CO2 exchange and evapotranspiration across dryland ecosystems of southwestern North America

Global‐scale studies suggest that dryland ecosystems dominate an increasing trend in the magnitude and interannual variability of the land CO₂ sink. However, such analyses are poorly constrained by measured CO₂ exchange in drylands. Here we address this observation gap with eddy covariance data from 25 sites in the water‐limited Southwest region of North America with observed ranges in annual precipitation of 100–1000 mm, annual temperatures of 2–25°C, and records of 3–10 years (150 site‐years in total). Annual fluxes were integrated using site‐specific ecohydrologic years to group precipitation with resulting ecosystem exchanges. We found a wide range of carbon sink/source function, with mean annual net ecosystem production (NEP) varying from ‐350 to +330 gCm^?2 across sites with diverse vegetation types, contrasting with the more constant sink typically measured in mesic ecosystems. In this region, only forest‐dominated sites were consistent carbon sinks. Interannual variability of NEP, gross ecosystem production (GEP), and ecosystem respiration (R_eco) was larger than for mesic regions, and half the sites switched between functioning as C sinks/C sources in wet/dry years. The sites demonstrated coherent responses of GEP and NEP to anomalies in annual evapotranspiration (ET), used here as a proxy for annually available water after hydrologic losses. Notably, GEP and R_eco were negatively related to temperature, both interannually within site and spatially across sites, in contrast to positive temperature effects commonly reported for mesic ecosystems. Models based on MODIS satellite observations matched the cross‐site spatial pattern in mean annual GEP but consistently underestimated mean annual ET by ~50%. Importantly, the MODIS‐based models captured only 20–30% of interannual variation magnitude. These results suggest the contribution of this dryland region to variability of regional to global CO₂ exchange may be up to 3–5 times larger than current estimates.     

Effects of 21st‐century climate,land use,and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California

Terrestrial ecosystems are an important sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), sequestering ~30% of annual anthropogenic emissions and slowing the rise of atmospheric CO₂. However, the future direction and magnitude of the land sink is highly uncertain. We examined how historical and projected changes in climate, land use, and ecosystem disturbances affect the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in California over the period 2001–2100. We modeled 32 unique scenarios, spanning 4 land use and 2 radiative forcing scenarios as simulated by four global climate models. Between 2001 and 2015, carbon storage in California's terrestrial ecosystems declined by ?188.4 Tg C, with a mean annual flux ranging from a source of ?89.8 Tg C/year to a sink of 60.1 Tg C/year. The large variability in the magnitude of the state's carbon source/sink was primarily attributable to interannual variability in weather and climate, which affected the rate of carbon uptake in vegetation and the rate of ecosystem respiration. Under nearly all future scenarios, carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems was projected to decline, with an average loss of ?9.4% (?432.3 Tg C) by the year 2100 from current stocks. However, uncertainty in the magnitude of carbon loss was high, with individual scenario projections ranging from ?916.2 to 121.2 Tg C and was largely driven by differences in future climate conditions projected by climate models. Moving from a high to a low radiative forcing scenario reduced net ecosystem carbon loss by 21% and when combined with reductions in land‐use change (i.e., moving from a high to a low land‐use scenario), net carbon losses were reduced by 55% on average. However, reconciling large uncertainties associated with the effect of increasing atmospheric CO₂ is needed to better constrain models used to establish baseline conditions from which ecosystem‐based climate mitigation strategies can be evaluated.     

Long‐term antagonistic effect of increased precipitation and nitrogen addition on soil respiration in a semiarid steppe

Changes in water and nitrogen (N) availability due to climate change and atmospheric N deposition could have significant effects on soil respiration, a major pathway of carbon (C) loss from terrestrial ecosystems. A manipulative experiment simulating increased precipitation and atmospheric N deposition has been conducted for 9 years (2005–2013) in a semiarid grassland in Mongolian Plateau, China. Increased precipitation and N addition interactively affect soil respiration through the 9 years. The interactions demonstrated that N addition weakened the precipitation‐induced stimulation of soil respiration, whereas increased precipitation exacerbated the negative impacts of N addition. The main effects of increased precipitation and N addition treatment on soil respiration were 15.8% stimulated and 14.2% suppressed, respectively. Moreover, a declining pattern and 2‐year oscillation were observed for soil respiration response to N addition under increased precipitation. The dependence of soil respiration upon gross primary productivity and soil moisture, but not soil temperature, suggests that resources C substrate supply and water availability are more important than temperature in regulating interannual variations of soil C release in semiarid grassland ecosystems. The findings indicate that atmospheric N deposition may have the potential to mitigate soil C loss induced by increased precipitation, and highlight that long‐term and multi‐factor global change studies are critical for predicting the general patterns of terrestrial C cycling in response to global change in the future.     

The response of soil respiration to precipitation change is asymmetric and differs between grasslands and forests

Intensification of the Earth's hydrological cycle amplifies the interannual variability of precipitation, which will significantly impact the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle. However, it is still unknown whether previously observed relationship between soil respiration (R_s) and precipitation remains applicable under extreme precipitation change. By analyzing the observations from a much larger dataset of field experiments (248 published papers including 151 grassland studies and 97 forest studies) across a wider range of precipitation manipulation than previous studies, we found that the relationship of R_s response with precipitation change was highly nonlinear or asymmetric, and differed significantly between grasslands and forests, between moderate and extreme precipitation changes. Response of R_s to precipitation change was negatively asymmetric (concave‐down) in grasslands, and double‐asymmetric in forests with a positive asymmetry (concave‐up) under moderate precipitation changes and a negative asymmetry (concave‐down) under extreme precipitation changes. In grasslands, the negative asymmetry in R_s response was attributed to the higher sensitivities of soil moisture, microbial and root activities to decreased precipitation (DPPT) than to increased precipitation (IPPT). In forests, the positive asymmetry was predominantly driven by the significant increase in microbial respiration under moderate IPPT, while the negative asymmetry was caused by the reductions in root biomass and respiration under extreme DPPT. The different asymmetric responses of R_s between grasslands and forests will greatly improve our ability to forecast the C cycle consequences of increased precipitation variability. Specifically, the negative asymmetry of R_s response under extreme precipitation change suggests that the soil C efflux will decrease across grasslands and forests under future precipitation regime with more wet and dry extremes.     

Remotely Sensed Interannual Variations and Trends in Terrestrial Net Primary Productivity 1981–2000

Spatial and temporal variations in net primary production (NPP) are of great importance to ecological studies, natural resource management, and terrestrial carbon sink estimates. However, most of the existing estimates of interannual variation in NPP at regional and global scales were made at coarse resolutions with climate-driven process models. In this study, we quantified global NPP variation at an 8 km and 10-day resolution from 1981 to 2000 based on satellite observations. The high resolution was achieved using the GLObal Production Efficiency Model (GLO-PEM), which was driven with variables derived almost entirely from satellite remote sensing. The results show that there was an increasing trend toward enhanced terrestrial NPP that was superimposed on high seasonal and interannual variations associated with climate variability and that the increase was occurring in both northern and tropical latitudes. NPP generally decreased in El Niño season and increased in La Niña seasons, but the magnitude and spatial pattern of the response varied widely between individual events. Our estimates also indicate that the increases in NPP during the period were caused mainly by increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide and precipitation. The enhancement of NPP by warming was limited to northern high latitudes (above 50°N); in other regions, the interannual variations in NPP were correlated negatively with temperature and positively with precipitation.     

Global‐scale impacts of nitrogen deposition on tree carbon sequestration in tropical,temperate, and boreal forests: A meta‐analysis

Elevated nitrogen (N) deposition may increase net primary productivity in N‐limited terrestrial ecosystems and thus enhance the terrestrial carbon (C) sink. To assess the magnitude of this N‐induced C sink, we performed a meta‐analysis on data from forest fertilization experiments to estimate N‐induced C sequestration in aboveground tree woody biomass, a stable C pool with long turnover times. Our results show that boreal and temperate forests responded strongly to N addition and sequestered on average an additional 14 and 13 kg C per kg N in aboveground woody biomass, respectively. Tropical forests, however, did not respond significantly to N addition. The common hypothesis that tropical forests do not respond to N because they are phosphorus‐limited could not be confirmed, as we found no significant response to phosphorus addition in tropical forests. Across climate zones, we found that young forests responded more strongly to N addition, which is important as many previous meta‐analyses of N addition experiments rely heavily on data from experiments on seedlings and young trees. Furthermore, the C–N response (defined as additional mass unit of C sequestered per additional mass unit of N addition) was affected by forest productivity, experimental N addition rate, and rate of ambient N deposition. The estimated C–N responses from our meta‐analysis were generally lower that those derived with stoichiometric scaling, dynamic global vegetation models, and forest growth inventories along N deposition gradients. We estimated N‐induced global C sequestration in tree aboveground woody biomass by multiplying the C–N responses obtained from the meta‐analysis with N deposition estimates per biome. We thus derived an N‐induced global C sink of about 177 (112–243) Tg C/year in aboveground and belowground woody biomass, which would account for about 12% of the forest biomass C sink (1,400 Tg C/year).     

Interannual variability in global soil respiration, 1980–94

We used a climate‐driven regression model to develop spatially resolved estimates of soil‐CO₂ emissions from the terrestrial land surface for each month from January 1980 to December 1994, to evaluate the effects of interannual variations in climate on global soil‐to‐atmosphere CO₂ fluxes. The mean annual global soil‐CO₂ flux over this 15‐y period was estimated to be 80.4 (range 79.3–81.8) Pg C. Monthly variations in global soil‐CO₂ emissions followed closely the mean temperature cycle of the Northern Hemisphere. Globally, soil‐CO₂ emissions reached their minima in February and peaked in July and August. Tropical and subtropical evergreen broad‐leaved forests contributed more soil‐derived CO₂ to the atmosphere than did any other vegetation type (～30% of the total) and exhibited a biannual cycle in their emissions. Soil‐CO₂ emissions in other biomes exhibited a single annual cycle that paralleled the seasonal temperature cycle. Interannual variability in estimated global soil‐CO₂ production is substantially less than is variability in net carbon uptake by plants (i.e., net primary productivity). Thus, soils appear to buffer atmospheric CO₂ concentrations against far more dramatic seasonal and interannual differences in plant growth. Within seasonally dry biomes (savannas, bushlands and deserts), interannual variability in soil‐CO₂ emissions correlated significantly with interannual differences in precipitation. At the global scale, however, annual soil‐CO₂ fluxes correlated with mean annual temperature, with a slope of 3.3 Pg C y^?1 per °C. Although the distribution of precipitation influences seasonal and spatial patterns of soil‐CO₂ emissions, global warming is likely to stimulate CO₂ emissions from soils.     

Response of terrestrial carbon uptake to climate interannual variability in China

The interest in national terrestrial ecosystem carbon budgets has been increasing because the Kyoto Protocol has included some terrestrial carbon sinks in a legally binding framework for controlling greenhouse gases emissions. Accurate quantification of the terrestrial carbon sink must account the interannual variations associated with climate variability and change. This study used a process‐based biogeochemical model and a remote sensing‐based production efficiency model to estimate the variations in net primary production (NPP), soil heterotrophic respiration (HR), and net ecosystem production (NEP) caused by climate variability and atmospheric CO₂ increases in China during the period 1981–2000. The results show that China's terrestrial NPP varied between 2.86 and 3.37 Gt C yr^?1 with a growth rate of 0.32% year^?1 and HR varied between 2.89 and 3.21 Gt C yr^?1 with a growth rate of 0.40% year^?1 in the period 1981–1998. Whereas the increases in HR were related mainly to warming, the increases in NPP were attributed to increases in precipitation and atmospheric CO₂. Net ecosystem production (NEP) varied between ?0.32 and 0.25 Gt C yr^?1 with a mean value of 0.07 Gt C yr^?1, leading to carbon accumulation of 0.79 Gt in vegetation and 0.43 Gt in soils during the period. To the interannual variations in NEP changes in NPP contributed more than HR in arid northern China but less in moist southern China. NEP had no a statistically significant trend, but the mean annual NEP for the 1990s was lower than for the 1980s as the increases in NEP in southern China were offset by the decreases in northern China. These estimates indicate that China's terrestrial ecosystems were taking up carbon but the capacity was undermined by the ongoing climate change. The estimated NEP related to climate variation and atmospheric CO₂ increases may account for from 40 to 80% to the total terrestrial carbon sink in China.     

Clinal adaptation and adaptive plasticity in Artemisia californica: implications for the response of a foundation species to predicted climate change

Local adaptation and plasticity pose significant obstacles to predicting plant responses to future climates. Although local adaptation and plasticity in plant functional traits have been documented for many species, less is known about population‐level variation in plasticity and whether such variation is driven by adaptation to environmental variation. We examined clinal variation in traits and performance – and plastic responses to environmental change – for the shrub Artemisia californica along a 700 km gradient characterized (from south to north) by a fourfold increase in precipitation and a 61% decrease in interannual precipitation variation. Plants cloned from five populations along this gradient were grown for 3 years in treatments approximating the precipitation regimes of the north and south range margins. Most traits varying among populations did so clinally; northern populations (vs. southern) had higher water‐use efficiencies and lower growth rates, C : N ratios and terpene concentrations. Notably, there was variation in plasticity for plant performance that was strongly correlated with source site interannual precipitation variability. The high‐precipitation treatment (vs. low) increased growth and flower production more for plants from southern populations (181% and 279%, respectively) than northern populations (47% and 20%, respectively). Overall, precipitation variability at population source sites predicted 86% and 99% of variation in plasticity in growth and flowering, respectively. These striking, clinal patterns in plant traits and plasticity are indicative of adaptation to both the mean and variability of environmental conditions. Furthermore, our analysis of long‐term coastal climate data in turn indicates an increase in interannual precipitation variation consistent with most global change models and, unexpectedly, this increased variation is especially pronounced at historically stable, northern sites. Our findings demonstrate the critical need to integrate fundamental evolutionary processes into global change models, as contemporary patterns of adaptation to environmental clines will mediate future plant responses to projected climate change.     

Adapting management to a changing world: Warm temperatures,dry soil,and interannual variability limit restoration success of a dominant woody shrub in temperate drylands

Restoration and rehabilitation of native vegetation in dryland ecosystems, which encompass over 40% of terrestrial ecosystems, is a common challenge that continues to grow as wildfire and biological invasions transform dryland plant communities. The difficulty in part stems from low and variable precipitation, combined with limited understanding about how weather conditions influence restoration outcomes, and increasing recognition that one‐time seeding approaches can fail if they do not occur during appropriate plant establishment conditions. The sagebrush biome, which once covered over 620,000 km² of western North America, is a prime example of a pressing dryland restoration challenge for which restoration success has been variable. We analyzed field data on Artemisia tridentata (big sagebrush) restoration collected at 771 plots in 177 wildfire sites across its western range, and used process‐based ecohydrological modeling to identify factors leading to its establishment. Our results indicate big sagebrush occurrence is most strongly associated with relatively cool temperatures and wet soils in the first spring after seeding. In particular, the amount of winter snowpack, but not total precipitation, helped explain the availability of spring soil moisture and restoration success. We also find considerable interannual variability in the probability of sagebrush establishment. Adaptive management strategies that target seeding during cool, wet years or mitigate effects of variability through repeated seeding may improve the likelihood of successful restoration in dryland ecosystems. Given consistent projections of increasing temperatures, declining snowpack, and increasing weather variability throughout midlatitude drylands, weather‐centric adaptive management approaches to restoration will be increasingly important for dryland restoration success.     

Enhanced interannual precipitation variability increases plant functional diversity that in turn ameliorates negative impact on productivity

Although precipitation interannual variability is projected to increase due to climate change, effects of changes in precipitation variance have received considerable less attention than effects of changes in the mean state of climate. Interannual precipitation variability effects on functional diversity and its consequences for ecosystem functioning are assessed here using a 6‐year rainfall manipulation experiment. Five precipitation treatments were switched annually resulting in increased levels of precipitation variability while maintaining average precipitation constant. Functional diversity showed a positive response to increased variability due to increased evenness. Dominant grasses decreased and rare plant functional types increased in abundance because grasses showed a hump‐shaped response to precipitation with a maximum around modal precipitation, whereas rare species peaked at high precipitation values. Increased functional diversity ameliorated negative effects of precipitation variability on primary production. Rare species buffered the effect of precipitation variability on the variability in total productivity because their variance decreases with increasing precipitation variance.     

As above,not so below: Long-term dynamics of net primary production across a dryland transition zone

Drylands are key contributors to interannual variation in the terrestrial carbon sink, which has been attributed primarily to broad-scale climatic anomalies that disproportionately affect net primary production (NPP) in these ecosystems. Current knowledge around the patterns and controls of NPP is based largely on measurements of aboveground net primary production (ANPP), particularly in the context of altered precipitation regimes. Limited evidence suggests belowground net primary production (BNPP), a major input to the terrestrial carbon pool, may respond differently than ANPP to precipitation, as well as other drivers of environmental change, such as nitrogen deposition and fire. Yet long-term measurements of BNPP are rare, contributing to uncertainty in carbon cycle assessments. Here, we used 16 years of annual NPP measurements to investigate responses of ANPP and BNPP to several environmental change drivers across a grassland–shrubland transition zone in the northern Chihuahuan Desert. ANPP was positively correlated with annual precipitation across this landscape; however, this relationship was weaker within sites. BNPP, on the other hand, was weakly correlated with precipitation only in Chihuahuan Desert shrubland. Although NPP generally exhibited similar trends among sites, temporal correlations between ANPP and BNPP within sites were weak. We found chronic nitrogen enrichment stimulated ANPP, whereas a one-time prescribed burn reduced ANPP for nearly a decade. Surprisingly, BNPP was largely unaffected by these factors. Together, our results suggest that BNPP is driven by a different set of controls than ANPP. Furthermore, our findings imply belowground production cannot be inferred from aboveground measurements in dryland ecosystems. Improving understanding around the patterns and controls of dryland NPP at interannual to decadal scales is fundamentally important because of their measurable impact on the global carbon cycle. This study underscores the need for more long-term measurements of BNPP to improve assessments of the terrestrial carbon sink, particularly in the context of ongoing environmental change.     

Dominant regions and drivers of the variability of the global land carbon sink across timescales

Net biome productivity (NBP) dominates the observed large variation of atmospheric CO₂ annual increase over the last five decades. However, the dominant regions controlling inter‐annual to multi‐decadal variability of global NBP are still controversial (semi‐arid regions vs. temperate or tropical forests). By developing a theory for partitioning the variance of NBP into the contributions of net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (R_h) at different timescales, and using both observation‐based atmospheric CO₂ inversion product and the outputs of 10 process‐based terrestrial ecosystem models forced by 110‐year observational climate, we tried to reconcile the controversy by showing that semi‐arid lands dominate the variability of global NBP at inter‐annual (<10 years) and tropical forests dominate at multi‐decadal scales (>30 years). Results further indicate that global NBP variability is dominated by the NPP component at inter‐annual timescales, and is progressively controlled by R_h with increasing timescale. Multi‐decadal NBP variations of tropical rainforests are modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) through its significant influences on both temperature and precipitation. This study calls for long‐term observations for the decadal or longer fluctuations in carbon fluxes to gain insights on the future evolution of global NBP, particularly in the tropical forests that dominate the decadal variability of land carbon uptake and are more effective for climate mitigation.     

Carbon cycle responses of semi‐arid ecosystems to positive asymmetry in rainfall

Recent evidence shows that warm semi‐arid ecosystems are playing a disproportionate role in the interannual variability and greening trend of the global carbon cycle given their mean lower productivity when compared with other biomes (Ahlström et al. 2015 Science, 348, 895). Using multiple observations (land‐atmosphere fluxes, biomass, streamflow and remotely sensed vegetation cover) and two state‐of‐the‐art biospheric models, we show that climate variability and extremes lead to positive or negative responses in the biosphere, depending on vegetation type. We find Australia to be a global hot spot for variability, with semi‐arid ecosystems in that country exhibiting increased carbon uptake due to both asymmetry in the interannual distribution of rainfall (extrinsic forcing), and asymmetry in the response of gross primary production (GPP) to rainfall change (intrinsic response). The latter is attributable to the pulse‐response behaviour of the drought‐adapted biota of these systems, a response that is estimated to be as much as half of that from the CO₂ fertilization effect during 1990–2013. Mesic ecosystems, lacking drought‐adapted species, did not show an intrinsic asymmetric response. Our findings suggest that a future more variable climate will induce large but contrasting ecosystem responses, differing among biomes globally, independent of changes in mean precipitation alone. The most significant changes are occurring in the extensive arid and semi‐arid regions, and we suggest that the reported increased carbon uptake in response to asymmetric responses might be contributing to the observed greening trends there.     

Carbon dioxide exchange over multiple temporal scales in an arid shrub ecosystem near La Paz,Baja California Sur,Mexico

Arid environments represent 30% of the global terrestrial surface, but are largely under‐represented in studies of ecosystem carbon flux. Less than 2% of all FLUXNET eddy covariance sites exist in a hot desert climate. Long‐term datasets of these regions are vital for capturing the seasonal and interannual variability that occur due to episodic precipitation events and climate change, which drive fluctuations in soil moisture and temperature patterns. The objectives of this study were to determine the meteorological variables that drive carbon flux on diel, seasonal, and annual scales and to determine how precipitation events control annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Patterns of NEE from 2002 to 2008 were investigated, providing a record with multiple replicates of seasons and conditions. Precipitation was extremely variable (55–339 mm) during the study period, and reduced precipitation in later years (2004–2008) appears to have resulted in annual moderate to large carbon sources (62–258 g C m^?2 yr^?1) in contrast to the previously reported sink (2002–2003). Variations in photosynthetically active radiation were found to principally drive variations in carbon uptake during the wet growing season while increased soil temperatures at a 5 cm depth stimulated carbon loss during the dry dormant season. Monthly NEE was primarily driven by soil moisture at a 5 cm depth, and years with a higher magnitude of precipitation events showed a longer growing season with annual net carbon uptake, whereas years with lower magnitude had drier soils and displayed short growing seasons with annual net carbon loss. Increased precipitation frequency was associated with increased annual NEE, which may be a function of increased microbial respiration to more small precipitation events. Annual precipitation frequency and magnitude were found to have effects on the interannual variability of NEE for up to 2 years.     

Sensitivity of mean annual primary production to precipitation

In many terrestrial ecosystems, variation in aboveground net primary production (ANPP) is positively correlated with variation in interannual precipitation. Global climate change will alter both the mean and the variance of annual precipitation, but the relative impact of these changes in precipitation on mean ANPP remains uncertain. At any given site, the slope of the precipitation‐ANPP relationship determines the sensitivity of mean ANPP to changes in mean precipitation, whereas the curvature of the precipitation‐ANPP relationship determines the sensitivity of ANPP to changes in precipitation variability. We used 58 existing long‐term data sets to characterize precipitation‐ANPP relationships in terrestrial ecosystems and to quantify the sensitivity of mean ANPP to the mean and variance of annual precipitation. We found that most study sites have a nonlinear, saturating relationship between precipitation and ANPP, but these nonlinearities were not strong. As a result of these weak nonlinearities, ANPP was nearly 40 times more sensitive to precipitation mean than variance. A 1% increase in mean precipitation caused a ?0.2% to 1.8% change in mean ANPP, with a 0.64% increase on average. Sensitivities to precipitation mean peaked at sites with a mean annual precipitation near 500 mm. Changes in species composition and increased intra‐annual precipitation variability could lead to larger ANPP responses to altered precipitation regimes than predicted by our analysis.     

气候年际变率对全球植被平均分布的影响

采用改进后的通用陆面模式的动态植被模式(CLM-DGVM)研究当前气候条件下气候年际变率对全球潜在植被平均分布的影响。设计两组区域数值实验,一组使用基于NCEP再分析资料衍生的1960-1999年多年气象数据循环驱动,对照实验使用这40a的气候平均态或单年气象资料驱动(即没有气候年际变率),分别考察有无气候年际变化对热带、温带和寒带的潜在植被分布平衡态的影响。在此基础上以1950-1999年上述数据及对应的气候平均态为驱动做两组全球实验。结果表明气候年际变率导致全球植被总覆盖度下降,其中树和灌木减少而草增加;全球平均覆盖度的变化按常绿树、草、灌木、落叶树顺序递减,而相对变化(即格点覆盖度差异的绝对值的全球平均值与气候平均态下植物覆盖度的比值)按灌木、草、落叶树、常绿树顺序递减。在温度、降水、风速、比湿、光照、气压等6种气候因子中降水年际变率对于植被平均分布影响最显著。受降水影响,当年降水小于1200mm时植被总覆盖度的差异随其变率增加而下降,其它时候影响不明显。年降水小于1500mm时树减少,幅度随其年际变率变大而增加。常绿树无论降水多寡均减少,而落叶树在年降水大于1500mm时随其变率变大而增加。草在年降水小于1500mm、变率为中等时差异最大,降水较大时其年际变化对草的影响不大。温度年际变率对落叶树分布影响不大而使常绿树减少,尤其是在寒带,其幅度大致随变率增加而变大。草主要在温度高于-10℃增加而灌木在温度低于0℃增加。植被总体覆盖度在温度高于0℃时受影响普遍降低,降低的区域对应于温度年际变率较大的区域。以上结果说明用气候模式或生物地理模式预测未来植物分布时要同时考虑气候平均态和气候变率两方面的变化。     

Geographical and interannual variability in biomass partitioning in grassland ecosystems: a synthesis of field data

Biomass partitioning is an important variable in terrestrial ecosystem carbon modeling. However, geographical and interannual variability in f(BNPP), defined as the fraction of belowground net primary productivity (BNPP) to total NPP, and its relationship with climatic variables, have not been explored. Here we addressed these issues by synthesizing 94 site-year field biomass data at 12 grassland sites around the world from a global NPP database and from the literature. Results showed that f(BNPP) varied from 0.40 to 0.86 across 12 sites. In general, savanna and humid savanna ecosystems had smaller f(BNPP) but larger interannual variability in f(BNPP), and cold desert steppes had larger f(BNPP) but smaller interannual variability. While mean f(BNPP) at a site decreased significantly with increasing mean annual temperature and precipitation across sites, no consistent temporal response of f(BNPP) with annual temperature and precipitation was found within sites. Based on these results, both geographical variability in f(BNPP) and the divergent responses of f(BNPP) with climatic variables at geographical and temporal scales should be considered in global C modeling.     

Linking frequencies of acorn masting in temperate forests to long-term population growth rates in a songbird: the veery (Catharus fuscescens)

Many terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by intermittent production of abundant resources for consumers, termed pulsed resources. The impact of resource pulses on populations downwind of the initial pulse are only beginning to be characterized, while the relationship between the frequencies of pulses and the long‐term growth rate of affected species is unknown. I monitored the reproductive success of veeries (Catharus fuscescens) breeding in oak‐dominated forest in southeastern New York State from 1998 to 2002. During this time veeries experienced high interannual variability in growth rates as a consequence of trophic cascades stemming from pulsed production of acorns. Rodent populations that benefited from acorns also depredated veery nests, while raptors that increased in response to rodent outbreaks are major predators on adult and juvenile birds. Veeries may recoup losses following low to moderate acorn crops that lead to rodent population declines. Thus, veeries fluctuate between years of positive and negative growth rate, however, long‐term population trends, and thus true source‐sink designation, cannot be made until the frequency of various year types is characterized. I simulated long‐term growth rates using reproductive parameters estimated from field studies and survivorship data from the literature. Simulations suggest that variability in the frequency of masting events in oaks can lead to ～10% fluctuation in long‐term growth rates in veeries. These studies suggest that temporal variability in masting dynamics has the potential to substantially influence songbird population trends. Furthermore, spatial variability in masting characteristics (e.g. the frequency of masting events and/or the size of seed crops) may greatly contribute to regional differences in songbird population trends. Because even less is known about the relationship between sizes of acorn crops and songbird populations, the influence of pulses in seed production on songbird population dynamics is likely to be underestimated.     

Higher than expected CO2 fertilization inferred from leaf to global observations

Several lines of evidence point to an increase in the activity of the terrestrial biosphere over recent decades, impacting the global net land carbon sink (NLS) and its control on the growth of atmospheric carbon dioxide (c_a). Global terrestrial gross primary production (GPP)—the rate of carbon fixation by photosynthesis—is estimated to have risen by (31 ± 5)% since 1900, but the relative contributions of different putative drivers to this increase are not well known. Here we identify the rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration as the dominant driver. We reconcile leaf‐level and global atmospheric constraints on trends in modeled biospheric activity to reveal a global CO₂ fertilization effect on photosynthesis of 30% since 1900, or 47% for a doubling of c_a above the pre‐industrial level. Our historic value is nearly twice as high as current estimates (17 ± 4)% that do not use the full range of available constraints. Consequently, under a future low‐emission scenario, we project a land carbon sink (174 PgC, 2006–2099) that is 57 PgC larger than if a lower CO₂ fertilization effect comparable with current estimates is assumed. These findings suggest a larger beneficial role of the land carbon sink in modulating future excess anthropogenic CO₂ consistent with the target of the Paris Agreement to stay below 2°C warming, and underscore the importance of preserving terrestrial carbon sinks.