Sex,growth rate,rank order after brood reduction,and hatching date affect first‐year survival of long‐lived Herring Gulls

Among most species of birds, survival from hatching throughout the first year of life is generally lower than subsequent survival rates. Survival of young birds during their first year may depend on a combination of selection, learning, unpredictable resources, and environmental events (i.e., post‐fledging factors). However, knowledge about post‐fledging development in long‐lived species is usually limited due to a lengthy immature stage when individuals are generally unobservable. Therefore, pre‐fledging characteristics are often used to predict the survival of young birds. We assessed effects of nestling growth rates, hatching date, hatching asynchrony, brood size and rank order after brood reduction, and sex on first‐year survival of 137 fledglings using a mark‐resighting analysis. We found that the survival probability (Φ_1yr = 0.39) of first‐year Herring Gulls (Larus argentatus) in our study colony located at the outer port of Zeebrugge (Belgium) was lower than that of older individuals (Φ_>1yr = 0.75). All 10 models best supported by our data included nestling growth rate, suggesting that variability in first‐year survival may be linked primarily to individual variation in growth. First‐year survival was negatively correlated with hatching date and rank order after brood reduction. Hence, carry‐over effects of breeding season events such as timing of breeding, early development, and social status had an influence on survival of Herring Gulls after fledging. Furthermore, we found sex‐biased mortality in first‐year Herring Gulls, with females (Φ_1yr = 0.45) surviving better than males (Φ_1yr = 0.38). Although adult survival is generally regarded as the key parameter driving population trajectories in long‐lived species, juvenile survival has recently been acknowledged as an important source of variability in population growth rates. Thus, increasing our knowledge of factors affecting age‐specific survival rates is necessary to improve our understanding of population dynamics and ultimately life‐history variation.     

Carryover effects and climatic conditions influence the postfledging survival of greater sage‐grouse

Prebreeding survival is an important life history component that affects both parental fitness and population persistence. In birds, prebreeding can be separated into pre‐ and postfledging periods; carryover effects from the prefledging period may influence postfledging survival. We investigated effects of body condition at fledging, and climatic variation, on postfledging survival of radio‐marked greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the Great Basin Desert of the western United States. We hypothesized that body condition would influence postfledging survival as a carryover effect from the prefledging period, and we predicted that climatic variation may mediate this carryover effect or, alternatively, would act directly on survival during the postfledging period. Individual body condition had a strong positive effect on postfledging survival of juvenile females, suggesting carryover effects from the prefledging period. Females in the upper 25th percentile of body condition scores had a postfledging survival probability more than twice that (Φ = 0.51 ± 0.06 SE) of females in the bottom 25th percentile (Φ = 0.21 ± 0.05 SE). A similar effect could not be detected for males. We also found evidence for temperature and precipitation effects on monthly survival rates of both sexes. After controlling for site‐level variation, postfledging survival was nearly twice as great following the coolest and wettest growing season (Φ = 0.77 ± 0.05 SE) compared with the hottest and driest growing season (Φ = 0.39 ± 0.05 SE). We found no relationships between individual body condition and temperature or precipitation, suggesting that carryover effects operated independently of background climatic variation. The temperature and precipitation effects we observed likely produced a direct effect on mortality risk during the postfledging period. Conservation actions that focus on improving prefledging habitat for sage‐grouse may have indirect benefits to survival during postfledging, due to carryover effects between the two life phases.     

Postfledging habitat selection of juvenile middle spotted woodpeckers: a multi-scale approach

Despite its relevance for the persistence of populations, the ecological mechanisms underlying habitat use decisions of juvenile birds are poorly understood. We examined postfledging habitat selection of radio-tracked juvenile middle spotted woodpeckers Dendrocopos medius at multiple hierarchically-nested spatial scales in NW Spain. At the landscape and home range scales, old oak forest was the most used and selected habitat, young oak forests and pine plantations were avoided, and riverside forests were used as available. At a lower scale, birds selected larger diameter trees for foraging. Home ranges had higher densities of large deciduous trees (mainly oaks Quercus spp., but also poplars Populus spp. and willows Salix spp. >22  cm and >33  cm DBH) selected for foraging by juveniles than non-used areas. These results suggest that foraging conditions may drive, at least partly, habitat use decisions by juvenile birds. We also discuss the potential influence of intraspecific competition, the search for a future breeding territory in the early postfledging period and predation avoidance on habitat use decisions by juvenile birds. Contrary to previous studies on migrant forest birds, postfledging juvenile woodpeckers selected the same habitat as for the breeding adults (i.e. old oak forest), indicating that migrant and resident specialist avian species may require different conservation actions. Conservation strategies of woodpecker populations should consider the protection of old oak forests with high densities of large trees to provide suitable habitat to breeding adults and postfledging juveniles. The habitat improvement for this indicator and umbrella species would also favour other organisms that depend on characteristics of old-growth oak forests.     

Survival and life expectancy of the tree Protea roupelliae subsp. roupelliae in a montane grassland savanna: Effects of fire regime and plant structure

Survival and life expectancy are key demographic determinants of population dynamics. Using data collected in a field experiment monitored over 14 years in montane grassland of the Ukhahlamba‐Drakensberg Park, South Africa, we determined the effects of components of fire regime and plant structure on the survival and life expectancy of the tree Protea roupelliae subsp. roupelliae (Proteaceae). The field experiment comprised six plots (0.2–0.5 ha in area) from which the survival and life expectancies of 1567 juveniles (non‐reproductives) and 329 adults (reproductives) were estimated in response to differences in fire frequency, biennial seasonal fire, flame height, juvenile height, adult height, basal area and canopy vigour. Juvenile survival and life expectancies were highest when fires were excluded for 8 years. However, a fire after 12 years of fire exclusion and another fire 2 years later eliminated all juveniles. Over the same 14‐year period of biennial fires, juvenile survival was 5%. Juvenile survival and life expectancy were higher after biennial, winter fires than after annual, winter fires. Flame height had no effect on juvenile survival and life expectancy. Both survival and life expectancy of juveniles increased as plants got older and grew taller. Adult survival was unaffected by fire frequency, flame height or tree size, but the survival of adults in response to fire seasonality was inconclusive. Adults with low canopy vigour (<25%) were negatively affected by fire. Juvenile survival and life expectancy are critical bottlenecks in the demography of P. roupelliae. This species is neither a reseeder nor a resprouter. It avoids lethal fire damage by being restricted to rocky habitats with low fire intensities. Biennial winter fires least threaten the survival and life expectancy of P. roupelliae and impact least on its role in the summer feeding and breeding of Gurney's sugarbird.     

A recipe for postfledging survival in great tits Parus major: be large and be early (but not too much)

Survival of juveniles during the postfledging period can be markedly low, which may have major consequences on avian population dynamics. Knowing which factors operating during the nesting phase affect postfledging survival is crucial to understand avian breeding strategies. We aimed to obtain a robust set of predictors of postfledging local survival using the great tit (Parus major) as a model species. We used mark–recapture models to analyze the effect of hatching date, temperatures experienced during the nestling period, fledging size and body mass on first‐year postfledging survival probability of great tit juveniles. We used data from 5192 nestlings of first clutches ringed between 1993 and 2010. Mean first‐year postfledging survival probability was 15.2%, and it was lower for smaller individuals, as well as for those born in either very early or late broods. Our results stress the importance of choosing an optimum hatching period, and raising large chicks to increase first‐year local survival probability in the studied population.     

Annual survival and breeding dispersal of a migratory passerine,the Scissor‐tailed Flycatcher

Knowledge of survival rates is critical for advancing our understanding of the dynamics of populations and here we report apparent annual survival and breeding dispersal of Scissor‐tailed Flycatchers (Tyrannus forficatus) breeding at two sites in southwest Oklahoma (Ft. Sill and Wichita Mountain Wildlife Refuge [WMWR]). Our Cormack‐Jolly‐Seber estimate of apparent adult survival for the period from 2008 to 2105 was relatively low (0.514) compared to estimates for 36 other migratory and socially monogamous passerines breeding in North America, and was independent of sex (males: N = 151; females: N = 119), breeding status (territory holder or floater), body mass, site, year, and precipitation during the year prior to breeding. Although apparent survival did not differ between sites, dispersal (N = 66 individuals) was more common and breeding dispersal distance (BDD) was greater for Scissor‐tailed Flycatchers at Ft. Sill where anthropogenic disturbance was more frequent. BDD also increased with body mass at Ft. Sill (but not at WMWR) and, after accounting for it, BDD at Ft. Sill tended to be greater for birds that failed to breed successfully in the past year. Older birds and males had the longest BDDs at WMWR, and males exhibited a similar tendency at Ft. Sill. We contend that our estimate of apparent survival is low, not because of inherently low survivorship, but, instead, as a consequence of frequent permanent emigration from our population. We also suggest that the greater BDD of older birds (WMWR) and males (both sites) reflects a history of selection for dispersal in response to frequent habitat disturbance. Frequent habitat disturbance, in addition to the opportunity to prospect for territories both before and after breeding, probably enable the earliest spring arrivals (typically older birds and males) to often relocate between years.     

High juvenile annual survival probabilities in Southern Rockhopper Penguins Eudyptes chrysocome are independent of individual fledging traits

Juvenile survival is an important demographic parameter. Southern Rockhopper Penguins Eudyptes chrysocome have undergone a dramatic population decline in the past century across their distribution, but the demographic processes are poorly understood. To estimate juvenile annual survival probabilities, Rockhopper Penguin chicks from two cohorts on New Island, Falkland Islands, were marked with transponders and recorded in subsequent years using an automated gateway. We first estimated annual survival and detection probabilities using a Cormack‐Jolly‐Seber (CJS) model, and found that both probabilities were extremely high (81% in the first and 98% in the second, third and fourth years of life), even in comparison with adult birds. Because detection probability after 3 years was effectively 1, and our sample size (n = 114) was too small to explore the effects of individual traits on survival in a CJS model, we assessed whether sex, cohort, body mass and laying sequence affected whether juveniles returned to the colony during their first 3 years of life using a simple generalized linear model that assumed perfect detection. Juveniles from the first cohort and males showed a higher return probability than juveniles from the second cohort and females. There was no clear effect of fledging body mass on return rate, probably related to the favourable environmental conditions during the study period. The laying sequence did not markedly affect the return probability of chicks, indicating that, once fledged, first‐laid A‐chicks have the same probability to return as second‐laid B‐chicks despite a much larger initial maternal investment in B‐eggs in this species. This study demonstrates extraordinarily high juvenile survival probabilities and will help to understand the recent changes in the population dynamics of the Falkland Islands Southern Rockhopper Penguins.     

Contemporary breeding biology of critically endangered Regent Honeyeaters: implications for conservation

Identifying factors influencing the demographics of threatened species is essential for conservation, but a lack of comprehensive demographic data often impedes the effective conservation of rare and mobile species. We monitored breeding of critically endangered and semi‐nomadic Regent Honeyeaters Anthochaera phrygia (global population c. 100 pairs) over 3 years throughout their range. Overall nest success probability (0.317) was highly spatially variable and considerably lower than previous estimates for this (and many other honeyeater) species, as was productivity of successful nests (mean 1.58 juveniles fledged). Nest surveillance revealed high predation rates by a range of birds and arboreal mammals as the primary cause of nest failure. An estimated 12% of pairs either failed to establish a territory or their nests did not reach the egg stage. We also found a male bias to the adult sex ratio, with an estimated 1.18 males per female. Juvenile survival for the first 2 weeks after fledging was high (86%). Management interventions that aim to increase nest success in areas of low nest survival must be investigated to address an apparent decline in reproductive output and avoid extinction of the Regent Honeyeater. We show that temporal and spatial variation in the breeding success of rare and highly mobile species can be quantified with robust population monitoring using sampling regimens that account for their life histories. Understanding the causes of spatio‐temporal variation in breeding success can enhance conservation outcomes for such species through spatially and temporally targeted recovery actions.     

Senescence and carryover effects of reproductive performance influence migration,condition, and breeding propensity in a small shorebird

Breeding propensity, the probability that an animal will attempt to breed each year, is perhaps the least understood demographic process influencing annual fecundity. Breeding propensity is ecologically complex, as associations among a variety of intrinsic and extrinsic factors may interact to affect an animal's breeding decisions. Individuals that opt not to breed can be more difficult to detect than breeders, which can (1) lead to difficulty in estimation of breeding propensity, and (2) bias other demographic parameters. We studied the effects of sex, age, and population reproductive success on the survival and breeding propensity of a migratory shorebird, the piping plover (Charadrius melodus ), nesting on the Missouri River. We used a robust design Barker model to estimate true survival and breeding propensity and found survival decreased as birds aged and did so more quickly for males than females. Monthly survival during the breeding season was lower than during migration or the nonbreeding season. Males were less likely to skip breeding (range: 1–17%) than females (range: 3–26%; β_sex = ?0.21, 95% CI: ?0.38 to ?0.21), and both sexes were less likely to return to the breeding grounds following a year of high reproductive success. Birds that returned in a year following relatively high population‐wide reproductive output were in poorer condition than following a year with lower reproductive output. Younger adult birds and females were more likely to migrate from the breeding area earlier than older birds and males; however, all birds stayed on the breeding grounds longer when nest survival was low, presumably because of renesting attempts. Piping plovers used a variety of environmental and demographic cues to inform their reproduction, employing strategies that could maximize fitness on average. Our results support the “disposable soma” theory of aging and follow with predictions from life history theory, exhibiting the intimate connections among the core ecological concepts of senescence, carryover effects, and life history.     

Migratory connectivity of Palaearctic–African migratory birds and their responses to environmental change: the serial residency hypothesis

In most long‐distance migratory birds, juveniles migrate without their parents and so are likely to lack detailed knowledge of where to go. This suggests the potential for stochasticity to affect their choice of wintering area at a large scale (> 1000 km). Adults, in contrast, may re‐use non‐breeding sites that promote their survival, so removing uncertainty from their subsequent migrations. I review the evidence for large‐scale stochastic juvenile site selection followed by adult site fidelity, and then develop a ‘serial‐residency’ hypothesis based on these two traits as a framework to explain both the migratory connectivity and the population dynamics of migrant birds and how these are affected by environmental change. Juvenile stochasticity is apparent in the age‐dependent effects of weather or experimental displacement on the outcome of migration and in the very wide variation in the destinations of individuals originating from the same area. Adults have been shown to be very faithful to their wintering grounds and even to staging sites. The serial residency hypothesis predicts that migrants that show these two traits will rely on an individually unique but fixed series of temporally and spatially linked sites to complete their annual cycle. As a consequence, migratory connectivity will be apparent at a very small scale for individuals, but only at a large scale for a population, and juveniles are predicted to occur more often at less suitable sites than adults, so that survival will be lower for juveniles. Migratory connectivity will arise only through spatial and temporal autocorrelation with local environmental constraints, particularly on passage, and the distribution and age structure of the population may reflect past environmental constraints. At least some juveniles will discover suitable habitat that they may re‐use as adults, thus promoting overall population‐level resilience to environmental change, and suggesting value in site‐based conservation. However, because migratory connectivity only acts on a large scale, any population of migrants will contain individuals that encounter a change in suitability somewhere in their non‐breeding range, so affecting average survival. Differences in population trends will therefore reflect variation in local breeding output added to average survival from wintering and staging areas. The latter is likely to be declining given increasing levels of environmental degradation throughout Africa. Large‐scale migratory connectivity also has implications for the evolutionary ecology of migrants, generally because this is likely to lead to selection for generalist traits.     

State uncertainty models and mark‐resight models for understanding non‐breeding site use by Piping Plovers

Conservation of beach‐nesting medium‐distance migrants has focused on breeding areas because protection of nests is more tractable than protection of non‐breeding habitat. As breeding ground management has encountered diminishing returns, interest in understanding threats in non‐breeding areas has increased. However, robust estimates of non‐breeding demographic rates and abundance are generally lacking, hindering the study of limiting factors. Estimating such rates is made more difficult by complex population dynamics at non‐breeding sites. In South Carolina, endangered Piping Plovers Charadrius melodus start arriving in July and some depart prior to December (the autumn‐only population) while others remain through at least March (the wintering population). State uncertainty capture‐mark‐recapture models provide a means for estimating vital rates for such co‐occurring populations. We estimated the proportion of the population entering the study area per survey (entry probability) and proportion remaining per survey (persistence rate) for both populations during autumn, and abundance of the wintering population, at four sites in South Carolina in 2006/7 and 2007/8, taking advantage of birds previously colour‐ringed on the breeding grounds. We made fairly precise estimates of entry and persistence rates with small sample sizes. Cumulative entry probability was ~50% by the end of July and reached 95% for both populations by October. Estimated stopover duration for birds in the autumn‐only population was 35 days in year 1 and 42 days in year 2. We estimated a wintering super‐population size of 71 ± 16 se birds in the first year and 75 ± 16 in the second. If ringing programmes on the breeding grounds continue, standardized resighting surveys in the non‐breeding period and mark‐recapture models can provide robust estimates of entry and persistence rates and abundance. Habitat protection intended to benefit non‐breeding Piping Plovers at our coastal sites should be in effect by late summer, as many birds are resident from July to the end of winter.     

Comparing the seasonal survival of resident and migratory oystercatchers: carry‐over effects of habitat quality and weather conditions

Events happening in one season can affect life‐history traits at (the) subsequent season(s) by carry‐over effects. Wintering conditions are known to affect breeding success, but few studies have investigated carry‐over effects on survival. The Eurasian oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus is a coastal wader with sedentary populations at temperate sites and migratory populations in northern breeding grounds of Europe. We pooled continental European ringing‐recovery datasets from 1975 to 2000 to estimate winter and summer survival rates of migrant and resident populations and to investigate long‐term effects of winter habitat changes. During mild climatic periods, adults of both migratory and resident populations exhibited survival rates 2% lower in summer than in winter. Severe winters reduced survival rates (down to 25% reduction) and were often followed by a decline in survival during the following summer, via short‐term carry‐over effects. Habitat changes in the Dutch wintering grounds caused a reduction in food stocks, leading to reduced survival rates, particularly in young birds. Therefore, wintering habitat changes resulted in long‐term (>10 years) 8.7 and 9.4% decrease in adult annual survival of migrant and resident populations respectively. Studying the impact of carry‐over effects is crucial for understanding the life history of migratory birds and the development of conservation measures.     

Habitat use and spatial fidelity of male South American sea lions during the nonbreeding period

Conditions experienced during the nonbreeding period have profound long‐term effects on individual fitness and survival. Therefore, knowledge of habitat use during the nonbreeding period can provide insights into processes that regulate populations. At the Falkland Islands, the habitat use of South American sea lions (Otaria flavescens) during the nonbreeding period is of particular interest because the population is yet to recover from a catastrophic decline between the mid‐1930s and 1965, and nonbreeding movements are poorly understood. Here, we assessed the habitat use of adult male (n = 13) and juvenile male (n = 6) South American sea lions at the Falkland Islands using satellite tags and stable isotope analysis of vibrissae. Male South American sea lions behaved like central place foragers. Foraging trips were restricted to the Patagonian Shelf and were typically short in distance and duration (127 ± 66 km and 4.1 ± 2.0 days, respectively). Individual male foraging trips were also typically characterized by a high degree of foraging site fidelity. However, the isotopic niche of adult males was smaller than juvenile males, which suggested that adult males were more consistent in their use of foraging habitats and prey over time. Our findings differ from male South American sea lions in Chile and Argentina, which undertake extended movements during the nonbreeding period. Hence, throughout their breeding range, male South American sea lions have diverse movement patterns during the nonbreeding period that intuitively reflects differences in the predictability or accessibility of preferred prey. Our findings challenge the long‐standing notion that South American sea lions undertake a winter migration away from the Falkland Islands. Therefore, impediments to South American sea lion population recovery likely originate locally and conservation measures at a national level are likely to be effective in addressing the decline and the failure of the population to recover.     

Carry‐over effects provide linkages across the annual cycle of a Neotropical migratory bird,the Louisiana Waterthrush Parkesia motacilla

Population limitation models of migratory birds have sought to include impacts from events across the full annual cycle. Previous work has shown that events occurring in winter result in some individuals transitioning to the breeding grounds earlier or in better physical condition than others, thereby affecting reproductive success (carry‐over effects). However, evidence for carry‐over effects from breeding to wintering grounds has been shown less often. We used feather corticosterone (CORT_f) levels of the migratory Louisiana Waterthrush Parkesia motacilla as a measure of the physiological state of birds at the time of moult on the breeding territory to investigate whether carry‐over effects provide linkages across the annual cycle of this stream‐obligate bird. We show that birds arriving on wintering grounds with lower CORT_f scores, indicating reduced energetic challenges or stressors at the time of moult, occupied higher quality territories, and that these birds then achieved a better body condition during the overwinter period. Body condition, in turn, was important in determining whether adult birds returned the following winter, with birds in better condition returning at higher rates. Together these data suggest a carry‐over effect from the breeding grounds to the wintering grounds that is further extended with respect to annual return rates. Very few other studies have linked conditions during the previous breeding season with latent effects during the subsequent overwintering period or with annual survival. This study shows that the effects of variation in energetic challenges or stressors can potentially carry over from the natal stream and accumulate over more than one life‐history period before being manifested in reduced survival. This is of particular relevance to models of population limitation in migratory birds.     

Estimating correlations among demographic parameters in population models

Estimating correlations among demographic parameters is critical to understanding population dynamics and life‐history evolution, where correlations among parameters can inform our understanding of life‐history trade‐offs, result in effective applied conservation actions, and shed light on evolutionary ecology. The most common approaches rely on the multivariate normal distribution, and its conjugate inverse Wishart prior distribution. However, the inverse Wishart prior for the covariance matrix of multivariate normal distributions has a strong influence on posterior distributions. As an alternative to the inverse Wishart distribution, we individually parameterize the covariance matrix of a multivariate normal distribution to accurately estimate variances (σ²) of, and process correlations (ρ) between, demographic parameters. We evaluate this approach using simulated capture–mark–recapture data. We then use this method to examine process correlations between adult and juvenile survival of black brent geese marked on the Yukon–Kuskokwim River Delta, Alaska (1988–2014). Our parameterization consistently outperformed the conjugate inverse Wishart prior for simulated data, where the means of posterior distributions estimated using an inverse Wishart prior were substantially different from the values used to simulate the data. Brent adult and juvenile annual apparent survival rates were strongly positively correlated (ρ = 0.563, 95% CRI 0.181–0.823), suggesting that habitat conditions have significant effects on both adult and juvenile survival. We provide robust simulation tools, and our methods can readily be expanded for use in other capture–recapture or capture‐recovery frameworks. Further, our work reveals limits on the utility of these approaches when study duration or sample sizes are small.     

Dispersal, interpatch movements, and survival in a shrubland breeding bird community

ABSTRACT Dispersal events can affect the distribution, abundance, population structure, and gene flow of animal populations, but little is known about long‐distance movements due to the difficulty of tracking individuals across space. We documented the natal and breeding dispersal of shrubland birds among 13 study sites in a 1000 km² area in southeastern Ohio. In addition, we radio‐marked and tracked 37 adult males of one shrubland specialist, the Yellow‐breasted Chat (Icteria virens). We banded 1925 juveniles and 2112 adults of nine shrubland species from 2002 to 2005. Of these, 33 (1.7%) juveniles were encountered in subsequent years (2003–2006) as adults (natal dispersal) and 442 (20.9%) birds initially banded as breeding adults were re‐encountered in subsequent years (breeding dispersal). Apparent survival of juvenile shrubland birds on their natal patches was 0.024 (95% CI 0.016–0.036). After accounting for the probability of detection, we found that 21% of birds banded as juveniles and recaptured as adults returned to their natal patches, whereas 78% of adult birds showed fidelity to the patch where they were originally captured. Moreover, natal dispersers tended to move farther than breeding dispersers (corrected natal median = 1.7 km ± 0.37; corrected breeding median = 0.23 km ± 0.10). We used our estimates of natal dispersal and annual apparent survival to estimate true survival at 0.11 (95% CI 0.07–0.18) for juveniles in their first year. However, this estimate was only applicable for birds dispersing within 7 km of their natal patches. Interpatch movements of radio‐marked Yellow‐breasted Chats were not uncommon, with 13 of 37 males located in more than one habitat patch. Overall, we observed low natal philopatry, but high adult site fidelity for shrubland birds in our study area. Considering the frequency of short‐distance movements observed (median = 531 m, range = 88–1045 m), clustering of patches within 1 km might facilitate use of shrubland habitat.     

Climate and density influence annual survival and movement in a migratory songbird

Assessing the drivers of survival across the annual cycle is important for understanding when and how population limitation occurs in migratory animals. Density‐dependent population regulation can occur during breeding and nonbreeding periods, and large‐scale climate cycles can also affect survival throughout the annual cycle via their effects on local weather and vegetation productivity. Most studies of survival use mark–recapture techniques to estimate apparent survival, but true survival rates remain obscured due to unknown rates of permanent emigration. This is especially problematic when assessing annual survival of migratory birds, whose movement between breeding attempts, or breeding dispersal, can be substantial. We used a multistate approach to examine drivers of annual survival and one component of breeding dispersal (habitat‐specific movements) in a population of American redstarts (Setophaga ruticilla) over 11 years in two adjacent habitat types. Annual survival displayed a curvilinear relation to the Southern Oscillation Index, with lower survival during La Niña and El Niño conditions. Although redstart density had no impact on survival, habitat‐specific density influenced local movements between habitat types, with redstarts being less likely to disperse from their previous year's breeding habitat as density within that habitat increased. This finding was strongest in males and may be explained by conspecific attraction influencing settlement decisions. Survival was lowest in young males, but movement was highest in this group, indicating that apparent survival rates were likely biased low due to permanent emigration. Our findings demonstrate the utility of examining breeding dispersal in mark–recapture studies and complement recent work using spatially explicit models of dispersal probability to obtain greater accuracy in survival estimates.     

Age‐dependent breeding dispersal and adult survival within a metapopulation of Common Terns Sterna hirundo

Dispersal is increasingly recognized as a process of fundamental importance in population dynamics and other aspects of biology. Concurrently, interest in age‐dependent effects on survival, including actuarial senescence, has increased, especially in studies of long‐lived seabirds. Nevertheless, datasets necessary for studying dispersal and age‐dependent effects are few, as these require simultaneous data collection at two or more sites over many years. We conducted a 22‐year capture‐mark‐recapture study of Common Terns Sterna hirundo at three breeding colonies 10–26 km apart in Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts, USA. All birds in the study were of known age (range 2–28 years, median 7 years, n = 3290) and 77% were of known sex. Estimates of adult recapture, survival and breeding dispersal rates were obtained for all age‐classes from 2 to 20 years. The model that acquired 100% of the QAIC_c (Akaike's Information Criterion adjusted for small sample size and overdispersion) weight in our analysis included age‐specificity in all parameters but no relationship with sex. Our study may be the first to demonstrate age‐specificity in recapture, survival and breeding dispersal rates simultaneously, using a single model. Annual rates of breeding dispersal ranged from <0.01 to 0.27, with a population‐weighted mean of 0.065; they decreased with increasing distance between colony sites and, unexpectedly, increased with age. Breeding dispersal did not increase consistently after years with predation on adults or after an attempt to displace birds from an oiled site. Survival rates did not vary among sites or years. Annual adult survival increased from 0.80 in 2‐year‐old birds to a maximum of approximately 0.88 around age 8 years and then declined to 0.76 at age 20 years, yielding strong evidence for actuarial senescence. The peak annual survival rate of 0.88 is at the low end of other estimates for Common Tern and in the lower part of the range recorded for other terns, but total numbers in the three colonies increased seven‐fold during the study. This was part of a slower increase in the regional population, with net immigration into the study colonies. Our results demonstrate the biological significance of breeding dispersal in local population dynamics and age‐related effects on survival and dispersal from a metapopulation of a long‐lived seabird.     

Contrasting effects of tropical cyclones on the annual survival of a pelagic seabird in the Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclones are renowned for their destructive nature and are an important feature of marine and coastal tropical ecosystems. Over the last 40 years, their intensity, frequency and tracks have changed, partly in response to ocean warming, and future predictions indicate that these trends are likely to continue with potential consequences for human populations and coastal ecosystems. However, our understanding of how tropical cyclones currently affect marine biodiversity, and pelagic species in particular, is limited. For seabirds, the impacts of cyclones are known to be detrimental at breeding colonies, but impacts on the annual survival of pelagic adults and juveniles remain largely unexplored and no study has simultaneously explored the direct impacts of cyclones on different life‐history stages across the annual life cycle. We used a 20‐year data set on tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean, tracking data from 122 Round Island petrels and long‐term capture–mark–recapture data to explore the impacts of tropical cyclones on the survival of adult and juvenile (first year) petrels during both the breeding and migration periods. The tracking data showed that juvenile and adult Round Island petrels utilize the three cyclone regions of the Indian Ocean and were potentially exposed to cyclones for a substantial part of their annual cycle. However, only juvenile petrel survival was affected by cyclone activity; negatively by a strong cyclone in the vicinity of the breeding colony and positively by increasing cyclone activity in the Northern Indian Ocean where they spend the majority of their first year at sea. These contrasting effects raise the intriguing prospect that the projected changes in cyclones under current climate change scenarios may have positive as well as the more commonly perceived negative impacts on marine biodiversity.     

Does breeding population trajectory and age of nesting females influence disparate nestling sex ratios in two populations of Cooper's hawks?

Offspring sex ratios at the termination of parental care should theoretically be skewed toward the less expensive sex, which in most avian species would be females, the smaller gender. Among birds, however, raptors offer an unusual dynamic because they exhibit reversed size dimorphism with females being larger than males. And thus theory would predict a preponderance of male offspring. Results for raptors and birds in general have been varied although population‐level estimates of sex ratios in avian offspring are generally at unity. Adaptive adjustment of sex ratios in avian offspring is difficult to predict perhaps in part due to a lack of life‐history details and short‐term investigations that cannot account for precision or repeatability of sex ratios across time. We conducted a novel comparative study of sex ratios in nestling Cooper's hawks (Accipiter cooperii) in two study populations across breeding generations during 11 years in Wisconsin, 2001–2011. One breeding population recently colonized metropolitan Milwaukee and exhibited rapidly increasing population growth, while the ex‐Milwaukee breeding population was stable. Following life‐history trade‐off theory and our prediction regarding this socially monogamous species in which reversed sexual size dimorphism is extreme, first‐time breeding one‐year‐old, second‐year females in both study populations produced a preponderance of the smaller and cheaper sex, males, whereas ASY (after‐second‐year), ≥2‐year‐old females in Milwaukee produced a nestling sex ratio near unity and predictably therefore a greater proportion of females compared to ASY females in ex‐Milwaukee who produced a preponderance of males. Adjustment of sex ratios in both study populations occurred at conception. Life histories and selective pressures related to breeding population trajectory in two age cohorts of nesting female Cooper's hawk likely vary, and it is possible that these differences influenced the sex ratios we documented for two age cohorts of female Cooper's hawks in Wisconsin.