Interactive effects between plant functional types and soil factors on tundra species diversity and community composition

Plant communities are coupled with abiotic factors, as species diversity and community composition both respond to and influence climate and soil characteristics. Interactions between vegetation and abiotic factors depend on plant functional types (PFT) as different growth forms will have differential responses to and effects on site characteristics. However, despite the importance of different PFT for community assembly and ecosystem functioning, research has mainly focused on vascular plants. Here, we established a set of observational plots in two contrasting habitats in northeastern Siberia in order to assess the relationship between species diversity and community composition with soil variables, as well as the relationship between vegetation cover and species diversity for two PFT (nonvascular and vascular). We found that nonvascular species diversity decreased with soil acidity and moisture and, to a lesser extent, with soil temperature and active layer thickness. In contrast, no such correlation was found for vascular species diversity. Differences in community composition were found mainly along soil acidity and moisture gradients. However, the proportion of variation in composition explained by the measured soil variables was much lower for nonvascular than for vascular species when considering the PFT separately. We also found different relationships between vegetation cover and species diversity according the PFT and habitat. In support of niche differentiation theory, species diversity and community composition were related to edaphic factors. The distinct relationships found for nonvascular and vascular species suggest the importance of considering multiple PFT when assessing species diversity and composition and their interaction with edaphic factors. Synthesis: Identifying vegetation responses to edaphic factors is a first step toward a better understanding of vegetation–soil feedbacks under climate change. Our results suggest that incorporating differential responses of PFT is important for predicting vegetation shifts, primary productivity, and in turn, ecosystem functioning in a changing climate.     

Predation has a greater impact in less productive environments: variation in roe deer, Capreolus capreolus, population density across Europe

Aim We aimed to describe the large‐scale patterns in population density of roe deer Caprelous capreolus in Europe and to determine the factors shaping variation in their abundance. Location Europe. Methods We collated data on roe deer population density from 72 localities spanning 25° latitude and 48° longitude and analysed them in relation to a range of environmental factors: vegetation productivity (approximated by the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation) and forest cover as proxies for food supply, winter severity, summer drought and presence or absence of large predators (wolf, Canis lupus, and Eurasian lynx, Lynx lynx), hunter harvest and a competitor (red deer, Cervus elaphus). Results Roe deer abundance increased with the overall productivity of vegetation cover and with lower forest cover (sparser forest cover means that a higher proportion of overall plant productivity is allocated to ground vegetation and thus is available to roe deer). The effect of large predators was relatively weak in highly productive environments and in regions with mild climate, but increased markedly in regions with low vegetation productivity and harsh winters. Other potentially limiting factors (hunting, summer drought and competition with red deer) had no significant impact on roe deer abundance. Main conclusions The analyses revealed the combined effect of bottom‐up and top‐down control on roe deer: on a biogeographical scale, population abundance of roe deer has been shaped by food‐related factors and large predators, with additive effects of the two species of predators. The results have implications for management of roe deer populations in Europe. First, an increase in roe deer abundance can be expected as environmental productivity increases due to climate change. Secondly, recovery plans for large carnivores should take environmental productivity and winter severity into account when predicting their impact on prey.     

Effects of environmental warming and drought on size‐structured soil food webs

Soil systems maintain important ecosystem processes crucial for plant life and food production. Especially agricultural systems are strongly affected by climate change due to low vegetation cover associated with high temperatures and drought. Nevertheless, the response of soil systems to climate change is little explored. We used microcosms with a simplified soil community to address effects of climate change using independent temperature and dryness gradients and addressed their effects on top–down control and litter decomposition. The community consisted of maize litter as a basal resource, fungi, springtails and as top predators mites and centipedes. As the body‐size structure is of high importance for communities, we included differently‐sized springtails and predator species. After seven weeks, the experiment was terminated, and the impact of climate change on direct feeding interactions and indirect effects across trophic levels was analysed. With increasing temperature and dryness, consumption rates increased, thereby amplifying the negative influence of consumer populations on their resources. Hence, these climate‐change variables increased the top–down control of 1) predators (mainly mites) on springtails and 2) fungi on litter decomposition. In addition, we found that the climate‐change variables strengthened trophic cascades from predators on fungi whose density was thus increasingly decoupled from top–down control by their springtail consumers. Their increased decomposition rates are of high importance for carbon cycling and may result in accelerated nutrient turnover. In conclusion, our results suggest that climate change may strongly influence the structure and functioning of soil systems by strengthening consumption rates and trophic cascades, which will have far reaching consequences for the nutrient turnover and productivity of agricultural ecosystems.     

Predicting Ecosystem Resilience to Fire from Tree Ring Analysis in Black Spruce Forests

Climate change has increased the occurrence, severity, and impact of disturbances on forested ecosystems worldwide, resulting in a need to identify factors that contribute to an ecosystem’s resilience or capacity to recover from disturbance. Forest resilience to disturbance may decline with climate change if mature trees are able to persist under stressful environmental conditions that do not permit successful recruitment and survival after a disturbance. In this study, we used the change in proportional representation of black spruce pre- to post-fire as a surrogate for resilience. We explored links between patterns of resilience and tree ring signals of drought stress across topographic moisture gradients within the boreal forest. We sampled 72 recently (2004) burned stands of black spruce in interior Alaska (USA); the relative dominance of black spruce after fire ranged from almost no change (high resilience) to a 90% decrease (low resilience). Variance partitioning analysis indicated that resilience was related to site environmental characteristics and climate–growth responses, with no unique contribution of pre-fire stand composition. The largest shifts in post-fire species composition occurred in sites that experienced the compounding effects of pre-fire drought stress and shallow post-fire organic layer thickness. These sites were generally located at warmer and drier landscape positions, suggesting they are less resilient to disturbance than sites in cool and moist locations. Climate–growth responses can provide an estimate of stand environmental stress to climate change and as such are a valuable tool for predicting landscape variations in forest ecosystem resilience.     

Do biotic interactions modulate ecosystem functioning along stress gradients? Insights from semi-arid plant and biological soil crust communities

Climate change will exacerbate the degree of abiotic stress experienced by semi-arid ecosystems. While abiotic stress profoundly affects biotic interactions, their potential role as modulators of ecosystem responses to climate change is largely unknown. Using plants and biological soil crusts, we tested the relative importance of facilitative–competitive interactions and other community attributes (cover, species richness and species evenness) as drivers of ecosystem functioning along stress gradients in semi-arid Mediterranean ecosystems. Biotic interactions shifted from facilitation to competition along stress gradients driven by water availability and temperature. These changes were, however, dependent on the spatial scale and the community considered. We found little evidence to suggest that biotic interactions are a major direct influence upon indicators of ecosystem functioning (soil respiration, organic carbon, water-holding capacity, compaction and the activity of enzymes related to the carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycles) along stress gradients. However, attributes such as cover and species richness showed a direct effect on ecosystem functioning. Our results do not agree with predictions emphasizing that the importance of plant–plant interactions will be increased under climate change in dry environments, and indicate that reductions in the cover of plant and biological soil crust communities will negatively impact ecosystems under future climatic conditions.     

Multiple stressor effects on coral reef ecosystems

Global climate change has profound implications on species distributions and ecosystem functioning. In the coastal zone, ecological responses may be driven by various biogeochemical and physical environmental factors. Synergistic interactions can occur when the combined effects of stressors exceed their individual effects. The Red Sea, characterized by strong gradients in temperature, salinity, and nutrients along the latitudinal axis provides a unique opportunity to study ecological responses over a range of these environmental variables. Using multiple linear regression models integrating in situ, satellite and oceanographic data, we investigated the response of coral reef taxa to local stressors and recent climate variability. Taxa and functional groups responded to a combination of climate (temperature, salinity, air‐sea heat fluxes, irradiance, wind speed), fishing pressure and biogeochemical (chlorophyll a and nutrients ‐ phosphate, nitrate, nitrite) factors. The regression model for each species showed interactive effects of climate, fishing pressure and nutrient variables. The nature of the effects (antagonistic or synergistic) was dependent on the species and stressor pair. Variables consistently associated with the highest number of synergistic interactions included heat flux terms, temperature, and wind speed followed by fishing pressure. Hard corals and coralline algae abundance were sensitive to changing environmental conditions where synergistic interactions decreased their percentage cover. These synergistic interactions suggest that the negative effects of fishing pressure and eutrophication may exacerbate the impact of climate change on corals. A high number of interactions were also recorded for algae, however for this group, synergistic interactions increased algal abundance. This study is unique in applying regression analysis to multiple environmental variables simultaneously to understand stressor interactions in the field. The observed responses have important implications for understanding climate change impacts on marine ecosystems and whether managing local stressors, such as nutrient enrichment and fishing activities, may help mitigate global drivers of change.     

Community structure and composition in response to climate change in a temperate steppe

Climate change would have profound influences on community structure and composition, and subsequently has impacts on ecosystem functioning and feedback to climate change. A field experiment with increased temperature and precipitation was conducted to examine effects of experimental warming, increased precipitation and their interactions on community structure and composition in a temperate steppe in northern China since April 2005. Increased precipitation significantly stimulated species richness and coverage of plant community. In contrast, experimental warming markedly reduced species richness of grasses and community coverage. Species richness was positively dependent upon soil moisture (SM) across all treatments and years. Redundancy analysis (RDA) illustrated that SM dominated the response of community composition to climate change at the individual level, suggesting indirect effects of climate change on plant community composition via altering water availability. In addition, species interaction also mediated the responses of functional group coverage to increased precipitation and temperature. Our observations revealed that both abiotic (soil water availability) and biotic (interspecific interactions) factors play important roles in regulating plant community structure and composition in response to climate change in the semiarid steppe. Therefore these factors should be incorporated in model predicting terrestrial vegetation dynamics under climate change.     

Management,winter climate and plant–soil feedbacks on ski slopes: a synthesis

Owing to the increasing popularity of skiing and the upslope movement of the snow reliability line in mountain regions, more and more alpine environments are being turned into skiing areas, with strong impacts on ecosystem functions and biodiversity. Creation and management of ski slopes cause physical disturbance to soil and vegetation, while (artificial) snow supplements affect soil structure, chemistry, moisture and temperature regimes as well as shifts in snow season and growing season length. Vegetation–soil feedbacks may influence the outcome of these interactive effects on soil and vegetation, with possible consequences for soil erosion. Moreover, climate warming will lead to changing snow cover and duration, which will interact with ski slope management effects on soil and vegetation and its feedbacks. Based on a conceptual framework we review the main elements of these interactive effects on soil and vegetation on new and established ski slopes. We also set a research agenda with specific studies that could further advance our understanding of interacting ski slope management, winter climate, vegetation–soil feedbacks and ecosystem functioning. In such new investigations, alpine climate change ecology can probably learn much from the “experimental” disturbance and snow manipulations on ski slopes and vice versa.     

The invasion of plant communities following extreme weather events under ambient and elevated temperature

Although the problem of plant invasions is expected to increase with climate change, there is as yet little experimental evidence, in particular, for the effects of extreme weather events. We established communities of European meadow species, which were subjected to warming and extreme event (drought and deluge) treatments in a factorial design at an experimental garden in Zurich, Switzerland. Phylogenetically matched pairs of native and alien species (Bromus erectus, B. inermis, Trifolium pratense, T. hybridum, Lactuca serriola, and Conyza canadensis) were introduced into the communities to test if invader performance is favored by warming and extreme events, and if alien invaders perform better than native colonizers. With a warming of on average 0.3?°C, a higher cover of native plant communities was observed, while drought decreased cover in the short-term and lowered biomass. Germination, survival, and growth of the introduced species were lower under elevated temperature. Survival of all pairs and growth of Trifolium was greater in drought pots, while deluge had no effect. While the alien species showed a faster rate of increase in the number of leaves, mortality of alien species was greater than of native species. Overall, the performance of the focal species varied much more among taxonomic groups than native/alien provenances. The results suggest that with climate change, different types of extreme events will differ in the severity of their effects on native plant communities. Meanwhile, the effects of climate change on plant invasions are more likely to operate indirectly through the impacts on native vegetation.     

Impacts of climate variability on tree demography in second growth tropical forests: the importance of regional context for predicting successional trajectories

Naturally regenerating and restored second growth forests account for over 70% of tropical forest cover and provide key ecosystem services. Understanding climate change impacts on successional trajectories of these ecosystems is critical for developing effective large‐scale forest landscape restoration (FLR) programs. Differences in environmental conditions, species composition, dynamics, and landscape context from old growth forests may exacerbate climate impacts on second growth stands. We compile data from 112 studies on the effects of natural climate variability, including warming, droughts, fires, and cyclonic storms, on demography and dynamics of second growth forest trees and identify variation in forest responses across biomes, regions, and landscapes. Across studies, drought decreases tree growth, survival, and recruitment, particularly during early succession, but the effects of temperature remain unexplored. Shifts in the frequency and severity of disturbance alter successional trajectories and increase the extent of second growth forests. Vulnerability to climate extremes is generally inversely related to long‐term exposure, which varies with historical climate and biogeography. The majority of studies, however, have been conducted in the Neotropics hindering generalization. Effects of fire and cyclonic storms often lead to positive feedbacks, increasing vulnerability to climate extremes and subsequent disturbance. Fragmentation increases forests’ vulnerability to fires, wind, and drought, while land use and other human activities influence the frequency and intensity of fire, potentially retarding succession. Comparative studies of climate effects on tropical forest succession across biogeographic regions are required to forecast the response of tropical forest landscapes to future climates and to implement effective FLR policies and programs in these landscapes.     

Incorporating the effects of changes in vegetation functioning and CO2 on water availability in plant habitat models

The direct effects of CO2 level changes on plant water availability are usually ignored in plant habitat models. We compare traditional proxies for water availability with changes in soil water (fAWC) predicted by a process-based ecosystem model, which simulates changes in vegetation structure and functioning, including CO2 physiological effects. We modelled current and future habitats of 108 European tree species using ensemble forecasting, comprising six habitat models, two model evaluation methods and two climate change scenarios. The fAWC models' projections are generally more conservative. Potential habitats shrink significantly less for boreo-alpine and alpine species. Changes in vegetation functioning and CO2 on plant water availability should therefore be taken into account in plant habitat change projections.     

Small-scale plant species distribution in snowbeds and its sensitivity to climate change

Alpine snowbeds are characterized by a long-lasting snow cover and low soil temperature during the growing season. Both these key abiotic factors controlling plant life in snowbeds are sensitive to anthropogenic climate change and will alter the environmental conditions in snowbeds to a considerable extent until the end of this century. In order to name winners and losers of climate change among the plant species inhabiting snowbeds, we analyzed the small-scale species distribution along the snowmelt and soil temperature gradients within alpine snowbeds in the Swiss Alps. The results show that the date of snowmelt and soil temperature were relevant abiotic factors for small-scale vegetation patterns within alpine snowbed communities. Species richness in snowbeds was reduced to about 50% along the environmental gradients towards later snowmelt date or lower daily maximum temperature. Furthermore, the occurrence pattern of the species along the snowmelt gradient allowed the establishment of five species categories with different predictions of their distribution in a warmer world. The dominants increased their relative cover with later snowmelt date and will, therefore, lose abundance due to climate change, but resist complete disappearance from the snowbeds. The indifferents and the transients increased in species number and relative cover with higher temperature and will profit from climate warming. The snowbed specialists will be the most suffering species due to the loss of their habitats as a consequence of earlier snowmelt dates in the future and will be replaced by the avoiders of late-snowmelt sites. These forthcoming profiteers will take advantage from an increasing number of suitable habitats due to an earlier start of the growing season and increased temperature. Therefore, the characteristic snowbed vegetation will change to a vegetation unit dominated by alpine grassland species. The study highlights the vulnerability of the established snowbed vegetation to climate change and requires further studies particularly about the role of biotic interactions in the predicted invasion and replacement process.     

Climate and vegetation structure determine plant diversity in Quercus ilex woodlands along an aridity and human-use gradient in Northern Algeria

We studied the influence of environmental factors relating to climate, soil and vegetation cover on total species richness, species richness of different life-forms and species composition of plant communities occurring in Quercus ilex woodlands, across a 450-km long transect in Northern Algeria constituting a gradient of aridity and human use. We sampled vegetation and collected environmental data in 81 10 m × 10 m plots in five zones representing the largest Q. ilex woodlands throughout the study area, analysing them within an a priori hypothesis framework with the use of Path Analysis. Changes in plant diversity were mainly influenced by environmental factors related to precipitation and temperature regimes, as well as by total plant cover. In particular, changes in species composition were determined by factors associated with the temperature regime through their influence on both woody and annual herbaceous plant richness, and by factors related to the precipitation regime through their influence on perennial herbaceous plant richness, likely due to the differential tolerances of these functional groups to cold and water stress. Our results emphasize the importance of differences in environmental adaptability of the most important life-forms with regard to explaining compositional change (beta diversity) along aridity gradients, and the mediator role of total plant cover in relation to the effects of soil conditions on plant diversity.     

Stress from cold and drought as drivers of functional trait spectra in North American angiosperm tree assemblages

Understanding how environmental change alters the composition of plant assemblages, and how this in turn affects ecosystem functioning is a major challenge in the face of global climate change. Assuming that values of plant traits express species adaptations to the environment, the trait‐based approach is a promising way to achieve this goal. Nevertheless, how functional traits are related to species’ environmental tolerances and how trait spectra respond to broad‐scale environmental gradients remains largely unexplored. Here, we identify the main trait spectra for US angiosperm trees by testing hypotheses for the relationships between functional traits and species’ environmental tolerances to environmental stresses, as well as quantifying the environmental drivers of assemblage means and variances of these traits. We analyzed >74,000 community assemblages from the US Forest Inventory and Analysis using 12 functional traits, five traits expressing species’ environmental tolerances and 10 environmental variables. Results indicated that leaf traits, dispersal traits, and traits related to stem hydraulics were related to cold or drought tolerance, and their assemblage means were best explained by minimum temperatures. Assemblage means of traits related to shade tolerance (tree growth rate, leaf phosphorus content, and bark thickness) were best explained by aridity index. Surprisingly, aridity index, rather than minimum temperature, was the best predictors of assemblage variances of most traits, although these relationships were variable and weak overall. We conclude that temperature is likely to be the most important driver of functional community structure of North American angiosperm trees by selecting for optimum strategies along the cold and drought stress trade‐off. In turn, water availability primarily affects traits related to shade tolerance through its effect on forest canopy structure and vegetation openness.     

Rainfall‐Tuned Management Facilitates Dry Forest Recovery

Regeneration of original dry forests and shrublands in degraded arid and semiarid ecosystems can be a slow and difficult process. It has been hypothesized that restoration efforts during periods of increased water availability may potentially trigger shifts back to a high vegetation cover depending on several environmental factors that govern the response of vegetation to rainfall. Tuning restoration efforts to climate variability will likely become increasingly important under climate change conditions. The experiences evaluated here are a pioneering effort to reforest arid South American forests. We used a combination of field monitoring and remote sensing images to evaluate the long‐term effects of seeding and herbivore control in local reforestation projects tuned to the forecasted rainy El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of 1991/1992 and 1997/1998 in North Peru and to assess the regional response of vegetation to these rainy events at a regional scale. We found that managing seed availability in combination with seedling protection from herbivores only yielded persistent higher vegetation cover when implemented on sites without calcareous layers and relatively high water availability determined by the surrounding topography. Our study shows that management tuned to forecasted rainfall events is able to trigger a long‐lasting shift toward higher vegetation cover. We provide a better insight in how environmental factors shape vegetation response to increased rainfall and discuss the implications for ecosystem resilience and restoration.     

Effects of Warming, Summer Drought, and CO2 Enrichment on Aboveground Biomass Production, Flowering Phenology, and Community Structure in an Upland Grassland Ecosystem

Future climate scenarios predict simultaneous changes in environmental conditions, but the impacts of multiple climate change drivers on ecosystem structure and function remain unclear. We used a novel experimental approach to examine the responses of an upland grassland ecosystem to the 2080 climate scenario predicted for the study area (3.5°C temperature increase, 20% reduction in summer precipitation, atmospheric CO₂ levels of 600 ppm) over three growing seasons. We also assessed whether patterns of grassland response to a combination of climate change treatments could be forecast by ecosystem responses to single climate change drivers. Effects of climate change on aboveground production showed considerable seasonal and interannual variation; April biomass increased in response to both warming and the simultaneous application of warming, summer drought, and CO₂ enrichment, whereas October biomass responses were either non-significant or negative depending on the year. Negative impacts of summer drought on production were only observed in combination with a below-average rainfall regime, and showed lagged effects on spring biomass. Elevated CO₂ had no significant effect on aboveground biomass during this study. Both warming and the 2080 climate change scenario were associated with a significant advance in flowering time for the dominant grass species studied. However, flowering phenology showed no significant response to either summer drought or elevated CO₂. Species diversity and equitability showed no response to climate change treatments throughout this study. Overall, our data suggest that single-factor warming experiments may provide valuable information for projections of future ecosystem changes in cool temperate grasslands.     

Precipitation controls seed bank size and its role in alpine meadow community regeneration with increasing altitude

The Tibetan Plateau has undergone significant climate warming in recent decades, and precipitation has also become increasingly variable. Much research has explored the effects of climate change on vegetation on this plateau. As potential vegetation buried in the soil, the soil seed bank is an important resource for ecosystem restoration and resilience. However, almost no studies have explored the effects of climate change on seed banks and the mechanisms of these effects. We used an altitudinal gradient to represent a decrease in temperature and collected soil seed bank samples from 27 alpine meadows (3,158–4,002 m) along this gradient. A structural equation model was used to explore the direct effects of mean annual precipitation (MAP) and mean annual temperature (MAT) on the soil seed bank and their indirect effects through aboveground vegetation and soil environmental factors. The species richness and abundance of the aboveground vegetation varied little along the altitudinal gradient, while the species richness and density of the seed bank decreased. The similarity between the seed bank and aboveground vegetation decreased with altitude; specifically, it decreased with MAP but was not related to MAT. The increase in MAP with increasing altitude directly decreased the species richness and density of the seed bank, while the increase in MAP and decrease in MAT with increasing altitude indirectly increased and decreased the species richness of the seed bank, respectively, by directly increasing and decreasing the species richness of the plant community. The size of the soil seed bank declined with increasing altitude. Increases in precipitation directly decreased the species richness and density and indirectly decreased the species richness of the seed bank with increasing elevation. The role of the seed bank in aboveground plant community regeneration decreases with increasing altitude, and this process is controlled by precipitation but not temperature.     

Anticipating the spatio‐temporal response of plant diversity and vegetation structure to climate and land use change in a protected area

Vegetation is a key driver of ecosystem functioning (e.g. productivity and stability) and of the maintenance of biodiversity (e.g. creating habitats for other species groups). While vegetation sensitivity to climate change has been widely investigated, its spatio‐temporally response to the dual effects of land management and climate change has been ignored at landscape scale. Here we use a dynamic vegetation model called FATE‐HD, which describes the dominant vegetation dynamics and associated functional diversity, in order to anticipate vegetation response to climate and land‐use changes in both short and long‐term perspectives. Using three contrasted management scenarios for the Ecrins National Park (French Alps) developed in collaboration with the park managers, and one regional climate change scenario, we tracked the dynamics of vegetation structure (forest expansion) and functional diversity over 100 yr of climate change and a further 400 additional years of stabilization. As expected, we observed a slow upward shift in forest cover distribution, which appears to be severely impacted by pasture management (i.e. maintenance or abandonment). The time lag before observing changes in vegetation cover was the result of demographic and seed dispersal processes. However, plant diversity response to environmental changes was rapid. After land abandonment, local diversity increased and spatial turnover was reduced, whereas local diversity decreased following land use intensification. Interestingly, in the long term, as both climate and management scenarios interacted, the regional diversity declined. Our innovative spatio‐temporally explicit framework demonstrates that the vegetation may have contrasting responses to changes in the short and the long term. Moreover, climate and land‐abandonment interact extensively leading to a decrease in both regional diversity and turnover in the long term. Based on our simulations we therefore suggest a continuing moderate intensity pasturing to maintain high levels of plant diversity in this system.     

Climate change alters plant biogeography in Mediterranean prairies along the West Coast,USA

Projected changes in climate are expected to have widespread effects on plant community composition and diversity in coming decades. However, multisite, multifactor climate manipulation studies that have examined whether observed responses are regionally consistent and whether multiple climate perturbations are interdependent are rare. Using such an experiment, we quantified how warming and increased precipitation intensity affect the relative dominance of plant functional groups and diversity across a broad climate gradient of Mediterranean prairies. We implemented a fully factorial climate manipulation of warming (+2.5–3.0 °C) and increased wet‐season precipitation (+20%) at three sites across a 520‐km latitudinal gradient in the Pacific Northwest, USA. After seeding with a nearly identical mix of native species at all sites, we measured plant community composition (i.e., cover, richness, and diversity), temperature, and soil moisture for 3 years. Warming and the resultant drying of soils altered plant community composition, decreased native diversity, and increased total cover, with warmed northern communities becoming more similar to communities further south. In particular, after two full years of warming, annual cover increased and forb cover decreased at all sites mirroring the natural biogeographic pattern. This suggests that the extant climate gradient of increasing heat and drought severity is responsible for a large part of the observed biogeographic pattern of increasing annual invasion in US West Coast prairies as one moves further south. Additional precipitation during the rainy season did little to relieve drought stress and had minimal effects on plant community composition. Our results suggest that the projected increase in drought severity (i.e., hotter, drier summers) in Pacific Northwest prairies may lead to increased invasion by annuals and a loss of forbs, similar to what has been observed in central and southern California, resulting in novel species assemblages and shifts in functional composition, which in turn may alter ecosystem functions.