The Empirical Analysis of Cigarette Tax Avoidance and Illicit Trade in Vietnam, 1998-2010

Illicit trade carries the potential to magnify existing tobacco-related health care costs through increased availability of untaxed and inexpensive cigarettes. What is known with respect to the magnitude of illicit trade for Vietnam is produced primarily by the industry, and methodologies are typically opaque. Independent assessment of the illicit cigarette trade in Vietnam is vital to tobacco control policy. This paper measures the magnitude of illicit cigarette trade for Vietnam between 1998 and 2010 using two methods, discrepancies between legitimate domestic cigarette sales and domestic tobacco consumption estimated from surveys, and trade discrepancies as recorded by Vietnam and trade partners. The results indicate that Vietnam likely experienced net smuggling in during the period studied. With the inclusion of adjustments for survey respondent under-reporting, inward illicit trade likely occurred in three of the four years for which surveys were available. Discrepancies in trade records indicate that the value of smuggled cigarettes into Vietnam ranges from $100 million to $300 million between 2000 and 2010 and that these cigarettes primarily originate in Singapore, Hong Kong, Macao, Malaysia, and Australia. Notable differences in trends over time exist between the two methods, but by comparison, the industry estimates consistently place the magnitude of illicit trade at the upper bounds of what this study shows. The unavailability of annual, survey-based estimates of consumption may obscure the true, annual trend over time. Second, as surveys changed over time, estimates relying on them may be inconsistent with one another. Finally, these two methods measure different components of illicit trade, specifically consumption of illicit cigarettes regardless of origin and smuggling of cigarettes into a particular market. However, absent a gold standard, comparisons of different approaches to illicit trade measurement serve efforts to refine and improve measurement approaches and estimates.     

Aplasia cutis congenita.

A newborn child was noted to have an ulcerated lesion on the vertex of her scalp, which was diagnosed as aplasia cutis congenita. As this disorder is relatively rare and frequently misdiagnosed, this case is reported and the relevant literature reviewed.     

3. Control of sex expression in conifers

Despite considerable progress in recent years in the promotion of flowering in conifers, relatively little is known about the endogenous control of sex expression or its practical manipulation to aid pollen and crop management in seed orchards. Well defined patterns of sexual zonation exist within the tree crown and shoot, and these appear to be associated with hormonal and possibly nutritional gradients. No firm conclusions, however, are possible regarding the specific role(s) of different PGRs in sex expression, this being as much as a problem of lack of critical study as the complexity of the process itself. Whether a PGR such as gibberellins or auxins, or a cultural treatment that itself may influence endogenous hormone levels, primarily promotes female or male flowering often depends on the position within the crown of the shoot being treated, and its timing in relation to stage of primordia development. Photoperiod also may be involved- short days favoring females and long days males, at least in some species- although its role in controlling sex expression is by no means clear. Practical manipulation of sex expression may be possible through selective crown pruning, different PGR combinations, treatment timing and/or photoperiod control, but the development of such techniques for operational use will require a better basic understanding of the endogenous regulatory mechanisms involved.     

A bivariate radioimmunoassay for arginine vasopressin and the synthetic antidiuretic agent 1-deamino-8-D-arginine vasopressin (desmopressin)

Pairs of radioimmunoassays, each of which include a two-dimensional matrix of standards, have been previously employed to resolve specificity problems in steroid immunoassay. In this study the bivariate radioimmunoassay principle has been applied to simultaneous measurement of plasma antidiuretic hormone, arginine vasopressin, and the synthetic antidiuretic agent 1-deamino-8-D-arginine vasopressin (desmopressin), by utilizing two arginine vasopressin antisera which show significantly different cross-reactivities with the synthetic analog. Data processing consists of mathematical representation of two curved dose-response surfaces followed by solution of this pair of nonlinear simultaneous equations for the unknown arginine vasopressin and desmopressin concentrations. Details of numerical procedures are given in the Appendix. The assay appears entirely adequate in terms of sensitivity, accuracy, and precision for measurement of these antidiuretic agents in clinical samples. No evidence of significant covariance in estimated concentrations could be detected but precision of estimation is (not unexpectedly) a function of the concentration of both agents. The plasma disappearance half-time of desmopressin (probably the second of a biphasic disappearance) was estimated as 37 min in one normal subject, which is in good agreement with a previously reported value of 30 min.     

Seasonal variation in the chemical composition of the bioenergy feedstock Laminaria digitata for thermochemical conversion

To avoid negative impacts on food production, novel non-food biofuel feedstocks need to be identified and utilised. One option is to utilise marine biomass, notably fast-growing, large marine ‘plants’ such as the macroalgal kelps. This paper reports on the changing composition of Laminaria digitata throughout it growth cycle as determined by new technologies. The potential of Laminaria sp. as a feedstock for biofuel production and future biorefining possibilities was assessed through proximate and ultimate analysis, initial pyrolysis rates using thermo-gravimetric analysis (TGA), metals content and pyrolysis gas chromatography-mass spectrometry.Samples harvested in March contained the lowest proportion of carbohydrate and the highest ash and alkali metal content, whereas samples harvested in July contained the highest proportions of carbohydrate, lowest alkali metals and ash content. July was therefore considered the most suitable month for harvesting kelp biomass for thermochemical conversion to biofuels.     

Psychiatric Molecular Genetics and the Ethics of Social Promises

A recent literature review of commentaries and ‘state of the art’ articles from researchers in psychiatric genetics (PMG) offers a consensus about progress in the science of genetics, disappointments in the discovery of new and effective treatments, and a general optimism about the future of the field. I argue that optimism for the field of psychiatric molecular genetics (PMG) is overwrought, and consider progress in the field in reference to a sample estimate of US National Institute of Mental Health funding for this paradigm for the years 2008 and 2009. I conclude that the amounts of financial investment in PMG is questionable from an ethical perspective, given other research and clinical needs in the USA.