Volatile emissions from thawing permafrost soils are influenced by meltwater drainage conditions

Vast amounts of carbon are bound in both active layer and permafrost soils in the Arctic. As a consequence of climate warming, the depth of the active layer is increasing in size and permafrost soils are thawing. We hypothesize that pulses of biogenic volatile organic compounds are released from the near‐surface active layer during spring, and during late summer season from thawing permafrost, while the subsequent biogeochemical processes occurring in thawed soils also lead to emissions. Biogenic volatile organic compounds are reactive gases that have both negative and positive climate forcing impacts when introduced to the Arctic atmosphere, and the knowledge of their emission magnitude and pattern is necessary to construct reliable climate models. However, it is unclear how different ecosystems and environmental factors such as drainage conditions upon permafrost thaw affect the emission and compound composition. Here we show that incubations of frozen B horizon of the active layer and permafrost soils collected from a High Arctic heath and fen release a range of biogenic volatile organic compounds upon thaw and during subsequent incubation experiments at temperatures of 10°C and 20°C. Meltwater drainage in the fen soils increased emission rates nine times, while having no effect in the drier heath soils. Emissions generally increased with temperature, and emission profiles for the fen soils were dominated by benzenoids and alkanes, while benzenoids, ketones, and alcohols dominated in heath soils. Our results emphasize that future changes affecting the drainage conditions of the Arctic tundra will have a large influence on volatile emissions from thawing permafrost soils – particularly in wetland/fen areas.     

Plant carbon allocation drives turnover of old soil organic matter in permafrost tundra soils

Carbon cycle feedbacks from permafrost ecosystems are expected to accelerate global climate change. Shifts in vegetation productivity and composition in permafrost regions could influence soil organic carbon (SOC) turnover rates via rhizosphere (root zone) priming effects (RPEs), but these processes are not currently accounted for in model predictions. We use a radiocarbon (bomb‐¹⁴C) approach to test for RPEs in two Arctic tall shrubs, alder (Alnus viridis (Chaix) DC.) and birch (Betula glandulosa Michx.), and in ericaceous heath tundra vegetation. We compare surface CO₂ efflux rates and ¹⁴C content between intact vegetation and plots in which below‐ground allocation of recent photosynthate was prevented by trenching and removal of above‐ground biomass. We show, for the first time, that recent photosynthate drives mineralization of older (>50 years old) SOC under birch shrubs and ericaceous heath tundra. By contrast, we find no evidence of RPEs in soils under alder. This is the first direct evidence from permafrost systems that vegetation influences SOC turnover through below‐ground C allocation. The vulnerability of SOC to decomposition in permafrost systems may therefore be directly linked to vegetation change, such that expansion of birch shrubs across the Arctic could increase decomposition of older SOC. Our results suggest that carbon cycle models that do not include RPEs risk underestimating the carbon cycle feedbacks associated with changing conditions in tundra regions.     

Climate change feedbacks to microbial decomposition in boreal soils

Boreal ecosystems store 10–20 % of global soil carbon and may warm by 4–7 °C over the next century. Higher temperatures could increase the activity of boreal decomposers and indirectly affect decomposition through other ecosystem feedbacks. For example, permafrost melting will likely alleviate constraints on microbial decomposition and lead to greater soil CO₂ emissions. However, wet boreal ecosystems underlain by permafrost are often CH₄ sources, and permafrost thaw could ultimately result in drier soils that consume CH₄, thereby offsetting some of the greenhouse warming potential of soil CO₂ emissions. Climate change is also likely to increase winter precipitation and snow depth in boreal regions, which may stimulate decomposition by moderating soil temperatures under the snowpack. As temperatures and evapotranspiration increase in the boreal zone, fires may become more frequent, leading to additional permafrost loss from burned ecosystems. Although post-fire decomposition could also increase due to higher soil temperatures, reductions in microbial biomass and activity may attenuate this response. Other feedbacks such as soil drying, increased nutrient mineralization, and plant species shifts are either weak or uncertain. We conclude that strong positive feedbacks to decomposition will likely depend on permafrost thaw, and that climate feedbacks will probably be weak or negative in boreal ecosystems without permafrost. However, warming manipulations should be conducted in a broader range of boreal systems to validate these predictions.     

Relative impacts of disturbance and temperature: persistent changes in microenvironment and vegetation in retrogressive thaw slumps

In the Low Arctic, a warming climate is increasing rates of permafrost degradation and altering vegetation. Disturbance associated with warming permafrost can change microclimate and expose areas of ion-rich mineral substrate for colonization by plants. Consequently, the response of vegetation to warming air temperatures may differ significantly from disturbed to undisturbed tundra. Across a latitudinal air temperature gradient, we tested the hypothesis that the microenvironment in thaw slumps would be warmer and more nutrient rich than undisturbed tundra, resulting in altered plant community composition and increased green alder ( Alnus viridis subsp. fruticosa ) growth and reproduction. Our results show increased nutrient availability, soil pH, snow pack, ground temperatures, and active layer thickness in disturbed terrain and suggest that these variables are important drivers of plant community structure. We also found increased productivity, catkin production, and seed viability of green alder at disturbed sites. Altered community composition and enhancement of alder growth and reproduction show that disturbances exert a strong influence on deciduous shrubs that make slumps potential seed sources for undisturbed tundra. Overall, these results indicate that accelerated disturbance regimes have the potential to magnify the effects of warming temperature on vegetation. Consequently, understanding the relative effects of temperature and disturbance on Arctic plant communities is critical to predicting feedbacks between northern ecosystems and global climate change.     

Modelling past and future peatland carbon dynamics across the pan‐Arctic

The majority of northern peatlands were initiated during the Holocene. Owing to their mass imbalance, they have sequestered huge amounts of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. Although recent syntheses have filled some knowledge gaps, the extent and remoteness of many peatlands pose challenges to developing reliable regional carbon accumulation estimates from observations. In this work, we employed an individual‐ and patch‐based dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ‐GUESS) with peatland and permafrost functionality to quantify long‐term carbon accumulation rates in northern peatlands and to assess the effects of historical and projected future climate change on peatland carbon balance. We combined published datasets of peat basal age to form an up‐to‐date peat inception surface for the pan‐Arctic region which we then used to constrain the model. We divided our analysis into two parts, with a focus both on the carbon accumulation changes detected within the observed peatland boundary and at pan‐Arctic scale under two contrasting warming scenarios (representative concentration pathway—RCP8.5 and RCP2.6). We found that peatlands continue to act as carbon sinks under both warming scenarios, but their sink capacity will be substantially reduced under the high‐warming (RCP8.5) scenario after 2050. Areas where peat production was initially hampered by permafrost and low productivity were found to accumulate more carbon because of the initial warming and moisture‐rich environment due to permafrost thaw, higher precipitation and elevated CO₂ levels. On the other hand, we project that areas which will experience reduced precipitation rates and those without permafrost will lose more carbon in the near future, particularly peatlands located in the European region and between 45 and 55°N latitude. Overall, we found that rapid global warming could reduce the carbon sink capacity of the northern peatlands in the coming decades.     

Chemical characterization of dissolved organic matter in moist acidic tussock tundra soil using ultra-high resolution 15T FT-ICR mass spectrometry

Global warming is considered one of the most serious environmental issues, substantially mediating abrupt climate changes, and has stronger impacts in the Arctic ecosystems than in any other regions. In particular, thawing permafrost in the Arctic region with warming can be strongly contributing the emission of greenhouse gases (CO₂ and CH₄) that are produced from microbial decomposition of preserved soil organic matter (SOM) or are trapped in frozen permafrost soils, consequently accelerating global warming and abrupt climate changes. Therefore, understanding chemical and physical properties of permafrost SOM is important for interpreting the chemical and biological decomposability of SOM. In this study, we investigated dissolved organic matter (DOM) along the soil depth profile in moist acidic tussock tundra to better understand elemental compositions and distributions of the arctic SOM to evaluate their potential decomposability under climate change. To achieve ultra-high resolution mass profiles, the soil extracts were analyzed using a 15 Tesla Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometer in positive and negative ion modes via electrospray ionization. The results of this analysis revealed that the deeper organic soil (2Oe1 horizon) exhibits less CHON class and more aromatic class compounds compared to the surface organic soils, thus implying that the 2Oe1 horizon has undergone a more decomposition process and consequently possessed the recalcitrant materials. The compositional features of DOM in the Arctic tundra soils are important for understanding the changes in biogeochemical cycles caused from permafrost changes associated with global warming and climate change.     

Convergent ecosystem responses to 23‐year ambient and manipulated warming link advancing snowmelt and shrub encroachment to transient and long‐term climate–soil carbon feedback

Ecosystem responses to climate change can exert positive or negative feedbacks on climate, mediated in part by slow‐moving factors such as shifts in vegetation community composition. Long‐term experimental manipulations can be used to examine such ecosystem responses, but they also present another opportunity: inferring the extent to which contemporary climate change is responsible for slow changes in ecosystems under ambient conditions. Here, using 23 years of data, we document a shift from nonwoody to woody vegetation and a loss of soil carbon in ambient plots and show that these changes track previously shown similar but faster changes under experimental warming. This allows us to infer that climate change is the cause of the observed shifts in ambient vegetation and soil carbon and that the vegetation responses mediate the observed changes in soil carbon. Our findings demonstrate the realism of an experimental manipulation, allow attribution of a climate cause to observed ambient ecosystem changes, and demonstrate how a combination of long‐term study of ambient and experimental responses to warming can identify mechanistic drivers needed for realistic predictions of the conditions under which ecosystems are likely to become carbon sources or sinks over varying timescales.     

Effects of permafrost degradation on ecosystems

Permafrost, covering approximately 25% of the land area in the Northern Hemisphere, is one of the key components of terrestrial ecosystem in cold regions. As a product of cold climate, permafrost is extremely sensitive to climate change. Climate warming over past decades has caused degradation in permafrost widely and quickly. Permafrost degradation has the potential to significantly change soil moisture content, alter soil nutrients availability and influence on species composition. In lowland ecosystems the loss of ice-rich permafrost has caused the conversion of terrestrial ecosystem to aquatic ecosystem or wetland. In upland ecosystems permafrost thaw has resulted in replacement of hygrophilous community by xeromorphic community or shrub. Permafrost degradation resulting from climate warming may dramatically change the productivity and carbon dynamics of alpine ecosystems. This paper reviewed the effects of permafrost degradation on ecosystem structure and function. At the same time, we put forward critical questions about the effects of permafrost degradation on ecosystems on Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, included: (1) carry out research about the effects of permafrost degradation on grassland ecosystem and the response of alpine ecosystem to global change; (2) construct long-term and located field observations and research system, based on which predict ecosystem dynamic in permafrost degradation; (3) pay extensive attention to the dynamic of greenhouse gas in permafrost region on Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and the feedback of greenhouse gas to climate change; (4) quantitative study on the change of water-heat transport in permafrost degradation and the effects of soil moisture and heat change on vegetation growth.     

Decadal warming causes a consistent and persistent shift from heterotrophic to autotrophic respiration in contrasting permafrost ecosystems

Soil carbon in permafrost ecosystems has the potential to become a major positive feedback to climate change if permafrost thaw increases heterotrophic decomposition. However, warming can also stimulate autotrophic production leading to increased ecosystem carbon storage—a negative climate change feedback. Few studies partitioning ecosystem respiration examine decadal warming effects or compare responses among ecosystems. Here, we first examined how 11 years of warming during different seasons affected autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration in a bryophyte‐dominated peatland in Abisko, Sweden. We used natural abundance radiocarbon to partition ecosystem respiration into autotrophic respiration, associated with production, and heterotrophic decomposition. Summertime warming decreased the age of carbon respired by the ecosystem due to increased proportional contributions from autotrophic and young soil respiration and decreased proportional contributions from old soil. Summertime warming's large effect was due to not only warmer air temperatures during the growing season, but also to warmer deep soils year‐round. Second, we compared ecosystem respiration responses between two contrasting ecosystems, the Abisko peatland and a tussock‐dominated tundra in Healy, Alaska. Each ecosystem had two different timescales of warming (<5 years and over a decade). Despite the Abisko peatland having greater ecosystem respiration and larger contributions from heterotrophic respiration than the Healy tundra, both systems responded consistently to short‐ and long‐term warming with increased respiration, increased autotrophic contributions to ecosystem respiration, and increased ratios of autotrophic to heterotrophic respiration. We did not detect an increase in old soil carbon losses with warming at either site. If increased autotrophic respiration is balanced by increased primary production, as is the case in the Healy tundra, warming will not cause these ecosystems to become growing season carbon sources. Warming instead causes a persistent shift from heterotrophic to more autotrophic control of the growing season carbon cycle in these carbon‐rich permafrost ecosystems.     

Shifts of tundra bacterial and archaeal communities along a permafrost thaw gradient in Alaska

Understanding the response of permafrost microbial communities to climate warming is crucial for evaluating ecosystem feedbacks to global change. This study investigated soil bacterial and archaeal communities by Illumina MiSeq sequencing of 16S rRNA gene amplicons across a permafrost thaw gradient at different depths in Alaska with thaw progression for over three decades. Over 4.6 million passing 16S rRNA gene sequences were obtained from a total of 97 samples, corresponding to 61 known classes and 470 genera. Soil depth and the associated soil physical–chemical properties had predominant impacts on the diversity and composition of the microbial communities. Both richness and evenness of the microbial communities decreased with soil depth. Acidobacteria, Verrucomicrobia, Alpha‐ and Gamma‐Proteobacteria dominated the microbial communities in the upper horizon, whereas abundances of Bacteroidetes, Delta‐Proteobacteria and Firmicutes increased towards deeper soils. Effects of thaw progression were absent in microbial communities in the near‐surface organic soil, probably due to greater temperature variation. Thaw progression decreased the abundances of the majority of the associated taxa in the lower organic soil, but increased the abundances of those in the mineral soil, including groups potentially involved in recalcitrant C degradation (Actinomycetales, Chitinophaga, etc.). The changes in microbial communities may be related to altered soil C sources by thaw progression. Collectively, this study revealed different impacts of thaw in the organic and mineral horizons and suggests the importance of studying both the upper and deeper soils while evaluating microbial responses to permafrost thaw.     

Decade of experimental permafrost thaw reduces turnover of young carbon and increases losses of old carbon,without affecting the net carbon balance

Thicker snowpacks and their insulation effects cause winter‐warming and invoke thaw of permafrost ecosystems. Temperature‐dependent decomposition of previously frozen carbon (C) is currently considered one of the strongest feedbacks between the Arctic and the climate system, but the direction and magnitude of the net C balance remains uncertain. This is because winter effects are rarely integrated with C fluxes during the snow‐free season and because predicting the net C balance from both surface processes and thawing deep layers remains challenging. In this study, we quantified changes in the long‐term net C balance (net ecosystem production) in a subarctic peat plateau subjected to 10 years of experimental winter‐warming. By combining ²¹⁰Pb and ¹⁴Cdating of peat cores with peat growth models, we investigated thawing effects on year‐round primary production and C losses through respiration and leaching from both shallow and deep peat layers. Winter‐warming and permafrost thaw had no effect on the net C balance, but strongly affected gross C fluxes. Carbon losses through decomposition from the upper peat were reduced as thawing of permafrost induced surface subsidence and subsequent waterlogging. However, primary production was also reduced likely due to a strong decline in bryophytes cover while losses from the old C pool almost tripled, caused by the deepened active layer. Our findings highlight the need to estimate long‐term responses of whole‐year production and decomposition processes to thawing, both in shallow and deep soil layers, as they may contrast and lead to unexpected net effects on permafrost C storage.     

Ecosystem feedbacks and cascade processes: understanding their role in the responses of Arctic and alpine ecosystems to environmental change

Global environmental change, related to climate change and the deposition of airborne N‐containing contaminants, has already resulted in shifts in plant community composition among plant functional types in Arctic and temperate alpine regions. In this paper, we review how key ecosystem processes will be altered by these transformations, the complex biological cascades and feedbacks that might result, and some of the potential broader consequences for the earth system. Firstly, we consider how patterns of growth and allocation, and nutrient uptake, will be altered by the shifts in plant dominance. The ways in which these changes may disproportionately affect the consumer communities, and rates of decomposition, are then discussed. We show that the occurrence of a broad spectrum of plant growth forms in these regions (from cryptogams to deciduous and evergreen dwarf shrubs, graminoids and forbs), together with hypothesized low functional redundancy, will mean that shifts in plant dominance result in a complex series of biotic cascades, couplings and feedbacks which are supplemental to the direct responses of ecosystem components to the primary global change drivers. The nature of these complex interactions is highlighted using the example of the climate‐driven increase in shrub cover in low‐Arctic tundra, and the contrasting transformations in plant functional composition in mid‐latitude alpine systems. Finally, the potential effects of the transformations on ecosystem properties and processes that link with the earth system are reviewed. We conclude that the effects of global change on these ecosystems, and potential climate‐change feedbacks, cannot be predicted from simple empirical relationships between processes and driving variables. Rather, the effects of changes in species distributions and dominances on key ecosystem processes and properties must also be considered, based upon best estimates of the trajectories of key transformations, their magnitude and rates of change.     

Fire in Australian savannas: from leaf to landscape

Savanna ecosystems comprise 22% of the global terrestrial surface and 25% of Australia (almost 1.9 million km²) and provide significant ecosystem services through carbon and water cycles and the maintenance of biodiversity. The current structure, composition and distribution of Australian savannas have coevolved with fire, yet remain driven by the dynamic constraints of their bioclimatic niche. Fire in Australian savannas influences both the biophysical and biogeochemical processes at multiple scales from leaf to landscape. Here, we present the latest emission estimates from Australian savanna biomass burning and their contribution to global greenhouse gas budgets. We then review our understanding of the impacts of fire on ecosystem function and local surface water and heat balances, which in turn influence regional climate. We show how savanna fires are coupled to the global climate through the carbon cycle and fire regimes. We present new research that climate change is likely to alter the structure and function of savannas through shifts in moisture availability and increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, in turn altering fire regimes with further feedbacks to climate. We explore opportunities to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions from savanna ecosystems through changes in savanna fire management.     

The effect of fire and permafrost interactions on soil carbon accumulation in an upland black spruce ecosystem of interior Alaska: implications for post‐thaw carbon loss

High‐latitude regions store large amounts of organic carbon (OC) in active‐layer soils and permafrost, accounting for nearly half of the global belowground OC pool. In the boreal region, recent warming has promoted changes in the fire regime, which may exacerbate rates of permafrost thaw and alter soil OC dynamics in both organic and mineral soil. We examined how interactions between fire and permafrost govern rates of soil OC accumulation in organic horizons, mineral soil of the active layer, and near‐surface permafrost in a black spruce ecosystem of interior Alaska. To estimate OC accumulation rates, we used chronosequence, radiocarbon, and modeling approaches. We also developed a simple model to track long‐term changes in soil OC stocks over past fire cycles and to evaluate the response of OC stocks to future changes in the fire regime. Our chronosequence and radiocarbon data indicate that OC turnover varies with soil depth, with fastest turnover occurring in shallow organic horizons (～60 years) and slowest turnover in near‐surface permafrost (>3000 years). Modeling analysis indicates that OC accumulation in organic horizons was strongly governed by carbon losses via combustion and burial of charred remains in deep organic horizons. OC accumulation in mineral soil was influenced by active layer depth, which determined the proportion of mineral OC in a thawed or frozen state and thus, determined loss rates via decomposition. Our model results suggest that future changes in fire regime will result in substantial reductions in OC stocks, largely from the deep organic horizon. Additional OC losses will result from fire‐induced thawing of near‐surface permafrost. From these findings, we conclude that the vulnerability of deep OC stocks to future warming is closely linked to the sensitivity of permafrost to wildfire disturbance.     

Moving forward in global‐change ecology: capitalizing on natural variability

Natural resources managers are being asked to follow practices that accommodate for the impact of climate change on the ecosystems they manage, while global‐ecosystems modelers aim to forecast future responses under different climate scenarios. However, the lack of scientific knowledge about short‐term ecosystem responses to climate change has made it difficult to define set conservation practices or to realistically inform ecosystem models. Until recently, the main goal for ecologists was to study the composition and structure of communities and their implications for ecosystem function, but due to the probable magnitude and irreversibility of climate‐change effects (species extinctions and loss of ecosystem function), a shorter term focus on responses of ecosystems to climate change is needed. We highlight several underutilized approaches for studying the ecological consequences of climate change that capitalize on the natural variability of the climate system at different temporal and spatial scales. For example, studying organismal responses to extreme climatic events can inform about the resilience of populations to global warming and contribute to the assessment of local extinctions. Translocation experiments and gene expression are particular useful to quantitate a species' acclimation potential to global warming. And studies along environmental gradients can guide habitat restoration and protection programs by identifying vulnerable species and sites. These approaches identify the processes and mechanisms underlying species acclimation to changing conditions, combine different analytical approaches, and can be used to improve forecasts of the short‐term impacts of climate change and thus inform conservation practices and ecosystem models in a meaningful way.     

Climate change impacts on wildlife in a High Arctic archipelago – Svalbard,Norway

The Arctic is warming more rapidly than other region on the planet, and the northern Barents Sea, including the Svalbard Archipelago, is experiencing the fastest temperature increases within the circumpolar Arctic, along with the highest rate of sea ice loss. These physical changes are affecting a broad array of resident Arctic organisms as well as some migrants that occupy the region seasonally. Herein, evidence of climate change impacts on terrestrial and marine wildlife in Svalbard is reviewed, with a focus on bird and mammal species. In the terrestrial ecosystem, increased winter air temperatures and concomitant increases in the frequency of ‘rain‐on‐snow’ events are one of the most important facets of climate change with respect to impacts on flora and fauna. Winter rain creates ice that blocks access to food for herbivores and synchronizes the population dynamics of the herbivore–predator guild. In the marine ecosystem, increases in sea temperature and reductions in sea ice are influencing the entire food web. These changes are affecting the foraging and breeding ecology of most marine birds and mammals and are associated with an increase in abundance of several temperate fish, seabird and marine mammal species. Our review indicates that even though a few species are benefiting from a warming climate, most Arctic endemic species in Svalbard are experiencing negative consequences induced by the warming environment. Our review emphasizes the tight relationships between the marine and terrestrial ecosystems in this High Arctic archipelago. Detecting changes in trophic relationships within and between these ecosystems requires long‐term (multidecadal) demographic, population‐ and ecosystem‐based monitoring, the results of which are necessary to set appropriate conservation priorities in relation to climate warming.     

Soil organic matter molecular composition and state of decomposition in three locations of the European Arctic

Increased mineralization of the organic matter (OM) stored in permafrost is expected to constitute the largest additional global warming potential from terrestrial ecosystems exposed to a warmer climate. Chemical composition of permafrost OM is thought to be a key factor controlling the sensitivity of decomposition to warming. Our objective was to characterise OM from permafrost soils of the European Arctic: two mineral soils—Adventdalen, Svalbard, Norway and Vorkuta, northwest Russia—and a “palsa” (ice-cored peat mound patterning in heterogeneous permafrost landscapes) soil in Neiden, northern Norway, in terms of molecular composition and state of decomposition. At all sites, the OM stored in the permafrost was at an advanced stage of decomposition, although somewhat less so in the palsa peat. By comparing permafrost and active layers, we found no consistent effect of depth or permafrost on soil organic matter (SOM) chemistry across sites. The permafrost-affected palsa peat displayed better preservation of plant material in the deeper layer, as indicated by increasing contribution of lignin carbon to total carbon with depth, associated to decreasing acid (Ac) to aldehyde (Al) ratio of the syringyl (S) and vanillyl (V) units, and increasing S/V and contribution of plant-derived sugars. By contrast, in Adventdalen, the Ac/Al ratio of lignin and the Alkyl C to O-alkyl C ratio in the NMR spectra increased with depth, which suggests less oxidized SOM in the active layer compared to the permafrost layer. In Vorkuta, SOM characteristics in the permafrost profile did not change substantially with depth, probably due to mixing of soil layers by cryoturbation. The composition and state of decomposition of SOM appeared to be site-specific, in particular bound to the prevailing organic or mineral nature of soil when attempting to predict the SOM proneness to degradation. The occurrence of processes such as palsa formation in organic soils and cryoturbation should be considered when up-scaling and predicting the responses of OM to climate change in arctic soils.     

Spatial and temporal heterogeneity in climate change limits species' dispersal capabilities and adaptive potential

Global climate change has already caused local declines and extinctions. These losses are generally thought to occur because climate change is progressing too rapidly for populations to keep pace. Based on this hypothesis, numerous predictive frameworks have been developed to project future range shifts and changes in population dynamics resulting from global climate change. However, recent empirical work has demonstrated that seasonally asynchronous climate change regimes – when a region is warming during some parts of the year, but cooling in others – are constraining species' responses to climate change more strongly than rapid warming, leading to intra‐specific variation in responses to climate change and local population declines. Here, we couple a review of the literature related to asynchronous climate change regimes with meta‐population simulations and an analysis of long‐term North American climate trends to show that seasonally asynchronous regimes are occurring throughout most of North America and that their current spatial distribution may be a strong barrier to dispersal and gene flow across many species' ranges. Thus, even though adaptation to climate change may potentially be more common and rapid than previously thought, species whose ranges overlap with asynchronous regimes will likely succumb to local declines that may be difficult to mitigate via dispersal. Future climate‐related predictive frameworks should therefore incorporate asynchronous regimes as well as more traditional measures of climate velocity in order to fully capture the array of potential future climate change scenarios.     

Climatic and biotic extreme events moderate long‐term responses of above‐ and belowground sub‐Arctic heathland communities to climate change

Climate change impacts are not uniform across the Arctic region because interacting factors causes large variations in local ecosystem change. Extreme climatic events and population cycles of herbivores occur simultaneously against a background of gradual climate warming trends and can redirect ecosystem change along routes that are difficult to predict. Here, we present the results from sub‐Arctic heath vegetation and its belowground micro‐arthropod community in response to the two main drivers of vegetation damage in this region: extreme winter warming events and subsequent outbreaks of the defoliating autumnal moth caterpillar (Epirrita autumnata). Evergreen dwarf shrub biomass decreased (30%) following extreme winter warming events and again by moth caterpillar grazing. Deciduous shrubs that were previously exposed to an extreme winter warming event were not affected by the moth caterpillar grazing, while those that were not exposed to warming events (control plots) showed reduced (23%) biomass from grazing. Cryptogam cover increased irrespective of grazing or winter warming events. Micro‐arthropods declined (46%) following winter warming but did not respond to changes in plant community. Extreme winter warming and caterpillar grazing suppressed the CO₂ fluxes of the ecosystem. Evergreen dwarf shrubs are disadvantaged in a future sub‐Arctic with more stochastic climatic and biotic events. Given that summer warming may further benefit deciduous over evergreen shrubs, event and trend climate change may both act against evergreen shrubs and the ecosystem functions they provide. This is of particular concern given that Arctic heath vegetation is typically dominated by evergreen shrubs. Other components of the vegetation showed variable responses to abiotic and biotic events, and their interaction indicates that sub‐Arctic vegetation response to multiple pressures is not easy to predict from single‐factor responses. Therefore, while biotic and climatic events may have clear impacts, more work is needed to understand their net effect on Arctic ecosystems.     

The impacts of climate change and human activities on biogeochemical cycles on the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau

With a pace of about twice the observed rate of global warming, the temperature on the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau (Earth's ‘third pole’) has increased by 0.2 °C per decade over the past 50 years, which results in significant permafrost thawing and glacier retreat. Our review suggested that warming enhanced net primary production and soil respiration, decreased methane (CH₄) emissions from wetlands and increased CH₄ consumption of meadows, but might increase CH₄ emissions from lakes. Warming‐induced permafrost thawing and glaciers melting would also result in substantial emission of old carbon dioxide (CO₂) and CH₄. Nitrous oxide (N₂O) emission was not stimulated by warming itself, but might be slightly enhanced by wetting. However, there are many uncertainties in such biogeochemical cycles under climate change. Human activities (e.g. grazing, land cover changes) further modified the biogeochemical cycles and amplified such uncertainties on the plateau. If the projected warming and wetting continues, the future biogeochemical cycles will be more complicated. So facing research in this field is an ongoing challenge of integrating field observations with process‐based ecosystem models to predict the impacts of future climate change and human activities at various temporal and spatial scales. To reduce the uncertainties and to improve the precision of the predictions of the impacts of climate change and human activities on biogeochemical cycles, efforts should focus on conducting more field observation studies, integrating data within improved models, and developing new knowledge about coupling among carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus biogeochemical cycles as well as about the role of microbes in these cycles.