Meta-analysis of phenotypic selection on flowering phenology suggests that early flowering plants are favoured

Flowering times of plants are important life-history components and it has previously been hypothesized that flowering phenologies may be currently subject to natural selection or be selectively neutral. In this study we reviewed the evidence for phenotypic selection acting on flowering phenology using ordinary and phylogenetic meta-analysis. Phenotypic selection exists when a phenotypic trait co-varies with fitness; therefore, we looked for studies reporting an association between two components of flowering phenology (flowering time or flowering synchrony) with fitness. Data sets comprising 87 and 18 plant species were then used to assess the incidence and strength of phenotypic selection on flowering time and flowering synchrony, respectively. The influence of dependence on pollinators, the duration of the reproductive event, latitude and plant longevity as moderators of selection were also explored. Our results suggest that selection favours early flowering plants, but the strength of selection is influenced by latitude, with selection being stronger in temperate environments. However, there is no consistent pattern of selection on flowering synchrony. Our study demonstrates that phenotypic selection on flowering time is consistent and relatively strong, in contrast to previous hypotheses of selective neutrality, and has implications for the evolution of temperate floras under global climate change.     

Plasticity in functional traits in the context of climate change: a case study of the subalpine forb Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae)

Environmental variation often induces shifts in functional traits, yet we know little about whether plasticity will reduce extinction risks under climate change. As climate change proceeds, phenotypic plasticity could enable species with limited dispersal capacity to persist in situ, and migrating populations of other species to establish in new sites at higher elevations or latitudes. Alternatively, climate change could induce maladaptive plasticity, reducing fitness, and potentially stalling adaptation and migration. Here, we quantified plasticity in life history, foliar morphology, and ecophysiology in Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae), a perennial forb native to the Rocky Mountains. In this region, warming winters are reducing snowpack and warming springs are advancing the timing of snow melt. We hypothesized that traits that were historically advantageous in hot and dry, low‐elevation locations will be favored at higher elevation sites due to climate change. To test this hypothesis, we quantified trait variation in natural populations across an elevational gradient. We then estimated plasticity and genetic variation in common gardens at two elevations. Finally, we tested whether climatic manipulations induce plasticity, with the prediction that plants exposed to early snow removal would resemble individuals from lower elevation populations. In natural populations, foliar morphology and ecophysiology varied with elevation in the predicted directions. In the common gardens, trait plasticity was generally concordant with phenotypic clines from the natural populations. Experimental snow removal advanced flowering phenology by 7 days, which is similar in magnitude to flowering time shifts over 2–3 decades of climate change. Therefore, snow manipulations in this system can be used to predict eco‐evolutionary responses to global change. Snow removal also altered foliar morphology, but in unexpected ways. Extensive plasticity could buffer against immediate fitness declines due to changing climates.     

A natural heating experiment: Phenotypic and genotypic responses of plant phenology to geothermal soil warming

Under global warming, the survival of many populations of sedentary organisms in seasonal environments will largely depend on their ability to cope with warming in situ by means of phenotypic plasticity or adaptive evolution. This is particularly true in high‐latitude environments, where current growing seasons are short, and expected temperature increases large. In such short‐growing season environments, the timing of growth and reproduction is critical to survival. Here, we use the unique setting provided by a natural geothermal soil warming gradient (Hengill geothermal area, Iceland) to study the response of Cerastium fontanum flowering phenology to temperature. We hypothesized that trait expression and phenotypic selection on flowering phenology are related to soil temperature, and tested the hypothesis that temperature‐driven differences in selection on phenology have resulted in genetic differentiation using a common garden experiment. In the field, phenology was related to soil temperature, with plants in warmer microsites flowering earlier than plants at colder microsites. In the common garden, plants responded to spring warming in a counter‐gradient fashion; plants originating from warmer microsites flowered relatively later than those originating from colder microsites. A likely explanation for this pattern is that plants from colder microsites have been selected to compensate for the shorter growing season by starting development at lower temperatures. However, in our study we did not find evidence of variation in phenotypic selection on phenology in relation to temperature, but selection consistently favoured early flowering. Our results show that soil temperature influences trait expression and suggest the existence of genetically based variation in flowering phenology leading to counter‐gradient local adaptation along a gradient of soil temperatures. An important implication of our results is that observed phenotypic responses of phenology to global warming might often be a combination of short‐term plastic responses and long‐term evolutionary responses, acting in different directions.     

Earlier snow melt and reduced summer precipitation alter floral traits important to pollination

Climate change can cause changes in expression of organismal traits that influence fitness. In flowering plants, floral traits can respond to drought, and that phenotypic plasticity has the potential to affect pollination and plant reproductive success. Global climate change is leading to earlier snow melt in snow-dominated ecosystems as well as affecting precipitation during the growing season, but the effects of snow melt timing on floral morphology and rewards remain unknown. We conducted crossed manipulations of spring snow melt timing (early vs. control) and summer monsoon precipitation (addition, control, and reduction) that mimicked recent natural variation, and examined plastic responses in floral traits of Ipomopsis aggregata over 3 years in the Rocky Mountains. We tested whether increased summer precipitation compensated for earlier snow melt, and if plasticity was associated with changes in soil moisture and/or leaf gas exchange. Lower summer precipitation decreased corolla length, style length, corolla width, sepal width, and nectar production, and increased nectar concentration. Earlier snow melt (taking into account natural and experimental variation) had the same effects on those traits and decreased inflorescence height. The effect of reduced summer precipitation was stronger in earlier snow melt years for corolla length and sepal width. Trait reductions were explained by drier soil during the flowering period, but this effect was only partially explained by how drier soils affected plant water stress, as measured by leaf gas exchange. We predicted the effects of plastic trait changes on pollinator visitation rates, pollination success, and seed production using prior studies on I. aggregata. The largest predicted effect of drier soil on relative fitness components via plasticity was a decrease in male fitness caused by reduced pollinator rewards (nectar production). Early snow melt and reduced precipitation are strong drivers of phenotypic plasticity, and both should be considered when predicting effects of climate change on plant traits in snow-dominated ecosystems.     

Phenotypic selection on flowering phenology and pollination efficiency traits between Primula populations with different pollinator assemblages

Floral traits have largely been attributed to phenotypic selection in plant–pollinator interactions. However, the strength of this link has rarely been ascertained with real pollinators. We conducted pollinator observations and estimated selection through female fitness on flowering phenology and floral traits between two Primula secundiflora populations. We quantified pollinator‐mediated selection by subtracting estimates of selection gradients of plants receiving supplemental hand pollination from those of plants receiving open pollination. There was net directional selection for an earlier flowering start date at populations where the dominant pollinators were syrphid flies, and flowering phenology was also subjected to stabilized quadratic selection. However, a later flowering start date was significantly selected at populations where the dominant pollinators were legitimate (normal pollination through the corolla tube entrance) and illegitimate bumblebees (abnormal pollination through nectar robbing hole which located at the corolla tube), and flowering phenology was subjected to disruptive quadratic selection. Wider corolla tube entrance diameter was selected at both populations. Furthermore, the strength of net directional selection on flowering start date and corolla tube entrance diameter was stronger at the population where the dominant pollinators were syrphid flies. Pollinator‐mediated selection explained most of the between‐population variations in the net directional selection on flowering phenology and corolla tube entrance diameter. Our results suggested the important influence of pollinator‐mediated selection on floral evolution. Variations in pollinator assemblages not only resulted in variation in the direction of selection but also the strength of selection on floral traits.     

Spatio‐temporal variation in fitness responses to contrasting environments in Arabidopsis thaliana

The evolutionary response of organisms to global climate change is expected to be strongly conditioned by preexisting standing genetic variation. In addition, natural selection imposed by global climate change on fitness‐related traits can be heterogeneous over time. We estimated selection of life‐history traits of an entire genetic lineage of the plant Arabidopsis thaliana occurring in north‐western Iberian Peninsula that were transplanted over multiple years into two environmentally contrasting field sites in southern Spain, as southern environments are expected to move progressively northwards with climate change in the Iberian Peninsula. The results indicated that natural selection on flowering time prevailed over that on recruitment. Selection favored early flowering in six of eight experiments and late flowering in the other two. Such heterogeneity of selection for flowering time might be a powerful mechanism for maintaining genetic diversity in the long run. We also found that north‐western A. thaliana accessions from warmer environments exhibited higher fitness and higher phenotypic plasticity for flowering time in southern experimental facilities. Overall, our transplant experiments suggested that north‐western Iberian A. thaliana has the means to cope with increasingly warmer environments in the region as predicted by trends in global climate change models.     

Evolutionary stasis of a heritable morphological trait in a wild fish population despite apparent directional selection

Comparing observed versus theoretically expected evolutionary responses is important for our understanding of the evolutionary process, and for assessing how species may cope with anthropogenic change. Here, we document directional selection for larger female size in Atlantic salmon, using pedigree‐derived estimates of lifetime reproductive success as a fitness measure. We show the trait is heritable and, thus, capable of responding to selection. The Breeder's Equation, which predicts microevolution as the product of phenotypic selection and heritability, predicted evolution of larger size. This was at odds, however, with the observed lack of either phenotypic or genetic temporal trends in body size, a so‐called “paradox of stasis.” To investigate this paradox, we estimated the additive genetic covariance between trait and fitness, which provides a prediction of evolutionary change according to Robertson's secondary theorem of selection (STS) that is unbiased by missing variables. The STS prediction was consistent with the observed stasis. Decomposition of phenotypic selection gradients into genetic and environmental components revealed a potential upward bias, implying unmeasured factors that covary with trait and fitness. These results showcase the power of pedigreed, wild population studies—which have largely been limited to birds and mammals—to study evolutionary processes on contemporary timescales.     

Strong patterns of intraspecific variation and local adaptation in Great Basin plants revealed through a review of 75 years of experiments

Variation in natural selection across heterogeneous landscapes often produces (a) among‐population differences in phenotypic traits, (b) trait‐by‐environment associations, and (c) higher fitness of local populations. Using a broad literature review of common garden studies published between 1941 and 2017, we documented the commonness of these three signatures in plants native to North America's Great Basin, an area of extensive restoration and revegetation efforts, and asked which traits and environmental variables were involved. We also asked, independent of geographic distance, whether populations from more similar environments had more similar traits. From 327 experiments testing 121 taxa in 170 studies, we found 95.1% of 305 experiments reported among‐population differences, and 81.4% of 161 experiments reported trait‐by‐environment associations. Locals showed greater survival in 67% of 24 reciprocal experiments that reported survival, and higher fitness in 90% of 10 reciprocal experiments that reported reproductive output. A meta‐analysis on a subset of studies found that variation in eight commonly measured traits was associated with mean annual precipitation and mean annual temperature at the source location, with notably strong relationships for flowering phenology, leaf size, and survival, among others. Although the Great Basin is sometimes perceived as a region of homogeneous ecosystems, our results demonstrate widespread habitat‐related population differentiation and local adaptation. Locally sourced plants likely harbor adaptations at rates and magnitudes that are immediately relevant to restoration success, and our results suggest that certain key traits and environmental variables should be prioritized in future assessments of plants in this region.     

Experimental migration upward in elevation is associated with strong selection on life history traits

One of the strongest biological impacts of climate change has been the movement of species poleward and upward in elevation. Yet, what is not clear is the extent to which the spatial distribution of locally adapted lineages and ecologically important traits may also shift with continued climate change. Here, we take advantage of a transplant experiment mimicking up‐slope seed dispersal for a suite of ecologically diverse populations of yellow monkeyflower (Mimulus guttatus sensu lato) into a high‐elevation common garden during an extreme drought period in the Sierra Nevada mountains, California, USA. We use a demographic approach to quantify fitness and test for selection on life history traits in local versus lower‐elevation populations and in normal versus drought years to test the potential for up‐slope migration and phenotypic selection to alter the distribution of key life history traits in montane environments. We find that lower‐elevation populations tend to outperform local populations, confirming the potential for up‐slope migration. Although selection generally favored some local montane traits, including larger flowers and larger stem size at flowering, drought conditions tended to select for earlier flowering typical of lower‐elevation genotypes. Taken together, this suggests that monkeyflower lineages moving upward in elevation could experience selection for novel trait combinations, particularly under warmer and drier conditions that are predicted to occur with continued climate change.     

Response to joint selection on germination and flowering phenology depends on the direction of selection

Flowering and germination time are components of phenology, a complex phenotype that incorporates a number of traits. In natural populations, selection is likely to occur on multiple components of phenology at once. However, we have little knowledge of how joint selection on several phenological traits influences evolutionary response. We conducted one generation of artificial selection for all combinations of early and late germination and flowering on replicated lines within two independent base populations in the herb Campanula americana. We then measured response to selection and realized heritability for each trait. Response to selection and heritability were greater for flowering time than germination time, indicating greater evolutionary potential of this trait. Selection for earlier phenology, both flowering and germination, did not depend on the direction of selection on the other trait, whereas response to selection to delay germination and flowering was greater when selection on the other trait was in the opposite direction (e.g., early germination and late flowering), indicating a negative genetic correlation between the traits. Therefore, the extent to which correlations shaped response to selection depended on the direction of selection. Furthermore, the genetic correlation between timing of germination and flowering varies across the trait distributions. The negative correlation between germination and flowering time found when selecting for delayed phenology follows theoretical predictions of constraint for traits that jointly determine life history schedule. In contrast, the lack of constraint found when selecting for an accelerated phenology suggests a reduction of the covariance due to strong selection favoring earlier flowering and a shorter life cycle. This genetic architecture, in turn, will facilitate further evolution of the early phenology often favored in warm climates.     

Divergent selection on flowering phenology but not on floral morphology between two closely related orchids

Closely related species often differ in traits that influence reproductive success, suggesting that divergent selection on such traits contribute to the maintenance of species boundaries. Gymnadenia conopsea ss. and Gymnadenia densiflora are two closely related, perennial orchid species that differ in (a) floral traits important for pollination, including flowering phenology, floral display, and spur length, and (b) dominant pollinators. If plant–pollinator interactions contribute to the maintenance of trait differences between these two taxa, we expect current divergent selection on flowering phenology and floral morphology between the two species. We quantified phenotypic selection via female fitness in one year on flowering start, three floral display traits (plant height, number of flowers, and corolla size) and spur length, in six populations of G. conopsea s.s. and in four populations of G. densiflora. There was indication of divergent selection on flowering start in the expected direction, with selection for earlier flowering in two populations of the early‐flowering G. conopsea s.s. and for later flowering in one population of the late‐flowering G. densiflora. No divergent selection on floral morphology was detected, and there was no significant stabilizing selection on any trait in the two species. The results suggest ongoing adaptive differentiation of flowering phenology, strengthening this premating reproductive barrier between the two species. Synthesis: This study is among the first to test whether divergent selection on floral traits contribute to the maintenance of species differences between closely related plants. Phenological isolation confers a substantial potential for reproductive isolation, and divergent selection on flowering time can thus greatly influence reproductive isolation and adaptive differentiation.     

Terrestrial insects and climate change: adaptive responses in key traits

Understanding and predicting how adaptation will contribute to species' resilience to climate change will be paramount to successfully managing biodiversity for conservation, agriculture, and human health‐related purposes. Making predictions that capture how species will respond to climate change requires an understanding of how key traits and environmental drivers interact to shape fitness in a changing world. Current trait‐based models suggest that low‐ to mid‐latitude populations will be most at risk, although these models focus on upper thermal limits, which may not be the most important trait driving species' distributions and fitness under climate change. In this review, we discuss how different traits (stress, fitness and phenology) might contribute and interact to shape insect responses to climate change. We examine the potential for adaptive genetic and plastic responses in these key traits and show that, although there is evidence of range shifts and trait changes, explicit consideration of what underpins these changes, be that genetic or plastic responses, is largely missing. Despite little empirical evidence for adaptive shifts, incorporating adaptation into models of climate change resilience is essential for predicting how species will respond under climate change. We are making some headway, although more data are needed, especially from taxonomic groups outside of Drosophila, and across diverse geographical regions. Climate change responses are likely to be complex, and such complexity will be difficult to capture in laboratory experiments. Moving towards well designed field experiments would allow us to not only capture this complexity, but also study more diverse species.     

Assortative mating by flowering time and its effect on correlated traits in variable environments

Reproductive timing is a key life‐history trait that impacts the pool of available mates, the environment experienced during flowering, and the expression of other traits through genetic covariation. Selection on phenology, and its consequences on other life‐history traits, has considerable implications in the context of ongoing climate change and shifting growing seasons. To test this, we grew field‐collected seed from the wildflower Mimulus guttatus in a greenhouse to assess the standing genetic variation for flowering time and covariation with other traits. We then created full‐sib families through phenological assortative mating and grew offspring in three photoperiod treatments representing seasonal variation in daylength. We find substantial quantitative genetic variation for the onset of flowering time, which covaried with vegetative traits. The assortatively‐mated offspring varied in their critical photoperiod by over two hours, so that families differed in their probability of flowering across treatments Allocation to flowering and vegetative growth changed across the daylength treatments, with consistent direction and magnitude of covariation among flowering time and other traits. Our results suggest that future studies of flowering time evolution should consider the joint evolution of correlated traits and shifting seasonal selection to understand how environmental variation influences life histories.     

Selection on flowering time in Mediterranean high-mountain plants under global warming

Under climate warming, plants will undergo novel selective pressures to adjust reproductive timing. Adjustment between reproductive phenology and environment is expected to be higher in arctic and alpine habitats because the growing season is considerably short. As early- and late-flowering species reproduce under very different environmental conditions, selective pressures on flowering phenology and potential effects of climate change are likely to differ between them. However, there is no agreement on the magnitude of the benefits and costs of early- vs. late-flowering species under a global warming scenario. In spite of its relevance, phenotypic selection on flowering phenology has rarely been explored in alpine plants and never in Mediterranean high mountain species, where selective pressures are very different due to the summer drought imposed over the short growth season. We hypothesized that late-flowering plants in Mediterranean mountains should present stronger selective pressures towards early onset of reproduction than early-flowering species, because less water is available in the soil as growing season progresses. We performed selection analyses on flowering onset and duration in two high mountain species of contrasting phenology. Since phenotypic selection can be highly context-dependent, we studied several populations of each species for 2 years, covering their local altitudinal ranges and their different microhabitats. Surrogates of biotic selective agents, like fruitset for pollinators and flower and fruit loss for flower and seed predators, were included in the analysis. Differences between the early- and the late-flowering species were less than expected. A consistent negative correlational selection of flowering onset and duration was found affecting plant fitness, i.e., plants that bloomed earlier flowered for longer periods improving plant fitness. Nevertheless, the late-flowering species may experience higher risks under climate warming because in extremely warm and dry years the earlier season does not bring about a longer flowering duration due to summer drought.     

Local plant density,pollination and trait–fitness relationships in a perennial herb

Both differences in local plant density and phenotypic traits may affect pollination and plant reproduction, but little is known about how density affects trait–fitness relationships via changes in pollinator activity. In this study we examined how plant density and traits interact to determine pollinator behaviour and female reproductive success in the self‐incompatible, perennial herb Phyteuma spicatum. Specifically, we hypothesised that limited pollination service in more isolated plants would lead to increased selection for traits that attract pollinators. We conducted pollinator observations and assessed trait–fitness relationships in a natural population, whose individuals were surrounded by a variable number of inflorescences. Both local plant density and plant phenotypic traits affected pollinator foraging behaviour. At low densities, pollinator visitation rates were low, but increased with increasing inflorescence size, while this relationship disappeared at high densities, where visitation rates were higher. Plant fitness, in terms of seed production per plant and per capsule, was related to both floral display size and flowering time. Seed production increased with increasing inflorescence size and was highest at peak flowering. However, trait–fitness relationships were not density‐dependent, and differences in seed production did not appear to be related to differences in pollination. The reasons for this remain unclear, and additional studies are needed to fully understand and explain the observed patterns.     

Quantification and decomposition of environment‐selection relationships

In nature, selection varies across time in most environments, but we lack an understanding of how specific ecological changes drive this variation. Ecological factors can alter phenotypic selection coefficients through changes in trait distributions or individual mean fitness, even when the trait‐absolute fitness relationship remains constant. We apply and extend a regression‐based approach in a population of Soay sheep (Ovis aries) and suggest metrics of environment‐selection relationships that can be compared across studies. We then introduce a novel method that constructs an environmentally structured fitness function. This allows calculation of full (as in existing approaches) and partial (acting separately through the absolute fitness function slope, mean fitness, and phenotype distribution) sensitivities of selection to an ecological variable. Both approaches show positive overall effects of density on viability selection of lamb mass. However, the second approach demonstrates that this relationship is largely driven by effects of density on mean fitness, rather than on the trait‐fitness relationship slope. If such mechanisms of environmental dependence of selection are common, this could have important implications regarding the frequency of fluctuating selection, and how previous selection inferences relate to longer term evolutionary dynamics.     

Lizards fail to plastically adjust nesting behavior or thermal tolerance as needed to buffer populations from climate warming

Although observations suggest the potential for phenotypic plasticity to allow adaptive responses to climate change, few experiments have assessed that potential. Modeling suggests that Sceloporus tristichus lizards will need increased nest depth, shade cover, or embryonic thermal tolerance to avoid reproductive failure resulting from climate change. To test for such plasticity, we experimentally examined how maternal temperatures affect nesting behavior and embryonic thermal sensitivity. The temperature regime that females experienced while gravid did not affect nesting behavior, but warmer temperatures at the time of nesting reduced nest depth. Additionally, embryos from heat‐stressed mothers displayed increased sensitivity to high‐temperature exposure. Simulations suggest that critically low temperatures, rather than high temperatures, historically limit development of our study population. Thus, the plasticity needed to buffer this population has not been under selection. Plasticity will likely fail to compensate for ongoing climate change when such change results in novel stressors.     

Selection and plasticity both account for interannual variation in life‐history phenology in an annual prairie legume

As the environment changes, so too must plant communities and populations if they are to persist. Life‐history transitions and their timing are often the traits that are most responsive to changing environmental conditions. To compare the contributions of plasticity and natural selective response to variation in germination and flowering phenology, we performed a quantitative genetic study of phenotypic selection on Chamaecrista fasciculata (Fabaceae) across two consecutive years in a restored tallgrass prairie. The earliest dates of germination and flowering were recorded for two parental cohorts and one progeny cohort in an experimental garden. Environmental differences between years were the largest contributors to phenological variation in this population. In addition, there was substantial heritability for flowering time and statistically significant selection for advancement of flowering. Comparison between a progeny cohort and its preselection parental cohort indicated a change in mean flowering time consistent with the direction of selection. Selection on germination time was weaker than that on flowering time, while environmental effects on germination time were stronger. The response to selection on flowering time was detectable when accounting for the effect of the environment on phenotypic differences, highlighting the importance of controlling for year‐to‐year environmental variation in quantitative genetic studies.     

Phenotypic selection on flowering phenology and size in two dioecious plant species with different pollen vectors

Dioecious plants may be pollinated biotically by animals or abiotically via wind or water currents. It has been hypothesized that these two types of pollen vectors might impose contrasting selective pressures on plant flowering phenology. In the present study we describe the flowering phenology of two sympatric dioecious species with contrasting pollination modes: Mercurialis perennis (wind‐pollinated) and Tamus communis (insect‐pollinated). We estimated selection differentials and gradients for flowering time and flowering synchrony. As flowering time might depend on the accumulation of enough internal resources, we also estimated direct and indirect selection on plant size. Both species have male‐biased sexual ratios, and males are bigger and produce larger flower displays than females, but only in T. communis do males bloom earlier and for longer than females. Selection gradients suggest that selection tends to favor early‐flowering females of T. communis. There is no evidence of direct current selection on the flowering phenology of M. perennis. Intersexual differences in phenology fit with sex allocation and sexual selection theories. As we hypothesized, phenology of the animal‐pollinated species is under stronger selection than that of the wind‐pollinated species and we discuss the potential role of pollen vectors in shaping the flowering phenologies of the study species.