动物的易绝灭特征与保护优先性

各种人为干扰和自然因素促使大量物种走向濒危和绝灭。物种濒危和绝灭不是随机的。具有某些特征的物种容易濒危和绝灭 ,即易绝灭特征。易绝灭特征包括个体大 ,繁殖力低 ,扩散能力弱 ,营养级高 ,家域大 ,种群小 ,种群波动大 ,分布范围窄 ,种群密度低 ,栖息地特化程度高和特殊栖息地类型等。研究物种的易绝灭特征可以为生物多样性提供预防性 (proac tive)的优先保护措施。尽管物种的易绝灭特征已经用于实际的物种保护中 ,然而由于物种的各种特征对物种濒危和绝灭的影响十分复杂 ,各个易绝灭特征还有待于进一步深入的、准确的研究。探讨适合不同类群和不同地区物种的易绝灭特征是十分必要的。由于特殊地史发育、中医药传统和边境频繁的非法野生动物贸易 ,我国动物的濒危模式可能与国外有所不同。     

物种灭绝对不同时间尺度栖息地毁坏响应的空间模拟

人类活动所引起的栖息地毁坏已成为当前物种多样性丧失的最主要的原因之一。空间显含模型相对于空间隐含模型来说,更加接近于现实,因此,通过元胞自动机,模拟了物种多样性对万年、千年、百年时间尺度人类活动所引起的栖息地毁坏的响应。研究结果表明：万年时间尺度上,物种是由强到弱的灭绝;而在千年时间尺度上,物种灭绝的序受集合种群结构的影响较大;在百年时间尺度上。物种由于栖息地毁坏过于剧烈和迅速,来不及作出响应。在栖息地完全毁坏时集体灭绝。因此,物种灭绝序不只是受竞争-侵占均衡机制的影响,还受不同时间尺度（不同速率）栖息地毁坏的影响。以及集合种群结构的影响。     

Metapopulation extinction in fragmented landscapes: using bacteria and protozoa communities as model ecosystems

Extinction is notoriously difficult to study because of the long timescales involved and the difficulty in ascertaining that extinction has actually occurred. The effect of habitat subdivision, or fragmentation, on extinction risk is even harder to study, as it requires copious replication of habitat patches on large spatial scales and control of area effects between treatments. I used simple small-scale communities of bacteria and protozoa to study extinction in response to habitat loss and habitat fragmentation. I studied several different community configurations, each with three trophic levels. Unlike most metapopulation studies (experimental as well as theoretical), which have tended to deal with inherently unstable species interactions, I deliberately used community configurations that were persistent in large stock cultures. I recorded the time to extinction of the top predator in single habitat patches of different sizes and in fragmented systems with different degrees of subdivision but the same amount of available habitat. Habitat loss reduced the time to extinction of isolated populations. Fragmented systems went extinct sooner than corresponding unfragmented (continuous) systems of the same overall size. Unfragmented populations persisted longer than fragmented systems (metapopulations) with or without dispersal corridors between subpopulations. In fact, fragmented systems where the fragments were linked by dispersal corridors went extinctly significantly sooner than those where subpopulations were completely isolated from each other. If these results extend to more "natural" systems, it suggests a need for caution in management programs that emphasize widespread establishment of wildlife corridors in fragmented landscapes.     

Habitat destruction in mutualistic metacommunities

We investigate a mutualistic metacommunity where the strength of the mutualistic interaction between species is measured by the extent to which the presence of one species on a patch either reduces the extinction rate of the others present on the same patch or increases their ability to colonize other patches. In both cases, a strong enough mutualism enables all species to persist at habitat densities where they would all be extinct in the absence of the interaction. However, a mutualistic interaction that enhances colonization enables the species to persist at lower habitat density than one that suppresses extinction. All species abruptly go extinct (catastrophe) when the habitat density is decreased infinitesimally below a critical value. A comparison of the mean field or spatially implicit case with unrestricted dispersal and colonization to all patches in the system with a spatially explicit case where dispersal is restricted to the immediate neighbours of the original patch leads to the intriguing conclusion that restricted dispersal can be favourable for species that have a beneficial effect on each other when habitat conditions are adverse. When the mutualistic interaction is strong enough, the extinction threshold or critical amount of habitat required for the persistence of all species is lower when the dispersal is locally restricted than when unrestricted ! The persistence advantage for all species created by the mutualistic interaction increases substantially with the number of species in the metacommunity, as does the advantage for restricted dispersal over global dispersal.     

Ecological correlates of local extinction and colonisation in the British ladybird beetles (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae)

Five main drivers of population declines have been identified: climate change, habitat degradation, invasive alien species (IAS), overexploitation and pollution. Each of these drivers interacts with the others, and also with the intrinsic traits of individual species, to determine species’ distribution and range dynamics. We explored the relative importance of life-history and resource-use traits, climate, habitat, and the IAS Harmonia axyridis in driving local extinction and colonisation dynamics across 25 ladybird species (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae).Species were classified as continually present, continually absent, extinct, or colonising in each of 4,642 1-km² grid squares. The spatial distribution of local extinction and colonisation events (in the grid squares) across all species’ ranges were related to ecological traits, overlap with H. axyridis, climate, and habitat factors within generalised linear models (GLMs). GLMs were also used to relate species’ traits, range characteristics, and niche overlap with H. axyridis to extinction and colonisation rates summarised at the species level. Bayesian model averaging was used to account for model uncertainty, and produce reduced sets of models which were well-supported by data. Species with a high degree of niche overlap with H. axyridis suffered higher extinction rates in both analyses, while at the spatial scale extinctions were more likely and colonisations less likely in areas with a high proportion of urban land cover. In the spatial analysis, polymorphic species with large range sizes were more likely to colonise and less likely to go extinct, and sunny grid squares were more likely to be colonised. Large, multivoltine species and rainy grid squares were less likely to colonise or be colonised. In conclusion for ladybirds, extinction and colonisation dynamics are influenced by several factors. The only factor that both increased the local extinction likelihood and reduced colonisation likelihood was urban land cover, while ecological overlap with H. axyridis greatly increased extinction rates. Continued spread of H. axyridis is likely to adversely affect native species and urban areas may be particularly vulnerable.     

Which plant traits predict species loss in calcareous grasslands with extinction debt?

Aim Habitat loss and degradation pose a major threat to biodiversity, which can result in the extinction of habitat characteristic species. However, many species exhibit a delayed response to environmental changes because of the slow intrinsic dynamics of populations, resulting in extinction debt. We assess directly the changes in habitat characteristic species composition by comparing historical (1923) and current inventories in highly fragmented grasslands. We aim to characterize the species that constitute extinction debt in European calcareous grasslands. Location Europe, Estonia, 59–60° N, 24–25° E. Methods We related eleven life‐history traits and selected habitat preferences to local extinctions of populations in grasslands where extinction debt has been largely paid. Traits were chosen to describe species dispersal and persistence abilities and were quantified from databases. Results The studied grasslands have lost 90% of their area and 30% of their characteristic plant populations in 90 years. Species more prone to local population extinction were characterized by shorter life span, self‐pollination, a lack of clonal growth, fewer seeds per shoot, lower average height, lower soil nitrogen preference and higher requirements for light, indicating a limited ability to tolerate the range of changes in biotic and abiotic conditions of the sites. Locally extinct populations were also characterized by wind‐dispersed seeds, lower seed weight and lower terminal velocity of seeds, suggesting that species strategies for long‐distance dispersal are not favoured in highly fragmented landscapes. Thus, both increased habitat isolation and decreased habitat quality are important in determining local population extinction. Main conclusions Populations more prone to local extinction were characterized by a number of life‐history traits, demonstrating a greater extinction risk for species with poorer abilities for local persistence and competition. Our results can be applied to less degraded grasslands where the extinction debt is not yet paid to determine those species most susceptible to future extinction.     

Determinants of local abundance and range size in forest vascular plants

Aim For a large set of forest herbs we tested: (1) whether there is a positive relationship between local abundance and geographical range size; (2) whether abundance or range size are affected by the niche breadths of species or niche availability; and (3) whether these are affected by the species life‐history traits. Location Northwestern Germany. Methods We measured abundance as mean density in 22 base‐rich deciduous forests and recorded range size as area of occupancy on four different spatial scales (local to national). Niche breadth was expressed in terms of habitat specificity (specialists, generalists) and of the ability to grow across a broad range of soil pH. The species’ pH niche position was used as a measure of the importance of habitat availability. As life‐history traits we used diaspore mass and number, plant height, seed longevity, lifespan/clonality, pollination mode, dispersal capability and flowering time. Results There were mainly no positive relationships between the abundance of species and their range size, as tested across species and across phylogenetically independent contrasts. Forest specialists were generally distributed less widely than generalists, but habitat specificity was not related to local abundance. Species with a broader pH niche breadth were more common, but the positive relationships between niche breadth and abundance or range size disappeared when accounting for sample size effects. Clonal species with few and heavy diaspores were most abundant, as well as early‐flowering species and those lacking dispersal structures. Local and regional range size were determined largely by habitat availability, while national range was positively affected by plant height and diaspore mass. Main conclusions Different processes determine the local density of species and their range size. Abundance within habitat patches appears to be related mainly to the species life histories, especially to their capacity for extensive clonal reproduction, whereas range size appears to be determined strongly by the availability of suitable habitat.     

Ecological Predictors of Extinction Risk in the Flora of Lowland England, UK

We used historical and contemporary records to determine the scale of plant extinction in Bedfordshire and Northamptonshire, and to assess whether extinct species share a range of ecological and phytogeographical traits. Since 1700 both counties have lost 94 species (11% of their native floras) with the rate of extinction increasing from 3.8 to 4.8 species per decade in the 19th century to 6–8 species per decade after 1950. The most important predictors of extinction risk were English range size and traits associated with habitat specialisation and competitive ability: poor competitors (i.e. short stress-tolerators) associated with open habitats with very low or high pH and soil moisture (e.g. lowland bogs, dwarf-shrub heath and acid and calcareous grassland) were much more likely to have become extinct in the study region than would have been expected by chance alone. Many of these species have very localised distributions and/or occur at the northern, southern or eastern edges of their range in southern England (i.e. Northern and Oceanic). In contrast, there was no clear or significant relationship between extinction and dispersal ability or reproductive mode. These findings, which parallel national trends, indicate that habitat loss and eutrophication have been the main causes of population extinction in lowland England over the last 300 years. However, more fine-scaled studies are required to assess whether ‘low-level’ stresses, such as habitat fragmentation, climate change and atmospheric pollution, are having additional impacts on populations already severely depleted by habitat loss, as well as to quantify changes in the abundance of more widespread species which are known to have declined over the same period.     

Reductions in connectivity and habitat quality drive local extinctions in a plant diversity hotspot

It is well documented that habitat loss is a major cause of biodiversity decline. However, the roles of the different aspects of habitat loss in local extinctions are less understood. Anthropogenic destruction of an area of habitat causes immediate local extinction but subsequently three additional gradual drivers influence the likelihood of delayed extinction: decreased habitat patch size, lower connectivity and habitat deterioration. We investigated the role of these drivers in local extinctions of 82 declining species in a UK biodiversity hotspot. We combined a unique set of ≈ 7000 vegetation surveys and habitat maps from the 1930s with contemporary species’ occurrences. We extrapolated from these surveys to the whole 2500‐km² study area using habitat suitability surfaces. The strengths of drivers in explaining local extinctions over this 70 yr period were determined by contrasting connectivity, patch size and habitat quality loss for locations at which a species went extinct and those with persisting occurrences. Species’ occurrences declined on average by 60%, with half of local extinctions attributable to immediate habitat loss and half to the gradual processes causing delayed extinctions. On average, locations where a species persisted had a 73% higher contemporary connectivity than those suffering extinctions, but showed no differences in historical connectivity. Furthermore, locations with extinctions experienced a 37% greater decline in suitability associated with changes in habitat type. The strength of the drivers and the proportion of extinctions depended on the species’ habitat specialism, but were affected only minimally by life‐history characteristics. In conclusion, we identified a hierarchy of drivers influencing local extinction: with connectivity loss being the strongest, suitability change being moderately important, but changes in habitat patch size having only weak effects. We suggest conservation efforts could be most effective by strengthening connectivity along with reducing habitat deterioration, which would benefit a wide range of species.     

Spatial dynamics of plant species in an agricultural landscape in the Netherlands

This study examined the changes in distribution patterns of 13 herbaceous plant species from 1998 to 2000 in ditch banks along the edges of arable fields in the Netherlands. The objective was to test if spatial dynamics could be related to spatial isolation and disturbance of habitat and to the dispersal and seed bank characteristics of the species. Knowledge of these relations should be used to increase the effectivity of agri-environmental schemes aiming at an increase of botanical diversity. All species frequently colonized empty patches and populations in occupied patches frequently went extinct. Most colonization events occurred within 50 m of conspecific source patches in the preceding year, but colonization events in patches at distances more than 200 m from conspecific source patches were also observed. The colonization probabilities decreased with isolation distance. For nine species this relation was statistically significant, after correction for year and habitat. The extinction probabilities increased with isolation. For only four species this relation was statistically significant. Both colonization and extinction probabilities were more often statistically significant related to isolation for species with transient seed banks than species with persistent seed banks. Implications for management options aiming at survival of plant species in fragmented landscapes are discussed.     

Synergistic effects of an extreme weather event and habitat fragmentation on a specialised insect herbivore

Habitat fragmentation is considered to be one of the main causes of population decline and species extinction worldwide. Furthermore, habitat fragmentation can decrease the ability of populations to resist and to recover from environmental disturbances such as extreme weather events, which are expected to occur at an increasing rate as a result of climate change. In this study, we investigated how calcareous grassland fragmentation affected the impact of the climatically extreme summer of 2003 on egg deposition rates, population size variation and survival of the blue butterfly Cupido minimus, a specialist herbivore of Anthyllis vulneraria. Immediately after the 2003 summer heat wave, populations of the host plant declined in size; this was paralleled with decreases in population size of the herbivore and altered egg deposition rates. In 2006 at the end of the monitoring period, however, most A. vulneraria populations had recovered and only one population went extinct. In contrast, several butterfly populations had gone extinct between 2003 and 2006. Extinction probability was significantly related to initial population size, with small populations having a higher risk of extinction than large populations. These results support the prediction that species of higher trophic levels are more susceptible to extinction due to habitat fragmentation and severe disturbances.     

Habitat patch size alters the importance of dispersal for species diversity in an experimental freshwater community

Increased dispersal of individuals among discrete habitat patches should increase the average number of species present in each local habitat patch. However, experimental studies have found variable effects of dispersal on local species richness. Priority effects, predators, and habitat heterogeneity have been proposed as mechanisms that limit the effect of dispersal on species richness. However, the size of a habitat patch could affect how dispersal regulates the number of species able to persist. We investigated whether habitat size interacted with dispersal rate to affect the number of species present in local habitats. We hypothesized that increased dispersal rates would positively affect local species richness more in small habitats than in large habitats, because rare species would be protected from demographic extinction. To test the interaction between dispersal rate and habitat size, we factorially manipulated the size of experimental ponds and dispersal rates, using a model community of freshwater zooplankton. We found that high‐dispersal rates enhanced local species richness in small experimental ponds, but had no effect in large experimental ponds. Our results suggest that there is a trade‐off between patch connectivity (a mediator of dispersal rates) and patch size, providing context for understanding the variability observed in dispersal effects among natural communities, as well as for developing conservation and management plans in an increasingly fragmented world.     

Species characteristics associated with extinction vulnerability and nestedness rankings of birds in tropical forest fragments

Following habitat fragmentation, species are predicted to go locally extinct from remnant patches in a predictable order due to differential extinction vulnerabilities. This selective species loss will result in nested distributions of species such that species found in depauperate patches will also tend to be found in larger, more speciose patches. Therefore, it should be possible to determine the relationship between species-specific characteristics and extinction vulnerability by comparing the order in which species are nested [i.e. nestedness ranking (NR)] with various natural history characteristics available from the literature and/or collected in the field. In this study, we investigate the relationship between the NRs of 41 resident forest-interior bird species inhabiting recently isolated landbridge islands in Lago Guri, Venezuela, with a large number of natural history characteristics collected from the literature (regional abundance, body length, habitat specificity, trophic guild, sensitivity to disturbance, range size) and from the field (local population density). In a comparison of the best regression models generated using just variables available through the literature (i.e. no local population density) with the best model generated using all possible variables, we found that the inclusion of field-based data significantly improved the amount of variation explained. The best overall model ( r ²=0.40, P <0.001) included body size, habitat specificity, zoogeographic distribution (a measure of range size) and local population density as predictors of NR. Understanding the factors that influence extinction vulnerability has important implications for conservation and could be used to help direct management efforts.     

How do low dispersal species establish large range sizes? The case of the water beetle Graphoderus bilineatus

Species’ dispersal abilities have been considered a major driving force in establishment and maintenance of large range sizes. However, recent studies question the general validity of this relationship because the relationship between dispersal ability and range size might in some cases be less important than species phylogeny or local spatial attributes. In this study we used the water beetle Graphoderus bilineatus a philopatric species of conservation concern in Europe as a model to explain large range size and to support effective conservation measures for such species that also have limited dispersal. We recorded the presence/absence of G. bilineatus and measured 14 habitat and 20 landscape variables at 228 localities in Estonia, Poland and Sweden within the core range of the species. Using information theory and average multivariate logistic regression models we determined that presence of G. bilineatus depended on landscape connectivity, distance to a possible source habitat, and stability of the site; however, specificity of habitat characteristics was not vital for the species. We reason that the large range of G. bilineatus is best explained by the historical combination of lakes, river systems and wetlands which used to be highly connected throughout the central plains of Europe. Our data suggest that a broad habitat niche can prevent landscape elements from becoming barriers for species like G. bilineatus. Therefore, we question the usefulness of site protection as conservation measures for G. bilineatus and similar philopatric species. Instead, conservation actions should be focused at the landscape level to ensure a long‐term viability of such species across their range.     

Megafauna extinction,tree species range reduction,and carbon storage in Amazonian forests

During the Late Pleistocene and early Holocene 59 species of South American megafauna went extinct. Their extinction potentially triggered population declines of large‐seeded tree species dispersed by the large‐bodied frugivores with which they co‐evolved, a theory first proposed by Janzen and Martin (1982). We tested this hypothesis using species range maps for 257 South American tree species, comparing 63 species thought to be primarily distributed by megafauna with 194 distributed by other animals. We found a highly significant (p < 0.001) decreased mean range size of 26% for the megafauna dispersed fruit (n = 63 species) versus fruit dispersed by other animals (n = 194), results which support the hypothesis. We then developed a mathematical model of seed dispersal to estimate the theoretical impact of megafauna extinction on tree species range and found the estimated dispersal capacity (Φ_seed) of a 2 g seed decreases by > 95% following disperser extinction. A numerical gap dynamic simulations suggests that over a 10 000 yr period following the disperser extinctions, the average convex hull range size of large‐seeded tree species decreased by ～ 31%, while the estimated decrease in population size was ～ 54%, indicating a likely greater decrease in species population size than indicated by the empirical range patterns. Finally, we found a positive correlation between seed size and wood density of animal‐dispersed tree species implying that the Late Pleistocene and early Holocene megafaunal extinctions reduced carbon content in the Amazon by ～ 1.5 ± 0.7%. In conclusion, we 1) provide some empirical evidence that megafauna distributed fruit species have a smaller mean range size than wind, water or other animal‐dispersed species, 2) demonstrate mathematically that such range reductions are expected from megafauna extinctions ca 12 000 yr ago, and 3) illustrate that these extinctions may have reduced the Amazon's carbon storage capacity.     

Long-term differences in extinction risk among the seven forms of rarity

Rarity is widely used to predict the vulnerability of species to extinction. Species can be rare in markedly different ways, but the relative impacts of these different forms of rarity on extinction risk are poorly known and cannot be determined through observations of species that are not yet extinct. The fossil record provides a valuable archive with which we can directly determine which aspects of rarity lead to the greatest risk. Previous palaeontological analyses confirm that rarity is associated with extinction risk, but the relative contributions of different types of rarity to extinction risk remain unknown because their impacts have never been examined simultaneously. Here, we analyse a global database of fossil marine animals spanning the past 500 million years, examining differential extinction with respect to multiple rarity types within each geological stage. We observe systematic differences in extinction risk over time among marine genera classified according to their rarity. Geographic range played a primary role in determining extinction, and habitat breadth a secondary role, whereas local abundance had little effect. These results suggest that current reductions in geographic range size will lead to pronounced increases in long-term extinction risk even if local populations are relatively large at present.     

Drivers and interrelationships among multiple dimensions of rarity for freshwater fishes

Species can be rare or common in three different dimensions: geographic range size, habitat breadth, and local abundance. Understanding drivers of rarity are not only fundamentally interesting; it is also pertinent for their conservation. We addressed this challenge by analyzing the rarity of 291 native freshwater fishes occurring in ca 3500 independent stream reaches that span a broad environmental gradient across continental USA. Using phylogenetic regression and path analysis, we examined the concordance among the three rarity dimensions, and identified possible mechanisms by which species life‐history, habitat affinities, and biogeography drive variation in rarity. Weak double extinction jeopardies were driven by weakly positive correlations between habitat breadth and local abundance, and between habitat breadth and geographic range size. However, a triple extinction jeopardy was averted as local abundance and range size were not positively linked in our study. This is because large‐river and lacustrine habitat use mediated a trade‐off between local abundance and range size. Large rivers and lacustrine habitats represent important dispersal pathways and refugia that enabled fishes to acquire wide ranges; however, species using these habitats are less abundant overall because they are less adapted to small lotic channels, which comprise the majority of stream habitats in the US. Life‐history traits were key in governing the relationship between abundance and range size as large‐river and lacustrine habitat use were driven by body size, egg size, and parental care. Our analysis contributes novel insights into mechanisms that underlie multiple dimensions of rarity in freshwater fish and informs the prioritization of multiply rare species for conservation.     

Metapopulation models for extinction threshold in spatially correlated landscapes

Simple analytical models assuming homogeneous space have been used to examine the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on metapopulation size. The models predict an extinction threshold, a critical amount of suitable habitat below which the metapopulation goes deterministically extinct. The consequences of non-random loss of habitat for species with localized dispersal have been studied mainly numerically. In this paper, we present two analytical approaches to the study of habitat loss and its metapopulation dynamic consequences incorporating spatial correlation in both metapopulation dynamics as well as in the pattern of habitat destruction. One approach is based on a measure called metapopulation capacity, given by the dominant eigenvalue of a "landscape" matrix, which encapsulates the effects of landscape structure on population extinctions and colonizations. The other approach is based on pair approximation. These models allow us to examine analytically the effects of spatial structure in habitat loss on the equilibrium metapopulation size and the threshold condition for persistence. In contrast to the pair approximation based approaches, the metapopulation capacity based approach allows us to consider species with long as well as short dispersal range and landscapes with spatial correlation at different scales. The two methods make dissimilar assumptions, but the broad conclusions concerning the consequences of spatial correlation in the landscape structure are the same. Our results show that increasing correlation in the spatial arrangement of the remaining habitat increases patch occupancy, that this increase is more evident for species with short-range than long-range dispersal, and that to be most beneficial for metapopulation size, the range of spatial correlation in landscape structure should be at least a few times greater than the dispersal range of the species.     

Correlates of rediscovery and the detectability of extinction in mammals

Extinction is difficult to detect, even in well-known taxa such as mammals. Species with long gaps in their sighting records, which might be considered possibly extinct, are often rediscovered. We used data on rediscovery rates of missing mammals to test whether extinction from different causes is equally detectable and to find which traits affect the probability of rediscovery. We find that species affected by habitat loss were much more likely to be misclassified as extinct or to remain missing than those affected by introduced predators and diseases, or overkill, unless they had very restricted distributions. We conclude that extinctions owing to habitat loss are most difficult to detect; hence, impacts of habitat loss on extinction have probably been overestimated, especially relative to introduced species. It is most likely that the highest rates of rediscovery will come from searching for species that have gone missing during the 20th century and have relatively large ranges threatened by habitat loss, rather than from additional effort focused on charismatic missing species.     

Determinism in a transient assemblage: the roles of dispersal and local competition

Both dispersal and local competitive ability may determine the outcome of competition among species that cannot coexist locally. I develop a spatially implicit model of two-species competition at a small spatial scale. The model predicts the relative fitness of two competitors based on local reproductive rates and regional dispersal rates in the context of the number, size, and extinction probability of habitat patches in the landscape. I test the predictions of this model experimentally using two genotypes of the bacteriophagous soil nematode Caenorhabditis elegans in patchy microcosms. One genotype has higher fecundity while the other is a better disperser. With such a fecundity-dispersal trade-off between competitors, the model predicts that relative fitness will be affected most by local population size when patches do not go extinct and by the number of patches when there is a high probability of patch extinction. The microcosm experiments support the model predictions. Both approaches suggest that competitive dominance in a patchily distributed transient assemblage will depend upon the architecture and predictability of the environment. These mechanisms, operating at a small scale with high spatial admixture, may be embedded in a larger metacommunity process.