Comparing growth patterns among field populations of cereal aphids reveals factors limiting their maximum abundance

Cereal stands in central Europe are commonly infested with three species of aphids that may become serious pests. With increasing abundance, the proportion of a particular species in the total aphid population may remain constant, suggesting a density-independent exponential growth, or the proportion can change, suggesting density-dependent constraints on growth. The constraints that affect particular species, and thus their relative abundance, were studied. The proportionality between maximum abundances of the cereal aphids was studied using a 10-year census of the numbers of aphids infesting 268 winter wheat plots. For two species their abundance on leaves and ears was compared. With increasing aphid density the maximum abundance of Rhopalosiphum padi (Linnaeus) remained proportional, but not that of Sitobion avenae (Fabricius), which was constrained by the smaller surface area of ears compared to leaves. There was no evidence of inter-specific competition. Maximum abundance of R. padi and Metopolophium dirhodum (Walker) on leaves did not change proportionally as the proportion of M. dirhodum decreased with increasing overall aphid density. This decrease was probably caused by the restricted distribution of M. dirhodum, which is confined to leaves, where space is limiting. No change in proportion between populations was detected when the average densities were below 0.54 aphids per leaf or ear. Non-proportional relationships between aphid populations appeared to be due to spatial constraints, acting upon the more abundant population. Detecting the limitation of population growth can help with the assessment of when density-independent exponential growth is limited by density-dependent factors. This information may help in the development of models of cereal aphid population dynamics.     

The cost of habitat selection in prairie voles: an empirical assessment using isodar analysis

The ideal free distribution assumes that habitat selection is without cost and predicts that fitness should be equal in different habitats. If habitat selection has a cost, then individuals should only move to another habitat when potential fitness in the new habitat exceeds that in the source habitat by an amount greater than the cost of habitat selection. We used isodar techniques to assess the cost of habitat selection. In an experimental landscape, we monitored density, movement, and reproductive success of adult female prairie voles, Microtus ochrogaster, in adjacent paired habitats with low and high cover. We tested the following hypotheses: (1) adult female prairie voles exhibited density-dependent habitat selection; (2) the cost of habitat selection was density-independent. Habitat quality based on population density and fitness of adult females was higher in high cover habitats. Net movement was from low cover to high cover habitats. The results indicated that adult female prairie voles exhibited density-dependent habitat selection. Furthermore, there was a significant cost of habitat selection, and the cost was density-independent.     

Habitat Features Predict Carrying Capacity of a Recovering Marine Carnivore

The recovery of large carnivore species from over-exploitation can have socioecological effects; thus, reliable estimates of potential abundance and distribution represent a valuable tool for developing management objectives and recovery criteria. For sea otters (Enhydra lutris), as with many apex predators, equilibrium abundance is not constant across space but rather varies as a function of local habitat quality and resource dynamics, thereby complicating the extrapolation of carrying capacity (K) from one location to another. To overcome this challenge, we developed a state-space model of density-dependent population dynamics in southern sea otters (E. l. nereis), in which K is estimated as a continuously varying function of a suite of physical, biotic, and oceanographic variables, all described at fine spatial scales. We used a theta-logistic process model that included environmental stochasticity and allowed for density-independent mortality associated with shark bites. We used Bayesian methods to fit the model to time series of survey data, augmented by auxiliary data on cause of death in stranded otters. Our model results showed that the expected density at K for a given area can be predicted based on local bathymetry (depth and distance from shore), benthic substrate composition (rocky vs. soft sediments), presence of kelp canopy, net primary productivity, and whether or not the area is inside an estuary. In addition to density-dependent reductions in growth, increased levels of shark-bite mortality over the last decade have also acted to limit population expansion. We used the functional relationships between habitat variables and equilibrium density to project estimated values of K for the entire historical range of southern sea otters in California, USA, accounting for spatial variation in habitat quality. Our results suggest that California could eventually support 17,226 otters (95% CrI = 9,739–30,087). We also used the fitted model to compute candidate values of optimal sustainable population abundance (OSP) for all of California and for regions within California. We employed a simulation-based approach to determine the abundance associated with the maximum net productivity level (MNPL) and propose that the upper quartile of the distribution of MNPL estimates (accounting for parameter uncertainty) represents an appropriate threshold value for OSP. Based on this analysis, we suggest a candidate value for OSP (for all of California) of 10,236, which represents 59.4% of projected K. © 2021 The Authors. The Journal of Wildlife Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Wildlife Society.     

Population fluctuations, regulation and limitation in stream-living brown trout

Determining causes of variation in population size and identifying factors responsible for fluctuations in species abundance are crucial questions both in theoretical and applied ecology. Based on the analysis of abundance time series, many studies have concluded that population dynamics of the stream-living brown trout ( Salmo trutta L.) are mainly driven by year-to-year variation in the discharge level during emergence. Endogenous regulatory processes have often been considered as weak explanations for these fluctuations. This led some authors to consider that brown trout was able to persist in time with no operation of density-dependent processes. Using a model of population dynamics, we studied the influence of both discharge level during emergence and density-dependent regulatory processes on population limitation and fluctuations. We show that density-dependent and density-independent processes can act together on population density and stability at equilibrium (limitation process). We also show that the effects of internal feedbacks regulating population may often be invisible when analyzing abundance fluctuations at the interannual scale. Our results question the accuracy of studies based on the analysis of interannual fluctuations in abundance to identify processes driving population density at equilibrium.     

Multiple sources of evidence for density dependence in the endangered Hawaiian stilt (Himantopus mexicanus knudseni)

Hawaiian stilts (Himantopus mexicanus knudseni) are an endangered subspecies of the Black-necked stilt endemic to the Hawaiian Islands. Despite long-term study, the main drivers of Hawaiian stilt population dynamics are poorly understood. We tested for density dependence using two sources of evidence: a 30-year time series of annual estimated range-wide abundance, and two 15+ year time series of reproductive success. Using separate methods with independent data, sources allowed us to make up for the potentially positive bias of one approach with the more conservative nature of the second. We compared nonlinear density-dependent and density-independent population model fits to our time-series data, using both frequentist and Bayesian state-space approaches. Across both approaches, density-dependent models best fit observed population dynamics, with lower AICc and cross-validation statistics compared to density-independent models. Among density-dependent models, a conditional model in which density-independent dynamics occur below a population size threshold (~850–1,000 birds), and then density-dependent dynamics occur above that threshold, performed best across Bayesian and frequentist model comparisons, with the Ricker model ranked next or equivalently. Our analysis of reproduction data revealed a strong negative effect of local adult density on nest success (proportion of nests hatching at least one chick) at Kealia National Wildlife Refuge on Maui, where few alternative breeding habitats are available, but no such effect at another site where many nearby alternative wetlands are available. These congruent results across independent datasets and analytical approaches support the hypothesis that Hawaiian stilts exhibit density dependence across their range.     

Finite metapopulation models with density-dependent migration and stochastic local dynamics

The effects of small density-dependent migration on the dynamics of a metapopulation are studied in a model with stochastic local dynamics. We use a diffusion approximation to study how changes in the migration rate and habitat occupancy affect the rates of local colonization and extinction. If the emigration rate increases or if the immigration rate decreases with local population size, a positive expected rate of change in habitat occupancy is found for a greater range of habitat occupancies than when the migration is density-independent. In contrast, the reverse patterns of density dependence in respective emigration and immigration reduce the range of habitat occupancies where the metapopulation will be viable. This occurs because density-dependent migration strongly influences both the establishment and rescue effects in the local dynamics of metapopulations.     

Spatial variation of species diversity across scales in an old-growth temperate forest of China

Species richness and abundance are the two most important diversity variables. Species abundance is additive when aggregated across spatial scale, whereas species richness is non-additive. This study analyzes the effect of spatial scale and site on species abundance and richness in a 25-ha temperate forest plot in the Changbai Mountains, northeastern China. The result shows that species abundance and richness are not only dependent on spatial scales, but also dependent on site. Species abundance responds linearly to changes of spatial scale with no intersection in different sites of the study area. However, although species richness also increases with the increase of spatial scale, there are some intersections for the different sites, suggesting that a species-rich site does not always have a high value if the spatial scale is changed. In all, with respect to additive variables, it is relatively easy to extrapolate them from one spatial scale to another spatial scale, as they and the spatial scale usually form a linear relationship. In contrast, non-additive variables are difficult to extrapolate across spatial scales, because they often respond nonlinearly to spatial scale changes. In order to extrapolate these non-additive variables across spatial scales, it is necessary to estimate the relationships between them and spatial scales. As a result, extrapolation of information among spatial scales may be possible, but very difficult, especially for non-additive variables. Because the 25-ha Changbai plot is very small compared to the extent of the world temperate forests, and the vegetation is a relatively uniform type, more such studies in other ecosystems are needed before theories and generalization about scaling effects can be formulated.     

Relative roles of density-dependent and density-independent factors in population dynamics of British deer

It has become increasingly clear that both density-dependent and density-independent factors may influence the dynamics of mammalian populations; it remains more difficult, however, to determine which factors may play the more significant role in influencing population number in any particular case. In this paper we review published and unpublished data in an analysis of the various factors affecting population size and trend in three European species of deer: Red Deer ( Cervus elaphus ), Fallow Deer ( Dama damd ) and Roe Deer ( Capreolus capreolus). We select these species deliberately because they span a range of body size and reproductive strategy - it seems that different demographic parameters might thus play different roles in the dynamics of the three-which may also be differentially sensitive to the effects of density-dependent and density-independent factors. For each species we examine the available evidence to determine the relative roles and effects of density-dependent feedback mechanisms and density-independent factors such as climate on recruitment and mortality.
Despite differences in bionomic strategy between Red Deer (as essentially a K -strategist) and the more r-selected Roe, few differences emerge between the three species in the relative roles of density-dependent and density-independent factors - or of the stage at the life cycle at which each factor may act. Overall, however, it is clear that variation in density-independent factors, such as climate, appears primarily to affect levels of mortality within a population, while effects of density are particularly marked in relation to changes in recruitment.     

Changes in habitat associations during range expansion: disentangling the effects of climate and residence time

The distributions of many species are not at equilibrium with their environment. This includes spreading non-native species and species undergoing range shifts in response to climate change. The habitat associations of these species may change during range expansion as less favourable climatic conditions at expanding range margins constrain species to use only the most favourable habitats, violating the species distribution model assumption of stationarity. Alternatively, changes in habitat associations could result from density-dependent habitat selection; at range margins, population densities are initially low so species can exhibit density-independent selection of the most favourable habitats, while in the range core, where population densities are higher, species spread into less favourable habitat. We investigate if the habitat preferences of the non-native common waxbill Estrilda astrild changed as they spread in three directions (north, east and south-east) in the Iberian Peninsula. There are different degrees of climatic suitability and colonization speed across range expansion axes, allowing us to separate the effects of climate from residence time. In contrast to previous studies we find a stronger effect of residence time than climate in influencing the prevalence of common waxbills. As well as a strong additive effect of residence time, there were some changes in habitat associations, which were consistent with density-dependent habitat selection. The combination of broader habitat associations and higher prevalence in areas that have been colonised for longer means that species distribution models constructed early in the invasion process are likely to underestimate species’ potential distribution.     

Population variability among three small mammal species in the semiarid Neotropics: the role of density-dependent and density-independent factors

We addressed the role of density-dependent (direct and delayed) and density-independent (precipitation) factors in shaping the dynamics of fluctuating populations of three small mammal species. Using a stepwise regression procedure, we tested the effects of nonlagged population density (log₁₀ N_t-1), lagged population density (log₁₀ N_t-2), and annual precipitation on the per capita rate of population change of Phyllotis darwini, Akodon olivaceus , and Thylamys elegans in two habitat types of a semiarid region of Chile. The most irruptive species ( P. darwini ) showed direct and delayed density-dependent effects in equatorial subpopulation, and only direct density-dependence in polar subpopulation. The per capita rates of population change of A. olivaceus showed direct density-dependent and precipitation effects in both habitats types, while T. elegans showed direct density-dependence and precipitation effects in the equatorial subpopulation but only a marginal effect of direct density-dependence in the polar subpopulation. The presence of delayed density-dependent strongly suggests the importance of biological interactions in shaping the dramatic irruptions exhibited by P. darwini.     

Climate and Demography Dictate the Strength of Predator-Prey Overlap in a Subarctic Marine Ecosystem

There is growing evidence that climate and anthropogenic influences on marine ecosystems are largely manifested by changes in species spatial dynamics. However, less is known about how shifts in species distributions might alter predator-prey overlap and the dynamics of prey populations. We developed a general approach to quantify species spatial overlap and identify the biotic and abiotic variables that dictate the strength of overlap. We used this method to test the hypothesis that population abundance and temperature have a synergistic effect on the spatial overlap of arrowtooth flounder (predator) and juvenile Alaska walleye pollock (prey, age-1) in the eastern Bering Sea. Our analyses indicate that (1) flounder abundance and temperature are key variables dictating the strength of flounder and pollock overlap, (2) changes in the magnitude of overlap may be largely driven by density-dependent habitat selection of flounder, and (3) species overlap is negatively correlated to juvenile pollock recruitment when flounder biomass is high. Overall, our findings suggest that continued increases in flounder abundance coupled with the predicted long-term warming of ocean temperatures could have important implications for the predator-prey dynamics of arrowtooth flounder and juvenile pollock. The approach used in this study is valuable for identifying potential consequences of climate variability and exploitation on species spatial dynamics and interactions in many marine ecosystems.     

Density-dependent dispersal complicates spatial synchrony in tri-trophic food chains

Spatial synchrony can increase extinction risk and undermines metapopulation persistence. Both dispersal and biotic interactions can strongly affect spatial synchrony. Here, we explore the spatial synchrony of a tri-trophic food chain in two patches connected by density-dependent dispersal, namely the strategies of prey evasion (PE) and predator pursuit (PP). The dynamics of the food chain are depicted by both the Hastings–Powell model and the chemostat model, with synchrony measured by the Pearson correlation coefficient. We use the density-independent dispersal in the system as a baseline for comparison. Results show that the density-independent dispersal of a species in the system can promote its dynamic synchrony. Dispersal of intermediate species in the tri-trophic food chain is the strongest synchronizer. In contrast, the density-dependent PP and PE of intermediate species can desynchronize the system. Highly synchronized dynamics emerged when the basal species has a strong PE strategy or when the top species has a moderate PP strategy. Our results reveal the complex relationship between density-dependent dispersal and spatial synchrony in tri-trophic systems.     

Temporal changes in the strength of density-dependent mortality and growth in intertidal barnacles

1. In demographically open marine systems, the extent to which density-dependent processes in the benthic adult phase are required for population persistence is unclear. At one extreme, represented by the recruitment limitation hypothesis, larval supply may be insufficient for the total population size to reach a carrying capacity and density-independent mortality predominates. At the opposite extreme, populations are saturated and density-dependent mortality is sufficiently strong to reshape patterns established at settlement. 2. We examined temporal variation in the way density-independent and density-dependent mortality interact in a typical sessile marine benthic invertebrate, the acorn barnacle Semibalanus balanoides (L.), over a 2-year period. 3. Recruitment was manipulated at two high recruitment sites in north Wales, UK to produce recruit densities covering the range naturally found in this species. Following manipulation, fixed quadrats were monitored using digital photography and temporal changes in mortality and growth rate were examined. 4. Over a 2-year period there was a clear, spatially consistent, over-compensatory relationship between the density of recruits and adult abundance indicating strong density-dependent mortality. The strength of density dependence intensified with increasing recruitment. 5. Density-dependent mortality did not operate consistently over the study period. It only operated in the early part of the benthic phase, but the pattern of adult abundance generated was maintained throughout the whole 2-year period. Thus, early life-history processes dictated adult population abundance and dynamics. 6. Examination of the natural recruitment regime in the area of study indicated that both positive and negative effects of recruitment will occur over scales varying from kilometres to metres.     

Using abundance and habitat variables to identify high conservation value areas for threatened mammals

The present study used abundance and habitat variables to design High Conservation Value Forests for wildlife protection. We considered great apes (Gorilla gorilla gorilla and Pan troglodytes troglodytes) as model species, and we used nest surveys, dietary analysis and botanical inventories to evaluate whether the traditional methods that use abundance data alone were consistent with the survival of the species. We assumed that setting a local priority area for animal conservation can be made possible if at least one variable (abundance or habitat variables) is spatially clustered and that the final decision for a species may depend on the pattern of spatial association between abundance, nesting habitat and feeding habitat. We used Kernel Density Estimation to evaluate the spatial pattern of each biological variable. The results indicate that all three variables were spatially clustered for both gorillas and chimpanzees. The abundance variables of both animal species were spatially correlated to their preferred nesting habitat variables. But while the chimpanzee feeding habitat variable was spatially correlated to the abundance and nesting habitat variables, the same pattern was not observed for gorillas. We then proposed different methods to be considered to design local priority areas for the conservation of each great ape species. Alone, the abundance variable does not successfully represent the spatial distribution of major biological requirements for the survival of wildlife species; we, therefore, recommend the integration of the spatial distribution of their food resources to overcome the mismatch caused by the existence of a biological interaction between congeneric species.     

The effects of density-dependent offspring mortality on the synchrony of reproduction

Mortality rates often depend on the size of a population. Using ideal free theory to model the optimal timing of reproduction in model populations, I considered how the specific relationship between density-dependent offspring mortality and population size affects the optimal temporal distribution of reproduction. The results suggest that the specific form of the relationship between density-dependent mortality and the number of offspring produced determines the degree to which reproduction within a population is synchronous. Specifically, reproductive synchrony decreases as density-dependent mortality becomes increasingly inversely related to the number of offspring produced and is highest when density-dependent mortality is directly density-dependent. These findings support the suggestion that predation pressure selects for greater reproductive synchrony in species where mortality is directly density-dependent, but does not affect the timing of reproduction in species with density-independent rates of mortality. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Population regulation of vendace (Coregonus albula) in Lake Pyhäjärvi, southwest Finland

Previous time series analysis on vendace population dynamics in Lake Pyhäjärvi, 1971–1990, revealed a 2-year cycle in year-class strength, implying powerful density-dependent regulation. Here we have extended this analysis by using multiple regression models to test whether the recruitment series is influenced by density-independent factors. We chose population size with a lag of 1 year as the density-dependent factor; the density-independent factors were the summer water temperature with a lag of 2 years (temperature sum for June, July and August, indicating the year-class strength of predators) and the temperature-derived length of the larval period of vendace. For the years 1972–1990 the coefficient of determination ( r ²) of this regression model was 0·77. We suggest that the basic mechanism producing a persistent 2-year cycle of vendace in Lake Pyhäjärvi is the asymmetrical food competition between age groups. The abundance of predators in the lake and the warming of the water after the hatching of larvae in spring together determine the final year-class strength of vendace.     

Population dynamics in two-patch environments: Some anomalous consequences of an optimal habitat distribution

The effect of dispersal on population size and stability is explored for a population that disperses passively between two discrete habitat patches. Two basic models are considered. In the first model, a single population experiences density-dependent growth in both patches. A graphical construction is presented which allows one to determine the spatial pattern of abundance at equilibrium for most reasonable growth models and rates of dispersal. It is shown under rather general conditions that this equilibrium is unique and globally stable. In the second model, the dispersing population is a food-limited predator that occurs in both a source habitat (which contains a prey population) and a sink habitat (which does not). Passive dispersal between source and sink habitats can stabilize an otherwise unstable predator-prey interaction. The conditions allowing this are explored in some detail. The theory of optimal habitat selection predicts the evolutionarily stable distribution of a population, given that individuals can freely move among habitats so as to maximize individual fitness. This theory is used to develop a heuristic argument for why passive dispersal should always be selectively disadvantageous (ignoring kin effects) in a spatially heterogeneous but temporally constant environment. For both the models considered here, passive dispersal may lead to a greater number of individuals in both habitats combined than if there were no dispersal. This implies that the evolution of an optimal habitat distribution may lead to a reduction in population size; in the case of the predator-prey model, it may have the additional effect of destabilizing the interaction. The paper concludes with a discussion of the disparate effects habitat selection might have on the geographical range occupied by a species.     

Modelling the population consequences of age- and sex-related differences in winter mortality in the oystercatcher, Haematopus ostralegus

A modelling approach is used to explore the effect of age and sex differences in oystercatcher ( Haematopus ostralegus ) winter mortality on population size, population structure and the population response to habitat loss or change. Increasing the mortality of first and second year birds reduced population size, but had very little effect on the proportion of the population that were adults. Increasing female mortality reduced population size and resulted in a male-biased population. A sex bias amongst birds of breeding age meant that there were fewer potential breeding pairs for a given population size, reducing the size of the breeding population and the breeding output. Increasing the mortality of one sex relative to the other reduced population size, even when mean adult mortality rates remained unchanged. Increasing the strength of density-dependent mortality in young birds caused a greater reduction in population size as habitat was lost. Increasing the strength of female density-dependent mortality had the same effect, even though male density-dependent mortality had been correspondingly reduced. Increasing density-independent or density-dependent winter mortality in one sex relative to another also exaggerated the disproportional effect of winter habitat loss on separate breeding subpopulations using the same overwintering area. These results suggest that any study of population dynamics should be aware of both age and sex differences in mortality. Conservationists should be particularly aware of any age or sex differences in diet or habitat use that may result in a differential response to environmental change.     

An exactly solvable model of population dynamics with density-dependent migrations and the Allee effect

We consider a single-species model of population dynamics allowing for migrations and the Allee effect. Two types of migration are taken into account: one caused by environmental factors (e.g., a passive transport with the wind or water current) and the other associated with biological mechanisms. While the first type is apparently density-independent, the speed of migration in the second one can depend on the population density. Mathematically, this model consists of a non-linear partial differential equation of advection-diffusion-reaction type. Using an appropriate change of variables, we obtain an exact solution of the equation describing propagation of travelling population fronts. We show that, depending on parameter values and thus on the relative intensity of density-dependent and density-independent factors, the direction of the propagation can be different thus describing either species invasion or species retreat.