Performance of Three Prognostic Models in Patients with Cancer in Need of Intensive Care in a Medical Center in China

Objective

The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 (SAPS 3), and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV (APACHE IV) in patients with cancer admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) in a single medical center in China.

Materials and Methods

This is a retrospective observational cohort study including nine hundred and eighty one consecutive patients over a 2-year period.

Results

The hospital mortality rate was 4.5%. When all 981 patients were evaluated, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC, 95% Confidential Intervals) of the three models in predicting hospital mortality were 0.948 (0.914–0.982), 0.863 (0.804–0.923), and 0.873 (0.813–0.934) for SAPS 3, APACHE II and APACHE IV respectively. The p values of Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics for the models were 0.759, 0.900 and 0.878 for SAPS 3, APACHE II and APACHE IV respectively. However, SAPS 3 and APACHE IV underestimated the in-hospital mortality with standardized mortality ratio (SMR) of 1.5 and 1.17 respectively, while APACHE II overestimated the in-hospital mortality with SMR of 0.72. Further analysis showed that discrimination power was better with SAPS 3 than with APACHE II and APACHE IV whether for emergency surgical and medical patients (AUROC of 0.912 vs 0.866 and 0.857) or for scheduled surgical patients (AUROC of 0.945 vs 0.834 and 0.851). Calibration was good for all models (all p > 0.05) whether for scheduled surgical patients or emergency surgical and medical patients. However, in terms of SMR, SAPS 3 was both accurate in predicting the in-hospital mortality for emergency surgical and medical patients and for scheduled surgical patients, while APACHE IV and APACHE II were not.

Conclusion

In this cohort, we found that APACHE II, APACHE IV and SAPS 3 models had good discrimination and calibration ability in predicting in-hospital mortality of critically ill patients with cancer in need of intensive care. Of these three severity scores, SAPS 3 was superior to APACHE II and APACHE IV, whether in terms of discrimination and calibration power, or standardized mortality ratios.     

The Incidence,Clinical Outcomes,and Risk Factors of Thrombocytopenia in Intra-Abdominal Infection Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Studies on the incidence and risk factors of thrombocytopenia among intra-abdominal infection patients remain absent, hindering efficacy assessments regarding thrombocytopenia prevention strategies.

Methods

We retrospectively studied 267 consecutively enrolled patients with intra-abdominal infections. Occurrence of thrombocytopenia was scanned for all patients. All-cause 28-day mortality was recorded. Variables from univariate analyses that were associated with occurrence of hospital-acquired thrombocytopenia were included in a multivariable logistic regression analysis to determine thrombocytopenia predictors.

Results

Median APACHE II score and SOFA score of the whole cohort was 12 and 3 respectively. The overall ICU mortality was 7.87% and the 28-day mortality was 8.98%. The incidence of thrombocytopenia among intra-abdominal infection patients was 21.73%. Regardless of preexisting or hospital-acquired one, thrombocytopenia is associated with an increased ICU mortality and 28-day mortality as well as length of ICU or hospital stay. A higher SOFA and ISTH score at admission were significant hospital-acquired thrombocytopenia risk factors.

Conclusions

This is the first study to identify a high incidence of thrombocytopenia in patients with intra-abdominal infections. Our findings suggest that the inflammatory milieu of intra-abdominal infections may uniquely predispose those patients to thrombocytopenia. More effective thrombocytopenia prevention strategies are necessary in intra-abdominal infection patients.     

Antipyretic Therapy in Critically Ill Patients with Sepsis: An Interaction with Body Temperature

Background and Objective

The effect of antipyretic therapy on mortality in patients with sepsis remains undetermined. The present study aimed to investigate the role of antipyretic therapy in ICU patients with sepsis by using a large clinical database.

Methods

The multiparameter intelligent monitoring in intensive care II (MIMIC- II) database was employed for the study. Adult patients with sepsis were included for analysis. Antipyretic therapy included antipyretic medication and external cooling. Multivariable model with interaction terms were employed to explore the association of antipyretic therapy and mortality risk.

Main Results

A total of 15,268 patients fulfilled inclusion criteria and were included in the study. In multivariable model by treating temperature as a continuous variable, there was significant interaction between antipyretic therapy and the maximum temperature (T_max). While antipyretic therapy had no significant effect on mortality in low temperature quintiles, antipyretic therapy was associated with increased risk of death in the quintile with body temperature >39°C (OR: 1.29, 95% CI: 1.04–1.61).

Conclusion

Our study shows that there is no beneficial effect on reducing mortality risk with the use of antipyretic therapy in ICU patients with sepsis. External cooling may even be harmful in patients with sepsis.     

Acute Kidney Injury Enhances Outcome Prediction Ability of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score in Critically Ill Patients

Introduction

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common and serious complication in intensive care unit (ICU) patients and also often part of a multiple organ failure syndrome. The sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score is an excellent tool for assessing the extent of organ dysfunction in critically ill patients. This study aimed to evaluate the outcome prediction ability of SOFA and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III score in ICU patients with AKI.

Methods

A total of 543 critically ill patients were admitted to the medical ICU of a tertiary-care hospital from July 2007 to June 2008. Demographic, clinical and laboratory variables were prospectively recorded for post hoc analysis as predictors of survival on the first day of ICU admission.

Results

One hundred and eighty-seven (34.4%) patients presented with AKI on the first day of ICU admission based on the risk of renal failure, injury to kidney, failure of kidney function, loss of kidney function, and end-stage renal failure (RIFLE) classification. Major causes of the ICU admissions involved respiratory failure (58%). Overall in-ICU mortality was 37.9% and the hospital mortality was 44.7%. The predictive accuracy for ICU mortality of SOFA (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves: 0.815±0.032) was as good as APACHE III in the AKI group. However, cumulative survival rates at 6-month follow-up following hospital discharge differed significantly (p<0.001) for SOFA score ≤10 vs. ≥11 in these ICU patients with AKI.

Conclusions

For patients coexisting with AKI admitted to ICU, this work recommends application of SOFA by physicians to assess ICU mortality because of its practicality and low cost. A SOFA score of ≥ “11” on ICU day 1 should be considered an indicator of negative short-term outcome.     

Mortality Prediction in Patients Undergoing Non-Invasive Ventilation in Intermediate Care

Background

Intermediate Care Units (ImCU) have become an alternative scenario to perform Non-Invasive Ventilation (NIV). The limited number of prognostic studies in this population support the need of mortality prediction evaluation in this context.

Objective

The objective of this study is to analyze the performance of Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II and 3 in patients undergoing NIV in an ImCU. Additionally, we searched for new variables that could be useful to customize these scores, in order to improve mortality prediction.

Design

Cohort study with prospectively collected data from all patients admitted to a single center ImCU who received NIV. The SAPS II and 3 scores with their respective predicted mortality rates were calculated. Discrimination and calibration were evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test for the models, respectively. Binary logistic regression was used to identify new variables to customize the scores for mortality prediction in this setting.

Patients

The study included 241 patients consecutively admitted to an ImCU staffed by hospitalists from April 2006 to December 2013.

Key Results

The observed in-hospital mortality was 32.4% resulting in a Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR) of 1.35 for SAPS II and 0.68 for SAPS 3. Mortality discrimination based on the AUC was 0.73 for SAPS II and 0.69 for SAPS 3. Customized models including immunosuppression, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), acute pulmonary edema (APE), lactic acid, pCO2 and haemoglobin levels showed better discrimination than old scores with similar calibration power.

Conclusions

These results suggest that SAPS II and 3 should be customized with additional patient-risk factors to improve mortality prediction in patients undergoing NIV in intermediate care.     

Robotic versus Laparoscopic Distal Pancreatectomy: A Meta-Analysis of Short-Term Outcomes

AIM

To compare the safety and efficacy of robotic-assisted distal pancreatectomy (RADP) and laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy (LDP).

METHODS

A literature search of PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library database up to June 30, 2015 was performed. The following key words were used: pancreas, distal pancreatectomy, pancreatic, laparoscopic, laparoscopy, robotic, and robotic-assisted. Fixed and random effects models were applied. Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale.

RESULTS

Seven non-randomized controlled trials involving 568 patients met the inclusion criteria. Compared with LDP, RADP was associated with longer operating time, lower estimated blood loss, a higher spleen-preservation rate, and shorter hospital stay. There was no significant difference in transfusion, conversion to open surgery, R0 resection rate, lymph nodes harvested, overall complications, severe complications, pancreatic fistula, severe pancreatic fistula, ICU stay, total cost, and 30-day mortality between the two groups.

CONCLUSION

RADP is a safe and feasible alternative to LDP with regard to short-term outcomes. Further studies on the long-term outcomes of these surgical techniques are required.

Core tip

To date, there is no consensus on whether laparoscopic or robotic-assisted distal pancreatectomy is more beneficial to the patient. This is the first meta-analysis to compare laparoscopic and robotic-assisted distal pancreatectomy. We found that robotic-assisted distal pancreatectomy was associated with longer operating time, lower estimated blood loss, a higher spleen-preservation rate, and shorter hospital stay. There was no significant difference in transfusion, conversion to open surgery, overall complications, severe complications, pancreatic fistula, severe pancreatic fistula, ICU stay, total cost, and 30-day mortality between the two groups.     

Nucleated Red Blood Cells as Predictors of All-Cause Mortality in Cardiac Intensive Care Unit Patients: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background

The presence of nucleated red blood cells (NRBCs) in the peripheral blood of critically ill patients is associated with a poorer prognosis, though data on cardiovascular critical care patients is lacking. The aim of the present study was to assess the role of NRBCs as a predictor of intensive care unit (ICU) and in hospital all-cause mortality among cardiologic patients.

Methods

NRBCs were measured daily in consecutive cardiac ICU patients, including individuals with both coronary and non-coronary acute cardiac care. We excluded patients younger than 18 years, with cancer or hematological disease, on glucocorticoid therapy, those that were readmitted after hospital discharge and patients who died in the first 24 hours after admission. We performed a multiple logistic analysis to identify independent predictors of mortality.

Results

We included 152 patients (60.6 ± 16.8 years, 51.8% female, median ICU stay of 7 [4–11] days). The prevalence of NRBCs was 54.6% (83/152). The presence of NRBC was associated with a higher ICU mortality (49.4% vs 21.7%, P<0.001) as well as in-hospital mortality (61.4% vs 33.3%, p = 0.001). NRBC were equally associated with mortality among coronary disease (64.71% vs 32.5% [OR 3.80; 95%CI: 1.45–10.0; p = 0.007]) and non-coronary disease patients (61.45% vs 33.3% [OR 3.19; 95%CI: 1.63–6.21; p<0.001]). In a multivariable model, the inclusion of NRBC to the APACHE II score resulted in a significant improvement in the discrimination (p = 0.01).

Conclusions

NRBC are predictors of all-cause in-hospital mortality in patients admitted to a cardiac ICU. This predictive value is independent and complementary to the well validated APACHE II score.     

Scoring System for Mortality in Patients Diagnosed with and Treated Surgically for Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma with a 20-Year Follow-Up

Background

Differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) is associated with an increased mortality. Few studies have constructed predictive models of all-cause mortality with a high discriminating power for patients with this disease that would enable us to determine which patients are more likely to die.

Objective

To construct a predictive model of all-cause mortality at 5, 10, 15 and 20 years for patients diagnosed with and treated surgically for DTC for use as a mobile application.

Design

We undertook a retrospective cohort study using data from 1984 to 2013.

Setting

All patients diagnosed with and treated surgically for DTC at a general university hospital covering a population of around 200,000 inhabitants in Spain.

Participants

The study involved 201 patients diagnosed with and treated surgically for DTC (174, papillary; 27, follicular).

Exposures

Age, gender, town, family history, type of surgery, type of cancer, histological subtype, microcarcinoma, multicentricity, TNM staging system, diagnostic stage, permanent post-operative complications, local and regional tumor persistence, distant metastasis, and radioiodine therapy.

Main outcome measure

All-cause mortality.

Methods

A Cox multivariate regression model was constructed to determine which variables at diagnosis were associated with mortality. Using the model a risk table was constructed based on the sum of all points to estimate the likelihood of death. This was then incorporated into a mobile application.

Results

The mean follow-up was 8.8±6.7 years. All-cause mortality was 12.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.3–17.6%). Predictive variables: older age, local tumor persistence and distant metastasis. The area under the ROC curve was 0.81 (95% CI: 0.72–0.91, p<0.001).

Conclusion

This study provides a practical clinical tool giving a simple and rapid indication (via a mobile application) of which patients with DTC are at risk of dying in 5, 10, 15 or 20 years. Nonetheless, caution should be exercised until validation studies have corroborated our results.     

30-Day Mortality in Acute Pulmonary Embolism: Prognostic Value of Clinical Scores and Anamnestic Features

Purpose

Identification of high-risk patients with pulmonary embolism is vital. The aim of the present study was to examine clinical scores, their single items, and anamnestic features in their ability to predict 30-day mortality.

Materials and Methods

A retrospective, single-center study from 06/2005 to 01/2010 was performed. Inclusion criteria were presence of pulmonary embolism, availability of patient records and 30-day follow-up. The following clinical scores were calculated: Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, original and simplified pulmonary embolism severity index, Glasgow Coma Scale, and euroSCORE II.

Results

In the study group of 365 patients 39 patients (10.7%) died within 30 days due to pulmonary embolism. From all examined scores and parameters the best predictor of 30-day mortality were the Glasgow Coma scale (≤ 10) and parameters of the circulatory system including presence of mechanical ventilation, arterial pH (< 7.335), and systolic blood pressure (< 99 mm Hg).

Conclusions

Easy to ascertain circulatory parameters have the same or higher prognostic value than the clinical scores that were applied in this study. From all clinical scores studied the Glasgow Coma Scale was the most time- and cost-efficient one.     

Neonatal Mortality and Long-Term Outcome of Infants Born between 27 and 32 Weeks of Gestational Age in Breech Presentation: The EPIPAGE Cohort Study

Objective

To determine whether breech presentation is an independent risk factor for neonatal morbidity, mortality, or long-term neurologic morbidity in very preterm infants.

Design

Prospective population-based cohort.

Population

Singletons infants without congenital malformations born from 27 to 32 completed weeks of gestation enrolled in France in 1997 in the EPIPAGE cohort.

Methods

The neonatal and long-term follow-up outcomes of preterm infants were compared between those in breech presentation and those in vertex presentation. The relation of fetal presentation with neonatal mortality and neurodevelopmental outcomes was assessed using multiple logistic regression models.

Results

Among the 1518 infants alive at onset of labor included in this analysis (351 in breech presentation), 1392 were alive at discharge. Among those eligible to follow up and alive at 8 years, follow-up data were available for 1188 children. Neonatal mortality was significantly higher among breech than vertex infants (10.8% vs. 7.5%, P = 0.05). However the differences were not significant after controlling for potential confounders. Neonatal morbidity did not differ significantly according to fetal presentation. Severe cerebral palsy was less frequent in the group born in breech compared to vertex presentation but there was no difference after adjustment. There was no difference according to fetal presentation in cognitive deficiencies/learning disabilities or overall deficiencies.

Conclusion

Our data suggest that breech presentation is not an independent risk factor for neonatal mortality or long-term neurologic deficiencies among very preterm infants.     

Increased Plasma Levels of Heparin-Binding Protein on Admission to Intensive Care Are Associated with Respiratory and Circulatory Failure

Purpose

Heparin-binding protein (HBP) is released by granulocytes and has been shown to increase vascular permeability in experimental investigations. Increased vascular permeability in the lungs can lead to fluid accumulation in alveoli and respiratory failure. A generalized increase in vascular permeability leads to loss of circulating blood volume and circulatory failure. We hypothesized that plasma concentrations of HBP on admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) would be associated with decreased oxygenation or circulatory failure.

Methods

This is a prospective, observational study in a mixed 8-bed ICU. We investigated concentrations of HBP in plasma at admission to the ICU from 278 patients. Simplified acute physiology score (SAPS) 3 was recorded on admission. Sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores were recorded daily for three days.

Results

Median SAPS 3 was 58.8 (48–70) and 30-day mortality 64/278 (23%). There was an association between high plasma concentrations of HBP on admission with decreased oxygenation (p<0.001) as well as with circulatory failure (p<0.001), after 48–72 hours in the ICU. There was an association between concentrations of HBP on admission and 30-day mortality (p = 0.002). ROC curves showed areas under the curve of 0,62 for decreased oxygenation, 0,65 for circulatory failure and 0,64 for mortality.

Conclusions

A high concentration of HBP in plasma on admission to the ICU is associated with respiratory and circulatory failure later during the ICU care period. It is also associated with increased 30-day mortality. Despite being an interesting biomarker for the composite ICU population it´s predictive value at the individual patient level is low.     

Hip Fracture in the Elderly: A Re-Analysis of the EPIDOS Study with Causal Bayesian Networks

Objectives

Hip fractures commonly result in permanent disability, institutionalization or death in elderly. Existing hip-fracture predicting tools are underused in clinical practice, partly due to their lack of intuitive interpretation. By use of a graphical layer, Bayesian network models could increase the attractiveness of fracture prediction tools. Our aim was to study the potential contribution of a causal Bayesian network in this clinical setting. A logistic regression was performed as a standard control approach to check the robustness of the causal Bayesian network approach.

Setting

EPIDOS is a multicenter study, conducted in an ambulatory care setting in five French cities between 1992 and 1996 and updated in 2010. The study included 7598 women aged 75 years or older, in which fractures were assessed quarterly during 4 years. A causal Bayesian network and a logistic regression were performed on EPIDOS data to describe major variables involved in hip fractures occurrences.

Results

Both models had similar association estimations and predictive performances. They detected gait speed and mineral bone density as variables the most involved in the fracture process. The causal Bayesian network showed that gait speed and bone mineral density were directly connected to fracture and seem to mediate the influence of all the other variables included in our model. The logistic regression approach detected multiple interactions involving psychotropic drug use, age and bone mineral density.

Conclusion

Both approaches retrieved similar variables as predictors of hip fractures. However, Bayesian network highlighted the whole web of relation between the variables involved in the analysis, suggesting a possible mechanism leading to hip fracture. According to the latter results, intervention focusing concomitantly on gait speed and bone mineral density may be necessary for an optimal prevention of hip fracture occurrence in elderly people.     

Economic Burden of Hypoglycemia in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus from Korea

Background

Hypoglycemia is a very serious complication in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and affects the economic burden of treatment. This study aims to create models of the cost of treating hypoglycemia in patients with T2DM based upon physician estimates of medical resource usage.

Methods

Using a literature review and personal advice from endocrinologists and emergency physicians, we developed several models for managing patients with hypoglycemia. The final model was approved by the consulting experts. We also developed 3 unique surveys to allow endocrinologists, emergency room (ER) physicians, and primary care physicians to evaluate the resource usage of patients with hypoglycemia. Medical costs were calculated by multiplying the estimated medical resource usage by the corresponding health insurance medical care costs reported in 2014.

Results

In total, 40 endocrinologists, 20 ER physicians, and 30 primary care physicians completed the survey. We identified 12 types of standard medical models for secondary or tertiary hospitals and 4 for primary care clinics based on the use of ER, general ward, or intensive care unit (ICU) and patients’ status of consciousness and self-respiration. Estimated medical costs per person per hypoglycemic event ranged from $17.28 to $1,857.09 for secondary and tertiary hospitals. These costs were higher for patients who were unconscious and for those requiring ICU admission.

Conclusion

Hypoglycemia has a substantial impact on the medical costs and its prevention will result in economic benefits for T2DM patients and society.     

Assessment of Fibrinolysis in Sepsis Patients with Urokinase Modified Thromboelastography

Introduction

Impairment of fibrinolysis during sepsis is associated with worse outcome. Early identification of this condition could be of interest. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether a modified point-of-care viscoelastic hemostatic assay can detect sepsis-induced impairment of fibrinolysis and to correlate impaired fibrinolysis with morbidity and mortality.

Methods

This single center observational prospective pilot study was performed in an adult Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of a tertiary academic hospital. Forty consecutive patients admitted to the ICU with severe sepsis or septic shock were included. Forty healthy individuals served as controls. We modified conventional kaolin activated thromboelastography (TEG) adding urokinase to improve assessment of fibrinolysis in real time (UK-TEG). TEG, UK-TEG, plasminogen activator inhibitor (PAI)-1, thrombin-activatable fibrinolysis inhibitor (TAFI), d-dimer, DIC scores and morbidity (rated with the SOFA score) were measured upon ICU admission. Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) of mortality at ICU discharge.

Results

UK-TEG revealed a greater impairment of fibrinolysis in sepsis patients compared to healthy individuals confirmed by PAI-1. TAFI was not different between sepsis patients and healthy individuals. 18/40 sepsis patients had fibrinolysis impaired according to UK-TEG and showed higher SOFA score (8 (6–13) vs 5 (4–7), p = 0.03), higher mortality (39% vs 5%, p = 0.01) and greater markers of cellular damage (lactate levels, LDH and bilirubin). Mortality at ICU discharge was predicted by the degree of fibrinolysis impairment measured by UK-TEG Ly30 (%) parameter (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.93–0.98, p = 0.003).

Conclusions

Sepsis-induced impairment of fibrinolysis detected at UK-TEG was associated with increased markers of cellular damage, morbidity and mortality.     

A Second Look at the Association between Gender and Mortality on Antiretroviral Therapy

Objective

We assessed the association between gender and mortality on antiretroviral therapy (ART) using identical models with and without sex-specific categories for weight and hemoglobin.

Design

Cohort study of adult patients on ART.

Setting

GHESKIO Clinic in Port-au-Prince, Haiti.

Participants

4,717 ART-naïve adult patients consecutively enrolled on ART at GHESKIO from 2003 to 2008.

Main Outcome Measure

Mortality on ART; multivariable analyses were conducted with and without sex-specific categories for weight and hemoglobin.

Results

In Haiti, male gender was associated with mortality (OR 1.61; 95% CI: 1.30–2.00) in multivariable analyses with hemoglobin and weight included as control variables, but not when sex-specific interactions with hemoglobin and weight were used.

Conclusions

If sex-specific categories are omitted, multivariable analyses indicate a higher risk of mortality for males vs. females of the same weight and hemoglobin. However, because males have higher normal values for weight and hemoglobin, the males in this comparison would generally have poorer health status than the females. This may explain why gender differences in mortality are sometimes observed after controlling for differences in baseline variables when gender-specific interactions with weight and hemoglobin are omitted.     

Individual Organ Failure and Concomitant Risk of Mortality Differs According to the Type of Admission to ICU – A Retrospective Study of SOFA Score of 23,795 Patients

Introduction

Organ dysfunction or failure after the first days of ICU treatment and subsequent mortality with respect to the type of intensive care unit (ICU) admission is poorly elucidated. Therefore we analyzed the association of ICU mortality and admission for medical (M), scheduled surgery (ScS) or unscheduled surgery (US) patients mirrored by the occurrence of organ dysfunction/failure (OD/OF) after the first 72h of ICU stay.

Methods

For this retrospective cohort study (23,795 patients; DIVI registry; German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care Medicine (DIVI)) organ dysfunction or failure were derived from the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (excluding the Glasgow Coma Scale). SOFA scores were collected on admission to ICU and 72h later. For patients with a length of stay of at least five days, a multivariate analysis was performed for individual OD/OF on day three.

Results

M patients had the lowest prevalence of cardiovascular failure (M 31%; ScS 35%; US 38%), and the highest prevalence of respiratory (M 24%; ScS 13%; US 17%) and renal failure (M 10%; ScS 6%; US 7%). Risk of death was highest for M- and ScS-patients in those with respiratory failure (OR; M 2.4; ScS 2.4; US 1.4) and for surgical patients with renal failure (OR; M 1.7; ScS 2.7; US 2.4).

Conclusion

The dynamic evolution of OD/OF within 72h after ICU admission and mortality differed between patients depending on their types of admission. This has to be considered to exclude a systematic bias during multi-center trials.     

Elevated Intracranial Pressure and Cerebral Edema following Permanent MCA Occlusion in an Ovine Model

Introduction

Malignant middle cerebral artery (MCA) stroke has a disproportionately high mortality due to the rapid development of refractory space-occupying cerebral edema. Animal models are essential in developing successful anti-edema therapies; however to date poor clinical translation has been associated with the predominately used rodent models. As such, large animal gyrencephalic models of stroke are urgently needed. The aim of the study was to characterize the intracranial pressure (ICP) response to MCA occlusion in our recently developed ovine stroke model.

Materials and Methods

30 adult female Merino sheep (n = 8–12/gp) were randomized to sham surgery, temporary or permanent proximal MCA occlusion. ICP and brain tissue oxygen were monitored for 24 hours under general anesthesia. MRI, infarct volume with triphenyltetrazolium chloride (TTC) staining and histology were performed.

Results

No increase in ICP, radiological evidence of ischemia within the MCA territory but without space-occupying edema, and TTC infarct volumes of 7.9+/-5.1% were seen with temporary MCAO. Permanent MCAO resulted in significantly elevated ICP, accompanied by 30% mortality, radiological evidence of space-occupying cerebral edema and TTC infarct volumes of 27.4+/-6.4%.

Conclusions

Permanent proximal MCAO in the sheep results in space-occupying cerebral edema, raised ICP and mortality similar to human malignant MCA stroke. This animal model may prove useful for pre-clinical testing of anti-edema therapies that have shown promise in rodent studies.     

Risk Models and Scoring Systems for Predicting the Prognosis in Critically Ill Cirrhotic Patients with Acute Kidney Injury: A Prospective Validation Study

Background

Cirrhotic patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) show extremely high mortality rates. We have proposed the MBRS scoring system, which can be used for assessing patients on the day of admission to the ICU; this new system involves determination of mean arterial pressure (MAP) and bilirubin level and assessment of respiratory failure and sepsis. We had used this scoring system to analyze the prognosis of ICU cirrhotic patients with AKI in 2008, and the current study was an external validation of this scoring system.

Methods

A total of 190 cirrhotic patients with AKI were admitted to the ICU between March 2008 and February 2011. We prospectively analyzed and recorded the data for 31 demographic parameters and some clinical characteristic variables on day 1 of admission to the ICU; these variables were considered as predictors of mortality.

Results

The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 73.2% (139/190), and the 6-month mortality rate was 83.2% (158/190). Hepatitis B viral infection (43%) was observed to be the cause of liver disease in most of the patients. Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that the MBRS and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III (ACPACHE III) scores determined on the first day of admission to the ICU were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients. In the analysis of the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves, the MBRS scores showed good discrimination (AUROC: 0.863±0.032, p<0.001) in predicting in-hospital mortality.

Conclusion

On the basis of the results of this external validation, we conclude that the MBRS scoring system is a reproducible, simple, easy-to-apply evaluation tool that can increase the prediction accuracy of short-term prognosis in critically ill cirrhotic patients with AKI.     

The Added Value of Medical Testing in Underwriting Life Insurance

Background

In present-day life-insurance medical underwriting practice the risk assessment starts with a standard health declaration (SHD). Indication for additional medical screening depends predominantly on age and amount of insured capital. From a medical perspective it is questionable whether there is an association between the level of insured capital and medical risk in terms of mortality. The aim of the study is to examine the prognostic value of parameters from the health declaration and application form on extra mortality based on results from additional medical testing.

Methods

A history register-based cohort study was conducted including about 15.000 application files accepted between 2007 and 2010. Blood pressure, lipids, cotinine and glucose levels were used as dependent variables in logistic regression models. Resampling validation was applied using 250 bootstrap samples to calculate area under the curves (AUC’s). The AUC was used to discriminate between persons with and without at least 25% extra mortality.

Results

BMI and the overall assessment of the health declaration by an insurance physician or medical underwriter showed the strongest discrimination in multivariable analysis. Including all variables at minimum cut-off levels resulted in an AUC of 0.710 while by using a model with BMI, the assessment of the health declaration and gender, the AUC was 0.708. Including all variables at maximum cut-off levels lead to an AUC of 0.743 while a model with BMI, the assessment of the health declaration and age resulted in an AUC of 0.741.

Conclusions

The outcome of this study shows that BMI and the overall assessment of the health declaration were the dominant variables to discriminate between applicants for life-insurance with and without at least 25 percent extra mortality. The variable insured capital set by insurers as factor for additional medical testing could not be established in this study population. The indication for additional medical testing at underwriting life-insurance can possibly be done on limited variables instead of the obligatory medical testing based on age and the amount of insured capital.