基于投入产出分析的北京市虚拟水核算

城市化进程的加快与工农业的迅速发展使城市水消耗量日趋增加。水资源短缺不仅会造成居民生活质量下降,还会制约社会经济的可持续发展。从贸易和消费的角度核算虚拟水可为研究城市水资源管理提供新的视角。通过投入产出分析了构建了城市系统虚拟水核算模型,利用虚拟水直接和完全用水系数、虚拟水消费量等指标分析城市虚拟水消耗和虚拟水进出口特征。以北京市为例,利用2012年北京市投入产出表和部门的水资源消耗数据核算不同部门的用水系数、最终消费虚拟水量、虚拟水进出口贸易量及部门间虚拟水流转量。结果表明:北京市为虚拟水净进口城市,净进口虚拟水量6.77×10~9m~3,相当于北京市虚拟水用水总量(8.25×10~9m~3)的82%,农业和制造业为主要虚拟水进口部门;北京市虚拟水出口结构存在不合理之处,经济投入产出表中各部门出口总额占最终消费的79.9%,但出口产品消耗的虚拟水占了最终消费隐含虚拟水的85.04%,其中农产品消耗6.7%虚拟水但经济收益仅占1%,说明北京市出口以较大的虚拟水消耗量换取了较少的经济收益,需要减少虚拟水含量较大但经济价值不高的产品出口(如农产品);识别出的主要虚拟水流出-流入关系部门包括农业-制造业,农业-服务业和制造业-建筑业等部门的关联关系,可成为减少间接水消耗的关键路径。     

“山地-绿洲-荒漠”复合系统土地利用变化的生态系统服务权衡与协同效应——以张掖市为例

开展复合生态系统土地利用变化的生态服务效应研究可为优化国土空间格局和强化生态系统管理提供重要的基础依据。以干旱区"山地-绿洲-荒漠"复合系统的典型区域张掖市为例，基于1987年、2000年和2018年3期土地利用数据，以乡级行政区为基本单元，引入相对优势度指数划分山地、绿洲、荒漠子系统，研究复合系统的土地利用变化特征及生态系统服务权衡/协同效应。结果表明：（1）张掖市复合系统呈现地域分异特征，由南部山地系统，中部绿洲系统和北部荒漠系统构成；山地系统以林地和草地为主，绿洲系统以耕地和建设用地为主，荒漠系统以未利用地为主。（2）从时间上看，2000-2018年各系统的土地利用变化更强烈，其中，绿洲系统的耕地面积增加量最大，为363.08km²，荒漠系统的建设用地面积增加幅度最大，为78.23%。各系统土地利用转移模式为：山地系统以草地转耕地为主，绿洲系统和荒漠系统以未利用地转耕地为主。（3）张掖市复合系统的生态服务价值呈增加趋势，其中，荒漠系统生态服务价值量的增幅最大，各子系统的价值量之间的关系表现为山地系统 > 绿洲系统 > 荒漠系统，耕地对各系统生态服务价值贡献量最大。（4）张掖市土地利用变化的协同效应大于权衡效应，其中荒漠系统的生态服务之间均为协同关系，山地系统中供给服务与其他服务呈现权衡关系，占比32.73%，绿洲系统中调节服务与其他服务呈现权衡关系，占比18.18%。     

基于多区域投入产出分析的京津冀地区虚拟水核算

通过贸易与消费调控实现区域水资源优化配置已成为缓解地区水资源压力的途径之一。跨区域投入产出分析可为地区间虚拟水贸易战略提供依据。基于2012年京津冀地区投入产出表与生产用水量构建了跨地区虚拟水核算模型,计算了隐含在经济贸易中的虚拟水总量及各地区各部门的直接用水系数、完全用水系数和拉动系数,分析了各部门虚拟水进出口情况,识别了重点耗水部门。结果表明:京津冀地区呈现虚拟水净出口状态,其中净出口部门主要为北京的服务与交通业,河北的农业和制造业。京津冀的农业、矿业和水供应业在生产过程中直接消耗水量大,应注重提升用水效率及节水技术的开发;三地制造业、建筑业和服务与交通业的平均拉动系数较大,这说明其他部门生产活动对该部门依赖性较大,其单位产出的提高将带动整个地区更多虚拟水量的投入。此外,河北的农业和制造业为京津冀各部门输送了大量虚拟水,为各部门生产提供了支撑,是节水的重点部门,应着重调整其产业结构,并从直接和间接用水两方面入手减少水资源消耗。计算了京津冀地区不同部门的直接、间接水资源消耗、水资源消耗拉动系数,以及部门间的虚拟水贸易情况,结果可为该地区部门间水资源配置和虚拟水战略的制定提供基础。     

北京市水足迹

水资源短缺、水质污染等已成为北京可持续发展的制约因素,水资源利用问题愈发受到关注。水足迹的研究将人们的生产、消费与水资源的消耗联系起来,全面真实地揭示水资源利用情况。本文基于水足迹理论评价了北京水资源利用情况,结果表明:(1)2012年,北京市水足迹为352.6亿m3,人均水足迹为1704 m3,远超统计数据中总供水量35.9亿m3和人均用水量193.3 m3,水资源面临巨大压力。(2)北京市城镇和农村居民对虚拟水的消耗存在差异性,除动物产品外,农村居民对于粮食虚拟水的消耗相对较高,人均每年103.5 m3,而城镇人均每年72.5 m3,次于干鲜瓜果92.4 m3。(3)动物产品在虚拟水消耗中占据了最大的比重,说明了北京市居民对动物产品消耗量相对较高,也反映出动物产品单位产品虚拟水含量较高。为此,在虚拟水贸易中,可适当增加动物产品进口代替本地动物产品的养殖生产,降低水资源的消耗。     

从城市到城市群：京津冀物质代谢特征及影响因素

随着城市化进程和一体化战略的持续推进,城市管理者急需了解城市规律以消减生态-资源-环境挑战,并提供坚实物质基础。以京津冀城市群及其组成城市为研究对象,创新性地从城市群和城市两尺度核算并分析了2000—2017年物质消耗状况及变化趋势,识别并对比了主要贡献物质、贡献部门和影响因素。研究表明：(1)研究期间,京津冀城市群物质消耗量总体上升。从物质类型看,主要由非金属矿物(>34.2%)拉动;从产业结构看,受到工业部门(>58%)绝对影响。首要驱动因素为经济规模(>50%)。(2)各城市物质消耗量与城市群较为类似,总体也呈增长态势,几乎均受到非金属矿物和工业部门驱动,且经济规模起到正向促进作用,不同的是物质消耗强度作用类型多样,且产业结构效应在城市中贡献更为突出。研究结果在一定程度上明确了城市及城市群代谢的规律,能够为优化资源利用效率和资源配置结构奠定基础,为城市及城市群生态管理与调控提供切实可行的落力点。     

基于投入产出表的北京市产业生态效率

提高生态效率对协调经济发展与环境保护的关系至关重要。为了了解北京市产业转型过程中各产业部门生态效率的变化趋势,识别提高影响北京市产业生态效率的关键部门,基于北京市投入产出表,运用指标体系法,选取水资源效率,以及废水、二氧化硫、工业固体废弃物的环境效率作为生态效率的衡量指标,核算了北京市2007、2010和2012年各部门的水资源效率以及2005、2007和2010年各部门的环境效率,并比较分析了各部门的水资源的完全用水系数以及污染物的完全排放系数,计算各部门之间完全排放量的相互贡献比例,识别了提高生态效率的关键部门。研究结果:(1)2007—2012年,北京市各部门水资源效率和2005—2010年废水、二氧化硫(SO_2)、工业固体废弃物的环境效率整体呈波动上升趋势。(2)农林牧渔业和废品废料部门是提高水资源效率的关键部门。(3)水的生产和供应业、化学工业、食品制造及烟草加工业、纺织业和造纸印刷及文教体育用品制造业是提高废水环境效率的关键部门。(4)石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业、非金属矿物制品业、金属冶炼及压延加工业、电力及热力的生产和供应业是提高SO_2环境效率的关键部门。(5)煤炭开采和洗选业、金属矿采选业、木材加工及家具制造业、非金属矿物制品业、金属冶炼及压延加工业、电力及热力的生产和供应业、水的生产和供应业是提高工业固体废弃物环境效率的关键部门。     

“双碳”目标下东北三省水-能源纽带关系及网络特征分析

厘清水-能源联动关系，优化水-能源消费结构是实现“碳达峰、碳中和”的首要途径。构建区域资源-经济投入产出模型，以2017年为基准年对东北三省水资源和能源消耗进行测算，并通过展布虚拟水-能源足迹的空间转移变化，分析部门资源流通状况，在此基础上耦合多源数据构建水-能源系统生态网络分析模型，探究水-能源网络耦合特征。结果显示：(1)2017年东北三省直接水资源消费总量为561.97亿m~3,能源隐含水总量为30.48亿m~3,水资源隐含能消费量为699.25万tce,直接能源消费量为40579.95万tce,虚拟水足迹为474.13亿m~3,虚拟能源足迹为54668.6万tce;(2)虚拟水足迹部门转移变化为：辽宁省最大输入路径为食品制造及烟草加工业-农业，吉林省和黑龙江省输入路径则相反；虚拟能源部门转移变化中最大流通部门分别为：建筑业-第三产业/金属冶炼及制品业、采选业-化学工业。(3)水-能源网络循环率均低于40‰,竞争关系是水-能源网络效用矩阵关系中主流关系；在三省中，吉林省水-能源网络的协作性最优，生态网络处于更为稳定的状态之中；水-能源网络耦合后，各省虚拟资源网络共生指数呈现不同程...     

陇东黄土高原地区资源消耗、环境污染与经济增长的耦合关系——以庆阳市为例

环境污染与经济增长及资源消耗与经济增长的关系,一直是环境经济学与资源经济学的热点研究问题。但针对小尺度区域,将资源消耗、经济增长与环境污染三者纳入一个体系开展的分析研究较少。本文采用2000—2013年庆阳市主要的环境污染物排放量、资源消耗量和人均GDP数据,运用计量经济学方法,通过协整检验、基于向量自回归(VAR)模型的脉冲响应函数及方差分解分析,对三者之间的耦合关系进行了研究。结果表明:三者存在协整关系,庆阳市经济增长与环境污染、资源消耗之间存在一种长期均衡关系。化学需氧量和烟尘的排放对庆阳市经济增长的影响不大,但二氧化硫排放量、能源消耗量和水资源消耗量对其经济增长的影响较大。庆阳市经济增长是以污染物排放量增多和资源的大量消耗为代价的,经济增长是其环境污染、资源消耗的重要原因。经济增长对资源和环境的依赖度较强,环境污染、资源消耗与经济增长之间还未出现解耦,存在着相互促进的耦合作用关系。     

基于山地-绿洲-荒漠系统的生态系统服务正负价值测算——以新疆玛纳斯河流域为例

基于不同生态单元分析生态系统服务正负价值有助于全面客观地了解生态系统服务的异质性。选择典型山地-绿洲-荒漠系统(Mountain-Oasis-Desert System,MODS)下的玛纳斯河流域作为研究区,以1990年、1995年、2000年、2005年、2010年及2015年Landsat系列遥感影像为数据源,采用修正后的生态系统服务价值系数对不同生态单元下的生态系统服务正负价值进行估算。结果表明:(1)1990—2015年玛纳斯河流域土地利用/覆被变化较为显著,耕地、水域及建设用地面积呈现增加趋势,林地、草地及未利用地面积呈减少趋势,其中耕地和未利用地面积变化最为剧烈,建设用地增幅最大,林地减幅最大。(2)研究时段内,研究区正向价值远高于负向价值,且净价值小幅度增加。正向价值在经历"增加-减少-减少-增加-增加"的变化过程后呈现增加趋势,并呈现山地区绿洲区荒漠区的特征;各负向价值均表现为不同程度的增大趋势,其中温室气体排放、化肥流失及水资源消耗是流域内最为突出的负向生态系统服务,三者价值之和占比在不同时间段上均达90%以上;净价值由研究初期的8947.89×10~6元增加至末期的10409.99×10~6元,年均增加0.65%。(3)人均生态系统服务净价值呈现下降趋势,流域环境压力增大。     

基于“水-能-碳”消费视角的福建省资源环境与经济增长脱钩关系

厘清资源环境消耗与经济增长之间的脱钩关系及驱动机制,对福建省发挥国家生态文明建设示范区作用具有重要意义。本研究通过构建“水-能-碳”资源环境投入产出模型,对福建省行业“水-能-碳”资源环境压力进行分析,基于脱钩理论和对数平均迪式指数分解法对福建省各行业“水-能-碳”资源环境消耗与经济增长之间的脱钩状态及其驱动因素进行研究。结果表明: 2002—2017年,福建省由虚拟水主导的资源环境压力转变为隐含碳为主导的“水-能-碳”多维资源环境压力,且各行业部门差异较大。从行业部门来看,生产供应业具有较大的直接资源环境压力,制造业部门的间接资源环境压力显著。从脱钩关系来看,福建省的资源环境消耗与经济增长的脱钩状态表现良好,主要表现为弱脱钩和强脱钩。从驱动因素来看,经济效应和人口效应是抑制脱钩的主要因素,而技术效应和结构效应则对脱钩起到促进作用。     

基于投入产出方法的甘肃省水足迹及虚拟水贸易研究

随着社会化进程的加快,地处西北内陆的甘肃省正面临日益严峻的水资源短缺危机,社会经济发展受到一定程度的制约,水生态环境也呈现出恶化的趋势。水足迹是近年来提出的衡量人类活动对于水生态系统影响的指标,能够帮助决策者制定水资源管理及保护的政策,从而实现地区水资源的可持续利用。运用单区域投入产出方法计算并分析了甘肃省1997、2002和2007年第一产业、第二产业和第三产业部门的虚拟水强度、水足迹以及虚拟水贸易情况。结果显示:(1)甘肃省第一产业的虚拟水强度最高,但呈现出逐年下降的趋势,水足迹也因此有所下降;(2)虚拟水贸易方面,甘肃省以虚拟水净出口为主,尤其是第一产业,每年虚拟水净出口量约全省总水资源量的10%。建议甘肃省继续巩固已有的节水成果,调整产业结构,大力发展节水型产业和高新技术产业。同时建议适当调整贸易格局,合理控制虚拟水出口,以缓解当地水资源短缺危机,保障地区水安全与生态安全。     

Measuring CO2 emission linkages with the hypothetical extraction method (HEM)

The issue of CO₂ emission has become a major issue causing greater concern to the global economies due to its potential environmental effects and impact on climate change. In order to address this issue and mitigate its harmful effects on the environment, it is imperative to reduce CO₂ emission drastically and fairly quickly. In this paper we have been focusing on alternative linkage methodologies for measuring CO₂ emission, which entails linkages among the productive sectors in an economy. Methods, dealing with inter-sectoral carbon linkage measures can be summarized into two main categories, i.e. (a) the concept of traditional backward and forward linkages and (b) hypothetical extraction method (HEM). The (HEM) method is used to hypothetically extract a sector from an economic system and examine the influence of this extraction on other sectors in an economy. In this study we will evolve the environmentally extended input–output model to measure the CO₂ emission linkages among the productive sectors in Italy using data obtained in 2011. Using the HEM method, the backward linkage emission and forward linkage emission are calculated to characterize the behavior of these sectors. The results obtained from these measures will enable us to formulate hypothesis about the direction and strength of the relationship between various linkages and will also indicate which key CO₂ emitter sector measures are most similar and which are most dissimilar. According to the size of the various linkage measures, all sectors of the economy can be grouped into four categories. These measures allow us to examine and identify those sectors, which deserve more consideration in formulating mitigation policies.     

Reckoning perverse outcomes of resource conservation policies using the Ecological Footprint

Spatially expanding economies threaten the status of basic natural resources. In particular, wildlife habitats rarely benefit. Apart from protected areas, political-economic decision-making is ill-prepared to accommodate wildlife habitats with standard valuation methods. In some cases habitat loss is an inadvertent outcome of resource conservation policies intended to lower resource consumption.We recognize the term resource conservation as multifaceted, with a range of meanings from protecting wildlife habitats to efficiently allocating and using materials and energy. Resource conservation policies that spur economic benefits may produce unwanted outcomes. This is partly because linkages between economic and conservation goals seem tangential. Moreover, relevant information is imperfect and predictive tools are limited. This is particularly true for land converting impacts, which are often addressed after the fact, not during policy formulation, and can lead to successive resource degradation.We argue for the need to calculate the positive and negative land converting impacts from resource conservation policies that may expand the economy. Using the Ecological Footprint (EF) approach, we tested for potentially perverse outcomes of an existing resource conservation policy. In doing so, we conceptually mapped linkages among economic sectors to their cumulative effects of converting land. We assume an inverse relationship between economic expansion and land conservation.A New York State energy efficiency incentive program was tested using recent data from all tracked economic sectors. The economic data were converted in a series of steps from dollar values to energy units, to carbon dioxide emissions, and ultimately expressed in hectares of net land conversion. A policy scenario was compared to a reference scenario (no resource conservation policy), and the results anticipate a net gain in conserving land (0.6% reduced conversion). We interpret this as a potentially proportional offset favoring wildlife habitat retention. Two sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the policy’s impact on conserving land depended on both the affected economy’s scale (tripling reduces the estimated benefit to 0.2%), and the level of economic expansion that followed (doubling leads to a net loss of wildlands).This novel use of the EF approach may serve as a model for a more general approach to assessing a broader class of policies. It may also hold promise toward developing tools that can better examine well-intentioned resource conservation policies with uncertain outcomes. Our hope is that work like this can lead to better sets of tools for examining critical ecological–economic linkages for improved policy design.     

Structural Path Analysis of Fossil Fuel Based CO2 Emissions: A Case Study for China

Environmentally extended input-output analysis (EEIOA) has long been used to quantify global and regional environmental impacts and to clarify emission transfers. Structural path analysis (SPA), a technique based on EEIOA, is especially useful for measuring significant flows in this environmental-economic system. This paper constructs an imports-adjusted single-region input-output (SRIO) model considering only domestic final use elements, and it uses the SPA technique to highlight crucial routes along the production chain in both final use and sectoral perspectives. The results indicate that future mitigation policies on household consumption should change direct energy use structures in rural areas, cut unreasonable demand for power and chemical products, and focus on urban areas due to their consistently higher magnitudes than rural areas in the structural routes. Impacts originating from government spending should be tackled by managing onsite energy use in 3 major service sectors and promoting cleaner fuels and energy-saving techniques in the transport sector. Policies on investment should concentrate on sectoral interrelationships along the production chain by setting up standards to regulate upstream industries, especially for the services, construction and equipment manufacturing sectors, which have high demand pulling effects. Apart from the similar methods above, mitigating policies in exports should also consider improving embodied technology and quality in manufactured products to achieve sustainable development. Additionally, detailed sectoral results in the coal extraction industry highlight the onsite energy use management in large domestic companies, emphasize energy structure rearrangement, and indicate resources and energy safety issues. Conclusions based on the construction and public administration sectors reveal that future mitigation in secondary and tertiary industries should be combined with upstream emission intensive industries in a systematic viewpoint to achieve sustainable development. Overall, SPA is a useful tool in empirical studies, and it can be used to analyze national environmental impacts and guide future mitigation policies.     

Resource Use and Waste Generation by the Tourism Industry on the Big Island of Hawaii

A survey of the tourism industry on the island of Hawaii (the Big Island) in the state of Hawaii in the United States was conducted to collect baseline information on major resources (energy, food, and water consumption) and waste generation from five tourism sectors: accommodations, food and beverages (restaurants), golf courses, tourism services (tours), and rental cars. The questionnaire was developed and 50 establishments from the target sectors participated in this survey. Resource consumption and waste generation were calculated by the number of establishments, employees, and visitors. Using these factors and island‐wide statistics (the number of establishments, job counts, and visitors), this study estimated the current status of island‐wide water, food, and energy consumption and waste generation by these five sectors of the tourism industry. The estimate shows that the tourism sectors surveyed for this study account for 21.7% of the island's total energy consumption, 44.7% of the island‐wide water consumption, and 10.7% of the island‐wide waste generation. Using a per guest emission factor (such as per employee, guest room, and seat) provided in this study, the owners and managers of tourism establishments can calculate a baseline for each resource input and output. This is essential information to improve the industry's efficiency and result in economic savings.     

The forest resources input–output model: An application in China

Understanding the state of forest resource utilization in China and correctly evaluating the role and function of forest resources in national economic development are essential for realizing balanced development of forests, the environment, and the economy. This is especially true given the present situation of increasingly scarce forest resources. Using data from Chinese forest industry statistical yearbooks, forestry development reports, and other documents, this paper examines the current state of forest resource utilization in China from the angle of combining quantities and values based on input–output tables. We show that demand for and input use of forest resources varies greatly across industrial sectors; the paper products and furniture manufacturing industries have the greatest direct consumption coefficient for timber use. When considering direct and indirect demand, it is clear that forest resources restrict different industrial sectors in diverse ways. These results provide an important set of reference values regarding the utilization of forest resources and coordinated industrial development in China.