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1.
Global‐scale gene flow is an important concern in conservation biology as it has the potential to either increase or decrease genetic diversity in species and populations. Although many studies focus on the gene flow between different populations of a single species, the potential for gene flow and introgression between species is understudied, particularly in seabirds. The only well‐studied example of a mixed‐species, hybridizing population of petrels exists on Round Island, in the Indian Ocean. Previous research assumed that Round Island represents a point of secondary contact between Atlantic (Pterodroma arminjoniana) and Pacific species (Pterodroma neglecta and Pterodroma heraldica). This study uses microsatellite genotyping and tracking data to address the possibility of between‐species hybridization occurring outside the Indian Ocean. Dispersal and gene flow spanning three oceans were demonstrated between the species in this complex. Analysis of migration rates estimated using bayesass revealed unidirectional movement of petrels from the Atlantic and Pacific into the Indian Ocean. Conversely, structure analysis revealed gene flow between species of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, with potential three‐way hybrids occurring outside the Indian Ocean. Additionally, geolocation tracking of Round Island petrels revealed two individuals travelling to the Atlantic and Pacific. These results suggest that interspecific hybrids in Pterodroma petrels are more common than was previously assumed. This study is the first of its kind to investigate gene flow between populations of closely related Procellariiform species on a global scale, demonstrating the need for consideration of widespread migration and hybridization in the conservation of threatened seabirds.  相似文献   

2.
Historical records suggest that the petrels of Round Island (near Mauritius, Indian Ocean) represent a recent, long‐distance colonization by species originating from the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The majority of petrels on Round Island appear most similar to Pterodroma arminjoniana, a species whose only other breeding locality is Trindade Island in the South Atlantic. Using nine microsatellite loci, patterns of genetic differentiation in petrels from Round and Trindade Islands were analysed. The two populations exhibit low but significant levels of differentiation in allele frequencies and estimates of migration rate between islands using genetic data are also low, supporting the hypothesis that these populations have recently separated but are now isolated from one another. A second population of petrels, most similar in appearance to the Pacific species P. neglecta, is also present on Round Island and observations suggest that the two petrel species are hybridizing. Vocalizations recorded on the island also suggest that hybrid birds may be present within the population. Data from microsatellite genotypes support this hypothesis and indicate that there may have been many generations of hybridization and back‐crossing between P. arminjoniana and P. neglecta on Round Island. Our results provide an insight into the processes of dispersal and the consequences of secondary contact in Procellariiformes.  相似文献   

3.
The classification of petrels (Pterodroma spp.) from Round Island, near Mauritius in the Indian Ocean, has confounded researchers since their discovery in 1948. In this study we investigate the relationships between Round Island petrels and their closest relatives using evidence from mitochondrial DNA sequence data and ectoparasites. Far from providing clear delimitation of species boundaries, our results reveal that hybridization among species on Round Island has led to genetic leakage between populations from different ocean basins. The most common species on the island, Pterodroma arminjoniana, appears to be hybridizing with two rarer species (P. heraldica and P. neglecta), subverting the reproductive isolation of all three and allowing gene flow. P. heraldica and P. neglecta breed sympatrically in the Pacific Ocean, where P. arminjoniana is absent, but no record of hybridization between these two exists and they remain phenotypically distinct. The breakdown of species boundaries in Round Island petrels followed environmental change (deforestation and changes in species composition due to hunting) within their overlapping ranges. Such multi-species interactions have implications not only for conservation, but also for our understanding of the processes of evolutionary diversification and speciation.  相似文献   

4.
The White-tailed Tropicbird Phaethon lepturus breeding population of Aride Island, Seychelles, has experienced a strong decline in the recent past. To predict the future trends of the White-tailed Tropicbird population on Aride Island and understand the urgency of applying management procedures, we developed a population matrix model. We estimated White-tailed Tropicbird adult survival rate over a 12-year period and investigated whether oceanographic conditions (El Ni?o Southern Oscillation, ENSO, and inter-annual climate variability in the Indian Ocean, Indian Ocean Dipole, IOD) or local factors (Pisonia grandis fruiting events) potentially affect adult survival. Annual adult survival could not be linked to inter-annual variability in oceanographic conditions, but may be more influenced by Pisonia fruiting events, which, overall, accounts for 23.2% of the adult mortality. The growth rate of the population, primarily influenced by annual adult survival, was estimated to be 0.946, which indicates an annual population decline of 5.4%. At the current rate, the probability of extinction of this population would be 99% in 170 years. Management scenarios studied through Monte Carlo simulations, assuming small increments in adult survival and/or breeding success, dramatically reduce the risk of extinction of White-tailed Tropicbirds. Habitat management, in order to maintain an open canopy and little understorey vegetation, appears to be crucial for the conservation of White-tailed Tropicbirds on Aride Island, as has already been shown for other ground-nesting tropical seabirds nesting on forested islands.  相似文献   

5.
Trindade Petrels (Pterodroma arminjoniana) are vulnerable gadfly petrels that breed on the remote Trindade Island, located ~1100 km off the Brazilian coast. Little is known about their spatial ecology, and their trophic ecology has only been described for the breeding season. We tagged four Trindade Petrels with global location sensing loggers (GLS) from October 2013 to November 2014 and sampled the blood and feathers (innermost primary and the eighth secondary) of 14 individuals to evaluate their year‐round spatial and isotopic ecology. We examined individual distributions, habitat use and suitability, activity, and isotopic values during the breeding, migration, and non‐breeding periods. Trindade Petrels used areas in the southwest Atlantic Ocean (between 10°N and 50°S in latitude) during the breeding season. They migrated through pelagic waters of the tropical Atlantic to the northwest Atlantic, where they spent the non‐breeding season. Trindade Petrels used mostly tropical to subtropical waters in areas of intermediate to high wind speeds and low marine productivity. Individuals spent more time foraging at night than during the day. During the breeding season, birds in northerly areas had higher carbon‐13 values, and birds that used more pelagic areas foraged on prey at a higher trophic level (higher nitrogen‐15 values) than those in more southern and coastal areas. Isotopic values during the breeding, migration, and non‐breeding periods differed, possibly due to differences among individuals in their at‐sea distribution throughout the year. We confirmed the non‐breeding distribution of Trindade Petrels, which was previously known only from vessel sightings and stranded birds. Our results also suggest a strong temporal segregation in the at‐sea distribution and trophic ecology between two groups of individuals, which might indicate the existence of two separate breeding populations.  相似文献   

6.
Understanding the drivers underlying fluctuations in the size of animal populations is central to ecology, conservation biology, and wildlife management. Reliable estimates of survival probabilities are key to population viability assessments, and patterns of variation in survival can help inferring the causal factors behind detected changes in population size. We investigated whether variation in age‐ and sex‐specific survival probabilities could help explain the increasing trend in population size detected in a small, discrete population of bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus off the east coast of Scotland. To estimate annual survival probabilities, we applied capture–recapture models to photoidentification data collected from 1989 to 2015. We used robust design models accounting for temporary emigration to estimate juvenile and adult survival, multistate models to estimate sex‐specific survival, and age models to estimate calf survival. We found strong support for an increase in juvenile/adult annual survival from 93.1% to 96.0% over the study period, most likely caused by a change in juvenile survival. Examination of sex‐specific variation showed weaker support for this trend being a result of increasing female survival, which was overall higher than for males and animals of unknown sex. Calf survival was lower in the first than second year; a bias in estimating third‐year survival will likely exist in similar studies. There was some support first‐born calf survival being lower than for calves born subsequently. Coastal marine mammal populations are subject to the impacts of environmental change, increasing anthropogenic disturbance and the effects of management measures. Survival estimates are essential to improve our understanding of population dynamics and help predict how future pressures may impact populations, but obtaining robust information on the life history of long‐lived species is challenging. Our study illustrates how knowledge of survival can be increased by applying a robust analytical framework to photoidentification data.  相似文献   

7.
Worldwide ecosystems are modified by human activities and climate change. To be able to predict future changes, it is necessary to understand their respective role on population dynamics. Among the most threatened species are top predators because of their position in the food web. Albatross populations are potentially affected by both human activities, especially longline fisheries, and climatic fluctuations. Based on long‐term data (1985–2006), we conducted through a comparative approach a demographic analysis (adult survival and breeding success) on four albatross species breeding on the Indian Ocean sub‐Antarctic Islands to assess the relative impact of climate and fisheries during and outside the breeding season. The study revealed that adult survival of almost all species was not affected by climate, and therefore probably canalized against climatic variations, but was negatively affected by tuna longlining effort in three species. Breeding success was affected by climate, with contrasted effects between species, with Southern Oscillation Index having an impact on all species but one. Differences in demographic responses depended on the foraging zone and season. In order to predict population trajectories of seabirds such as albatrosses, our results show the importance of assessing the relative influence of fishing and climate impacts on demography.  相似文献   

8.
In migrant birds, survival estimates for the different life‐history stages between fledging and first breeding are scarce. First‐year survival is shown to be strongly reduced compared with annual survival of adult birds. However, it remains unclear whether the main bottleneck in juvenile long‐distant migrants occurs in the postfledging period within the breeding ranges or en route. Quantifying survival rates during different life‐history stages and during different periods of the migration cycle is crucial to understand forces driving the evolution of optimal life histories in migrant birds. Here, we estimate survival rates of adult and juvenile barn swallows (Hirundo rustica L.) in the breeding and nonbreeding areas using a population model integrating survival estimates in the breeding ranges based on a large radio‐telemetry data set and published estimates of demographic parameters from large‐scale population‐monitoring projects across Switzerland. Input parameters included the country‐wide population trend, annual productivity estimates of the double‐brooded species, and year‐to‐year survival corrected for breeding dispersal. Juvenile survival in the 3‐week postfledging period was low (S = 0.32; SE = 0.05), whereas in the rest of the annual cycle survival estimates of adults and juveniles were similarly high (S > 0.957). Thus, the postfledging period was the main survival bottleneck, revealing the striking result that nonbreeding period mortality (including migration) is not higher for juveniles than for adult birds. Therefore, focusing future research on sources of variation in postfledging mortality can provide new insights into determinants of population dynamics and life‐history evolution of migrant birds.  相似文献   

9.
The effects of a tropical cyclone on the distribution of hatchery‐reared black‐spot tuskfish Choerodon schoenleinii were examined using acoustic telemetry. Nine fish were released in Urasoko Bay, Ishigaki Island, Japan, in September 2006, and another nine were released in June to July 2007, before a cyclone's passing through the area in September 2007. Data for the fish released in 2006 were used as the cyclone‐inexperienced group to compare their distribution pattern to that of the 2007 cyclone‐experienced group. Both groups of fish were monitored for up to 150 days. Of the nine fish in each group, four (44%) and two (22%) were monitored for over 150 days in the cyclone‐inexperienced and the cyclone‐experienced groups, respectively. Three of the five fish that had settled in the monitoring area left the area within a few days of the cyclone event. To estimate the time of disappearance of the fish, maximum wind speed during a period of 7 days (indicating the occurrence and intensity of the tropical cyclone), fish size and release year were evaluated as explanatory variables using a Cox proportional hazards model with Akaike's information criterion. The best predictive model included the effect of maximum wind speed. One fish that left the monitoring area displayed movement patterns related to strong winds, suggesting that wind‐associated strong currents swept the fish away. No relationships were found between the movement patterns of the other two fish and any physical environmental data. The daily detection periods of one of the two fish gradually decreased after the cyclone hit, and this fish eventually left the monitoring area within 3 days, suggesting that it shifted to a habitat outside the monitoring area. These results indicate that tropical cyclones have both direct and indirect effects on the distribution of hatchery‐reared C. schoenleinii.  相似文献   

10.
Weather extremes are one important element of ongoing climate change, but their impacts are poorly understood because they are, by definition, rare events. If the frequency and severity of extreme weather events increase, there is an urgent need to understand and predict the ecological consequences of such events. In this study, we aimed to quantify the effects of snow storms on nest survival in Antarctic petrels and assess whether snow storms are an important driver of annual breeding success and population growth rate. We used detailed data on daily individual nest survival in a year with frequent and heavy snow storms, and long term data on petrel productivity (i.e., number of chicks produced) at the colony level. Our results indicated that snow storms are an important determinant of nest survival and overall productivity. Snow storm events explained 30% of the daily nest survival within the 2011/2012 season and nearly 30% of the interannual variation in colony productivity in period 1985–2014. Snow storms are a key driver of Antarctic petrel breeding success, and potentially population dynamics. We also found state‐dependent effects of snow storms and chicks in poor condition were more likely to die during a snow storm than chicks in good condition. This stresses the importance of considering interactions between individual heterogeneity and extreme weather events to understand both individual and population responses to climate change.  相似文献   

11.

Background

The Gulf coastal ecosystems in Florida are foci of the highest species richness of imperiled shoreline dependent birds in the USA. However environmental processes that affect their macroecological patterns, like occupancy and abundance, are not well unraveled. In Florida the Snowy Plover (Charadrius alexandrinus nivosus) is resident along northern and western white sandy estuarine/ocean beaches and is considered a state-threatened species.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Here we show that favorable nesting areas along the Florida Gulf coastline are located in regions impacted relatively more frequently by tropical cyclones. The odds of Snowy Plover nesting in these areas during the spring following a tropical cyclone impact are seven times higher compared to the odds during the spring following a season without a cyclone. The only intensity of a tropical cyclone does not appear to be a significant factor affecting breeding populations.

Conclusions/Significance

Nevertheless a future climate scenario featuring fewer, but more extreme cyclones could result in a decrease in the breeding Snowy Plover population and its breeding range. This is because the spatio-temporal frequency of cyclone events was found to significantly affect nest abundance. Due to the similar geographic range and habitat suitability, and no decrease in nest abundance of other shorebirds in Florida after the cyclone season, our results suggest a common bioclimatic feedback between shorebird abundance and tropical cyclones in breeding areas which are affected by cyclones.  相似文献   

12.
Increasing amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) from human industrial activities are causing changes in global ocean carbonate chemistry, resulting in a reduction in pH, a process termed “ocean acidification.” It is important to determine which species are sensitive to elevated levels of CO2 because of potential impacts to ecosystems, marine resources, biodiversity, food webs, populations, and effects on economies. Previous studies with marine fish have documented that exposure to elevated levels of CO2 caused increased growth and larger otoliths in some species. This study was conducted to determine whether the elevated partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) would have an effect on growth, otolith (ear bone) condition, survival, or the skeleton of juvenile scup, Stenotomus chrysops, a species that supports both important commercial and recreational fisheries. Elevated levels of pCO2 (1200–2600 μatm) had no statistically significant effect on growth, survival, or otolith condition after 8 weeks of rearing. Field data show that in Long Island Sound, where scup spawn, in situ levels of pCO2 are already at levels ranging from 689 to 1828 μatm due to primary productivity, microbial activity, and anthropogenic inputs. These results demonstrate that ocean acidification is not likely to cause adverse effects on the growth and survivability of every species of marine fish. X‐ray analysis of the fish revealed a slightly higher incidence of hyperossification in the vertebrae of a few scup from the highest treatments compared to fish from the control treatments. Our results show that juvenile scup are tolerant to increases in seawater pCO2, possibly due to conditions this species encounters in their naturally variable environment and their well‐developed pH control mechanisms.  相似文献   

13.
Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), in particular dimethyl sulphide (DMS) and isoprene, have fundamental ecological, physiological and climatic roles. Our current understanding of these roles is almost exclusively established from terrestrial or oceanic environments but signifies a potentially major, but largely unknown, role for BVOCs in tropical coastal marine ecosystems. The tropical coast is a transition zone between the land and ocean, characterized by highly productive and biodiverse coral reefs, seagrass beds and mangroves, which house primary producers that are amongst the greatest emitters of BVOCs on the planet. Here, we synthesize our existing understanding of BVOC emissions to produce a novel conceptual framework of the tropical marine coast as a continuum from DMS‐dominated reef producers to isoprene‐dominated mangroves. We use existing and previously unpublished data to consider how current environmental conditions shape BVOC production across the tropical coastal continuum, and in turn how BVOCs can regulate environmental stress tolerance or species interactions via infochemical networks. We use this as a framework to discuss how existing predictions of future tropical coastal BVOC emissions, and the roles they play, are effectively restricted to present day ‘baseline’ trends of BVOC production across species and environmental conditions; as such, there remains a critical need to focus research efforts on BVOC responses to rapidly accelerating anthropogenic impacts at local and regional scales. We highlight the complete lack of current knowledge required to understand the future ecological functioning of these important systems, and to predict whether feedback mechanisms are likely to regulate or exacerbate current climate change scenarios through environmentally and ecologically mediated changes to BVOC budgets at the ecosystem level.  相似文献   

14.
Both intrinsic and extrinsic factors recorded at individual nests can predict offspring fitness and survival but few studies have examined these effects in the tropics. We recorded nestling survival, post‐fledging survival and age at first return of Roseate Terns breeding at Aride Island, Seychelles, over a 12‐year period (1998–2009). Nest data recorded at the egg, nestling and fledging stages were collected during six breeding seasons (1998, 2001–2005) and a capture‐mark‐recapture dataset of six cohorts of fledglings was obtained from 2001–2009. Logistic regression models were used to assess the predictive effect of reproductive variables on fledging success, while multistate capture‐mark‐recapture models were used to estimate post‐fledging survival and return–recruitment probabilities to the natal site. Nestling survival probability increased with earliness of laying and was negatively affected by tick infestation during the growth period (0–23 days). Fledging probability was also positively related to chick body condition, whereas other pre‐fledging reproductive parameters such as clutch size and egg size were not influential. A multistate modelling of age‐specific survival and return–recruitment (transition) rates found that first‐year survival differed between cohorts and was also negatively affected by tick infestation. Annual survival stabilized from age 2 onwards at 0.83 ± 0.02. Transition rates were positively related to body condition at fledging, with heavier individuals returning for the first time to the natal colony at a younger age compared with lighter individuals. These results highlight the importance of local conditions encountered by tropical seabirds during the breeding season in shaping demographic parameters.  相似文献   

15.
Early‐life demographic traits are poorly known, impeding our understanding of population processes and sensitivity to climate change. Survival of immature individuals is a critical component of population dynamics and recruitment in particular. However, obtaining reliable estimates of juvenile survival (i.e., from independence to first year) remains challenging, as immatures are often difficult to observe and to monitor individually in the field. This is particularly acute for seabirds, in which juveniles stay at sea and remain undetectable for several years. In this work, we developed a Bayesian integrated population model to estimate the juvenile survival of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri), and other demographic parameters including adult survival and fecundity of the species. Using this statistical method, we simultaneously analyzed capture–recapture data of adults, the annual number of breeding females, and the number of fledglings of emperor penguins collected at Dumont d'Urville, Antarctica, for the period 1971–1998. We also assessed how climate covariates known to affect the species foraging habitats and prey [southern annular mode (SAM), sea ice concentration (SIC)] affect juvenile survival. Our analyses revealed that there was a strong evidence for the positive effect of SAM during the rearing period (SAMR) on juvenile survival. Our findings suggest that this large‐scale climate index affects juvenile emperor penguins body condition and survival through its influence on wind patterns, fast ice extent, and distance to open water. Estimating the influence of environmental covariates on juvenile survival is of major importance to understand the impacts of climate variability and change on the population dynamics of emperor penguins and seabirds in general and to make robust predictions on the impact of climate change on marine predators.  相似文献   

16.
Climatic oscillations during the Pleistocene have greatly influenced the distribution and connectivity of many organisms, leading to extinctions but also generating biodiversity. While the effects of such changes have been extensively studied in the terrestrial environment, studies focusing on the marine realm are still scarce. Here we used sequence data from one mitochondrial and five nuclear loci to assess the potential influence of Pleistocene climatic changes on the phylogeography and demographic history of a cosmopolitan marine predator, the common dolphin (genus Delphinus). Population samples representing the three major morphotypes of Delphinus were obtained from 10 oceanic regions. Our results suggest that short‐beaked common dolphins are likely to have originated in the eastern Indo‐Pacific Ocean during the Pleistocene and expanded into the Atlantic Ocean through the Indian Ocean. On the other hand, long‐beaked common dolphins appear to have evolved more recently and independently in several oceans. Our results also suggest that short‐beaked common dolphins had recurrent demographic expansions concomitant with changes in sea surface temperature during the Pleistocene and its associated increases in resource availability, which differed between the North Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins. By proposing how past environmental changes had an effect on the demography and speciation of a widely distributed marine mammal, we highlight the impacts that climate change may have on the distribution and abundance of marine predators and its ecological consequences for marine ecosystems.  相似文献   

17.
Six microsatellite loci were isolated from the petrels of Round Island, near Mauritius in the Indian Ocean (Pterodroma arminjoniana). Three loci were monomorphic in P. arminjoniana but were found to be polymorphic in other Procellariiforms. Cross-utility of all six loci was tested in 17 Procellariiform and 1 penguin species. In addition, 53 microsatellite loci developed for other species of birds were tested for cross-species amplification in P. arminjoniana. Six of these loci were found to be polymorphic.  相似文献   

18.
Abstract Cyclone Larry (category 4) was the most severe cyclone to impact on the Wet Tropics bioregion since the devastating 1918 Innisfail cyclone. Based on an analysis of earlier cyclones impacting on this region over the period 1856–2006, it was determined that Larry was a ‘1 in 50 year’ event. This paper provides an overview of the landscape‐scale impacts of Larry on the forest ecosystems of the Wet Tropics region, based on low‐level helicopter surveys 2 weeks after the event. Cyclone Larry has been described as a ‘midget’ cyclone. Severe forest damage only extended about 30 km from the central track of the cyclone while moderate to severe damage extended some 50 km. Moderate to slight canopy disturbance was rarely identified more than 75 km from the centre of the cyclone's track. Beyond 75 km, forest damage was restricted to exposed areas of elevated terrain and in places exposed to strong lee (gravity) waves from the west. The ecological role of cyclones as important disturbance agents affecting the structure and function of forest ecosystems in the region is discussed, followed by an evaluation of likely effects of climate change on cyclone frequency and intensity.  相似文献   

19.
TAAF ensures since 2007 the management of 5 small tropical islands lying in the southwestern Indian Ocean: the Iles Eparses. These islands share an exceptional natural heritage including many marine and terrestrial endemic species. At a regional scale the Iles Eparses are some of the most pristine ecosystems, largely preserved from anthropogenic impacts due to their geographical isolation and a historically very limited human occupation. In this context, TAAF wished that Iles Eparses become unique natural laboratories for earth scientists and environmental process observation – like climate change impacts - but also sustainable biodiversity sanctuaries for which the scientific community should provide baseline ecological data to inform on appropriate conservation tools. An inter-agency research consortium emerged in 2009 to meet this commitment for the Iles Eparses. This program was intended to set a science framework in accordance with France' objectives for Research and Conservation. It enabled between 2009 and 2014 the implementation of 18 cross-disciplinary research projects ranging from geology to ecology and represented by the variety of the proposed articles in this special issue. Altogether research projects have dramatically increased knowledge on the Iles Eparses' ecosystems and have provided the first overview of their diversity, their functions and their dynamics and its determinants. In particular applied research efforts have supplied a significant amount of ecological evidence that is now available to develop optimal conservation strategy to ensure the Iles Eparses' long-term biodiversity value. These findings point out that the continuation of research activity in the Iles Eparses should be considered a priority.  相似文献   

20.
Ocean warming under climate change threatens coral reefs directly, through fatal heat stress to corals and indirectly, by boosting the energy of cyclones that cause coral destruction and loss of associated organisms. Although cyclone frequency is unlikely to rise, cyclone intensity is predicted to increase globally, causing more frequent occurrences of the most destructive cyclones with potentially severe consequences for coral reef ecosystems. While increasing heat stress is considered a pervasive risk to coral reefs, quantitative estimates of threats from cyclone intensification are lacking due to limited data on cyclone impacts to inform projections. Here, using extensive data from Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR), we show that increases in cyclone intensity predicted for this century are sufficient to greatly accelerate coral reef degradation. Coral losses on the outer GBR were small, localized and offset by gains on undisturbed reefs for more than a decade, despite numerous cyclones and periods of record heat stress, until three unusually intense cyclones over 5 years drove coral cover to record lows over >1500 km. Ecological damage was particularly severe in the central‐southern region where 68% of coral cover was destroyed over >1000 km, forcing record declines in the species richness and abundance of associated fish communities, with many local extirpations. Four years later, recovery of average coral cover was relatively slow and there were further declines in fish species richness and abundance. Slow recovery of community diversity appears likely from such a degraded starting point. Highly unusual characteristics of two of the cyclones, aside from high intensity, inflated the extent of severe ecological damage that would more typically have occurred over 100s of km. Modelling published predictions of future cyclone activity, the likelihood of more intense cyclones within time frames of coral recovery by mid‐century poses a global threat to coral reefs and dependent societies.  相似文献   

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