Bioclimate and growth history affect beech lifespan in the Italian Alps and Apennines

When site factors reduce growth rates, tree lifespan tends to increase. This study investigates processes leading to such inverse relationship in Fagus sylvatica stands distributed along two elevation gradients, with an emphasis on climatic response, suppression periods, and growth trends. Dendrochronological records from old‐growth beech populations sampled at different elevations within two different bioclimatic regions (Alps vs. Apennines), were used to investigate factors that control tree lifespan. Differences between old‐growth (12) and nearby managed (15) stands were used to assess effects of silvicultural practices on maximum age. Logging reduced tree lifespan not only by removing older trees, but also by reducing the number of years beech individuals spent in the shaded understory. Tree lifespan and growth rates were affected by climate (spring–summer temperature) and were inversely related to one another along elevation gradients. The greatest lifespan was observed in old‐growth high‐mountain populations, and was related not only to slower growth due to a shorter growing season, but also to multidecadal periods of growth suppression during the initial development stages in the understory (i.e., slower growth rates at the youngest cambial ages). Past unfavorable climatic periods (in this case, the Little Ice Age) also helped increase tree lifespan. Using a linear model, we estimated a reduction in beech lifespan of 23 ± 5 years for each degree of warming. Basal area increment of trees with the maximum observed lifespan showed an increasing trend over time. Because growth of old (>300 years) trees has increased in the Alps, while it has recently declined in the Apennines, different bioclimatic regions can have opposite responses to global climatic change. In the next decades, if warming continues, beech lifespan could be reduced in the Alps by faster growth and in the Apennines by drought‐induced mortality.     

Spatial and altitudinal bioclimatic zones of the Italian peninsula identified from a beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) tree-ring network

A network of 24 beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) tree-ring chronologies has been developed for the Italian peninsula. Principal component and cluster analyses were used to identify geographical and altitudinal patterns of tree growth. Correlations and response functions were then applied to the main modes of tree-ring variability to uncover climatic signals. In a landscape occupied by humans for millennia, this approach provided a detailed quantitative ecological characterization of forest types. Altitude was significantly correlated with dendrochronological parameters. The Alps and northern Apennines could be distinguished from the central-southern Apennines. In central Italy, we recognized three different vegetation belts occupied by beech forests, from low- to high-elevation sites. Summer drought impacted beech growth with different intensity at different elevations, depending on the onset and duration of the growing season. Moreover, low-elevation beech forests showed a distinct late spring climate signal, which was opposite to that of high-elevation sites. The coherent geographical and ecological patterns of tree-ring variability suggest that dendrochronological networks help define bioclimatic zones and forest types.     

芦芽山阳坡不同海拔华北落叶松径向生长对气候变化的响应

为研究树木生长对气候变化的响应状况,选取芦芽山阳坡的3个海拔高度建立了华北落叶松(Larix principis-rupprechtii)的树轮宽度年表。年表的统计参数表明,3条年表均为研究气候信息的可靠资料。结果表明,芦芽山阳坡华北落叶松的径向生长和生长与气候的关系均具有海拔差异,中海拔(2440 m)和高海拔(2540 m)的华北落叶松具有相似年际生长变化,而二者均与低海拔(2330 m)华北落叶松的年际生长不同。低海拔华北落叶松的生长与4月平均气温和上一年11月降水量显著负相关,而中海拔和高海拔的生长均与上一年10月平均气温和6月降水量显著负相关。通过年表与气候因子之间的滑动相关分析发现,3个海拔高度华北落叶松生长与气候因子的关系均不稳定,生长与气温条件之间的显著相关关系是随着气温升高而出现的。气温的升高引起了华北落叶松生长与气温因子关系的海拔差异,以及径向生长的海拔差异。这一结果对于气候变化对植被垂直梯度影响的研究具有一定参考价值。     

长白山不同海拔树木生长对气候变化的响应差异

以长白落叶松和红松为例,探讨了长白山地区不同海拔树木生长对气候变化的响应。利用长白山北坡不同海拔4个长白落叶松样点和6个红松样点的树轮宽度资料建立差值年表,通过聚类分析、相关分析和响应分析等方法,研究树木生长特征及其气候响应。结果表明:两个树种年表的平均敏感度、树轮宽度指数的年际变率、信噪比等特征值较高,反映年表含有较强的环境信息。随海拔升高,长白落叶松年表特征值呈先下降后增加的趋势,红松年表特征值则呈先增加后下降的趋势。聚类分析将长白落叶松年表分成高、低海拔两类,红松年表分成高、中、低海拔三类。树木生长对气候响应存在海拔差异。高海拔长白落叶松生长受当年气温影响;低海拔长白落叶松生长对气候存在"滞后响应"。高海拔红松不仅受降水限制,且对气温有"滞后响应";中海拔红松不仅受气温限制,且对降水有"滞后响应";低海拔红松生长主要受气温限制。     

Mountain forest growth response to climate change in the Northern Limestone Alps

Key message

Growth response to climate differs between species and elevation. Fir is the most drought-tolerant species. The mountain forests are robust to the climatic changes until now.

Abstract

Alpine mountain forests provide a wide range of ecological and socio-economic services. Climate change is predicted to challenge these forests, but there are still considerable uncertainties how these ecosystems will be affected. Here, we present a multispecies tree-ring network of 500 trees from the Berchtesgaden Alps (Northern Limestone Alps, Southeast Germany) in order to assess the performance of native mountain forest species under climate change conditions. The dataset comprises 180 spruce, 90 fir, 110 larch and 120 beech trees from different elevations and slope exposures. We analyse the species with respect to: (1) the general growth/climate response; (2) the growth reaction (GR) during the hot summer in 2003 and (3) the growth change (GC) resulting from increasing temperatures since the 1990s. Spruce is identified as the most drought-sensitive species at the lower elevations. Fir shows a high drought tolerance and is well suited with regard to climate change. Larch shows no clear pattern, and beech remains unaffected at lower elevations. The unprecedented temperature increase of the last decades did not induce any distinct GC. The mountain forests of the Berchtesgaden Alps appear to be robust within the climatic changes until now.     

Climate Control on Tree Growth at the Upper and Lower Treelines: A Case Study in the Qilian Mountains,Tibetan Plateau

It is generally hypothesized that tree growth at the upper treeline is normally controlled by temperature while that at the lower treeline is precipitation limited. However, uniform patterns of inter-annual ring-width variations along altitudinal gradients are also observed in some situations. How changing elevation influences tree growth in the cold and arid Qilian Mountains, on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, is of considerable interest because of the sensitivity of the region’s local climate to different atmospheric circulation patterns. Here, a network of four Qilian juniper (Sabina przewalskii Kom.) ring-width chronologies was developed from trees distributed on a typical mountain slope at elevations ranging from 3000 to 3520 m above sea level (a.s.l.). The statistical characteristics of the four tree-ring chronologies show no significant correlation with increasing elevation. All the sampled tree growth was controlled by a common climatic signal (local precipitation) across the investigated altitudinal gradient (520 m). During the common reliable period, covering the past 450 years, the four chronologies have exhibited coherent growth patterns in both the high- and low-frequency domains. These results contradict the notion of contrasting climate growth controls at higher and lower elevations, and specifically the assumption that inter-annual tree-growth variability is controlled by temperature at the upper treeline. It should be stressed that these results relate to the relatively arid conditions at the sampling sites in the Qilian Mountains.     

Growth variation in Abies georgei var. smithii along altitudinal gradients in the Sygera Mountains, southeastern Tibetan Plateau

A network of nine Smith fir (Abies georgei var. smithii) ring-width chronologies was constructed from sites ranging in elevation from 3,550 to 4,390 m above sea level (a.s.l.) in the Sygera Mountains, southeastern Tibetan Plateau. High-elevation trees had lower growth rates than did low-elevation trees. The mean tree-ring series intercorrelation (RBAR) increased with elevation. Principal component analysis identified three elevation zones (around 3,600, 3,800, and >4,200 m a.s.l.) with distinctive tree-ring growth patterns. Five chronologies with elevation >4,200 m a.s.l. were highly correlated. Overall, the initiation of tree-ring growth in Smith fir is controlled by common climatic signals, such as July minimum temperature, across a broad altitudinal range. Precipitation was not a growth-limiting factor across stands. Regardless of differences in stand elevation, topographical aspect, and tree age, the radial growth of Smith fir trees was markedly similar in response to common climatic signals, perhaps as a result of the relatively high-elevation of these forests (above 3,550 m a.s.l.) and the abundant summer monsoon rainfall. In addition, radial tree growth along the altitudinal gradients was indicative of a recent warming trend on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau.     

Climatic signals in tree ring of Picea schrenkiana along an altitudinal gradient in the central Tianshan Mountains, northwestern China

Tree-ring samples of Picea schrenkiana (Fisch. et Mey) were studied along an altitudinal gradient in the central Tianshan Mountains, and ring-width chronologies were developed for three sites at different altitudes: low-forest border (1600–1700 m a.s.l.), interior forest (2100–2200 m a.s.l.), and upper treeline (2600–2700 m a.s.l.). Annual ring-width variations were similar among the three sites but variability was greatest at the low-forest border site. The statistical characters of the chronologies showed that mean sensitivity (MS) and standard deviation (SD) decreased with increasing elevation. In other words, the response of tree growth to environmental changes decreased with increasing altitude. To understand the differing response of trees at different elevations to the environmental changes, response function analysis was used to study the relationships between tree-ring widths and mean monthly temperature and total monthly precipitation from 1961 to 2000. The results showed that precipitation was the most important factor limiting tree radial growth in the arid central Tianshan Mountains, precipitation in August of the prior growth year played an important role on tree's radial growth across the entire altitudinal gradient even at the cold, high-elevation treeline site. It is expected that with increasing altitude air temperature decreased and precipitation increased, the importance of precipitation on tree growth decreased, and the response of tree growth to environmental changes decreased, too. This conclusion may be helpful to understand and research the relationship between climatic change and tree growth in arid and semiarid area.     

Sensitivity of French temperate coniferous forests to climate variability and extreme events (Abies alba,Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris)

Questions: (1) How do extreme climatic events and climate variability influence radial growth of conifers (silver fir, Norway spruce, Scots pine)? (2) How do elevation and soil water capacity (SWC) modulate sensitivity to climate? Location: The sampled conifer stands are in France, in western lowland and mountain forests, at elevations from 400 to 1700 m, and an SWC from 50 to 190 mm. Methods: We established stand chronologies for total ring width, earlywood and latewood width for the 33 studied stands (985 trees in total). Responses to climate were analysed using pointer years and bootstrapped response functions. Principal component analysis was applied to pointer years and response function coefficients in order to elucidate the ecological structure of the studied stands. Results: Extreme winter frosts are responsible for greater growth reductions in silver fir than in Norway spruce, especially at the upper elevation, while Scots pine was the least sensitive species. Exceptional spring droughts caused a notable growth decrease, especially when local conditions were dry (altitude<1000 m and SWC<100 mm for silver fir, western lowlands for Scots pine). Earlywood of silver fir depended on previous September and November and current‐year February temperature, after which current June and July water supply influenced latewood. Earlywood of Norway spruce was influenced by previous September temperature, after which current spring and summer droughts influenced both ring components. In Scots pine, earlywood and latewood depended on the current summer water balance. Local conditions mainly modulated latewood formation. Conclusions: If the climate becomes drier, low‐elevation dry stands or trees growing in western lowlands may face problems, as their growth is highly dependent on soil moisture availability.     

Patterns of drought tolerance in major European temperate forest trees: climatic drivers and levels of variability

The future performance of native tree species under climate change conditions is frequently discussed, since increasingly severe and more frequent drought events are expected to become a major risk for forest ecosystems. To improve our understanding of the drought tolerance of the three common European temperate forest tree species Norway spruce, silver fir and common beech, we tested the influence of climate and tree‐specific traits on the inter and intrasite variability in drought responses of these species. Basal area increment data from a large tree‐ring network in Southern Germany and Alpine Austria along a climatic cline from warm‐dry to cool‐wet conditions were used to calculate indices of tolerance to drought events and their variability at the level of individual trees and populations. General patterns of tolerance indicated a high vulnerability of Norway spruce in comparison to fir and beech and a strong influence of bioclimatic conditions on drought response for all species. On the level of individual trees, low‐growth rates prior to drought events, high competitive status and low age favored resilience in growth response to drought. Consequently, drought events led to heterogeneous and variable response patterns in forests stands. These findings may support the idea of deliberately using spontaneous selection and adaption effects as a passive strategy of forest management under climate change conditions, especially a strong directional selection for more tolerant individuals when frequency and intensity of summer droughts will increase in the course of global climate change.     

Tree growth–climate relationships of Juniperus tibetica along an altitudinal gradient on the southern Tibetan Plateau

The southern Tibetan Plateau forms the ecotone between forest areas and alpine steppes and thus, tree growth is expect to react sensitive to climate variability in this semi-humid region. We sampled 328 increment cores from 169 trees at two study sites at four elevations along altitudinal transects from 4,000 to 4,500 m a.s.l. to evaluate elevation-dependent tree growth–climate relationships of Juniperus tibetica. Standard dendrochronological statistical parameters like mean inter-series correlation (Rbar), expressed population signal as well as signal-to-noise ratio is not significantly correlated to elevation. Mean segment lengths and average growth rates of the tree-ring series increase with elevation. Correlation and response function analysis with available climate data indicate that elevation has no significant effect on tree growth–climate relationships. Instead, local tree growth is mainly driven by common regional climatic signals as it is also indicated by significant correlations between all chronologies over their common period of A.D. 1550–2010. Moisture variability during April–June has the highest impact on tree growth, even close to the upper tree limit.     

Climatic response of three tree species growing at different elevations in the Lüliang Mountains of Northern China

In this study, we present the results of a dendroclimatological investigation of three coniferous tree species, Larix principis-rupprechtii, Picea meyeri and Pinus tabulaeformis, growing along an altitudinal gradient at the Lüliang Mountains in Northern China. Totally five tree-ring width chronologies were developed to explore the climate-growth responses of these tree species. No obviously regular trend associated with the increase of elevation was found by comparing the statistical characteristics of the chronologies. Correlation analysis indicated that the chronologies from lowerest to middle-high sites (SZ, BWD, BDGL and BDGP, respectively) were highly correlated, and different species from the same site showed the highest correlation. Growth–climate analysis indicated that the chronology of Larix principis-rupprechti at the uppermost site near the tree line (XWS) did not exhibit a significant response to the seasonal climatic factors, whereas the other four lower chronologies were consistently and significantly influenced by both the mean temperature from May to July and the total precipitation from March to June, regardless of tree species and elevation. The similarity of the tree growth–climate relationships of different species growing at different elevations (except that from the tree line) suggests that the trees in this region can provide common regional climate information, and combinations of multiple species (RC) are more successful in reconstructing the climate data than single species. The results of this research are very crucial for the future forest management and dendroclimatological sampling strategy in the arid to semi-arid area of northern China.     

Climate Signals from Tree Ring Chronologies of the Upper and Lower Treelines in the Dulan Region of the Northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

The radial growth of trees In mountainous areas is subject to environmental conditions associated with changes In elevation. To assess the sensitivity of tree-ring growth to climate variation over a wide range of elevations, we compared the chronological characteristics of Sabina przewalskii Kom. and their relationships with climatic variables at the upper and lower treellnes In the Dulan region of the northeastern Qlnghal-Tlbetan Plateau. It was found that the radial growth in this region was controlled primarily by precipitation in late spring and early summer （from May to June）. In addition, a higher temperature from April to June could Intensify drought stress and lead to narrow tree rings. The significant similarity In climate-tree growth relationships at both the upper and lower treellnes Indicated that tree rings of S. przewalskU In this region are able to provide common regional climate information. However, the chronologies at the lower forest limits showed a higher standard deviation and more significant correlations with climatic factors, suggesting that the radial growth there was more significantly Influenced by climate variation. The first principal component of the four chronologies showed a common growth response to local climate. The second principal component showed a contrasting growth response between different sampling sites. The third principal component revealed different growth patterns In response to altitudinal variation. Further analysis Indicated that the precipitation In late spring and early summer controlled the growth of S. przewalskii on a regional scale and that other factors, such as mlcroenvlronment at the sampling sites, also affected the strength of the climatic response of tree growth.     

川西米亚罗林区不同海拔岷江冷杉生长对气候变化的响应

为分析青藏高原东缘半湿润区树木生长与气候关系随海拔变化的规律,于川西米亚罗林区分别在高、中、低海拔选取3个采样点,共采集132棵岷江冷杉年轮样芯,建立了最长达170a(1842-2011年)3个海拔高度的差值年表.岷江冷杉年轮指数与气候因子的相关分析表明:随海拔高度降低,温度与生长的负相关呈增加趋势.高海拔岷江冷杉径向生长与前—年冬季最低温呈显著正相关,中低海拔与当年春季均温、最高温和年均最高温呈显著负相关.低海拔岷江冷杉与当年4月降水呈显著正相关,随海拔升高降水与岷江冷杉生长的相关性降低.中低海拔岷江冷杉年表与4、5月帕尔默干旱指数(P DSI)呈显著正相关,表明在中低海拔存在春季干旱胁迫,抑制了岷江冷杉的生长.另外,大龄树木比小龄树木对气候变化的响应更敏感.     

Annual Growth Ring Patterns in Brachystegia spiciformis Reveal Influence of Precipitation on Tree Growth1

The availability of exactly dated tree‐ring chronologies is limited in tropical regions. However, these chronologies could contribute widely to studies of the influence of natural and human‐induced factors on tropical forests. We examine the potential for building a chronology based on three sites in the miombo woodland of western Zambia. Brachystegia spiciformis Benth., a dominant species from this vegetation type, is used. Response of the chronology to several climatic factors is examined. All specimens showed very clear growth rings, and cross‐dating between radii of a tree was successful for all trees. Site chronologies could be constructed after cross‐dating of growth ring series of individual trees. The mean growth ring curves of the three sites were significantly similar, allowing for the construction of a regional chronology. Correlation function analysis between the tree‐ring chronology and regional climatic variables revealed that climate at the core of the rainy season, in December and January, has an explicit influence on tree growth. Where precipitation and relative humidity in these months influence tree growth positively, temperature correlates in a negative way. Some 20 percent of the variance in the B. spiciformis tree‐ring chronology is accounted for by wet season rainfall. The successful cross‐dating and correlation between a tree‐ring chronology and climate demonstrated in this study indicate annual ring formation in B. spiciformis trees and sensitivity to climatic conditions.     

Tree growth response to drought and temperature in a mountain landscape in northern Arizona, USA

Aim To understand how tree growth response to regional drought and temperature varies between tree species, elevations and forest types in a mountain landscape. Location Twenty‐one sites on an elevation gradient of 1500 m on the San Francisco Peaks, northern Arizona, USA. Methods Tree‐ring data for the years 1950–2000 for eight tree species (Abies lasiocarpa var. arizonica (Merriam) Lemm., Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelm., Pinus aristata Engelm., Pinus edulis Engelm., Pinus flexilis James, Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws., Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca (Beissn.) Franco and Quercus gambelii Nutt.) were used to compare sensitivity of radial growth to regional drought and temperature among co‐occurring species at the same site, and between sites that differed in elevation and species composition. Results For Picea engelmannii, Pinus flexilis, Pinus ponderosa and Pseudotsuga menziesii, trees in drier, low‐elevation stands generally had greater sensitivity of radial growth to regional drought than trees of the same species in wetter, high‐elevation stands. Species low in their elevational range had greater drought sensitivity than co‐occurring species high in their elevational range at the pinyon‐juniper/ponderosa pine forest ecotone, ponderosa pine/mixed conifer forest ecotone and high‐elevation invaded meadows, but not at the mixed conifer/subalpine forest ecotone. Sensitivity of radial growth to regional drought was greater at drier, low‐elevation compared with wetter, high‐elevation forests. Yearly growth was positively correlated with measures of regional water availability at all sites, except high‐elevation invaded meadows where growth was weakly correlated with all climatic factors. Yearly growth in high‐elevation forests up to 3300 m a.s.l. was more strongly correlated with water availability than temperature. Main conclusions Severe regional drought reduced growth of all dominant tree species over a gradient of precipitation and temperature represented by a 1500‐m change in elevation, but response to drought varied between species and stands. Growth was reduced the most in drier, low‐elevation forests and in species growing low in their elevational range in ecotones, and the least for trees that had recently invaded high‐elevation meadows. Constraints on tree growth from drought and high temperature are important for high‐elevation subalpine forests located near the southern‐most range of the dominant species.     

Climate–growth analysis of Qilian juniper across an altitudinal gradient in the central Qilian Mountains, northwest China

In the context of global warming, it is of high importance to assess the influence of climatic change and geographic factors on the radial growth of high-elevation trees. Using tree-ring data collected from four stands of Qilian juniper (Juniperus przewalskii Kom.) across an altitudinal gradient in the central Qilian Mountains, northwest China, we compared the radial growth characteristics and climate–growth relationships at different elevations. Results indicated that there was little difference in the tree-ring parameters of the four chronologies. Correlation analyses both for unfiltered and 10-year high-passed data of monthly climatic variables and chronologies were presented to investigate the climatic forcing on tree growth, and results revealed that the correlation patterns were consistent among the four sites, especially for high-passed data. We employed the principal components analysis method to obtain the first principal component (PC1) of the four chronologies and computed the correlations between PC1 and climate factors. The PC1 correlated significantly with winter (November–January) temperature, prior August and current May temperature, and precipitation in the previous September and current January and April, indicating that tree growth in this region was mainly limited by cold winter temperature and drought in early growing season and prior growing season (prior August and September). However, the climate–growth relationships were unstable; with an increase in temperature, the sensitivity of tree growth to temperature had decreased over the past few decades. Considering the instability of the climate–growth relationships, climate reconstructions based on tree rings in the study area should be approached with more caution.     

The climate sensitivity of Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] in the southeastern European Alps

To investigate the potential of Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst) as a palaeoclimate archive in the southeastern European Alps, tree ring chronologies were developed from trees growing at two sites in Slovenia which differed in their ecological and climatological characteristics. Ring width, maximum latewood density, annual height increment and latewood cellulose carbon isotope composition were determined at both sites and the resulting time-series compared with and verified against instrumental climate data for their common period (AD 1960–AD 2002). Results indicate that ring width sensitivity to summer temperature is very site-dependent, with opposing responses at alpine and lowland sites. Maximum density responds to September temperatures, indicating lignification after cell division has ceased. Stable carbon isotopes have most potential, responding strongly to summer temperature in both alpine and lowland stands. Height increment appears relatively insensitive to climate, and is likely to be dominated by local stand dynamics.     

Abies spectabilis shows stable growth relations to temperature,but changing response to moisture conditions along an elevation gradient in the central Himalaya

A better understanding of growth-climate responses of high-elevation tree species across their distribution range is essential to devise an appropriate forest management and conservation strategies against adverse impacts of climate change. The present study evaluates how radial growth of Himalayan fir (Abies spectabilis D. Don) and its relation to climate varies with elevation in the Manaslu Mountain range in the central Himalaya. We developed tree-ring width chronologies of Himalayan fir from three elevational belts at the species’upper distribution limit (3750−3900 m), in the middle range (3500−3600 m), and at the lower distribution limit (3200−3300 m), and analyzed their associations with climatic factors. Tree growth of Himalayan fir varied synchronously across elevational belts, with recent growth increases observed at all elevations. Across the elevation gradient, radial growth correlated positively (negatively) with temperature (precipitation and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index, SPEI-03) during the summer (July to September) season. However, the importance of summer (July to September) temperatures on radial growth decreased with elevation, whereas correlations with winter (previous November to current January) temperatures increased. Correlations with spring precipitation and SPEI-03 changed from positive to negative from low to high elevations. Moving correlation analysis revealed a persistent response of tree growth to May and August temperatures. However, growth response to spring moisture availability has strongly increased in recent decades, indicating that intensified spring drought may reduce growth rates of Himalayan fir at lower elevations. Under sufficient moisture conditions, increasing summer temperature might be beneficial for fir trees growing at all elevations, while trees growing at the upper treeline will take additional benefit from winter warming.     

Species distribution models predict temporal but not spatial variation in forest growth

Bioclimate envelope models have been widely used to illustrate the discrepancy between current species distributions and their potential habitat under climate change. However, the realism and correct interpretation of such projections has been the subject of considerable discussion. Here, we investigate whether climate suitability predictions correlate to tree growth, measured in permanent inventory plots and inferred from tree‐ring records. We use the ensemble classifier RandomForest and species occurrence data from ~200,000 inventory plots to build species distribution models for four important European forestry species: Norway spruce, Scots pine, European beech, and pedunculate oak. We then correlate climate‐based habitat suitability with volume measurements from ~50‐year‐old stands, available from ~11,000 inventory plots. Secondly, habitat projections based on annual historical climate are compared with ring width from ~300 tree‐ring chronologies. Our working hypothesis is that habitat suitability projections from species distribution models should to some degree be associated with temporal or spatial variation in these growth records. We find that the habitat projections are uncorrelated with spatial growth records (inventory plot data), but they do predict interannual variation in tree‐ring width, with an average correlation of .22. Correlation coefficients for individual chronologies range from values as high as .82 or as low as ?.31. We conclude that tree responses to projected climate change are highly site‐specific and that local suitability of a species for reforestation is difficult to predict. That said, projected increase or decrease in climatic suitability may be interpreted as an average expectation of increased or reduced growth over larger geographic scales.