Correlates of distribution and nesting success in a Welsh upland Eurasian Curlew Numenius arquata population

Capsule: Habitat structure and composition explained spatial variation in breeding distribution and nesting success in a declining upland Eurasian Curlew Numenius arquata population in North Wales.

Aims: To identify environmental correlates of Curlew breeding distribution, nesting success and change in distribution.

Methods: Thirty random 1?km squares stratified by historical population trend were surveyed for Curlew density and nesting success, and habitat- and predation-related variables in a landscape containing agriculturally improved farmland, and moorland that was partly protected and subject to grazing reductions for nature conservation. Analyses tested for associations between Curlew measures and environmental variables.

Results: Curlew breeding density declined by 29% between 1994 and 2008, and was highest in squares comprising a mixture of moorland and agriculturally improved farmland, and in squares with lower vegetation density and higher cover of Nardus stricta (characteristic of rough grazing). Nesting success was positively associated with cover of Trichophorum germanicum (characteristic of mire). Vegetation density was lower than average in squares with the highest Curlew densities, while in the protected area vegetation density was higher than average.

Conclusion: Habitat and vegetation variables influenced Curlew distribution and nesting success in North Wales, largely in line with previous results but with no evidence for predator-related influences. Habitat condition for Curlew in the protected area could probably be increased through targeted increases in grazing alongside the protection of priority habitats.     

Densities and dispersion of breeding Eurasian Hobbies Falco subbuteo in southeast England

Capsule Breeding Hobbies are more numerous in parts of southeast England than previously recognized, and in suitable habitat their breeding dispersion shows a regular pattern.

Aims To establish the density and breeding dispersion pattern of a population of Hobbies in southeast England.

Methods Surveys to locate every pair of Hobbies present were conducted in six study areas of between 48.0 and 201.2 km² in three counties in southeast England during 2005–10.

Results Each study area held between 7 and 21 pairs. Densities were higher than in previous studies conducted in Britain, at between 9.0 and 15.0 pairs per 100 km². Mean densities per unit area of non-developed habitat were also consistently higher than expected, at between 10.1 and 17.3 pairs per 100 km². The mean nearest known neighbour distances fell within the range 1.8–2.8 km. In all six study areas, pairs were regularly spaced. The majority (68.0%) of nesting and territorial pairs occupied sites in woodland.

Conclusions Breeding Hobbies are considerably more numerous in parts of southeast England than previously recognized, and numbers appear to be continuing to increase. Accurate population estimates for Hobbies require species-specific fieldwork.     

Reproductive success of Woodlarks Lullula arborea in traditional and recently colonized habitats

Capsule Set-aside schemes have allowed breeding Woodlarks to colonize farmland, but heathland and forestry habitats remain the stronghold.

Aims To determine which habitats provide the best conditions for breeding Woodlarks and whether a buffer effect is operating, with density increasing faster in the poorer quality habitat as the population grows.

Methods Habitat colonization was examined and breeding success compared among heathland, clear-felled and young conifer plantations, and farmland set-aside.

Results Woodlarks on heathland and forestry habitats had similar clutch sizes and nesting success, but clutch sizes may be lower on farmland. Heathland was recolonized when population density was low in forest habitats, while farmland was colonized when density was increasing, and areas close to forest were preferentially occupied. Woodlarks breeding on farmland preferred set-aside stubbles to other field types.

Conclusion Forestry and heathland habitats are similar in quality for breeding Woodlarks, with no evidence for a buffer effect. Farmland set-aside may be suboptimal but the area available is much greater than the area of forest or heathland, and could therefore make a significant contribution to the conservation of the Woodlark population. However, set-aside should not be seen as an alternative to the conservation of forest and heathland.     

Breeding ecology of the Eastern Great Reed Warbler Acrocephalus arundinaceus orientalis at Lake Kasumigaura,central Japan

CapsuleTwo populations of the Eastern Great Reed Warblers, one close to settlements and one far away, differed mainly in nest losses which were higher at the latter site.

Aims To compare the breeding ecology of two Japanese populations, and with breeding data from Polish sites.

Methods We studied two sites in 1996. The Seimei site comprises a natural reed-bed (Phragmites australis) (2.0 ha) c. 2 km from residential areas. The Sakura site occurs as smaller reed-bed (0.8 ha) close to residential areas. Field study comprised mainly nest searching and nest monitoring.

Results Breeding density, nest height, number of stems supporting nest, clutch size and brood size were not significantly different between sites. The proportion of nests built on reed stems standing in the water (60%) was significantly higher at the Seimei site (P < 0.001), and the warblers in this habitat experienced significantly higher nesting failure (P < 0.05). Predation was a principal cause of failure at both sites. Significantly more nests suffered from predation at Seimei (53%) than at Sakura (16%). Breeding density was higher at both sites compared with European populations but it fell within ranges of other Japanese populations. Mean first-egg date of first brood does not differ between our sites and Polish ones.

Conclusion The differences between the two Japanese populations and between Japanese and Polish populations were relatively small and were seen mainly in nest losses, breeding density and proportion of nests built over water.     

Breeding ecology and habitat selection of Merlin Falco columbarius in forested landscapes

Capsule: Long-term trends in Merlin Falco columbarius breeding performance remained stable during a period of extensive afforestation in Ireland, where Merlin predominantly select conifer plantations for nesting.

Aims: To determine breeding performance and habitat selection of Merlin in a landscape significantly altered by afforestation.

Methods: We compiled data on Merlin to determine long-term trends in breeding performance and to examine habitat selection in a country with one of the fastest rates of afforestation in Europe.

Results: Merlin predominantly nested in trees (99.5%; n?=?183 pairs), with a strong preference for conifer plantations, which accounted for over 12 times more nests than expected by random selection. Moors and heathland were strongly selected as land-uses adjacent to nest sites. Most nests were located within 10?m of the forest edge, and in forests aged between 31 and 40 years. Merlin showed positive selection for moors and heathland, peat bogs and natural grasslands within breeding territories, and breeding success was positively related to the proportion of these land-uses surrounding nests. Breeding was successful for 74% of nests (n?=?300), and mean productivity was 2.1 young per breeding attempt (n?=?265) between 1982 and 2014. Breeding parameters remained constant over the 33-year study period, despite an increase of more than 75% in forest cover during this time.

Conclusion: Merlin breeding performance showed no long-term effects of increased afforestation. Although Merlin predominantly nested in conifer plantations, the presence of nearby open suitable foraging habitats influenced nest site selection and breeding success. The nesting preference of Merlin makes them vulnerable to disturbance from forest operations, which requires mitigation.     

Nest-site selection and predation in Savi's Warblers Locustella luscinioides

Capsule Savi's Warblers preferred sites dominated by high and dense Juncus and Rubus with thick litter, and avoided pure reeds; predation was higher in sites with less litter.

Aim To describe nest-site selection and identify which habitat and nest features influence predation risk.

Methods Comparisons were made between habitat characteristics measured at nest-sites and random points, and between predated and successful nests.

Results Total vegetation cover, litter thickness, habitat type, undergrowth height and undergrowth cover, which were higher or denser at nest-sites, were the most important variables influencing the distribution of Savi's Warbler nests. Nests were most often predated in sites with low litter thickness.

Conclusion Savi's Warblers are dependent on the presence of dense low vegetation and litter for nesting, which should be maintained close to or within reed-beds for their benefit.     

Habitat preferences for Long-eared Owls Asio otus and Little Owls Athene noctua in semi-arid environments at three spatial scales

Capsule There is a relationship between owl numbers and the availability of the agri-forest patchwork.

Aims To model habitat preferences at three different scales of two predators largely neglected within the framework of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) studies.

Methods We studied habitat preferences of Long-eared Owls and Little Owls by comparing habitat composition around 28 and 78 occupied territories respectively with 55 non-occupied territories in Alicante (eastern Spain). Generalized linear models were used to examine patterns of habitat preference at three different spatial scales: nest-site, home range and landscape.

Results At the nest-site scale, Long-eared Owls preferred wooded areas with few paved roads while Little Owls preferred arid plantations. Furthermore, the probability of finding an occupied territory increased with the proximity of another occupied territory in the surroundings. The home range scale models mirror the feeding requirements of the owls. Thus, Long-eared Owls occupied areas with high percentages of forest, arid plantations, edges between these two land uses, short distances between nests, with presence of conspecifics and little human disturbance. Little Owls occupied arid plantations with high availability of linear structures and the proximity of villages. At the landscape scale, Long-eared Owls eluded extensive forests, and Little Owls preferred arid plantations.

Conclusions We suggest a hierarchical process of habitat selection for both owls regarding fitting trophic resources at the broadest scales and adequate sites for breeding and roosting at the smallest scale. EIA studies must consider that protecting small areas around single nests may not be an efficient conservation option compared with preserving clusters of territories for both species.     

Disentangling the drivers of Black-bellied Sandgrouse Pterocles orientalis nesting habitat use in a Mediterranean arid environment

ABSTRACT

Capsule: Nest site selection of Black-bellied Sandgrouse Pterocles orientalis in an Algerian arid environment is dictated by a combination of topography, human presence, landscape and space.

Aims: To disentangle the drivers affecting Black-bellied Sandgrouse nest habitat use in an Algerian arid environment.

Methods: We used data on a series of topographic, anthropogenic, landscape and space variables, to identify the predictors of the occurrence probability of Black-bellied Sandgrouse nests. These variables were measured at nests (n?=?33) and random points (n?=?33) within landscape plots of 250?m radius.

Results: The probability of a site being selected for nesting by Black-bellied Sandgrouse was negatively related to distance to the nearest cereal crops, but positively associated with the cover of natural water, cover of rocks, and distance to the nearest road. This probability was also high at elevations between 251 and 289?m.

Conclusion: From a practical perspective, it would be interesting to reproduce the same investigation in other Mediterranean arid environments to find out if this species follows a similar pattern of nesting habitat use. This would provide guidance for future conservation actions and inform appropriate habitat management for this species.     

Modelling the nesting-habitat of the Cinereous Vulture Aegypius monachus on a fine scale for conservation purposes

Capsule Nests of Cinereous Vultures were found to be located farther from roads, villages and the edge of large vegetation patches. They preferred large vegetation patches containing extensive Cork Oak cover on steeper slopes and with lower solar radiation. Less than 8% of the study area was predicted to be suitable for nesting.

Aims To generate a predictive habitat suitability map for the Cinereous Vulture's nesting-habitat on a fine scale for conservation applications within its breeding range.

Methods Habitat features of 43 nest-locations and random points were compared in order to identify nest-habitat selected in the region of the Hornachuelos Natural Park (Spain). A logistic regression approach was used to create habitat models.

Results Compared with random points, nests were found to be located farther from roads, villages and patch edges, and in large vegetation patches containing extensive Cork Oak cover on steeper slopes with lower solar radiation. The predictive map revealed that less than 8% of the study area had a greater probability of occupancy than 0.8.

Conclusions Most habitats in the study area are unsuitable for nesting suggesting that conservation of the best suitable areas is important. The fine-scale predictive map approach may be valuable in designating conservation priority areas.     

Breeding season habitat associations and population declines of British Hawfinches Coccothraustes coccothraustes

Capsule At both landscape and local scales, breeding persistence in a declining Hawfinch population was greatest where broadleaved woodland cover was high, while at a fine scale, nest sites were associated with openings in the woodland canopy.

Aims To assess which components of habitat are associated with Hawfinch occupancy at landscape (10-km), local (tetrad) and fine (nest) spatial scales, during a period of population decline and range contraction.

Methods Bird Atlas 2008–11 data were used to determine areas of Hawfinch loss and persistence over 20 years. Current habitat was measured and compared to look for correlates that helped explain the differing status at both 10-km and tetrad scales. Fine scale habitat data collected at nest sites were compared with random locations to investigate within-wood nest site selection.

Results At both 10-km and tetrad scales, Hawfinch persistence is more likely where woodland cover is greater. Recent woodland management was less evident in tetrads where the species persisted. At the nest site scale, the only relationship detected was for nests to be close to canopy openings.

Conclusions Maintaining and increasing broadleaved woodland area is likely to benefit Hawfinch. Within woods, maintenance and creation of open areas may enhance nesting opportunities.     

Implications of nest-site limitation on density-dependent nest predation at variable spatial scales in a cavity-nesting bird

Nest‐site limitation may have different implications in the spatial distribution of breeding pairs depending on the availability of suitable habitat and the types of nest‐sites. Distribution of cavities suitable as nest sites may allow circumstantial aggregation or active choice of colonial nesting, which may have different implications on breeding performance through effects on breeding density, with variable costs and benefits depending on the consequences of intraspecific competition, social interactions and predation. We evaluated the effects of breeding density derived from nesting site limitation on breeding performance and predation at different spatial scales and considering multiple social, population and environmental limiting factors in the red‐billed chough Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax. The results indicate that variable breeding density may arise within the population depending on the availability and spatial distribution of nest‐sites. Nest‐site availability and distribution may also determine social breeding systems (isolated or aggregated) at variable densities, thus resembling differences found at different spatially distant populations under contrasting environmental conditions. Breeding performance was related to density‐dependent processes of population regulation, especially density‐dependent nest predation due to predator attraction to nest clusters. Results also indicate that predation pressure depend on density patterns at large scales. This suggest that predation may have important consequences on population dynamics of spatially structured populations depending on the strength of this kind of density dependence, which in turn may depend on habitat features affecting the prey but also the spatially variable guild of predators. Because habitat and nesting site availability may vary spatially depending on multiple human influences, understanding the strength and form in which breeding density and nest predation at different spatial scales may influence the size and persistence of populations can help to manage them more adequately.     

The effect of elevation and habitat cover on nest box occupancy and diet composition of Boreal Owls Aegolius funereus

Capsule: Diet composition of Boreal Owls Aegolius funereus was not affected by habitat cover, but it changed along the elevational gradient.

Aims: To assess the effect of elevation and habitat cover on nest box occupancy and diet composition of a central European population of Boreal Owls.

Methods: A Boreal Owl population was studied in the ?umava Mountains, Czech Republic, at elevations from 500 to 1300?m above sea level (asl), during 1984–2005.

Results: Boreal Owls occupied more frequently nest boxes above 600?m asl, but they did not clearly prefer any elevational band. Habitat cover did not affect the number of nesting attempts. There was also no relationship between habitat cover and diet composition. However, diet composition significantly changed along the elevational gradient. In particular, the proportion of alternative prey of Boreal Owls, i.e. birds and shrews Sorex sp., rose with increasing elevation. The proportion of voles Myodes and mice Apodemus in the diet decreased with increasing elevation. Among bird prey, the proportion of finches Fringillidae positively correlated with elevation.

Conclusions: Central European Boreal Owls did not show a clear preference for any habitat cover or elevational band, but the quality of the owls’ diet significantly decreased with increasing elevation.     

Which features of UK farmland are important in retaining territories of the rapidly declining Turtle Dove Streptopelia turtur?

Capsule Turtle Doves continue to show a strong population decline; territories were more likely to be retained in areas with more nesting habitat, and more suitable foraging habitat.

Aim To determine which features of farmland in England are important for retaining Turtle Dove territories

Methods Fifty-eight grid squares with recent records of territorial Turtle Doves were resurveyed, and squares retaining Turtle Dove territories compared with those from which Turtle Doves had been lost.

Results Turtle Dove territories were detected in 48% of squares resurveyed. When correcting for the 70% detection rate of the survey methodology, territories were present in 66% of squares surveyed suggesting a 34% decline over a 2-year period. Established scrub and hedgerows?>?4 m tall positively influenced Turtle Dove presence and abundance, as did standing water. Bare ground and fallow had positive effects on Turtle Dove abundance whereas grazed land negatively impacted abundance.

Conclusion The positive effects of area of established scrub and volume of large hedgerows are likely to represent a declining density of birds selecting the best quality nest sites. We suggest instead that foraging habitat may be limiting distribution.     

Factors influencing patch occupancy and within‐patch habitat use in an apparently stable population of Willow Tits Poecile montanus kleinschmidti in Britain

Capsule Birds selected younger woodland patches with fewer conifers and higher soil moisture content; within these patches, they selected areas with higher vegetation cover at 2–4 m, and less bracken.

Aims For an apparently stable population, to investigate habitat differences between occupied and unoccupied woodland patches and habitat selection within occupied woodlands.

Methods We surveyed woodland patches for breeding Willow Tits in April 2006 in an area with an apparently stable population. Habitat was measured at points spread throughout each woodland patch and at points where Willow Tits were located. We compared habitat between occupied and unoccupied sites. In addition, within occupied sites, we examined habitat differences between Willow Tit locations and the points spread throughout the wood.

Results We surveyed 65 woodland patches, of which 29 were occupied. Willow Tits were more likely to be found in deciduous woodland that was younger and had higher levels of soil moisture. Probability of occupancy fell from 60% for woods aged 20–25 years to only around 15–30% for woods aged over 80 years. Within occupied woods, Willow Tits were more likely to be found in areas with more vegetation cover at the 2–4 m level and in areas with less bracken.

Conclusions Habitat management for Willow Tits should involve provision of young woodland patches with moist soils. Changes to the age structure and/or the soil moisture content of woods may be implicated in the dramatic decline of Willow Tits in Britain.     

Predation and infanticide influence ideal free choice by a parrot occupying heterogeneous tropical habitats

The ideal free distribution (IFD) predicts that organisms will disperse to sites that maximize their fitness based on availability of resources. Habitat heterogeneity underlies resource variation and influences spatial variation in demography and the distribution of populations. We relate nest site productivity at multiple scales measured over a decade to habitat quality in a box-nesting population of Forpus passerinus (green-rumped parrotlets) in Venezuela to examine critical IFD assumptions. Variation in reproductive success at the local population and neighborhood scales had a much larger influence on productivity (fledglings per nest box per year) than nest site or female identity. Habitat features were reliable cues of nest site quality. Nest sites with less vegetative cover produced greater numbers of fledglings than sites with more cover. However, there was also a competitive cost to nesting in high-quality, low-vegetative cover nest boxes, as these sites experienced the most infanticide events. In the lowland local population, water depth and cover surrounding nest sites were related with F. passerinus productivity. Low vegetative cover and deeper water were associated with lower predation rates, suggesting that predation could be a primary factor driving habitat selection patterns. Parrotlets also demonstrated directional dispersal. Pairs that changed nest sites were more likely to disperse from poor-quality nest sites to high-quality nest sites rather than vice versa, and juveniles were more likely to disperse to, or remain in, the more productive of the two local populations. Parrotlets exhibited three characteristics fundamental to the IFD: habitat heterogeneity within and between local populations, reliable habitat cues to productivity, and active dispersal to sites of higher fitness.     

Breeding density,habitat selection and reproductive rates of the Peregrine Falcon Falco peregrinus in Álava (northern Spain)

A population of 33–35 pairs of Peregrine Falcon in álava (north Spain) was studied with the aim of assessing the habitat attributes that influence breeding density, habitat selection and breeding success. A strong relationship was found between density of the species in each UTM (Universal Transverse Mercator) square of 10 × 10 km and cliff availability. Habitat selection was analysed by comparing 15 variables in 33 occupied and 25 unoccupied cliffs located at least 2 km from the nearest Peregrine pair. Significant differences were found in five variables: cliff dominance, distance to the nearest Golden Eagle Aquila chrysaetos nesting cliff, steepness and altitude (all showing larger values in occupied cliffs), and cliff orientation, with occupied cliffs facing preferably south and east. Orientation, dominance and distance to the nearest Golden Eagle pair, and the distance to the nearest Eagle Owl Bubo bubo nesting cliff, were included in a discriminant analysis which classified 82.76% of the cliffs correctly. The productivity of the studied population was 1.44 young/territorial pair (n = 45), and no consistent relationship was found between breeding success and habitat variables.     

Breeding biology of the endangered Dupont’s Lark Chersophilus duponti in two separate Spanish shrub-steppes

Capsule: The Dupont’s Lark Chersophilus duponti in Iberia has relatively high breeding success in both core and fragmented habitats, so population declines are more likely to be the result of low juvenile or adult survival.

Aims: To measure important aspects of the reproductive biology of one of the most endangered and least known larks: the Dupont’s Lark C. duponti.

Methods: We monitored 36 nests in 2 Spanish shrub-steppes, one holding one of the largest European populations (250 pairs) and one composed by fragmented habitat patches holding a smaller population (50 pairs).

Results: The breeding season went from late-March to early July. Overall mean (±sd) clutch size was 3.47?±?0.56, and the number of fledglings per successful nest was 3.0?±?1.15. Mean nestling period was short (8.2 days). Nests showed similar daily survival rate during the incubation period (0.9750?±?0.0110) as during the nestling period (0.9545?±?0.0168), with a mean breeding success of 50%. Predation was the main cause of complete nest failure (83.3% of failed nests in both localities).

Conclusion: Breeding parameters did show no significant variation between populations. Breeding success in both sites was generally higher than recorded in previous studies of this and most other lark species, which suggests that breeding success does not compromise long-term viability of these populations. The decline of the studied populations should be explained by other causes, such as a general decrease in habitat quality, habitat loss or habitat fragmentation.     

Nest and foraging‐site selection in Yellowhammers Emberiza citrinella: implications for chick provisioning

Capsule Vegetation structure and invertebrate abundance interact to influence both foraging sites and nestling provisioning rate; when invertebrate availability is low, adults may take greater risks to provide food for their young.

Aims To investigate nesting and foraging ecology in a declining farmland bird whose fledging success is influenced by the availability of invertebrate prey suitable for feeding to offspring, and where perceived predation risk during foraging can be mediated by vegetation structure.

Methods Provisioning rates of adult Yellowhammers feeding nestlings were measured at nests on arable farmland. Foraging sites were compared with control sites of both the same and different microhabitats; provisioning rate was related to habitat features of foraging‐sites.

Results Foraging sites had low vegetation density, probably enhancing detection of predators, or high invertebrate abundance at high vegetation density. Parental provisioning rate decreased with increasing vegetation cover at foraging sites with high invertebrate abundance; conversely, where invertebrate abundance was low, provisioning rate increased with increasing vegetation cover.

Conclusions Vegetation structure at foraging sites suggests that a trade‐off between predator detection and prey availability influences foraging site selection in Yellowhammers. Associations between parental provisioning rate and vegetation variables suggest that where invertebrate abundance is high birds increase time spent scanning for predators at higher vegetation densities; however, when prey are scarce, adults may take more risks to provide food for their young.     

The importance of social information in breeding site selection increases with population size in the Eurasian Griffon Vulture Gyps fulvus

Animals can select breeding sites using non‐social information (habitat characteristics) and social information (conspecific presence or abundance). The availability of both types of information is expected to vary over time during the colonization of a new area, conditioning their use by colonizers. However, if and how both types of information are exploited during the colonization process remains unclear. We hypothesized that non‐social information should be predominant at the beginning of a colonization episode (when conspecific presence is low) and that social information should gain in importance as the colonization progresses. We tested this hypothesis by studying habitat selection by the Griffon Vulture Gyps fulvus, a long‐lived colonial raptor, during a natural colonization process spanning 40 years. In NW Spain, the population showed a sharp increase from 15 breeding pairs in three colonies in the 1970s to 586 breeding pairs in 120 colonies in 2008, expanding its range from 90 km² in the 1970s to 6403 km² in 2008, with directions of expansion following areas rich in nesting cliffs. The main determinants of habitat selection varied over time. Livestock density and the characteristics of nesting cliffs were the main predictors of settlement at the onset of colonization. Breeding density of conspecifics increased its importance over time, having the greatest relative weight in habitat selection later in the colonization process. Our results indicated a prevalent use of non‐social information during the early stages of the colonization and an increasing role of social information as the expansion progressed.     

Waterfowl distribution and productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region of Canada: tools for conservation planning

Species conservation requires an understanding of the factors and interactions affecting species distribution and behavior, habitat availability and use, and corresponding vital rates at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Opportunities to investigate these relationships across broad geographic regions are rare. We combined long-term waterfowl population surveys, and studies of habitat use and breeding success, to develop models that identify and incorporate these interactions for upland-nesting waterfowl in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of Canada. Specifically, we used data from the annual Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey (1961–2009) at the survey segment level and associated habitat covariates to model and map the long-term average duck density across the Canadian PPR. We analyzed nest location and fate data from approximately 25,000 duck nests found during 3 multi-year nesting studies (1994–2011) to model factors associated with nest survival and habitat selection through the nesting season for the 5 most common upland nesting duck species: mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), gadwall (Mareca strepera), blue-winged teal (Spatula discors), northern shoveler (Spatula clypeata), and northern pintail (Anas acuta). Duck density was highly variable across the Canadian PPR, reflecting positive responses to local wetland area and count, and amounts of cropland and grassland, a regional positive response to latitude, and a negative response to local amounts of tree cover. Nest survival was affected by temporal and spatial variables at multiple scales. Specifically, nest survival demonstrated interactive effects among species, nest initiation date, and nesting cover type and was influenced by relative annual wetness, population density, and surrounding landscape composition at landscape scales, and broad geographic gradients (east-west and north-south). Likewise, species-specific probability of nest habitat selection was influenced by timing of nest initiation, population density, relative annual wetness, herbaceous cover, and tree cover in the surrounding landscape, and location within the Canadian PPR. We combined these models, with estimates of breeding effort (nesting, renesting, and nest attempts) from existing literature, in a stochastic conservation planning model that estimates nest distribution and success given spatiotemporal variation in duck density, habitat availability, and influential covariates. We demonstrate the use of this model by examining various conservation planning scenarios. These models allow estimation of local, landscape, and regional influence of conservation investments and other landscape changes on the productivity of breeding duck populations across the PPR of Canada. These models lay the groundwork for the incorporation of conservation delivery costs for full return-on-investment analyses and scenario analyses of climate, habitat, and land use change in regional and continental population models.