Selection on skewed characters and the paradox of stasis

Observed phenotypic responses to selection in the wild often differ from predictions based on measurements of selection and genetic variance. An overlooked hypothesis to explain this paradox of stasis is that a skewed phenotypic distribution affects natural selection and evolution. We show through mathematical modeling that, when a trait selected for an optimum phenotype has a skewed distribution, directional selection is detected even at evolutionary equilibrium, where it causes no change in the mean phenotype. When environmental effects are skewed, Lande and Arnold's (1983) directional gradient is in the direction opposite to the skew. In contrast, skewed breeding values can displace the mean phenotype from the optimum, causing directional selection in the direction of the skew. These effects can be partitioned out using alternative selection estimates based on average derivatives of individual relative fitness, or additive genetic covariances between relative fitness and trait (Robertson–Price identity). We assess the validity of these predictions using simulations of selection estimation under moderate sample sizes. Ecologically relevant traits may commonly have skewed distributions, as we here exemplify with avian laying date — repeatedly described as more evolutionarily stable than expected — so this skewness should be accounted for when investigating evolutionary dynamics in the wild.     

SOLVING THE PARADOX OF STASIS: SQUASHED STABILIZING SELECTION AND THE LIMITS OF DETECTION

Despite the potential for rapid evolution, stasis is commonly observed over geological timescales—the so‐called “paradox of stasis.” This paradox would be resolved if stabilizing selection were common, but stabilizing selection is infrequently detected in natural populations. We hypothesize a simple solution to this apparent disconnect: stabilizing selection is hard to detect empirically once populations have adapted to a fitness peak. To test this hypothesis, we developed an individual‐based model of a population evolving under an invariant stabilizing fitness function. Stabilizing selection on the population was infrequently detected in an “empirical” sampling protocol, because (1) trait variation was low relative to the fitness peak breadth; (2) nonselective deaths masked selection; (3) populations wandered around the fitness peak; and (4) sample sizes were typically too small. Moreover, the addition of negative frequency‐dependent selection further hindered detection by flattening or even dimpling the fitness peak, a phenomenon we term “squashed stabilizing selection.” Our model demonstrates that stabilizing selection provides a plausible resolution to the paradox of stasis despite its infrequent detection in nature. The key reason is that selection “erases its traces”: once populations have adapted to a fitness peak, they are no longer expected to exhibit detectable stabilizing selection.     

A test for the genetic basis of natural selection: an individual-based longitudinal study in a stream-dwelling fish

In addition to the well-studied evolutionary parameters of (1) phenotype-fitness covariance and (2) the genetic basis of phenotypic variation, adaptive evolution by natural selection requires that (3) fitness variation is effected by heritable genetic differences among individuals and (4) phenotype-fitness covariances must be, at least in part, underlain by genetic covariances. These latter two requirements for adaptive evolutionary change are relatively unstudied in natural populations. Absence of the latter requirements could explain stasis of apparently directionally selected heritable traits. We provide complementary analyses of selection and variation at phenotypic and genetic levels for juvenile growth rate in brook charr Salvelinus fontinalis in Freshwater River, Newfoundland, Canada. Contrary to the vast majority of reports in fish, we found very little viability selection of juvenile body size. Large body size appears nonetheless to be selectively advantageous via a relationship with early maturity. Genetic patterns in evolutionary parameters largely reflected phenotypic patterns. We have provided inference of selection based on longitudinal data, which are uncommon in high fecundity organisms. Furthermore we have provided a practicable framework for further studies of the genetic basis of natural selection.     

The danger of applying the breeder's equation in observational studies of natural populations

The breeder's equation, which predicts evolutionary change when a phenotypic covariance exists between a heritable trait and fitness, has provided a key conceptual framework for studies of adaptive microevolution in nature. However, its application requires strong assumptions to be made about the causation of fitness variation. In its univariate form, the breeder's equation assumes that the trait of interest is not correlated with other traits having causal effects on fitness. In its multivariate form, the validity of predicted change rests on the assumption that all such correlated traits have been measured and incorporated into the analysis. Here, we (i) highlight why these assumptions are likely to be seriously violated in studies of natural, rather than artificial, selection and (ii) advocate wider use of the Robertson–Price identity as a more robust, and less assumption‐laden, alternative to the breeder's equation for applications in evolutionary ecology.     

The prediction of adaptive evolution: empirical application of the secondary theorem of selection and comparison to the breeder's equation

Adaptive evolution occurs when fitness covaries with genetic merit for a trait (or traits). The breeder's equation (BE), in both its univariate and multivariate forms, allows us to predict this process by combining estimates of selection on phenotype with estimates of genetic (co)variation. However, predictions are only valid if all factors causal for trait-fitness covariance are measured. Although this requirement will rarely (if ever) be met in practice, it can be avoided by applying Robertson's secondary theorem of selection (STS). The STS predicts evolution by directly estimating the genetic basis of trait-fitness covariation without any explicit model of selection. Here we apply the BE and STS to four morphological traits measured in Soay sheep (Ovis aries) from St. Kilda. Despite apparently positive selection on heritable size traits, sheep are not getting larger. However, although the BE predicts increasing size, the STS does not, which is a discrepancy that suggests unmeasured factors are upwardly biasing our estimates of selection on phenotype. We suggest this is likely to be a general issue, and that wider application of the STS could offer at least a partial resolution to the common discrepancy between naive expectations and observed trait dynamics in natural populations.     

SELECTION AND EVOLUTION OF CAUSALLY COVARYING TRAITS

When traits cause variation in fitness, the distribution of phenotype, weighted by fitness, necessarily changes. The degree to which traits cause fitness variation is therefore of central importance to evolutionary biology. Multivariate selection gradients are the main quantity used to describe components of trait‐fitness covariation, but they quantify the direct effects of traits on (relative) fitness, which are not necessarily the total effects of traits on fitness. Despite considerable use in evolutionary ecology, path analytic characterizations of the total effects of traits on fitness have not been formally incorporated into quantitative genetic theory. By formally defining “extended” selection gradients, which are the total effects of traits on fitness, as opposed to the existing definition of selection gradients, a more intuitive scheme for characterizing selection is obtained. Extended selection gradients are distinct quantities, differing from the standard definition of selection gradients not only in the statistical means by which they may be assessed and the assumptions required for their estimation from observational data, but also in their fundamental biological meaning. Like direct selection gradients, extended selection gradients can be combined with genetic inference of multivariate phenotypic variation to provide quantitative prediction of microevolutionary trajectories.     

Fluctuating viability selection on morphology of cliff swallows is driven by climate

The extent to which fluctuating selection can maintain evolutionary stasis in most populations remains an unresolved question in evolutionary biology. Climate has been hypothesized to drive reversals in the direction of selection among different time periods and may also be responsible for intense episodic selection caused by rare weather events. We measured viability selection associated with morphological traits in cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota) in western Nebraska, USA, over a 14‐year period following a rare climatic event. We used mark‐recapture to estimate the annual apparent survival of over 26 000 individuals whose wing, tail, tarsus and bill had been measured. The fitness functions associated with tarsus length and bill dimensions fluctuated depending on annual climate conditions on the birds' breeding grounds. The oscillating yearly patterns may have slowed and occasionally reversed directional change in trait trajectories, although there was a trend over time for all traits except tarsus to increase in size. The net positive directional selection on some traits, despite periodic climate‐associated fluctuations, suggests that cliff swallow morphology in the population is likely to keep changing and supports recent work contending that selection in general does not fluctuate enough to be an effective driver of stasis.     

Predicting evolutionary responses to selection on polyandry in the wild: additive genetic covariances with female extra-pair reproduction

The evolutionary forces that underlie polyandry, including extra-pair reproduction (EPR) by socially monogamous females, remain unclear. Selection on EPR and resulting evolution have rarely been explicitly estimated or predicted in wild populations, and evolutionary predictions are vulnerable to bias due to environmental covariances and correlated selection through unmeasured traits. However, evolutionary responses to (correlated) selection on any trait can be directly predicted as additive genetic covariances (cov_A) with appropriate components of relative fitness. I used comprehensive life-history, paternity and pedigree data from song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) to estimate cov_A between a female''s liability to produce extra-pair offspring and two specific fitness components: relative annual reproductive success (ARS) and survival to recruitment. All three traits showed non-zero additive genetic variance. Estimates of cov_A were positive, predicting evolution towards increased EPR, but 95% credible intervals overlapped zero. There was therefore no conclusive prediction of evolutionary change in EPR due to (correlated) selection through female ARS or recruitment. Negative environmental covariance between EPR and ARS would have impeded evolutionary prediction from phenotypic selection differentials. These analyses demonstrate an explicit quantitative genetic approach to predicting evolutionary responses to components of (correlated) selection on EPR that should be unbiased by environmental covariances and unmeasured traits.     

Variable selection on Eurosta's gall size,III: Can an evolutionary response to selection be detected?

Standard quantitative genetic theory predicts that when a trait is exposed to selection, the between-generation change in the phenotypic mean, Δz?_i, will be equal to the product of the trait's heritability and the selection differential, h²S. By extension, this theory implies that if a number of replicate populations are exposed to varying intensities of selection, the between-generation changes in means should covary with the selection differential applied. This relationship offers an opportunity for a statistical test to detect evolutionary change when selection is measured in replicate populations. If an evolutionary response to phenotypic selection occurs, the regression of over S_i, where i indicates population, will have a positive slope. This statistical test was applied to data on the insect Eurosta solidaginis (Diptera: Tephritidae). The larvae of this fly induce galls on the stems of the host plant, Solidago altissima (Asteraceae). Previous work has shown that gall size is a heritable trait of the insect. Further, size-dependent attack on Eurosta larvae by parasitoids selects for larger gall size (Weis and Abrahamson, 1986). Long-term data on phenotypic selection in 16 populations across 5 generations were analyzed for selection response. Apparent upward evolutionary responses were seen in 2 of the 4 between-generation transitions. However, no response was seen when the analysis was applied to the cumulative change in gall size. Examination of the data suggested that some of the change in mean gall size was a developmental response to spatial and temporal variation in the environment. Non-linear developmental effects of environment, when combined with non-linear fitness functions, can induce a spurious selection response; these non-linear relationships can account for the apparent evolutionary change gall size found in the by-generation analysis. Thus, there is no reliable evidence for evolutionary change in Eurosta's gall size over the generations studied. Stasis of gall size in the face of ongoing selection may be due to counterbalancing selection on the gallmaker imposed by host plant resistance.     

DIRECT AND INDIRECT SEXUAL SELECTION AND QUANTITATIVE GENETICS OF MALE TRAITS IN GUPPIES (POECILIA RETICULATA)

Abstract.— The ornamentation and displays on which sexual attractiveness and thus mating success are based may be complex and comprise several traits. Predicting the outcome of sexual selection on such complex phenotypes requires an understanding of both the direct operation of selection on each trait and the indirect consequences of selection operating directly on genetically correlated traits. Here we report the results of a quantitative genetic analysis of the ornamentation, sexual attractiveness, and mating success of male guppies (Poecilia reticulata). We analyze male ornamentation both from the point of view of single ornamental traits (e.g., the area of each color) and of composite measures of the way the entire pattern is likely to be perceived by females (e.g., the mean and contrast in chroma). We demonstrate that there is substantial additive genetic variation in almost all measures of male ornamentation and that much of this variation may be Y linked. Attractiveness and mating success are positively correlated at the phenotypic and genetic level. Orange area and chroma, the area of a male's tail, and the color contrast of his pattern overall are positively correlated with attractiveness and/or mating success at the phenotypic and genetic levels. Using attractiveness and mating success as measures of fitness, we estimate gradients of linear directional sexual selection operating on each male trait and use equations of multivariate evolutionary change to predict the response of male ornamentation to this sexual selection. From these analyses, we predict that indirect selection may have important effects on the evolution of male guppy color patterns.     

EVOLUTIONARY ECOLOGY OF DATURA STRAMONIUM L. IN CENTRAL MEXICO: NATURAL SELECTION FOR RESISTANCE TO HERBIVOROUS INSECTS

It has been assumed that herbivores constitute a selective agent for the evolution of plant resistance. However, few studies have tested this hypothesis. In this study, we look at the annual weed Datura stramonium for evidence of current natural selection for resistance to herbivorous insects. Paternal half-sib families obtained through controlled crosses were exposed to herbivores under natural conditions. The plants were damaged by two folivorous insects: the tobacco flea beetle Epitrix parvula and the grasshopper Sphenarium purpurascens. Selection was estimated using a multiple-regression analysis of plant size and of damage by the two herbivores on plant fitness measured as fruit production for both individual phenotypes and family breeding values (genetic analysis). Directional phenotypic selection was detected for both larger plant size and lower resistance to the flea beetles, whereas stabilizing phenotypic selection was revealed for resistance to S. purpurascens. However, performing the same analyses on the breeding values of the characters revealed directional and stabilizing selection only for plant size. Thus, no agreement existed between the results of the two types of analyses, nor was there any detectable potential for genetic change in the studied population because of selection on herbivore resistance. The narrow-sense heritability of every trait studied was small (all <0.1) and not different from zero. The potential for evolutionary response to natural selection for higher resistance to herbivores in the studied population of D. stramonium is probably limited by lack of genetic variation. Natural selection acts on phenotypes, and the detection of phenotypic selection on resistance to herbivores confirms their ecological importance in determining plant fitness. However, evolutionary inferences based solely on phenotypic selection analyses must be interpreted with caution.     

Evolutionary potential of morphological traits across different life‐history stages

Despite accumulating examples of selection acting on heritable traits in the wild, predicted evolutionary responses are often different from observed phenotypic trends. Various explanations have been suggested for these mismatches. These include within‐individual changes across lifespan that can create important variation in genetic architecture of traits and selection acting on them, but also potential problems with the methodological approach used to predict evolutionary responses of traits. Here, we used an 8‐year data set on tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) to first assess the effects of differences among three nestling life‐history stages on the genetic (co)variances of two morphological traits (body mass and primary feather length) and the selection acting on them over three generations. We then estimated the evolutionary potential of these traits by predicting their evolutionary responses using the breeder's equation and the secondary theorem of selection approaches. Our results showed variation in strength and direction of selection and slight changes in trait variance across ages. Predicted evolutionary responses differed importantly between both approaches for half of the trait–age combinations we studied, suggesting the presence of environmentally induced correlations between focal traits and fitness possibly biasing breeder's equation predictions. Our results emphasize that predictions of evolutionary potential for morphological traits are likely to be highly variable, both in strength and direction, depending on the life stage and method used, thus mitigating our capacity to predict adaptation and persistence of wild populations.     

Rapid temporal change in the expression and age-related information content of a sexually selected trait

The expression of sexual signals is often phenotypically plastic and also evolves rapidly. Few studies have considered the possibility that proximate determination -- the pathway between genes and trait expression -- may also be subject to both phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary change. We examined long-term patterns in size, condition- and age-dependence, repeatability and heritability of forehead patch size, a sexually selected plumage trait in male collared flycatchers. We also estimated survival and sexual selection on the phenotypic value of the trait. Forehead patch size linearly declined during the 15 years, probably due to the significantly negative survival selection. In addition, the expression of genetic variation for the ornament apparently underwent an age-limited change, which implies a change in the information content of the signal to receivers. The persistent lack of condition-dependence makes phenotypic plasticity an unlikely explanation to our results. This raises the possibility of a microevolutionary change of both expression and proximate determination during the study period.     

Evolutionary quantitative genetics of nonlinear developmental systems

In quantitative genetics, the effects of developmental relationships among traits on microevolution are generally represented by the contribution of pleiotropy to additive genetic covariances. Pleiotropic additive genetic covariances arise only from the average effects of alleles on multiple traits, and therefore the evolutionary importance of nonlinearities in development is generally neglected in quantitative genetic views on evolution. However, nonlinearities in relationships among traits at the level of whole organisms are undeniably important to biology in general, and therefore critical to understanding evolution. I outline a system for characterizing key quantitative parameters in nonlinear developmental systems, which yields expressions for quantities such as trait means and phenotypic and genetic covariance matrices. I then develop a system for quantitative prediction of evolution in nonlinear developmental systems. I apply the system to generating a new hypothesis for why direct stabilizing selection is rarely observed. Other uses will include separation of purely correlative from direct and indirect causal effects in studying mechanisms of selection, generation of predictions of medium‐term evolutionary trajectories rather than immediate predictions of evolutionary change over single generation time‐steps, and the development of efficient and biologically motivated models for separating additive from epistatic genetic variances and covariances.     

适合度的相对性与路径依赖的自然选择

自然选择理论认为生物个体或者种群在进化的过程中, 其基因或者性状、行为策略的选择一定是能够提高其适合度或者达到某个可期的“目标”。然而, 随着某个突变基因或者性状特征、行为策略在种群中扩散, 其期望收益将随着其在种群中分布的密度变化或环境改变而发生改变, 这就是适合度景观的悖论, 即静态的、固定可期望的收益可能因此而不存在。基于动态而非静态适合度景观的概念, 我们提出路径依赖的自然选择概念。路径依赖的自然选择过程中, 一个突变的基因或表型在某种环境下随机产生, 但是该基因或表型在某些特定环境下会产生正反馈。尤其是在正反馈与随机漂变的共同作用下, 多条路径的演化就可能发生, 并且其路径的形成将同时受到其种群进化历史过程和空间特征分布等因素的强烈影响。而在不同路径下, 由于观测维度、角度和尺度的不同, 适合度意义将因此而存在不同。在此意义下, 自然选择更可能选择路径频率而不是适合度大小。基于上述概念, 我们借鉴现代物理学中复函数的方法, 来描述多重动力对物种形成或者生物特征、种群进化等路径依赖的演化过程, 以期为同域物种、隐存种形成以及生物多样性演化提供解释机制。     

Trade‐off between fecundity and survival generates stabilizing selection on gall size

Complex interactions within multitrophic communities are fundamental to the evolution of individual species that reside within them. One common outcome of species interactions are fitness trade‐offs, where traits adaptive in some circumstances are maladaptive in others. Here, we identify a fitness trade‐off between fecundity and survival in the cynipid wasp Callirhytis quercusbatatoides that induces multichambered galls on the stem of its host plant Quercus virginiana. We first quantified this trade‐off in natural populations by documenting two relationships: a positive association between the trait gall size and fecundity, as larger galls contain more offspring, and a negative association between gall size and survival, as larger galls are attacked by birds at a higher rate. Next, we performed a field‐based experimental evolution study where birds were excluded from the entire canopy of 11 large host trees for five years. As a result of the five‐year release from avian predators, we observed a significant shift to larger galls per tree. Overall, our study demonstrates how two opposing forces of selection can generate stabilizing selection on a critical phenotypic trait in wild populations, and how traits can evolve rapidly in the predicted direction when conditions change.     

Characterizing selection in black‐throated blue warblers using a sexual network approach

Our understanding of trait evolution is built upon studies that examine the correlation between traits and fitness, most of which implicitly assume all individuals experience similar selective environments. However, accounting for differences in selective pressures, such as variation in the social environment, can advance our understanding of how selection shapes individual traits and subsequent fitness. In this study, we test whether variation in the social environment affects selection on individual phenotype. We apply a new sexual network framework to quantify each male's social environment as the mean body size of his primary competitors. We test for direct and social selection on male body size using a 10‐year data set on black‐throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens), a territorial species for which body size is hypothesized to mediate competition for mates. We found that direct selection on body size was weak and nonsignificant, as was social selection via the body size of the males' competitors. Analysing both types of selection simultaneously allows us to firmly reject a role for body size in competitive interactions between males and subsequent male fitness in this population. We evaluate the application of the sexual network approach to empirical data and suggest that other phenotypic traits such as song characteristics and plumage may be more relevant than body size for male–male competition in this small passerine bird.     

Early diversification of sperm size in the evolutionary history of the old world leaf warblers (Phylloscopidae)

Sperm morphological traits are highly variable among species and are commonly thought to evolve by post‐copulatory sexual selection. However, little is known about the evolutionary dynamics of sperm morphology, and whether rates of evolutionary change are variable over time and among taxonomic groups. Here, we examine sperm morphology from 21 species of Old World leaf warblers (Phylloscopidae), a group of generally dull, sexually monochromatic birds, which are known to have high levels of extra‐pair paternity. We found that sperm length differs markedly across species, spanning about 40% of the range observed across a larger selection of passerine birds. Furthermore, we found strong support for an ‘early‐burst’ model of trait evolution, implying that the majority of divergence in sperm length has occurred early in the evolutionary history of this clade with subsequent evolutionary stasis. This large early divergence matches the early divergence reported in ecological traits (i.e. body size and feeding behaviour). Our findings demonstrate that rates of evolution in sperm morphology can change over time in passerine taxa, and that evolutionary stasis in sperm traits can occur even in species exhibiting characteristics consistent with moderate‐to‐high levels of sperm competition. It remains a major challenge to identify the selection mechanisms and possible constraints responsible for these variable rates of sperm evolution.     

Selection experiments and the study of phenotypic plasticity1

Abstract Laboratory selection experiments are powerful tools for establishing evolutionary potentials. Such experiments provide two types of information, knowledge about genetic architecture and insight into evolutionary dynamics. They can be roughly classified into two types: (1) artificial selection in which the experimenter selects on a focal trait or trait index, and (2) quasi‐natural selection in which the experimenter establishes a set of environmental conditions and then allows the population to evolve. Both approaches have been used in the study of phenotypic plasticity. Artificial selection experiments have taken various forms including: selection directly on a reaction norm, selection on a trait in multiple environments, and selection on a trait in a single environment. In the latter experiments, evolution of phenotypic plasticity is investigated as a correlated response. Quasi‐natural selection experiments have examined the effects of both spatial and temporal variation. I describe how to carry out such experiments, summarize past efforts, and suggest further avenues of research.     

When three traits make a line: evolution of phenotypic plasticity and genetic assimilation through linear reaction norms in stochastic environments

Genetic assimilation emerges from selection on phenotypic plasticity. Yet, commonly used quantitative genetics models of linear reaction norms considering intercept and slope as traits do not mimic the full process of genetic assimilation. We argue that intercept–slope reaction norm models are insufficient representations of genetic effects on linear reaction norms and that considering reaction norm intercept as a trait is unfortunate because the definition of this trait relates to a specific environmental value (zero) and confounds genetic effects on reaction norm elevation with genetic effects on environmental perception. Instead, we suggest a model with three traits representing genetic effects that, respectively, (i) are independent of the environment, (ii) alter the sensitivity of the phenotype to the environment and (iii) determine how the organism perceives the environment. The model predicts that, given sufficient additive genetic variation in environmental perception, the environmental value at which reaction norms tend to cross will respond rapidly to selection after an abrupt environmental change, and eventually becomes equal to the new mean environment. This readjustment of the zone of canalization becomes completed without changes in genetic correlations, genetic drift or imposing any fitness costs of maintaining plasticity. The asymptotic evolutionary outcome of this three‐trait linear reaction norm generally entails a lower degree of phenotypic plasticity than the two‐trait model, and maximum expected fitness does not occur at the mean trait values in the population.