Performance of SAPS II and SAPS 3 in Intermediate Care

Objective

The efficacy and reliability of prognostic scores has been described extensively for intensive care, but their role for predicting mortality in intermediate care patients is uncertain. To provide more information in this field, we have analyzed the performance of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II and SAPS 3 in a single center intermediate care unit (ImCU).

Materials and Methods

Cohort study with prospectively collected data from all patients admitted to a single center ImCU in Pamplona, Spain, from April 2006 to April 2012. The SAPS II and SAPS 3 scores with respective predicted mortality rates were calculated according to standard coefficients. Discrimination was evaluated by calculating the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and calibration with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test. Standardized mortality ratios (SMR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were calculated for each model.

Results

The study included 607 patients. The observed in-hospital mortality was 20.1% resulting in a SMR of 0.87 (95% CI 0.73-1.04) for SAPS II and 0.56 (95% CI 0.47-0.67) for SAPS 3. Both scores showed acceptable discrimination, with an AUROC of 0.76 (95% CI 0.71-0.80) for SAPS II and 0.75 (95% CI 0.71- 0.80) for SAPS 3. Calibration curves showed similar performance based on Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit C-test: (X²=12.9, p=0.113) for SAPS II and (X²=4.07, p=0.851) for SAPS 3.

Conclusions

Although both scores overpredicted mortality, SAPS II showed better discrimination for patients admitted to ImCU in terms of SMR.     

Mortality Prediction in Patients Undergoing Non-Invasive Ventilation in Intermediate Care

Background

Intermediate Care Units (ImCU) have become an alternative scenario to perform Non-Invasive Ventilation (NIV). The limited number of prognostic studies in this population support the need of mortality prediction evaluation in this context.

Objective

The objective of this study is to analyze the performance of Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II and 3 in patients undergoing NIV in an ImCU. Additionally, we searched for new variables that could be useful to customize these scores, in order to improve mortality prediction.

Design

Cohort study with prospectively collected data from all patients admitted to a single center ImCU who received NIV. The SAPS II and 3 scores with their respective predicted mortality rates were calculated. Discrimination and calibration were evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test for the models, respectively. Binary logistic regression was used to identify new variables to customize the scores for mortality prediction in this setting.

Patients

The study included 241 patients consecutively admitted to an ImCU staffed by hospitalists from April 2006 to December 2013.

Key Results

The observed in-hospital mortality was 32.4% resulting in a Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR) of 1.35 for SAPS II and 0.68 for SAPS 3. Mortality discrimination based on the AUC was 0.73 for SAPS II and 0.69 for SAPS 3. Customized models including immunosuppression, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), acute pulmonary edema (APE), lactic acid, pCO2 and haemoglobin levels showed better discrimination than old scores with similar calibration power.

Conclusions

These results suggest that SAPS II and 3 should be customized with additional patient-risk factors to improve mortality prediction in patients undergoing NIV in intermediate care.     

APACHE III Outcome Prediction in Patients Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit with Sepsis Associated Acute Lung Injury

Background and objective

Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III score has been widely used for prediction of clinical outcomes in mixed critically ill patients. However, it has not been validated in patients with sepsis-associated acute lung injury (ALI). The aim of the study was to explore the calibration and predictive value of APACHE III in patients with sepsis-associated ALI.

Method

The study was a secondary analysis of a prospective randomized controlled trial investigating the efficacy of rosuvastatin in sepsis-associated ALI (Statins for Acutely Injured Lungs from Sepsis, SAILS). The study population was sepsis-related ALI patients. The primary outcome of the current study was the same as in the original trial, 60-day in-hospital mortality, defined as death before hospital discharge, censored 60 days after enrollment. Discrimination of APACHE III was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) with its 95% CI. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic was used to assess the calibration of APACHE III. The Brier score was reported to represent the overall performance of APACHE III in predicting outcome.

Main results

A total of 745 patients were included in the study, including 540 survivors and 205 non-survivors. Non-survivors were significantly older than survivors (59.71±16.17 vs 52.00±15.92 years, p<0.001). The primary causes of ALI were also different between survivors and non-survivors (p = 0.017). Survivors were more likely to have the cause of sepsis than non-survivors (21.2% vs. 15.1%). APACHE III score was higher in non-survivors than in survivors (106.72±27.30 vs. 88.42±26.86; p<0.001). Discrimination of APACHE III to predict mortality in ALI patients was moderate with an AUC of 0.68 (95% confidence interval: 0.64–0.73).

Conclusion

this study for the first time validated the discrimination of APACHE III in sepsis associated ALI patients. The result shows that APACHE III score has moderate predictive value for in-hospital mortality among adults with sepsis-associated acute lung injury.     

APACHEIV和APACHEII预测危重症患者预后的比较性研究

目的：比较不同版本的急性生理和慢性健康评分（Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation,APACHE）（APACHEⅣ和APACHEⅡ）对于成人危重症患者预后评估的应用价值。方法：收集2011年1月至10月入住我院重症监护病房患者的临床资料,分别计算其入ICU24小时内的APACHEⅣ和APACHEII评分,并计算其各自预测病死率,通过标准化死亡率（Standardized Mortality Ratios,SMR）来比较这两个评分系统对危重症患者预后评估的准确性。结果：本研究共纳入184例患者,死亡率为41．8％。APACHEII得分为25±8分,预测死亡率为53．31％;APACHEⅣ得分为93±24分,预测死亡率为30．76％。APACHEII预测死亡率比实际死亡率高（SMR为0．78,95％CI0．614-0．972）;APACHEIV预测死亡率比实际死亡率低（SMR=1.35,95％CI1．066-1．688）。但二者对于危重症患者死亡率的预测没有统计学差异（P〉0．05）。结论：APACHEII和APACHEIV对于危重症患者死亡率预测准确性高;与APACHEII相比,APACHEIV无表现出更为优越的性能,二者之间的差异不存在统计学意义。     

Predictors of mortality in patients successfully weaned from extracorporeal membrane oxygenation

Purpose

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) has been utilized for critically ill patients, such as those with life-threatening respiratory failure or post-cardiotomy cardiogenic shock. This study compares the predictive value of Acute Physiology, Age, and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), and Organ System Failure (OSF) obtained on the first day of ECMO removal, and the Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN) stages obtained at 48 hours post-ECMO removal (AKIN_48-hour) in terms of hospital mortality for critically ill patients.

Methods

This study reviewed the medical records of 119 critically ill patients successfully weaned from ECMO at the specialized intensive care unit of a tertiary-care university hospital between July 2006 and October 2010. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were collected retrospectively as survival predictors.

Results

Overall mortality rate was 26%. The most common condition requiring ECMO support was cardiogenic shock. By using the areas under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve, the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score displayed good discriminative power (AUROC 0.805±0.055, p<0.001). Furthermore, multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that daily urine output on the second day of ECMO removal (UO_{24–48 hour}), mean arterial pressure (MAP), and SOFA score on the day of ECMO removal were independent predictors of hospital mortality. Finally, cumulative survival rates at 6-month follow-up differed significantly (p<0.001) for a SOFA score≤13 relative to those for a SOFA score>13.

Conclusions

Following successful ECMO weaning, the SOFA score proved a reproducible evaluation tool with good prognostic abilities.     

An Application of Bayesian Approach in Modeling Risk of Death in an Intensive Care Unit

Background and Objectives

There are not many studies that attempt to model intensive care unit (ICU) risk of death in developing countries, especially in South East Asia. The aim of this study was to propose and describe application of a Bayesian approach in modeling in-ICU deaths in a Malaysian ICU.

Methods

This was a prospective study in a mixed medical-surgery ICU in a multidisciplinary tertiary referral hospital in Malaysia. Data collection included variables that were defined in Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV (APACHE IV) model. Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation approach was applied in the development of four multivariate logistic regression predictive models for the ICU, where the main outcome measure was in-ICU mortality risk. The performance of the models were assessed through overall model fit, discrimination and calibration measures. Results from the Bayesian models were also compared against results obtained using frequentist maximum likelihood method.

Results

The study involved 1,286 consecutive ICU admissions between January 1, 2009 and June 30, 2010, of which 1,111 met the inclusion criteria. Patients who were admitted to the ICU were generally younger, predominantly male, with low co-morbidity load and mostly under mechanical ventilation. The overall in-ICU mortality rate was 18.5% and the overall mean Acute Physiology Score (APS) was 68.5. All four models exhibited good discrimination, with area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values approximately 0.8. Calibration was acceptable (Hosmer-Lemeshow p-values > 0.05) for all models, except for model M3. Model M1 was identified as the model with the best overall performance in this study.

Conclusion

Four prediction models were proposed, where the best model was chosen based on its overall performance in this study. This study has also demonstrated the promising potential of the Bayesian MCMC approach as an alternative in the analysis and modeling of in-ICU mortality outcomes.     

Nucleated Red Blood Cells as Predictors of All-Cause Mortality in Cardiac Intensive Care Unit Patients: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background

The presence of nucleated red blood cells (NRBCs) in the peripheral blood of critically ill patients is associated with a poorer prognosis, though data on cardiovascular critical care patients is lacking. The aim of the present study was to assess the role of NRBCs as a predictor of intensive care unit (ICU) and in hospital all-cause mortality among cardiologic patients.

Methods

NRBCs were measured daily in consecutive cardiac ICU patients, including individuals with both coronary and non-coronary acute cardiac care. We excluded patients younger than 18 years, with cancer or hematological disease, on glucocorticoid therapy, those that were readmitted after hospital discharge and patients who died in the first 24 hours after admission. We performed a multiple logistic analysis to identify independent predictors of mortality.

Results

We included 152 patients (60.6 ± 16.8 years, 51.8% female, median ICU stay of 7 [4–11] days). The prevalence of NRBCs was 54.6% (83/152). The presence of NRBC was associated with a higher ICU mortality (49.4% vs 21.7%, P<0.001) as well as in-hospital mortality (61.4% vs 33.3%, p = 0.001). NRBC were equally associated with mortality among coronary disease (64.71% vs 32.5% [OR 3.80; 95%CI: 1.45–10.0; p = 0.007]) and non-coronary disease patients (61.45% vs 33.3% [OR 3.19; 95%CI: 1.63–6.21; p<0.001]). In a multivariable model, the inclusion of NRBC to the APACHE II score resulted in a significant improvement in the discrimination (p = 0.01).

Conclusions

NRBC are predictors of all-cause in-hospital mortality in patients admitted to a cardiac ICU. This predictive value is independent and complementary to the well validated APACHE II score.     

Risk Models and Scoring Systems for Predicting the Prognosis in Critically Ill Cirrhotic Patients with Acute Kidney Injury: A Prospective Validation Study

Background

Cirrhotic patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) show extremely high mortality rates. We have proposed the MBRS scoring system, which can be used for assessing patients on the day of admission to the ICU; this new system involves determination of mean arterial pressure (MAP) and bilirubin level and assessment of respiratory failure and sepsis. We had used this scoring system to analyze the prognosis of ICU cirrhotic patients with AKI in 2008, and the current study was an external validation of this scoring system.

Methods

A total of 190 cirrhotic patients with AKI were admitted to the ICU between March 2008 and February 2011. We prospectively analyzed and recorded the data for 31 demographic parameters and some clinical characteristic variables on day 1 of admission to the ICU; these variables were considered as predictors of mortality.

Results

The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 73.2% (139/190), and the 6-month mortality rate was 83.2% (158/190). Hepatitis B viral infection (43%) was observed to be the cause of liver disease in most of the patients. Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that the MBRS and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III (ACPACHE III) scores determined on the first day of admission to the ICU were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients. In the analysis of the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves, the MBRS scores showed good discrimination (AUROC: 0.863±0.032, p<0.001) in predicting in-hospital mortality.

Conclusion

On the basis of the results of this external validation, we conclude that the MBRS scoring system is a reproducible, simple, easy-to-apply evaluation tool that can increase the prediction accuracy of short-term prognosis in critically ill cirrhotic patients with AKI.     

Factors Affecting Outcome in Acute Hypertriglyceridemic Pancreatitis Treated with Plasma Exchange: An Observational Cohort Study

Objectives

The optimal therapy for hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis, especially the role of plasma exchange (PE), is not entirely clear. The aim of our large, single-center, observational, cohort study was to analyze the factors affecting outcome in hypertriglyceridemic pancreatitis treated with PE.

Methods

We included 111 episodes of hypertriglyceridemic pancreatitis treated with PE, which occurred in 103 different patients. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, triglycerides, delay to first PE, and PE treatment details were retrospectively obtained from the patients’ records. The main outcome measures were length of hospitalization and in-hospital mortality.

Results

The patients were 47±9 years old and the median APACHE II score at first PE was 4 (inter-quartile range (IQR) 2–7). There was a seasonal variation in the incidence of hypertriglyceridemic pancreatitis, and the recurrence rate was 1.6% per year. Triglycerides at presentation did not correlate with APACHE II or influence the outcome. The mean reduction in triglycerides during PE was 59% (from 44±31 to 18±15 mmol/l), which was twice the reduction observed during conservative treatment (27% daily). The median hospital stay was 16 days (IQR 10–24) and in-hospital mortality was 5%. The median delay to first PE was 35 hours (IQR 24–52), and there was no difference in mortality in the early and late PE groups (7% vs. 6%, p = 0.79). The group with citrate anticoagulation during PE had a significantly lower mortality than the group with heparin anticoagulation (1% vs. 11%, p = 0.04), and citrate was an independent predictor also in the multivariate model (p = 0.049).

Conclusions

PE effectively reduced serum triglycerides faster than could be expected with conservative treatment. The delay in PE therapy did not influence survival. We found that citrate anticoagulation during PE was associated with reduced mortality, which should be confirmed in a randomized study.     

Risk Factors for Acute Kidney Injury and In-Hospital Mortality in Patients Receiving Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation

Background and Objectives

Although acute kidney injury (AKI) is the most frequent complication in patients receiving extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), few studies have been conducted on the risk factors of AKI. We performed this study to identify the risk factors of AKI associated with in-hospital mortality.

Methods

Data from 322 adult patients receiving ECMO were analyzed. AKI and its stages were defined according to Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) classifications. Variables within 24 h before ECMO insertion were collected and analyzed for the associations with AKI and in-hospital mortality.

Results

Stage 3 AKI was associated with in-hospital mortality, with a hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI) of 2.690 (1.472–4.915) compared to non-AKI (p = 0.001). The simplified acute physiology score 2 (SAPS2) and serum sodium level were also associated with in-hospital mortality, with HRs of 1.02 (1.004–1.035) per 1 score increase (p = 0.01) and 1.042 (1.014–1.070) per 1 mmol/L increase (p = 0.003). The initial pump speed of ECMO was significantly related to in-hospital mortality with a HR of 1.333 (1.020–1.742) per 1,000 rpm increase (p = 0.04). The pump speed was also associated with AKI (p = 0.02) and stage 3 AKI (p = 0.03) with ORs (95% CI) of 2.018 (1.129–3.609) and 1.576 (1.058–2.348), respectively. We also found that the red cell distribution width (RDW) above 14.1% was significantly related to stage 3 AKI.

Conclusion

The initial pump speed of ECMO was a significant risk factor of in-hospital mortality and AKI in patients receiving ECMO. The RDW was a risk factor of stage 3 AKI.     

30-Day Mortality in Acute Pulmonary Embolism: Prognostic Value of Clinical Scores and Anamnestic Features

Purpose

Identification of high-risk patients with pulmonary embolism is vital. The aim of the present study was to examine clinical scores, their single items, and anamnestic features in their ability to predict 30-day mortality.

Materials and Methods

A retrospective, single-center study from 06/2005 to 01/2010 was performed. Inclusion criteria were presence of pulmonary embolism, availability of patient records and 30-day follow-up. The following clinical scores were calculated: Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, original and simplified pulmonary embolism severity index, Glasgow Coma Scale, and euroSCORE II.

Results

In the study group of 365 patients 39 patients (10.7%) died within 30 days due to pulmonary embolism. From all examined scores and parameters the best predictor of 30-day mortality were the Glasgow Coma scale (≤ 10) and parameters of the circulatory system including presence of mechanical ventilation, arterial pH (< 7.335), and systolic blood pressure (< 99 mm Hg).

Conclusions

Easy to ascertain circulatory parameters have the same or higher prognostic value than the clinical scores that were applied in this study. From all clinical scores studied the Glasgow Coma Scale was the most time- and cost-efficient one.     

Nurses and Physicians in a Medical Admission Unit Can Accurately Predict Mortality of Acutely Admitted Patients: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background

There exist several risk stratification systems for predicting mortality of emergency patients. However, some are complex in clinical use and others have been developed using suboptimal methodology. The objective was to evaluate the capability of the staff at a medical admission unit (MAU) to use clinical intuition to predict in-hospital mortality of acutely admitted patients.

Methods

This is an observational prospective cohort study of adult patients (15 years or older) admitted to a MAU at a regional teaching hospital. The nursing staff and physicians predicted in-hospital mortality upon the patients'' arrival. We calculated discriminatory power as the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUROC) and accuracy of prediction (calibration) by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.

Results

We had a total of 2,848 admissions (2,463 patients). 89 (3.1%) died while admitted. The nursing staff assessed 2,404 admissions and predicted mortality in 1,820 (63.9%). AUROC was 0.823 (95% CI: 0.762–0.884) and calibration poor. Physicians assessed 738 admissions and predicted mortality in 734 (25.8% of all admissions). AUROC was 0.761 (95% CI: 0.657–0.864) and calibration poor. AUROC and calibration increased with experience. When nursing staff and physicians were in agreement (±5%), discriminatory power was very high, 0.898 (95% CI: 0.773–1.000), and calibration almost perfect. Combining an objective risk prediction score with staff predictions added very little.

Conclusions

Using only clinical intuition, staff in a medical admission unit has a good ability to identify patients at increased risk of dying while admitted. When nursing staff and physicians agreed on their prediction, discriminatory power and calibration were excellent.     

The Cold-Inducible RNA-Binding Protein (CIRP) Level in Peripheral Blood Predicts Sepsis Outcome

Objectives

Sepsis is a lethal and complex clinical syndrome caused by infection or suspected infection. Cold-inducible RNA-binding protein (CIRP) is a widely distributed cold-shock protein that plays a proinflammatory role in sepsis and that may induce organ damage. However, clinical studies regarding the use of CIRP for the prognostic evaluation of sepsis are lacking. The purpose of this research was to investigate the prognostic significance of peripheral blood concentrations of CIRP in sepsis. Sepsis was assessed using several common measures, including the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score; the Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score; the lactate, serum creatinine, and procalcitonin (PCT) levels; the white blood cell (WBC) count; and the neutrophil ratio (N%).

Design

Sixty-nine adult patients with sepsis were enrolled in this study. According to the mortality data from the hospital, 38 patients were survivors, and 31 were nonsurvivors. The plasma levels of the biomarkers were measured and the APACHE II and SOFA scores were calculated within 24 hours of patient enrollment into our study. The CIRP level was measured via ELISA.

Results

The plasma level of CIRP was significantly higher in the nonsurvivors than in the survivors (median (IQR) 4.99 (2.37–30.17) ng/mL and 1.68 (1.41–13.90) ng/mL, respectively; p = 0.013). The correlations of the CIRP level with the APACHE II score (r = 0.248, p = 0.040, n = 69), the SOFA score (r = 0.323, p = 0.007, n = 69), the serum creatinine level (r = 0.316, p = 0.008, n = 69), and the PCT level (r = 0.282, p = 0.019, n = 69) were significant. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis showed that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) for the CIRP level was 0.674 (p = 0.013). According to Cox proportional hazards models, the CIRP level independently predicts sepsis mortality. When the CIRP level in the peripheral blood increased by 10 ng/mL, the mortality risk increased by 1.05-fold (p = 0.012). Thus, the CIRP level reflects the degree of renal injury but does not predict the severity of sepsis or organ damage.

Conclusion

An elevated plasma concentration of CIRP was significantly associated with poor prognosis among patients with sepsis. Therefore, CIRP is a potential predictor of sepsis prognosis.     

Long-Term Sequelae of Severe Acute Kidney Injury in the Critically Ill Patient without Comorbidity: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background and Objectives

Acute kidney injury (AKI) necessitating renal replacement therapy (RRT) is associated with high mortality and increased risk for end stage renal disease. However, it is unknown if this applies to patients with a preliminary unremarkable medical history. The purpose of this study was to describe overall and renal survival in critically ill patients with AKI necessitating RRT stratified by the presence of comorbidity.

Design, Setting, Participants, and Measurements

A retrospective cohort study was performed, between 1994 and 2010, including all adult critically ill patients with AKI necessitating RRT, stratified by the presence of comorbidity. Logistic regression, survival curve and cox proportional hazards analyses were used to evaluate overall and renal survival. Standardized mortality rate (SMR) analysis was performed to compare long-term survival to the predicted survival in the Dutch population.

Results

Of the 1067 patients included only 96(9.0%) had no comorbidity. Hospital mortality was 56.6% versus 43.8% in patients with and without comorbidity, respectively. In those who survived hospitalization 10-year survival was 45.0% and 86.0%, respectively. Adjusted for age, sex and year of treatment, absence of comorbidity was not associated with hospital mortality (OR=0.74, 95%-CI=0.47-1.15), while absence of comorbidity was associated with better long-term survival (adjusted HR=0.28, 95%-CI = 0.14-0.58). Compared to the Dutch population, patients without comorbidity had a similar mortality risk (SMR=1.6, 95%-CI=0.7-3.2), while this was increased in patients with comorbidity (SMR=4.8, 95%-CI=4.1-5.5). Regarding chronic dialysis dependency, 10-year renal survival rates were 76.0% and 92.9% in patients with and without comorbidity, respectively. Absence of comorbidity was associated with better renal survival (adjusted HR=0.24, 95%-CI=0.07-0.76).

Conclusions

While hospital mortality remains excessively high, the absence of comorbidity in critically ill patients with RRT-requiring AKI is associated with a relative good long-term prognosis in those who survive hospitalization.     

Acute kidney injury biomarkers for patients in a coronary care unit: a prospective cohort study

Background

Renal dysfunction is an established predictor of all-cause mortality in intensive care units. This study analyzed the outcomes of coronary care unit (CCU) patients and evaluated several biomarkers of acute kidney injury (AKI), including neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), interleukin-18 (IL-18) and cystatin C (CysC) on the first day of CCU admission.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Serum and urinary samples collected from 150 patients in the coronary care unit of a tertiary care university hospital between September 2009 and August 2010 were tested for NGAL, IL-18 and CysC. Prospective demographic, clinical and laboratory data were evaluated as predictors of survival in this patient group. The most common cause of CCU admission was acute myocardial infarction (80%). According to Acute Kidney Injury Network criteria, 28.7% (43/150) of CCU patients had AKI of varying severity. Cumulative survival rates at 6-month follow-up following hospital discharge differed significantly (p<0.05) between patients with AKI versus those without AKI. For predicting AKI, serum CysC displayed an excellent areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) (0.895±0.031, p<0.001). The overall 180-day survival rate was 88.7% (133/150). Multiple Cox logistic regression hazard analysis revealed that urinary NGAL, serum IL-18, Acute Physiology, Age and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) and sodium on CCU admission day one were independent risk factors for 6-month mortality. In terms of 6-month mortality, urinary NGAL had the best discriminatory power, the best Youden index, and the highest overall correctness of prediction.

Conclusions

Our data showed that serum CysC has the best discriminative power for predicting AKI in CCU patients. However, urinary NGAL and serum IL-18 are associated with short-term mortality in these critically ill patients.     

Dynamic Changes in Amino Acid Concentration Profiles in Patients with Sepsis

Objectives

The goal of this work was to explore the dynamic concentration profiles of 42 amino acids and the significance of these profiles in relation to sepsis, with the aim of providing guidance for clinical therapies.

Methods

Thirty-five critically ill patients with sepsis were included. These patients were further divided into sepsis (12 cases) and severe sepsis (23 cases) groups or survivor (20 cases) and non-survivor (15 cases) groups. Serum samples from the patients were collected on days 1, 3, 5, 7, 10, and 14 following intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and the serum concentrations of 42 amino acids were measured.

Results

The metabolic spectrum of the amino acids changed dramatically in patients with sepsis. As the disease progressed further or with poor prognosis, the levels of the different amino acids gradually increased, decreased, or fluctuated over time. The concentrations of sulfur-containing amino acids (SAAs), especially taurine, decreased significantly as the severity of sepsis worsened or with poor prognosis of the patient. The serum concentrations of SAAs, especially taurine, exhibited weak negative correlations with the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) (r=-0.319) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II (r=-0.325) scores. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of cystine, taurine, and SAA levels and the SOFA and APACHE II scores, which denoted disease prognosis, were 0.623, 0.674, 0.678, 0.86, and 0.857, respectively.

Conclusions

Critically ill patients with disorders of amino acid metabolism, especially of SAAs such as cystine and taurine, may provide an indicator of the need for the nutritional support of sepsis in the clinic.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrial.gov identifier NCT01818830.     

Design and Performance of a New Severity Score for Intermediate Care

Background

Application of illness-severity scores in Intermediate Care Units (ImCU) shows conflicting results. The aim of the study is to design a severity-of-illness score for patients admitted to an ImCU.

Methods

We performed a retrospective observational study in a single academic medical centre in Pamplona, Spain. Demographics, past medical history, reasons for admission, physiological parameters at admission and during the first 24 hours of ImCU stay, laboratory variables and survival to hospital discharge were recorded. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify variables for mortality prediction.

Results

A total of 743 patients were included. The final multivariable model (derivation cohort = 554 patients) contained only 9 variables obtained at admission to the ImCU: previous length of stay 7 days (6 points), health-care related infection (11), metastatic cancer (9), immunosuppressive therapy (6), Glasgow comma scale 12 (10), need of non-invasive ventilation (14), platelets 50000/mcL (9), urea 0.6 g/L (10) and bilirubin 4 mg/dL (9). The ImCU severity score (ImCUSS) is generated by summing the individual point values, and the formula for determining the expected in-hospital mortality risk is: e^{ImCUSS points*0.099 – 4,111} / (1 + e^{ImCUSS points*0.099 – 4,11}1). The model showed adequate calibration and discrimination. Performance of ImCUSS (validation cohort = 189 patients) was comparable to that of SAPS II and 3. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit C test was χ² 8.078 (p=0.326) and the area under receiver operating curve 0.802.

Conclusions

ImCUSS, specially designed for intermediate care, is based on easy to obtain variables at admission to ImCU. Additionally, it shows a notable performance in terms of calibration and mortality discrimination.     

Current Situation and Associated Factors of Withdrawing or Withholding Life Support to Patients in an Intensive Care Unit of Cancer Center in China

Objectives

To investigate the current situation and analyze the associated factors of withdrawing or withholding life support in the intensive care unit (ICU) of our cancer center.

Methods

Three hundred and twenty-two cancer patients in critical status were admitted to our ICU in 2010 and 2011. They were included in the study and were classified into two groups: withdrawing or withholding life support (WWLS), and full life support (FLS). Demographic information and clinical data were collected and compared between the two groups. Factors associated with withdrawing or withholding life support were analyzed with univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis.

Results

Eighty-two of the 322 cases (25.5% of all) made the decisions to withdraw or withhold life support. Emergency or critical condition at hospital admission, higher scores of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) in 12 hours after ICU admission, financial difficulties and humanistic care requirements are important factors associated with withdrawing or withholding life support.

Conclusions

Withdrawing or withholding life support is not uncommon in critically ill cancer patients in China. Characteristics and associated factors of the decision-making are related to the current medical system, medical resources and traditional culture of the country.     

The Decrease of Peripheral Blood CD4+ T Cells Indicates Abdominal Compartment Syndrome in Severe Acute Pancreatitis

Objective

Few data are available on the role of T lymphocytes and inflammatory cytokines in abdominal compartment syndrome (ACS) in severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). We conducted a retrospective study to assess the risk factors associated with ACS in SAP.

Methods

A total of 76 SAP patients who were admitted within 24 hours after symptom onset in our study. There were 36 patients suffering from ACS and 40 from intra-abdominal hypertension (IAH). On the 1^st, 3^rd and 7^th days after hospital admission, the following variables were assessed: serum value of C-reactive protein (CRP), and the proportions of peripheral CD4⁺ and CD8⁺ T lymphocytes. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, and computed tomography severity index (CTSI) score were assessed on days 1 and 7 after hospitalization.

Results

Compared with the patients with IAH, ACS patients showed statistically higher CRP value on 7^th day after hospital admission, proportions of CD4⁺ T cells on days 1, 3, 7 and CD4⁺ / CD8⁺ ratio on day 1 were significantly lower (P < 0.05, respectively). A CD4⁺ T cell proportion of 30.3% on the 1^st day indicated ACS with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.774, a sensitivity with 82.5% and specificity with 72.0%, respectively. Sensitivity / specificity for predicting ACS in SAP patients on day 1 was 70.0% / 68.0% for CD4⁺ / CD8⁺ ratio, 72.2% / 65.0% for APACHE II score.

Conclusions

The reduction of peripheral blood CD4⁺ T lymphocytes is associated with ACS in SAP, and may act as a potential predictor of ACS in SAP.     

Retrospective Evaluation of New Chinese Diagnostic Scoring System for Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation

Objectives

To retrospectively validate the new Chinese DIC scoring system (CDSS).

Methods

This study retrospectively collected the information of 619 patients (371 cases with non-hematologic malignancies, 248 cases with hematologic malignancies) who suspected of DIC in Wuhan Union Hospital during 2013-4 to 2014-6. We validated CDSS by comparing it with three leading scoring systems, from International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis (ISTH), Japanese Association for Acute Medicine (JAAM) and Japanese Ministry of Health and Welfare (JMHW), and evaluated its prognostic value by 28 days mortality, APACHE II and SOFA score.

Results

In non-hematologic malignancies, CDSS was more specific than JAAM (72.55% vs. 50.49%, p<0.05) and more sensitive than ISTH (77.07% vs. 62.03%, p<0.05). In hematologic malignancies, the area under the ROC curve of CDSS was larger than ISTH and JMHW (0.933 vs. 0.889, p<0.01 with ISTH, 0.944 vs. 0.845, p<0.01 with JMHW). In addition, the 28-day mortality rate, SOFA scores, APACHE II scores of DIC patients diagnosed by CDSS were significantly greater than non-DIC (P <0.05).

Conclusions

We are the first group to propose CDSS. It emphasized the values of the clinical manifestations, the rapidly declining platelet count, APTT in the diagnosis of DIC and used D-dimer as the fibrin-related maker. DIC with hematological malignancies was treated as a special part. In this study we can see that CDSS displayed an acceptable property for the diagnosis of DIC with appropriate sensitivity and specificity, and also had a good prognostic value for DIC patients.