Long‐term mark‐and‐recapture study of a freshwater mussel reveals patterns of habitat use and an association between survival and river discharge

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Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species

Developing conservation strategies for threatened species increasingly requires understanding vulnerabilities to climate change, in terms of both demographic sensitivities to climatic and other environmental factors, and exposure to variability in those factors over time and space. We conducted a range‐wide, spatially explicit climate change vulnerability assessment for Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus), a declining endemic species in a region showing strong environmental change. Using active season and winter adult survival estimates derived from 17 data sets throughout the species' range, we identified demographic sensitivities to winter drought, maximum precipitation during the summer, and the proportion of the surrounding landscape dominated by agricultural and urban land cover. Each of these factors was negatively associated with active season adult survival rates in binomial generalized linear models. We then used these relationships to back‐cast adult survival with dynamic climate variables from 1950 to 2008 using spatially explicit demographic models. Demographic models for 189 population locations predicted known extant and extirpated populations well (AUC = 0.75), and models based on climate and land cover variables were superior to models incorporating either of those effects independently. These results suggest that increasing frequencies and severities of extreme events, including drought and flooding, have been important drivers of the long‐term spatiotemporal variation in a demographic rate. We provide evidence that this variation reflects nonadaptive sensitivity to climatic stressors, which are contributing to long‐term demographic decline and range contraction for a species of high‐conservation concern. Range‐wide demographic modeling facilitated an understanding of spatial shifts in climatic suitability and exposure, allowing the identification of important climate refugia for a dispersal‐limited species. Climate change vulnerability assessment provides a framework for linking demographic and distributional dynamics to environmental change, and can thereby provide unique information for conservation planning and management.     

Genomic patterns in the widespread Eurasian lynx shaped by Late Quaternary climatic fluctuations and anthropogenic impacts

Disentangling the contribution of long‐term evolutionary processes and recent anthropogenic impacts to current genetic patterns of wildlife species is key to assessing genetic risks and designing conservation strategies. Here, we used 80 whole nuclear genomes and 96 mitogenomes from populations of the Eurasian lynx covering a range of conservation statuses, climatic zones and subspecies across Eurasia to infer the demographic history, reconstruct genetic patterns, and discuss the influence of long‐term isolation and/or more recent human‐driven changes. Our results show that Eurasian lynx populations shared a common history until 100,000 years ago, when Asian and European populations started to diverge and both entered a period of continuous and widespread decline, with western populations, except Kirov, maintaining lower effective sizes than eastern populations. Population declines and increased isolation in more recent times probably drove the genetic differentiation between geographically and ecologically close westernmost European populations. By contrast, and despite the wide range of habitats covered, populations are quite homogeneous genetically across the Asian range, showing a pattern of isolation by distance and providing little genetic support for the several proposed subspecies. Mitogenomic and nuclear divergences and population declines starting during the Late Pleistocene can be mostly attributed to climatic fluctuations and early human influence, but the widespread and sustained decline since the Holocene is more probably the consequence of anthropogenic impacts which intensified in recent centuries, especially in western Europe. Genetic erosion in isolated European populations and lack of evidence for long‐term isolation argue for the restoration of lost population connectivity.     

Contrasting Demographic Structure of Short‐ and Long‐lived Pioneer Tree Species on Amazonian Forest Edges

Although tropical forests have been rapidly converted into human‐modified landscapes, tree species response to forest edges remains poorly examined. In this study, we addressed four pioneer tree species to document demographic shifts experienced by this key ecological group and make inferences about pioneer response to forest edges. All individuals with dbh ≥ 1 cm of two short‐lived (Bellucia grossularioides and Cecropia sciadophylla) and two long‐lived species (Goupia glabra and Laetia procera) were sampled in 20 1‐ha forest edge plots and 20 1‐ha forest interior plots in Oiapoque and Manaus, Northeast and Central Amazon, respectively. As expected, pioneer stem density with dbh ≥ 1 cm increased by around 10–17‐fold along forest edges regardless of species, lifespan, and study site. Edge populations of long‐lived pioneers presented 84–94 percent of their individuals in sapling/subadult size classes, whereas edge populations of short‐lived pioneers showed 56–97 percent of their individuals in adult size classes. These demographic biases were associated with negative and positive net adult recruitment of long‐ and short‐lived pioneers, respectively. Our population‐level analyses support three general statements: (1) native pioneer tree species proliferate along forest edges (i.e., increased density), at least in terms of non‐reproductive individuals; (2) pioneer response to edge establishment is not homogeneous as species differ in terms of demographic structure and net adult recruitment; and (3) some pioneer species, particularly long‐lived ones, may experience population decline due to adult sensitivity to edge‐affected habitats.     

Variations in age‐ and sex‐specific survival rates help explain population trend in a discrete marine mammal population

Understanding the drivers underlying fluctuations in the size of animal populations is central to ecology, conservation biology, and wildlife management. Reliable estimates of survival probabilities are key to population viability assessments, and patterns of variation in survival can help inferring the causal factors behind detected changes in population size. We investigated whether variation in age‐ and sex‐specific survival probabilities could help explain the increasing trend in population size detected in a small, discrete population of bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus off the east coast of Scotland. To estimate annual survival probabilities, we applied capture–recapture models to photoidentification data collected from 1989 to 2015. We used robust design models accounting for temporary emigration to estimate juvenile and adult survival, multistate models to estimate sex‐specific survival, and age models to estimate calf survival. We found strong support for an increase in juvenile/adult annual survival from 93.1% to 96.0% over the study period, most likely caused by a change in juvenile survival. Examination of sex‐specific variation showed weaker support for this trend being a result of increasing female survival, which was overall higher than for males and animals of unknown sex. Calf survival was lower in the first than second year; a bias in estimating third‐year survival will likely exist in similar studies. There was some support first‐born calf survival being lower than for calves born subsequently. Coastal marine mammal populations are subject to the impacts of environmental change, increasing anthropogenic disturbance and the effects of management measures. Survival estimates are essential to improve our understanding of population dynamics and help predict how future pressures may impact populations, but obtaining robust information on the life history of long‐lived species is challenging. Our study illustrates how knowledge of survival can be increased by applying a robust analytical framework to photoidentification data.     

Time and travelling costs during chick‐rearing in relation to habitat quality in Little Owls Athene noctua

In many bird species, parents adjust their home‐ranges during chick‐rearing to the availability and distribution of food resources, balancing the benefits of energy intake against the costs of travelling. Over recent decades, European agricultural landscapes have changed radically, resulting in the degradation of habitats and reductions in food resources for farmland birds. Lower foraging success and longer foraging trip distances that result from these changes are often assumed to reduce the reproductive performance of parents, although the mechanisms are not well understood. We tested the behavioural response of chick‐rearing Little Owls Athene noctua to variation in habitat diversity in an agricultural landscape. We equipped females with GPS loggers and received adequate range‐use data for 19 individuals (6063–14 439 locations per bird). In habitats dominated by homogeneous cropland habitats, home‐ranges were over 12 ha in size, whereas in highly diverse habitats they were below 2 ha. Large home‐ranges were associated with increased flight activity (117% of that of birds in small home‐ranges) and distances travelled per night (152%), increased duration of foraging trips (169%) covering larger distances (246%), and reduced nest visiting rates (81%). The study therefore provides strong correlative evidence that Little Owls breeding in monotonous farmland habitats expend more time and energy for a lower benefit in terms of feeding rates than do birds in more heterogeneous landscapes. As nestling food supply is the main determinant of chick survival, these results suggest a strong impact of farmland characteristics on local demographic rates. We suggest that preserving and creating islands of high habitat diversity within uniform open agricultural landscapes should be a key target in the conservation of Little Owl populations.     

Demographic consequences of habitat loss and crowding in large carnivores: A natural experiment

Habitat loss is one of largest threats to the persistence of large carnivore populations. However, because most large carnivores are long‐lived, cryptic and wide‐ranging, few studies examine the demographic consequences of habitat loss, and the resultant crowding that ensues, on these species. We used long‐term data to examine the demographic responses of an African lion (Panthera leo) population to flooding‐induced habitat loss in a seasonal wetland, the Okavango Delta, during a transition from low to high annual flooding patterns. We found that intraspecific competition reduced cub survival and that this effect was exacerbated by habitat loss and consequent crowding. The proportion of cubs recorded in the population also declined as crowding increased, and both the survival of cubs and proportion of cubs recorded declined as prey abundance decreased. Apparent sub‐adult survival declined with increasing pride size, but this likely reflects emigration rather than mortality. Adult survival remained relatively constant throughout the study period, a population response which is important in buffering populations against short‐term fluctuations in ecological conditions. As many large carnivore populations face future habitat loss, it is important that we understand the demographic consequences of habitat loss in order to better mitigate its effects in the future.     

Inter‐annual variability and long‐term trends in breeding success in a declining population of migratory swans

Population declines among migratory Arctic‐breeding birds are a growing concern for conservationists. To inform the conservation of these declining populations, we need to understand how demographic rates such as breeding success are influenced by combinations of extrinsic and intrinsic factors. In this study we examined inter‐annual variation and long‐term trends in two aspects of the breeding success of a migratory herbivore, the Bewick's swan Cygnus columbianus bewickii, which is currently undergoing a population decline: 1) the percentage of young within the wintering population and 2) mean brood size. We used an information‐theoretic approach to test how these two measures of productivity were influenced over a 26 yr period by 12 potential explanatory variables, encompassing both environmental (e.g. temperature) and intrinsic (e.g. pair‐bond duration) factors. Swan productivity exhibited sensitivity to both types of explanatory variable. Fewer young were observed on the wintering grounds in years in which the breeding period (May to September) was colder and predator (Arctic fox) abundance was higher. The percentage of young within the wintering population also showed negative density‐dependence. Inter‐annual variance in mean swan brood size was best explained by a model comprised of the negative degree days during the swan breeding period, mean pair‐bond duration of all paired swans (i.e. mean pair duration), and an interaction between these two variables. In particular, mean pair duration had a strong positive effect on mean brood size. However, we found no long‐term directional trend in either measure of breeding success, despite the recent decline in the NW European population. Our results highlight that inter‐annual variability in breeding success is sensitive to the combined effects of both intrinsic and extrinsic factors.     

Large‐scale predator control increases population viability of a rare New Zealand riverine duck

The introduction of mammalian predators to oceanic islands has led to dramatic declines in the abundance of many native species. Conservation management of these species often relies on low‐cost predator control techniques that can be implemented over large scales. Assessing the effectiveness of such management techniques is difficult, but using population viability analyses (PVA), which identify the population growth rate (λ) and extinction risk of threatened species, may offer a solution. PVA provide the opportunity to compare the relative effectiveness of various management options and can identify knowledge gaps to prioritize research efforts. We used PVA to assess the population viability of whio (Hymenolaimus malacorhynchos), a rare riverine duck endemic to New Zealand. Current populations are threatened by introduced mammalian predators and are rapidly declining in both distribution and abundance. Whio conservation management is dominated by large‐scale, low‐intensity predator control, targeting introduced stoats (Mustela erminea). There is evidence that such control increases whio productivity but it is unknown if this increase is sufficient for long‐term population persistence. We undertook a stochastic PVA to assess the viability of whio populations under different management scenarios using data obtained from a 6‐year study of whio demographic responses to predator control. Populations with no predator control and low productivity will rapidly decline to extinction. Increasing productivity through predator control increased population viability but populations still showed a declining trajectory. A perturbation analysis showed that the growth rate of whio populations was largely driven by adult survival. Therefore, future research should target obtaining more robust estimates of adult survival, particularly how it is affected by predator control. Overall, our analysis indicated that large‐scale predator control increases the short‐term viability of whio populations but is insufficient for long‐term population persistence.     

Density‐dependent survival and recruitment in a long‐distance Palaearctic migrant,the Sand Martin Riparia riparia

Long‐term studies can provide powerful insights into the relative importance of different demographic and environmental factors determining avian population dynamics. Here we use 23 years of capture–mark–recapture data (1981–2003) to estimate recruitment and survival rates for a Sand Martin Riparia riparia population in Cheshire, NW England. Inter‐annual variation in recruitment and adult survival was positively related to rainfall in the sub‐Saharan wintering grounds, but unrelated to weather conditions on the breeding grounds. After allowing for the effects of African rainfall, both demographic rates were negatively density‐dependent: adult survival was related to the size of the western European Sand Martin population (probably reflecting competition for resources in the shared wintering grounds) while recruitment was related to the size of the local study population in Cheshire (potentially reflecting competition for nesting sites or food). Local population size was more sensitive to variation in adult survival than to variation in recruitment, and an increase in population size after 1995 was driven mainly by the impact of more favourable conditions in the African wintering grounds on survival rates of adults. Overwinter survival in this long‐distance Palaearctic migrant is determined partly by the amount of suitable wetland foraging habitat in the sub‐Saharan wintering grounds (which is limited by the extent of summer rainfall) and partly by the number of birds exploiting that habitat.     

An integrated modeling approach to estimating Gunnison sage‐grouse population dynamics: combining index and demographic data

Evaluation of population dynamics for rare and declining species is often limited to data that are sparse and/or of poor quality. Frequently, the best data available for rare bird species are based on large‐scale, population count data. These data are commonly based on sampling methods that lack consistent sampling effort, do not account for detectability, and are complicated by observer bias. For some species, short‐term studies of demographic rates have been conducted as well, but the data from such studies are typically analyzed separately. To utilize the strengths and minimize the weaknesses of these two data types, we developed a novel Bayesian integrated model that links population count data and population demographic data through population growth rate (λ) for Gunnison sage‐grouse (Centrocercus minimus). The long‐term population index data available for Gunnison sage‐grouse are annual (years 1953–2012) male lek counts. An intensive demographic study was also conducted from years 2005 to 2010. We were able to reduce the variability in expected population growth rates across time, while correcting for potential small sample size bias in the demographic data. We found the population of Gunnison sage‐grouse to be variable and slightly declining over the past 16 years.     

Assessing Extinction Risk in Small Metapopulations of Golden‐headed Lion Tamarins (Leontopithecus chrysomelas) in Bahia State,Brazil

Golden‐headed lion tamarins (GHLTs; Leontopithecus chrysomelas) are endangered primates endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, where loss of forest and its connectivity threaten species survival. Understanding the role of habitat availability and configuration on population declines is critical for guiding proactive conservation for this, and other, endangered species. We conducted population viability analysis to assess vulnerability of ten GHLT metapopulations to habitat loss and small population size. Seven metapopulations had a low risk of extirpation (or local extinction) over the next 100 years assuming no further forest loss, and even small populations could persist with immediate protection. Three metapopulations had a moderate/high risk of extirpation, suggesting extinction debt may be evident in parts of the species’ range. When deforestation was assumed to continue at current rates, extirpation risk significantly increased while abundance and genetic diversity decreased for all metapopulations. Extirpation risk was significantly negatively correlated with the size of the largest patch available to metapopulations, underscoring the importance of large habitat patches for species persistence. Finally, we conducted sensitivity analysis using logistic regression, and our results showed that local extinction risk was sensitive to percentage of females breeding, adult female mortality, and dispersal rate and survival; conservation or research programs that target these aspects of the species’ biology/ecology could have a disproportionately important impact on species survival. We stress that efforts to protect populations and tracts of habitat of sufficient size throughout the species’ distribution will be important in the near‐term to protect the species from continuing decline and extinction.     

Long‐term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia): survey methods,data management,and long‐term population trends

Long‐term observational studies conducted at large (regional) spatial scales contribute to better understanding of landscape effects on population and evolutionary dynamics, including the conditions that affect long‐term viability of species, but large‐scale studies are expensive and logistically challenging to keep running for a long time. Here, we describe the long‐term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) that has been conducted since 1991 in a large network of 4000 habitat patches (dry meadows) within a study area of 50 by 70 km in the Åland Islands in Finland. We explain how the landscape structure has been described, including definition, delimitation, and mapping of the habitat patches; methods of field survey, including the logistics, cost, and reliability of the survey; and data management using the EarthCape biodiversity platform. We describe the long‐term metapopulation dynamics of the Glanville fritillary based on the survey. There has been no long‐term change in the overall size of the metapopulation, but the level of spatial synchrony and hence the amplitude of fluctuations in year‐to‐year metapopulation dynamics have increased over the years, possibly due to increasing frequency of exceptional weather conditions. We discuss the added value of large‐scale and long‐term population studies, but also emphasize the need to integrate more targeted experimental studies in the context of long‐term observational studies. For instance, in the case of the Glanville fritillary project, the long‐term study has produced an opportunity to sample individuals for experiments from local populations with a known demographic history. These studies have demonstrated striking differences in dispersal rate and other life‐history traits of individuals from newly established local populations (the offspring of colonizers) versus individuals from old, established local populations. The long‐term observational study has stimulated the development of metapopulation models and provided an opportunity to test model predictions. This combination of empirical studies and modeling has facilitated the study of key phenomena in spatial dynamics, such as extinction threshold and extinction debt.     

Extinction,reintroduction, and restoration of a lizard meta‐population equilibrium in the missouri ozarks

In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Neuwald & Templeton (2013) report on a 22‐year study of natural populations of Collared Lizards (Crotaphytus collaris) that evolved on isolated on rock outcrops (‘glades’) in the Ozark Mountains in eastern Missouri. This ecosystem was originally maintained by frequent fires that kept the forest understory open, but fire‐suppression was adopted as official policy in about 1945, which led to a loss of native biodiversity, including local extinctions of some lizard populations. Policies aimed at restoring biodiversity included controlled burns and re‐introductions of lizards to some glades, which began in 1984. Populations were monitored from 1984–2006, and demographic and genetic data collected from 1 679 lizards were used to documents shifts in meta‐population dynamics over four distinct phases of lizard recovery: 1–an initial translocation of lizards drawn from the same source populations onto three glades that were likely part of one meta‐population; 2–a period of isolation and genetic drift associated with the absence of fires; 3–a period of rapid colonization and population increase following restoration of fire; and 4–stabilization of the meta‐population under regular prescribed burning. This study system thus provides a rare opportunity to characterize the dynamics of a landscape‐scale management strategy on the restoration of the meta‐population of a reintroduced species; long‐term case studies of the extinction, founding, increase, and stabilization of a well‐defined meta‐population, based on both demographic and population genetic data, are rare in the conservation, ecological, and evolutionary literature.     

Whole‐genome resequencing reveals the pleistocene temporal dynamics of Branchiostoma belcheri and Branchiostoma floridae populations

Global climatic fluctuations governed the ancestral demographic histories of species and contributed to place the current population status into a more extensive ecological and evolutionary context. Genetic variations will leave unambiguous signatures in the patterns of intraspecific genetic variation in extant species since the genome of each individual is an imperfect mosaic of the ancestral genomes. Here, we report the genome sequences of 20 Branchiostoma individuals by whole‐genome resequencing strategy. We detected over 140 million genomic variations for each Branchiostoma individual. In particular, we applied the pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent (PSMC) method to estimate the trajectories of changes in the effective population size (N_e) of Branchiostoma population during the Pleistocene. We evaluated the threshold of sequencing depth for proper inference of demographic histories using PSMC was ≥25×. The PSMC results highlight the role of historical global climatic fluctuations in the long‐term population dynamics of Branchiostoma. The inferred ancestral N_e of the Branchiostoma belcheri populations from Zhanjiang and Xiamen (China) seawaters was different in amplitude before the first (mutation rate = 3 × 10^?9) or third glaciation (mutation rate = 9 × 10^?9) of the Pleistocene, indicating that the two populations most probably started to evolve in isolation in their respective seas after the first or third glaciation of the Pleistocene. A pronounced population bottleneck coinciding with the last glacial maximum was observed in all Branchiostoma individuals, followed by a population expansion occurred during the late Pleistocene. Species that have experienced long‐term declines may be especially vulnerable to recent anthropogenic activities. Recently, the industrial pollution and the exploitation of sea sand have destroyed the harmonious living environment of amphioxus species. In the future, we need to protect the habitat of Branchiostoma and make full use of these detected genetic variations to facilitate the functional study of Branchiostoma for adaptation to local environments.     

Long‐term population dynamics reveal that survival and recruitment of tropical boobies improve after a hurricane

Variability in population numbers is a central issue in evolutionary ecology and also in biodiversity conservation. However, for most seabirds this information is lacking and tropical populations are virtually unstudied. Long‐term studies are warranted because world's seabird populations exhibit an overall declining trend since 1950. Using data spanning 23 yr, we investigated how adult survival, local recruitment, and their relative contributions to population growth (λ) vary over time in the blue‐footed booby Sula nebouxii, a long‐lived locally foraging seabird that breeds in tropical waters. In addition, we investigated whether booby demographic rates exhibit the same declining trend observed in other seabirds, whether these rates are impacted by hurricanes, and whether these potential impacts differ between sexes. Our analysis of 4608 capture–recapture histories revealed that survival and recruitment were nearly equal between males and females, exhibited a declining trend over the last 23 yr, and in both sexes, these vital rates improved after a hurricane. The declining trend in recruitment was slightly more attenuated in males. These results add to the current evidence for an overall declining trend in world's seabird populations and extend its confirmation to the warm eastern tropical Pacific. Moreover, they provide the first evidence that hurricanes may favor natural populations. As a result of the declining trend and variation in survival and recruitment, λ exhibited a slight decline and substantial variation over the 23 yr. However, most λ values were equal to or higher than 1, and the long‐term average indicates population increase. The ability of blue‐footed boobies to maintain a positive population balance despite of negative trends in their vital rates might result from canalization of adult survival (the vital rate that contributes most to λ and shows lower variation compared to recruitment) against environmental variability.     

A first assessment of genetic variability in the Eurasian Stone‐curlew Burhinus oedicnemus

The Eurasian Stone‐curlew is a species of conservation concern in Europe. We investigate for the first time the extent of population structure among populations sampled from six geographical areas, representing four subspecies inhabiting the western part of the species' distribution. Neither mitochondrial nor nuclear markers fully supported current subspecies boundaries. However, both markers support significant differentiation of the Canary Island populations from those sampled from the Mediterranean. Further work is needed to establish the taxonomic status of this potentially distinct Macaronesian taxon. More broadly, further genetic research is required to design and implement an effective conservation plan for this species.     

Long‐term ecological data for conservation: Range change in the black‐billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) in northeast China (1970s–2070s)

Long‐term ecological data can be an effective tool to help ecologists integrate future projections with historical contexts and provide unique insights into the long‐term dynamics of endangered species. However, hampered by data limitations, including incomplete and spatially biased data, relatively few studies have used multidecadal datasets or have examined changes in biogeography from a historical perspective. The black‐billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) is a large capercaillie (classified as Least Concern [LC] on the IUCN red list) that has undergone a dramatic decline in population during the late 20th century and is considered endangered. Its conservation status is pessimistic, and the species requires immediate protection. Therefore, we supplemented a historical dataset to identify changes in this bird's range and population in northeast China over the long term. The study area spanned Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province, and the northeast corner of Inner Mongolia in northeast China. We integrated an ecological niche model (BIOMOD2) with long‐term ecological data on this species to estimate the magnitude of change in distribution over time. Our results revealed a 35.25% reduction in the current distribution of this species compared to their potential distribution in the 1970s. This decline is expected to continue under climate change. For example, the future range loss was estimated to be 38.79 ± 0.22% (8.64–90.19%), and the actual state could be worse, because the baseline range of the model was greater than the real range in the 2000s, showing a 12.39% overestimation. To overcome this poor outlook, a conservation strategy should be established in sensitive areas, including the southwestern Greater Khingan Mountains and northern Lesser Khingan Mountains. Actions that should be considered include field investigations, establishing a monitor network, designing ecological corridors, and cooperating with local inhabitants, governments, and conservation biologists to improve the conservation of the black‐billed capercaillie.     

Detection of barriers to dispersal is masked by long lifespans and large population sizes

Population genetic analyses of species inhabiting fragmented landscapes are essential tools for conservation. Occasionally, analyses of fragmented populations find no evidence of isolation, even though a barrier to dispersal is apparent. In some cases, not enough time may have passed to observe divergence due to genetic drift, a problem particularly relevant for long‐lived species with overlapping generations. Failing to consider this quality during population structure analyses could result in incorrect conclusions about the impact of fragmentation on the species. We designed a model to explore how lifespan and population size influence perceived population structure of isolated populations over time. This iterative model tracked how simulated populations of variable lifespan and population size were affected by drift alone, using a freshwater mussel, Quadrula quadrula (mapleleaf), as a model system. In addition to exhibiting dramatic lifespan variability among species, mussels are also highly imperiled and exhibit fragmentation by dams throughout the range of many species. Results indicated that, unless population size was small (<50 individuals) or lifespan short (<22 years), observing genetic divergence among populations was unlikely. Even if wild populations are isolated, observing population structure in long‐lived mussels from modern damming practices is unlikely because it takes longer for population structure to develop in these species than most North American dams have existed. Larger population sizes and longer lifespans increase the time needed for significant divergence to occur. This study helps illuminate the factors that influence genetic responses by populations to isolation and provides a useful model for conservation‐oriented research.     

A preliminary population viability analysis of the critically endangered blue‐eyed black lemur (Eulemur flavifrons)

Population viability analysis is an important tool to assess the extinction risk in small populations of highly specialized primates. The blue‐eyed black lemur (Eulemur flavifrons) is critically endangered with a restricted range in the north‐western dry deciduous forest of Madagascar, where habitat fragmentation and loss of forest connectivity threaten its survival. We performed a population viability analysis (PVA) of this lemur in Ankarafa Forest in the Sahamalaza Peninsula National Park, north‐western Madagascar, to determine the demographic parameters most influential for population persistence and to assess extinction probabilities. We conducted PVA analyses using different demographic parameters which characterize the species including reproduction, lifespan and population size using the software VORTEX for six scenarios with 100 iterations and simulated over 100 years. The simulations suggested the first extinction within 13 years when the percentage of habitat destruction increased up to 12%. Severe habitat destruction such as fire and logging was the major cause which led to the risk of population extinction. Conservation strategies, in particular measures to reduce habitat destruction, are proposed to ensure the survival of this critically endangered lemur.