Long‐term change in a behavioural trait: truncated spawning distribution and demography in Northeast Arctic cod

Harvesting may be a potent driver of demographic change and contemporary evolution, which both may have great impacts on animal populations. Research has focused on changes in phenotypic traits that are easily quantifiable and for which time series exist, such as size, age, sex, or gonad size, whereas potential changes in behavioural traits have been under‐studied. Here, we analyse potential drivers of long‐term changes in a behavioural trait for the Northeast Arctic stock of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua, namely choice of spawning location. For 104 years (1866–1969), commercial catches were recorded annually and reported by county along the Norwegian coast. During this time period, spawning ground distribution has fluctuated with a trend towards more northerly spawning. Spawning location is analysed against a suite of explanatory factors including climate, fishing pressure, density dependence, and demography. We find that demography (age or age at maturation) had the highest explanatory power for variation in spawning location, while climate had a limited effect below statistical significance. As to potential mechanisms, some effects of climate may act through demography, and explanatory variables for demography may also have absorbed direct evolutionary change in migration distance for which proxies were unavailable. Despite these caveats, we argue that fishing mortality, either through demographic or evolutionary change, has served as an effective driver for changing spawning locations in cod, and that additional explanatory factors related to climate add no significant information.     

Effects of climate and demography on reproductive phenology of a harvested marine fish population

Shifts in phenology are a well‐documented ecological response to changes in climate, which may or may not be adaptive for a species depending on the climate sensitivity of other ecosystem processes. Furthermore, phenology may be affected by factors in addition to climate, which may accentuate or dampen climate‐driven phenological responses. In this study, we investigate how climate and population demographic structure jointly affect spawning phenology of a fish species of major commercial importance: walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus). We use 32 years of data from ichthyoplankton surveys to reconstruct timing of pollock reproduction in the Gulf of Alaska and find that the mean date of spawning has varied by over 3 weeks throughout the last >3 decades. Climate clearly drives variation in spawn timing, with warmer temperatures leading to an earlier and more protracted spawning period, consistent with expectations of advanced spring phenology under warming. However, the effects of temperature were nonlinear, such that additional warming above a threshold value had no additional effect on phenology. Population demographics were equally as important as temperature: An older and more age‐diverse spawning stock tended to spawn earlier and over a longer duration than a younger stock. Our models suggest that demographic shifts associated with sustainable harvest rates could shift the mean spawning date 7 days later and shorten the spawning season by 9 days relative to an unfished population, independent of thermal conditions. Projections under climate change suggest that spawn timing will become more stable for walleye pollock in the future, but it is unknown what the consequences of this stabilization will be for the synchrony of first‐feeding larvae with production of zooplankton prey in spring. With ongoing warming in the world’s oceans, knowledge of the mechanisms underlying reproductive phenology can improve our ability to monitor and manage species under changing climate conditions.     

On the spatial relationship between the spawning and feeding parts of the range of lumpfish Cyclopterus lumpus (Cyclopteridae) in the Barents Sea and adjacent waters (according to results of analysis of the size composition similarity)

Results of analysis of similarity of size series of mature females of the lumpfish Cyclopterus lumpus collected on the spawning grounds in the Barents and Norwegian seas (Russian and Norwegian coasts), as well as in the areas of its feeding, are provided. The trajectories of feeding migrations of lumpfish in the southern part of the Barents Sea have been revealed. A clinal decrease in the average length of females in the range from west to east is shown. The area of feeding aggregations of lumpfish spawning off the Russian coast is distinguished. The boundaries of the census water area used to assess the commercial stock of lumpfish and to determine the values of its possible catch off the coast of Murmansk are specified.     

Some issues related to reproduction of Pacific cod <Emphasis Type="Italic">Gadus macrocephalus</Emphasis> in waters of the eastern coast of the northern Kuril Islands and the southern extremity of Kamchatka

The analysis of data collected in December 1996 and 1998 on the reproduction of cod Gadus macrocephalus in Pacific waters of the northern Kuril Islands and the southern part of Kamchatka was performed. It was shown that the individual absolute fecundity of the cod varies within 0.197–9.729 million eggs and the relative fecundity, in the range of 24-1386 eggs. The fecundity of 1000 mature females comprises 2179–2449 million eggs. The low individual fecundity of fish is related to pseudobranchial tumor growth. The main role in cod reproduction is played by females of two-three size groups characterized by the highest numbers of mature females. It is suggested that different fecundity within the range of Pacific cod is related to environmental conditions, in particular, water temperature in the spawning grounds during spawning rather than to the habitation latitude.     

Shifting dynamic forces in fish stock fluctuations triggered by age truncation?

Accumulating evidence shows that environmental fluctuations and exploitation jointly affect marine fish populations, and understanding their interaction is a key issue for fisheries ecology. In particular, it has been proposed that age truncation induced by fisheries exploitation may increase the population's sensitivity to climate. In this study, we use unique long‐term abundance data for the Northeast Arctic stock of cod (Gadus morhua) and the Norwegian Spring‐Spawning stock of herring (Clupea harengus), which we analyze using techniques based on age‐structured population matrices. After identifying time periods with different age distributions in the spawning stock, we use linear models to quantify the relative effect of exploitation and temperature on the population growth rates. For the two populations, age truncation was found to be associated with an increasing importance of temperature and a relatively decreasing importance of exploitation, while the population growth rate became increasingly sensitive to recruitment variations. The results suggested that the removal of older age classes reduced the buffering capacity of the population, thereby making the population growth rate more dependent on recruitment than adult survival and increasing the effect of environmental fluctuations. Age structure appeared as a key characteristic that can affect the response of fish stocks to climate variations and its consequences may be of key importance for conservation and management.     

Evidence of Segregated Spawning in a Single Marine Fish Stock: Sympatric Divergence of Ecotypes in Icelandic Cod?

There is increasing recognition of intraspecific diversity and population structure within marine fish species, yet there is little direct evidence of the isolating mechanisms that maintain it or documentation of its ecological extent. We analyzed depth and temperature histories collected by electronic data storage tags retrieved from 104 Atlantic cod at liberty ≥1 year to evaluate a possible isolating mechanisms maintaining population structure within the Icelandic cod stock. This stock consists of two distinct behavioral types, resident coastal cod and migratory frontal cod, each occurring within two geographically distinct populations. Despite being captured together on the same spawning grounds, we show the behavioral types seem reproductively isolated by fine-scale differences in spawning habitat selection, primarily depth. Additionally, the different groups occupied distinct seasonal thermal and bathymetric niches that generally demonstrated low levels of overlap throughout the year. Our results indicate that isolating mechanisms, such as differential habitat selection during spawning, might contribute to maintaining diversity and fine-scale population structure in broadcast-spawning marine fishes.     

Resource‐driven colonization by cod in a high Arctic food web

1. Climate change is commonly associated with many species redistributions and the influence of other factors may be marginalized, especially in the rapidly warming Arctic.
2. The Barents Sea, a high latitude large marine ecosystem in the Northeast Atlantic has experienced above‐average temperatures since the mid‐2000s with divergent bottom temperature trends at subregional scales.
3. Concurrently, the Barents Sea stock of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua, one of the most important commercial fish stocks in the world, increased following a large reduction in fishing pressure and expanded north of 80°N.
4. We examined the influence of food availability and temperature on cod expansion using a comprehensive data set on cod stomach fullness stratified by subregions characterized by divergent temperature trends. We then tested whether food availability, as indexed by cod stomach fullness, played a role in cod expansion in subregions that were warming, cooling, or showed no trend.
5. The greatest increase in cod occupancy occurred in three northern subregions with contrasting temperature trends. Cod apparently benefited from initial high food availability in these regions that previously had few large‐bodied fish predators.
6. The stomach fullness in the northern subregions declined rapidly after a few years of high cod abundance, suggesting that the arrival of cod caused a top‐down effect on the prey base. Prolonged cod residency in the northern Barents Sea is, therefore, not a certainty.

     

Climate-Driven Ichthyoplankton Drift Model Predicts Growth of Top Predator Young

Climate variability influences seabird population dynamics in several ways including access to prey near colonies during the critical chick-rearing period. This study addresses breeding success in a Barents Sea colony of common guillemots Uria aalge where trophic conditions vary according to changes in the northward transport of warm Atlantic Water. A drift model was used to simulate interannual variations in transport of cod Gadus morhua larvae along the Norwegian coast towards their nursery grounds in the Barents Sea. The results showed that the arrival of cod larvae from southern spawning grounds had a major effect on the size of common guillemot chicks at fledging. Furthermore, the fraction of larvae from the south was positively correlated to the inflow of Atlantic Water into the Barents Sea thus clearly demonstrating the mechanisms by which climate-driven bottom-up processes influence interannual variations in reproductive success in a marine top predator.     

Stock collapse and its effect on species interactions: Cod and herring in the Norwegian‐Barents Seas system as an example

Both the Norwegian Spring Spawning herring (Clupea harengus) and the Northeast Arctic (NEA) cod (Gadus morhua) are examples of strong stock reduction and decline of the associated fisheries due to overfishing followed by a recovery. Cod and herring are both part of the Barents Sea ecosystem, which has experienced major warming events in the early (1920–1940) and late 20th century. While the collapse or near collapse of these stocks seems to be linked to an instability created by overfishing and climate, the difference of population dynamics before and after is not fully understood. In particular, it is unclear how the changes in population dynamics before and after the collapses are associated with biotic interactions. The combination of the availability of unique long‐term time series for herring and cod makes it a well‐suited study system to investigate the effects of collapse. We examine how species interactions may differently affect the herring and cod population dynamic before and after a collapse. Particularly we explore, using a GAM modeling approach, how herring could affect cod and vice versa. We found that the effect of cod biomass on herring that was generally positive (i.e., covariation) but the effect became negative after the collapse (i.e., predation or competition). Likewise a change occurred for the cod, the juvenile herring biomass that had no effect before the collapse had a negative effect after. Our results indicate that the population collapses may alter the inter‐specific interactions and response to abiotic environmental changes. While the stocks are at similar abundance levels before and after the collapses, the system is potentially different in its functioning and may require different management action.     

Climate change and fishing: a century of shifting distribution in North Sea cod

Globally, spatial distributions of fish stocks are shifting but although the role of climate change in range shifts is increasingly appreciated, little remains known of the likely additional impact that high levels of fishing pressure might have on distribution. For North Sea cod, we show for the first time and in great spatial detail how the stock has shifted its distribution over the past 100 years. We digitized extensive historical fisheries data from paper charts in UK government archives and combined these with contemporary data to a time‐series spanning 1913–2012 (excluding both World Wars). New analysis of old data revealed that the current distribution pattern of cod – mostly in the deeper, northern‐ and north‐easternmost parts of the North Sea – is almost opposite to that during most of the Twentieth Century – mainly concentrated in the west, off England and Scotland. Statistical analysis revealed that the deepening, northward shift is likely attributable to warming; however, the eastward shift is best explained by fishing pressure, suggestive of significant depletion of the stock from its previous stronghold, off the coasts of England and Scotland. These spatial patterns were confirmed for the most recent 3½ decades by data from fisheries‐independent surveys, which go back to the 1970s. Our results demonstrate the fundamental importance of both climate change and fishing pressure for our understanding of changing distributions of commercially exploited fish.     

Climate effects on size‐at‐age: growth in warming waters compensates for earlier maturity in an exploited marine fish

Over the past 3 decades, North Sea Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) have exhibited variable length‐at‐age along with declines in spawning stock biomass and timing of maturity. Multiple factors affecting growth and development in fish acted on this economically important stock over the same period including warming waters and an intensive fishery. Here, we employ North Sea cod as a model population, exploring how a physiologically relevant temperature metric (the growing degree‐day, GDD; °C day) can be used to compare year‐classes on a physiologically relevant time‐scale, disentangling influences of climate (thermal history) on observed length‐at‐age trends. We conclude that the trends in North Sea cod length‐at‐age observed during the last three decades can be explained by a combination of temperature‐dependent growth increases and a trend toward earlier maturation, the latter likely induced by the intensive fishing pressure, and possibly evidence of fisheries‐induced evolution.     

Long-term variations of biotic and abiotic conditions in the ecosystem of the Barents Sea

Synchronism of year-class strength was noted for the majority of commercial fish in the Barents Sea. The reason for this is probably connected with a common factor, namely the intensity of water inflow which influences spawning efficiency, zooplankton food production, fish larval drift to the feeding grounds, and consequent survival of juvenile fish. Consequently, the established regular relationships of hydrological and weather processes in the ecosystem can serve as basis for long-term fishing forecasts. The overall pattern of the Barents Sea water circulation, long-term climatic changes in this region, and their effect on the fish stock reproduction are considered, using Arctic cod as an example.     

A century of fish growth in relation to climate change,population dynamics and exploitation

Marine ecosystems, particularly in high‐latitude regions such as the Arctic, have been significantly affected by human activities and contributions to climate change. Evaluating how fish populations responded to past changes in their environment is helpful for evaluating their future patterns, but is often hindered by the lack of long‐term biological data available. Using otolith increments of Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) as a proxy for individual growth, we developed a century‐scale biochronology (1924–2014) based on the measurements of 3,894 fish, which revealed significant variations in cod growth over the last 91 years. We combined mixed‐effect modeling and path analysis to relate these growth variations to selected climate, population and fishing‐related factors. Cod growth was negatively related to cod population size and positively related to capelin population size, one of the most important prey items. This suggests that density‐dependent effects are the main source of growth variability due to competition for resources and cannibalism. Growth was also positively correlated with warming sea temperatures but negatively correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, suggesting contrasting effects of climate warming at different spatial scales. Fishing pressure had a significant but weak negative direct impact on growth. Additionally, path analysis revealed that the selected growth factors were interrelated. Capelin biomass was positively related to sea temperature and negatively influenced by herring biomass, while cod biomass was mainly driven by fishing mortality. Together, these results give a better understanding of how multiple interacting factors have shaped cod growth throughout a century, both directly and indirectly.     

Reproductive Schedules in Southern Bluefin Tuna: Are Current Assumptions Appropriate?

Southern bluefin tuna (SBT) appear to comprise a single stock that is assumed to be both mixed across its distribution and having reproductive adults that are obligate, annual spawners. The putative annual migration cycle of mature SBT consists of dispersed foraging at temperate latitudes with migration to a single spawning ground in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. Spawning migrations have been assumed to target two peaks in spawning activity; one in September-October and a second in February-March. SBT of sizes comparable to that of individuals observed on the spawning ground were satellite tagged in the Tasman Sea region (2003-2008) and demonstrated both migrations to the spawning grounds and residency in the Tasman Sea region throughout the whole year. All individuals undertaking apparent spawning migrations timed their movements to coincide with the second recognised spawning peak or even later. These observations suggest that SBT may demonstrate substantial flexibility in the scheduling of reproductive events and may even not spawn annually as currently assumed. Further, the population on the spawning grounds may be temporally structured in association with foraging regions. These findings provide new perspectives on bluefin population and spatial dynamics and warrant further investigation and consideration of reproductive schedules in this species.     

Thermal growth potential of Atlantic cod by the end of the 21st century

Ocean warming may lead to smaller body sizes of marine ectotherms, because metabolic rates increase exponentially with temperature while the capacity of the cardiorespiratory system to match enhanced oxygen demands is limited. Here, we explore the impact of rising sea water temperatures on Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), an economically important fish species. We focus on changes in the temperature‐dependent growth potential by a transfer function model combining growth observations with climate model ensemble temperatures. Growth potential is expressed in terms of asymptotic body weight and depends on water temperature. We consider changes between the periods 1985–2004 and 2081–2100, assuming that future sea water temperatures will evolve according to climate projections for IPCC AR5 scenario RCP8.5. Our model projects a response of Atlantic cod to future warming, differentiated according to ocean regions, leading to increases of asymptotic weight in the Barents Sea, while weights are projected to decline at the southern margin of the biogeographic range. Southern spawning areas will disappear due to thermal limitation of spawning stages. These projections match the currently observed biogeographic shifts and the temperature‐ and oxygen‐dependent decline in routine aerobic scope at southern distribution limits.     

Effects of river temperature and climate warming on stock‐specific survival of adult migrating Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka)

Mean summer water temperatures in the Fraser River (British Columbia, Canada) have increased by ～1.5 °C since the 1950s. In recent years, record high river temperatures during spawning migrations of Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) have been associated with high mortality events, raising concerns about long‐term viability of the numerous natal stocks faced with climate warming. In this study, the effect of freshwater thermal experience on spawning migration survival was estimated by fitting capture–recapture models to telemetry data collected for 1474 adults (captured in either the ocean or river between 2002 and 2007) from four Fraser River sockeye salmon stock‐aggregates (Chilko, Quesnel, Stellako‐Late Stuart and Adams). Survival of Adams sockeye salmon was the most impacted by warm temperatures encountered in the lower river, followed by that of Stellako‐Late Stuart and Quesnel. In contrast, survival of Chilko fish was insensitive to the encountered river temperature. In all stocks, in‐river survival of ocean‐captured sockeye salmon was higher than that of river‐captured fish and, generally, the difference was more pronounced under warm temperatures. The survival–temperature relationships for ocean‐captured fish were used to predict historic (1961–1990) and future (2010–2099) survival under simulated lower river thermal experiences for the Quesnel, Stellako‐Late Stuart and Adams stocks. A decrease of 9–16% in survival of all these stocks was predicted by the end of the century if the Fraser River continues to warm as expected. However, the decrease in future survival of Adams sockeye salmon would occur only if fish continue to enter the river abnormally early, towards warmer periods of the summer, as they have done since 1995. The survival estimates and predictions presented here are likely optimistic and emphasize the need to consider stock‐specific responses to temperature and climate warming into fisheries management and conservation strategies.     

Climate change and condition of herring (Clupea harengus) explain long-term trends in extent of skipped reproduction

It is commonly assumed that iteroparous fish, once mature, normally reproduce in all consecutive seasons. Recent work has suggested, however, that in Norwegian spring-spawning herring—a population that undertakes extensive spawning migrations—almost one in two adults may skip their second spawning migration. Why should herring not return to spawn the year after first spawning, but instead wait an extra year? For herring, participation in distant, energetically costly, and risky spawning migrations will only pay off in terms of fitness if individuals are sufficiently large, and in sufficient condition, to both successfully migrate and spawn. Changes in the environment and individual condition should therefore affect the likelihood of skipped spawning. This paper describes long-term changes in the extent to which the second reproductive season is skipped in this herring population. These are shown to be linked to the size and condition of herring as first-time spawners, and to climatic factors possibly related to food availability. The findings corroborate the hypothesis that skipped reproduction results from trade-offs between current and future reproduction, growth and survival.     

Food web dynamics affect Northeast Arctic cod recruitment

Proper management of ecosystems requires an understanding of both the species interactions as well as the effect of climate variation. However, a common problem is that the available time-series are of different lengths. Here, we present a general approach for studying the dynamic structure of such interactions. Specifically, we analyse the recruitment of the world's largest cod stock, the Northeast Arctic cod. Studies based on data starting in the 1970-1980s indicate that this stock is affected by temperature through a variety of pathways. However, the value of such studies is somewhat limited by the fact that they are based on a quite specific ecological and climatic situation. Recently, this stock has consisted of fairly young fish and the spawning stock has consisted of relatively few age groups. In this study, we develop a model for the effect of capelin (the cod's main prey) and herring on cod recruitment since 1973. Based on this model, we analyse data on cod, herring and temperature going back to 1921 and find that food-web effects explain a significant part of the cod recruitment variation back to around 1950.     

State-dependent spawning migration in Norwegian spring-spawning herring

Norwegian spring-spawning herring Clupea harengus winter in fjords of northern Norway, whereas the subsequent spawning occurs at various locations along the coast with a main bulk off the south-western coast. The distance of the southward spawning migration tends to increase with the length and condition of the fish. The costs and benefits of the southward migration were modelled in terms of fitness (number of surviving offspring). The model assumes that larvae have increasing growth and survival rates further south as they pass through warmer water during the northward drift in the coastal current. In agreement with the observed spawning distribution, optimal spawning grounds were predicted off the southwestern coast and farther south with increasing fish length and condition. The present study suggests that homing is not a successful strategy for these herring, and instead the selection of spawning grounds depends on individual internal state (length, condition), the cost of migration and the probability of larval survival.     

Seasonal movement and distribution of fluvial adult bull trout in selected watersheds in the mid-Columbia River and Snake River basins

From 1997 to 2004, we used radio telemetry to investigate movement and distribution patterns of 206 adult fluvial bull trout (mean, 449 mm FL) from watersheds representing a wide range of habitat conditions in northeastern Oregon and southwestern Washington, a region for which there was little previous information about this species. Migrations between spawning and wintering locations were longest for fish from the Imnaha River (median, 89 km) and three Grande Ronde River tributaries, the Wenaha (56 km) and Lostine (41 km) rivers and Lookingglass Creek (47 km). Shorter migrations were observed in the John Day (8 km), Walla Walla (20 km) and Umatilla river (22 km) systems, where relatively extensive human alterations of the riverscape have been reported. From November through May, fish displayed station-keeping behavior within a narrow range (basin medians, 0.5-6.2 km). Prespawning migrations began after snowmelt-driven peak discharge and coincided with declining flows. Most postspawning migrations began by late September. Migration rates of individuals ranged from 0.1 to 10.7 km/day. Adults migrated to spawning grounds in consecutive years and displayed strong fidelity to previous spawning areas and winter locations. In the Grande Ronde River basin, most fish displayed an unusual fluvial pattern: After exiting the spawning tributary and entering a main stem river, individuals moved upstream to wintering habitat, often a substantial distance (maximum, 49 km). Our work provides additional evidence of a strong migratory capacity in fluvial bull trout, but the short migrations we observed suggest adult fluvial migration may be restricted in basins with substantial anthropogenic habitat alteration. More research into bull trout ecology in large river habitats is needed to improve our understanding of how adults establish migration patterns, what factors influence adult spatial distribution in winter, and how managers can protect and enhance fluvial populations.