Making protected areas effective for biodiversity,climate and food

The spatial extent of marine and terrestrial protected areas (PAs) was among the most intensely debated issues prior to the decision about the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) of the Convention on Biological Diversity. Positive impacts of PAs on habitats, species diversity and abundance are well documented. Yet, biodiversity loss continues unabated despite efforts to protect 17% of land and 10% of the oceans by 2020. This casts doubt on whether extending PAs to 30%, the agreed target in the Kunming-Montreal GBF, will indeed achieve meaningful biodiversity benefits. Critically, the focus on area coverage obscures the importance of PA effectiveness and overlooks concerns about the impact of PAs on other sustainability objectives. We propose a simple means of assessing and visualising the complex relationships between PA area coverage and effectiveness and their effects on biodiversity conservation, nature-based climate mitigation and food production. Our analysis illustrates how achieving a 30% PA global target could be beneficial for biodiversity and climate. It also highlights important caveats: (i) achieving lofty area coverage objectives alone will be of little benefit without concomitant improvements in effectiveness, (ii) trade-offs with food production particularly for high levels of coverage and effectiveness are likely and (iii) important differences in terrestrial and marine systems need to be recognized when setting and implementing PA targets. The CBD's call for a significant increase in PA will need to be accompanied by clear PA effectiveness goals to reduce and revert dangerous anthropogenic impacts on socio-ecological systems and biodiversity.     

Socioeconomic development shows positive links to the conservation efficiency of China's protected area network

While the protected area (PA) covers >15% of the planet's terrestrial land area and continues to expand, factors determining its effectiveness in conserving endangered species are being debated. We investigated the links between direct anthropogenic pressures, socioeconomic settings, and the coverage of vertebrate taxa by China's PA network, and indicated that high socioeconomic status and low levels of human pressure correlate with high species coverage, with threatened mammals more effectively conserved than reptiles or amphibians. Positive links between conservation outcomes and socioeconomic progress appear linked to local livelihood improvements triggering positive perceptions of local PAs—aided further by ecological compensation and tourism schemes introduced in wealthy areas and reinforced by continued positive conservation outcomes. Socioeconomic development of China's less developed regions might assist regional PA efficiency and achievement of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, while also addressing potential shortcomings from an insufficient past focus on socioeconomic impacts for biodiversity conservation.     

Gaps in mammal conservation in China: An analysis with a framework based on minimum area requirements

Climate change, habitat loss, and human disturbance are major threats to biodiversity. Protecting habitats plays a pivotal role in biodiversity conservation, and there is a global imperative to establish an effective system of protected areas (PAs) to implement habitat conservation and halt biodiversity decline. However, the protected patch size of habitat for a species is just as important for biodiversity conservation as the expansion of areas already under protection. In China, conservation management is often carried out based on administrative divisions. Therefore, here, an analytical conservation management framework was developed based on administrative divisions to assess whether the current network of PAs can effectively meet species' conservation needs using the minimum area requirements (MARs) of species as criteria for medium and large-sized mammals in China. This study found that the MAR of medium and large-sized mammals was larger in the northwest and smaller in the southeast, while taking the Hu line as the dividing line. Precipitation seasonality, elevation, annual mean temperature, and annual precipitation are the main environmental factors driving the distribution of a species MAR. Compared with MAR for each species, the maximum protected patch size of habitat is severely undersized in most provinces where those species primarily distribute, and this is particularly true for large carnivores and threatened species. The densely populated provinces of eastern China are particularly affected by this. The present study's framework can identify the provinces needing to expand PAs or implement other effective area-based conservation measures and habitat restoration. This analytical framework is also relevant for biodiversity conservation in different taxa and regions around the globe.     

中国生物多样性就地保护成效与展望

生物多样性就地保护是指通过开展自然保护地体系的建立与管理, 结合自然保护地以外其他有效的基于区域的保护措施(other effective area-based conservation measures, OECMs), 从而实现物种种群及其栖息地的保护与恢复以及保障和提升生态系统服务的目标。就地保护是实现2020年全球生物多样性保护目标最为重要的措施之一。本文从自然保护地数量与面积、代表性、有效性, 以及其他生物多样性就地保护措施等方面, 整理和综述了国内外近年来的相关报道。总体来看, 我国基本建立了具有中国特色的生物多样性就地保护与管理体系, 实施了各项生物多样性保护恢复措施, 取得了一系列重大进展。自然保护地的面积和数量均呈现上升趋势, 已覆盖陆域国土面积的18%, 对一些重要生态系统及重点保护物种的保护取得了一定成效。正在建设的10处国家公园体制试点提升了部分重点物种的保护连通性。自然保护区总体管理状况相对较好, 保护了90%以上的哺乳动物和97%的兰科植物。此外, 其他有效的基于区域的保护措施亦为生物多样性就地保护贡献了民间力量。在此基础上, 本文对照《中国生物多样性保护战略与行动计划(2011-2030年)》中对“加强生物多样性就地保护”的各项要求, 分析总结了当前我国生物多样性就地保护仍然存在的问题与不足, 具体表现在以下几个方面: 自然保护地整体保护能力仍有待提升; 生物多样性保护优先区域仍然存在保护空缺; 自然保护区管理质量有待提升; 缺乏公共协商机制; 自然保护地以外的其他就地保护工作仍在探索阶段等。在此基础上, 对将来我国生物多样性就地保护提出了进一步建议与展望: (1)制定更为具体和量化的生物多样性就地保护目标; (2)加大力度减少物种受威胁程度, 特别是受关注较少的物种; (3)以保障和提升生态系统服务为目标, 提升生态系统保护修复的系统性与整体性; (4)加强自然保护地以外的生物多样性就地保护; (5)完善长期监测体系, 为生物多样性就地保护成效评估提供数据支撑。本文可为“2020年后全球生物多样性框架”特别是就地保护目标的制定与实施提供参考。     

The future representativeness of Madagascar's protected area network in the face of climate change

With many species predicted to respond to a changing climate by shifting their distribution to climatically suitable areas, the effectiveness of static protected areas (PAs) is in question. The Madagascan PA network area has quadrupled over the past 15 years, and, although conservation planning techniques were employed to prioritise suitable areas for protection during this process, climate change impacts were not considered. We make use of species distribution models for 750 Madagascan vertebrate species to assess the potential impacts of climate change on (1) species richness across Madagascar, (2) species gain, loss and turnover in Madagascar's PAs and (3) PA network representativeness. Results indicate that Madagascar is predicted to experience substantial shifts in species richness, with most PAs predicted to experience high rates of species turnover. Provided there are no barriers to species movements, the representativeness of the current PA network will remain high for the species that are predicted to survive changes in climate by 2070, suggesting that little benefit will be gained from establishing new PAs. However, this rests on the assumption of mobility through areas currently characterised by fragmentation and anthropogenic activity, something that will require considerable expansion in conservation efforts in order to achieve.     

Local Scale Comparisons of Biodiversity as a Test for Global Protected Area Ecological Performance: A Meta-Analysis

Terrestrial protected areas (PAs) are cornerstones of global biodiversity conservation. Their efficacy in terms of maintaining biodiversity is, however, much debated. Studies to date have been unable to provide a general answer as to PA conservation efficacy because of their typically restricted geographic and/or taxonomic focus, or qualitative approaches focusing on proxies for biodiversity, such as deforestation. Given the rarity of historical data to enable comparisons of biodiversity before/after PA establishment, many smaller scale studies over the past 30 years have directly compared biodiversity inside PAs to that of surrounding areas, which provides one measure of PA ecological performance. Here we use a meta-analysis of such studies (N = 86) to test if PAs contain higher biodiversity values than surrounding areas, and so assess their contribution to determining PA efficacy. We find that PAs generally have higher abundances of individual species, higher assemblage abundances, and higher species richness values compared with alternative land uses. Local scale studies in combination thus show that PAs retain more biodiversity than alternative land use areas. Nonetheless, much variation is present in the effect sizes, which underscores the context-specificity of PA efficacy.     

自然保护地生物多样性保护研究进展

建立自然保护地是保护生物多样性最为重要的措施之一。总体来看, 自然保护地生物多样性保护研究主要围绕关键生态系统以及珍稀濒危物种等保护对象的状态以及变化两个层面进行, 并重点关注自然保护地数量与面积、保护了多少重要生态系统和物种、能否有效保护生物多样性等一系列科学问题。然而, 在自然保护地生物多样性保护研究方面, 还缺少针对上述研究领域的系统性综述。为此, 本文系统梳理了自然保护地空间布局及其与生物多样性分布的关系、自然保护地生物多样性变化及其保护成效等近20年来相关领域的研究进展。自然保护地的空间布局以及与生物多样性分布的关系主要围绕自然保护地与生物多样性在某一阶段的状态开展研究, 致力于探究自然保护地“保护多少” “代表性如何” “在哪儿保护”等一系列关键科学问题。同时, 自然保护地内的生物多样性会随着气候变化、人类活动以及自身演替等发生时空动态变化, 基于自然保护地生物多样性变化分析, 各国学者在全球尺度、国家尺度和单个自然保护地进行了大量的保护成效评估研究, 并逐渐发展出了自然保护地内外配对分析方法以提升保护成效评估的精度, 进而识别出不同自然保护地的主要影响因素。在此基础上, 本文进一步对自然保护地生物多样性保护研究提出了展望, 主要包括: (1)综合考虑自然保护地生物多样性状态和变化; (2)开展多目标协同的自然保护地空间优化布局; (3)强化自然保护地主要保护对象的识别、调查与监测; (4)提升自然保护地的质量和连通性; (5)探究自然保护地管理措施与保护成效的关联机制。本文可为“2020年后全球生物多样性框架”的制定与实施特别是在自然保护地体系建设与优化方面提供参考与借鉴。     

Protecting important sites for biodiversity contributes to meeting global conservation targets

Protected areas (PAs) are a cornerstone of conservation efforts and now cover nearly 13% of the world's land surface, with the world's governments committed to expand this to 17%. However, as biodiversity continues to decline, the effectiveness of PAs in reducing the extinction risk of species remains largely untested. We analyzed PA coverage and trends in species' extinction risk at globally significant sites for conserving birds (10,993 Important Bird Areas, IBAs) and highly threatened vertebrates and conifers (588 Alliance for Zero Extinction sites, AZEs) (referred to collectively hereafter as 'important sites'). Species occurring in important sites with greater PA coverage experienced smaller increases in extinction risk over recent decades: the increase was half as large for bird species with>50% of the IBAs at which they occur completely covered by PAs, and a third lower for birds, mammals and amphibians restricted to protected AZEs (compared with unprotected or partially protected sites). Globally, half of the important sites for biodiversity conservation remain unprotected (49% of IBAs, 51% of AZEs). While PA coverage of important sites has increased over time, the proportion of PA area covering important sites, as opposed to less important land, has declined (by 0.45-1.14% annually since 1950 for IBAs and 0.79-1.49% annually for AZEs). Thus, while appropriately located PAs may slow the rate at which species are driven towards extinction, recent PA network expansion has under-represented important sites. We conclude that better targeted expansion of PA networks would help to improve biodiversity trends.     

Assessing Local and Surrounding Threats to the Protected Area Network in a Biodiversity Hotspot: The Hengduan Mountains of Southwest China

Protected areas (PAs) not only serve as refuges of biodiversity conservation but are also part of large ecosystems and are vulnerable to change caused by human activity from surrounding lands, especially in biodiversity hotspots. Assessing threats to PAs and surrounding areas is therefore a critical step in effective conservation planning. We apply a threat framework as a means of quantitatively assessing local and surrounding threats to different types of PAs with gradient buffers, and to main ecoregions in the Hengduan Mountain Hotspot of southwest China. Our findings show that national protected areas (NPAs) have lower and significantly lower threat values (p<0.05) than provincial protected areas (PPAs) and other protected areas (OPAs), respectively, which indicates that NPAs are lands with a lower threat level and higher levels of protection and management. PAs have clear edge effects, as the proportion of areas with low threat levels decline dramatically in the 5-kilometer buffers just outside the PAs. However, NPAs suffered greater declines (58.3%) than PPAs (34.8%) and OPAs (33.4%) in the 5-kilometer buffers. Moreover, a significant positive correlation was found between the size of PAs and the proportion of areas with low threat levels that they contained in both PAs and PA buffers (p<0.01). To control or mitigate current threats at the regional scale, PA managers often require quantitative information related to threat intensities and spatial distribution. The threat assessment in the Hengduan Mountain Hotspot will be useful to policy makers and managers in their efforts to establish effective plans and target-oriented management strategies.     

What should be evaluated from a manager's perspective? Developing a salient protected area effectiveness evaluation system for managers and scientists in Spain

The System for the Integrated Assessment of Protected Areas (SIAPA) was developed as a tool to improve our knowledge on the status and trends of protected biodiversity. In order to increase SIAPA's salience and use, representatives of the main managerial and scientific protected area (PA) institutions of Spain were surveyed using a structured questionnaire. PA network managers and scientists showed a high degree of consistency in rating the most important SIAPA indicators: ‘Appropriateness of protection legislation’, ‘Degree of fulfilment of management objectives’ and ‘Effectiveness of public participation bodies’, respectively. However, PA managers perceived the ‘State of conservation’ as the most determinant factor to ascertain overall PA effectiveness whereas for scientists ‘Management’ was the most important factor. Most managers and one scientist suggested including the indicator ‘Change in extent of focal habitats’ in the SIAPA and comparing management effects inside and outside PAs. The methods and results of this study intend to streamline and standardise PA evaluation efforts in Spain and guide future developments of PA evaluation systems elsewhere.     

Tropical dry woodland loss occurs disproportionately in areas of highest conservation value

Tropical and subtropical dry woodlands are rich in biodiversity and carbon. Yet, many of these woodlands are under high deforestation pressure and remain weakly protected. Here, we assessed how deforestation dynamics relate to areas of woodland protection and to conservation priorities across the world's tropical dry woodlands. Specifically, we characterized different types of deforestation frontier from 2000 to 2020 and compared them to protected areas (PAs), Indigenous Peoples' lands and conservation areas for biodiversity, carbon and water. We found that global conservation priorities were always overrepresented in tropical dry woodlands compared to the rest of the globe (between 4% and 96% more than expected, depending on the type of conservation priority). Moreover, about 41% of all dry woodlands were characterized as deforestation frontiers, and these frontiers have been falling disproportionately in areas with important regional (i.e. tropical dry woodland) conservation assets. While deforestation frontiers were identified within all tropical dry woodland classes of woodland protection, they were lower than the average within protected areas coinciding with Indigenous Peoples' lands (23%), and within other PAs (28%). However, within PAs, deforestation frontiers have also been disproportionately affecting regional conservation assets. Many emerging deforestation frontiers were identified outside but close to PAs, highlighting a growing threat that the conserved areas of dry woodland will become isolated. Understanding how deforestation frontiers coincide with major types of current woodland protection can help target context-specific conservation policies and interventions to tropical dry woodland conservation assets (e.g. PAs in which deforestation is rampant require stronger enforcement, inactive deforestation frontiers could benefit from restoration). Our analyses also identify recurring patterns that can be used to test the transferability of governance approaches and promote learning across social–ecological contexts.     

Assessing habitat diversity and potential areas of similarity across protected areas globally

Biophysical characterization analyses of protected areas (PA) that provide information on their ecological values and potential areas with similar characteristics are needed to make informed PA network planning and management decisions. This study combines and further develops methodologies that use remote sensing and modelling to identify habitat functional types in PAs and map similar areas at the ecoregion level. The study also develops new terrestrial habitat diversity and irreplaceability indices at habitat and PA scale that allow the comparison and ranking of PAs in terms of biophysical gradients and singular environmental conditions. Six PAs were selected to highlight and discuss the results of the proposed methodology. Both individual and composite indices should be considered when trying to compare PAs to understand the overall complexity and ecological values of each PA. Results can inform planning and management of individual and protected area networks as well as identify new areas for conservation. The information provided by the model about similar habitats outside protected areas can also help assess their representativeness and support studies to strengthen ecological connectivity. Besides systematic comparisons, detailed assessments of protected areas can also be performed using medium and high-resolution input variables. This is especially relevant for protected areas in developing countries where undertaking fieldwork is very difficult and the budget devoted to conservation is limited.     

Protected areas in the world’s ecoregions: How well connected are they?

Protected areas (PAs) are the main instrument for biodiversity conservation, which has triggered the development of numerous indicators and assessments on their coverage, performance and efficiency. The connectivity of the PA networks at a global scale has however been much less explored; previous studies have either focused on particular regions of the world or have only considered some types of PAs.Here we present, and globally assess, ProtConn, an indicator of PA connectivity that (i) quantifies the percentage of a study region covered by protected connected lands, (ii) can be partitioned in several components depicting different categories of land (unprotected, protected or transboundary) through which movement between protected locations may occur, (iii) is easy to communicate, to compare with PA coverage and to use in the assessment of global targets for PA systems.We apply ProtConn to evaluate the connectivity of the PA networks in all terrestrial ecoregions of the world as of June 2016, considering a range of median dispersal distances (1–100 km) encompassing the dispersal abilities of the large majority of terrestrial vertebrates.We found that 9.3% of the world is covered by protected connected lands (average for all the world’s ecoregions) for a reference dispersal distance of 10 km, increasing up to 11.7% for the largest dispersal distance considered of 100 km. These percentages are considerably smaller than the global PA coverage of 14.7%, indicating that the spatial arrangement of PAs is only partially successful in ensuring connectivity of protected lands. The connectivity of PAs largely differed across ecoregions. Only about a third of the world’s ecoregions currently meet the Aichi Target of having 17% of the terrestrial realm covered by well-connected systems of PAs. Finally, our findings suggest that PAs with less strict management objectives (allowing the sustainable use of resources) may play a fundamental role in upholding the connectivity of the PA systems.Our analyses and indicator make it possible to identify where on the globe additional efforts are most needed in expanding or reinforcing the connectivity of PA systems, and can be also used to assess whether newly designated sites provide effective connectivity gains in the PA system by acting as corridors or stepping stones between other PAs. The results of the ProtConn indicator are available, together with a suite of other global PA indicators, in the Digital Observatory for Protected Areas of the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission.     

Protected Areas in Tropical Africa: Assessing Threats and Conservation Activities

Numerous protected areas (PAs) have been created in Africa to safeguard wildlife and other natural resources. However, significant threats from anthropogenic activities and decline of wildlife populations persist, while conservation efforts in most PAs are still minimal. We assessed the impact level of the most common threats to wildlife within PAs in tropical Africa and the relationship of conservation activities with threat impact level. We collated data on 98 PAs with tropical forest cover from 15 countries across West, Central and East Africa. For this, we assembled information about local threats as well as conservation activities from published and unpublished literature, and questionnaires sent to long-term field workers. We constructed general linear models to test the significance of specific conservation activities in relation to the threat impact level. Subsistence and commercial hunting were identified as the most common direct threats to wildlife and found to be most prevalent in West and Central Africa. Agriculture and logging represented the most common indirect threats, and were most prevalent in West Africa. We found that the long-term presence of conservation activities (such as law enforcement, research and tourism) was associated with lower threat impact levels. Our results highlight deficiencies in the management effectiveness of several PAs across tropical Africa, and conclude that PA management should invest more into conservation activities with long-term duration.     

Reconciling conservation and development in protected areas of the Global South

As cornerstones for biodiversity conservation, protected areas (PAs) are critical to safeguard biodiversity. However, PAs are criticized for their limited ecological effectiveness and their negative social impacts. This article seeks to provide an overview on the contested nature of PAs and places PAs in the tension field of conservation and development, which are diverging forces specifically in the Global South. A reconciliation of PAs as parts of a wider landscape of interlinked social-ecological systems may increase the potential of PAs to contribute to the sustainable development goals, including the creation of sustainable human-nature relationships, environmental health and landscape resilience. The environmental justice framework appears useful in the endeavour to improve the social-ecological integrity of current conservation practises and to increase the ability of PA systems to withstand shocks. Considering PAs as systems in which people and nature interact in manifold ways may help increase their integrity, but understanding these interactions requires sustainability researchers and conservation practitioners to recognize the plurality in value towards nature, nature understanding and conceptualisations. Such deep understanding seems pivotal in working towards synergies of sustainable use, biocultural diversity and wilderness. Concludingly, this article emphasizes the need for holistic approaches rather than sectoral specialisations and radicalisations to achieve arrays of sustainability goals.     

Protected areas and prime hoverfly areas: Safe haven for hoverflies or not?

The efficiency of protected areas (PAs) has often been questioned due to global decline of biodiversity. Invertebrates, especially insects, have been historically underrepresented in conservation studies. Our study focuses on hoverflies, an important group of insect pollinators and proven to be good bioindicators. Research was focused in Serbia, one of Europe's hotspots of hoverfly diversity, with a long tradition of hoverfly research, which provided sufficient information for achieving our aims: identifying areas of high hoverfly diversity, evaluating the efficiency of PAs and prime hoverfly areas (PHAs) in the conservation of hoverflies, determining how well they cover the distribution of hoverfly species, especially those of conservation concern, and testing the importance of the size of the area for conservation of hoverfly diversity. We applied weighting of the species to help stress the importance of species of conservation concern. The results indicated that PHAs cover the areas with high hoverfly diversity better than PA networks, especially when it comes to species of conservation concern. Generalized linear model results showed that the area size was a significant predictor of number of species in both PA and PHA. This indicates that area size is key when designating new areas important for conservation, but there are also other factors that need to be taken into account, such as habitat quality or suitability. Studies like this are useful in aiding designation of new areas important for conservation of certain species and in identifying sampling gaps, which could potentially aim future research in that direction.     

Interface processes between protected and unprotected areas: A global review and ways forward

Land‐use changes and the expansion of protected areas (PAs) have amplified the interaction between protected and unprotected areas worldwide. In this context, ‘interface processes' (human–nature and cross‐boundary interactions inside and around PAs) have become central to issues around the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. This scientific literature review aimed to explore current knowledge and research gaps on interface processes regarding terrestrial PAs. At first, 3,515 references related to the topic were extracted through a standardized search on the Web of Science and analyzed with scientometric techniques. Next, a full‐text analysis was conducted on a sample of 240 research papers. A keyword analysis revealed a wide diversity of research topics, from ‘pure' ecology to sociopolitical research. We found a bias in the geographical distribution of research, with half the papers focusing on eight countries. Additionally, we found that the spatial extent of cross‐boundary interactions was rarely assessed, preventing any clear delimitation of PA interactive zones. In the 240 research papers we scanned, we identified 403 processes that were studied. The ecological effects of PAs were well documented and appeared to be positive overall. In contrast, the effects of PAs on local communities were understudied and, according to the literature focusing on these, were very variable according to local contexts. Our findings highlight key research advances on interface processes, especially regarding the ecological outcomes of PAs, the influence of human activities on biodiversity, and PA governance issues. In contrast, main knowledge gaps concern the spatial extent of interactive zones, as well as the interactions between local people and conservation actions and how to promote synergies between them. While the review was limited to terrestrial PAs, its findings allow us to propose research priorities for tackling environmental and socioeconomic challenges in the face of a rapidly changing world.     

Climate change-integrated conservation strategies

Aim Conservation strategies currently include little consideration of climate change. Insights about the biotic impacts of climate change from biogeography and palaeoecology, therefore, have the potential to provide significant improvements in the effectiveness of conservation planning. We suggest a collaboration involving biogeography, ecology and applied conservation. The resulting Climate Change‐integrated Conservation Strategies (CCS) apply available tools to respond to the conservation challenges posed by climate change. Location The focus of this analysis is global, with special reference to high biodiversity areas vulnerable to climate change, particularly tropical montane settings. Methods Current tools from climatology, biogeography and ecology applicable to conservation planning in response to climate change are reviewed. Conservation challenges posed by climate change are summarized. CCS elements are elaborated that use available tools to respond to these challenges. Results Five elements of CCS are described: regional modelling; expanding protected areas; management of the matrix; regional coordination; and transfer of resources. Regional modelling uses regional climate models, biotic response models and sensitivity analysis to identify climate change impacts on biodiversity at a regional scale appropriate for conservation planning. Expansion of protected areas management and systems within the planning region are based on modelling results. Management of the matrix between protected areas provides continuity for processes and species range shifts outside of parks. Regional coordination of park and off‐park efforts allows harmonization of conservation goals across provincial and national boundaries. Finally, implementation of these CCS elements in the most biodiverse regions of the world will require technical and financial transfer of resources on a global scale. Main conclusions Collaboration across disciplines is necessary to plan conservation responses to climate change adequately. Biogeography and ecology provide insights into the effects of climate change on biodiversity that have not yet been fully integrated into conservation biology and applied conservation management. CCS provide a framework in which biogeographers, ecologists and conservation managers can collaborate to address this need. These planning exercises take place on a regional level, driven by regional climate models as well as general circulation models (GCMs), to ensure that regional climate drivers such as land use change and mesoscale topography are adequately represented. Sensitivity analysis can help address the substantial uncertainty inherent in projecting future climates and biodiversity response.     

Effectiveness of strict vs. multiple use protected areas in reducing tropical forest fires: a global analysis using matching methods

Protected areas (PAs) cover a quarter of the tropical forest estate. Yet there is debate over the effectiveness of PAs in reducing deforestation, especially when local people have rights to use the forest. A key analytic problem is the likely placement of PAs on marginal lands with low pressure for deforestation, biasing comparisons between protected and unprotected areas. Using matching techniques to control for this bias, this paper analyzes the global tropical forest biome using forest fires as a high resolution proxy for deforestation; disaggregates impacts by remoteness, a proxy for deforestation pressure; and compares strictly protected vs. multiple use PAs vs indigenous areas. Fire activity was overlaid on a 1 km map of tropical forest extent in 2000; land use change was inferred for any point experiencing one or more fires. Sampled points in pre-2000 PAs were matched with randomly selected never-protected points in the same country. Matching criteria included distance to road network, distance to major cities, elevation and slope, and rainfall. In Latin America and Asia, strict PAs substantially reduced fire incidence, but multi-use PAs were even more effective. In Latin America, where there is data on indigenous areas, these areas reduce forest fire incidence by 16 percentage points, over two and a half times as much as naïve (unmatched) comparison with unprotected areas would suggest. In Africa, more recently established strict PAs appear to be effective, but multi-use tropical forest protected areas yield few sample points, and their impacts are not robustly estimated. These results suggest that forest protection can contribute both to biodiversity conservation and CO2 mitigation goals, with particular relevance to the REDD agenda. Encouragingly, indigenous areas and multi-use protected areas can help to accomplish these goals, suggesting some compatibility between global environmental goals and support for local livelihoods.     

Assessing the vulnerability trifecta: species,climate, and anthropogenic pressures on protected areas of the Central Indian Highlands

Efficient management of protected areas (PAs) is important to ensure conservation and long-term sustenance of threatened species. It is therefore essential to understand the vulnerability of PAs in a multi-pronged approach by considering the cumulative effects of species, climatic, and anthropogenic attributes. We assessed the overall vulnerability of PAs in the Central Indian Highlands (CIH), which is a landscape of high biodiversity value. Over 81% of PAs experienced medium to high vulnerability due to anthropogenic pressures, and 68.75% of PAs faced medium to high vulnerability due to climate change and conservation status of species within the PA. Our categorization of PAs revealed that 50% of PAs were vulnerable to all 3 attributes. Further, there was a strong correlation between species and anthropogenic vulnerability indices in the PAs of the CIH landscape. Our results may help local policy makers in prioritizing the optimal and cost-effective conservation management of existing PAs, which can be extended for cost-effectiveness and efficient resource allocation of PAs, through this multipronged approach, beyond the CIH landscape.