Incorporating the effects of changes in vegetation functioning and CO2 on water availability in plant habitat models |
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Authors: | Rickebusch Sophie Thuiller Wilfried Hickler Thomas Arau Jo Miguel B Sykes Martin T Schweiger Oliver Lafourcade Bruno |
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Institution: | Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, UMR-CNRS 5553, Université Joseph Fourier, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France. |
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Abstract: | The direct effects of CO2 level changes on plant water availability are usually ignored in plant habitat models. We compare traditional proxies for water availability with changes in soil water (fAWC) predicted by a process-based ecosystem model, which simulates changes in vegetation structure and functioning, including CO2 physiological effects. We modelled current and future habitats of 108 European tree species using ensemble forecasting, comprising six habitat models, two model evaluation methods and two climate change scenarios. The fAWC models' projections are generally more conservative. Potential habitats shrink significantly less for boreo-alpine and alpine species. Changes in vegetation functioning and CO2 on plant water availability should therefore be taken into account in plant habitat change projections. |
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Keywords: | soil water content BIOMOD habitat models CO2 effect climate change ensemble forecasting |
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