the southernmost distribution limit of the species. Maximum wood density positively responded to mean maximum temperatures and sunshine duration during late summer and early autumn, mainly in eastern sites subjected to a dominant Mediterranean influence where late-summer drought stress is expected to be low. More extreme climate conditions including dry spells could shift minimum wood density and reduce hydraulic conductivity and growth in conifer species as silver fir which dominate mesic sites. Warmer conditions would lead to denser latewood in silver fir if accompanied by longer durations of sunshine.     

Climate-growth relations of congeneric tree species vary across a tropical vegetation gradient in Brazil

Seasonally dry tropical forests are an important global climatic regulator, a main driver of the global carbon sink dynamics and are predicted to suffer future reductions in their productivity due to climate change. Yet, little is known about how interannual climate variability affects tree growth and how climate-growth responses vary across rainfall gradients in these forests. Here we evaluate changes in climate sensitivity of tree growth along an environmental gradient of seasonally dry tropical vegetation types (evergreen forest – savannah – dry forest) in Northeastern Brazil, using congeneric species of two common neotropical genera: Aspidosperma and Handroanthus. We built tree-ring width chronologies for each species × forest type combinations and explored how growth variability correlated with local (precipitation, temperature) and global (the El Niño Southern Oscillation - ENSO) climatic factors. We also assessed how growth sensitivity to climate and the presence of growth deviations varied along the gradient. Precipitation stimulates tree growth and was the main growth-influencing factor across vegetation types. Trees in the dry forest site showed highest growth sensitivity to interannual variation in precipitation. Temperature and ENSO phenomena correlated negatively with growth and sensitivity to both climatic factors were similar across sites. Negative growth deviations were present and found mostly in the dry-forest species. Our results reveal a dominant effect of precipitation on tree growth in seasonally dry tropical forests and suggest that along the gradient, dry forests are the most sensitivity to drought. These forests may therefore be the most vulnerable to the deleterious effects of future climatic changes. These results highlight the importance of understanding the climatic sensitivity of different tropical forests. This understanding is key to predict the carbon dynamics in tropical regions, and sensitivity differences should be considered when prioritizing conservation measures of seasonally dry topical forests.     

Spatial variation and temporal instability in climate-growth relationships of sessile oak (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Quercus petraea</Emphasis> [Matt.] Liebl.) under temperate conditions

Temporal instability of forest climate-growth relationships has been evidenced at high elevations and latitudes, and in Mediterranean contexts. Investigations under temperate conditions, where growth is under the control of both winter frost and summer water stress, are scarce and could provide valuable information about the ability of forest to cope with climate change. To highlight the main climatic factors driving the radial growth of Quercus petraea forests and to detect their possible evolutions over the last century, dendroecological analyses were performed along a longitudinal gradient of both decreasing summer water stress and increasing winter frost in northern France (from oceanic to semi-continental conditions). The climate-growth relationships were evaluated from 31 tree-ring chronologies (720 trees) through the calculation of moving correlation functions. Q. petraea displayed a rather low sensitivity to climate. High temperature in March and water stress from May to July appeared to be the main growth limiting factors. The sensitivity to winter precipitation and summer water stress decreased from oceanic to semi-continental conditions, whilst the correlation to winter frost tended to increase. Moving correlations revealed a general instability of climate-growth relationships, with a moderate synchronicity with climatic fluctuations. The main changes occurred during previous autumn for both temperature and precipitation whilst climatic trends were rather low or non-significant. The most coherent trends were pointed out (i) in April with a cooling (−0.9°C) leading to positive correlation to temperature at the end of the century, and (ii) in July with a decreasing inter-annual variability of precipitation resulting in a loss of correlation. On the contrary, the decreasing temperature and increasing precipitation in May and June led to few significant changes climate-growth relationships.     

A reversal of the shift towards earlier spring phenology in several Mediterranean reptiles and amphibians during the 1998–2013 warming slowdown

Herps, especially amphibians, are particularly susceptible to climate change, as temperature tightly controls many parameters of their biological cycle—above all, their phenology. The timing of herps’ activity or migration period—in particular the dates of their first appearance in spring and first breeding—and the shift to earlier dates in response to warming since the last quarter of the 20^th century has often been described up to now as a nearly monotonic trend towards earlier phenological events. In this study, we used citizen science data opportunistically collected on reptiles and amphibians in the northern Mediterranean basin over a period of 32 years to explore temporal variations in herp phenology. For 17 common species, we measured shifts in the date of the species’ first spring appearance—which may be the result of current changes in climate—and regressed the first appearance date against temperatures and precipitations. Our results confirmed the expected overall trend towards earlier first spring appearances from 1983 to 1997, and show that the first appearance date of both reptiles and amphibians fits well with the temperature in late winter. However, the trend towards earlier dates was stopped or even reversed in most species between 1998 and 2013. We interpret this reversal as a response to cooling related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the late winter and early spring. During the positive NAO episodes, for certain species only (mainly amphibians), the effect of a warm weather, which tends to advance the phenology, seems to be counterbalanced by the adverse effects of the relative dryness.     

Local and regional climate variables driving spring phenology of tortricid pests: a 36 year study

1. Insect phenology is driven by local climate variables, most notably temperature. Increased warming has been linked to advancements in critical phenophases such as the spring flight of reproductive adults in the mid‐Atlantic region of the U.S.A. 2. Local climate is governed by the fluctuations of large‐scale climate oscillations. In the northern hemisphere, both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) control the local autumn and winter severity. Low NAO and AO indices are associated with colder autumns and winters, which can delay spring phenology. 3. In this study, 36 years of data from experimental fruit orchards in Biglerville, Pennsylvania, were used to run partial least‐squares regressions in order to determine the climate variables related to the spring phenology of five tortricid pest species. 4. The phenology of the tortricid pests did not advance, even though there was evidence of warming at the research site. 5. Spring temperatures were found to be the most significant climate variables in determining the timing of the spring flights. However, autumn–winter temperatures were also important. 6. For the NAO and the AO, it was found that these oscillations affected the tortricid moths by influencing autumn–winter conditions. The oscillations of the NAO and AO can obscure long‐term changes in phenology. 7. These findings suggest that the inclusion of large‐scale climate oscillations can provide important insights into how climate conditions can influence insect phenology, and presents an opportunity for improving the ability to forecast spring emergence.     

Recent climate hiatus revealed dual control by temperature and drought on the stem growth of Mediterranean Quercus ilex

A better understanding of stem growth phenology and its climate drivers would improve projections of the impact of climate change on forest productivity. Under a Mediterranean climate, tree growth is primarily limited by soil water availability during summer, but cold temperatures in winter also prevent tree growth in evergreen forests. In the widespread Mediterranean evergreen tree species Quercus ilex, the duration of stem growth has been shown to predict annual stem increment, and to be limited by winter temperatures on the one hand, and by the summer drought onset on the other hand. We tested how these climatic controls of Q. ilex growth varied with recent climate change by correlating a 40‐year tree ring record and a 30‐year annual diameter inventory against winter temperature, spring precipitation, and simulated growth duration. Our results showed that growth duration was the best predictor of annual tree growth. We predicted that recent climate changes have resulted in earlier growth onset (?10 days) due to winter warming and earlier growth cessation (?26 days) due to earlier drought onset. These climatic trends partly offset one another, as we observed no significant trend of change in tree growth between 1968 and 2008. A moving‐window correlation analysis revealed that in the past, Q. ilex growth was only correlated with water availability, but that since the 2000s, growth suddenly became correlated with winter temperature in addition to spring drought. This change in the climate–growth correlations matches the start of the recent atmospheric warming pause also known as the ‘climate hiatus’. The duration of growth of Q. ilex is thus shortened because winter warming has stopped compensating for increasing drought in the last decade. Decoupled trends in precipitation and temperature, a neglected aspect of climate change, might reduce forest productivity through phenological constraints and have more consequences than climate warming alone.     

Evidence that the Montseny Mountains are still a good climatic refugium for the southernmost silver fir forest on the Iberian Peninsula

Many European temperate tree species reach their southern distribution limits in the Mediterranean region, and ongoing climate change will further restrict their climatic niche in this area. In this study, we investigated the effects of forest management and climate change on tree growth and the spatial extension of a silver fir forest (Abies alba Mill.) located at the species’ southern distribution limit on the Iberian Peninsula (Montseny Mountains Natural Park, Spain). Different growth variables such as tree-ring width (RW), basal area increment (BAI), earlywood width (EwW) and latewood width (LwW) were assessed, and climate-growth relationships were established for the period 1914–2010.Our results revealed that the main growth reductions and releases in the raw tree-ring width series were related to both volcanic activity and intensive logging. Since the establishment of the Natural Park in 1977, RW series have levelled off, and this has translated into an increase in BAI. This positive performance may have also facilitated the spatial expansion of the stand. Low precipitation during spring and summer was found to be the most limiting factor for tree growth during the period 1914–2010. Temperature had only a minor influence on tree growth. LwW was the growth variable most sensitive to climatic conditions. Such sensitivity explained the decreasing LwW trend since 1975. In contrast, EwW mostly depended on the previous year’s climatic conditions, and was not climatically limited during the growing season, resulting in an increasing trend over the study period. However, the temporal instability of most of these climate-growth relations indicated that climate change might have been beneficial for tree performance. Past logging events have fostered tree growth in the stand due to the increase in the availability of water, light, and nutrients, potentially alleviating the negative impacts of climate change. Furthermore, it is possible that the increase in the EwW improved water transport in the silver firs, which may also have helped them to endure ongoing climate change. Therefore, it is crucial to assess the role of forest management, as well as the potential acclimation of the tree species when considering the effects of climate change.     

Detecting snow-related signals in radial growth of Pinus uncinata mountain forests

Climate warming is responsible for observed reduction in snowpack depth and an earlier and faster melt-out in many mountains of the Northern Hemisphere. Such changes in mountain hydroclimate could negatively affect productivity and tree growth in high-elevation forests, but few studies have investigated how and where recent warming trends and changes in snow cover influence forest growth. A network comprising 36 high-elevation Pinus uncinata forests was sampled in the NE Iberian Peninsula, mainly across the Spanish Pyrenees, using dendrochronology to relate tree radial growth to a detailed air temperature and snow depth data. Radial growth was negatively influenced by a longer winter snow season and a higher late-spring snowpack depth. Notably, the effect of snow on tree growth was found regardless the widely reported positive effect of growing-season air temperatures on P. uncinata growth. No positive influence of moisture from spring snowmelt on annual growth of P. uncinata was detected in sampled forests. Tall trees showed a lower growth responsiveness to snow than small trees. Decreasing trends in winter and spring snow depths were detected at most Pyrenean forests, suggesting that the growth of high-elevation P. uncinata forests can beneficiate for a shallower and of shorter duration snowpack associated with warmer conditions. However, water-limited sites located on steep slopes or on rocky substrates, with poor soil-water holding capacity, could experience drought stress because of early depleted snow-related soil moisture.     

ENSO and NAO affect long‐term leaf litter dynamics and stoichiometry of Scots pine and European beech mixedwoods

Litterfall dynamics (production, seasonality and nutrient composition) are key factors influencing nutrient cycling. Leaf litter characteristics are modified by species composition, site conditions and water availability. However, significant evidence on how large‐scale, global circulation patterns affect ecophysiological processes at tree and ecosystem level remains scarce due to the difficulty in separating the combined influence of different factors on local climate and tree phenology. To fill this gap, we studied links between leaf litter dynamics with climate and other forest processes, such as tree‐ring width (TRW) and intrinsic water‐use efficiency (iWUE) in two mixtures of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in the south‐western Pyrenees. Temporal series (18 years) of litterfall production and elemental chemical composition were decomposed following the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method and relationships with local climate, large‐scale climatic indices, TRW and Scots pine's iWUE were assessed. Temporal trends in N:P ratios indicated increasing P limitation of soil microbes, thus affecting nutrient availability, as the ecological succession from a pine‐dominated to a beech‐dominated forest took place. A significant influence of large‐scale patterns on tree‐level ecophysiology was explained through the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on water availability. Positive NAO and negative ENSO were related to dry conditions and, consequently, to early needle shedding and increased N:P ratio of both species. Autumn storm activity appears to be related to premature leaf abscission of European beech. Significant cascading effects from large‐scale patterns on local weather influenced pine TRW and iWUE. These variables also responded to leaf stoichiometry fallen 3 years prior to tree‐ring formation. Our results provide evidence of the cascading effect that variability in global climate circulation patterns can have on ecophysiological processes and stand dynamics in mixed forests.     

Spring arrival response to climate change in birds: a case study from eastern Europe

This paper analyses the dependence of the first spring arrival dates of short/medium- and long-distance migrant bird species on climate warming in eastern Europe. The timing of arrival of the selected species at the observation site correlates with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, air temperature, atmospheric pressure, precipitation and wind characteristics. A positive correlation of fluctuations in winter and spring air temperatures with variations in the NAO index has been established in eastern Europe. Positive winter NAO index values are related to earlier spring arrival of birds in the eastern Baltic region and vice versa—arrival is late when the NAO index is negative. The impact of climate warming on the bird’s life cycle depends on local or regional climate characteristics. We tested the hypothesis that differences in climate indices between North Africa and Europe can influence the timing of spring arrival. Our results support the hypothesis that differences in first spring arrival dates between European populations occur after individuals cross the Sahara. We assume that the endogenous programme of migration control in short/medium-distance migrants synchronises with the changing environment on their wintering grounds and along their migration routes, whereas in long-distance migrants it is rather with environmental changes in the second part of their migratory route in Europe. Our results strongly indicate that the mechanism of dynamic balance in the interaction between the endogenous regulatory programme and environmental factors determines the pattern of spring arrival, as well as migration timing.     

East Atlantic teleconnection pattern and the decline of a common arctiid moth

Teleconnection patterns are large‐scale atmospheric circulation systems and variation in them is often associated with impacts on climate and weather over broad areas. Arctia caja L. is a well‐known, widespread and charismatic tiger moth. In recent decades, the abundance of A. caja in UK has fallen abruptly. The annual abundance of A. caja in UK is known to be affected adversely by wet winter weather and warm spring temperatures. We examined A. caja population dynamics from 1968 to 1999 for weather and climatological effects. Population growth rate displayed endogenous effects of abundance in the previous two seasons. Accounting for this, growth rate in the present season was still affected significantly by winter precipitation and spring temperature. Annual abundance of A. caja was inversely related to winter East Atlantic teleconnection pattern (winter EA index) and annual population growth rate was inversely related to winter EA in the present and previous two seasons. An index of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), commonly used as an indicator of winter climate in northern Europe, did not show a significant relationship with growth rate. We noted, for the first time, that the winter EA index has increased steadily over the past five decades. The model presented here therefore implies a further decline of A. caja population growth rates and abundance in the future. This is the first demonstration of a relationship between EA and population dynamics and indicates the EA and other lesser‐known teleconnection patterns may prove useful in modeling the ecological effects of climate change.     

Regime shifts of Mediterranean forest carbon uptake and reduced resilience driven by multidecadal ocean surface temperatures

The mechanisms translating global circulation changes into rapid abrupt shifts in forest carbon capture in semi‐arid biomes remain poorly understood. Here, we report unprecedented multidecadal shifts in forest carbon uptake in semi‐arid Mediterranean pine forests in Spain over 1950–2012. The averaged carbon sink reduction varies between 31% and 37%, and reaches values in the range of 50% in the most affected forest stands. Regime shifts in forest carbon uptake are associated with climatic early warning signals, decreased forest regional synchrony and reduced long‐term carbon sink resilience. We identify the mechanisms linked to ocean multidecadal variability that shape regime shifts in carbon capture. First, we show that low‐frequency variations of the surface temperature of the Atlantic Ocean induce shifts in the non‐stationary effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on regional forest carbon capture. Modelling evidence supports that the non‐stationary effects of ENSO can be propagated from tropical areas to semi‐arid Mediterranean biomes through atmospheric wave trains. Second, decadal changes in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) significantly alter sea–air heat exchanges, modifying in turn ocean vapour transport over land and land surface temperatures, and promoting sustained drought conditions in spring and summer that reduce forest carbon uptake. Third, we show that lagged effects of AMO on the winter North Atlantic Oscillation also contribute to the maintenance of long‐term droughts. Finally, we show that the reported strong, negative effects of ocean surface temperature (AMO) on forest carbon uptake in the last decades are unprecedented over the last 150 years. Our results provide new, unreported explanations for carbon uptake shifts in these drought‐prone forests and review the expected impacts of global warming on the profiled mechanisms.     

Large-scale climatic signatures in lakes across Europe: a meta-analysis

Recent studies have highlighted the impact of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on water temperature, ice conditions, and spring plankton phenology in specific lakes and regions in Europe. Here, we use meta-analysis techniques to test whether 18 lakes in northern, western, and central Europe respond coherently to winter climate forcing, and to assess the persistence of the winter climate signal in physical, chemical, and biological variables during the year. A meta-analysis approach was chosen because we wished to emphasize the overall coherence pattern rather than individual lake responses. A particular strength of our approach is that time-series from each of the 18 lakes were subjected to the same robust statistical analysis covering the same 23-year period. Although the strongest overall coherence in response to the winter NAO was exhibited by lake water temperatures, a strong, coherent response was also exhibited by concentrations of soluble reactive phosphorus and soluble reactive silicate, most likely as a result of the coherent response exhibited by the spring phytoplankton bloom. Lake nitrate concentrations showed significant coherence in winter. With the exception of the cyanobacterial biomass in summer, phytoplankton biomass in all seasons was unrelated to the winter NAO. A strong coherence in the abundance of daphnids during spring can most likely be attributed to coherence in daphnid phenology. A strong coherence in the summer abundance of the cyclopoid copepods may have been related to a coherent change in their emergence from resting stages. We discuss the complex nature of the potential mechanisms that drive the observed changes.