Trends of Tuberculosis Case Notification and Treatment Outcomes in the Sidama Zone,Southern Ethiopia: Ten-Year Retrospective Trend Analysis in Urban-Rural Settings

BackgroundEthiopia is one of the high tuberculosis (TB) burden countries. An analysis of trends and differentials in case notifications and treatment outcomes of TB may help improve our understanding of the performance of TB control services.MethodsA retrospective trend analysis of TB cases was conducted in the Sidama Zone in southern Ethiopia. We registered all TB cases diagnosed and treated during 2003–2012 from all health facilities in the Sidama Zone, and analysed trends of TB case notification rates and treatment outcomes.ResultsThe smear positive (PTB+) case notification rate (CNR) increased from 55 (95% CI 52.5–58.4) to 111 (95% CI 107.4–114.4) per 10⁵ people. The CNRs of PTB+ in people older than 45 years increased by fourfold, while the mortality of cases during treatment declined from 11% to 3% for smear negative (PTB-) (X²_trend, P<0.001) and from 5% to 2% for PTB+ (X²_trend, P<0.001). The treatment success was higher in rural areas (AOR 1.11; CI 95%: 1.03–1.2), less for PTB- (AOR 0.86; CI 95%: 0.80–0.92) and higher for extra-pulmonary TB (AOR 1.10; CI 95%: 1.02–1.19) compared to PTB+. A higher lost-to-follow up was observed in men (AOR 1.15; CI 95%: 1.06–1.24) and among PTB- cases (AOR 1.14; CI 95%: 1.03–1.25). More deaths occurred in PTB-cases (AOR 1.65; 95% CI: 1.44–1.90) and among cases older than 65 years (AOR 3.86; CI 95%: 2.94–5.10). Lastly, retreatment cases had a higher mortality than new cases (6% vs 3%).ConclusionOver the past decade TB CNRs and treatment outcomes improved, whereas the disparities of disease burden by gender and place of residence reduced and mortality declined. Strategies should be devised to address higher risk groups for poor treatment outcomes.     

Rapid testing requires clinical evaluation for accurate diagnosis of dengue disease: A passive surveillance study in Southern Malaysia

BackgroundDengue fever is the most common mosquito-borne infection worldwide where an expanding surveillance and characterization of this infection are needed to better inform the healthcare system. In this surveillance-based study, we explored the prevalence and distinguishing features of dengue fever amongst febrile patients in a large community-based health facility in southern peninsular Malaysia.MethodsOver six months in 2018, we recruited 368 adults who met the WHO 2009 criteria for probable dengue infection. They underwent the following blood tests: full blood count, dengue virus (DENV) rapid diagnostic test (RDT), ELISA (dengue IgM and IgG), nested RT-PCR for dengue, multiplex qRT-PCR for Zika, Chikungunya and dengue as well as PCR tests for Leptopspira spp., Japanese encephalitis and West Nile virus.ResultsLaboratory-confirmed dengue infections (defined by positive tests in NS1, IgM, high-titre IgG or nested RT-PCR) were found in 167 (45.4%) patients. Of these 167 dengue patients, only 104 (62.3%) were positive on rapid diagnostic testing. Dengue infection was significantly associated with the following features: family or neighbours with dengue in the past week (AOR: 3.59, 95% CI:2.14–6.00, p<0.001), cutaneous rash (AOR: 3.58, 95% CI:1.77–7.23, p<0.001), increased temperature (AOR: 1.33, 95% CI:1.04–1.70, p = 0.021), leucopenia (white cell count < 4,000/μL) (AOR: 3.44, 95% CI:1.72–6.89, p<0.001) and thrombocytopenia (platelet count <150,000/μL)(AOR: 4.63, 95% CI:2.33–9.21, p<0.001). Dengue infection was negatively associated with runny nose (AOR: 0.47, 95% CI:0.29–0.78, p = 0.003) and arthralgia (AOR: 0.42, 95% CI:0.24–0.75, p = 0.004). Serotyping by nested RT-PCR revealed mostly mono-infections with DENV-2 (n = 64), DENV-1 (n = 32) and DENV-3 (n = 17); 14 co-infections occurred with DENV-1/DENV-2 (n = 13) and DENV-1/DENV-4 (n = 1). Besides dengue, none of the pathogens above were found in patients’ serum.ConclusionsAcute undifferentiated febrile infections are a diagnostic challenge for community-based clinicians. Rapid diagnostic tests are increasingly used to diagnose dengue infection but negative tests should be interpreted with caution as they fail to detect a considerable proportion of dengue infection. Certain clinical features and haematological parameters are important in the clinical diagnosis of dengue infection.     

The Impact of Opportunistic Infections on Clinical Outcome and Healthcare Resource Uses for Adult T Cell Leukaemia

We examined the impact of opportunistic infections on in-hospital mortality, hospital length of stay (LOS), and the total cost (TC) among adult T-cell leukaemia (ATL) patients. In this retrospective cohort study, we identified 3712 patients with ATL using national hospital administrative data. Analysed opportunistic infections included Aspergillus spp., Candida spp., cytomegalovirus (CMV), herpes simplex virus (HSV), pneumocystis pneumonia (PCP), tuberculosis, varicella zoster virus (VZV), Cryptococcus spp., nontuberculous mycobacteria, and Strongyloides spp. Multilevel logistic regression analysis for in-hospital mortality and a multilevel linear regression analysis for LOS and TC were employed to determine the impact of opportunistic infections on clinical outcomes and healthcare resources. We found ATL patients infected with CMV had significantly higher in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 2.29 [1.50–3.49] p < 0.001), longer LOS (coefficient (B): 0.13 [0.06–0.20] p < 0.001) and higher TC (B: 0.25 [0.17–0.32] p < 0.001) than those without CMV. Those with CAN and PCP were associated with a lower in-hospital mortality rate (AOR 0.72 [0.53–0.98] p = 0.035 and 0.54[0.41–0.73] p < 0.001, respectively) than their infections. VZV was associated with longer LOS (B: 0.13 [0.06–0.19] p < 0.001), while aspergillosis, HSV, or VZV infections were associated with higher TC (B: 0.16 [0.07–0.24] p < 0.001, 0.12 [0.02–0.23] p = 0.025, and 0.17 [0.10–0.24] p < 0.001, respectively). Our findings reveal that CMV infection is a major determinant of poor prognosis in patients affected by ATL.     

Trends in HIV incidence between 2013–2019 and association of baseline factors with subsequent incident HIV among gay,bisexual, and other men who have sex with men attending sexual health clinics in England: A prospective cohort study

BackgroundProspective cohort studies of incident HIV and associated factors among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) in the United Kingdom are lacking. We report time trends in and factors associated with HIV incidence between 2013 and 2019 among a cohort of GBMSM: the AURAH2 prospective study.Methods and findingsParticipants were recruited through 1 of 3 sexual health clinics in London and Brighton (July 2013 to April 2016) and self-completed a baseline paper questionnaire and subsequent 4-monthly and annual online questionnaires (March 2015 to March 2018), including information on sociodemographics, lifestyle, health and well-being, HIV status, sexual/HIV-related behaviours, and preexposure prophylaxis and postexposure prophylaxis (PrEP/PEP). Incident HIV was ascertained by linkage with national HIV surveillance data from Public Health England (PHE). We investigated the associations of HIV incidence with (1) baseline factors using mixed-effects Weibull proportional hazard models, unadjusted and adjusted for age, country of birth and ethnicity, sexuality, and education level; and (2) time-updated factors, using mixed-effects Poisson regression models.In total, 1,162 men (mean age 34 years, 82% white, 94% gay, 74% university-educated) were enrolled in the study. Thirty-three HIV seroconversions occurred over 4,618.9 person-years (PY) of follow-up: an overall HIV incidence rate (IR) of 0.71 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.51 to 1.00) per 100 PY. Incidence declined from 1.47 (95% CI 0.48 to 4.57) per 100 PY in 2013/2014 to 0.25 (95% CI 0.08 to 0.78) per 100 PY in 2018/2019; average annual decline was 0.85-fold (p < 0.001). Baseline factors associated with HIV acquisition included the following: injection drug use (6/38 men who reported injection drug-acquired HIV; unadjusted conditional hazard ratio (HR) 27.96, 95% CI 6.99 to 111.85, p < 0.001), noninjection chemsex-related drug use (13/321; HR 6.45, 95% CI 1.84 to 22.64, p < 0.001), condomless anal sex (CLS) (26/741; HR 3.75, 95% CI 1.31 to 10·74, p = 0.014); higher number of CLS partners (HRs >10 partners [7/57]; 5 to 10 partners [5/60]; and 2 to 4 partners [11/293]: 14.04, 95% CI 4.11 to 47.98; 9.60, 95% CI 2.58 to 35.76; and 4.05, 95% CI 1.29 to 12.72, respectively, p < 0.001); CLS with HIV–positive partners (14/147; HR 6.45, 95% CI 3.15 to 13.22, p < 0.001), versatile CLS role (21/362; HR 6.35, 95% CI 2.18 to 18.51, p < 0.001), group sex (64/500; HR 8.81, 95% CI 3.07 to 25.24, p < 0.001), sex for drugs/money (4/55, HR 3.27, 95% CI 1.14 to 9.38, p = 0.027) (all in previous 3 months); previous 12-month report of a bacterial sexually transmitted infection (STI) diagnoses (21/440; HR 3.95, 95% CI 1.81 to 8.63, p < 0.001), and more than 10 new sexual partners (21/471, HRs 11 to 49, 50 to 99, and >100 new partners: 3.17, 95% CI 1.39 to 7.26; 4.40, 95% CI 1.35 to 14.29; and 4.84, 95% CI 1.05 to 22.4, respectively, p < 0.001). Results were broadly consistent for time-updated analysis (n = 622 men). The study’s main limitation is that men may not be representative of the broader GBMSM population in England.ConclusionsWe observed a substantial decline in HIV incidence from 2013 to 2019 among GBMSM attending sexual health clinics. Injection drug use, chemsex use, and measures of high-risk sexual behaviour were strongly associated with incident HIV. Progress towards zero new infections could be achieved if combination HIV prevention including Test and Treat strategies and routine commissioning of a PrEP programme continues across the UK and reaches all at-risk populations.

Nadia Hanum and colleagues analyze trends in HIV incidence among gay, bisexual, and other Men Who Have Sex with Men attending sexual health clinics in England.     

Sweetened beverages and risk of frailty among older women in the Nurses’ Health Study: A cohort study

BackgroundConsumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been consistently associated with a higher risk of obesity, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and premature mortality, whereas evidence for artificially sweetened beverages (ASBs) and fruit juices on health is less solid. The aim of this study was to evaluate the consumption of SSBs, ASBs, and fruit juices in association with frailty risk among older women.Methods and findingsWe analyzed data from 71,935 women aged ≥60 (average baseline age was 63) participating in the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS), an ongoing cohort study initiated in 1976 among female registered nurses in the United States. Consumption of beverages was derived from 6 repeated food frequency questionnaires (FFQs) administered between 1990 and 2010. Frailty was defined as having at least 3 of the following 5 criteria from the FRAIL scale: fatigue, poor strength, reduced aerobic capacity, having ≥5 chronic illnesses, and weight loss ≥5%. The occurrence of frailty was assessed every 4 years from 1992 to 2014. During 22 years of follow-up, we identified 11,559 incident cases of frailty. Consumption of SSBs was associated with higher risk of frailty after adjustment for diet quality, body mass index (BMI), smoking status, and medication use, specifically, the relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) for ≥2 serving/day versus no SSB consumption was 1.32 (1.10, 1.57); p-value <0.001. ASBs were also associated with frailty [RR ≥2 serving/day versus no consumption: 1.28 (1.17, 1.39); p-value <0.001]. Orange juice was associated with lower risk of frailty [RR ≥1 serving/day versus no consumption: 0.82 (0.76, 0.87); p-value <0.001], whereas other juices were associated with a slightly higher risk [RR ≥1 serving/day versus no consumption: 1.15 (1.03, 1.28); p-value <0.001]. A limitation of this study is that, due to self-reporting of diet and frailty, certain misclassification bias cannot be ruled out; also, some residual confounding may persist.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed that consumption of SSBs and ASBs was associated with a higher risk of frailty. However, orange juice intake showed an inverse association with frailty. These results need to be confirmed in further studies using other frailty definitions.

Ellen Struijk and colleagues investigate the association between sweetened beverage consumption and risk of frailty later in life.     

Risk of miscarriage in women with chronic diseases in Norway: A registry linkage study

BackgroundIncreased risk of miscarriage has been reported for women with specific chronic health conditions. A broader investigation of chronic diseases and miscarriage risk may uncover patterns across categories of illness. The objective of this study was to study the risk of miscarriage according to various preexisting chronic diseases.Methods and findingsWe conducted a registry-based study. Registered pregnancies (n = 593,009) in Norway between 2010 and 2016 were identified through 3 national health registries (birth register, general practitioner data, and patient registries). Six broad categories of illness were identified, comprising 25 chronic diseases defined by diagnostic codes used in general practitioner and patient registries. We required that the diseases were diagnosed before the pregnancy of interest. Miscarriage risk according to underlying chronic diseases was estimated as odds ratios (ORs) using generalized estimating equations adjusting for woman’s age. The mean age of women at the start of pregnancy was 29.7 years (SD 5.6 years). We observed an increased risk of miscarriage among women with cardiometabolic diseases (OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.20 to 1.31; p-value <0.001). Within this category, risks were elevated for all conditions: atherosclerosis (2.22; 1.42 to 3.49; p-value <0.001), hypertensive disorders (1.19; 1.13 to 1.26; p-value <0.001), and type 2 diabetes (1.38; 1.26 to 1.51; p-value <0.001). Among other categories of disease, risks were elevated for hypoparathyroidism (2.58; 1.35 to 4.92; p-value 0.004), Cushing syndrome (1.97; 1.06 to 3.65; p-value 0.03), Crohn’s disease (OR 1.31; 95% CI: 1.18 to 1.45; p-value 0.001), and endometriosis (1.22; 1.15 to 1.29; p-value <0.001). Findings were largely unchanged after mutual adjustment. Limitations of this study include our inability to adjust for measures of socioeconomic position or lifestyle characteristics, in addition to the rareness of some of the conditions providing limited power.ConclusionsIn this registry study, we found that, although risk of miscarriage was largely unaffected by maternal chronic diseases, risk of miscarriage was associated with conditions related to cardiometabolic health. This finding is consistent with emerging evidence linking cardiovascular risk factors to pregnancy complications.

In this registry data study, Maria Magnus and colleagues study associations between miscarriage risk and chronic conditions.     

Induction of labour at 41 weeks or expectant management until 42 weeks: A systematic review and an individual participant data meta-analysis of randomised trials

BackgroundThe risk of perinatal death and severe neonatal morbidity increases gradually after 41 weeks of pregnancy. Several randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have assessed if induction of labour (IOL) in uncomplicated pregnancies at 41 weeks will improve perinatal outcomes. We performed an individual participant data meta-analysis (IPD-MA) on this subject.Methods and findingsWe searched PubMed, Excerpta Medica dataBASE (Embase), The Cochrane Library, Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), and PsycINFO on February 21, 2020 for RCTs comparing IOL at 41 weeks with expectant management until 42 weeks in women with uncomplicated pregnancies. Individual participant data (IPD) were sought from eligible RCTs. Primary outcome was a composite of severe adverse perinatal outcomes: mortality and severe neonatal morbidity. Additional outcomes included neonatal admission, mode of delivery, perineal lacerations, and postpartum haemorrhage. Prespecified subgroup analyses were conducted for parity (nulliparous/multiparous), maternal age (<35/≥35 years), and body mass index (BMI) (<30/≥30). Aggregate data meta-analysis (MA) was performed to include data from RCTs for which IPD was not available.From 89 full-text articles, we identified three eligible RCTs (n = 5,161), and two contributed with IPD (n = 4,561). Baseline characteristics were similar between the groups regarding age, parity, BMI, and higher level of education. IOL resulted overall in a decrease of severe adverse perinatal outcome (0.4% [10/2,281] versus 1.0% [23/2,280]; relative risk [RR] 0.43 [95% confidence interval [CI] 0.21 to 0.91], p-value 0.027, risk difference [RD] −57/10,000 [95% CI −106/10,000 to −8/10,000], I² 0%). The number needed to treat (NNT) was 175 (95% CI 94 to 1,267).Perinatal deaths occurred in one (<0.1%) versus eight (0.4%) pregnancies (Peto odds ratio [OR] 0.21 [95% CI 0.06 to 0.78], p-value 0.019, RD −31/10,000, [95% CI −56/10,000 to −5/10,000], I² 0%, NNT 326, [95% CI 177 to 2,014]) and admission to a neonatal care unit ≥4 days occurred in 1.1% (24/2,280) versus 1.9% (46/2,273), (RR 0.52 [95% CI 0.32 to 0.85], p-value 0.009, RD −97/10,000 [95% CI −169/10,000 to −26/10,000], I² 0%, NNT 103 [95% CI 59 to 385]). There was no difference in the rate of cesarean delivery (10.5% versus 10.7%; RR 0.98, [95% CI 0.83 to 1.16], p-value 0.81) nor in other important perinatal, delivery, and maternal outcomes. MA on aggregate data showed similar results.Prespecified subgroup analyses for the primary outcome showed a significant difference in the treatment effect (p = 0.01 for interaction) for parity, but not for maternal age or BMI. The risk of severe adverse perinatal outcome was decreased for nulliparous women in the IOL group (0.3% [4/1,219] versus 1.6% [20/1,264]; RR 0.20 [95% CI 0.07 to 0.60], p-value 0.004, RD −127/10,000, [95% CI −204/10,000 to −50/10,000], I² 0%, NNT 79 [95% CI 49 to 201]) but not for multiparous women (0.6% [6/1,219] versus 0.3% [3/1,264]; RR 1.59 [95% CI 0.15 to 17.30], p-value 0.35, RD 27/10,000, [95% CI −29/10,000 to 84/10,000], I² 55%).A limitation of this IPD-MA was the risk of overestimation of the effect on perinatal mortality due to early stopping of the largest included trial for safety reasons after the advice of the Data and Safety Monitoring Board. Furthermore, only two RCTs were eligible for the IPD-MA; thus, the possibility to assess severe adverse neonatal outcomes with few events was limited.ConclusionsIn this study, we found that, overall, IOL at 41 weeks improved perinatal outcome compared with expectant management until 42 weeks without increasing the cesarean delivery rate. This benefit is shown only in nulliparous women, whereas for multiparous women, the incidence of mortality and morbidity was too low to demonstrate any effect. The magnitude of risk reduction of perinatal mortality remains uncertain. Women with pregnancies approaching 41 weeks should be informed on the risk differences according to parity so that they are able to make an informed choice for IOL at 41 weeks or expectant management until 42 weeks.Study Registration: PROSPERO CRD42020163174

Mårten Alkmark and co-workers report on a meta-analysis of randomized trials of labour induction at 41 weeks'' gestation as compared with expectant management until 42 weeks.     

Reproductive health among married and unmarried mothers aged less than 18, 18–19, and 20–24 years in the United States, 2014–2019: A population-based cross-sectional study

BackgroundStudies in low- and middle-income regions suggest that child marriage (<18 years) is a risk factor for poor reproductive outcomes among women. However, in high-income-country contexts where childbearing before age 18 occurs predominantly outside marriage, it is unknown whether marriage is adversely associated with reproductive health among mothers below age 18. This study examined the joint associations of marriage and adolescent maternal age group (<18, 18–19, and 20–24 years) with reproductive, maternal, and infant health indicators in the United States.Methods and findingsBirth registrations with US resident mothers aged ≤24 years with complete information on marital status were drawn from the 2014 to 2019 Natality Public Use Files (n = 5,669,824). Odds ratios for the interaction between marital status and maternal age group were estimated using multivariable logistic regression, adjusting for covariates such as maternal race/ethnicity and nativity status, federal program participation, and paternal age. Marriage prevalence was 3.6%, 13.2%, and 34.1% among births to mothers aged <18, 18–19, and 20–24 years, respectively. Age gradients in the adjusted odds ratios (AORs) were present for most indicators, and many gradients differed by marital status. Among births to mothers aged <18 years, marriage was associated with greater adjusted odds of prior pregnancy termination (AOR 1.64, 95% CI 1.52–1.77, p < 0.001), repeat birth (AOR 2.84, 95% CI 2.68–3.00, p < 0.001), maternal smoking (AOR 1.24, 95% CI 1.15–1.35, p < 0.001), and infant morbidity (AOR 1.07, 95% CI 1.01–1.14, p = 0.03), but weaker or reverse associations existed among births to older mothers. For all maternal age groups, marriage was associated with lower adjusted odds of late or no prenatal care initiation, sexually transmitted infection, and no breastfeeding at hospital discharge, but these beneficial associations were weaker among births to mothers aged <18 and 18–19 years. Limitations of the study include its cross-sectional nature and lack of information on marriage timing relative to prior pregnancy events.ConclusionsMarriage among mothers below age 18 is associated with both adverse and favorable reproductive, maternal, and infant health indicators. Heterogeneity exists in the relationship between marriage and reproductive health across adolescent maternal age groups, suggesting girl child marriages must be examined separately from marriages at older ages.

In a population-based study, Andrée-Anne Fafard St-Germain and colleagues examine the joint associations of marriage and adolescent maternal age group (<18, 18-19, and 20-24 years) with reproductive, maternal, and infant health indicators in the United States.     

Major Burden of Severe Anemia from Non-Falciparum Malaria Species in Southern Papua: A Hospital-Based Surveillance Study

Background

The burden of anemia attributable to non-falciparum malarias in regions with Plasmodium co-endemicity is poorly documented. We compared the hematological profile of patients with and without malaria in southern Papua, Indonesia.

Methods and Findings

Clinical and laboratory data were linked for all patients presenting to a referral hospital between April 2004 and December 2012. Data were available on patient demographics, malaria diagnosis, hemoglobin concentration, and clinical outcome, but other potential causes of anemia could not be identified reliably. Of 922,120 patient episodes (837,989 as outpatients and 84,131 as inpatients), a total of 219,845 (23.8%) were associated with a hemoglobin measurement, of whom 67,696 (30.8%) had malaria. Patients with P. malariae infection had the lowest hemoglobin concentration (n = 1,608, mean = 8.93 [95% CI 8.81–9.06]), followed by those with mixed species infections (n = 8,645, mean = 9.22 [95% CI 9.16–9.28]), P. falciparum (n = 37,554, mean = 9.47 [95% CI 9.44–9.50]), and P. vivax (n = 19,858, mean = 9.53 [95% CI 9.49–9.57]); p-value for all comparisons <0.001. Severe anemia (hemoglobin <5 g/dl) was present in 8,151 (3.7%) patients. Compared to patients without malaria, those with mixed Plasmodium infection were at greatest risk of severe anemia (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 3.25 [95% CI 2.99–3.54]); AORs for severe anaemia associated with P. falciparum, P. vivax, and P. malariae were 2.11 (95% CI 2.00–2.23), 1.87 (95% CI 1.74–2.01), and 2.18 (95% CI 1.76–2.67), respectively, p<0.001. Overall, 12.2% (95% CI 11.2%–13.3%) of severe anemia was attributable to non-falciparum infections compared with 15.1% (95% CI 13.9%–16.3%) for P. falciparum monoinfections. Patients with severe anemia had an increased risk of death (AOR = 5.80 [95% CI 5.17–6.50]; p<0.001). Not all patients had a hemoglobin measurement, thus limitations of the study include the potential for selection bias, and possible residual confounding in multivariable analyses.

Conclusions

In Papua P. vivax is the dominant cause of severe anemia in early infancy, mixed P. vivax/P. falciparum infections are associated with a greater hematological impairment than either species alone, and in adulthood P. malariae, although rare, is associated with the lowest hemoglobin concentration. These findings highlight the public health importance of integrated genus-wide malaria control strategies in areas of Plasmodium co-endemicity. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

The burden of traumatic brain injury from low-energy falls among patients from 18 countries in the CENTER-TBI Registry: A comparative cohort study

BackgroundTraumatic brain injury (TBI) is an important global public health burden, where those injured by high-energy transfer (e.g., road traffic collisions) are assumed to have more severe injury and are prioritised by emergency medical service trauma triage tools. However recent studies suggest an increasing TBI disease burden in older people injured through low-energy falls. We aimed to assess the prevalence of low-energy falls among patients presenting to hospital with TBI, and to compare their characteristics, care pathways, and outcomes to TBI caused by high-energy trauma.Methods and findingsWe conducted a comparative cohort study utilising the CENTER-TBI (Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in TBI) Registry, which recorded patient demographics, injury, care pathway, and acute care outcome data in 56 acute trauma receiving hospitals across 18 countries (17 countries in Europe and Israel). Patients presenting with TBI and indications for computed tomography (CT) brain scan between 2014 to 2018 were purposively sampled. The main study outcomes were (i) the prevalence of low-energy falls causing TBI within the overall cohort and (ii) comparisons of TBI patients injured by low-energy falls to TBI patients injured by high-energy transfer—in terms of demographic and injury characteristics, care pathways, and hospital mortality. In total, 22,782 eligible patients were enrolled, and study outcomes were analysed for 21,681 TBI patients with known injury mechanism; 40% (95% CI 39% to 41%) (8,622/21,681) of patients with TBI were injured by low-energy falls. Compared to 13,059 patients injured by high-energy transfer (HE cohort), the those injured through low-energy falls (LE cohort) were older (LE cohort, median 74 [IQR 56 to 84] years, versus HE cohort, median 42 [IQR 25 to 60] years; p < 0.001), more often female (LE cohort, 50% [95% CI 48% to 51%], versus HE cohort, 32% [95% CI 31% to 34%]; p < 0.001), more frequently taking pre-injury anticoagulants or/and platelet aggregation inhibitors (LE cohort, 44% [95% CI 42% to 45%], versus HE cohort, 13% [95% CI 11% to 14%]; p < 0.001), and less often presenting with moderately or severely impaired conscious level (LE cohort, 7.8% [95% CI 5.6% to 9.8%], versus HE cohort, 10% [95% CI 8.7% to 12%]; p < 0.001), but had similar in-hospital mortality (LE cohort, 6.3% [95% CI 4.2% to 8.3%], versus HE cohort, 7.0% [95% CI 5.3% to 8.6%]; p = 0.83). The CT brain scan traumatic abnormality rate was 3% lower in the LE cohort (LE cohort, 29% [95% CI 27% to 31%], versus HE cohort, 32% [95% CI 31% to 34%]; p < 0.001); individuals in the LE cohort were 50% less likely to receive critical care (LE cohort, 12% [95% CI 9.5% to 13%], versus HE cohort, 24% [95% CI 23% to 26%]; p < 0.001) or emergency interventions (LE cohort, 7.5% [95% CI 5.4% to 9.5%], versus HE cohort, 13% [95% CI 12% to 15%]; p < 0.001) than patients injured by high-energy transfer. The purposive sampling strategy and censorship of patient outcomes beyond hospital discharge are the main study limitations.ConclusionsWe observed that patients sustaining TBI from low-energy falls are an important component of the TBI disease burden and a distinct demographic cohort; further, our findings suggest that energy transfer may not predict intracranial injury or acute care mortality in patients with TBI presenting to hospital. This suggests that factors beyond energy transfer level may be more relevant to prehospital and emergency department TBI triage in older people. A specific focus to improve prevention and care for patients sustaining TBI from low-energy falls is required.

In a cohort study, Fiona Lecky and colleagues investigate the factors associated with traumatic brain injury resulting from low energy falls compared with injuries from high energy transfer mechanisms among patients across Europe and Israel.     

Mortality and major disease risk among migrants of the 1991–2001 Balkan wars to Sweden: A register-based cohort study

BackgroundIn recent decades, millions of refugees and migrants have fled wars and sought asylum in Europe. The aim of this study was to quantify the risk of mortality and major diseases among migrants during the 1991–2001 Balkan wars to Sweden in comparison to other European migrants to Sweden during the same period.Methods and findingsWe conducted a register-based cohort study of 104,770 migrants to Sweden from the former Yugoslavia during the Balkan wars and 147,430 migrants to Sweden from 24 other European countries during the same period (1991–2001). Inpatient and specialized outpatient diagnoses of cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, and psychiatric disorders were obtained from the Swedish National Patient Register and the Swedish Cancer Register, and mortality data from the Swedish Cause of Death Register. Adjusting for individual-level data on sociodemographic characteristics and emigration country smoking prevalence, we used Cox regressions to contrast risks of health outcomes for migrants of the Balkan wars and other European migrants. During an average of 12.26 years of follow-up, being a migrant of the Balkan wars was associated with an elevated risk of being diagnosed with CVD (HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.34–1.43, p < 0.001) and dying from CVD (HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.29–1.62, p < 0.001), as well as being diagnosed with cancer (HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.08–1.24, p < 0.001) and dying from cancer (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.15–1.41, p < 0.001), compared to other European migrants. Being a migrant of the Balkan wars was also associated with a greater overall risk of being diagnosed with a psychiatric disorder (HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.14–1.23, p < 0.001), particularly post-traumatic stress disorder (HR 9.33, 95% CI 7.96–10.94, p < 0.001), while being associated with a reduced risk of suicide (HR 0.68, 95% CI 0.48–0.96, p = 0.030) and suicide attempt (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.51–0.65, p < 0.001). Later time period of migration and not having any first-degree relatives in Sweden at the time of immigration were associated with greater increases in risk of CVD and psychiatric disorders. Limitations of the study included lack of individual-level information on health status and behaviors of migrants at the time of immigration.ConclusionsOur findings indicate that migrants of the Balkan wars faced considerably elevated risks of major diseases and mortality in their first decade in Sweden compared to other European migrants. War migrants without family members in Sweden or with more recent immigration may be particularly vulnerable to adverse health outcomes. Results underscore that persons displaced by war are a vulnerable group in need of long-term health surveillance for psychiatric disorders and somatic disease.

Edda Bjork Thordardottir and co-workers study health outcomes among migrants from the former Yugoslavia to Sweden.     

In-Hospital Disease Burden of Sarcoidosis in Switzerland from 2002 to 2012

Sarcoidosis is a multisystem disease with an unpredictable and sometimes fatal course while the underlying pathomechanism is still unclear. Reasons of the increasing hospitalization rate and mortality in the United States remain in dispute but incriminated are a number of distinct comorbidities and risk factors as well as the application of more aggressive therapeutic agents. Studies reflecting the recent development in central Europe are lacking. Our aim was to investigate the recent mortality and hospitalization rates as well as the underlying comorbidities of hospitalized sarcoidosis patients in Switzerland. In this longitudinal, nested case-control study, a nation-wide database provided by the Swiss Federal Office for Statistics enclosing every hospital entry covering the years 2002–2012 (n = 15,627,573) was analyzed. There were 8,385 cases with a diagnosis of sarcoidosis representing 0.054% (8,385 / 15,627,573) of all hospitalizations in Switzerland. These cases were compared with age- and sex-matched controls without the diagnosis of sarcoidosis. Hospitalization and mortality rates in Switzerland remained stable over the observed time period. Comorbidity analysis revealed that sarcoidosis patients had significantly higher medication-related comorbidities compared to matched controls, probably due to systemic corticosteroids and immunosuppressive therapy. Sarcoidosis patients were also more frequently re-hospitalized (median annual hospitalization rate 0.28 [IQR 0.15-0.65] vs. 0.19 [IQR 0.13-0.36] per year; p < 0.001), had a longer hospital stay (6 [IQR 2-13] vs. 4 [IQR 1-8] days; p < 0.001), had more comorbidities (4 [IQR 2-7] vs. 2 [IQR 1-5]; p < 0.001), and had a significantly higher in-hospital mortality (2.6% [95% CI 2.3%-2.9%] vs. 1.8% [95% CI 1.5%-2.1%] (p < 0.001). A worse outcome was observed among sarcoidosis patients having co-occurrence of associated respiratory diseases. Moreover, age was an important risk factor for re-hospitalization.     

Association between Body Mass Index and Prognosis of Colorectal Cancer: A Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies

Studies have reported conflicting results on the association between body mass index (BMI) and prognosis of colorectal cancer. Therefore, we have conducted a meta-analysis of prospective studies, which examined the association of pre- and post-diagnostic BMI with colorectal cancer-specific mortality and all-cause mortality in patients with colorectal cancer. We searched Medline and EMBASE database published between 1970 and September 2014. A total of 508 articles were identified, of which 16 prospective cohort studies were included for the current meta-analysis. The analysis included 58,917 patients who were followed up over a period ranging from 4.9 to 20 years (median: 9.9 years). We found that being underweight before cancer diagnosis was associated with increased all-cause mortality (Relative risk [RR]: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.18–2.23, p < 0.01) and being obese (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m²) before cancer diagnosis was associated with increased colorectal cancer-specific mortality (RR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.003–1.35, p < 0.01) and all-cause mortality (RR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.14–1.36, p < 0.01). On the other hand, being underweight (RR: 1.33, 95% CI: 1.20–1.47, p < 0.01), obese (RR: 1.08, 95% CI: 1.03–1.3, p < 0.01), and class II/III obese (BMI ≥ 35 kg/m²; RR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.04–1.23, p < 0.01) after diagnosis were associated with significantly increased all-cause mortality. Being obese prior to diagnosis of colorectal cancer was associated with increased colorectal cancer-specific mortality and all-cause mortality, whereas being obese after diagnosis was associated with increased all-cause mortality. The associations with being underweight may reflect reverse causation. Maintaining a healthy body weight should be discussed with colorectal cancer survivors.     

Host Factors and Biomarkers Associated with Poor Outcomes in Adults with Invasive Pneumococcal Disease

BackgroundInvasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) causes considerable morbidity and mortality. We aimed to identify host factors and biomarkers associated with poor outcomes in adult patients with IPD in Japan, which has a rapidly-aging population.MethodsIn a large-scale surveillance study of 506 Japanese adults with IPD, we investigated the role of host factors, disease severity, biomarkers based on clinical laboratory data, treatment regimens, and bacterial factors on 28-day mortality.ResultsOverall mortality was 24.1%, and the mortality rate increased from 10.0% in patients aged ˂50 years to 33.1% in patients aged ≥80 years. Disease severity also increased 28-day mortality, from 12.5% among patients with bacteraemia without sepsis to 35.0% in patients with severe sepsis and 56.9% with septic shock. The death rate within 48 hours after admission was high at 54.9%. Risk factors for mortality identified by multivariate analysis were as follows: white blood cell (WBC) count <4000 cells/μL (odds ratio [OR], 6.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.7–12.8, p < .001); age ≥80 years (OR, 6.5; 95% CI, 2.0–21.6, p = .002); serum creatinine ≥2.0 mg/dL (OR, 4.5; 95% CI, 2.5–8.1, p < .001); underlying liver disease (OR, 3.5; 95% CI, 1.6–7.8, p = .002); mechanical ventilation (OR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.7–5.6, p < .001); and lactate dehydrogenase ≥300 IU/L (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.4–4.0, p = .001). Pneumococcal serotype and drug resistance were not associated with poor outcomes.ConclusionsHost factors, disease severity, and biomarkers, especially WBC counts and serum creatinine, were more important determinants of mortality than bacterial factors.     

Clinical and Prognostic Significance of Preoperative Plasma Fibrinogen Levels in Patients with Operable Breast Cancer

Purpose

Elevated plasma fibrinogen levels are associated with tumor progression and poor outcomes in different cancer patients. The objective of this study was to investigate the clinical and prognostic value of preoperative plasma fibrinogen levels in patients with operable breast cancer.

Methods

Two hundred and twenty-three patients diagnosed with breast cancer were retrospectively evaluated in this study. Plasma fibrinogen levels were examined before treatment and analyzed along with patient clinicopathological parameters, disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival(OS). Both univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the clinicopathological parameters associated with DFS and OS.

Results

Elevated preoperative plasma fibrinogen levels were directly associated with age of diagnose (≤47 vs. >47, p<0.001), menopause (yes vs. no, p<0.001), tumor size (T1&T2 vs.T3&T4, p = 0.033), tumor stage (Ⅰvs.Ⅱvs.Ⅲ, p = 0.034) and lymph node involvement (N = 0 vs. 1≤N≤3 vs. N≥4, p<0.001), but not with histological grade, molecular type and other Immunohistochemical parameters(ER, PR, HER2 and Ki-67). In a univariate survival analysis, tumor stage, tumor size, lymph node involvement (p<0.001/ p<0.001)and plasma fibrinogen (p<0.001/ p<0.001) levels were associated with disease-free and overall survival, but just lymph nodes involvement (p<0.001, hazard ratio [HR] = 2.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.6–5.3/ p = 0.006, HR = 3.2, 95% CI = 1.4–7.3) and plasma fibrinogen levels (p = 0.006, HR = 3.4, 95% CI = 1.4–8.3/ p = 0.002, HR = 10.1, 95% CI = 2.3–44.6) were associated with disease-free and overall survival in a multivariate survival analysis, respectively.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates that elevated preoperative plasma fibrinogen levels are associated with breast cancer progression and are independently associated with a poor prognosis in patients with operable breast cancer.     

Intestinal schistosomiasis among schoolchildren in Sana’a Governorate,Yemen: Prevalence,associated factors and its effect on nutritional status and anemia

Intestinal schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease, causing morbidity and mortality in tropical and subtropical countries. Despite the frequent implementation of mass drug administration with praziquantel, the reinfection with Schistosoma mansoni is still common in Yemen. In addition, there is a scarcity of information on the impact of S. mansoni on nutritional status and anemia among schoolchildren. The present study aimed to determine prevalence and risk factors of intestinal schistosomiasis and investigate its impact on nutritional status and anemia among schoolchildren in Sana’a Governorate, Yemen. It was conducted in 2018 on 445 schoolchildren aged 5–15 years. Biodata, socio-economic, demographic, behavioral and environmental data were collected using a standard questionnaire. S. mansoni was identified and quantified by microscopic examination of Kato-Katz fecal smear. Hemoglobin concentration and anthropometric measurements were estimated using standard methods. The prevalence of S. mansoni was higher in Al-Haimah Al-Dakheliah (33.9%) than Bani Mater (1.4%). Household without tap water (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 2.9, 95% Confidence interval (CI): 1.12, 7.55, P = 0.028) was the independent risk factor of the infection. The prevalence of wasting and stunting was 25.0% (95%CI: 21.2%, 29.2%) and 45.8% (95%CI: 41.2%, 50.5%), respectively. The prevalence of underweight among schoolchildren aged 5–10 years was 27.3% (95%CI: 21.9%, 33.4%). The prevalence of anemia was 31.7% (95%CI: 27.5%, 36.2%) with 0.5%, 21.1% and 10.1% being severe, moderate and mild anemia, respectively. S. mansoni (AOR = 4.1, 95%CI: 2.16, 7.84, P < 0.001) and early adolescence (AOR = 6.8, 95%CI: 4.26, 10.82, P < 0.001) were independent predictors of stunting among schoolchildren. The early adolescent schoolchildren (AOR = 3.1, 95%CI: 1.86, 4.97, P < 0.001) and children from families with low (AOR = 2.1, 95%CI: 1.01, 4.15, P = 0.046) or moderate wealth (AOR = 2.3, 95%CI: 1.11, 4.77, P = 0.026) were significantly more wasted.Early adolescence (AOR = 1.8, 95%CI:1.14, 2.78, P = 0.011), female (AOR = 1.6, 95%CI: 1.03, 2.43, P = 0.038) and Al-Haimah Al-Dakheliah District (AOR = 3.4, 95%CI: 1.20, 9.55, P = 0.021) were independent risk factors for anemia. The study findings indicate highly focal prevalence of schistosomiasis in Sana’a Governorate with a public health significance that varies from low to high risk. Approximately half of schoolchildren were stunted, which was associated with S. mansoni infection and early adolescence. One quarter of schoolchildren were wasted with early adolescent schoolchildren and children from poor families being at high risk of wasting. Anemia was a moderate public health threat affecting the female and the early adolescent schoolchildren. The study suggests the implementation of control measures to combat schistosomiasis and integrated diseases control programmes to improve the health status of schoolchildren in Sana’a Governorate.     

Levels of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine coverage and indirect protection against invasive pneumococcal disease and pneumonia hospitalisations in Australia: An observational study

BackgroundThere is limited empiric evidence on the coverage of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) required to generate substantial indirect protection. We investigate the association between population PCV coverage and indirect protection against invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and pneumonia hospitalisations among undervaccinated Australian children.Methods and findingsBirth and vaccination records, IPD notifications, and hospitalisations were individually linked for children aged <5 years, born between 2001 and 2012 in 2 Australian states (New South Wales and Western Australia; 1.37 million children). Using Poisson regression models, we examined the association between PCV coverage, in small geographical units, and the incidence of (1) 7-valent PCV (PCV7)-type IPD; (2) all-cause pneumonia; and (3) pneumococcal and lobar pneumonia hospitalisation in undervaccinated children. Undervaccinated children received <2 doses of PCV at <12 months of age and no doses at ≥12 months of age. Potential confounding variables were selected for adjustment a priori with the assistance of a directed acyclic graph.There were strong inverse associations between PCV coverage and the incidence of PCV7-type IPD (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR] 0.967, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.958 to 0.975, p-value < 0.001), and pneumonia hospitalisations (all-cause pneumonia: aIRR 0.991 95% CI 0.990 to 0.994, p-value < 0.001) among undervaccinated children. Subgroup analyses for children <4 months old, urban, rural, and Indigenous populations showed similar trends, although effects were smaller for rural and Indigenous populations. Approximately 50% coverage of PCV7 among children <5 years of age was estimated to prevent up to 72.5% (95% CI 51.6 to 84.4) of PCV7-type IPD among undervaccinated children, while 90% coverage was estimated to prevent 95.2% (95% CI 89.4 to 97.8). The main limitations of this study include the potential for differential loss to follow-up, geographical misclassification of children (based on residential address at birth only), and unmeasured confounders.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed substantial indirect protection at lower levels of PCV coverage than previously described—challenging assumptions that high levels of PCV coverage (i.e., greater than 90%) are required. Understanding the association between PCV coverage and indirect protection is a priority since the control of vaccine-type pneumococcal disease is a prerequisite for reducing the number of PCV doses (from 3 to 2). Reduced dose schedules have the potential to substantially reduce program costs while maintaining vaccine impact.

In an observational study, Jocelyn Chan and colleagues investigate associations between pneumococcal conjugate vaccine coverage and incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease and pneumonia among children under 5 years in Australia.     

Epidemiology of soil-transmitted helminth infections in Semarang,Central Java,Indonesia

Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections are endemic in Indonesia. However, prevalence data for many parts of the country are incomplete. The aim of this study was to determine human STH prevalence and knowledge and practices relating to STH risk behaviour, to provide a current view of the status of STH infection in rural communities in Central Java. A cross-sectional survey of 16 villages was conducted in Semarang, Central Java in 2015. Demographic and household data together with information about knowledge and practices relating to STH and hygiene were elicited through face-to-face interviews. Stool samples were collected and examined using the flotation method. Children (aged 2–12 years) also had their haemoglobin (Hb) levels, height and weight data collected, and BMI estimated. Data were analysed using univariate logistic regression analysis. A total of 6,466 individuals with a mean age of 33.5 years (range: 2–93) from 2,195 households were interviewed. The overall prevalence of STH was 33.8% with Ascaris lumbricoides (roundworm) the predominant nematode identified (prevalence = 26.0%). Hookworm and Trichuris trichiura (whipworm) were found in 7.9% and 1.8% of participants, respectively. Females were at increased odds of infection with A. lumbricoides (adjusted OR 1.14, 95% CI [1.02–1.29], p = 0.02). Adults in age groups 51–60 and over 60 years had the highest odds of being infected with hookworm (adjusted OR 3.01, 95% CI [1.84–4.91], p<0.001 and adjusted OR 3.79, 95% CI [2.30–6.26], p<0.001, respectively) compared to 6–12 year olds. Farmers also had higher odds of being infected with hookworm (adjusted OR 2.36, 95% CI [1.17–4.76], p = 0.02) compared to other occupation categories. Poverty (OR 2.14, 95% CI [1.77–2.58], p<0.001), overcrowding (OR 1.35, 95% CI [1.27–1.44], p<0.001), goat ownership (OR 1.61, 95% CI [1.10–2.41], p = 0.02) and the presence of dry floor space in the home (OR 0.73, 95% CI [0.58–0.91], p = 0.01) were all household factors significantly associated with an increased odds of infection. Infection with STH was not significantly associated with the gastrointestinal illness (p>0.05), BMI or Hb levels; however, one third of all 2–12 year olds surveyed were found to be anaemic (i.e. Hb concentrations below 110g/l or 115g/l for children under 5 and 5 years or older, respectively), with a greater proportion of school-age children at risk. Knowledge and behaviour related to hygiene and gastrointestinal diseases varied widely and were generally not associated with STH infection. The study revealed that STH infection remains endemic in Central Java despite ongoing deworming programs. Current control efforts would benefit from being re-evaluated to determine a more effective way forward.     

The Association of Platelet Count with Clinicopathological Significance and Prognosis in Renal Cell Carcinoma: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

ObjectiveElevated platelet count (PC), a measure of systemic inflammatory response, is inconsistently reported to be associated with poor prognosis in patients with renal cell carcinoma (RCC). We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to clarify the significance of PC in RCC prognosis.MethodsPubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases were searched to identify eligible studies to evaluate the associations of PC with patient survival and clinicopathological features of RCC.ResultsWe analyzed 25 studies including 11,458 patients in the meta-analysis and categorized the included articles into three groups based on RCC stage. An elevated PC level was associated with poor overall survival (OS, hazard ratio [HR] 2.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.87-2.67, P<0.001) and cancer-specific survival (CSS, HR 2.59, 95% CI 1.92-3.48, P<0.001) when all stages were examined together; with poor CSS (HR 5.09, 95% CI 2.41-10.73, P<0.001) and recurrence-free survival (HR 6.68, 95% CI 3.35-13.34, P<0.001) for localized RCC; with poor OS (HR 2.00, 95% CI 1.75-2.28, P<0.001) for metastatic RCC; and with poor OS (HR 2.05, 95% CI 1.04-4.03, P = 0.038), CSS (HR 3.38, 95% CI 1.86-6.15, P<0.001), and PFS (HR 2.97, 95% CI 1.47-6.00, P = 0.002) for clear cell RCC. Furthermore, an elevated PC level was significantly associated with TNM stage (OR 3.11, 95% CI 1.59-6.06, P = 0.001), pathological T stage (OR 3.13, 95% CI 2.60-3.77, P<0.001), lymph node metastasis (OR 4.01, 95% CI 2.99-5.37, P<0.001), distant metastasis (OR 3.85, 95% CI 2.46-6.04, P<0.001), Fuhrman grade (OR 3.70, 95% CI 3.00-4.56, P<0.001), tumor size (OR 4.69, 95% CI 2.78-7.91, P<0.001) and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group score (OR 5.50, 95% CI 3.26-9.28, P<0.001).ConclusionAn elevated PC level implied poor prognosis in patients with RCC and could serve as a readily available biomarker for managing this disease.     

Upgrading a Piped Water Supply from Intermittent to Continuous Delivery and Association with Waterborne Illness: A Matched Cohort Study in Urban India

Background

Intermittent delivery of piped water can lead to waterborne illness through contamination in the pipelines or during household storage, use of unsafe water sources during intermittencies, and limited water availability for hygiene. We assessed the association between continuous versus intermittent water supply and waterborne diseases, child mortality, and weight for age in Hubli-Dharwad, India.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a matched cohort study with multivariate matching to identify intermittent and continuous supply areas with comparable characteristics in Hubli-Dharwad. We followed 3,922 households in 16 neighborhoods with children <5 y old, with four longitudinal visits over 15 mo (Nov 2010–Feb 2012) to record caregiver-reported health outcomes (diarrhea, highly credible gastrointestinal illness, bloody diarrhea, typhoid fever, cholera, hepatitis, and deaths of children <2 y old) and, at the final visit, to measure weight for age for children <5 y old. We also collected caregiver-reported data on negative control outcomes (cough/cold and scrapes/bruises) to assess potential bias from residual confounding or differential measurement error.Continuous supply had no significant overall association with diarrhea (prevalence ratio [PR] = 0.93, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.83–1.04, p = 0.19), bloody diarrhea (PR = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.60–1.01, p = 0.06), or weight-for-age z-scores (Δz = 0.01, 95% CI: −0.07–0.09, p = 0.79) in children <5 y old. In prespecified subgroup analyses by socioeconomic status, children <5 y old in lower-income continuous supply households had 37% lower prevalence of bloody diarrhea (PR = 0.63, 95% CI: 0.46–0.87, p-value for interaction = 0.03) than lower-income intermittent supply households; in higher-income households, there was no significant association between continuous versus intermittent supply and child diarrheal illnesses. Continuous supply areas also had 42% fewer households with ≥1 reported case of typhoid fever (cumulative incidence ratio [CIR] = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.41–0.78, p = 0.001) than intermittent supply areas. There was no significant association with hepatitis, cholera, or mortality of children <2 y old; however, our results were indicative of lower mortality of children <2 y old (CIR = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.22–1.07, p = 0.10) in continuous supply areas. The major limitations of our study were the potential for unmeasured confounding given the observational design and measurement bias from differential reporting of health symptoms given the nonblinded treatment. However, there was no significant difference in the prevalence of the negative control outcomes between study groups that would suggest undetected confounding or measurement bias.

Conclusions

Continuous water supply had no significant overall association with diarrheal disease or ponderal growth in children <5 y old in Hubli-Dharwad; this might be due to point-of-use water contamination from continuing household storage and exposure to diarrheagenic pathogens through nonwaterborne routes. Continuous supply was associated with lower prevalence of dysentery in children in low-income households and lower typhoid fever incidence, suggesting that intermittently operated piped water systems are a significant transmission mechanism for Salmonella typhi and dysentery-causing pathogens in this urban population, despite centralized water treatment. Continuous supply was associated with reduced transmission, especially in the poorer higher-risk segments of the population.