Selection and plasticity both account for interannual variation in life‐history phenology in an annual prairie legume

As the environment changes, so too must plant communities and populations if they are to persist. Life‐history transitions and their timing are often the traits that are most responsive to changing environmental conditions. To compare the contributions of plasticity and natural selective response to variation in germination and flowering phenology, we performed a quantitative genetic study of phenotypic selection on Chamaecrista fasciculata (Fabaceae) across two consecutive years in a restored tallgrass prairie. The earliest dates of germination and flowering were recorded for two parental cohorts and one progeny cohort in an experimental garden. Environmental differences between years were the largest contributors to phenological variation in this population. In addition, there was substantial heritability for flowering time and statistically significant selection for advancement of flowering. Comparison between a progeny cohort and its preselection parental cohort indicated a change in mean flowering time consistent with the direction of selection. Selection on germination time was weaker than that on flowering time, while environmental effects on germination time were stronger. The response to selection on flowering time was detectable when accounting for the effect of the environment on phenotypic differences, highlighting the importance of controlling for year‐to‐year environmental variation in quantitative genetic studies.     

Direct and indirect selection on flowering time,water‐use efficiency (WUE, δ13C), and WUE plasticity to drought in Arabidopsis thaliana

Flowering time and water-use efficiency (WUE) are two ecological traits that are important for plant drought response. To understand the evolutionary significance of natural genetic variation in flowering time, WUE, and WUE plasticity to drought in Arabidopsis thaliana, we addressed the following questions: (1) How are ecophysiological traits genetically correlated within and between different soil moisture environments? (2) Does terminal drought select for early flowering and drought escape? (3) Is WUE plasticity to drought adaptive and/or costly? We measured a suite of ecophysiological and reproductive traits on 234 spring flowering accessions of A. thaliana grown in well-watered and season-ending soil drying treatments, and quantified patterns of genetic variation, correlation, and selection within each treatment. WUE and flowering time were consistently positively genetically correlated. WUE was correlated with WUE plasticity, but the direction changed between treatments. Selection generally favored early flowering and low WUE, with drought favoring earlier flowering significantly more than well-watered conditions. Selection for lower WUE was marginally stronger under drought. There were no net fitness costs of WUE plasticity. WUE plasticity (per se) was globally neutral, but locally favored under drought. Strong genetic correlation between WUE and flowering time may facilitate the evolution of drought escape, or constrain independent evolution of these traits. Terminal drought favored drought escape in these spring flowering accessions of A. thaliana. WUE plasticity may be favored over completely fixed development in environments with periodic drought.     

Divergent selection on flowering phenology but not on floral morphology between two closely related orchids

Closely related species often differ in traits that influence reproductive success, suggesting that divergent selection on such traits contribute to the maintenance of species boundaries. Gymnadenia conopsea ss. and Gymnadenia densiflora are two closely related, perennial orchid species that differ in (a) floral traits important for pollination, including flowering phenology, floral display, and spur length, and (b) dominant pollinators. If plant–pollinator interactions contribute to the maintenance of trait differences between these two taxa, we expect current divergent selection on flowering phenology and floral morphology between the two species. We quantified phenotypic selection via female fitness in one year on flowering start, three floral display traits (plant height, number of flowers, and corolla size) and spur length, in six populations of G. conopsea s.s. and in four populations of G. densiflora. There was indication of divergent selection on flowering start in the expected direction, with selection for earlier flowering in two populations of the early‐flowering G. conopsea s.s. and for later flowering in one population of the late‐flowering G. densiflora. No divergent selection on floral morphology was detected, and there was no significant stabilizing selection on any trait in the two species. The results suggest ongoing adaptive differentiation of flowering phenology, strengthening this premating reproductive barrier between the two species. Synthesis: This study is among the first to test whether divergent selection on floral traits contribute to the maintenance of species differences between closely related plants. Phenological isolation confers a substantial potential for reproductive isolation, and divergent selection on flowering time can thus greatly influence reproductive isolation and adaptive differentiation.     

Assortative mating by flowering time and its effect on correlated traits in variable environments

Reproductive timing is a key life‐history trait that impacts the pool of available mates, the environment experienced during flowering, and the expression of other traits through genetic covariation. Selection on phenology, and its consequences on other life‐history traits, has considerable implications in the context of ongoing climate change and shifting growing seasons. To test this, we grew field‐collected seed from the wildflower Mimulus guttatus in a greenhouse to assess the standing genetic variation for flowering time and covariation with other traits. We then created full‐sib families through phenological assortative mating and grew offspring in three photoperiod treatments representing seasonal variation in daylength. We find substantial quantitative genetic variation for the onset of flowering time, which covaried with vegetative traits. The assortatively‐mated offspring varied in their critical photoperiod by over two hours, so that families differed in their probability of flowering across treatments Allocation to flowering and vegetative growth changed across the daylength treatments, with consistent direction and magnitude of covariation among flowering time and other traits. Our results suggest that future studies of flowering time evolution should consider the joint evolution of correlated traits and shifting seasonal selection to understand how environmental variation influences life histories.     

Climate drives among‐year variation in natural selection on flowering time

To predict long‐term responses to climate change, we need to understand how changes in temperature and precipitation elicit both immediate phenotypic responses and changes in natural selection. We used 22 years of data for the perennial herb Lathyrus vernus to examine how climate influences flowering phenology and phenotypic selection on phenology. Plants flowered earlier in springs with higher temperatures and higher precipitation. Early flowering was associated with a higher fitness in nearly all years, but selection for early flowering was significantly stronger in springs with higher temperatures and lower precipitation. Climate influenced selection through trait distributions, mean fitness and trait?fitness relationships, the latter accounting for most of the among‐year variation in selection. Our results show that climate both induces phenotypic responses and alters natural selection, and that the change in the optimal phenotype might be either weaker, as for spring temperature, or stronger, as for precipitation, than the optimal response.     

Phenotypic selection on flowering phenology and pollination efficiency traits between Primula populations with different pollinator assemblages

Floral traits have largely been attributed to phenotypic selection in plant–pollinator interactions. However, the strength of this link has rarely been ascertained with real pollinators. We conducted pollinator observations and estimated selection through female fitness on flowering phenology and floral traits between two Primula secundiflora populations. We quantified pollinator‐mediated selection by subtracting estimates of selection gradients of plants receiving supplemental hand pollination from those of plants receiving open pollination. There was net directional selection for an earlier flowering start date at populations where the dominant pollinators were syrphid flies, and flowering phenology was also subjected to stabilized quadratic selection. However, a later flowering start date was significantly selected at populations where the dominant pollinators were legitimate (normal pollination through the corolla tube entrance) and illegitimate bumblebees (abnormal pollination through nectar robbing hole which located at the corolla tube), and flowering phenology was subjected to disruptive quadratic selection. Wider corolla tube entrance diameter was selected at both populations. Furthermore, the strength of net directional selection on flowering start date and corolla tube entrance diameter was stronger at the population where the dominant pollinators were syrphid flies. Pollinator‐mediated selection explained most of the between‐population variations in the net directional selection on flowering phenology and corolla tube entrance diameter. Our results suggested the important influence of pollinator‐mediated selection on floral evolution. Variations in pollinator assemblages not only resulted in variation in the direction of selection but also the strength of selection on floral traits.     

Predicted accuracy of and response to genomic selection for new traits in dairy cattle

Genomic selection relaxes the requirement of traditional selection tools to have phenotypic measurements on close relatives of all selection candidates. This opens up possibilities to select for traits that are difficult or expensive to measure. The objectives of this paper were to predict accuracy of and response to genomic selection for a new trait, considering that only a cow reference population of moderate size was available for the new trait, and that selection simultaneously targeted an index and this new trait. Accuracy for and response to selection were deterministically evaluated for three different breeding goals. Single trait selection for the new trait based only on a limited cow reference population of up to 10 000 cows, showed that maximum genetic responses of 0.20 and 0.28 genetic standard deviation (s.d.) per year can be achieved for traits with a heritability of 0.05 and 0.30, respectively. Adding information from the index based on a reference population of 5000 bulls, and assuming a genetic correlation of 0.5, increased genetic response for both heritability levels by up to 0.14 genetic s.d. per year. The scenario with simultaneous selection for the new trait and the index, yielded a substantially lower response for the new trait, especially when the genetic correlation with the index was negative. Despite the lower response for the index, whenever the new trait had considerable economic value, including the cow reference population considerably improved the genetic response for the new trait. For scenarios with a zero or negative genetic correlation with the index and equal economic value for the index and the new trait, a reference population of 2000 cows increased genetic response for the new trait with at least 0.10 and 0.20 genetic s.d. per year, for heritability levels of 0.05 and 0.30, respectively. We conclude that for new traits with a very small or positive genetic correlation with the index, and a high positive economic value, considerable genetic response can already be achieved based on a cow reference population with only 2000 records, even when the reliability of individual genomic breeding values is much lower than currently accepted in dairy cattle breeding programs. New traits may generally have a negative genetic correlation with the index and a small positive economic value. For such new traits, cow reference populations of at least 10 000 cows may be required to achieve acceptable levels of genetic response for the new trait and for the whole breeding goal.     

Artificial selection shifts flowering phenology and other correlated traits in an autotetraploid herb

There is mounting evidence that plants are responding to anthropogenic climate change with shifts in flowering phenologies. We conducted a three-generation artificial selection experiment on flowering time in Campanulastrum americanum, an autotetraploid herb, to determine the potential for adaptive evolution of this trait as well as possible costs associated with enhanced or delayed flowering. Divergent selection for earlier and later flowering resulted in a 25-day difference in flowering time. Experiment-wide heritability was 0.31 and 0.23 for the initiation of flowering in early and late lines, respectively. Selection for earlier flowering resulted in significant correlated responses in other traits including smaller size, fewer branches, smaller floral displays, longer fruit maturation times, fewer seeds per fruit and slower seed germination. Results suggest that although flowering time shows the potential to adapt to a changing climate, phenological shifts may be associated with reduced plant fitness possibly hindering evolutionary change.     

Selection on QTL and complex traits in complex environments

Understanding genetic variation for complex traits in heterogeneous environments is a fundamental problem in biology. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Fournier‐Level et al. ( 2013 ) analyse quantitative trait loci (QTL) influencing ecologically important phenotypes in mapping populations of Arabidopsis thaliana grown in four habitats across its native European range. They used causal modelling to quantify the selective consequences of life history and morphological traits and QTL on components of fitness. They found phenology QTL colocalizing with known flowering time genes as well as novel loci. Most QTL influenced fitness via life history and size traits, rather than QTL having direct effects on fitness. Comparison of phenotypes among environments found no evidence for genetic trade‐offs for phenology or growth traits, but genetic trade‐offs for fitness resulted because flowering time had opposite fitness effects in different environments. These changes in QTL effects and selective consequences may maintain genetic variation among populations.     

Conflicting selection on the timing of germination in a natural population of Arabidopsis thaliana

The timing of germination is a key life‐history trait that may strongly influence plant fitness and that sets the stage for selection on traits expressed later in the life cycle. In seasonal environments, the period favourable for germination and the total length of the growing season are limited. The optimal timing of germination may therefore be governed by conflicting selection through survival and fecundity. We conducted a field experiment to examine the effects of timing of germination on survival, fecundity and overall fitness in a natural population of the annual herb Arabidopsis thaliana in north‐central Sweden. Seedlings were transplanted at three different times in late summer and in autumn covering the period of seed germination in the study population. Early germination was associated with low seedling survival, but also with high survival and fecundity among established plants. The advantages of germinating early more than balanced the disadvantage and selection favoured early germination. The results suggest that low survival among early germinating seeds is the main force opposing the evolution of earlier germination and that the optimal timing of germination should vary in space and time as a function of the direction and strength of selection acting during different life‐history stages.     

Fluctuating viability selection on morphology of cliff swallows is driven by climate

The extent to which fluctuating selection can maintain evolutionary stasis in most populations remains an unresolved question in evolutionary biology. Climate has been hypothesized to drive reversals in the direction of selection among different time periods and may also be responsible for intense episodic selection caused by rare weather events. We measured viability selection associated with morphological traits in cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota) in western Nebraska, USA, over a 14‐year period following a rare climatic event. We used mark‐recapture to estimate the annual apparent survival of over 26 000 individuals whose wing, tail, tarsus and bill had been measured. The fitness functions associated with tarsus length and bill dimensions fluctuated depending on annual climate conditions on the birds' breeding grounds. The oscillating yearly patterns may have slowed and occasionally reversed directional change in trait trajectories, although there was a trend over time for all traits except tarsus to increase in size. The net positive directional selection on some traits, despite periodic climate‐associated fluctuations, suggests that cliff swallow morphology in the population is likely to keep changing and supports recent work contending that selection in general does not fluctuate enough to be an effective driver of stasis.     

Natural selection, evolvability and bias due to environmental covariance in the field in an annual plant

Estimates of the form and magnitude of natural selection based on phenotypic relationships between traits and fitness measures can be biased when environmental factors influence both relative fitness and phenotypic trait values. I quantified genetic variances and covariances, and estimated linear and quadratic selection coefficients, for seven traits of an annual plant grown in the field. For replicates of 50 paternal half-sib families, coefficients of selection were calculated both for individual phenotypic values of the traits and for half-sib family mean values. The potential for evolutionary response was supported by significant heritability and phenotypic directional selection for several traits but contradicted by the absence of significant genetic variation for fitness estimates and evidence of bias in phenotypic selection coefficients due to environmental covariance for at least two of the traits analysed. Only studies of a much wider range of organisms and traits will reveal the frequency and extent of such bias.     

The evolution of compensation to herbivory in scarlet gilia, Ipomopsis aggregata: herbivore-imposed natural selection and the quantitative genetics of tolerance

Tolerance is the ability of plants to maintain fitness after experiencing herbivore damage. We investigated scarlet gilia tolerance to browsing in the framework of phenotypic plasticity using both an operational and candidate trait approach. Individuals from full-sib families were split into an artificial clipping treatment, a natural-damage treatment, or left as controls. We tested for genetic variation in tolerance by evaluating family x herbivory treatment interactions on fitness in a mixed model analysis of variance. In addition, we used selection analyses to assess the function of flowering phenology and compensatory regrowth (via branch production) as candidate tolerance traits. We found a strong detrimental fitness effect of browsing and considerable variation among sire half-sib families in levels of tolerance (25% to 63% of the fitness of controls). There was no evidence of overcompensation at either the population or family level and no additive genetic variation in operationally defined tolerance. Phenotypic selection analyses provide evidence that early flowering and compensatory regrowth function as tolerance characters. We found strong linear and correlational selection for early flowering and increased branch production for damaged plants and linear selection for apical dominance (reduced branchiness) and early flowering in control plants. Moreover, reduced phenological delay and increased plasticity in branch production were correlated with tolerance. We detected significant additive genetic variation in flowering phenology in both treatments and a positive genetic correlation between the phenology of control and damaged plants. We found significant additive genetic variation in branch production in undamaged and naturally damaged plants, but not in clipped plants. Damaged plants exhibited marginally significant additive genetic variance in fitness, although its heritability was very low (approximately 3.6%). We failed to find additive genetic variation in the fitness of control plants. Our results suggest that tolerance traits are under herbivore-imposed natural selection in this population, but that responses to selection are limited by available genetic variation and selective constraints.     

Meta-analysis of phenotypic selection on flowering phenology suggests that early flowering plants are favoured

Flowering times of plants are important life-history components and it has previously been hypothesized that flowering phenologies may be currently subject to natural selection or be selectively neutral. In this study we reviewed the evidence for phenotypic selection acting on flowering phenology using ordinary and phylogenetic meta-analysis. Phenotypic selection exists when a phenotypic trait co-varies with fitness; therefore, we looked for studies reporting an association between two components of flowering phenology (flowering time or flowering synchrony) with fitness. Data sets comprising 87 and 18 plant species were then used to assess the incidence and strength of phenotypic selection on flowering time and flowering synchrony, respectively. The influence of dependence on pollinators, the duration of the reproductive event, latitude and plant longevity as moderators of selection were also explored. Our results suggest that selection favours early flowering plants, but the strength of selection is influenced by latitude, with selection being stronger in temperate environments. However, there is no consistent pattern of selection on flowering synchrony. Our study demonstrates that phenotypic selection on flowering time is consistent and relatively strong, in contrast to previous hypotheses of selective neutrality, and has implications for the evolution of temperate floras under global climate change.     

The target of selection matters: An established resistance—development‐time negative genetic trade‐off is not found when selecting on development time

Trade‐offs are fundamental to evolutionary outcomes and play a central role in eco‐evolutionary theory. They are often examined by experimentally selecting on one life‐history trait and looking for negative correlations in other traits. For example, populations of the moth Plodia interpunctella selected to resist viral infection show a life‐history cost with longer development times. However, we rarely examine whether the detection of such negative genetic correlations depends on the trait on which we select. Here, we examine a well‐characterized negative genotypic trade‐off between development time and resistance to viral infection in the moth Plodia interpunctella and test whether selection on a phenotype known to be a cost of resistance (longer development time) leads to the predicted correlated increase in resistance. If there is tight pleiotropic relationship between genes that determine development time and resistance underpinning this trade‐off, we might expect increased resistance when we select on longer development time. However, we show that selecting for longer development time in this system selects for reduced resistance when compared to selection for shorter development time. This shows how phenotypes typically characterized by a trade‐off can deviate from that trade‐off relationship, and suggests little genetic linkage between the genes governing viral resistance and those that determine response to selection on the key life‐history trait. Our results are important for both selection strategies in applied biological systems and for evolutionary modelling of host–parasite interactions.     

The success of assisted colonization and assisted gene flow depends on phenology

Global warming will jeopardize the persistence and genetic diversity of many species. Assisted colonization, or the movement of species beyond their current range boundary, is a conservation strategy proposed for species with limited dispersal abilities or adaptive potential. However, species that rely on photoperiodic and thermal cues for development may experience conflicting signals if transported across latitudes. Relocating multiple, distinct populations may remedy this quandary by expanding genetic variation and promoting evolutionary responses in the receiving habitat – a strategy known as assisted gene flow. To better inform these policies, we planted seeds from latitudinally distinct populations of the annual legume, Chamaecrista fasciculata, in a potential future colonization site north of its current range boundary. Plants were exposed to ambient or elevated temperatures via infrared heating. We monitored several life history traits and estimated patterns of natural selection to determine the adaptive value of plastic responses. To assess the feasibility of assisted gene flow between phenologically distinct populations, we counted flowers each day and estimated the degree of temporal isolation between populations. Increased temperatures advanced each successive phenological trait more than the last, resulting in a compressed life cycle for all but the southern‐most population. Warming altered patterns of selection on flowering onset and vegetative biomass. Population performance was dependent on latitude of origin, with the northern‐most population performing best under ambient conditions and the southern‐most performing most poorly, even under elevated temperatures. Among‐population differences in flowering phenology limited the potential for genetic exchange among the northern‐ and southern‐most populations. All plastic responses to warming were neutral or adaptive; however, photoperiodic constraints will likely necessitate evolutionary responses for long‐term persistence, especially when involving populations from disparate latitudes. With strategic planning, our results suggest that assisted colonization and assisted gene flow may be feasible options for preservation.     

Evolutionary dynamics of the leaf phenological cycle in an oak metapopulation along an elevation gradient

It has been predicted that environmental changes will radically alter the selective pressures on phenological traits. Long‐lived species, such as trees, will be particularly affected, as they may need to undergo major adaptive change over only one or a few generations. The traits describing the annual life cycle of trees are generally highly evolvable, but nothing is known about the strength of their genetic correlations. Tight correlations can impose strong evolutionary constraints, potentially hampering the adaptation of multivariate phenological phenotypes. In this study, we investigated the evolutionary, genetic and environmental components of the timing of leaf unfolding and senescence within an oak metapopulation along an elevation gradient. Population divergence, estimated from in situ and common‐garden data, was compared to expectations under neutral evolution, based on microsatellite markers. This approach made it possible (1) to evaluate the influence of genetic correlation on multivariate local adaptation to elevation and (2) to identify traits probably exposed to past selective pressures due to the colder climate at high elevation. The genetic correlation was positive but very weak, indicating that genetic constraints did not shape the local adaptation pattern for leaf phenology. Both spring and fall (leaf unfolding and senescence, respectively) phenology timings were involved in local adaptation, but leaf unfolding was probably the trait most exposed to climate change‐induced selection. Our data indicated that genetic variation makes a much smaller contribution to adaptation than the considerable plastic variation displayed by a tree during its lifetime. The evolutionary potential of leaf phenology is, therefore, probably not the most critical aspect for short‐term population survival in a changing climate.     

Two-trait selection response with marker-based assortative mating

 Marker-based assortative mating (MAM) – the mating of individuals that have similar genotypes at random marker loci – can increase selection response for a single trait by 3–8% over random mating (RM). Genetic gain is usually desired for multiple traits rather than for a single trait. My objectives in this study were to (1) compare MAM, phenotypic assortative mating (PAM), and RM of selected individuals for improving two traits and (2) determine when MAM will be most useful for improving two traits. I simulated 20 generations of selecting 32 out of 200 individuals in an F₂ population. The individuals were selected based on an index (SI) of two traits and were intermated by MAM, PAM, or RM. I studied eight genetic models that differed in three contrasts: (1) weight, number of quantitative trait loci (QTL), and heritability (h ²) for each trait; (2) linkage of QTL for each trait; and (3) trait means of the inbred parents of the F₂. For SI and the two component traits, MAM increased short-term selection response by 5–8% in six out of the eight genetic models. The MAM procedure was least effective in two genetic models, wherein the QTL for one trait were unlinked to the QTL for the other trait and the parents of the F₂ had divergent means for each trait. The loss of QTL heterozygosity was much greater with MAM than with PAM or RM. Consequently, the advantage of MAM over RM dissipated after 5–7 generations. Differences were small between selection responses with PAM and RM. The MAM procedure can enhance short-term selection response for two traits when selection is not stringent, h ² is low, and the means of the parents of the F₂ are equal for each trait. Received: 10 June 1998 / Accepted: 5 August 1998     

Rapid changes in genetic architecture of behavioural syndromes following colonization of a novel environment

Behavioural syndromes, that is correlated behaviours, may be a result from adaptive correlational selection, but in a new environmental setting, the trait correlation might act as an evolutionary constraint. However, knowledge about the quantitative genetic basis of behavioural syndromes, and the stability and evolvability of genetic correlations under different ecological conditions, is limited. We investigated the quantitative genetic basis of correlated behaviours in the freshwater isopod Asellus aquaticus. In some Swedish lakes, A. aquaticus has recently colonized a novel habitat and diverged into two ecotypes, presumably due to habitat‐specific selection from predation. Using a common garden approach and animal model analyses, we estimated quantitative genetic parameters for behavioural traits and compared the genetic architecture between the ecotypes. We report that the genetic covariance structure of the behavioural traits has been altered in the novel ecotype, demonstrating divergence in behavioural correlations. Thus, our study confirms that genetic correlations behind behaviours can change rapidly in response to novel selective environments.     

Genetic architecture of a selection response in Arabidopsis thaliana

Quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping has become an established and effective method for studying the genetic architecture of complex traits. In this report, we use a QTL mapping approach in combination with data from a large selection experiment in Arabidopsis thaliana to explore a response to selection of experimental populations with differentiated genetic backgrounds. Experimental populations with genetic backgrounds derived from ecotypes Landsberg and Niederzenz were exposed to multiple generations of fertility and viability selection. This selection resulted in phenotypic shifts in a number of life-history and fitness-related characters including early development time, flowering time, dry biomass, longevity, and fruit production. Quantitative trait loci were mapped for these traits and their positions were compared to previously characterized allele frequency changes in the experimental populations (Ungerer et al. 2003). Quantitative trait locus positions largely colocalized with genomic regions under strong and consistent selection in populations with differentiated genetic backgrounds, suggesting that alleles for these traits were selected similarly in differentiated genetic backgrounds. However, one QTL region exhibited a more variable response; being positively selected on one genetic background but apparently neutral in another. This study demonstrates how QTL mapping approaches can be combined with map-based population genetic data to study how selection acts on standing genetic variation in populations.